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At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Systems approaches for coastal hazard assessment and resilience

The framework presented herein supports a changing paradigm in the approaches used by coastal researchers, engineers, and social scientists to model the impacts of climate change and sea level rise (SLR) in particular along low-gradient coastal landscapes. Use of a System of Systems (SoS) approach to the coastal dynamics of SLR is encouraged to capture the nonlinear feedbacks and dynamic responses of the bio-geo-physical coastal environment to SLR, while assessing the social, economic, and ecologic impacts. The SoS approach divides the coastal environment into smaller subsystems such as morphology, ecology, and hydrodynamics. Integrated models are used to assess the dynamic responses of subsystems to SLR; these models account for complex interactions and feedbacks among individual systems, which provides a more comprehensive evaluation of the future of the coastal system as a whole. Results from the integrated models can be used to inform economic services valuations, in which economic activity is connected back to bio-geo-physical changes in the environment due to SLR by identifying changes in the coastal subsystems, linking them to the understanding of the economic system and assessing the direct and indirect impacts to the economy. These assessments can be translated from scientific data to application through various stakeholder engagement mechanisms, which provide useful feedback for accountability as well as benchmarks and diagnostic insights for future planning. This allows regional and local coastal managers to create more comprehensive policies to reduce the risks associated with future SLR and enhance coastal resilience.

Book chapter↗

USGS2010

Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative Science and Management Workshop Proceedings, May 12-14, 2009, Laramie, Wyoming

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hosted the second Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) Science and Management Workshop at the University of Wyoming Conference Center and Hilton Garden Inn on May 12, 13, and 14, 2009, in Laramie, Wyo. The workshop focused on six topics seen as relevant to ongoing WLCI science and management activities: mapping and modeling resources for decisionmaking; data information and management; fish and wildlife research; changing landscapes; monitoring; and reclamation and offsite mitigation. Panelists gave presentations on ongoing research in these six areas during plenary sessions followed by audience discussions. Three breakout groups focused on discussing wildlife, reclamation, and monitoring. Throughout the plenary sessions, audience discussions, and breakout groups, several needs were repeatedly emphasized by panelists and workshop participants: developing a conservation plan and identifying priority areas and species for conservation actions; gaining a deeper understanding of sagebrush ecology; identifying thresholds for wildlife that can be used to create an 'early warning system' for managers; continuing to collect basic data across the landscape; facilitating even greater communication and partnership across agencies and between scientists and land managers; and engaging proactively in understanding new changes on the landscape such as wind energy development and climate change. Detailed proceedings from the workshop are captured and summarized in this report.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Human drivers, biophysical changes, and climatic variation affecting contemporary cropping proportions in the northern prairie of the U.S

Grassland to cropland conversion in the northern prairie of the United States has been a topic of recent land use change studies. Within this region more corn and soybeans are grown now (2017) than in the past, but most studies to date have not examined multi-decadal trends and the synergistic web of socio-ecological driving forces involved, opting instead for short-term analyses and easily targeted agents of change. This paper examines the coalescing of biophysical and socioeconomic driving forces that have brought change to the agricultural landscape of this region between 1980 and 2013. While land conversion has occurred, most of the region’s cropland in 2013 had been previously cropped by the early 1980s. Furthermore, the agricultural conditions in which crops were grown during those three decades have changed considerably because of non-biophysical alterations to production practices and changing agricultural markets. Findings revealed that human drivers played more of a role in crop change than biophysical changes, that blending quantitative and qualitative methods to tell a more complete story of crop change in this region was difficult because of the synergistic characteristics of the drivers involved, and that more research is needed to understand how farmers make crop choice decisions.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2022

Pleistocene–Holocene vicariance, not Anthropocene landscape change, explains the genetic structure of American black bear (Ursus americanus) populations in the American Southwest and northern Mexico

The phylogeography of the American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) is characterized by isolation into glacial refugia, followed by population expansion and genetic admixture. Anthropogenic activities, including overharvest, habitat loss, and transportation infrastructure, have also influenced their landscape genetic structure. We describe the genetic structure of the American black bear in the American Southwest and northern Mexico and investigate how prehistoric and contemporary forces shaped genetic structure and influenced gene flow. Using a suite of microsatellites and a sample of 550 bears, we identified 14 subpopulations organized hierarchically following the distribution of ecoregions and mountain ranges containing black bear habitat. The pattern of subdivision we observed is more likely a product of postglacial habitat fragmentation during the Pleistocene and Holocene, rather than a consequence of contemporary anthropogenic barriers to movement during the Anthropocene. We used linear mixed-effects models to quantify the relationship between landscape resistance and genetic distance among individuals, which indicated that both isolation by resistance and geographic distance govern gene flow. Gene flow was highest among subpopulations occupying large tracts of contiguous habitat, was reduced among subpopulations in the Madrean Sky Island Archipelago, where montane habitat exists within a lowland matrix of arid lands, and was essentially nonexistent between two isolated subpopulations. We found significant asymmetric gene flow supporting the hypothesis that bears expanded northward from a Pleistocene refugium located in the American Southwest and northern Mexico and that major highways were not yet affecting gene flow. The potential vulnerability of the species to climate change, transportation infrastructure, and the US–Mexico border wall highlights conservation challenges and opportunities for binational collaboration.

Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Fire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape

Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Results Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5 °C increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2021

Mapping climate change vulnerability of aquatic-riparian ecosystems using decision-relevant indicators

Climate change has and is projected to continue to alter historical regimes of temperature, precipitation, and hydrology. To assess the vulnerability of climate change from a land management perspective and spatially identify where the most extreme changes are anticipated to occur, we worked in collaboration with land managers to develop a climate change vulnerability map for the midwestern United States with a focus on riparian systems. The map is intended for use by regional administrators to help them work across various program areas (e.g. fisheries, endangered species) to prioritize locations needing support for adaptation planning. The tool can also be utilized locally by managers to better understand the effects that projected climate scenarios have on the hydrology of management units as they develop adaptation strategies. The vulnerability map is watershed-based (360 watershed units within the region) and combines 15 climate change indicators that were selected by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service natural resource managers based upon known and anticipated effects to species and habitats. The projected change in each of these indicators from the historical period (1986–2005) to the future period (2040–2059) was aggregated into a composite score for each watershed. Landscape-scale metrics reflective of a watershed’s adaptive capacity were combined with the climate change indicators to produce a vulnerability score. We found sub-regional variation in vulnerability to climate change with the greatest vulnerability in Iowa, central Illinois, and northwest Ohio. Greater vulnerability was seen in the higher greenhouse gas concentration scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 compared to the lower greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP 4.5, when looking at the mean of the five downscaled climate models used in this study. By quantifying and mapping climate change vulnerability, natural resource managers can better understand the degree of vulnerability for individual watersheds and identify areas of prioritization in regional and local planning efforts.

Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS2025

The continued decline of the Palila (Loxioides bailleui) on Mauna Kea, Island of Hawaiʻi

Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) are critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers specializing on māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) seeds and restricted to Mauna Kea volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi. Recently, the population was estimated to decline by 89% between 1998 and 2021, despite decades of ungulate removal, fence construction, māmane regeneration, fire suppression, and predator control. To inform managers with the most recent update on the status and trends of the Palila population, we analyzed annual bird survey data collected using point-transect distance sampling since 1998, including new annual survey data from 2022, 2023, and 2024. Prior to analysis, we predicted the population trajectory would change between 2021 and 2024 because of continued management actions promoting habitat recovery. We used distance sampling, log-linear regression, and state-space modeling to produce the new estimates and analyze trends across the time series. The 2022 population estimate was 367 to 742 birds (95% confidence interval; point estimate: 545), the lowest in recorded history. The 2023 and 2024 estimates of 374 to 842 birds (point estimate: 596) and 412 to 970 birds (point estimate: 666) were the second and third lowest in our time series, respectively. Our estimates for years before 2022 show population fluctuations between 4000 to 6800 birds from 1998 to 2005, then a steep decline through 2010. For the next decade, abundance fluctuated around 1000 birds, before declining again in 2021 to less than 700 birds. From 1998 to 2024, the population declined by more than 90%, or 205 birds per year, with 100% statistical support for an overall downward trend, despite significant management efforts and research. The greatest threats facing the Palila, if familiar, are not being eliminated swiftly enough to promote their recovery. The currently small and range-limited population is vulnerable to future climate-related events such as drought and fire. Continued monitoring can help to assess the response of Palila to adaptive management actions and changing environmental conditions.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

The unprecedented loss of Florida's reef-building corals and the emergence of a novel coral-reef assemblage

Over the last half century, climate change, coral disease, and other anthropogenic disturbances have restructured coral-reef ecosystems on a global scale. The disproportionate loss of once-dominant, reef-building taxa has facilitated relative increases in the abundance of “weedy” or stress-tolerant coral species. Although the recent transformation of coral-reef assemblages is unprecedented on ecological timescales, determining whether modern coral reefs have truly reached a novel ecosystem state requires evaluating the dynamics of reef composition over much longer periods of time. Here, we provide a geologic perspective on the shifting composition of Florida's reefs by reconstructing the millennial-scale spatial and temporal variability in reef assemblages using 59 Holocene reef cores collected throughout the Florida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT). We then compare the relative abundances of reef-building species in the Holocene reef framework to data from contemporary reef surveys to determine how much Florida's modern reef assemblages have diverged from long-term baselines. We show that the composition of Florida's reefs was, until recently, remarkably stable over the last 8000 yr. The same corals that have dominated shallow-water reefs throughout the western Atlantic for hundreds of thousands of years, Acropora palmata , Orbicella spp., and other massive coral taxa, accounted for nearly 90% of Florida's Holocene reef framework. In contrast, the species that now have the highest relative abundances on the FKRT, primarily Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea , were rare in the reef framework, suggesting that recent shifts in species assemblages are unprecedented over millennial timescales. Although it may not be possible to return coral reefs to pre-Anthropocene states, our results suggest that coral-reef management focused on the conservation and restoration of the reef-building species of the past, will optimize efforts to preserve coral reefs, and the valuable ecosystem services they provide into the future.

Florida↗

USGS2022

Grassy–herbaceous land moderates regional climate effects on honey bee colonies in the Northcentral US

The lack of seasonally sustained floral resources (i.e. pollen and nectar) is considered a primary global threat to pollinator health. However, the ability to predict the abundance of flowering resources for pollinators based upon climate, weather, and land cover is difficult due to insufficient monitoring over adequate spatial and temporal scales. Here we use spatiotemporally distributed honey bee hive scales that continuously measure hive weights as a standardized method to assess nectar intake. We analyze late summer colony weight gain as the response variable in a random forest regression model to determine the importance of climate, weather, and land cover on honey bee colony productivity. Our random forest model predicted resource acquisition by honey bee colonies with 71% accuracy, highlighting the detrimental effects of warm, wet regions in the Northcentral United States on nectar intake, as well as the detrimental effect of years with high growing degree day accumulation. Our model also predicted that grassy–herbaceous natural land had a positive effect on the summer nectar flow and that large areas of natural grassy–herbaceous land around apiaries can moderate the detrimental effects of warm, wet climates. These patterns characterize multi-scale ecological processes that constrain the quantity and quality of pollinator nutritional resources. That is, broad climate conditions constrain regional floral communities, while land use and weather act to further modify the quantity and quality of pollinator nutritional resources. Observing such broad-scale trends demonstrates the potential for utilizing hive scales to monitor the effects of climate change on landscape-level floral resources for pollinators. The interaction of climate and land use also present an opportunity to manage for climate-resilient landscapes that support pollinators through abundant floral resources under climate change.

Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylva↗

USGS2015

Principles of effective USA federal fire management plans

Federal fire management plans are essential implementation guides for the management of wildland fire on federal lands. Recent changes in federal fire policy implementation guidance and fire science information suggest the need for substantial changes in federal fire management plans of the United States. Federal land management agencies are also undergoing land management planning efforts that will initiate revision of fire management plans across the country. Using the southern Sierra Nevada as a case study, we briefly describe the underlying framework of fire management plans, assess their consistency with guiding principles based on current science information and federal policy guidance, and provide recommendations for the development of future fire management plans. Based on our review, we recommend that future fire management plans be: (1) consistent and compatible, (2) collaborative, (3) clear and comprehensive, (4) spatially and temporally scalable, (5) informed by the best available science, and (6) flexible and adaptive. In addition, we identify and describe several strategic guides or “tools” that can enhance these core principles and benefit future fire management plans in the following areas: planning and prioritization, science integration, climate change adaptation, partnerships, monitoring, education and communication, and applied fire management. These principles and tools are essential to successfully realize fire management goals and objectives in a rapidly changing world.

California↗

USGS2009

Historical and modern disturbance regimes, stand structures, and landscape dynamics in piñon-juniper vegetation of the western United States

Piñon–juniper is a major vegetation type in western North America. Effective management of these ecosystems has been hindered by inadequate understanding of 1) the variability in ecosystem structure and ecological processes that exists among the diverse combinations of piñons, junipers, and associated shrubs, herbs, and soil organisms; 2) the prehistoric and historic disturbance regimes; and 3) the mechanisms driving changes in vegetation structure and composition during the past 150 yr. This article summarizes what we know (and don't know) about three fundamentally different kinds of piñon–juniper vegetation. Persistent woodlands are found where local soils, climate, and disturbance regimes are favorable for piñon, juniper, or a mix of both; fires have always been infrequent in these woodlands. Piñon–juniper savannas are found where local soils and climate are suitable for both trees and grasses; it is logical that low-severity fires may have maintained low tree densities before disruption of fire regimes following Euro-American settlement, but information is insufficient to support any confident statements about historical disturbance regimes in these savannas. Wooded shrublands are found where local soils and climate support a shrub community, but trees can increase during moist climatic conditions and periods without disturbance and decrease during droughts and following disturbance. Dramatic increases in tree density have occurred in portions of all three types of piñon–juniper vegetation, although equally dramatic mortality events have also occurred in some areas. The potential mechanisms driving increases in tree density—such as recovery from past disturbance, natural range expansion, livestock grazing, fire exclusion, climatic variability, and CO 2 fertilization—generally have not received enough empirical or experimental investigation to predict which is most important in any given location. The intent of this synthesis is 1) to provide a source of information for managers and policy makers; and 2) to stimulate researchers to address the most important unanswered questions.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2020

Drivers of landscape change in the northwest boreal region

The northwest boreal region (NWB) of North America is a land of extremes. Extending more than 1.3 million square kilometers (330 million acres), it encompasses the entire spectrum between inundated wetlands below sea level to the tallest peak in North America. Permafrost gradients span from nearly continuous to absent. Boreal ecosystems are inherently dynamic and continually change over decades to millennia. The braided rivers that shape the valleys and wetlands continually change course, creating and removing vast wetlands and peatlands. Glacial melt, erosion, fires, permafrost dynamics, and wind-blown loess are among the shaping forces of the landscape. As a result, species interactions and ecosystem processes are shifting across time. The NWB is a data-poor region, and the intention of the NWB Landscape Conservation Cooperative is to determine what data are not available and what data are available. For instance, historical baseline data describing the economic and social relationships in association with the ecological condition of the NWB landscape are often lacking. Likewise, the size and remoteness of this region make it challenging to measure basic biological information, such as species population sizes or trends. The paucity of weather and climate monitoring stations also compound the ability to model future climate trends and impacts, which is part of the nature of working in the north. The purpose of this volume is to create a resource for regional land and resource managers and researchers by synthesizing the latest research on the historical and current status of landscape-scale drivers (including anthropogenic activities) and ecosystem processes, future projected changes of each, and the effects of changes on important resources. Generally, each chapter is coauthored by researchers and land and natural resource managers from the United States and Canada.

Northwest Boreal Region↗

USGS1995

Pinyon-juniper woodlands

Pinyon-juniper woodlands are one of the largest ecosystems in the Southwest and in the Middle Rio Grande Basin (Fig. 1). The woodlands have been important to the region's inhabitants since prehistoric times for a variety of natural resources and amenities. The ecosystems have not been static; their distributions, stand characteristics, and site conditions have been altered by changes in climatic patterns and human use and, often, abuse. Management of these lands since European settlement has varied from light exploitation and benign neglect, to attempts to remove the trees in favor of forage for livestock, and then to a realization that these lands contain useful resources and should be managed accordingly. Land management agencies are committed to ecosystem management. While there are several definitions of ecosystem management, the goal is to use ecological approaches to create and maintain diverse, productive, and healthy ecosystems (Kaufmann et al. 1994). Ecosystem management recognizes that people are an integral part of the system and that their needs must be considered. Ecological approaches are central to the concept, but our understanding of basic woodland ecology is incomplete, and there are different opinions and interpretations of existing information (Gottfried and Severson 1993). There are many questions concerning proper ecosystem management of the pinyon-juniper woodlands and how managers can achieve these goals (Gottfried and Severson 1993). While the broad concept of ecosystem management generally is accepted, the USDA Forest Service, other public land management agencies, American Indian tribes, and private landowners may have differing definitions of what constitutes desired conditions. Key questions about the pinyon-juniper ecosystems remain unanswered. Some concern the basic dynamics of biological and physical components of the pinyon-juniper ecosystems. Others concern the distribution of woodlands prior to European settlement and changes since the introduction of livestock and fire control. This relates to whether tree densities have been increasing or whether trees are invading grasslands and, to a lesser extent, drier ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. In areas where woodlands were heavily used by American Indians for fuelwood prior to European contact, the advance of pinyon and juniper could represent the slow recovery from intensive use (Samuels and Betancourt 1982). There are numerous questions regarding declines in watershed condition related to changes in pinyon-juniper tree stand densities and to the density and composition of understory vegetation. There are different opinions about proper management of woodland ecosystems. Should these lands be managed for a single resource, such as forage for livestock production, or managed for sustained production of multiple resource products and amenities? Depending on site and stand conditions, the woodlands can produce variable quantities of fuelwood, pinyon nuts, wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, and cover for watershed protection. Management must also consider increasing recreational demands, threatened and endangered species, and protection of archeological sites. Many pinyon-juniper woodland watersheds in New Mexico have unsatisfactory soil and watershed conditions (USDA Forest Service 1993); managers must develop restoration procedures that recognize the value of woodland ecosystems. The concerns, questions, and conflicts surrounding management of pinyon-juniper lands, as well as the ecological foundations of ecosystem management, require that all interested parties reevaluate attitudes toward the woodlands. Ecosystem management goals and concepts recognize diversity. Pinyonjuniper woodlands are diverse, and stand characteristics and site productivities vary. Management objectives and prescriptions must evaluate the potential of each site, and decisions must be based on sound scientific information. This information is often unavailable. Therefore, this paper describes what we do know about the characteristics, distribution, and ecology of pinyon-juniper woodlands, including the effects of natural and human factors, within the southwestern United States and particularly the Middle Rio Grande Basin. It also reviews some past and present management options in this widespread and important vegetation type. The review draws on research and management information from the Rio Grande Basin and from similar areas in the Southwest and adjacent regions. It does not attempt to review all of the relevant literature; additional sources can be found within the articles cited in the References.

General Technical Report↗

USGS2021

A greener future for the Galapagos: Forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time

Forecasting ecosystem response to climate change is critical for guiding policymaking but challenging due to: complicated relationships between microclimates and regional climates; species’ responses that are driven by extremes rather than averages; the multifaceted nature of species’ interactions; and the lack of historical analogs to future climates. Given these challenges, even model systems such as the Galapagos Islands, a world-famous biodiversity hotspot and World Heritage Site, lack clear forecasts for future environmental change. Here, we developed a novel nonparametric method for simulating the ecosystem futures based on observed vegetation productivity (NDVI) during analogous weather observed historically. Using satellite images taken from the past to piece together a simulated future, we projected that productivity of terrestrial vegetation of the Galapagos will increase over the next century by approximately one standard deviation archipelago-wide, with largest increases during the wet season (January to June) and in the arid zones. Such greening would impact a variety of ecological and evolutionary processes, species of conservation concern, and agricultural practices. Our straightforward approach can be applied to many other regions, particularly those with rapid ecosystem responses to stochastic inter-annual climatic fluctuations that provide appropriate climate analogs for forecasting.

Galápagos Islands↗

USGS2024

A comparative framework to develop transferable species distribution models for animal telemetry data

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become increasingly popular for making ecological inferences, as well as predictions to inform conservation and management. In predictive modeling, practitioners often use correlative SDMs that only evaluate a single spatial scale and do not account for differences in life stages. These modeling decisions may limit the performance of SDMs beyond the study region or sampling period. Given the increasing desire to develop transferable SDMs, a robust framework is necessary that can account for known challenges of model transferability. Here, we propose a comparative framework to develop transferable SDMs, which was tested using satellite telemetry data from green turtles ( Chelonia mydas ). This framework is characterized by a set of steps comparing among different models based on (1) model algorithm (e.g., generalized linear model vs. Gaussian process regression) and formulation (e.g., correlative model vs. hybrid model), (2) spatial scale, and (3) accounting for life stage. SDMs were fitted as resource selection functions and trained on data from the Gulf of Mexico with bathymetric depth, net primary productivity, and sea surface temperature as covariates. Independent validation datasets from Brazil and Qatar were used to assess model transferability. A correlative SDM using a hierarchical Gaussian process regression (HGPR) algorithm exhibited greater transferability than a hybrid SDM using HGPR, as well as correlative and hybrid forms of hierarchical generalized linear models. Additionally, models that evaluated habitat selection at the finest spatial scale and that did not account for life stage proved to be the most transferable in this study. The comparative framework presented here may be applied to a variety of species, ecological datasets (e.g., presence-only, presence-absence, mark-recapture), and modeling frameworks (e.g., resource selection functions, step selection functions, occupancy models) to generate transferable predictions of species–habitat associations. We expect that SDM predictions resulting from this comparative framework will be more informative management tools and may be used to more accurately assess climate change impacts on a wide array of taxa.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2019

Salmon, forage fish, and kelp

Kelp beds are prominent features of northeast Pacific coastlines. They are seasonal in nature, as are the communities that use them. Here, juvenile and adult Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) – key components of northeast Pacific marine food webs that link plankton and forage fishes to endangered killer whales – have just arrived at the coastal kelp beds (left) and are feeding on the large schools of forage fish such as young‐of‐the‐year herring, which are also migrating in great numbers near the shore. Juvenile herring and smelt will soon move offshore to grow and feed, and finally return as adults to spawn along shorelines. Rapid growth is critical to the survival of young salmon. They quickly learn to work together to herd the small, skittish prey into tight groups. The kelp beds play an important role for both the salmon and their prey, providing refuge for feeding salmon and enhanced prey resources for hungry forage fish, which in turn feed incessantly at the surface of the kelp beds, except when they are disrupted by lightning‐fast attacks by marauding salmon. By October, much of the kelp will be gone, as will the juvenile salmon and forage fish, replaced by their adult congeners (right) that have traveled for years and hundreds of miles to continue the cycle. Globally, kelp forests are in flux. Disturbances, including those induced by climate change, may have serious implications not only for this critical nearshore phase of salmon and forage fish, but also for the future viability of our cold‐water northeast Pacific marine ecosystems.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2018

Drought and fire in the western USA: Is climate attribution enough?

Purpose of Review I sought to review the contributions of recent literature and prior foundational papers to our understanding of drought and fire. In this review, I summarize recent literature on drought and fire in the western USA and discuss research directions that may increase the utility of that body of work for twenty-first century application. I then describe gaps in the synthetic knowledge of drought-driven fire in managed ecosystems and use concepts from use-inspired research to describe potentially useful extensions of current work. Recent Findings Fire responses to climate, and specifically various kinds of drought, are clear, but vary widely with fuel responses to surplus water and drought at different timescales. Ecological and physical factors interact with human management and ignitions to create fire regime and landscape trajectories that challenge prediction. Summary The mechanisms by which the climate system affects regional droughts and how they translate to fire in the western USA need more attention to accelerate both forecasting and adaptation. However, projections of future fire activity under climate change will require integrated advances on both fronts to achieve decision-relevant modeling. Concepts from transdisciplinary research and coupled human-natural systems can help frame strategic work to address fire in a changing world.

Current Climate Change Reports↗

USGS2018

New global high-resolution centerlines dataset of selected river systems

We present the first high resolution (1:20,000) river centerlines shapefiles from 50 large rivers across the world. Rivers were selected based on the criteria of having more than 1000 km length and which have been reported to have a significant contribution to global fishery production. Since large rivers often span multiple countries, the degree of changes (i.e., anthropogenic or climate derived) varies from region to region. These high-resolution layers were developed to enable researchers to delineate accurate river length, from headwaters regions to their delta and assess or visualize the ongoing changes more accurately in these river systems. Further, these polylines could be used in coordination with satellite derived environmental or landscape variables for ecological research (e.g. predicting biodiversity, estimating biomass).

Data in Brief↗