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USGS2020

Identifying sustainable winter habitat for whooping cranes

The only self-sustaining population of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) requires a network of conservation lands for wintering along the Texas Gulf Coast (USA), so that this increasing population can reach downlisting under the Endangered Species Act (1,000 birds). We identify locations providing the highest quality and most sustainable wintering habitat for these whooping cranes through 2100 by predicting future habitats under three projections of sea level rise (0.6, 1.0 and 2.0 m by 2100), while incorporating two scenarios of future urban development. Our method combines predictions of future habitat quality with current whooping crane density estimates to calculate the potential carrying capacity of whooping cranes for each 10 m pixel within this 17,725 km 2 area. We found whooping cranes used locations with salt marsh at twice the rate of places lacking marsh. Areas > 15 km from development or < 2 km from estuarine water had increased crane use. Predicted area of salt marsh habitat oscillated across time given different rates of sea level rise. One urbanization scenario predicted 3% and the other 1% of the area converting to development by 2100. We estimated the study area can support 4414 (95% CI: 4096-4789) whooping cranes currently, 4795 (95% CI: 4402-5269) with 0.6 m sea level rise, 3559 (95% CI: 3352-3791) with 1 m sea level rise, and 2480 (95% CI: 2375-2592) with 2 m sea level rise by 2100, under the more aggressive urban development scenario. By anticipating climate-induced habitat loss with species population expansion we provide the requisite spatial information for conservation planners to build a sustainable conservation estate for downlisting whooping cranes. By coupling wildlife biology with conservation planning and on-the-ground implementation, our work exemplifies a proactive approach to recover endangered species.

Texas↗

USGS2016

Encounters with Pinyon-Juniper influence riskier movements in Greater Sage-Grouse across the Great Basin

Fine-scale spatiotemporal studies can better identify relationships between individual survival and habitat fragmentation so that mechanistic interpretations can be made at the population level. Recent advances in Global Positioning System (GPS) technology and statistical models capable of deconstructing high-frequency location data have facilitated interpretation of animal movement within a behaviorally mechanistic framework. Habitat fragmentation due to singleleaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla; hereafter pinyon) and Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma; hereafter juniper) encroachment into sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities is a commonly implicated perturbation that can adversely influence greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) demographic rates. Using an extensive GPS data set (233 birds and 282,954 locations) across 12 study sites within the Great Basin, we conducted a behavioral change point analysis and subsequently constructed Brownian bridge movement models from each behaviorally homogenous section. We found a positive relationship between modeled movement rate and probability of encountering pinyon-juniper with significant variation among age classes. The probability of encountering pinyon-juniper among adults was two and three times greater than that of yearlings and juveniles, respectively. However, the movement rate in response to the probability of encountering pinyon-juniper trees was 1.5 times greater for juveniles. We then assessed the risk of mortality associated with an interaction between movement rate and the probability of encountering pinyon-juniper using shared frailty models. During pinyon-juniper encounters, on average, juvenile, yearling, and adult birds experienced a 10.4%, 0.2%, and 0.3% reduction in annual survival probabilities. Populations that used pinyon-juniper habitats with a frequency ≥ 3.8 times the overall mean experienced decreases in annual survival probabilities of 71.1%, 0.9%, and 0.9%. This analytical framework identifies a likely behavioral mechanism behind how pinyon-juniper encroachment decreases habitat suitability for sage-grouse, whereby encountering pinyon-juniper stimulates faster yet riskier movements that may make sage-grouse more vulnerable to visually acute predators.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2024

Genomic characterization of highly pathogenic H5 avian influenza viruses from Alaska during 2022 provides evidence for genotype-specific trends of spatiotemporal and interspecies dissemination

The ongoing panzootic of highly pathogenic H5 clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza (HPAI) spread to North America in late 2021, with detections of HPAI viruses in Alaska beginning in April 2022. HPAI viruses have since spread across the state, affecting many species of wild birds as well as domestic poultry and wild mammals. To better understand the dissemination of HPAI viruses spatiotemporally and among hosts in Alaska and adjacent regions, we compared the genomes of 177 confirmed HPAI viruses detected in Alaska during April – December 2022. Results suggest multiple viral introductions into Alaska between November 2021 and August or September 2022, as well as dissemination to areas within and outside of the state. Viral genotypes differed in their spatiotemporal spread, likely influenced by timing of introductions relative to population immunity. We found evidence for dissemination of HPAI viruses between wild bird species, wild birds and domestic poultry, as well as wild birds and wild mammals. Continued monitoring for and genomic characterization of HPAI viruses in Alaska can improve our understanding of the evolution and dispersal of these economically costly and ecologically relevant pathogens.

Emerging Microbes & Infections↗

USGS2020

Black oystercatcher (Haematopus bachmani) population size, use of marine reserve complexes, and spatial distribution in Oregon

The Black Oystercatcher is a large shorebird found along the west coast of North America. Because of their small global population size, low reproductive rate, and dependence on rocky intertidal habitats, they are considered a “species of high conservation concern” and may act as an indicator of intertidal ecosystem health. In 2015, the Audubon Society of Portland initiated a 3-year shore-based population survey in Oregon building upon long-term monitoring previously conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and others. The objectives were to 1) Estimate the current minimum population of breeding Black Oystercatchers in Oregon and to compare that to previous estimates to better understand the population trend; 2) Document oystercatcher abundance adjacent to the Oregon’s system of Marine Reserves and Marine Protected Areas; and 3) Describe spatial distribution of breeding oystercatchers along the coast. We targeted all rocky shoreline habitats along Oregon’s coastline to perform abundance surveys each spring. A total of 75 survey routes were sampled using a standardized protocol. Trained volunteer community scientists conducted the majority of the surveys. We used N-mixture statistical models to estimate oystercatcher population size and probability of detection. Population estimates from the best fitting models were consistent, with estimates ranging from 506 oystercatchers in 2016 (95% credible interval, 463-560) to 629 (548-743) in 2015. These estimates indicated a small but stable population. Probability of detection remained consistent across years (ranging from 0.51 to 0.53). The effect of geographic region corresponded with greater bird density in the southern region of Oregon. Oystercatcher abundance adjacent to MR/MPAs accounted for between 12.4-18.3% of the total population estimate which was lower than expected (~25%). We recommend that subsequent conservation efforts directed on Black Oystercatchers in Oregon balance limiting human disturbance, particularly on the north and central coasts, with ensuring protection of core habitats on the south coast where much of the population resides.

Oregon↗

USGS1976

Determining population size of territorial red-winged blackbirds

Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds ( Agelaius phoeniceus ) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2001

The Foraging Ecology of Royal and Sandwich Terns in North Carolina, USA

Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2003

Short-term bird response to harvesting switchgrass for biomass in Iowa

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) provides habitat for grassland birds, but as contracts expire, some CRP fields might be returned to rowcrop production. One alternative to returning CRP fields to rowcrops is to produce switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) for use as a biomass fuel. Because the biomass is harvested during the fall and winter, breeding birds would not be directly affected by mowing the fields bur might be influenced by changes in vegetation structure resulting from the harvest. We evaluated bird abundances and nest success in totally harvested, partially harvested (alternating cut and uncut strips), and nonharvested CRP switchgrass fields in southern Iowa, USA, in 1999 and 2000. Species richness did not differ among harvest treatments. Abundances of most species (16 of 18) were not affected by the harvesting of switchgrass fields, and strip width did not affect bird numbers in strip-harvested fields. Grasshopper sparrows ( Ammodramus savannarum ) were more abundant in harvested portions of fields, and more sedge wrens ( Cistothorus platensis ) were recorded in nonharvested areas. The residual vegetation in nonharvested areas provided nest cover for species that begin nesting early in the season (e.g., northern harrier [Circus cyaneus] and ring-necked pheasant [ Phasianus colchicus ]). Nest success rates of grasshopper sparrows and common yellowthroats ( Geothlypis trichas ) were similar to those reported by other studies in switchgrass fields and might be sufficient to maintain stable populations. In general, switchgrass biomass fields create breeding habitat for some grassland birds, and a mixture of harvested and nonharvested fields would be more beneficial to grassland birds than totally harvesting or partially harvesting all switchgrass fields.

Iowa↗

USGS2018

Allowable take of black vultures in the eastern United States

Black vultures ( Coragyps atratus ) have been increasing in density and expanding their range in the eastern United States since at least the 1960s. In many areas, their densities have increased to the level where they are causing damage to property and livestock and the number of requests for allowable take permits has increased throughout these areas. The United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) requires updated information to help inform the number of take permits that could reduce conflicts while meeting obligations under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act. We expanded analyses used to estimate allowable take in Virginia to cover the range of black vultures in the eastern United States. We used the prescribed take level approach, which integrates demographic rates, population size estimates, and management objectives into an estimate of allowable take. We provide estimates of allowable take at 4 different scales: individual states, Bird Conservation Regions, USFWS administrative regions, and flyways. Our updated population time series provides evidence of rapidly increasing black vulture populations in many regions of the eastern United States, with an overall population estimate of approximately 4.26 million in 2015 in the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyways. Estimated allowable take ranged from a few hundred individuals per year in states at the northern end of the species range to approximately 287,000/year over the entire eastern United States. The USFWS has no legal mandate regarding the spatial scale at which take should be managed and we found little biological evidence of subpopulation structure for black vultures in the eastern United States. We suggest that allowable take for the species be implemented at a scale that meets stakeholder objectives (e.g., reducing conflict, and ensuring that black vultures are not extirpated from local areas) and is efficient for administrative and monitoring purposes.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2019

Coastal marsh bird habitat selection and responses to Hurricane Sandy

Wetlands provide numerous ecosystem functions such as water purification, nutrient cycling, and wildlife habitat. Avian populations are indicators of wetland health, and understanding their responses to extreme events can aid in targeting restoration efforts following disturbance. Here, we assessed the habitat selection of six coastal wetland bird species (American Bittern, Black-crowned Night Heron, Great Egret, Glossy Ibis, Snowy Egret, Yellow-crowned Night Heron) related to an extreme weather event, Hurricane Sandy. We used Discrete Choice Resource Selection Functions to estimate habitat selection. Results showed species probability of use increased with lower elevation and slope, and closer proximity to marsh, salt marsh, Phragmites , and protected areas. Estimates of marsh dieback from Hurricane Sandy occurred disproportionately in areas with higher probability of species use. Species were observed farther from the coast and at higher elevations in the four breeding seasons after (2013–2016) compared to before (2000–2012) Hurricane Sandy. Our results indicate that although high suitability areas were affected by the storm, these six wetland bird species may have responded by moving inland and to higher elevation. Understanding how coastal wetland birds respond to storm events is important for conservation planning, particularly as storm frequency is projected to increase in the future.

New Jersey↗

USGS2012

Evidence for population bottlenecks and subtle genetic structure in the yellow rail

The Yellow Rail (Coturnicops noveboracencis) is among the most enigmatic and least studied North American birds. Nesting exclusively in marshes and wetlands, it breeds largely east of the Rocky Mountains in the northern United States and Canada, but there is an isolated population in southern Oregon once believed extirpated. The degree of connectivity of the Oregon population with the main population is unknown. We used mitochondrial DNA sequences (mtDNA) and six microsatellite loci to characterize the Yellow Rail's genetic structure and diversity patterns in six areas. Our mtDNA-based analyses of genetic structure identified significant population differentiation, but pairwise comparison of regions identified no clear geographic trends. In contrast, microsatellites suggested subtle genetic structure differentiating the Oregon population from those in the five regions sampled in the Yellow Rail's main breeding range. The genetic diversity of the Oregon population was also the lowest of the six regions sampled, and Oregon was one of three regions that demonstrated evidence of recent population bottlenecks. Factors that produced population reductions may include loss of wetlands to development and agricultural conversion, drought, and wildfire. At this time, we are unable to determine if the high percentage (50%) of populations having experienced bottlenecks is representative of the Yellow Rail's entire range. Further genetic data from additional breeding populations will be required for this issue to be addressed.

The Condor↗

USGS2013

Estimating transmission of avian influenza in wild birds from incomplete epizootic data: implications for surveillance and disease spreac

Estimating disease transmission in wildlife populations is critical to understand host–pathogen dynamics, predict disease risks and prioritize surveillance activities. However, obtaining reliable estimates for free-ranging populations is extremely challenging. In particular, disease surveillance programs may routinely miss the onset or end of epizootics and peak prevalence, limiting the ability to evaluate infectious processes. We used profile likelihood to estimate the force of infection (FOI) in a low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIv) epizootic model from censored time series of LPAIv prevalence in hatch-year waterfowl (order Anseriformes) at postbreeding and migration sites in North America. We found a mean LPAIv FOI of 0·12 day −1 [95% CI, 0·00–0·39], corresponding to an incidence rate of 0·11 day −1 , with geographic heterogeneity (min–max: 0·02–0·23 day −1 ) among study sites. These high infection rates indicate that most hatch-year waterfowl are likely infected with LPAIv early in the fall migration. Comparison of model-predicted and observed immunity confirmed our assumption of naïve hatch-year waterfowl and suggested long-term immunity (>6 months) for adults. Using the mean LPAIv incidence rate, we predict a shorter and lower epizootic curve for highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv; 5 weeks with peak prevalence of 28% and 30% mortality) than LPAIv (8 weeks with peak prevalence of 50%). These findings indicate it is harder to detect HPAIv than LPAIv with swabs from live birds, which are commonly used during disease surveillance. Synthesis and applications . Our study highlights the potential of integrating incomplete surveillance data with epizootic models to quantify disease transmission and immunity. This modelling approach provides an important tool to understand spatial and temporal epizootic dynamics and inform disease surveillance. Our findings suggest focusing highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) surveillance on postbreeding areas where mortality of immunologically naïve hatch-year birds is most likely to occur, and collecting serology to enhance HPAIv detection. Our modelling approach can integrate various types of disease data facilitating its use with data from other surveillance programs (as illustrated by the estimation of infection rate during an HPAIv outbreak in mute swans Cygnus olor in Europe).

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2020

Population and harvest dynamics of midcontinent sandhill cranes

Sandhill cranes ( Antigone canadensis ) inhabiting the midcontinent of North America have been hunted since the 1960s under management goals of maintaining abundance, retaining geographic distribution, and maximizing sustainable harvest. Some biologists have raised concerns regarding harvest sustainability because sandhill cranes have lower reproductive rates than other game birds. We summarized demographic information in an age-structured matrix model to better understand population dynamics and harvest. Population indices and recovered harvest since the early 1980s suggest midcontinent sandhill cranes have experienced an average long-term annual growth of 0.9%; meanwhile, harvest has increased 1.8% annually. We found that adult survival and recruitment rates estimated from field data required modest adjustments (1-3%) so that model-derived growth rates matched growth estimated from a long-term survey (0.887 adult survival and 0.199 females per breeding female). Considering 0.9% long-term annual growth, sandhill cranes could be harvested at a rate of 6.6% if harvest was additive to natural mortality (assumed to be 0.05) or 11.3% if harvest and natural mortality was compensatory. Life-history characteristics for long-lived organisms and demographic evidence suggested that hunter harvest was primarily additive. Differential harvest rates of segments of midcontinent sandhill cranes derived from differential exposure to hunting suggested potentially unsustainable harvest for greater sandhill cranes ( A. c. tabida ) from 2 breeding segments. Overall, demographic evidence suggests that the harvest of midcontinent sandhill cranes has been managed sustainably. Monitoring activities that reduce nuisance variation and estimate vital and harvest rates by subspecies would support continued management of sandhill cranes that are of great interest to hunters and bird watchers.

Nebraska↗

USGS2005

Individual quality, survival variation and patterns of phenotypic selection on body condition and timing of nesting in birds

Questions about individual variation in “quality” and fitness are of great interest to evolutionary and population ecologists. Such variation can be investigated using either a random effects approach or an approach that relies on identifying observable traits that are themselves correlated with fitness components. We used the latter approach with data from 1,925 individual females of three species of ducks (tufted duck, Aythya fuligula ; common pochard, Aythya ferina ; northern shoveler, Anas clypeata ) sampled on their breeding grounds at Engure Marsh, Latvia, for over 15 years. Based on associations with reproductive output, we selected two traits, one morphological (relative body condition) and one behavioral (relative time of nesting), that can be used to characterize individual females over their lifetimes. We then asked whether these traits were related to annual survival probabilities of nesting females. We hypothesized quadratic, rather than monotonic, relationships based loosely on ideas about the likely action of stabilizing selection on these two traits. Parameters of these relationships were estimated directly using ultrastructural models embedded within capture-recapture-band-recovery models. Results provided evidence that both traits were related to survival in the hypothesized manner. For all three species, females that tended to nest earlier than the norm exhibited the highest survival rates, but very early nesters experienced reduced survival and late nesters showed even lower survival. For shovelers, females in average body condition showed the highest survival, with lower survival rates exhibited by both heavy and light birds. For common pochard and tufted duck, the highest survival rates were associated with birds of slightly above-average condition, with somewhat lower survival for very heavy birds and much lower survival for birds in relatively poor condition. Based on results from this study and previous work on reproduction, we conclude that nest initiation date and body condition covary with both reproductive and survival components of fitness. These associations lead to a positive covariance of these two fitness components within individuals and to the conclusion that these two traits are indeed correlates of individual quality.

Oecologia↗

USGS2010

A rapid, strong, and convergent genetic response to urban habitat fragmentation in four divergent and widespread vertebrates

Background: Urbanization is a major cause of habitat fragmentation worldwide. Ecological and conservation theory predicts many potential impacts of habitat fragmentation on natural populations, including genetic impacts. Habitat fragmentation by urbanization causes populations of animals and plants to be isolated in patches of suitable habitat that are surrounded by non-native vegetation or severely altered vegetation, asphalt, concrete, and human structures. This can lead to genetic divergence between patches and in turn to decreased genetic diversity within patches through genetic drift and inbreeding. Methodology/Principal Findings: We examined population genetic patterns using microsatellites in four common vertebrate species, three lizards and one bird, in highly fragmented urban southern California. Despite significant phylogenetic, ecological, and mobility differences between these species, all four showed similar and significant reductions in gene flow over relatively short geographic and temporal scales. For all four species, the greatest genetic divergence was found where development was oldest and most intensive. All four animals also showed significant reduction in gene flow associated with intervening roads and freeways, the degree of patch isolation, and the time since isolation. Conclusions/Significance: Despite wide acceptance of the idea in principle, evidence of significant population genetic changes associated with fragmentation at small spatial and temporal scales has been rare, even in smaller terrestrial vertebrates, and especially for birds. Given the striking pattern of similar and rapid effects across four common and widespread species, including a volant bird, intense urbanization may represent the most severe form of fragmentation, with minimal effective movement through the urban matrix.

California↗

USGS2017

Demographic consequences of nest box use for Red-footed Falcons Falco vespertinus in Central Asia

Nest box programs are frequently implemented for the conservation of cavity-nesting birds, but their effectiveness is rarely evaluated in comparison to birds not using nest boxes. In the European Palearctic, Red-footed Falcon Falco vespertinus populations are both of high conservation concern and are strongly associated with nest box programs in heavily managed landscapes. We used a 21-year monitoring dataset collected on 753 nesting attempts by Red-footed Falcons in unmanaged natural or semi-natural habitats to provide basic information on this poorly known species; to evaluate long-term demographic trends; and to evaluate response of demographic parameters of Red-footed Falcons to environmental factors including use of nest boxes. We observed significant differences among years in laying date, offspring loss, and numbers of fledglings produced, but not in egg production. Of these four parameters, offspring loss and, to a lesser extent, number of fledglings exhibited directional trends over time. Variation in laying date and in numbers of eggs were not well explained by any one model, but instead by combinations of models, each with informative terms for nest type. Nevertheless, laying in nest boxes occurred 2.10 ± 0.70 days earlier than in natural nests. In contrast, variation in both offspring loss and numbers of fledglings produced were fairly well explained by a single model including terms for nest type, nest location, and an interaction between the two parameters (65% and 81% model weights respectively), with highest offspring loss in nest boxes on forest edges. Because, for other species, earlier laying dates are associated with more fit individuals, this interaction highlighted a possible ecological trap, whereby birds using nest boxes on forest edges lay eggs earlier but suffer greater offspring loss and produce lower numbers of fledglings than do those in other nesting settings. If nest boxes increase offspring loss for Red-footed Falcons in heavily managed landscapes where populations are at greater risk, or for the many other species of rare or endangered birds supported by nest box programs, these processes could have important demographic and conservation consequences.

Ibis↗

USGS2018

Hematological indices of injury to lightly oiled birds from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Avian mortality events are common following large‐scale oil spills. However, the sublethal effects of oil on birds exposed to light external oiling are not clearly understood. We found that American oystercatchers (area of potential impact n = 42, reference n = 21), black skimmers (area of potential impact n = 121, reference n = 88), brown pelicans (area of potential impact n = 91, reference n = 48), and great egrets (area of potential impact n = 57, reference n = 47) captured between 20 June 2010 and 23 February 2011 following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill experienced oxidative injury to erythrocytes, had decreased volume of circulating erythrocytes, and showed evidence of a regenerative hematological response in the form of increased reticulocytes compared with reference populations. Erythrocytic inclusions consistent with Heinz bodies were present almost exclusively in birds from sites impacted with oil, a finding pathognomonic for oxidative injury to erythrocytes. Average packed cell volumes were 4 to 19% lower and average reticulocyte counts were 27 to 40% higher in birds with visible external oil than birds from reference sites. These findings provide evidence that small amounts of external oil exposure are associated with hemolytic anemia. Furthermore, we found that some birds captured from the area impacted by the spill but with no visible oiling also had erythrocytic inclusion bodies, increased reticulocytes, and reduced packed cell volumes when compared with birds from reference sites. Thus, birds suffered hematologic injury despite no visible oil at the time of capture. Together, these findings suggest that adverse effects of oil spills on birds may be more widespread than estimates based on avian mortality or severe visible oiling.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2014

Estimates of annual survival, growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucura ), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( λ ¯ "> λ ¯ = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.

Colorado↗

USGS2010

Potential misuse of avian density as a conservation metric

: Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual- and population-level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density-independent and density-dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density-dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels.

Conservation Biology↗