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At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Coupled nitrogen and calcium cycles in forests of the Oregon Coast Range

Nitrogen (N) is a critical limiting nutrient that regulates plant productivity and the cycling of other essential elements in forests. We measured foliar and soil nutrients in 22 young Douglas-fir stands in the Oregon Coast Range to examine patterns of nutrient availability across a gradient of N-poor to N-rich soils. N in surface mineral soil ranged from 0.15 to 1.05% N, and was positively related to a doubling of foliar N across sites. Foliar N in half of the sites exceeded 1.4% N, which is considered above the threshold of N-limitation in coastal Oregon Douglas-fir. Available nitrate increased five-fold across this gradient, whereas exchangeable magnesium (Mg) and calcium (Ca) in soils declined, suggesting that nitrate leaching influences base cation availability more than soil parent material across our sites. Natural abundance strontium isotopes (87Sr/86Sr) of a single site indicated that 97% of available base cations can originate from atmospheric inputs of marine aerosols, with negligible contributions from weathering. Low annual inputs of Ca relative to Douglas-fir growth requirements may explain why foliar Ca concentrations are highly sensitive to variations in soil Ca across our sites. Natural abundance calcium isotopes (??44Ca) in exchangeable and acid leachable pools of surface soil measured at a single site showed 1 per mil depletion relative to deep soil, suggesting strong Ca recycling to meet tree demands. Overall, the biogeochemical response of these Douglas-fir forests to gradients in soil N is similar to changes associated with chronic N deposition in more polluted temperate regions, and raises the possibility that Ca may be deficient on excessively N-rich sites. We conclude that wide gradients in soil N can drive non-linear changes in base-cation biogeochemistry, particularly as forests cross a threshold from N-limitation to N-saturation. The most acute changes may occur in forests where base cations are derived principally from atmospheric inputs. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2016

Riparian soil development linked to forest succession above and below dams along the Elwha River, Washington, USA

Riparian forest soils can be highly dynamic, due to frequent fluvial disturbance, erosion, and sediment deposition, but effects of dams on riparian soils are poorly understood. We examined soils along toposequences within three river segments located upstream, between, and downstream of two dams on the Elwha River to evaluate relationships between riparian soil development and forest age, succession, and channel proximity, explore dam effects on riparian soils, and provide a baseline for the largest dam removal in history. We found that older, later-successional forests and geomorphic surfaces contained soils with finer texture and greater depth to cobble, supporting greater forest floor mass, mineral soil nutrient levels, and cation exchange. Forest stand age was a better predictor than channel proximity for many soil characteristics, though elevation and distance from the channel were often also important, highlighting how complex interactions between fluvial disturbance, sediment deposition, and biotic retention regulate soil development in this ecosystem. Soils between the dams, and to a lesser extent below the lower dam, had finer textures and higher mineral soil carbon, nitrogen, and cation exchange than above the dams. These results suggested that decreased fluvial disturbance below the dams, due to reduced sediment supply and channel stabilization, accelerated soil development. In addition, reduced sediment supply below the dams may have decreased soil phosphorus. Soil δ15N suggested that salmon exclusion by the dams had no discernable effect on nitrogen inputs to upstream soils. Recent dam removal may alter riparian soils further, with ongoing implications for riparian ecosystems.

Washington↗
USGS2022

Quantifying the stormwater runoff volume reduction benefits of urban street tree canopy

Trees in the urban right-of-way areas have increasingly been considered part of a suite of green infrastructure practices used to manage stormwater runoff. A paired-catchment experimental design (with street tree removal as the treatment) was used to assess how street trees affect major hydrologic fluxes in a typical residential stormwater collection and conveyance network. The treatment consisted of removing 29 green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica) and two Norway maple (Acer platanoides) street trees from a medium-density residential area. Tree removal resulted in an estimated 198 m3 increase in surface runoff volume compared to the control catchment over the course of the study. This increase accounted for 4% of the total measured runoff after trees were removed. Despite significant changes to runoff volume (p ≤ 0.10), peak discharge was generally not affected by tree removal. On a per-tree basis, 66 L of rainfall per m2 of canopy was lost that would have otherwise been intercepted and stored. Runoff volume reduction benefit was estimated at 6376 L per tree. These values experimentally document per-capita retention services rendered by trees over a growing season with 42 storm events. These values are within the range reported by previous studies, which largely relied on simulation. This study provides catchment scale evidence that reducing stormwater runoff is one of many ecosystem services provided by street trees. This study quantifies these services, based on site conditions and a mix of deciduous species, and serves to improve our ability to account for this important yet otherwise poorly constrained hydrologic service. Engineers, city planners, urban foresters, and others involved with the management of urban stormwater can use this information to better understand tradeoffs involved in using green infrastructure to reduce urban runoff burden.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2013

Accumulation of atmospheric sulfur in some Costa Rican soils

Sulfur is one of the macronutrient elements whose sources to terrestrial ecosystems should shift from dominance by rock-weathering to atmospheric deposition as soils and underlying substrate undergo progressive weathering and leaching. However, the nature and timing of this transition is not well known. We investigated sources of sulfur to tropical rain forests growing on basalt-derived soils in the Osa Peninsula region of Costa Rica. Sulfur sources were examined using stable isotope ratios (δ 34 S) and compared to chemical indices of soil development. The most weathered soils, and the forests they supported, are dominated by atmospheric sulfur, while a less weathered soil type contains both rock-derived and atmospheric sulfur. Patterns of increasing δ 34 S with increasing soil sulfur concentration across the landscape suggest atmospheric sulfur is accumulating, and little rock-derived sulfur has been retained. Soil sulfur, minus adsorbed sulfate, is correlated with carbon and nitrogen, implying that sulfur accumulation occurs as plants and microbes incorporate sulfur into organic matter. Only the lower depth increments of the more weathered soils contained significant adsorbed sulfate. The evidence suggests a pattern of soil development in which sulfur-bearing minerals in rock, such as sulfides, weather early relative to other minerals, and the released sulfate is leached away. Sulfur added via atmospheric deposition is retained as organic matter accumulates in the soil profile. Adsorbed sulfate accumulates later, driven by changes in soil chemistry and mineralogy. These aspects of sulfur behavior during pedogenesis in this environment may hasten the transition to dominance by atmospheric sources.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2000

Vegetation dynamics

A disturbance can be defined as 'any relatively discrete event in time that disrupts ecosystem, community, or population structure and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment' (Pickett and White 1985). Vegetation dynamics are a function of the temporal and spatial patterns of the disturbance regime. Natural disturbance regimes support the highest biological diversity; therefore, forest management practices that most closely mimic natural disturbances are expected to sustain the highest biological diversity within a given area (Denslow 1980). In southern forested wetlands, flooding is the dominant disturbance factor, thus plant species are usually distributed along a gowing-season flood gradient (Franz and Bassas 1977).

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

FLUXNET-CH4 synthesis activity: Objectives, observations, and future directions

This paper describes the formation of, and initial results for, a new FLUXNET coordination network for ecosystem-scale methane (CH 4 ) measurements at 60 sites globally, organized by the Global Carbon Project in partnership with other initiatives and regional flux tower networks. The objectives of the effort are presented along with an overview of the coverage of eddy covariance (EC) CH 4 flux measurements globally, initial results comparing CH 4 fluxes across the sites, and future research directions and needs. Annual estimates of net CH 4 fluxes across sites ranged from −0.2 ± 0.02 g C m –2 yr –1 for an upland forest site to 114.9 ± 13.4 g C m –2 yr –1 for an estuarine freshwater marsh, with fluxes exceeding 40 g C m –2 yr –1 at multiple sites. Average annual soil and air temperatures were found to be the strongest predictor of annual CH 4 flux across wetland sites globally. Water table position was positively correlated with annual CH 4 emissions, although only for wetland sites that were not consistently inundated throughout the year. The ratio of annual CH 4 fluxes to ecosystem respiration increased significantly with mean site temperature. Uncertainties in annual CH 4 estimates due to gap-filling and random errors were on average ±1.6 g C m –2 yr –1 at 95% confidence, with the relative error decreasing exponentially with increasing flux magnitude across sites. Through the analysis and synthesis of a growing EC CH 4 flux database, the controls on ecosystem CH 4 fluxes can be better understood, used to inform and validate Earth system models, and reconcile differences between land surface model- and atmospheric-based estimates of CH 4 emissions.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2022

Classifying freshwater salinity regimes in central and western U.S. streams and rivers

Freshwater salinization of rivers is occurring across the globe because of nonpoint source loading of salts from anthropogenic activities such as agriculture, urbanization, and resource extraction that accelerate weathering and release salts. Multidecadal trends in river salinity are well characterized, yet our understanding of annual regimes of salinity in rivers draining diverse central and western U.S. landscapes and their associated catchment attributes is limited. We classified annual salinity regimes in 242 stream locations through dynamic time warping and fuzzy c-medoids clustering of salinity time series. We found two dominant regimes in salinity characterized by an annual summer–fall peak or spring decline . Using random forest regression, we found that precipitation amount, stream slope, and soil salinity were the most important predictors of salinity regime classification. Advancing our understanding of salinity regimes in rivers will improve our ability to predict and mitigate the effects of salinization in freshwater ecosystems through management interventions.

Limnology and Oceanography Letters↗
USGS2026

Recent range expansion and documentation of a reproductive population of northern snakehead Channa argus (Cantor, 1842) in the Saint Francis River Drainage, Missouri

Northern snakehead Channa argus (Cantor, 1842) is an aquatic invasive fish species in the United States with first documented occurrence in the wild in the 2000s. Management efforts to control their populations in the eastern United States are ongoing. In the Mississippi River basin, limited resources have been allocated to control its distribution, after initial detection and rapid response in Arkansas were unsuccessful. Northern snakehead distribution in the Mississippi River basin was limited to Arkansas and Mississippi until 2019 when a single northern snakehead was detected on the southern border of Missouri in the Saint Francis River drainage, the furthest northern detection. Described here are additional northern snakehead detections following public reports and subsequent monitoring in the Mingo basin of the Saint Francis River drainage, a historical braided channel and floodplain habitat of the Mississippi River with intermittently flooded bottomland hardwood forests and wetlands, and other consistent aquatic habitats. These increasing captures document the recent range expansion of northern snakehead. Most of the 11,300 ha Mingo basin consists of Mingo National Wildlife Refuge and Duck Creek Conservation Area; these areas are protected aquatic ecosystems possessing sensitive species and serve as a potential example of prioritized areas for northern snakehead control efforts. Additionally, we highlight the significance of these detections in the Mingo basin which is connected via the Castor River water-control structure to the Upper Mississippi River and may facilitate further range expansion.

Missouri↗
USGS2009

Ignoring detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use overestimates regional terrestrial carbon sequestration

Land use change is critical in determining the distribution, magnitude and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon budgets at the local to global scales. To date, almost all regional to global carbon cycle studies are driven by a static land use map or land use change statistics with decadal time intervals. The biases in quantifying carbon exchange between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere caused by using such land use change information have not been investigated. Here, we used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS), along with consistent and spatially explicit land use change scenarios with different intervals (1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs and static, respectively), to evaluate the impacts of land use change data frequency on estimating regional carbon sequestration in the southeastern United States. Our results indicate that ignoring the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use can lead to a significant overestimation of carbon uptake by the terrestrial ecosystem. Regional carbon sequestration increased from 0.27 to 0.69, 0.80 and 0.97 Mg C ha −1 yr −1 when land use change data frequency shifting from 1 year to 5 years, 10 years interval and static land use information, respectively. Carbon removal by forest harvesting and prolonged cumulative impacts of historical land use change on carbon cycle accounted for the differences in carbon sequestration between static and dynamic land use change scenarios. The results suggest that it is critical to incorporate the detailed dynamics of land use change into local to global carbon cycle studies. Otherwise, it is impossible to accurately quantify the geographic distributions, magnitudes, and mechanisms of terrestrial carbon sequestration at the local to global scales.

Alabama, Georgia↗
USGS2010

Are patterns in nutrient limitation belowground consistent with those aboveground: Results from a 4 million year chronosequence

Accurately predicting the effects of global change on net carbon (C) exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere requires a more complete understanding of how nutrient availability regulates both plant growth and heterotrophic soil respiration. Models of soil development suggest that the nature of nutrient limitation changes over the course of ecosystem development, transitioning from nitrogen (N) limitation in ‘young’ sites to phosphorus (P) limitation in ‘old’ sites. However, previous research has focused primarily on plant responses to added nutrients, and the applicability of nutrient limitation-soil development models to belowground processes has not been thoroughly investigated. Here, we assessed the effects of nutrients on soil C cycling in three different forests that occupy a 4 million year substrate age chronosequence where tree growth is N limited at the youngest site, co-limited by N and P at the intermediate-aged site, and P limited at the oldest site. Our goal was to use short-term laboratory soil C manipulations (using 14 C-labeled substrates) and longer-term intact soil core incubations to compare belowground responses to fertilization with aboveground patterns. When nutrients were applied with labile C (sucrose), patterns of microbial nutrient limitation were similar to plant patterns: microbial activity was limited more by N than by P in the young site, and P was more limiting than N in the old site. However, in the absence of C additions, increased respiration of native soil organic matter only occurred with simultaneous additions of N and P. Taken together, these data suggest that altered nutrient inputs into ecosystems could have dissimilar effects on C cycling above- and belowground, that nutrients may differentially affect of the fate of different soil C pools, and that future changes to the net C balance of terrestrial ecosystems will be partially regulated by soil nutrient status.

Biogeochemistry↗
USGS2016

Elevated Rocky Mountain elk numbers prevent positive effects of fire on quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) recruitment

Quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) is the most widespread tree species in North America and has supported a unique ecosystem for tens of thousands of years, yet is currently threatened by dramatic loss and possible local extinctions. While multiple factors such as climate change and fire suppression are thought to contribute to aspen’s decline, increased browsing by elk ( Cervus elaphus ), which have experienced dramatic population increases in the last ∼80 years, may severely inhibit aspen growth and regeneration. Fires are known to favor aspen recovery, but in the last several decades the spatial scale and intensity of wildfires has greatly increased, with poorly understood ramifications for aspen growth. Here, focusing on the 2000 Cerro Grande fire in central New Mexico – one of the earliest fires described as a “mega-fire” - we use three methods to examine the impact of elk browsing on aspen regeneration after a mega-fire. First, we use an exclosure experiment to show that aspen growing in the absence of elk were 3× taller than trees growing in the presence of elk. Further, aspen that were both protected from elk and experienced burning were 8.5× taller than unburned trees growing in the presence of elk, suggesting that the combination of release from herbivores and stimulation from fire creates the largest aspen growth rates. Second, using surveys at the landscape level, we found a correlation between elk browsing intensity and aspen height, such that where elk browsing was highest, aspen were shortest. This relationship between elk browsing intensity and aspen height was stronger in burned ( r = −0.53) compared to unburned ( r = −0.24) areas. Third, in conjunction with the landscape-level surveys, we identified possible natural refugia, microsites containing downed logs, shrubs etc. that may inhibit elk browsing by physically blocking aspen from elk or by impeding elk’s ability to move through the forest patch. We did not find any consistent patterns between refuge elements and aspen size or canopy cover suggesting that natural refugia are not aiding in aspen recruitment and that all young aspen were susceptible to browsing. In much of their normal range, aspen are not growing to large size classes, which threatens the future of this iconic species and calls into question the ability of ecosystems to recover from mega-fires. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple interacting factors (i.e. fire and increased elk browsing) when considering aspen management and regeneration.

New Mexico↗
USGS2011

A multi-species framework for landscape conservation planning

 Rapidly changing landscapes have spurred the need for quantitative methods for conservation assessment and planning that encompass large spatial extents. We devised and tested a multispecies framework for conservation planning to complement single-species assessments and ecosystem-level approaches. Our framework consisted of 4 elements: sampling to effectively estimate population parameters, measuring how human activity affects landscapes at multiple scales, analyzing the relation between landscape characteristics and individual species occurrences, and evaluating and comparing the responses of multiple species to landscape modification. We applied the approach to a community of terrestrial birds across 25,000 km 2 with a range of intensities of human development. Human modification of land cover, road density, and other elements of the landscape, measured at multiple spatial extents, had large effects on occupancy of the 67 species studied. Forest composition within 1 km of points had a strong effect on occupancy of many species and a range of negative, intermediate, and positive associations. Road density within 1 km of points, percent evergreen forest within 300 m, and distance from patch edge were also strongly associated with occupancy for many species. We used the occupancy results to group species into 11 guilds that shared patterns of association with landscape characteristics. Our multispecies approach to conservation planning allowed us to quantify the trade-offs of different scenarios of land-cover change in terms of species occupancy.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2006

Spectral mixture analyses of hyperspectral data acquired using a tethered balloon

Tethered balloon remote sensing platforms can be used to study radiometric issues in terrestrial ecosystems by effectively bridging the spatial gap between measurements made on the ground and those acquired via airplane or satellite. In this study, the Short Wave Aerostat-Mounted Imager (SWAMI) tethered balloon-mounted platform was utilized to evaluate linear and nonlinear spectral mixture analysis (SMA) for a grassland-conifer forest ecotone during the summer of 2003. Hyperspectral measurement of a 74-m diameter ground instantaneous field of view (GIFOV) attained by the SWAMI was studied. Hyperspectral spectra of four common endmembers, bare soil, grass, tree, and shadow, were collected in situ, and images captured via video camera were interpreted into accurate areal ground cover fractions for evaluating the mixture models. The comparison between the SWAMI spectrum and the spectrum derived by combining in situ spectral data with video-derived areal fractions indicated that nonlinear effects occurred in the near infrared (NIR) region, while nonlinear influences were minimal in the visible region. The evaluation of hyperspectral and multispectral mixture models indicated that nonlinear mixture model-derived areal fractions were sensitive to the model input data, while the linear mixture model performed more stably. Areal fractions of bare soil were overestimated in all models due to the increased radiance of bare soil resulting from side scattering of NIR radiation by adjacent grass and trees. Unmixing errors occurred mainly due to multiple scattering as well as close endmember spectral correlation. In addition, though an apparent endmember assemblage could be derived using linear approaches to yield low residual error, the tree and shade endmember fractions calculated using this technique were erroneous and therefore separate treatment of endmembers subject to high amounts of multiple scattering (i.e. shadows and trees) must be done with caution. Including the short wave infrared (SWIR) region in the hyperspectral and multispectral endmember data significantly reduced the Pearson correlation coefficient values among endmember spectra. Therefore, combination of visible, NIR, and SWIR information is likely to further improve the utility of SMA in understanding ecosystem structure and function and may help narrow uncertainties when utilizing remotely sensed data to extrapolate trace glas flux measurements from the canopy scale to the landscape scale.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2026

Unprecedented burning in tropical peatlands during the 20th century compared to the previous two millennia

Tropical peatland wildfire incidence has risen in recent decades, driven by drainage for land use and intensified by severe droughts with global climate change. These disturbances have altered vegetation structure, disrupted ecosystem functioning, and increased carbon emissions, particularly in Southeast Asia. However, the long-term history and characteristics of wildfires in tropical peatlands remain largely unknown. Here, we compiled fifty-eight macro-charcoal records from peatlands across the tropics, ranging from lowland forested to montane peatlands, to assess millennia-scale changes and controlling factors of tropical peatland burning. We divided the datasets into four main sub-regions: Neotropical, Afrotropical, Indomalayan and Australasian ecoregions to explore regional variability. Tropical peatlands had high burning levels between 0 and 850 ce , followed by a relatively low and stable period until a marked increase during the 20th century. The general trend in tropical peatland burning follows changes in global temperature, and climate variables that control the length and severity of drought events have a notable influence on peat burning before 1900 ce . During the 20th century, regional differences were observed, with declining fire trends in the Neotropical and Afrotropical regions and increasing fire trends in the Indomalayan and Australasian regions. This difference is likely attributable to human activities, and such intervention is also evident in palm swamps and hardwood swamps under similar wet, weakly seasonal climates. With the increase in anthropogenic pressures on peatlands and greater climate variability, future wildfires in peatlands are likely to become more frequent and widespread across all tropical ecoregions. Conservation and sustainable land-use practices could be used to mitigate and control peatland burning and protect these carbon-rich sinks.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2012

Reoccurrence of 'Ōma'o in leeward woodland habitat and their distribution in alpine habitat on Hawai'i island

The endemic solitaire, 'Oma'o (Myadestes obscurus), is common in windward forests of Hawai'i Island, but has been historically extirpated from leeward forests. The last detections of 'Oma'o on the leeward side of the island were in woodland habitat on the western flank of Mauna Loa in 1978. 'Oma'o were detected in woodland habitat in relatively low densities during a 2010 forest bird survey of Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park. The source of the population is unknown. It is probable they originated from a documented but unsurveyed population of 'Oma'o in scrub alpine lava. Alternatively, the birds may have persisted undetected for nearly 35 years, or expanded from windward mesic forests on southeast Mauna Loa. There is no evidence 'Oma'o recolonized the wet mesic forests of leeward Mauna Loa. The 'Oma'o can occupy diverse native habitats compared to other species in the Hawai'i Myadestes genus, of which most species are now extinct. The connectivity of each population is not understood but we assume there are significant geographic, physiological, and behavioral barriers for scrub alpine and wet mesic forest populations. The expansion of 'Oma'o to leeward woodlands is encouraging as the species is Hawai'i Island's last native frugivore capable of dispersing small and medium sized seeds of rare angiosperms, and could have an important role in re-establishing ecosystem function.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Climate change and future water availability in the United States

The steady rise in global temperature as a result of human activity is causing changes in Earth’s water cycle. The balance of water stored within and moving between vapor, liquid, and frozen states in the water cycle is shifting, with consequences for water availability that include increases in drought, fire weather, flooding, and heavy precipitation, as well as cryosphere decline and sea-level rise. In this chapter of the U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Water Availability Assessment—2010–20, we provide an overview of climate-change observations and projections from Earth-system model simulations that relate to future water availability, from global and national climate assessments and from the published literature. Effects of climate change on primary water-cycle components are discussed in context of how global-scale hydroclimate drivers influence regional processes within the United States. Understanding the major climate drivers impacting the water cycle is crucial to predicting future changes in water availability and developing adaptation strategies to ensure human and ecosystem water supplies. First, we provide background information on the water cycle, the climate-model ensemble simulations developed to produce projections based on warming scenarios, and attribution and certainty levels. Tipping points, self-reinforcing feedbacks, cascading effects, and compound extremes are introduced. The framework of climatic impact drivers (CIDs) outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) is used to show primary drivers of physical change to the water cycle and to understand and predict changes in future water availability. Specific climate-change related observations and projections are discussed for water cycle components of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, streamflow, lakes and wetlands, ice and snow, and groundwater, as well as their implications for future water availability for humans and ecosystems. The chapter concludes with a synthesis discussion of three examples of complex regional-scale hydroclimate processes that influence water availability for populations in the United States, including (1) mountain and coastal precipitation, (2) aridification and drought, and (3) the influence of forest-cover change on terrestrial water-vapor recycling.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2006

Distribution of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, 2004

The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) proposed delisting the Yellowstone grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) in November 2005. Part of that process required knowledge of the most current distribution of the species. Here, we update an earlier estimate of occupied range (1990–2000) with data through 2004. We used kernel estimators to develop distribution maps of occupied habitats based on initial sightings of unduplicated females ( n = 481) with cubs of the year, locations of radiomarked bears ( n = 170), and spatially unique locations of conflicts, confrontations, and mortalities ( n = 1,075). Although each data set was constrained by potential sampling bias, together they provided insight into areas in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) currently occupied by grizzly bears. The current distribution of 37,258 km 2 (1990–2004) extends beyond the distribution map generated with data from 1990–2000 (34,416 km 2 ). Range expansion is particularly evident in parts of the Caribou–Targhee National Forest in Idaho and north of Spanish Peaks on the Gallatin National Forest in Montana.

Wyoming↗
USGS2008

An improved state-parameter analysis of ecosystem models using data assimilation

Much of the effort spent in developing data assimilation methods for carbon dynamics analysis has focused on estimating optimal values for either model parameters or state variables. The main weakness of estimating parameter values alone (i.e., without considering state variables) is that all errors from input, output, and model structure are attributed to model parameter uncertainties. On the other hand, the accuracy of estimating state variables may be lowered if the temporal evolution of parameter values is not incorporated. This research develops a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter (SEnKF) by combining ensemble Kalman filter with kernel smoothing technique. SEnKF has following characteristics: (1) to estimate simultaneously the model states and parameters through concatenating unknown parameters and state variables into a joint state vector; (2) to mitigate dramatic, sudden changes of parameter values in parameter sampling and parameter evolution process, and control narrowing of parameter variance which results in filter divergence through adjusting smoothing factor in kernel smoothing algorithm; (3) to assimilate recursively data into the model and thus detect possible time variation of parameters; and (4) to address properly various sources of uncertainties stemming from input, output and parameter uncertainties. The SEnKF is tested by assimilating observed fluxes of carbon dioxide and environmental driving factor data from an AmeriFlux forest station located near Howland, Maine, USA, into a partition eddy flux model. Our analysis demonstrates that model parameters, such as light use efficiency, respiration coefficients, minimum and optimum temperatures for photosynthetic activity, and others, are highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily-to-seasonal time scales. The SEnKF stabilizes parameter values quickly regardless of the initial values of the parameters. Potential ecosystem light use efficiency demonstrates a strong seasonality. Results show that the simultaneous parameter estimation procedure significantly improves model predictions. Results also show that the SEnKF can dramatically reduce the variance in state variables stemming from the uncertainty of parameters and driving variables. The SEnKF is a robust and effective algorithm in evaluating and developing ecosystem models and in improving the understanding and quantification of carbon cycle parameters and processes. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Ecological Modelling↗