USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Ecological Complexity”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources
USGS2001

Macroinvertebrate instream flow studies after 20 years: A role in stream management and restoration

Over the past two decades of refinement and application of instream flow evaluations, we have examined the hydraulic habitat of aquatic macroinvertebrates in a variety of conditions, along with the role of these macroinvertebrates in sustaining ecosystem integrity. Instream flow analyses assume that predictable changes in channel flow characteristics can, in turn, be used to predict the change in the density or distribution of lotic species or, more appropriately, the availability of useable habitat for those species. Five major hydraulic conditions most affect the distribution and ecological success of lotic biota: suspended load, bedload movement, and water column effects, such as turbulence, velocity profile, and substratum interactions (near-bed hydraulics). The interactions of these hydraulic conditions upon the morphology and behavior of the individual organisms govern the distribution of aquatic biota. Historically, management decisions employing the Physical Habitat Simulation (PHABSIM) have focused upon prediction of available habitat for life stages of target fish species. Regulatory agencies have rarely included evaluation of benthos for flow reservations. Although ‘taxonomic discomfort’ may be cited for the reluctant use or creation of benthic criteria, we suggest that a basic misunderstanding of the links between benthic macroinvertebrate and the fish communities is still a problem. This is derived from the lack of a perceived ‘value’ that can be assigned to macroinvertebrate species. With the exception of endangered mussel species (for which PHABSIM analysis is probably inappropriate), this is understandable. However, it appears that there is a greater ability to predict macroinvertebrate distribution (that is, a response to the change in habitat quality or location) and diversity without complex population models. Also, habitat suitability criteria for water quality indicator taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera; the so-called ‘EPTs’) may also provide additional management options to stream regulators. The greatest application for macroinvertebrate criteria will be in low-order streams where a more immediate link to fish communities can be established. We present an example from Queens Creek, in North Carolina, USA, in which monthly allocations required to preserve the integrity of the benthic macroinvertebrate community were significantly higher than for the target benthic fish species, Cottus bairdi . In the months when both Cottus and community diversity of macroinvertebrates were the ‘bottleneck’ life stages, preservation of only fish species could result in an additional 5–25% loss in macroinvertebrate habitat. We suggest that, as there becomes an increased emphasis on maintaining macroinvertebrates as monitors of stream health, there will be a concurrent emphasis on incorporating hydraulic habitat conditions as a part of bioassessment.

Regulated Rivers: Research & Management↗
USGS2017

A Bayesian method for assessing multiscalespecies-habitat relationships

Context Scientists face several theoretical and methodological challenges in appropriately describing fundamental wildlife-habitat relationships in models. The spatial scales of habitat relationships are often unknown, and are expected to follow a multi-scale hierarchy. Typical frequentist or information theoretic approaches often suffer under collinearity in multi-scale studies, fail to converge when models are complex or represent an intractable computational burden when candidate model sets are large. Objectives Our objective was to implement an automated, Bayesian method for inference on the spatial scales of habitat variables that best predict animal abundance. Methods We introduce Bayesian latent indicator scale selection (BLISS), a Bayesian method to select spatial scales of predictors using latent scale indicator variables that are estimated with reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. BLISS does not suffer from collinearity, and substantially reduces computation time of studies. We present a simulation study to validate our method and apply our method to a case-study of land cover predictors for ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) abundance in Nebraska, USA. Results Our method returns accurate descriptions of the explanatory power of multiple spatial scales, and unbiased and precise parameter estimates under commonly encountered data limitations including spatial scale autocorrelation, effect size, and sample size. BLISS outperforms commonly used model selection methods including stepwise and AIC, and reduces runtime by 90%. Conclusions Given the pervasiveness of scale-dependency in ecology, and the implications of mismatches between the scales of analyses and ecological processes, identifying the spatial scales over which species are integrating habitat information is an important step in understanding species-habitat relationships. BLISS is a widely applicable method for identifying important spatial scales, propagating scale uncertainty, and testing hypotheses of scaling relationships.

Nebraska↗
USGS2016

Where the wild things are: A research agenda for studying wildlife-wilderness relationship

We explore the connection between US designated wilderness areas and wildlife with the goal of establishing a research agenda for better understanding this complex relationship. Our research agenda has two components. The first, “wildlife for wilderness,” considers the impact of wildlife on wilderness character. Whereas studies show that wildlife is important in both the perception and actual enhancement of wilderness character, the context and particulars of this relationship have not been evaluated. For instance, is knowing that a rare, native species is present in a wilderness area enough to increase perceptions of naturalness (an important wilderness quality)? Or does the public need to observe the species or its sign (e.g., tracks) for this benefit? The second part of our research agenda, “wilderness for wildlife,” considers the types of research needed to understand the impact of wilderness areas on wildlife and biodiversity conservation. Several studies show the effect of one area being designated wilderness on one wildlife species. Yet, there has been no research that examines how the networks of wilderness areas in the National Wilderness Preservation System (NWPS) are used by a species or a community of species. Furthermore, we found no studies that focused on how the NWPS affects ecological or trophic interactions among species. We hope that by providing a research agenda, we can spur multiple lines of research on the topic of wildlife and wilderness.

Journal of Forestry↗
USGS2016

Structured decision making as a framework for large-scale wildlife harvest management decisions

Fish and wildlife harvest management at large spatial scales often involves making complex decisions with multiple objectives and difficult tradeoffs, population demographics that vary spatially, competing stakeholder values, and uncertainties that might affect management decisions. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a formal decision analytic framework for evaluating difficult decisions by breaking decisions into component parts and separating the values of stakeholders from the scientific evaluation of management actions and uncertainty. The result is a rigorous, transparent, and values-driven process. This decision-aiding process provides the decision maker with a more complete understanding of the problem and the effects of potential management actions on stakeholder values, as well as how key uncertainties can affect the decision. We use a case study to illustrate how SDM can be used as a decision-aiding tool for management decision making at large scales. We evaluated alternative white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) buck-harvest regulations in New York designed to reduce harvest of yearling bucks, taking into consideration the values of the state wildlife agency responsible for managing deer, as well as deer hunters. We incorporated tradeoffs about social, ecological, and economic management concerns throughout the state. Based on the outcomes of predictive models, expert elicitation, and hunter surveys, the SDM process identified management alternatives that optimized competing objectives. The SDM process provided biologists and managers insight about aspects of the buck-harvest decision that helped them adopt a management strategy most compatible with diverse hunter values and management concerns.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2009

Addressing foundational elements of regional land-use change forecasting

Regional land-use models must address several foundational elements, including understanding geographic setting, establishing regional land-use histories, modeling process and representing drivers of change, representing local land-use patterns, managing issues of scale and complexity, and development of scenarios. Key difficulties include managing an array of biophysical and socioeconomic processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales, and acquiring and utilizing empirical data to support the analysis of those processes. The Southeastern and Pacific Northwest regions of the United States, two heavily forested regions with significant forest industries, are examined in the context of these foundational elements. Geographic setting fundamentally affects both the primary land cover (forest) in the two regions, and the structure and form of land use (forestry). Land-use histories of the regions can be used to parameterize land-use models, validate model performance, and explore land-use scenarios. Drivers of change in the two regions are many and varied, with issues of scale and complexity posing significant challenges. Careful scenario development can be used to simplify process-based land-use models, and can improve our ability to address specific research questions. The successful modeling of land-use change in these two areas requires integration of both top-down and bottom-up drivers of change, using scenario frameworks to both guide and simplify the modeling process. Modular approaches, with utilization and integration of existing process models, allow regional land-use modelers the opportunity to better represent primary drivers of land-use change. However, availability of data to represent driving forces remains a primary obstacle.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2020

Factors influencing Cinnamon Teal nest attendance patterns

Patterns of nest attendance in birds result from complex behaviours and influence the success of reproductive events. Incubation behaviours vary based on individual body condition, energy requirements and environmental factors. We assessed nest attendance patterns in Cinnamon Teal Spatula cyanoptera breeding in the San Luis Valley of Colorado in 2016–2017 using trail and video cameras to observe behaviours throughout incubation. We evaluated the effect of temporal, life-history and environmental covariates on the frequency and duration of incubation recesses as well as the incubation constancy. There was considerable model uncertainty among the models used to evaluate recess frequency. Recess duration varied according to the interaction between nest age and a quadratic effect of time of day, with hens on older nests taking longer recesses in the afternoon and hens on nests earlier in incubation taking longer recesses in the morning and evening. Incubation constancy decreased with higher ambient temperatures in the study area. This study provides evidence that Cinnamon Teal modify their behaviour during incubation according to the age of the nest and the time of day. These results improve our knowledge of Cinnamon Teal breeding ecology and shed light on the behaviours that fast-lived species may use to cope with environmental factors during nesting.

Colorado↗
USGS2006

Breeding ecology and nesting habitat associations of five marsh bird species in western New York

Nesting habitats and nest success of five species of marsh birds were studied during 1997 and 1998 at the Iroquois National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and the adjacent Oak Orchard and Tonawanda State Wildlife Management Areas (WMA) located in western New York. Nest searches located 18 American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), 117 Least Bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), 189 Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps), 23 Sora (Porzana carolina), and 72 Virginia Rail (Rallus limicola) nests. Average nest densities in 1998, our best nest searching year, ranged from 0.01/ha for Soras (N = 8) to 0.28/ha for Pied-billed Grebes (N = 160). Mayfield nest success estimates for Least Bittern were 80% (N = 16) in 1997 and 46% (N = 37) in 1998. Nest success estimates were 72% (N = 55) for Pied-billed Grebe, 43% (N = 6) for Sora, and 38% (N = 20) for Virginia Rail. Nests of all five species were located in ???70% emergent vegetation with a mean water depth of 24-56 cm and an average vegetation height that ranged from 69-133 cm. Logistic regression models were developed for each species using habitat variables at nest and random site locations. Each model was ranked with Akaike's Information Criterion for small sample size (AICc). In general, our best models indicated that increased emergent vegetation and horizontal cover with shallow water depths improved the odds of encountering marsh bird nests in the wetlands of western New York. We suggest that managing wetlands as a complex, at different stages of succession, would best benefit marsh bird species.

Waterbirds↗
USGS2020

Robust geographical determinants of infection prevalence and a contrasting latitudinal diversity gradient for haemosporidian parasites in Western Palearctic birds

Identifying robust environmental predictors of infection probability is central to forecasting and mitigating the ongoing impacts of climate change on vector‐borne disease threats. We applied phylogenetic hierarchical models to a data set of 2,171 Western Palearctic individual birds from 47 species to determine how climate and landscape variation influence infection probability for three genera of haemosporidian blood parasites ( Haemoproteus , Leucocytozoon , and Plasmodium ). Our comparative models found compelling evidence that birds in areas with higher vegetation density (captured by the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) had higher likelihoods of carrying parasite infection. Magnitudes of this relationship were remarkably similar across parasite genera considering that these parasites use different arthropod vectors and are widely presumed to be epidemiologically distinct. However, we also uncovered key differences among genera that highlighted complexities in their climate responses. In particular, prevalences of Haemoproteus and Plasmodium showed strong but contrasting relationships with winter temperatures, supporting mounting evidence that winter warming is a key environmental filter impacting the dynamics of host‐parasite interactions. Parasite phylogenetic community diversities demonstrated a clear but contrasting latitudinal gradient, with Haemoproteus diversity increasing towards the equator and Leucocytozoon diversity increasing towards the poles. Haemoproteus diversity also increased in regions with higher vegetation density, supporting our evidence that summer vegetation density is important for structuring the distributions of these parasites. Ongoing variation in winter temperatures and vegetation characteristics will probably have far‐reaching consequences for the transmission and spread of vector‐borne diseases.

Molecular Ecology↗
USGS2023

Patterns, drivers, and a predictive model of dam removal cost in the United States

Given the burgeoning dam removal movement and the large number of dams approaching obsolescence in the United States, cost estimating data and tools are needed for dam removal prioritization, planning, and execution. We used the list of removed dams compiled by American Rivers to search for publicly available reported costs for dam removal projects. Total cost information could include component costs related to project planning, dam deconstruction, monitoring, and several categories of mitigation activities. We compiled reported costs from 455 unique sources for 668 dams removed in the United States from 1965 to 2020. The dam removals occurred within 571 unique projects involving 1–18 dams. When adjusted for inflation into 2020 USD, cost of these projects totaled \$1.522 billion, with per-dam costs ranging from $1 thousand (k) to \$268.8 million (M). The median cost for dam removals was \$157k, \$823k, and \$6.2M for dams that were< 5 m, between 5–10 m, and > 10 m in height, respectively. Geographic differences in total costs showed that northern states in general, and the Pacific Northwest in particular, spent the most on dam removal. The Midwest and the Northeast spent proportionally more on removal of dams less than 5 m in height, whereas the Northwest and Southwest spent the most on larger dam removals > 10 m tall. We used stochastic gradient boosting with quantile regression to model dam removal cost against potential predictor variables including dam characteristics (dam height and material), hydrography (average annual discharge and drainage area), project complexity (inferred from construction and sediment management, mitigation, and post-removal cost drivers), and geographic region. Dam height, annual average discharge at the dam site, and project complexity were the predominant drivers of removal cost. The final model had an R 2 of 57% and when applied to a test dataset model predictions had a root mean squared error of $5.09M and a mean absolute error of \$1.45M, indicating its potential utility to predict estimated costs of dam removal. We developed a R shiny application for estimating dam removal costs using customized model inputs for exploratory analyses and potential dam removal planning.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

Multicriteria decisions and portfolio analysis: Land acquisition for biological and social objectives

Resource allocation for land acquisition is a common multi-objective problem that involves complex trade-offs. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service currently uses the Targeted Resource Acquisition Comparison Tool (TRACT) to allocate funds from the Migratory Bird Conservation Fund (MBCF; established through the Migratory Bird Hunting and Conservation Act of 1934) for land acquisition based on cost-benefit analysis, regional priority rankings of candidate land parcels available for acquisition, and the overall biological contribution to duck population objectives. However, current policy encourages decision makers to consider societal and economic benefits of lands acquired, in addition to their biological benefits to waterfowl. These decisions about portfolio elements (i.e. individual land parcels) require an analysis of the difficult trade-offs among multiple objectives. In the last decade the application of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods has been instrumental in aiding decision makers with complex multi-objective decisions. In this study, we present an alternative approach to developing land acquisition portfolios using MCDA and Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). We describe the development of a portfolio decision analysis tool using constrained optimization for land acquisition decisions by the NWRS. We outline the decision framework, describe development of the prototype tool in Microsoft Excel, and test the results of the tool using land parcels submitted as candidates for MBCF funding in 2019. Our results indicate that the constrained optimization outperformed the traditional TRACT method and ad hoc portfolios developed using current NWRS criteria.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2006

Landscape attributes and life history variability shape genetic structure of trout populations in a stream network

Spatial and temporal landscape patterns have long been recognized to influence biological processes, but these processes often operate at scales that are difficult to study by conventional means. Inferences from genetic markers can overcome some of these limitations. We used a landscape genetics approach to test hypotheses concerning landscape processes influencing the demography of Lahontan cutthroat trout in a complex stream network in the Great Basin desert of the western US. Predictions were tested with population- and individual-based analyses of microsatellite DNA variation, reflecting patterns of dispersal, population stability, and local effective population sizes. Complementary genetic inferences suggested samples from migratory corridors housed a mixture of fish from tributaries, as predicted based on assumed migratory life histories in those habitats. Also as predicted, populations presumed to have greater proportions of migratory fish or from physically connected, large, or high quality habitats had higher genetic variability and reduced genetic differentiation from other populations. Populations thought to contain largely non-migratory individuals generally showed the opposite pattern, suggesting behavioral isolation. Estimated effective sizes were small, and we identified significant and severe genetic bottlenecks in several populations that were isolated, recently founded, or that inhabit streams that desiccate frequently. Overall, this work suggested that Lahontan cutthroat trout populations in stream networks are affected by a combination of landscape and metapopulation processes. Results also demonstrated that genetic patterns can reveal unexpected processes, even within a system that is well studied from a conventional ecological perspective. ?? Springer 2006.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2024

Does the extent of glacial cover across watersheds and discharge periods affect dietary resource use of nearshore fishes in the Northern Gulf of Alaska?

Northern high-latitude glaciers impact nearshore marine ecosystems through the discharge of cold and fresh waters, including nutrients and organic matter. Fishes are important integrators of ecosystem processes and hold key positions in the transfer of energy to higher trophic positions in such systems. This study used a natural gradient in space and time, including watershed glacial cover (0–60%) of five adjacent estuaries and three sequential discharge periods (pre-peak, peak, post-peak) in the northern Gulf of Alaska (Kachemak Bay) to test whether differences in glacial cover of watersheds upstream of estuaries affect dietary resource use of nearshore fishes. Dietary resource use was assessed using stomach content and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses to determine fish diet composition and trophic niche width. Crescent gunnel ( Pholis laeta ), a mostly sedentary species, was our focal species for comparisons across estuaries and discharge periods. Discharge period had a greater influence on diet composition and trophic niche width of crescent gunnels than watershed glacial coverage. Niche width of crescent gunnel was larger during the post-peak discharge period compared to pre-peak and peak periods, coincident with a shift in prey spectrum. However, watershed glacial cover was not a suitable predictor of niche width of crescent gunnel. Trophic resource use was also considered along this glacial cover gradient for two other fish species, Pacific staghorn sculpin ( Leptocottus armatus ) and starry flounder ( Platichthys stellatus ), but within the post-peak discharge period only. These species exploited a larger prey base compared to crescent gunnel, likely due to their greater mobility. Similar to crescent gunnel, there were no relationships in trophic niche width associated with watershed glacial coverage for these other species during the post-peak discharge period. Instead, trophic resource use of these three nearshore fish species was influenced by a more complex set of dynamic environmental variables (salinity, temperature, turbidity, and discharge), as well as static watershed characteristics, especially vegetation cover. Such drivers can act through changes in metabolic rates, modulating foraging strategies and trophic connectivity, as well as terrestrial nutrient delivery to support estuarine production. The environmental conditions associated with the glacially influenced estuaries during our study period (2020−2021) seemed within a range that allowed nearshore fishes to maintain energy pathways and prey bases across these estuaries, but it is unknown how these estuarine food webs may be influenced in years of extreme conditions such as during heat waves, droughts, or floods.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Tracking domestic ducks: A novel approach for documenting poultry market chains in the context of avian influenza transmission

Agro-ecological conditions associated with the spread and persistence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) are not well understood, but the trade of live poultry is suspected to be a major pathway. Although market chains of live bird trade have been studied through indirect means including interviews and questionnaires, direct methods have not been used to identify movements of individual poultry. To bridge the knowledge gap on quantitative movement and transportation of poultry, we introduced a novel approach for applying telemetry to document domestic duck movements from source farms at Poyang Lake, China. We deployed recently developed transmitters that record Global Positioning System (GPS) locations and send them through the Groupe Sp&eacute;cial Mobile (GSM) cellular telephone system. For the first time, we were able to track individually marked ducks from 3 to 396 km from their origin to other farms, distribution facilities, or live bird markets. Our proof of concept test showed that the use of GPS-GSM transmitters may provide direct, quantitative information to document the movement of poultry and reveal their market chains. Our findings provide an initial indication of the complexity of source-market network connectivity and highlight the great potential for future telemetry studies in poultry network analyses.

Poyang Lake↗
USGS2022

Occurrence of a reproducing wild population of Channa aurolineata (Pisces: Channidae) in the Manatee River drainage, Florida

We report on the discovery of a wild, reproducing population of Channa aurolineata (Pisces: Channidae) in west-central Florida (USA), and first documented occurrence of snakeheads in the Gulf Coast region. Channa aurolineata is a large, predatory fish of the bullseye snakehead “Marulius group” species complex from Asia. Adult and juvenile specimens were captured in June 2020 in a 1.8-hectare pond that connects during high water to a small stream within the Manatee River-Tampa Bay Basin. The pond site is 250-km from the only other wild C. aurolineata population in the USA (present in southeast Florida since ca. 2000) and is considered a separate introduction and not the result of natural dispersal. Morphological and molecular comparisons revealed high overlap between the two Florida populations, evidence humans may have transported fish between sites. To verify identification, we compared Florida samples to C. aurolineata from Thailand and found mtDNA-COI barcode sequences to be identical or to differ by only a single base pair. Life body coloration of Florida samples matched their Asian counterparts, but Florida specimens averaged fewer dorsal fin rays (53.6 vs. 56.0), anal fin rays (34.2 vs 36.1), lateral line scales (65.3 vs. 67.4), and vertebrae (62.1 vs. 64.3), differences implying possible founder effect or sampling bias. Existence of this invasive predator is a concern because of the risk of spread and negative ecological effects, including an observation of terrestrial hunting behavior. In 2020–2021, several hundred C. aurolineata were removed from the pond by nets and electrofishing, and surveys suggested the population had not spread to nearby waters. In May 2021 the pond was treated with rotenone and 48 more specimens were recovered. No additional snakeheads have been sighted since the piscicide operation, although verification of eradication will require monitoring of the watershed.

Florida↗
USGS2006

Ecological consequences of hydropower development in Central America: Impacts of small dams and water diversion on neotropical stream fish assemblages

Small dams for hydropower have caused widespread alteration of Central American rivers, yet much of recent development has gone undocumented by scientists and conservationists. We examined the ecological effects of a small hydropower plant (Dona Julia Hydroelectric Center) on two low-order streams (the Puerto Viejo River and Quebradon stream) draining a mountainous area of Costa Rica. Operation of the Dona Julia plant has dewatered these streams, reducing discharge to ~ 10% of average annual flow. This study compared fish assemblage composition and aquatic habitat upstream and downstream of diversion dams on two streams and along a ~ 4 km dewatered reach of the Puerto Viejo River in an attempt to evaluate current instream flow recommendations for regulated Costa Rican streams. Our results indicated that fish assemblages directly upstream and downstream of the dam on the third order Puerto Viejo River were dissimilar, suggesting that the small dam (< 15 in high) hindered movement of fishes. Along the ~ 4 km dewatered reach of the Puerto Viejo River, species count increased with downstream distance from the dam. However, estimated species richness and overall fish abundance were not significantly correlated with downstream distance from the dam. Our results suggested that effects of stream dewatering may be most pronounced for a subset of species with more complex reproductive requirements, classified as equilibrium-type species based on their life-history. In the absence of changes to current operations, we expect that fish assemblages in the Puerto Viejo River will be increasingly dominated by opportunistic-type, colonizing fish species. Operations of many other small hydropower plants in Costa Rica and other parts of Central America mirror those of Doha Julia; the methods and results of this study may be applicable to some of those projects.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2018

Alaska

Alaska is the largest state in the Nation, almost one-fifth the size of the combined lower 48 United States, and is rich in natural capital resources. Alaska is often identified as being on the front lines of climate change since it is warming faster than any other state and faces a myriad of issues associated with a changing climate. The cost of infrastructure damage from a warming climate is projected to be very large, potentially ranging from $110 to $270 million per year, assuming timely repair and maintenance. Although climate change does and will continue to dramatically transform the climate and environment of the Arctic, proactive adaptation in Alaska has the potential to reduce costs associated with these impacts. This includes the dissemination of several tools, such as guidebooks to support adaptation planning, some of which focus on Indigenous communities. While many opportunities exist with a changing climate, economic prospects are not well captured in the literature at this time. As the climate continues to warm, there is likely to be a nearly sea ice-free Arctic during the summer by mid-century. Ocean acidification is an emerging global problem that will intensify with continued carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and negatively affects organisms. Climate change will likely affect management actions and economic drivers, including fisheries, in complex ways. The use of multiple alternative models to appropriately characterize uncertainty in future fisheries biomass trajectories and harvests could help manage these challenges. As temperature and precipitation increase across the Alaska landscape, physical and biological changes are also occurring throughout Alaska’s terrestrial ecosystems. Degradation of permafrost is expected to continue, with associated impacts to infrastructure, river and stream discharge, water quality, and fish and wildlife habitat. Longer sea ice-free seasons, higher ground temperatures, and relative sea level rise are expected to exacerbate flooding and accelerate erosion in many regions, leading to the loss of terrestrial habitat in the future and in some cases requiring entire communities or portions of communities to relocate to safer terrain. The influence of climate change on human health in Alaska can be traced to three sources: direct exposures, indirect effects, and social or psychological disruption. Each of these will have different manifestations for Alaskans when compared to residents elsewhere in the United States. Climate change exerts indirect effects on human health in Alaska through changes to water, air, and soil and through ecosystem changes affecting disease ecology and food security, especially in rural communities. Alaska’s rural communities are predominantly inhabited by Indigenous peoples who may be disproportionately vulnerable to socioeconomic and environmental change; however, they also have rich cultural traditions of resilience and adaptation. The impacts of climate change will likely affect all aspects of Alaska Native societies, from nutrition, infrastructure, economics, and health consequences to language, education, and the communities themselves. The profound and diverse climate-driven changes in Alaska’s physical environment and ecosystems generate economic impacts through their effects on environmental services. These services include positive benefits directly from ecosystems (for example, food, water, and other resources), as well as services provided directly from the physical environment (for example, temperature moderation, stable ground for supporting infrastructure, and smooth surface for overland transportation). Some of these effects are relatively assured and in some cases are already occurring. Other impacts are highly uncertain, due to their dependence on the structure of global and regional economies and future human alterations to the environment decades into the future, but they could be large. In Alaska, a range of adaptations to changing climate and related environmental conditions are underway and others have been proposed as potential actions, including measures to reduce vulnerability and risk, as well as more systemic institutional transformation.

Report↗
USGS2023

Revealing the extent of sea otter impacts on bivalve prey through multi-trophic monitoring and mechanistic models

Sea otters are apex predators that can exert considerable influence over the nearshore communities they occupy. Since facing near extinction in the early 1900s, sea otters are making a remarkable recovery in Southeast Alaska, particularly in Glacier Bay, the largest protected tidewater glacier fjord in the world. The expansion of sea otters across Glacier Bay offers both a challenge to monitoring and stewardship and an unprecedented opportunity to study the top-down effect of a novel apex predator across a diverse and productive ecosystem. Our goal was to integrate monitoring data across trophic levels, space, and time to quantify and map the predator–prey interaction between sea otters and butter clams Saxidomus gigantea , one of the dominant large bivalves in Glacier Bay and a favoured prey of sea otters. We developed a spatially-referenced mechanistic differential equation model of butter clam dynamics that combined both environmental drivers of local population growth and estimates of otter abundance from aerial survey data. We embedded this model in a Bayesian statistical framework and fit it to clam survey data from 43 intertidal and subtidal sites across Glacier Bay. Prior to substantial sea otter expansion, we found that butter clam density was structured by an environmental gradient driven by distance from glacier (represented by latitude) and a quadratic effect of current speed. Estimates of sea otter attack rate revealed spatial heterogeneity in sea otter impacts and a negative relationship with local shoreline complexity. Sea otter exploitation of productive butter clam habitat substantially reduced the abundance and altered the distribution of butter clams across Glacier Bay, with potential cascading consequences for nearshore community structure and function. Spatial variation in estimated sea otter predation processes further suggests that community context and local environmental conditions mediate the top-down influence of sea otters on a given prey. Overall, our framework provides high-resolution insights about the interaction among components of this food web and could be applied to a variety of other systems involving invasive species, epidemiology or migration.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2011

Using multilevel spatial models to understand salamander site occupancy patterns after wildfire

Studies of the distribution of elusive forest wildlife have suffered from the confounding of true presence with the uncertainty of detection. Occupancy modeling, which incorporates probabilities of species detection conditional on presence, is an emerging approach for reducing observation bias. However, the current likelihood modeling framework is restrictive for handling unexplained sources of variation in the response that may occur when there are dependence structures such as smaller sampling units that are nested within larger sampling units. We used multilevel Bayesian occupancy modeling to handle dependence structures and to partition sources of variation in occupancy of sites by terrestrial salamanders (family Plethodontidae) within and surrounding an earlier wildfire in western Oregon, USA. Comparison of model fit favored a spatial N ‐mixture model that accounted for variation in salamander abundance over models that were based on binary detection/non‐detection data. Though catch per unit effort was higher in burned areas than unburned, there was strong support that this pattern was due to a higher probability of capture for individuals in burned plots. Within the burn, the odds of capturing an individual given it was present were 2.06 times the odds outside the burn, reflecting reduced complexity of ground cover in the burn. There was weak support that true occupancy was lower within the burned area. While the odds of occupancy in the burn were 0.49 times the odds outside the burn among the five species, the magnitude of variation attributed to the burn was small in comparison to variation attributed to other landscape variables and to unexplained, spatially autocorrelated random variation. While ordinary occupancy models may separate the biological pattern of interest from variation in detection probability when all sources of variation are known, the addition of random effects structures for unexplained sources of variation in occupancy and detection probability may often more appropriately represent levels of uncertainty.

Ecology↗