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At least 1,135 records · Page 63Linked to original sources

American white pelicans breeding in the northern plains: productivity, behavior, movements, and migration

Nearly half of American white pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos; hereafter pelicans) are believed to nest in several large colonies in the northern plains, yet few studies had been conducted on pelicans in this region until research began in 2004 to investigate the impact of West Nile virus (WNV) on their chicks. The work reported here focused on two of the largest colonies in the region, at Bitter Lake, South Dakota, and Chase Lake, North Dakota, during 2005–10. Pelicans usually began arriving at these two breeding colonies in early April. Egg-laying began during mid-April and nest initiations continued through May. The number of nests documented at these colonies reached a high of about 15,400 at Bitter Lake and 17,300 at Chase Lake, both in 2006. During 2006–8, annual variation in hatching success was high (40 to 100 percent) at video-monitored nests, averaging 61 percent for 82 nests at Bitter Lake and 57 percent for 88 nests at Chase Lake. Although most nests contained two eggs, of those where two chicks hatched, both chicks survived to the crèche stage (about 15 days old) at only two nests. Severe weather events, disturbance, and siblicide were documented causes of early season (before mid-July) mortalities. In the late season (mid-July to fledging), WNV was the most important factor contributing to chick mortality. Nests were nearly always attended by one adult during incubation and brooding. Adults typically exchanged places at the nest around mid-day in all 3 years, apparently taking advantage of thermals to gain altitude for travel to and from foraging areas. The mean time of exchange differed by about an hour between Bitter Lake (1328 central standard time, CST) and Chase Lake (1434 CST) colonies. During incubation, nearly 3 days often passed between adult nest exchanges; after chicks hatched, exchanges usually occurred daily. Exchanges were more frequent and chicks were fed more often at successful nests than at failed nests. Adult pelicans with satellite transmitters that incorporated a Global Positioning System (GPS) foraged primarily in shallow areas of lakes and semipermanent wetlands. These areas coincide with typical habitats of crayfish, salamanders, and rough fish, which were also the foods most commonly seen in pelican regurgitates at the colonies. Several satellite-tracked pelicans made frequent round trips between their breeding colony and foraging areas, most likely to provision their chicks. Typical distances travelled to foraging sites ranged from 30 kilometers to over 90 kilometers. Return times to the colonies (about 1300 and 1500 CST at Bitter Lake and Chase Lake, respectively) supported the colony difference documented at video-monitored nests. Of 28 pelicans tagged with GPS satellite transmitters in 2005–6, 26 survived the first summer and migrated south during fall. Nineteen of these returned to the breeding region (defined as north of the latitude of South Dakota’s southern border) in at least 1 year during 2006–9; collectively, they returned to the breeding region 33 times. Very few pelicans returned to the colony where they had been tagged; many did not breed and concentrated their activities at wetland complexes in South Dakota and North Dakota, but few tagged pelicans temporally overlapped at specific sites. During 2005–9, tagged pelicans collectively made 56 migratory trips south in the fall. Most wintered in Mexico, near the gulf coast and elsewhere; others wintered in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida. Individuals typically returned to the same general areas each winter. Individuals rarely followed the same migratory path on their way south and north, but they often roughly repeated southerly or northerly routes among years. Ensuring a sustainable population of American white pelicans requires identification and mitigation of known threats. The work described herein has identified WNV and severe weather as important factors that potentially limit reproductive success and recruitment in the northern plains. Managers in this region could assess the influence of such factors on productivity at key colonies by annually obtaining aerial photographs during peak nesting, and estimating numbers of chicks fledged from aerial photographs or ground counts. Banding a subsample of chicks in late June or early July, followed by a sweep for bands at the end of the season, would allow estimation of mortality rates of older chicks (that normally would fledge) and help track the influence of WNV or other mortality factors over time and varying environmental conditions.

North Dakota;South Dakota↗

Neogene and Quaternary foraminifera and paleoenvironments of a corehole from Horn Island, Mississippi

The only semipermanent surface water available on the Southern High Plains plateau of Texas and New Mexico is contained in saline lakes and in the playa lakes that form in shallow depressions, called playa basins, following heavy rainfall. The playas generally are accepted as the main source of recharge to the underlying High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer of the region, and they constitute the major wildlife habitat on the Southern High Plains. Their use as water sources, holding ponds, and waste-disposal sites by agricultural and industrial operations may potentially lead to ground-water contamination and habitat degradation. Therefore, playa lakes will play an essential role in the collection of surface-water quality and ecological data for the Southern High Plains study unit of the National Water-Quality Assessment program of the U.S. Geological Survey.

Open-File Report↗

Moving from awareness to action: Advancing climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning for Idaho and Montana National Forests

The rugged landscapes of northern Idaho and western Montana support biodiverse ecosystems, and provide a variety of natural resources and services for human communities. However, the benefits provided by these ecosystems may be at risk as changing climate magnifies existing stressors and allows new stressors to emerge. Preparation for and response to these potential changes can be most effectively addressed through multi-stakeholder partnerships, evaluating vulnerability of important resources to climate change, and developing response and preparation strategies for managing key natural resources in a changing world. This project will support climate-smart conservation and management across forests of northern Idaho and western Montana through three main components: (1) fostering partnerships among scientists, land managers, regional landowners, conservation practitioners, and the public; (2) assessing the vulnerability of a suite of regionally important resources to climate change and other stressors; and (3) creating a portfolio of adaptation strategies and actions to help resource managers prepare for and respond to the likely impacts of climate change. The results of this project will be used to inform the upcoming land management plan revisions for national forests, helping ensure that the most effective and robust conservation and management strategies are implemented to preserve our natural resources.

Idaho, Montana↗

The wood frog (Rana sylvatica): a technical conservation assessment

Overall, the wood frog (Rana sylvatica) is ranked G5, secure through most of its range (NatureServe Explorer 2002). However, it is more vulnerable in some states within the USDA Forest Service Region 2: S3 (vulnerable) in Colorado, S2 (imperiled) in Wyoming, and S1 (critically imperiled in South Dakota (NatureServe Explorer 2002); there are no records for wood frogs in Kansas or Nebraska. Primary threats to wood frog populations are habitat fragmentation (loss of area, edge effects, and isolation) and habitat loss due to anthropogenic causes (e.g., wetland draining, grazing) and natural changes as habitat succession occurs. Wood frogs are most conspicuous at breeding sites early in the spring, when snow and ice are often still present at pond margins. They tolerate frezzing and hibernate terrestrially in shallow depressions, under leaf litter, grasses, logs, or rocks (Bagdonas 1968, Bellis 1961a); there are no reports of aquatic hibernation for this species (Licht 1991, Pinder et al. 1992). Wood frogs require semi-permanent and temporary pools of natural origin and adjacent wet meadows, and landscape alterations that shorten the hydroperiod of ponds can result in catastrophic tadpole mortality. Plant communities utilized by wood frogs in the Rocky Mountains are hydric to mesic and include sedge and grass meadows, willow hummocks, aspen groves, lodgepole pine forests, and woodlands with leaf litter and/or herbaceous understory (Maslin 1947, Bellis 1961a, Roberts and Lewin 1979, Haynes and Aird 1981). Wood frogs are likely to disperse into surrounding marsh and woodlands soon after oviposition (Heatwole 1961, Haynes and Aird 1981). In the arly fall, wood frogs begin to seek hibernacula at or just below the ground surface, generally in upland forest habitat (Regosin et al. 2003). Licht (1991) demonstrated shelter-seeking behavior at 1.5 [degrees] C. Once they have concealed themselves for hibernation, wood frogs are very difficult to detecta?|

Report↗

A Study of earthquake losses in the Puget Sound, Washington, area

The Puget Sound Basin has a history of frequent seismic activity, including two recent damaging events. The greatest extent of urban development and the most densely populated area generally correspond to the area where the greatest energy release has been experienced. For this study two earthquakes have been simulated, each having magnitude 7.5, a reasonable maximum value for this area. Analysis of the events indicate that under the worst condition as many as 2,200 people would die, and 8,700 additional persons would suffer injuries requiring hospitalization or immediate medical treatment. Such casualties would occur under the worst conditions of exposure, as during the rush hours, but could be approximately as great at any time during the working day. It is possible that as many as 23,500 people would be homeless or would require temporary shelter pending reestablishment or relocation. Conditions of exposure would be altered during the nighttime, causing a drastic reduction in casulaty potentials to a level of about 5-10 percent of the daytime losses. Thus, the time of greatest concern is during the normal working day, and the areas of concern are the highly urbanized sections of the Puget Sound Basin. This study is intended to inform those agencies serving the region of potential hazard to people, structures, and lifeline functions, in such a way that the administrators of emergency services can proceed with confidence in planning response to earthquake disaster. Figure 1 shows the extent of the study area and the location of the epicenters of the postulated earthquakes. A comparison of the two isoseismal maps as they apply to each county, in tables 1 through 6, emphasizes the marked change in intensity at a site as the simulated earthquake is moved from a close to a distant location. The Modified Mercalli Intensity scale is defined on page 284. The report is concerned not only with human casualties and displacement, but also with impairment or destruction of essential facilities critical to the continuing normal functioning of the area. This includes hospitals and medical personnel, police and fire department equipment and personnel, communications, and utilities. The total damage profile was developed with careful consideration of conditions of the seismicity, geological history, population density and distribution, and physical status of structural and lifeline installations throughout the region. There is a potential for broad fluctuation in the casualty figures resulting from the chance positioning of people at the time of the occurrence of the earthquake. An example is that of the Lafayette Elementary School in West Seattle, where, in the 1949 earthquake, a large brick gable over the entry collapsed directly onto an area normally used for assembly of pupils. Such assembly regularly occurred at 11:55 a.m. The earthquake occurred at 11:57 a.m., but fortunately during the spring vacation. Following a large earthquake, effective remedial steps to maintain or to return to operation the essential public services will depend upon the prompt and informed actions of public agencies. Response planning should include not only consideration of disaster problems within a particular jurisdiction but also sharing of assistance with neighboring jurisdictions. Moderate response requirements experienced in one area can free resources to aid communities in more heavily damaged portions of the affected area. The damage profile is quite different among the six counties within the study. The remainder of the summary is devoted to a brief general assessment of possible problems in each of the counties. A detailed development and presentation of each of the problems is covered in the text of the report.

Washington↗

Water pressure and ground vibrations induced by water guns near Brandon Road Lock and Dam and Lemont, Illinois

Multiple geophysical sensors were used to characterize the underwater pressure field and ground vibrations of a seismic water gun and its suitability to deter the movement of Asian carps (particularly the silver [ Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ] and bighead [ Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ] carps) while ensuring the integrity of surrounding structures. The sensors used to collect this information were blast-rated hydrophones, surface- and borehole-mounted geophones, and fixed accelerometers. Results from two separate studies are discussed in this report. The Brandon Road study took place in May 2014, in the Des Plaines River, in a concrete-walled channel downstream of the Brandon Road Lock and Dam near Joliet, Illinois. The Lemont study took place in June 2014, in a segment of the dolomite setblock-lined Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Lemont, Illinois. Two criteria were evaluated to assess the potential deterrence to carp migration, and to minimize the expected effect on nearby structures from discharge of the seismic water gun. The first criterion was a 5-pound-per-square-inch (lb/in 2 ) limit for dynamic underwater pressure variations. The second criterion was a maximum velocity and acceleration disturbance of 0.75 inch per second (in/s) for sensitive machinery (such as the lock gates and pumps) and 2.0 in/s adjacent to canal walls, respectively. The criteria were based on previous studies of fish responses to dynamic pressure variations, and effects of vibrations on the structural integrity of concrete walls. The Brandon Road study evaluated the magnitude and extent of the pressure field created by two water gun configurations in the concrete-walled channel downstream of the lock where channel depths ranged from 11 to 14 feet (ft). Data from a single 80-cubic-inch (in³) water gun set at 6 ft below water surface (bws) produced a roughly cylindrical 5-lb/in 2 pressure field 20 ft in radius, oriented vertically, with the radius decreasing to less than 15 ft at the water surface. A combination of two 80-in 3 water guns set at 6 and 8 ft, respectively, produced a similarly shaped 5 lb/in 2 pressure field 30 ft in radius. Neither of the water gun configurations exceeded the given threshold of 5 lb/in 2 above the static pressure along the walls of the canal at the 700 lb/in 2 water gun input pressure. Velocity and acceleration data were collected simultaneously with the underwater pressure data to understand the response of adjacent canal walls to the water gun firings. Maximum velocity and acceleration were 0.239 in/s and 0.0188 feet per second squared (ft/s 2 ), respectively. The Lemont study replicated and expanded upon work done in 2011. The pressure field created by the water gun was evaluated in a deeper environment (about 25 ft of water depth) than that of the Brandon Road study. To replicate the 2011 study, data were collected with the same water gun placements and input pressure, but static underwater pressure monitoring was added. Two 80-in 3 water guns were suspended below a platform at depths of 4 and 14 ft bws. Pressure was lower when the gun suspended at 4 ft bws was fired as compared to firing the single gun suspended at 14 ft bws. Firing both guns simultaneously produced similar pressures to the single gun suspended at 14 ft bws. Data were collected to assess the pressure field produced by two 80-in 3 water guns separated by 80 ft and suspended at a depth of 14 ft bws. The spatial extent of the 5-lb/in 2 threshold varied substantially with gun input air pressure. Firing the water gun with an air pressure of 2,000 lb/in 2 generated a pressure field greater than the threshold at all but one location in the measured region. Additionally, the water gun with an air pressure of 1,000 lb/in 2 did not reach the threshold anywhere in the measured region. Maximum velocity and acceleration were 0.304 in/s and 0.015 ft/s 2 , respectively.

Illinois↗

Assessment of soil calcium status in red spruce forests in the northeastern United States

Long-term changes in concentrations of available Ca in soils of red spruce forests have been documented, but remaining questions about the magnitude and regional extent of these changes have precluded an assessment of the current and future status of soil Ca. To address this problem, soil samples were collected in 1992-93 from 12 sites in New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine to provide additional data necessary to synthesize all available research results on soil Ca in red spruce forests. Sites were chosen to encompass the range of environmental conditions experienced by red spruce. Concentrations of exchangeable Ca ranged from 2.13 to 21.6 cmol(c) kg-1 in the Oa horizon, and from 0.11 to 0.68 cmol(c) kg-1 in the upper 10 cm of the B horizon. These measurements expanded the range of exchangeable Ca reported in the literature for both horizons in northeastern red spruce forests. Exchangeable Ca was the largest Ca fraction in the forest floor at most sites (92% of acid-extractable Ca), but mineral Ca was the largest fraction at the three sites that also had the highest mineral-matter concentrations. The primary factor causing variability in Ca concentrations among sites was the mineralogy of parent material, but exchangeable concentrations in the B horizon of all sites were probably reduced by acidic deposition. Because the majority of Ca in the forest floor is in a readily leachable form, and Ca inputs to the forest floor from the mineral soil and atmospheric deposition have been decreasing in recent decades, the previously documented decreases in Ca concentrations in the forest floor over previous decades may extend into the future.

Biogeochemistry↗

40Ar/39Ar Geochronology, Isotope Geochemistry (Sr, Nd, Pb), and petrology of alkaline lavas near Yampa, Colorado: migration of alkaline volcanism and evolution of the northern Rio Grande rift

Volcanic rocks near Yampa, Colorado (USA), represent one of several small late Miocene to Quaternary alkaline volcanic fields along the northeast margin of the Colorado Plateau. Basanite, trachybasalt, and basalt collected from six sites within the Yampa volcanic field were investigated to assess correlations with late Cenozoic extension and Rio Grande rifting. In this paper we report major and trace element rock and mineral compositions and Ar, Sr, Nd, and Pb isotope data for these volcanic rocks. High-precision 40Ar/39Ar geochronology indicates westward migration of volcanism within the Yampa volcanic field between 6 and 4.5 Ma, and the Sr, Nd, and Pb isotope values are consistent with a primary source in the Proterozoic subcontinental lithospheric mantle. Relict olivine phenocrysts have Mg- and Ni-rich cores, whereas unmelted clinopyroxene cores are Na and Si enriched with finely banded Ca-, Mg-, Al-, and Ti-enriched rims, thus tracing their crystallization history from a lithospheric mantle source region to one in contact with melt prior to eruption. A regional synthesis of Neogene and younger volcanism within the Rio Grande rift corridor, from northern New Mexico to southern Wyoming, supports a systematic overall southwest migration of alkaline volcanism. We interpret this Neogene to Quaternary migration of volcanism toward the northeast margin of the Colorado Plateau to record passage of melt through subvertical zones within the lithosphere weakened by late Cenozoic extension. If the locus of Quaternary alkaline magmatism defines the current location of the Rio Grande rift, it includes the Leucite Hills, Wyoming. We suggest that alkaline volcanism in the incipient northern Rio Grande rift, north of Leadville, Colorado, represents melting of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle in response to transient infiltration of asthenospheric mantle into deep, subvertical zones of dilational crustal weakness developed during late Cenozoic extension that have been migrating toward, and subparallel to, the northeast margin of the Colorado Plateau since the middle Miocene. Quaternary volcanism within this northern Rio Grande rift corridor is evidence that the rift is continuing to evolve.

Colorado↗

Assessment of water and proppant quantities associated with petroleum production from the Eagle Ford Group, Gulf Coast, Texas, 2019

Building on a geology-based assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable petroleum resources in the Eagle Ford Group in south Texas, the U.S. Geological Survey has estimated the required water and proppant demands and formation water production volumes associated with possible future development of these petroleum resources. The results of the water and proppant assessment are presented here, along with related drilling information and relevant water budget volumes for the region.

Texas↗

Hydrogeomorphic Regions of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: HGMR

Generalized lithology (rock type) and physiography based on geologic formations were used to characterize hydrgeomorphic regions (HGMR) within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. These HGMRs were used in conjunction with existing data to assess the significance of ground-water discharge as a source of nitrate load to nontidal streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed (Bachman and others, 1998). This work is part of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Chesapeake Bay initative to develop an understanding and provide scientific information for the restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed (Phillips and Caughron, 1997).

Maryl↗

Liquefaction evidence for the strength of ground motions resulting from Late Holocene Cascadia subduction earthquakes, with emphasis on the event of 1700 A.D.

During the past decade, paleoseismic studies done by many researchers in the coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest have shown that regional downdropping and subsequent tsunami inundation occurred in response to a major earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone. This earthquake occurred almost certainly in 1700 A.D., and is believed by many to have been of M 8.5-9 or perhaps larger. In order to characterize the severity of ground motions from this earthquake, we report on a field search and analysis of seismically induced liquefaction features. The search was conducted chiefly along the banks of islands in the lowermost Columbia River of Oregon and Washington and in stream banks along smaller rivers throughout southwestern Washington. To a lesser extent, the investigation included rivers in central Oregon. Numerous small- to moderate-sized liquefaction features from the earthquake of 1700 A.D. were found in some regions, but there was a notable lack of liquefaction features in others. The regional distribution of liquefaction features is evaluated as a function of geologic and geotechnical factors in different field settings near the coast. Our use of widely different field settings, each in which we independently assess the strength of shaking and arrive at the same conclusion, enhances the credibility of our interpretations. Our regional inventory of liquefaction features and preliminary geotechnical analysis of liquefaction potential provide substantial evidence for only moderate levels of ground shaking in coastal Washington and Oregon during the subduction earthquake of 1700 A.D. Additionally, it appears that a similar conclusion can be reached for an earlier subduction earthquake that occurred within the past 1100 years, which also has been characterized by others as being M 8 or greater. On the basis of more limited data for older events collected in our regional study, it appears that seismic shaking has been no stronger throughout Holocene time. Our interpreted levels of shaking are considerably lower than current estimates in the technical literature that use theoretical and statistical models to predict ground motions of subduction earthquakes in the Cascadia region. Because of the influence of estimated ground motions from Cascadia subduction-zone earthquakes on seismic hazard evaluations, more paleoliquefaction and geotechnical field studies are needed to definitively bracket the strength of shaking. With further work, it should be possible to extend the record of seismic shaking through much of Holocene time in large portions of Washington and Oregon.

Oregon, Washington↗

Estimated water use and availability in the East Narragansett Bay study area, Rhode Island, 1995-99

Water availability became a concern in Rhode Island during a drought in 1999, and further investigation was needed to assess the current demands on the hydrologic system from withdrawals during periods of little to no precipitation. The low ground-water levels and streamflows measured in Rhode Island prompted initiation of a series of studies on water use and availability in each major drainage area in Rhode Island for the period 1995–99. The investigation of the East Narragansett Bay area is the last of these studies. The East Narragansett Bay study area (130.9 square miles) includes small sections of the Ten Mile and Westport River Basins in Rhode Island. The area was divided into three regions (islands and contiguous land areas separated by the bay) within each of which the freshwater water use and availability were assessed. During the study period from 1995 through 1999, three major public water suppliers in the study area withdrew 7.601 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) from ground-water and surface-water reservoirs. The estimated water withdrawals by minor public water suppliers during the study period were 0.063 Mgal/d. Total self-supply domestic, industrial, commercial, and agricultural withdrawals from the study area averaged 1.891 Mgal/d. Total water use in the study area averaged 16.48 Mgal/d, of which about 8.750 Mgal/d was imported from other basins. The average return flow to freshwater within the basin was 2.591 Mgal/d, which included effluent from permitted facilities and septic systems. The average return flow to saltwater (Narragansett Bay) outside of the basin was about 45.21 Mgal/d and included discharges by permitted facilities (wastewater-treatment plants and Rhode Island Pollutant Discharge Elimination Systems). The PART program, a computerized hydrographseparation application, was used for the data collected at two selected index stream-gaging stations in the East Narragansett Bay study area to determine water availability on the basis of the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles of the total base flow; the base flow for the 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario; and the base flow for the Aquatic Base Flow scenario for both stations. Base flows in the study area were lowest in September for the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles. The safe yields determined for the surface-water reservoirs (14.10 Mgal/d) were added to the estimated available ground water (gross yield) in the Southeastern Narragansett and East Narragansett Islands regions to give the total available water. The water availability in the study area at the 50th percentile ranged from 33.18 Mgal/d in September to 94.62 Mgal/d in June, water availability for the 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario at the 50th percentile ranged from 21.87 Mgal/d in September to 83.03 Mgal/d in June, and water availability for the Aquatic Base Flow scenario at the 50th percentile ranged from 14.10 Mgal/d in August and September to 65.48 Mgal/d in June. Because water withdrawals and use are greater during the summer than at other times of the year, water availability in June, July, August, and September was compared to water withdrawals in the three regions. For the study period, the withdrawals in July were higher than in the other summer months. For the 50th percentile, the ratios of water withdrawn to water available were close to one in August for the estimated basic and Aquatic Base Flow scenarios and in September for the estimated 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario. For the 25th percentile, the ratios were close to one in August for the estimated basic and for the 7-day, 10-year low-flow scenario, and were close to one in July for the estimated Aquatic Base Flow scenario. A long-term water budget was calculated for the East Narragansett Bay study area to identify and assess inflows and outflows by region. The water withdrawals and return flows used in the budget were from 1995 through 1999. Total inflow and outflow were calculated separately for each region. Inflow was assumed to equal outflow; the total water budget was 292.1 Mgal/d for the study area. Precipitation and return flow were 99 and less than 1 percent of the total estimated inflow to the study area, respectively. Evapotranspiration, streamflow, and water withdrawals were 47, 49, and 3 percent of the total outflow from the study area, respectively.

Rhode Island↗

Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is the rapid detection of an earthquake and issuance of an alert or notification to people and vulnerable systems likely to experience potentially damaging ground shaking. The level of ground shaking that is considered damaging is defined by the specific application; for example, manufacturing equipment may experience damage at a lower intensity ground shaking than would cause damage to a building. Along the West Coast of the United States, the warning times for ground shaking could range as high as tens of seconds for moderate levels of ground shaking, or potentially longer, if a lower ground-shaking threshold is used to issue alerts. However, it is not always possible to provide advance warning of ground shaking, particularly for locations close to an earthquake that are most likely to experience very strong ground shaking. EEW alerts may be useful to individuals who can use a few seconds to move to a safe zone and to electromechanical systems that can take automatic actions to reduce damage and injuries. An EEW system, ShakeAlert, has been under development in the United States since 2006. Federal and State governments, as well as the private sector, are now investing in the ShakeAlert prototype system that will, when completed, become an operational public system for the West Coast of the United States. While the current prototype is delivering alerts to test users, improvements to the accuracy, timeliness, and utility of the alerts are needed. For this reason, it is essential that the ShakeAlert system be continuously improved through targeted research, involving not only the current ShakeAlert partner organizations, but also the broader scientific, engineering, and emergencyresponse communities. To this end, this report describes the opportunities for improvement that can be addressed through research and development over the next 5 years. Our recommendations are organized into four areas: (1) understand EEW capabilities and user needs, (2) make alerts as fast and accurate as possible, (3) ensure reliability when it counts, and (4) explore the use of new instrumentation. The first challenge is to understand EEW capabilities and user needs. EEW must deliver actionable information to people and to automated systems to mitigate short- and longterm impacts of damaging ground shaking, so development of EEW must be motivated by the needs of users. Within this challenge, we must study the technical capabilities and limitations of EEW in general, and the ShakeAlert system specifically. This includes development of performance metrics that assess the timeliness and accuracy of alerts to understand the value and utility of the ShakeAlert EEW product(s) for various user groups, including different industry sectors, emergency-management agencies, and the public. Research is needed to define the alerting choices that maximize the utility of the system for users and to determine what the available communication pathways are for providing timely alert information. Additionally, we engage users to assess how alerts will be used by different sectors to mitigate losses and to inform EEW product design. Further, social-science research is needed to develop alert messaging, including what relevant prior and follow-up information are required, to ensure effective use of alerts. The second challenge is to make alerts as fast and as accurate as possible. The timeliness and accuracy of an EEW alert is important because it will set in motion a series of actions and downstream products. An EEW alert will trigger notification across emergency-alert systems and across multiple communication channels to populations in impacted regions. The EEW alert region may grow as the earthquake fault-rupture length increases, and the EEW system’s characterization of it, evolves. We must continue research into new or improved seismic and geodetic waveform-processing methods necessary to rapidly characterize the expected ground shaking and associated uncertainties. It is important to thoroughly evaluate whether new methods improve alerts through more accurate ground-motion estimates and (or) reduced latencies (that is, longer warning times). New methods could include tracking the extent of a large rupture in real time (known as finite-fault algorithms) and ground-motionbased EEW algorithms. Additionally, ground motion predictions could be optimized for each earthquake as the earthquake fault rupture progresses by using, for example, event terms to shift ground-motion curves for more (or less) energetic ruptures. The third challenge is to ensure reliability when it counts. This challenge requires us to explore approaches that assess the expected performance of ShakeAlert across the range of earthquake magnitudes, locations, and depths that may occur within the alerting region. Large, damaging earthquakes and their associated aftershock sequences matter most for hazard and for EEW, but these large-earthquake sequences occur infrequently. We expect ShakeAlert to respond robustly to these large-earthquake sequences despite potentially long periods of relative seismic quiescence in the intervening years, and in spite of inevitable communication challenges that arise during and after a large earthquake. We must develop methods to utilize the broadest available datasets to test EEW performance, including ground-motion data recorded in other parts of the world. The observational period for large, damaging earthquakes in any particular region has been short in comparison to estimated large-earthquake recurrence times. Ground-motion records for very large, damaging western United States events and major aftershock sequences do not yet exist, nor do data exist for all potential sources of noise and spurious signals that ShakeAlert must be “tuned” to reject. In addition, robust synthetic data could provide the flexibility to test a wider range of earthquake magnitude, tectonic-setting, and noise scenarios than are covered by existing observational data. Synthetic ground-motion data must be thoroughly vetted against records of smaller magnitude earthquakes to ensure that they accurately capture both the onset and the amplitude of the ground shaking. The final challenge is to explore the use of new instrumentation. The development of EEW around the world to date has focused on the use of high-quality, scientific-grade seismic and geodetic instrumentation. The use of additional types of instrumentation or information may also improve EEW products by filling gaps in sensor coverage in countries that already have dense seismic networks or enable EEW in countries without such networks. We must keep up with these developments and continuously assess their value in supplementing existing EEW systems, such as ShakeAlert, or enabling EEW where such systems do not exist. Such developments include low-cost instrumentation with microelectromechanical system (MEMS) sensors and global positioning system (GPS)/global navigation satellite system (GNSS) antennas embedded in low-cost consumer electronics, sea-floor seismometers, geodetic instrumentation deployed along the Cascadia and Alaska megathrust margins of western North America, and borehole strainmeters that are already deployed across the region.

Open-File Report↗

Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01 report

Gas hydrate is a naturally occurring “ice-like” combination of natural gas and water that has the potential to serve as an immense resource of natural gas from the world’s oceans and polar regions. However, gas-hydrate recovery is both a scientific and a technical challenge and much remains to be learned about the geologic, engineering, and economic factors controlling the ultimate energy resource potential of gas hydrate. The amount of natural gas contained in the world’s gas-hydrate accumulations is enormous, but these estimates are speculative and range over three orders of magnitude from about 2,800 to 8,000,000 trillion cubic meters of gas. By comparison, conventional natural gas accumulations (reserves and undiscovered, technically recoverable resources) for the world are estimated at approximately 440 trillion cubic meters. Gas recovery from gas hydrate is hindered because the gas is in a solid form and because gas hydrate commonly occurs in remote Arctic and deep marine environments. Proposed methods of gas recovery from gas hydrate generally deal with disassociating or “melting” in situ gas hydrate by heating the reservoir beyond the temperature of gas-hydrate formation, or decreasing the reservoir pressure below hydrate equilibrium. The pace of energy-related gas hydrate assessment projects has accelerated over the past several years. The Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01 was designed to study the gas-hydrate occurrences off the Indian Peninsula and along the Andaman convergent margin with special emphasis on understanding the geologic and geochemical controls on the occurrence of gas hydrate in these two diverse settings. During Indian National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 01, dedicated gas-hydrate coring, drilling, and downhole logging operations were conducted from 28 April 2006 to 19 August 2006.

Krishna-Godivari Basin↗

Verification of sex from harvested sea otters using DNA testing

We used molecular genetic methods to determine the sex of 138 sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) harvested from 3 regions of Alaska from 1994 to 1997, to assess the accuracy of post‐harvest field‐sexing. We also tested each of a series of factors associated with errors in field‐sexing of sea otters, including male or female bias, age‐class bias, regional bias, and bias associated with hunt characteristics. Blind control results indicated that sex was determined with 100% accuracy using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification using primers that co‐amplify the zinc finger‐Y‐X gene, located on both the mammalian Y‐ and X‐chromosomes, and Testes Determining Factor (TDF), located on the mammalian Y‐chromosome. DNA‐based sexing revealed that 12.3% of the harvested sea otters were incorrectly sexed in the field, with most errors (13 of 17) occurring as males incorrectly reported as females. Thus, female harvest was overestimated. Using logistic regression analysis, we detected no statistical association of incorrect determination of sex in the field with age class, hunt region, or hunt type. The error in field‐sexing appears to be random, at least with respect to the variables evaluated in this study.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

A plan for assessing the occurrence and distribution of methyl tert-butyl ether and other volatile organic compounds in drinking water and ambient ground water in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States

A plan to assess the occurrence and distribution of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water and ambient ground water in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States was designed to meet two primary objectives. This study will provide the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency with information on potential human exposure to MTBE and other VOCs from drinking water. In addition, the study will further the goals of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Water Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) by providing additional information on the occurrence and distribution of VOCs in ambient ground water beneath a large, highly urbanized part of the Nation. The study will proceed in two phases-a drinking-water assessment (phase 1) and an ambient ground-water assessment (phase 2). The drinking-water assessment will involve compilation, review, and analysis of available water- quality and ancillary data for approximately 20 percent of the community water systems in 12 States in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. This effort will summarize the occurrence and distribution of MTBE and other VOCs in drinking water supplied by 2,110 community water systems. The ambient ground-water assessment will involve compilation, review, and analysis of data on MTBE and other VOCs from previous USGS studies in the 12-State area, including regional water-quality assessments conducted for the USGS's NAWQA, plus other available State or local datasets. These data will be related, to the extent allowed by the completeness and quality of the data, to land-use patterns, population density, and other anthropogenic and natural factors using statistical tests. The occurrence and distribution of MTBE and other VOCs in ambient ground water and, to the extent possible, drinking water in relation to such factors, will be evaluated.

Open-File Report↗

Changes between early development (1930–60) and recent (2005–15) groundwater-level altitudes and dissolved-solids and nitrate concentrations In and near Gaines, Terry, and Yoakum Counties, Texas

Llano Estacado Underground Water Conservation District, Sandy Land Underground Water Conservation District, and South Plains Underground Water Conservation District manage groundwater resources in a part of west Texas near the Texas-New Mexico State line. Declining groundwater levels have raised concerns about the amount of available groundwater in the study area and the potential for water-quality changes resulting from dewatering and increased vertical groundwater movement between adjacent water-bearing units. In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Llano Estacado Underground Water Conservation District, Sandy Land Underground Water District, and South Plains Underground Water Conservation District, began a multiphase project to develop a regional conceptual model of the hydrogeologic framework and geochemistry of the Ogallala, Edwards-Trinity, and Dockum aquifers. The Ogallala aquifer is the shallowest aquifer in the study area and is the primary source of water for agriculture and municipal supply in the area. This report describes the results of the first phase of the study, during which groundwater-level-altitude and selected water-quality data from wells in and near Gaines, Terry, and Yoakum Counties were compiled and evaluated for the Ogallala, Edwards-Trinity, and Dockum aquifers. Readily available digital groundwater data for the study area (geologic, well-construction, groundwater-level-altitude, and selected water-quality data) were compiled to assess temporal and spatial changes in groundwater resources from early development (1930–60) to recent (2005–15) periods. Pertinent data were compiled from available sources for the study area and for a 5-mile buffer area around the study area to prevent gridding errors near the boundary. Geologic and well-construction data were used to determine or verify the aquifer in which each well was completed. Depending on the available data, the aquifer assignment (aquifer in which a given well was completed) was determined on the basis of the following criteria, in order of priority: (1) the screened or open interval(s) of the well, (2) the total depth of the well, or (3) the completed aquifer reported for a given well by the data source. Potentiometric-surface maps were created to depict changes in groundwater-level altitudes for the Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity aquifers. In addition to comparing groundwater-level altitudes and water quality from the early development and recent periods, hydrographs of groundwater-level altitudes were created, and changes in water quality for various periods between 1930 and 2015 were evaluated. Variance maps for each groundwater-level-altitude grid were used to evaluate the spatial data coverage and to identify areas with higher uncertainty because of spatially limited data availability for some of the aquifers. For this report, existing dissolved-solids and nitrate concentration data were compiled and assessed for evidence of spatial patterns and changes over time. These data were compiled for samples collected from wells completed in the Ogallala, Edwards-Trinity, or Dockum aquifer during the early development period (1930–60) or the recent period (2005–15); temporal and spatial variations were assessed from depictions of the measured concentration values. Dissolved-solids and nitrate concentrations measured in samples from three wells completed in the Ogallala aquifer (well identifiers 11524, 11824, and 11825) for which long-term monitoring was done for various periods between 1950 and 2015 were also compiled and analyzed. Groundwater-level altitudes of the Ogallala aquifer are generally higher in the northwestern part of the study area and lower in the southeastern part of the study area, varying by as much as 800 feet. Groundwater flow paths for the early development period generally trend from northwest to southeast across the study area. Compared to those for the early development period, local features in the potentiometric surface for the recent period are more pronounced, likely as a result of additional data coverage, increased groundwater withdrawals, and local flow paths that are more variable. For the Edwards-Trinity aquifer potentiometric-surface map of the recent period, a general northwest to southeast flow gradient was also evident, with some subtle differences compared to the early development period. The Edwards-Trinity aquifer water-level-altitude change map between the early development and recent periods indicated similar spatial trends as in the Ogallala aquifer and indicated that groundwater-level altitudes declined over a large amount of the area for which sufficient data were available for reliably mapping changes. During the recent period, median dissolved-solids concentrations of less than 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L) were predominantly measured in the western part of the study area, and median concentrations of more than 1,000 mg/L were predominantly measured in the eastern part of the study area. A general pattern of increasing nitrate concentrations from west to the northeast was evident in the study area. Nitrate concentrations measured in samples collected from 16 wells completed in the Ogallala aquifer for the recent period were equal to or greater than 10 mg/L, the primary drinking water standard for finished drinking water.

Texas↗

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3]. Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals [Box 6.1, 6.4]. Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as saltmarshes and mangroves, are especially threatened where they are sediment starved or constrained on their landward margin [6.4.1]. Degradation of coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has serious implications for the well-being of societies dependent on the coastal ecosystems for goods and services [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. ncreased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries and other resources could impact hundreds of millions of people, and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures (very high confidence). Utilisation of the coast increased dramatically during the 20th century and this trend is virtually certain to continue through the 21st century. Under the SRES scenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions about migration [6.3.1]. Increasing numbers of people and assets at risk at the coast are subject to additional stresses due to land-use and hydrological changes in catchments, including dams that reduce sediment supply to the coast [6.3.2]. Populated deltas (especially Asian megadeltas), low-lying coastal urban areas and atolls are key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability, occurring where the stresses on natural systems coincide with low human adaptive capacity and high exposure [6.4.3]. Regionally, South, South- East and East Asia, Africa and small islands are most vulnerable [6.4.2]. Climate change therefore reinforces the desirability of managing coasts in an integrated manner [6.6.1.3]. Adaptation for the coasts of developing countries will be more challenging than for coasts of developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity (high confidence). While physical exposure can significantly influence vulnerability for both human populations and natural systems, a lack of adaptive capacity is often the most important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Adaptive capacity is largely dependent upon development status. Developing nations may have the political or societal will to protect or relocate people who live in low-lying coastal zones, but without the necessary financial and other resources/capacities, their vulnerability is much greater than that of a developed nation in an identical coastal setting. Vulnerability will also vary between developing countries, while developed countries are not insulated from the adverse consequences of extreme events [6.4.3, 6.5.2]. Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction (high confidence). Adaptation costs for climate change are much lower than damage costs without adaptation for most developed coasts, even considering only property losses and human deaths [6.6.2, 6.6.3]. As post-event impacts on coastal businesses, people, housing, public and private social institutions, natural resources, and the environment generally go unrecognised in disaster cost accounting, the full benefits of adaptation are even larger [6.5.2, 6.6.2]. Without adaptation, the high-end sea-level rise scenarios, combined with other climate changes (e.g., increased storm intensity), are as likely as not to render some islands and lowlying areas unviable by 2100, so effective adaptation is urgently required [6.6.3]. The unavoidability of sea-level rise, even in the longer-term, frequently conflicts with present-day human development patterns and trends (high confidence). Sea-level rise has substantial inertia and will continue beyond 2100 for many centuries. Irreversible breakdown of the West Antarctica and/or Greenland ice sheets, if triggered by rising temperatures, would make this long-term rise significantly larger, ultimately questioning the viability of many coastal settlements across the globe. The issue is reinforced by the increasing human use of the coastal zone. Settlement patterns also have substantial inertia, and this issue presents a challenge for long-term coastal spatial planning. Stabilisation of climate could reduce the risks of ice sheet breakdown, and reduce but Chapter 6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 317 not stop sea-level rise due to thermal expansion [Box 6.6]. Hence, it is now more apparent than it was in the TAR that the most appropriate response to sea-level rise for coastal areas is a combination of adaptation to deal with the inevitable rise, and mitigation to limit the long-term rise to a manageable level [6.6.5, 6.7].

Book chapter↗