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At least 1,153 records · Page 64Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Impacts of climate change on groundwater availability and spring flows: Observations from the highly productive Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System

Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System, located in northeastern California, is home to some of the largest first-order springs in the United States. This work assesses the likely effects of projected climate change on spring flow. Four anticipated climate futures (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5, CNRM rcp 8.5) for California, which predict a range of conditions (generally warming and transitioning from snow to rain with variable amounts of total precipitation), are postulated to affect groundwater recharge primarily by changing evapotranspiration. The linkages between climate variables and spring flow are evaluated using a water balance model that represents the physics of evapotranspiration and recharge, the Basin Characterization Model. Three of the four climate scenarios (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5) project that by the year 2100, groundwater recharge (and consequently decreased spring flow) will decrease by 27%, 21%, and 9%, respectively. The fourth scenario (CNRM rcp 8.5) showed an increase in recharge of 32% due to a significant increase in precipitation (27%). Evapotranspiration increases due to a shift in the type of precipitation and a longer growing season. While the likelihood of each scenario is outside the scope of this work, unless total precipitation increases dramatically in the future, increased temperatures and decreasing precipitation will likely result in reduced spring flows, along with warmer water temperatures in downstream habitats.

California↗
USGS2022

Predicting near-term effects of climate change on nitrogen transport to Chesapeake Bay

Understanding effects of climate change on nitrogen fate and transport in the environment is critical to nutrient management. We used climate projections within a previously calibrated spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) model to predict effects of expected climate change over 1995 through 2025 on total nitrogen fluxes to Chesapeake Bay and in watershed streams. Assuming nitrogen inputs and other watershed conditions remain at 2012 levels, effects of increasing temperature, runoff, streamflow, and stream velocity expected between 1995 and 2025 will include an estimated net 6.5% decline in annual nitrogen delivery to the bay from its watershed. This predicted decline is attributable to declines in the delivery of nitrogen from upland nonpoint sources to streams due to predicted warmer temperatures. Such temperature-driven declines in the delivery of nitrogen to streams more than offset predicted increased delivery to and within streams due to increased runoff and streamflow and may be attributable to increasing rates of denitrification or ammonia volatilization or to changes in plant phenology. Predicted climate-driven declines in nitrogen flux are generally similar across the watershed but vary slightly among major nonpoint source sectors and tributary watersheds. Nitrogen contributions to the bay from point sources are not affected by temperature-driven changes in delivery from uplands and are therefore predicted to increase slightly between 1995 and 2025.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2018

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g. historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. Here, we conduct a scenario impact assessment to determine the potential impact of climate change scenarios on the rates at which lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands are authorized for emergency biomass removal. Grassland biomass on CRP lands is authorized for ‘emergency’ harvesting for agricultural use when precipitation for the last four months falls below 40 percent of the normal, or ‘historical’ mean, precipitation for that four-month period. We develop and analyze scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections show the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28 ± 0.96%, according to long-term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario reflecting continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and experienced a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario reflecting rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario impact analysis indicates that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP will be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change, unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.

Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyo↗
USGS2025

Conserving climate-change refugia: Insights from research and practice

As the impacts of anthropogenic climate change increase, conservation of climate-change refugia has become a key strategy for effective environmental stewardship. Over the last 5 years, the field of climate-change refugia conservation has made exciting advances, shifting from concepts and theory to refugia mapping and implementation. However, few studies have advanced to action on the ground; while 84% of studies identified and mapped refugia, only 4% involved implementing management action. Moreover, taxonomic and geographic gaps remain, with most studies focused on terrestrial plants and vertebrates in Europe and North America. Here, we outline impediments to implementation following the steps of the Climate-Change Refugia Conservation Cycle. Based on a systematic literature review, we elucidate advances and obstacles with examples from a diversity of systems and sectors from across the world and highlight emerging work bridging the gap between research and implementation.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2018

Chasing a changing climate: Reproductive and dispersal traits predict how sessile species respond to global warming

Aim Studies of species' range shifts have become increasingly relevant for understanding ecology and biogeography in the face of accelerated global change. The combination of limited mobility and imperilled status places some species at a potentially greater risk of range loss, extirpation or extinction due to climate change. To assess the ability of organisms with limited movement and dispersal capabilities to track shifts associated with climate change, we evaluated reproductive and dispersal traits of freshwater mussels (Unionida), sessile invertebrates that require species‐specific fish for larval dispersal. Location North American Atlantic Slope rivers. Methods To understand how unionid mussels may cope with and adapt to current and future warming trends, we identified mechanisms that facilitated their colonization of the northern Atlantic Slope river basins in North America after the Last Glacial Maximum. We compiled species occurrence and life history trait information for each of 55 species, and then selected life history traits for which ample data were available (larval brooding duration, host fish specificity, host infection strategy, and body size) and analysed whether the trait state for each was related to mussel distribution in Atlantic Slope rivers. Results Brooding duration ( p < .01) and host fish specificity ( p = .02) were significantly related to mussel species distribution. Long‐term brooders were more likely than short‐term brooders to colonize formerly glaciated rivers, as were host generalists compared to specialists. Body size and host infection strategy were not predictive of movement into formerly glaciated rivers ( p > .10). Main conclusions Our results are potentially applicable to many species for which life history traits have not been well‐documented, because reproductive and dispersal traits in unionid mussels typically follow phylogenetic relationships. These findings may help resource managers prioritize species according to climate change vulnerability and predict which species might become further imperilled with climate warming. Finally, we suggest that similar trait‐based decision support frameworks may be applicable for other movement limited taxa.

Diversity and Distributions↗
USGS2024

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty-five species of mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard-mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine-scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2022

Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) otoliths indicate effects of climate and lake morphology on growth patterns in Arctic lakes

Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Arctic, and an improved understanding of the response of aquatic biota and ecosystems will be important for this data-limited region. Here, we applied biochronology techniques and mixed-effects modelling to assess relationships among growth increments found on lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) otoliths ( N = 49) captured from 13 lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, observed and modelled climate patterns, and individual-level fish and lake characteristics. We found that annual growth varied by year, fish growth slowed significantly as individuals aged, and females grew faster than males. Lake trout had higher growth in flow-through lakes relative to lakes that were perennially or seasonally connected. Annual growth was positively correlated with observed air temperature measurements from a local weather station for the period 1998–2014, but no clear warming trend was evident for this period. Modelled August air temperatures from 1978–2014 predicted lake trout annual growth (root mean squared error = 0.045 mm) and indicated increasing temperatures and annual lake trout growth over the period 1950–2014. This study demonstrated that biochronology techniques can reconstruct recent climate patterns and provide a better understanding of trends in Arctic lake ecosystems under a changing climate.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Refuge identification as a climate adaptation strategy to promote fish persistence during drought

Climate change is leading to global increases in extreme events, such as drought, that threaten the persistence of freshwater biodiversity. Identification and management of drought refuges, areas that promote resistance and resilience to drought, will be critical for preserving and recovering aquatic biodiversity in the face of climate change and increasing human water use. Although several reviews have addressed the effects of droughts and highlighted the role of refuges, a need remains on how to identify functional refuges that can be used in a drought management framework to support fish assemblages. We synthesize literature on drought refuges and propose a framework to identify and manage functional refuges that incorporate species physiological tolerances, behaviours and life-history strategies. Stream pools, perennial reaches and off-channel habitat were identified as important drought refuges for fish. The ability of refuges to improve species resistance and resilience to drought requires careful consideration of the biology of the target species and targeted management to promote persistence, quality and connectivity of refuges. Case studies illustrate that management of drought refuges can be challenging because of competing demands for water, incomplete knowledge of ecological requirements for target species and the increasing occurrence of multi-year droughts. Climate adaptation is increasingly important, and drought refuges can increase fish resistance and resilience to climate-related drought across the riverscape.

Fish and Fisheries↗
USGS2019

Effects of ocean climate on the length and condition of forage fish in the Gulf of Alaska

Climatic drivers of the size and body condition of forage fish in the North Pacific are poorly known. We hypothesized that length and condition of forage fish in the Gulf of Alaska (GoA) should vary in relation to ocean temperature on multiple scales. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed morphometric data for capelin (Mallotus catervarius) and Pacific sand lance (PSL; Ammodytes personatus) sampled by a seabird (Cerorhinca monocerata) in two regions of the GoA, 1993–2016. Based on previous studies, we predicted specifically that capelin length and body condition (Fulton’s K) would be negatively related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sea surface temperature (SST), whereas PSL length and condition would be positively related. Interannual variation in length and body condition was evaluated relative to seasonal values of ocean climate using regression. Forage fish length and condition varied interannually, between sampling regions, and were dependent on the size/age class of the fish sampled. As predicted, length and body condition of capelin (mostly age 1+) were negatively related to the PDO and SST. Relationships with ocean climate for PSL varied by size/age class: positive for putative age-0 fish and negative for putative age-1+ fish. We conclude that our hypothesis was supported for capelin and partially supported for PSL. This study demonstrates that ocean climate determines key morphometric characteristics of forage fish that may relate to interannual variation in the energetic value of prey, and provides an example of how seabirds can be used to obtain specimens for evaluations of potential prey quality.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO 2 and CH 4 could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process-based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS-TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005–2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water-table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO 2 emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.

Alaska↗
USGS2012

Climate change has indirect effects on resource use and overlap among coexisting bird species with negative consequences for their reproductive success

Climate change can modify ecological interactions, but whether it can have cascading effects throughout ecological networks of multiple interacting species remains poorly studied. Climate-driven alterations in the intensity of plant–herbivore interactions may have particularly profound effects on the larger community because plants provide habitat for a wide diversity of organisms. Here we show that changes in vegetation over the last 21 years, due to climate effects on plant–herbivore interactions, have consequences for songbird nest site overlap and breeding success. Browsing-induced reductions in the availability of preferred nesting sites for two of three ground nesting songbirds led to increasing overlap in nest site characteristics among all three bird species with increasingly negative consequences for reproductive success over the long term. These results demonstrate that changes in the vegetation community from effects of climate change on plant–herbivore interactions can cause subtle shifts in ecological interactions that have critical demographic ramifications for other species in the larger community.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2015

Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate-change related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2017

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2017

Legacy introductions and climatic variation explain spatiotemporal patterns of invasive hybridization in a native trout

Hybridization between invasive and native species, a significant threat to worldwide biodiversity, is predicted to increase due to climate-induced expansions of invasive species. Long-term research and monitoring are crucial for understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes that modulate the effects of invasive species. Using a large, multi-decade genetics dataset (N = 582 sites, 12,878 individuals) with high-resolution climate predictions and extensive stocking records, we evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of hybridization between native cutthroat trout and invasive rainbow trout, the world’s most widely introduced invasive fish, across the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. Historical effects of stocking and contemporary patterns of climatic variation were strongly related to the spread of hybridization across space and time. The probability of occurrence, extent of, and temporal changes in hybridization increased at sites in close proximity to historical stocking locations with greater rainbow trout propagule pressure, warmer water temperatures, and lower spring precipitation. Although locations with warmer water temperatures were more prone to hybridization, cold sites were not protected from invasion; 58% of hybridized sites had cold mean summer water temperatures (<11 ° C). Despite cessation of stocking over 40 years ago, hybridization increased over time at half (50%) of the locations with long-term data, the vast majority of which (74%) were initially non-hybridized, emphasizing the chronic, negative impacts of human-mediated hybridization. These results show that effects of climate change on biodiversity must be analyzed in the context of historical human impacts that set ecological and evolutionary trajectories.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2019

Winter climate change and the poleward range expansion of a tropical invasive tree (Brazilian pepper ‐ Shinus terebinthifolius)

Winter climate change is expected to lead to the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems, where tropical species expand poleward in response to a decrease in the intensity and duration of winter temperature extremes (i.e., freeze events). In the southeastern United States, freezing temperatures control the northern range limits of many invasive non‐native species. Here, we examine the influence of freezing temperatures and winter climate change on the northern range limits of an invasive non‐native tree — Schinus terebenthifolius (Brazilian pepper). Since introduction in the 1800s, Brazilian pepper has invaded ecosystems throughout south and central Florida to become the state's most widespread non‐native plant species. Although Brazilian pepper is sensitive to freezing temperatures, temperature controls on its northern distribution have not been adequately quantified. We used temperature and plant occurrence data to quantify the sensitivity of Brazilian pepper to freezing temperatures. Then, we examined the potential for range expansion under three alternative future climate scenarios (+2°C, +4°C, and +6°C). Our analyses identify a strong nonlinear sigmoidal relationship between minimum temperature and Brazilian pepper presence, with a discrete threshold temperature occurring near ‐11°C. Our future scenario analyses indicate that, in response to warming winter temperatures, Brazilian pepper is expected to expand northward and transform ecosystems in north Florida and across much of the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic coasts of the United States. These results underscore the importance of early detection and rapid response efforts to identify and manage the northward invasion of Brazilian pepper in response to climate change. Looking more broadly, our work highlights the need to anticipate and prepare for the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by tropical invasive species.

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2020

Potential changes to the biology and challenges to the management of invasive sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus in the Laurentian Great Lakes due to climate change

Control programs are implemented to mitigate the damage caused by invasive species worldwide. In the highly invaded Great Lakes, the climate is expected to become warmer with more extreme weather and variable precipitation, resulting in shorter iced‐over periods and variable tributary flows as well as changes to pH and river hydrology and hydrogeomorphology. We review how climate change influences physiology, behavior, and demography of a damaging invasive species, sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), in the Great Lakes, and the consequences for sea lamprey control efforts. Sea lamprey control relies on surveys to monitor abundance of larval sea lamprey in Great Lakes tributaries. The abundance of parasitic, juvenile sea lampreys in the lakes is calculated by surveying wounding rates on lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ), and trap surveys are used to enumerate adult spawning runs. Chemical control using lampricides (i.e., lamprey pesticides) to target larval sea lamprey and barriers to prevent adult lamprey from reaching spawning grounds are the most important tools used for sea lamprey population control. We describe how climate change could affect larval survival in rivers, growth and maturation in lakes, phenology and the spawning migration as adults return to rivers, and the overall abundance and distribution of sea lamprey in the Great Lakes. Our review suggests that Great Lakes sea lamprey may benefit from climate change with longer growing seasons, more rapid growth, and greater access to spawning habitat, but uncertainties remain about the future availability and suitability of larval habitats. Consideration of the biology of invasive species and adaptation of the timing, intensity, and frequency of control efforts is critical to the management of biological invasions in a changing world, such as sea lamprey in the Great Lakes.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2020

Insects in high-elevation streams: Life in extreme environments imperiled by climate change

Climate change is altering conditions in high-elevation streams worldwide, with largely unknown effects on resident communities of aquatic insects. Here, we review the challenges of climate change for high-elevation aquatic insects and how they may respond, focusing on current gaps in knowledge. Understanding current effects and predicting future impacts will depend on progress in three areas. First, we need better descriptions of the multivariate physical challenges and interactions among challenges in high-elevation streams, which include low but rising temperatures, low oxygen supply and increasing oxygen demand, high and rising exposure to ultraviolet radiation, low ionic strength, and variable but shifting flow regimes. These factors are often studied in isolation even though they covary in nature and interact in space and time. Second, we need a better mechanistic understanding of how physical conditions in streams drive the performance of individual insects. Environment-performance links are mediated by physiology and behavior, which are poorly known in high-elevation taxa. Third, we need to define the scope and importance of potential responses across levels of biological organization. Short-term responses are defined by the tolerances of individuals, their capacities to perform adequately across a range of conditions, and behaviors used to exploit local, fine-scale variation in abiotic factors. Longer term responses to climate change, however, may include individual plasticity and evolution of populations. Whether high-elevation aquatic insects can mitigate climatic risks via these pathways is largely unknown.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2021

Linking climate niches across seasons to assess population vulnerability in a migratory bird

Global loss of biodiversity has placed new urgency on the need to understand factors regulating species response to rapid environmental change. While specialists are often less resilient to rapid environmental change than generalists, species-level analyses may obscure the extent of specialization when locally adapted populations vary in climate tolerances. Until recently, quantification of the degree of climate specialization in migratory birds below the species level was hindered by a lack of genomic and tracking information, but recent technological advances have helped to overcome these barriers. Here we take a genome-wide genetic approach to mapping population-specific migratory routes and quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct populations of a migratory bird, the willow flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii ), which exhibits variation in the severity of population declines across its breeding range. While our sample size is restricted to the number of genetically distinct populations within the species, our results support the idea that locally adapted populations of the willow flycatcher with narrow climatic niches across seasons are already federally listed as endangered or in steep decline, while populations with broader climatic niches have remained stable in recent decades. Overall, this work highlights the value of quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct groups across time and space when attempting to understand the factors that facilitate or constrain the response of locally adapted populations to rapid environmental change.

Global Change Biology↗