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At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources

The response of stream periphyton to Pacific salmon: using a model to understand the role of environmental context

1. In stream ecosystems, Pacific salmon deliver subsidies of marine-derived nutrients and disturb the stream bed during spawning. The net effect of this nutrient subsidy and physical disturbance on biological communities can be hard to predict and is likely to be mediated by environmental conditions. For periphyton, empirical studies have revealed that the magnitude and direction of the response to salmon varies from one location to the next. Salmon appear to increase periphyton biomass and/or production in some contexts (a positive response), but decrease them in others (a negative response). 2. To reconcile these seemingly conflicting results, we constructed a system dynamics model that links periphyton biomass and production to salmon spawning. We used this model to explore how environmental conditions influence the periphyton response to salmon. 3. Our simulations suggest that the periphyton response to salmon is strongly mediated by both background nutrient concentrations and the proportion of the stream bed suitable for spawning. Positive periphyton responses occurred when both background nutrient concentrations were low (nutrient limiting conditions) and when little of the stream bed was suitable for spawning (because the substratum is too coarse). In contrast, negative responses occurred when nutrient concentrations were higher or a larger proportion of the bed was suitable for spawning. 4. Although periphyton biomass generally remained above or below background conditions for several months following spawning, periphyton production returned quickly to background values shortly afterwards. As a result, based upon our simulations, salmon did not greatly increase or decrease overall annual periphyton production. This suggests that any increase in production by fish or invertebrates in response to returning salmon is more likely to occur via direct consumption of salmon carcasses and/or eggs, rather than the indirect effects of greater periphyton production. 5. Overall, our simulations suggest that environmental factors need to be taken into account when considering the effects of spawning salmon on aquatic ecosystems. Our model offers researchers a framework for testing periphyton response to salmon across a range of conditions, which can be used to generate hypotheses, plan field experiments and guide data collection.

Freshwater Biology↗

Biocrust science and global change

Global environmental changes such as climate and land‐use change affect ecosystems worldwide, and this New Phytologist Virtual Issue brings together fundamental research questions and novel approaches associated with the study of biological soil crusts in the context of such shifts. In a changing world, organisms can display a limited set of responses that will determine their persistence over varied spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, organisms might tolerate the change – for example, via phenotypic plasticity – and remain present in local communities. Alternatively, organisms might shift or retract their range to match their historical niche, they may adapt to the directional selection pressures imposed by change, or they could be driven to local (and possibly global) extinction. Efforts to understand which of these responses particular plant species or assemblages will exhibit are necessary for predicting changes in ecosystem functioning and trophic interactions under global change scenarios, and for managing and supporting sustainable terrestrial ecosystems. Accordingly, the assessment of plant responses to global change has become a significant research focus. Despite this impressive effort, our understanding and combined work to measure the responses to global change for species and communities of nonvascular autotrophs, such as the cyanobacteria, lichens, and bryophytes that form biological soil crusts (Fig. 1), remain rare compared with the large focus on vascular plants (Fig. 2; Reed et al., 2016). Nevertheless, these nonvascular photosynthetic communities and their responses to change could have critical implications for determining ecosystem structure and function at the global‐scale (Elbert et al., 2012; Ferrenberg et al., 2017; Rodriguez‐Caballero et al., 2018).

New Phytologist↗

Perspectives on the future of host-microbe biology from the Council on Microbial Sciences of the American Society for Microbiology

Host-microbe biology (HMB) stands on the cusp of redefinition, challenging conventional paradigms to instead embrace a more holistic understanding of the microbial sciences. The American Society for Microbiology (ASM) Council on Microbial Sciences hosted a virtual retreat in 2023 to identify the future of the HMB field and innovations needed to advance the microbial sciences. The retreat presentations and discussions collectively emphasized the interconnectedness of microbes and their profound influence on humans, animals, and environmental health, as well as the need to broaden perspectives to fully embrace the complexity of these interactions. To advance HMB research, microbial scientists would benefit from enhancing interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research to utilize expertise in diverse fields, integrate different disciplines, and promote equity and accessibility within HMB. Data integration will be pivotal in shaping the future of HMB research by bringing together varied scientific perspectives, new and innovative techniques, and ’omics approaches. ASM can empower under-resourced groups with the goal of ensuring that the benefits of cutting-edge research reach every corner of the scientific community. Thus, ASM will be poised to steer HMB toward a future that champions inclusivity, innovation, and accessible scientific progress.

mSphere↗

Arsenic speciation and sorption in natural environments

Aqueous arsenic speciation, or the chemical forms in which arsenic exists in water, is a challenging, interesting, and complicated aspect of environmental arsenic geochemistry. Arsenic has the ability to form a wide range of chemical bonds with carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, and sulfur, resulting in a large variety of compounds that exhibit a host of chemical and biochemical properties. Besides the intriguing chemical diversity, arsenic also has the rare capacity to capture our imaginations in a way that few elements can duplicate: it invokes images of foul play that range from sinister to comedic (e.g., “inheritance powder” and arsenic-spiked elderberry wine). However, the emergence of serious large-scale human health problems from chronic arsenic exposure in drinking water has placed a high priority on understanding environmental arsenic mobility, toxicity, and bioavailability, and chemical speciation is key to these important questions. Ultimately, the purpose of arsenic speciation research is to predict future occurrences, mitigate contamination, and provide successful management of water resources.

Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry↗

Differential effects of temperature and salinity on growth and mortality of oysters (Crassostrea virginica) in Barataria Bay and Breton Sound, Louisiana

Temperature and salinity and their interaction exert a major control on the life cycle of the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica), affecting reproduction, development, growth, and mortality. Quantifying specific temperature and salinity relationships on oyster growth and mortality has however proven difficult, with data suggesting potentially region-specific responses. Legacy and recent data from field tray studies from public oyster grounds in Barataria Bay and Breton Sound were used to estimate growth and mortality rates as a function of temperature and salinity. Previous studies conducted in Barataria Bay and Breton Sound reported differences in growth and mortality between the basins. In the present study, environmental conditions were synchronized to compare growth and mortality between basins at similar combinations of temperature and salinity. Results indicate that when temperature and salinity are the same (synchronized), seasonal oyster growth and mortality rates still differ between Barataria Bay and Breton Sound. Given the same salinity and temperature conditions, differences in growth and mortality rates between estuaries may persist due to differences in other environmental conditions (i.e., food quality and composition, hydrology, site history, salinity variation) or localized genetic adaptations to environmental conditions.

Lousianna↗

U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy—A framework for understanding and responding to global change

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking. Since the passage of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the USGS has made substantial scientific contributions to understanding the interactive living and nonliving components of the Earth system. USGS natural science activities have led to fundamental advances in observing and understanding climate and land-cover change and the effects these changes have on ecosystems, natural-resource availability, and societal sustainability. Most of these major advances were pursued in partnership with other organizations within and outside the Department of the Interior. The inherent value of partnerships with other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies and natural-resource managers is emphasized in all aspects of the planning and implementation of this Science Strategy for the coming decade. Over the next 10 years, the USGS will make substantial contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change. The USGS will work with science partners, decisionmakers, and resource managers at local to international levels (including Native American tribes) to improve understanding of past and present change; develop relevant forecasts; and identify those lands, resources, and communities most vulnerable to global change processes. Science will play an essential role in helping communities and land and resource managers understand local to global implications, anticipate effects, prepare for changes, and reduce the risks associated with decisionmaking in a changing environment. USGS partners and stakeholders will benefit from the data, predictive models, and decision-support products and services resulting from the implementation of this strategy. This Science Strategy recognizes core USGS strengths that are applied to key societal problems. It establishes seven goals for USGS global change science and strategic actions that may be implemented in the short term (1–5 years) and the longer term (5–10 years) to improve our understanding of the following areas of inquiry: Rates, causes, and impacts of past global changes; The global carbon cycle; Biogeochemical cycles and their coupled interactions; Land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences; Droughts, floods, and water availability under changing land-use and climatic conditions; Coastal response to sea-level rise, climatic change, and human development; and Biological responses to global change. In addition to the seven thematic goals, we address the central role of monitoring in accordance with the USGS Science Strategy recommendation that global change research should rely on existing “…decades of observational data and long-term records to interpret consequences of climate variability and change to the Nation’s biological populations, ecosystems, and land and water resources” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007, p. 19). We also briefly describe specific needs and opportunities for coordinating USGS global change science among USGS Mission Areas and address the need for a comprehensive and sustained communications strategy.

Circular↗

Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series data catalog

In 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 10 initiated the Puget Sound Scientific Studies and Technical Investigations Assistance Program, which was designed to support research for implementing the Puget Sound Action Agenda. The Action Agenda was created because Puget Sound was designated as one of 28 estuaries of National Significance under section 320 of the Clean Water Act, and its overall goal is to restore the environment of the Puget Sound Estuary by 2020. The Southern Salish Sea Mapping Project was funded through the Assistance Program request for proposal process which also supports a large number of coastal-zone- and ocean-management issues, and includes the recommendations of the Marine Protected Areas Work Group to the Washington State Legislature. These recommendations include a Puget Sound and coast-wide marine conservation needs assessment, gap analysis of existing Marine Protected Areas and recommendations for action. Four areas with recently acquired National Ocean Service hydrographic data are included in the Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series (fig. 1), each to be published individually as USGS Open File Reports at a scale of 1:40,000. The map products display seafloor geoforms, substrate, and biotopes using the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard. This data catalog contains much of the data used to prepare the SIMs in the Southern Salish Sea Habitat Map Series. Other data that were used to prepare the maps were compiled from previously published sources (for example, sediment samples and seismic reflection profiles) and are not included in this data series.

Washington↗

USGS research on saline waters co-produced with energy resources

The United States energy industry faces the challenge of satisfying our expanding thirst for energy while protecting the environment. This challenge is magnified by the increasing volumes of saline water produced with oil and gas in the Nation's aging petroleum fields. Ultimately, energy-producing companies are responsible for disposing of these waters. USGS research provides basic information, for use by regulators, industry, and the public, about the chemistry of co-produced waters and environmentally acceptable ways of handling them.

Fact Sheet↗

National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands

Sandy beaches of the United States are some of the most popular tourist and recreational destinations. Coastal property constitutes some of the most valuable real estate in the country. Beaches are an ephemeral environment between water and land with unique and fragile natural ecosystems that have evolved in equilibrium with the ever-changing winds, waves, and water levels. Beachfront lands are the site of intense residential and commercial development even though they are highly vulnerable to several natural hazards, including marine inundation, flooding and drainage problems, effects of storms, sea-level rise, and coastal erosion. Because the U.S. population continues to shift toward the coast where valuable coastal property is vulnerable to erosion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a national assessment of coastal change. One aspect of this effort, the National Assessment of Shoreline Change, uses shoreline position as a proxy for coastal change because shoreline position is one of the most commonly monitored indicators of environmental change (for example, Fletcher, 1992; Dolan and others, 1991; Douglas and others, 1998; Galgano and others, 1998). Additionally, the National Research Council (1990) recommended the use of historical shoreline analysis in the absence of a widely accepted model of shoreline change. A principal purpose of the USGS shoreline change research is to develop a common methodology so that shoreline change analyses for the continental U.S., portions of Hawaii, and Alaska can be updated periodically in a consistent and systematic manner. The primary objectives of this study were to (1) develop and implement improved methods of assessing and monitoring shoreline movement, and (2) improve current understanding of the processes controlling shoreline movement. Achieving these ongoing long-term objectives requires research that (1) examines the original sources of shoreline data (for example, maps, air photos, global positioning system (GPS), Light Detection and Ranging (lidar)); (2) evaluates the utility of different shoreline proxies (for example, geomorphic feature, water mark, tidal datum, elevation), including the errors associated with each; (3) investigates bias and potential errors associated with integrating different shoreline proxies from different sources; (4) develops standard, uniform methods of shoreline change analysis; (5) examines the effects of human activities on shoreline movement and rates of change; and (6) investigates alternative mathematical methods for calculating historical rates of change and uncertainties associated with them. This report summarizes historical shoreline changes on the three most densely populated islands of the eight main Hawaiian Islands: Kauai, Oahu, and Maui. The report emphasizes the hazard from “chronic” (decades to centuries) erosion at regional scales and strives to relate this hazard to the body of knowledge regarding coastal geology of Hawaii because of its potential impact on natural resources, the economy, and society. Results are organized by coastal regions (island side) and sub-regions (common littoral characteristics). This report of Hawaii coasts is part of a series of reports that include text summarizing methods, results, and implications of the results. In addition, geographic information system (GIS) data used in the analyses are made available for download (Romine and others, 2012). The rates of shoreline change and products presented in this report are not intended for site-specific analysis of shoreline movement, nor are they intended to replace any official source of shoreline change information identified by local or State government agencies, or other Federal entities that are used for regulatory purposes. Rates of shoreline change presented herein may differ from other published rates, and differences do not necessarily indicate that the other rates are inaccurate. Some discrepancies are to be expected, considering the many possible ways of determining shoreline positions and rates of change, and the inherent uncertainty in calculating these rates. Rates of shoreline change presented in this report represent shoreline movement under past conditions and are not intended for use in predicting future shoreline positions or future rates of shoreline change.

Hawai'i↗

Avoidance of cold-, cool-, and warm-water fishes to Zequanox® exposure

Zequanox® is a biopesticide registered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the Canadian Pest Management Regulatory Agency for controlling dreissenid mussels with demonstrated selective toxicity. However, some research has indicated that Zequanox may impact the body condition and survival of some non-target species. We assessed avoidance behaviors of two species of cold-, cool-, and warm-water fishes to Zequanox at the maximum concentration allowed by the USEPA label (100 mg/L as active ingredient). Naïve, juvenile fish (n = 30 per species) were individually observed in a two-flume choice tank through which Zequanox-treated and untreated water simultaneously flowed in an unobstructed arena. Individual fish were observed during an untreated control period (20 min) and two Zequanox-exposure periods (20 min each). Treatment was alternated between arena sides to account for potential side bias in the test subjects. Positional data were collected and tabulated in real time with EthoVision® XT software. Zequanox concentrations and water quality properties (pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and specific conductance) were monitored during each trial. Analysis of treatment response was performed using a contrast within linear mixed-effects models. Our results indicate that Brook Trout, Lake Trout, and Bluegill avoided Zequanox-treated water, Yellow Perch were indifferent to Zequanox-treated water, and Lake Sturgeon and Fathead Minnow were attracted to Zequanox-treated water. These results combined with existing species sensitivity literature may help inform resource managers of potential treatment-related risks.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

Stable isotopes of transition and post-transition metals as tracers in environmental studies

The transition and post-transition metals, which include the elements in Groups 3–12 of the Periodic Table, have a broad range of geological and biological roles as well as industrial applications and thus are widespread in the environment. Interdisciplinary research over the past decade has resulted in a broad understanding of the isotope systematics of this important group of elements and revealed largely unexpected variability in isotope composition for natural materials. Significant kinetic and equilibrium isotope fractionation has been observed for redox sensitive metals such as iron, chromium, copper, molybdenum and mercury, and for metals that are not redox sensitive in nature such as cadmium and zinc. In the environmental sciences, the isotopes are increasingly being used to understand important issues such as tracing of metal contaminant sources and fates, unraveling metal redox cycles, deciphering metal nutrient pathways and cycles, and developing isotope biosignatures that can indicate the role of biological activity in ancient and modern planetary systems.

Book↗

Large-scale laboratory testing of bedload-monitoring technologies: Overview of the StreamLab06 Experiments

A 3-month-long, large-scale flume experiment involving research and testing of selected conventional and surrogate bedload-monitoring technologies was conducted in the Main Channel at the St. Anthony Falls Laboratory under the auspices of the National Center for Earth-surface Dynamics. These experiments, dubbed StreamLab06, involved 25 researchers and volunteers from academia, government, and the private sector. The research channel was equipped with a sediment-recirculation system and a sediment-flux monitoring system that allowed continuous measurement of sediment flux in the flume and provided a data set by which samplers were evaluated. Selected bedload-measurement technologies were tested under a range of flow and sediment-transport conditions. The experiment was conducted in two phases. The bed material in phase I was well-sorted siliceous sand (0.6-1.8 mm median diameter). A gravel mixture (1-32 mm median diameter) composed the bed material in phase II. Four conventional bedload samplers – a standard Helley-Smith, Elwha, BLH-84, and Toutle River II (TR-2) sampler – were manually deployed as part of both experiment phases. Bedload traps were deployed in study Phase II. Two surrogate bedload samplers – stationarymounted down-looking 600 kHz and 1200 kHz acoustic Doppler current profilers – were deployed in experiment phase II. This paper presents an overview of the experiment including the specific data-collection technologies used and the ambient hydraulic, sediment-transport and environmental conditions measured as part of the experiment. All data collected as part of the StreamLab06 experiments are, or will be available to the research community.

Book chapter↗

Integrating spatially explicit representations of landscape perceptions into land change research

Purpose of Review Human perceptions of the landscape can influence land-use and land-management decisions. Recognizing the diversity of landscape perceptions across space and time is essential to understanding land change processes and emergent landscape patterns. We summarize the role of landscape perceptions in the land change process, demonstrate advances in quantifying and mapping landscape perceptions, and describe how these spatially explicit techniques have and may benefit land change research. Recent Findings Mapping landscape perceptions is becoming increasingly common, particularly in research focused on quantifying ecosystem services provision. Spatial representations of landscape perceptions, often measured in terms of landscape values and functions, provide an avenue for matching social and environmental data in land change studies. Integrating these data can provide new insights into land change processes, contribute to landscape planning strategies, and guide the design and implementation of land change models. Summary Challenges remain in creating spatial representations of human perceptions. Maps must be accompanied by descriptions of whose perceptions are being represented and the validity and uncertainty of those representations across space. With these considerations, rapid advancements in mapping landscape perceptions hold great promise for improving representation of human dimensions in landscape ecology and land change research.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗

The effects of seasonal temperature and photoperiod manipulation on reproduction in the eastern elliptio Elliptio complanata

The eastern elliptio Elliptio complanata is a species of freshwater mussel common to streams and rivers of the Atlantic Coast. Egg fertilization, larval brooding, and glochidial release are reported to occur within a period of several weeks during early to midsummer. In this study, mussels were exposed to manipulated photoperiod and water temperatures to prolong the availability of glochidia for use in artificial propagation and research. Brooding mussels were collected from Pine Creek, Tioga County, PA, in late December and were housed in groups subjected to one of four environmental treatments: natural temperature and photoperiod, 6-wk delay in natural conditions, 12-wk delay in natural conditions, and natural temperature and photoperiod with a winter low of 10°C. Reproductive activity was monitored for 1 y. Mussels subjected to natural conditions released mature glochidia between 16°C and 19°C with a photoperiod of 15 h of light. Temperature and photoperiod delays of 6 and 12 wk delayed reproduction proportional to the treatment, and constant 10°C winter low temperatures slightly shifted the timing of glochidial release. Survival during the study was high (96%–100%). Data indicate that the seasonal availability of E. complanata glochidia can be extended 3-fold using photoperiod and temperature manipulation.

Journal of Shellfish Research↗

Chemicals of emerging concern in water and bottom sediment in the Great Lakes Basin, 2012: collection methods, analytical methods, quality assurance, and study data

In synoptic surveys of surface-water quality across the United States, a large group of organic chemicals associated with agricultural, household, and industrial waste have been detected. These chemicals are referred to collectively as chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) and include prescription drugs and antibiotics, over-the-counter medications, reproductive hormones, personal-care products, detergent metabolites, and flame retardants. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborated with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on a study to identify the presence of CECs in water and bottom-sediment samples collected during 2012 at 66 sites throughout the Great Lakes Basin. The 2012 effort is part of a long-term study that was initiated in 2010. The purposes of this report are to document the collection and analytical methods, provide the quality-assurance data and analyses, and provide the water and bottom-sediment data for this study of CECs in the Great Lakes Basin for 2012. A previous report documents data collected during 2010 and 2011. The methods used for chemical analyses were identical between the 2010–11 and 2012 studies, with the exception that a method to determine nontarget chemicals was used during 2010–11. The data from this study are published as a USGS Data Series Report to ensure adequate documentation of the original methods and provide a citable source for study data. This report contains no interpretations of the study data. The chemical data are as reported by the laboratory and have not been censored or adjusted unless otherwise noted. Field measurements were recorded and samples were collected in April and May and in September 2012, by U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency personnel. Study sites included tributaries to the Great Lakes located near Duluth, Minnesota; King, Wisconsin; Green Bay, Wis.; Detroit, Michigan; Monroe, Mich.; Toledo, Ohio, and Rochester, New York. Water and bottom-sediment samples were analyzed at the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory in Denver, Colorado, for a broad suite of CECs. During this 2012 study, 140 environmental and 8 field duplicate samples of surface water and wastewater effluent, 1 field blank water sample, and 5 field spike water samples were collected or prepared. Water samples were analyzed at the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory using laboratory schedule 4433 for wastewater indicators, research method 8244 for pharmaceuticals, and laboratory schedule 4434 for steroid hormones, sterols, and bisphenol A. For wastewater indicators in unfiltered water, 61 of the 68 chemicals analyzed using laboratory schedule 4433 had detectable concentrations ranging from 0.002 to 64.4 micrograms per liter. Thirty-eight of the 48 chemicals analyzed using research method 8244 for pharmaceuticals in unfiltered water had detectable concentrations ranging from 0.002 to 3.32 micrograms per liter. Twelve of the 20 chemicals analyzed using laboratory schedule 4434 for steroid hormones, sterols, and bisphenol A in unfiltered water had detectable concentrations ranging from 0.43 to 120,000 nanograms per liter. During this study, 53 environmental samples, 4 field duplicate samples, and 8 field spike samples of bottom sediment and laboratory matrix-spike samples were analyzed for a wide variety of CECs at the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory using laboratory schedule 5433 for wastewater indicators; research method 6434 for steroid hormones, sterols, and bisphenol A; and research method 9008 for human-use pharmaceuticals and antidepressants. Forty of the 57 chemicals analyzed using laboratory schedule 5433 had detectable concentrations ranging from 1 to 49,000 micrograms per kilogram. Fourteen of the 20 chemicals analyzed using research method 6434 had detectable concentrations ranging from 0.04 to 24,940 nanograms per gram. Ten of the 20 chemicals analyzed using research method 9008 had detectable concentrations ranging from 0.59 to 197.5 micrograms per kilogram. Five of the 11 chemicals analyzed using research method 9008 had detectable concentrations ranging from 1.16 to 25.0 micrograms per kilogram.

Great Lakes Basin↗

Examining the effect of environmental variability on the viability of endangered Steller sea lions using an integrated population model

Understanding spatio-temporal variability in demography and the influence of environmental conditions offers insight into the factors underlying population dynamics. This is particularly true for species with divergent demographic patterns across large geographic areas. The contrasting abundance trends observed across the range of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) have been studied extensively, with research suggesting that the primary drivers of localized population dynamics vary over time and space. We developed a Bayesian integrated population model for the endangered western distinct population segment of Steller sea lions that combines mark-recapture and count data from 2000-2021 to estimate demographic rates, abundance trends, and the effects of environmental variability on population growth. Our results highlight subregional demographic differences, including reduced pup survival in the central Aleutian Islands and reduced yearling survival west of Samalga Pass. Range-wide abundance increased by 1.7% yr-1 (95% credible interval: 0.14; 3.4%) over the study period, with a positive annual growth rate of 3.0% (1.1; 5.1%) yr-1 east of Samalga Pass, a negative growth rate of -2.1% (-4.6; 0.5%) yr-1 west of Samalga Pass, and an overall low probability of local extirpation (<2%) in 100 years even in subregions experiencing continued decline. The effect of environmental variability on population growth varied depending on subpopulation size and vital rates and was strongest in the area of greatest decline. Our model improves upon existing approaches for estimating abundance, accounts for environmental variability within the viability analysis, and can facilitate evaluating the efficacy of conservation actions and progress toward recovery goals.

Alaska↗