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Results for “Environmental Modeling & Assessment”

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At least 1,135 records · Page 63Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Simulated effects of projected 2010 withdrawals on ground-water flow and water levels in the New Jersey coastal plain – A task of the New Jersey Water Supply Plan, 2006 revision

A ground-water flow model previously developed as part of a Regional Aquifer System Analysis (RASA) of the New Jersey Coastal Plain was used to simulate ground-water flow in eight major confined aquifers to help evaluate ground-water resources in support of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection's revision of the New Jersey State Water Supply Plan. This model was calibrated to 1998 steady-state and transient conditions. Withdrawals at wells in operation in 1998 were varied in three scenarios to evaluate their effects on flow directions, water levels, and water budgets in the confined aquifers. The scenarios used to predict changes in pumpage from 1998 to 2010 were based on (1) a continuation of 1990-99 trends in water use, (2) public-supply withdrawals estimated from county population projections, and (3) restricted withdrawals in Water-Supply Critical Areas. Total withdrawals in these three scenarios were approximately 366, 362, and 355 million gallons per day, respectively. The results of these simulations are used by New Jersey water-management officials to help address water-supply concerns for the State. In the revision of the New Jersey State Water Supply Plan, the eight major confined aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain and their outcrop areas are divided into 41 hydrologic budget areas (HBAs). Simulation results were used to assess the effects of changing ground-water withdrawals on water levels and the flow budgets in each budget area. Simulation results for each scenario were compared with 1998 (baseline) simulated water levels and flow budgets. The 41 hydrologic budget areas are in areas of large ground-water withdrawals, water-level declines, and (or) saltwater-intrusion potential. Their boundaries are based on various hydrologic, geohydrologic, and withdrawal conditions, such as aquifer extent, location of the 250-milligram-per-liter isochlor, aquifer outcrop area, and ground-water divides. The budget areas include primarily the onshore, freshwater portions of the aquifers. A budget analysis was done for each of the hydrologic budget areas for each scenario. Ground-water withdrawals, leakage to streams, net leakage to overlying and underlying aquifers, lateral flow to adjacent budget areas, and the flow direction at the 250-milligram-per-liter isochlor were evaluated. Although three different methods were applied to predict future pumping rates, the simulated water levels for scenarios 1 and 2 were generally within 2 feet of each other in most areas in the confined aquifers, but differences of more than 2 feet occurred locally. Differences in values of flow-budget components between scenarios 1 and 2 as a percentage change from 1998 values were generally within 2 percent in most hydrologic budget areas, but values of some budget components in some hydrologic budget areas differed by more than 2 percent. Simulated water levels recovered as much as 4 feet more in northeastern Camden and northwestern Burlington Counties in the Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer, and as much as 3 feet more in the same area in the Upper and Middle Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers when pumpage restrictions were imposed in Critical Area 2 (scenario 3). In the Wenonah-Mount-Laurel aquifer, water levels declined continually in Monmouth County (HBA 8) downdip from the outcrop (in Critical Area 1) from 1988 to 2010 in all three scenarios, although most of the water levels farther downdip from this area in Critical Area 1 are still recovering because of mandated reductions in pumpage in the 1990s. In the Englishtown aquifer system, water levels declined continually in small areas in HBA 13 in central Monmouth County (in Critical Area 1) and in western Monmouth County downdip from the outcrop from 1988 to 2010 in all three scenarios, although most of the water levels farther downdip from this area are still recovering because of the mandated reductions in pumpage. In the Upper Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquif

New Jersey↗
USGS2014

Demographics and run timing of adult Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and short nose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2012

Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during spring 2012 were used to describe the spawning migrations in that year and also were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations in 2011. Separate analyses were conducted for each species and also for each subpopulation of Lost River suckers (LRS). Shortnose suckers (SNS) and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. In 2012, we captured, tagged, and released 749 LRS at four lakeshore spawning areas and recaptured an additional 969 individuals that had been tagged in previous years. Across all four areas, the remote antennas detected 6,578 individual LRS during the spawning season. Spawning activity peaked in April and most individuals were encountered at Cinder Flats and Sucker Springs. In the Williamson River, we captured, tagged, and released 3,376 LRS and 299 SNS, and recaptured 551 LRS and 125 SNS that had been tagged in previous years. Remote PIT tag antennas in the traps at the weir on the Williamson River and remote antenna systems that spanned the river at four different locations on the Williamson and Sprague Rivers detected a total of 19,321 LRS and 6,124 SNS. Most LRS passed upstream between late April and mid-May when water temperatures were increasing and greater than 10 °C. In contrast, most upstream passage for SNS occurred in early and mid-May when water temperatures were increasing and near or greater than 12 °C. Finally, an additional 1,188 LRS and 1,665 SNS were captured in trammel net sampling at pre-spawn staging areas in the northeastern part of the lake. Of these, 291 of the LRS and 653 of the SNS had been PIT-tagged in previous years. For LRS captured at the staging areas that had encounter histories that were informative about their spawning location, over 90 percent of the fish were members of the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers. Capture-recapture analyses for the LRS subpopulation that spawns at the shoreline areas included encounter histories for more than 12,150 individuals, and analyses for the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers included more than 29,500 encounter histories. With a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both subpopulations was high (greater than 0.9) between 1999 and 2010. Notably lower survival occurred for both sexes from the rivers in 2000, for both sexes from the shoreline areas in 2002, and for males from the rivers in 2006. Between 2001 and 2011, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by 53–65 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 36–48 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume that little or no recruitment occurred in 2006 or 2008, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation between 2002 and 2011. Capture-recapture analyses for SNS included encounter histories for more than 17,700 individuals. Most annual survival estimates between 2001 and 2010 were high (greater than 0.8), but SNS experienced more years of low survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was particularly low in 2001, 2004, and 2010. In addition, male survival was somewhat low in 2002. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial between 2001 and 2005. Models indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population in 2006, 2008, and 2009. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable between 2006 and 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006, 2008, and 2009 because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 71 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 69 percent between 2001 and 2011. The worst-case scenario, which assumes no recruitment and seems more likely, suggests an 86 percent decrease for males and an 81 percent decrease for females. Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial declines in the abundance of spawning fish because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the adult spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. In fact, fork length data indicate that all populations are largely comprised of fish that were present in the late 1990s and early 2000s. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, and the situation is especially dire for shortnose suckers. Future investigations should explore the connections between sucker recruitment and survival and various environmental factors, such as water quality and disease. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Oregon↗
USGS2012

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

Arizona;Sonora↗
USGS2021

Historic population estimates for bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Aragua, Venezuela indicate monitoring need

This study reports historic capture-mark-recapture survival and abundance estimates of common bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) based on photo-identification surveys of coastal Venezuela (along the Aragua coast between Turiamo Bay and Puerto Colombia). We used the most recent data available: dolphins identified by unique dorsal fin marks during wet and dry season surveys conducted from 2004 to 2008. Dolphin encounter histories were analyzed in the Closed Capture Robust Design framework, with the top model including random movement, constant survival, and capture-recapture probabilities that varied by secondary periods. Survival of marked adults was estimated at 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97 to 1.00). Population estimates for all adults (marked and unmarked) averaged 31 animals (SD = 13.8), and for all dolphins (all adults and calves), 41 animals (SD = 17.2). Coastal bottlenose dolphins face numerous threats, including ship strikes, oil spills, conflict with recreational and industrial fisheries, other negative human interactions, biotoxins, chemicals, noise, freshwater discharge, and coastal development. Further, small populations are, in general, at increased risk due to reduced resiliency and recovery potential when exposed to such threats and to expected environmental and demographic stochasticity. These historic estimates of abundance and survival are critical for establishing a reference state and indicate a need for ongoing monitoring of the small dolphin population while the Aragua coast is still, as of yet, relatively little impacted by humans. Should coastal development increase (as is the global trend) and/or environmental catastrophes (e.g., harmful algal blooms, hurricanes, and oil spills) occur, these historic estimates will be essential for assessing impacts and guiding management and conservation interventions. Our results show year-round dolphin presence and highlight the Venezuelan coastal–oceanic landscape as an area of both future research and conservation importance.

Aragua↗
USGS2026

Investigating hydrologic alteration under historical and future scenarios in the Mobile River and Perdido River basins using the cubist algorithm

This study investigates the impacts of human activities and climate variability on hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins of Alabama. The research uses a machine learning approach, specifically cubist models, to quantify and predict changes in flow duration curves (FDCs) under both historical (1980–2009) and future climate scenarios. Future climate projections include the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), evaluated for two future periods: 1980–2069 and 1980–2099. The models incorporate a wide range of covariates, including basin geomorphology, aquifer characteristics, land cover, water storage, environmental factors, solar radiation, census data, and water use data. Under the baseline period (1980–2009), most level 12 hydrologic unit codes (HUC12s) in both basins showed alterations, with substantial differences observed between pre- and post-alteration FDCs. The model performance varied, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency between 0.91 and 0.95 for testing and between 0.98 and 0.99 for training during the baseline period. Future projections under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios generally differed significantly from baseline conditions across all flow regimes ( p < 0.05). In contrast, SSP2 4.5 showed comparatively limited statistical significance, while SSP5 8.5 exhibited significant departures from baseline conditions across all flow regimes, reflecting the greater influence of high-emissions climate forcing on projected hydrologic alterations. Overall, the RCP scenarios projected more widespread statistically significant changes than the corresponding SSP scenarios at the same forcing level, particularly when comparing RCP4.5 with SSP2-4.5, while both RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 consistently indicated greater hydrologic alterations than their moderate-emissions counterparts. These findings highlight the importance of considering different flow regimes when assessing the impacts of climate variability on streamflow. This study contributes to the understanding of hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins, providing insights for water resource management and ecological conservation efforts in the region.

Alabama↗
USGS2011

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ), western pine beetle ( Dendroctonus brevicomis ), and pine engraver ( Ips pini) . This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2 million km 2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species’ ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time.

Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nev↗
USGS2020

Capturing spatiotemporal patterns in presence-absence data to inform monitoring and sampling designs for the threatened Dakota skipper (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae) in the Great Plains of the United States

Declines among species of insect pollinators, especially butterflies, has garnered attention from scientists and managers. Often these declines have spurred governments to declare some species as threatened or endangered. We used existing presence–absence data from surveys for the threatened Dakota skipper Hesperia dacotae (Skinner) to build statistical maps of species presence that could be used to inform future monitoring designs. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to estimate the spatial distribution and temporal trend in Dakota skipper probability of presence. Our model included a spatial random effect and fixed effects for the proportion of two grassland habitat types: those on well-drained soils and those on poorly drained soils; as well as the topographic slope. The results from this model were then used to assess sampling strategies with two different monitoring objectives: locating new Dakota skipper colonies or monitoring the proportion of historically (pre-2000) extant colonies. Our modeling results suggested that the distribution of Dakota skippers followed the distribution of remnant grasslands and that probabilities of presence tended to be higher in topographically diverse grasslands with well-drained soils. Our analysis also showed that the probability of presence declined throughout the northern Great Plains range. Our simulations of the different sampling designs suggested that new detections were expected when sampling where Dakota skippers likely occurred historically, but this may lead to a tradeoff with monitoring existing sites. Prior information about the extant sites may help to ameliorate this tradeoff.

Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2023

Drought-vulnerability assessment of public water systems in West Virginia

Water withdrawn from rivers and streams accounts for approximately 80 percent of the public water supply in West Virginia. Localized and (or) seasonal droughts may threaten future water availability in the state, particularly in rural communities located in the headwaters of unregulated watersheds. Monthly water withdrawal data obtained from the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection’s Large Quantity User program’s regulatory database was used to calculate all-time, seasonal, and monthly 75th quantile withdrawal rates for 109 public water system (PWS) intakes withdrawing from surface waters in West Virginia. A drought-vulnerability assessment value was calculated by comparing PWS withdrawal rates to the 1-day, 10-year hydrologically based streamflow statistic (1Q10) for 71 of the 109 PWS in locations with valid streamflow statistics. Withdrawal rates were evaluated against thresholds representing different levels of drought-related impacts from the West Virginia interagency drought plan and ecological-flow literature. The drought-vulnerability assessment found 33 of 71 PWS have 75th quantile withdrawal rates greater than 100 percent of 1Q10 streamflow. Forty-five of 71 PWS have 75th quantile withdrawal rates more than 10 percent of 1Q10 streamflow, suggesting some level of ecological impairment during severe drought. Additionally, a publicly available, near real-time drought-awareness web tool was created to compare the estimated withdrawal rate for 109 PWS to forecast streamflows from the National Water Model to support decision-making for emergency and water managers.

West Virginia↗
USGS2011

Geographic profiling to assess the risk of rare plant poaching in natural areas

We demonstrate the use of an expert-assisted spatial model to examine geographic factors influencing the poaching risk of a rare plant (American ginseng, Panax quinquefolius L.) in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Following principles of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we identified a hierarchy of 11 geographic factors deemed important to poaching risk and requested law enforcement personnel of the National Park Service to rank those factors in a series of pair-wise comparisons. We used those comparisons to determine statistical weightings of each factor and combined them into a spatial model predicting poaching risk. We tested the model using 69 locations of previous poaching incidents recorded by law enforcement personnel. These locations occurred more frequently in areas predicted by the model to have a higher risk of poaching than random locations. The results of our study can be used to evaluate resource protection strategies and to target law enforcement activities.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2017

Evidence of coupled carbon and iron cycling at a hydrocarbon-contaminated site from time lapse magnetic susceptibility

Conventional characterization and monitoring of hydrocarbon (HC) pollution is often expensive and time-consuming. Magnetic susceptibility (MS) has been proposed as an inexpensive, long-term monitoring proxy of the degradation of HC. We acquired repeated down hole MS logging data in boreholes at a HC-contaminated field research site in Bemidji, MN, USA. The MS data were analyzed in conjunction with redox conditions and iron availability within the source zone to better assess whether MS can serve as a proxy for monitoring HC contamination in unconsolidated sediments. The MS response at the site diminished during the sampling period, which was found to coincide with depletion of solid phase iron in the source zone. Previous geochemical observations and modeling at the site suggest that the most likely cause of the decrease in MS is the transformation of magnetite to siderite, coupled with the exhaustion of ferrihydrite. Although the temporal MS response at this site gives valuable field-scale evidence for changing conditions of iron cycling and stability of iron minerals it does not provide a simple proxy for long-term monitoring of biodegradation of hydrocarbons in the smear zone.

Minnesota↗
USGS2017

Comparing measurement response and inverted results of electrical resistivity tomography instruments

In this investigation, we compare the results of electrical resistivity measurements made by six commercially available instruments on the same line of electrodes to determine if there are differences in the measured data or inverted results. These comparisons are important to determine whether measurements made between different instruments are consistent. We also degraded contact resistance on one quarter of the electrodes to study how each instrument responds to different electrical connection with the ground. We find that each instrument produced statistically similar apparent resistivity results, and that any conservative assessment of the final inverted resistivity models would result in a similar interpretation for each. We also note that inversions, as expected, are affected by measurement error weights. Increased measurement errors were most closely associated with degraded contact resistance in this set of experiments. In a separate test we recorded the full measured waveform for a single four-electrode array to show how poor electrode contact and instrument-specific recording settings can lead to systematic measurement errors. We find that it would be acceptable to use more than one instrument during an investigation with the expectation that the results would be comparable assuming contact resistance remained consistent.

Journal of Environmental & Engineering Geophysics↗
USGS2025

Near-surface geophysics: Environmental applications

The field of geophysics encompasses a broad and diverse compilation of methodologies that employs principles of physics to characterize properties of earth materials within the subsurface. While geophysical methods have a long history in resource exploration and studies of Earth’s interior, the subdiscipline of “near-surface geophysics” has evolved in recent decades for examination of the shallow, near-surface environment for a range of purposes ranging from archaeological or forensic investigations to assessment of geologic, hydrologic, biologic, and geochemical properties and processes. “Environmental geophysics” are near-surface geophysical studies and methods that focus on understanding natural systems (e.g., watershed hydrology, groundwater–surface water connections, biophysical processes) as well as research pertaining to anthropogenic impacts and land management, (e.g., contamination and remediation, saltwater intrusion, agricultural practices). This field can be further subdivided into subdisciplines focused on specific topics and applications, such as water resources and hydrology (hydrogeophysics) or biologic and microbial processes (biogeophysics). Studies in environmental geophysics span a range of scales, from pore-scale laboratory tests to watershed-scale or regional field experiments. Methods vary by the nature of physics employed, the specific measurement acquired, and how that data is ultimately processed and analyzed to produce interpretable results. There exists further diversity in the acquisition logistics, geometry, and timing of data collection. Geophysical data can be collected in boreholes (one-dimensional, 1-D, vertical profiles), along survey lines (two-dimensional, 2-D, cross-sections), or in dense sensor arrays or gridded profiles (three-dimensional, 3-D, models). Regarding the temporal aspect, studies can conduct one-time geophysical surveys to obtain detailed imaging of subsurface structure or use timelapse and continuous monitoring to investigate variations in subsurface properties over time. The cumulation of all possible permutations of these factors (method, acquisition geometry, survey design, and target application) results in an immense diversity among environmental geophysical studies. Nevertheless, this field remains unified in the pursuit of understanding natural and human-impacted near-surface environments through geophysical investigations. Here we highlight some key references within environmental geophysics. Resources on geophysical theory, acquisition logistics, processing and inversion workflows, and example case studies are categorized into the most common geophysical classes within Geophysical Methods. Lastly, example references for the dominant types of applications in environmental geophysical studies are catalogued in Environmental Applications.

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska

It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km 2 ), are influencing and will influence state‐wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), climate, logging and fire regimes on the historical and future C balance of upland ecosystems for the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. At the end of the historical period (1950–2009) of our analysis, we estimate that upland ecosystems of Alaska store ~50 Pg C (with ~90% of the C in soils), and gained 3.26 Tg C/yr. Three of the LCCs had gains in total ecosystem C storage, while the Northwest Boreal LCC lost C (−6.01 Tg C/yr) because of increases in fire activity. Carbon exports from logging affected only the North Pacific LCC and represented less than 1% of the state's net primary production (NPP). The analysis for the future time period (2010–2099) consisted of six simulations driven by climate outputs from two climate models for three emission scenarios. Across the climate scenarios, total ecosystem C storage increased between 19.5 and 66.3 Tg C/yr, which represents 3.4% to 11.7% increase in Alaska upland's storage. We conducted additional simulations to attribute these responses to environmental changes. This analysis showed that atmospheric CO 2 fertilization was the main driver of ecosystem C balance. By comparing future simulations with constant and with increasing atmospheric CO 2 , we estimated that the sensitivity of NPP was 4.8% per 100 ppmv, but NPP becomes less sensitive to CO 2 increase throughout the 21st century. Overall, our analyses suggest that the decreasing CO 2 sensitivity of NPP and the increasing sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration to air temperature, in addition to the increase in C loss from wildfires weakens the C sink from upland ecosystems of Alaska and will ultimately lead to a source of CO 2 to the atmosphere beyond 2100. Therefore, we conclude that the increasing regional C sink we estimate for the 21st century will most likely be transitional.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Analyzing the water budget and hydrological characteristics and responses to land use in a monsoonal climate river basin in South China

Hydrological models have been increasingly used by hydrologists and water resource managers to understand natural processes and human activities that affect watersheds. In this study, we use the physically based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to investigate the hydrological processes in the East River Basin in South China, a coastal area dominated by monsoonal climate. The SWAT model was calibrated using 8-year (1973–1980) record of the daily streamflow at the basin outlet (Boluo station), and then validated using data collected during the subsequent 8 years (1981–1988). Statistical evaluation shows that SWAT can consistently simulate the streamflow of the East River with monthly Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.93 for calibration and 0.90 for validation at the Boluo station. We analyzed the model simulations with calibrated parameters, presented the spatiotemporal distribution of the key hydrological components, and quantified their responses to different land uses. Watershed managers can use the results of this study to understand hydrological features and evaluate water resources of the East River in terms of sustainable development and effective management.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2009

Estimation of potential loss of two pesticides in runoff in Fillmore County, Minnesota using a field-scale process-based model and a geographic information system

In assessing the occurrence, behavior, and effects of agricultural chemicals in surface water, the scales of study (i.e., watershed, county, state, and regional areas) are usually much larger than the scale of agricultural fields, where much of the understanding of processes has been developed. Field-scale areas are characterized by relatively homogeneous conditions. The combination of process-based simulation models and geographic information system technology can be used to help extend our understanding of field processes to water-quality concerns at larger scales. To demonstrate this, the model "Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems" was used to estimate the potential loss of two pesticides (atrazine and permethrin) in runoff to surface water in Fillmore County in southeastern Minnesota. The county was divided into field-scale areas on the basis of a 100 m by 100 m grid, and the influences of soil type and surface topography on the potential losses of the two pesticides in runoff was evaluated for each individual grid cell. The results could be used for guidance for agricultural management and regulatory decisions, for planning environmental monitoring programs, and as an educational tool for the public.

Minnesota↗
USGS2004

The effect of soil composition and hydration on the bioavailability and toxicity of cadmium to hibernating juvenile American toads ( Bufo americanus )

The soil ecotoxicology literature has focused primarily on a few major taxa, to the neglect of other fossorial organisms such as amphibians. We selected cadmium (Cd) and the American toad ( Bufo americanus ) as a model contaminant and biological species to assess the impact of soil contamination on amphibian hibernation survival and post-hibernation condition. Soil sand composition (50, 70, 90%) and hydration (100, 150% water holding capacity (WHC)) were manipulated in addition to Cd concentration (0, 56, 165, 483 μg/g) to determine whether these soil properties affect toxicity. Soil Cd concentration significantly reduced survival and locomotor performance, and was correlated negatively with percent mass loss and positively with whole body Cd concentration. Higher sand content resulted in less mass loss and greater Cd uptake. Toads that were hibernated in 50% sand hydrated to 100% WHC had higher survival, less mass loss, and better sprint performance than those hibernated in 50% sand, 150% WHC. This study demonstrates that concentrations of Cd found in soil at highly contaminated sites can be bioaccumulated by hibernating amphibians and may reduce fitness. Differences in microhabitat use may cause species to vary in their exposure and susceptibility to soil contamination. The toxicity of Cd to amphibians could be greater in natural systems where there are multiple stressors and fluctuations in environmental variables.

Environmental Pollution↗
USGS2010

Recruitment in a Colorado population of big brown bats: Breeding probabilities, litter size, and first-year survival

We used markrecapture estimation techniques and radiography to test hypotheses about 3 important aspects of recruitment in big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado: adult breeding probabilities, litter size, and 1st-year survival of young. We marked 2,968 females with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags at multiple sites during 2001-2005 and based our assessments on direct recaptures (breeding probabilities) and passive detection with automated PIT tag readers (1st-year survival). We interpreted our data in relation to hypotheses regarding demographic influences of bat age, roost, and effects of years with unusual environmental conditions: extreme drought (2002) and arrival of a West Nile virus epizootic (2003). Conditional breeding probabilities at 6 roosts sampled in 2002-2005 were estimated as 0.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.530.73) in 1-year-old females, but were consistently high (95% CI = 0.940.96) and did not vary by roost, year, or prior year breeding status in older adults. Mean litter size was 1.11 (95% CI = 1.051.17), based on examination of 112 pregnant females by radiography. Litter size was not higher in older or larger females and was similar to results of other studies in western North America despite wide variation in latitude. First-year survival was estimated as 0.67 (95% CI = 0.610.73) for weaned females at 5 maternity roosts over 5 consecutive years, was lower than adult survival (0.79; 95% CI = 0.770.81), and varied by roost. Based on model selection criteria, strong evidence exists for complex roost and year effects on 1st-year survival. First-year survival was lowest in bats born during the drought year. Juvenile females that did not return to roosts as 1-year-olds had lower body condition indices in late summer of their natal year than those known to survive. ?? 2009 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2025

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting Rhode Island’s economy

Introduction High-resolution elevation data are critical to applications of landscape modeling and planning, both of which have a significant effect on Rhode Island’s economy. In these and other enterprises, program managers, while aiming to strike a balance between accuracy and cost, strive to obtain the best available elevation data to help them address a range of issues. Programs focused on climate change, environmental management, transportation design and asset management, aviation navigation and safety, riverine ecosystem management, wildlife habitat characterization and management, shellfish aquaculture, and the management and mapping of forests, parks and recreation areas, soils, wetlands, and impervious surfaces are also among the critical applications that meet the State’s management needs and depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with Federal, State, Tribal, U.S. territorial, and local agencies to acquire consistent lidar coverage at quality level 2 or better to meet the many needs of the Nation and Rhode Island. The status of available and in-progress 3DEP baseline lidar data in Rhode Island is shown in figure 1. 3DEP baseline lidar data include quality level 2 or better, 1-meter or better digital elevation models, and lidar point clouds, and must meet the Lidar Base Specification version 1.2 ( https://www.usgs.gov/3dep/lidarspec ) or newer requirements. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment identified user requirements and conservatively estimated that availability of lidar data would result in at least $178,560 in new benefits annually to the State. The top 10 Rhode Island business uses for 3D elevation data, which are based on the estimated annual conservative benefits of 3DEP, are shown in table 2.

Rhode Island↗