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Critical analysis of world uranium resources

The U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA) joined with the U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to analyze the world uranium supply and demand balance. To evaluate short-term primary supply (0–15 years), the analysis focused on Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR), which are resources projected with a high degree of geologic assurance and considered to be economically feasible to mine. Such resources include uranium resources from mines currently in production as well as resources that are in the stages of feasibility or of being permitted. Sources of secondary supply for uranium, such as stockpiles and reprocessed fuel, were also examined. To evaluate long-term primary supply, estimates of uranium from unconventional and from undiscovered resources were analyzed. At 2010 rates of consumption, uranium resources identified in operating or developing mines would fuel the world nuclear fleet for about 30 years. However, projections currently predict an increase in uranium requirements tied to expansion of nuclear energy worldwide. Under a low-demand scenario, requirements through the period ending in 2035 are about 2.1 million tU. In the low demand case, uranium identified in existing and developing mines is adequate to supply requirements. However, whether or not these identified resources will be developed rapidly enough to provide an uninterrupted fuel supply to expanded nuclear facilities could not be determined. On the basis of a scenario of high demand through 2035, 2.6 million tU is required and identified resources in operating or developing mines is inadequate. Beyond 2035, when requirements could exceed resources in these developing properties, other sources will need to be developed from less well-assured resources, deposits not yet at the prefeasibility stage, resources that are currently subeconomic, secondary sources, undiscovered conventional resources, and unconventional uranium supplies. This report’s analysis of 141 mines that are operating or are being actively developed identifies 2.7 million tU of in-situ uranium resources worldwide, approximately 2.1 million tU recoverable after mining and milling losses were deducted. Sixty-four operating mines report a total of 1.4 million tU of in-situ RAR (about 1 million tU recoverable). Seventy-seven developing mines/production centers report 1.3 million tU in-situ Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) (about 1.1 million tU recoverable), which have a reasonable chance of producing uranium within 5 years. Most of the production is projected to come from conventional underground or open pit mines as opposed to in-situ leach mines. Production capacity in operating mines is about 76,000 tU/yr, and in developing mines is estimated at greater than 52,000 tU/yr. Production capacity in operating mines should be considered a maximum as mines seldom produce up to licensed capacity due to operational difficulties. In 2010, worldwide mines operated at 70 percent of licensed capacity, and production has never exceeded 89 percent of capacity. The capacity in developing mines is not always reported. In this study 35 percent of developing mines did not report a target licensed capacity, so estimates of future capacity may be too low. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimate an additional 1.4 million tU economically recoverable resources, beyond that identified in operating or developing mines identified in this report. As well, 0.5 million tU in subeconomic resources, and 2.3 million tU in the geologically less certain inferred category are identified worldwide. These agencies estimate 2.2 million tU in secondary sources such as government and commercial stockpiles and re-enriched uranium tails. They also estimate that unconventional uranium supplies (uraniferous phosphate and black shale deposits) may contain up to 7.6 million tU. Although unconventional resources are currently subeconomic, the improvement of extraction techniques or the production of coproducts may make extraction of uranium from these types of deposits profitable. A large undiscovered resource base is reported by these agencies, however this class of resource should be considered speculative and will require intensive exploration programs to adequately define them as mineable. These resources may all contribute to uranium supply that would fuel the world nuclear fleet well beyond that calculated in this report. Production of resources in both operating and developing uranium mines is subject to uncertainties caused by technical, legal, regulatory, and financial challenges that combined to create long timelines between deposit discovery and mine production. This analysis indicates that mine development is proceeding too slowly to fully meet requirements for an expanded nuclear power reactor fleet in the near future (to 2035), and unless adequate secondary or unconventional resources can be identified, imbalances in supply and demand may occur.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

GLORIA II sonograph mosaic of the western U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone

In 1983 the United States declared sovereign rights and jurisdiction over living and nonliving resources in an area extending 200 nautical miles (370 km) seaward from its shores. In response to the establishment of this Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has implemented a program, called EEZ‐Scan, to systematically map the EEZ, using the Geological Long‐ Range Inclined ASDIC (GLORIA) II longrange side scan sonar system developed by the Institute of Oceanographic Sciences (IOS) of Great Britain [Somers et al, 1978]. The first part of the EEZ‐Scan field program was completed in the summer of 1984, when USGS and IOS scientists surveyed the EEZ off the western conterminous United States aboard the British research vessel Farnella (Figure 1). The west coast survey, requiring 96 days of ship time and four separate legs, has resulted in virtually total sonograph coverage of the sea floor from the continental shelf break to the 200‐nautical mile limit between the Mexican and Canadian borders, an area of about 850,000 km 2 . Other data collected on the cruises included two‐channel digital seismic reflection and 3.5‐kHz highresolution and 10‐kHz bathymetric profiles, as well as towed magnetometer data along approximately 20,000 km of trackline spaced nominally at 30‐km intervals.

Western U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone↗

Hydrothermally derived petroleum: examples from Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California, and Escanaba Trough, northeast Pacific Ocean

In the Guaymas Basin, a spreading axis in the Gulf of California, petroleum having a wide range of compositions forms by hydrothermal alteration of organic matter in Quaternary sediment composed mainly of marine diatomaceous ooze and muddy turbidites. In Escanaba Trough, at the southern end of the Gorda Ridge spreading axis offshore northern California, petroleum is formed by hydrothermal processes acting on mainly terrigenous organic material in Quaternary turbiditic river-derived sediment. Comparisons of the distributions of hydrocarbons - n-alkanes, isoprenoids, terpanes, steranes, and aromatics - show that chemical differences among four petroleum samples are such that two samples from Guaymas Basin can be distinguished from two samples from Escanaba Trough. Distinguishing characteristics resulting from differences in sources include n-alkane distributions and certain sterane ratios; distinguishing characteristics resulting from differences in thermal histories of the organic matter include hopane and sterane epimer ratios and various distributions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. These oils differ from conventionally derived petroleum in that they are admixtures of products generated over a wide range of thermal regimes, and their generation, expulsion, and migration occurred simultaneously over an instantaneous geological time period. The potential economic significance of hydrothermal derived petroleum is uncertain, but the fact that petroleum can form at active oceanic spreading axes adds a new facet to understanding the processes of petroleum generation, expulsion, and migration.

Escanaba Trough and Guaymas Basin in the system of↗

Navajo coal and air quality in Shiprock, New Mexico

Among the Navajo people, high levels of respiratory disease, such as asthma, exist in a population with low rates of cigarette smoking. Air quality outdoors and indoors affects respiratory health. Many Navajo Nation residents burn locally mined coal in their homes for heat, as coal is the most economical energy source. The U.S. Geological Survey and Dine College, in cooperation with the Navajo Division of Health, are conducting a study in the Shiprock, New Mexico, area to determine if indoor use of this coal might be contributing to some of the respiratory health problems experienced by the residents. Researchers in this study will (1) examine respiratory health data, (2) identify stove type and use, (3) analyze samples of coal that are used locally, and (4) measure and characterize air quality inside selected homes. This Fact Sheet summarizes the interim results of the study in both English and Navajo.

Fact Sheet↗

Navajo coal and air quality in Shiprock, New Mexico

Among the Navajo people, high levels of respiratory disease, such as asthma, exist in a population with low rates of cigarette smoking. Air quality outdoors and indoors affects respiratory health. Many Navajo Nation residents burn locally mined coal in their homes for heat, as coal is the most economical energy source. The U.S. Geological Survey and Dine College, in cooperation with the Navajo Division of Health, are conducting a study in the Shiprock, New Mexico, area to determine if indoor use of this coal might be contributing to some of the respiratory health problems experienced by the residents. Researchers in this study will (1) examine respiratory health data, (2) identify stove type and use, (3) analyze samples of coal that are used locally, and (4) measure and characterize air quality inside selected homes. This Fact Sheet summarizes the interim results of the study in both English and Navajo. This Fact Sheet is available in three versions: * English [800-KB PDF file ] * Navajo [computer must have Navajo language fonts installed - 304-KB PDF file] * Image of the Navajo language version [19.8-MB PDF file]

Fact Sheet↗

Decision-making for managing harmful algal blooms

Cyanobacteria are a global water-quality concern because these organisms can develop into harmful blooms that affect ecologic, economic, and public health. U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked with the New York State Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to develop a structured decision-making template for managing cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms. This approach can help natural resource managers make decisions to manage water bodies threatened by harmful algal blooms.

New York↗

Depth-to-basement, sediment-thickness, and bathymetry data for the deep-sea basins offshore of Washington, Oregon, and California

Contours and derivative raster files of depth-to-basement, sediment-thickness, and bathymetry data for the area offshore of Washington, Oregon, and California are provided here as GIS-ready shapefiles and GeoTIFF files. The data were used to generate paper maps in 1992 and 1993 from 1984 surveys of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone by the U.S. Geological Survey for depth to basement and sediment thickness, and from older data for the bathymetry.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Gulf of Alaska and Lower Cook Inlet summary report 2, June 1981: A revision of Outer Continental Shelf oil and gas activities in the Gulf of Alaska (including Lower Cook Inlet) and their onshore impacts: A summary report, September 1980

The search for oil and gas on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) in the Gulf of Alaska subregion of the Alaska leasing Region began in 1967, when geophysical surveys of the area were initiated. Three lease sales have been held in the subregion. Lease Sale 39, for the northern Gulf of Alaska, was held on April 13, 1976, and resulted in the leasing of 76 tracts. Lease Sale CI, for Lower Cook Inlet, was held on October 27, 1977, and resulted in the leasing of 87 tracts. Lease Sale 55, held on October 21, 1980, resulted in the leasing of 35 tracts in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Exploratory drilling on the tracts leased in Sale 39 began in September 1976, and exploratory drilling on tracts leased in Sale CI began in July 1978. Drilling stopped on Lease Sale 39 tracts in July 1978 and on CI tracts in June 1980. No additional applications for permit to drill have been submitted for either area. Exploratory drilling is expected to begin on tracts leased in Sale 55 in the spring or summer of 1982. Commercial amounts of hydrocarbons have not been found in any of the wells drilled in either the Sale 39 or Sale CI areas. As of February 1981, 75 of the 76 leases issued in the northern Gulf of Alaska have been relinquished, and 18 of the 87 CI leases have been relinquished. The next lease sale in the Gulf of Alaska, Sale RS-1 (a reoffering sale), is scheduled for late June 1981. Lease Sale 60 (Lower Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait) is scheduled for September 1981. The most recent estimate by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) of risked, economically recoverable resources for the one tract currently under lease in the northern Gulf of Alaska is that they are negligible. For the 35 tracts currently under lease (plus two tracts offered but not leased) in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska, the USGS has estimated risked, economically recoverable resource estimates of 12.6 million barrels of oil and 45.4 billion cubic feet of gas. Onshore impacts from OCS exploration in the Gulf of Alaska have been minimal. Two communities--Yakutat and Seward--served as support bases for past northern Gulf of Alaska exploration efforts. Kenai and Homer provided support for the exploratory drilling in Lower Cook Inlet. Yakutat will serve as the support base for Sale 55 exploration activities.

Alaska↗

Hydrogeologic data from test drilling near Verna, Florida, 1978

Four test wells were drilled in the vicinity of the city of Sarasota well field near Verna, Fla., to provide hydrologic and geologic information. An expedient and economical method of air lifting water samples from isolated water-producing zones while drilling was utilized. Lithologic logs of drill cuttings and geophysical logs, including point resistance and spontaneous potential electric logs, gamma-ray logs, and caliper logs, were made. Chemical quality of water was determined for principal producing zones at each well. Dissolved solids from composite water samples ranged from 313 milligrams per liter in test well 0-1 north of the well field to 728 milligrams per liter in test well 0-3 within the well field. Each test well was pumped to determine maximum discharge, water-level drawdown, and recovery time. A leaking pump column on test well 0-1 prevented accurate measurement of drawdown on the well. Test well 0-2, located east of the well field, had a pumping rate of 376 gallons per minute and 13.11 feet of drawdown after 3 hours and 50 minutes; test well 0-3 had a maximum yield of 320 gallons per minute, a drawdown of 31.91 feet after 2 hours and 35 minutes of pumping, had a recovery time of 20 minutes; and test well 0-4, south of the well field, had a pumping rate of 200 gallons per minute with 63.34 feet of drawdown after 2 hours and 35 minutes. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Geological Survey research 1965, Chapter C

This collection of 44 short papers is the second published chapter of Geological Survey Research 1965. The papers report on scientific and economic results of current work by members of the Conservation, Geologic, and Water Resources Divisions of the U.S. Geological Survey.

Professional Paper↗

Geological Survey research 1966, Chapter B

This collection of 43 short papers is the first published chapter of 'Geological Survey Research 1966.' The papers report on scientific and economic results of current work by members of the Conservation, Geologic, Topographic, and Water Resources Divisions of the U.S. Geological Survey. Chapter A, to be published later in the year, will present a summary of significant results of work done during fiscal year 1966, together with lists of investigations in progress, reports published, cooperating agencies, and Geological Survey offices. 'Geological Survey Research 1966' is the seventh volume of the annual series Geological Survey Research. The six volumes already published are listed below, with their series designations. Geological Survey Research 1960-Prof. Paper 400 Geological Survey Research 1961-Prof. Paper 424 Geological Survey Research 1962-Prof. Paper 450 Geological Survey Research 1963-Prof. Paper 475 Geological Survey Research 1964-Prof. Paper 501 Geological Survey Research 1965-Prof. Paper 525

Professional Paper↗

Geological Survey Research 1966, Chapter D

This collection of 44 short papers is the third published chapter of "Geological Survey Research 1966." The papers report on scientific and .economic results of current work by members of the Conservation, Geologic, and Water Resources Divisions of the U.S. Geological Survey.

Professional Paper↗

Geological Survey research 1969, Chapter B

This collection of 40 short papers is the first published chapter of "Geological Survey Research 1969." The papers report on scientific and economic results of current work by members of the Conservation, Geologic, and Water Resources Divisions of the U.S. Geological Survey. Chapter A, to be published later in the year, will present a summary of significant results of work done during fiscal year 1969, together with lists of investigations in progress, reports published, cooperating agencies, and Geological Survey offices.

Professional Paper↗

Geological Survey research 1970, Chapter C

This collection of 42 short papers is the second published chapter of "Geological Survey Research 1970." The papers report on scientific and economic results of current work by 1nembers of the Conservation, Geologic, Topographic, and Water Resources Divisions of the U.S. Geological Survey. Chapter A, to be published later in the year, will present a summary of significant results of work done in fiscal year 1970, together with lists of investigations in progress, reports published, cooperating agencies, and Geological Survey offices. "Geological Survey Research 1970" is the eleventh volume of the annual series Geological Survey Research. The ten volumes already published are listed below, with their series designations.

Professional Paper↗

Geological Survey research 1972, Chapter C

This collection of 37 short papers is the second published chapter of "Geological Survey Research 1972." The papers report on scientific and economic results of current work by members of the Conservation, Geologic, and Water Resources Divisions of the U.S. Geological Survey. Chapter A, to be published later in the year, will present a summary of significant results of work done ~n fiscal year 1972, together with lists of investigations in progress, cooperating agencies, and Geological Survey offices. "Geological Survey Research 1972" is the thirteenth volume of the annual series Geological Survey Research. The twelve volumes already published are listed below, with their series designations.

Professional Paper↗

Uncertainty in CO2 storage cost and resource estimates

Carbon capture from stationary sources and geological storage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is an important option to include in strategies for the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the potential costs of commercial-scale CO 2 storage are not well constrained, stemming from the inherent uncertainty in current geologic storage resource estimates coupled with a lack of detailed estimates of the infrastructure needed to access those resources. The storage resource estimates are highly dependent on storage efficiency values, which are calculated based on ranges of geological and physical parameters. If dynamic factors (such as variability of storage efficiency and injection rates), reservoir pressure limitations, CO 2 migration boundaries, consideration of closed or semi-closed saline reservoir systems, and other possible constraints on recent estimates of the technically accessible CO 2 storage resource (TASR) in the United States are accounted for, it is possible that only a fraction of the estimated TASR could actually be available without incurring significant additional costs. Although high-level assessments of the TASR typically assume that any issues with reservoir pressure buildup as a result of CO 2 injection will be mitigated by reservoir pressure management, most estimates of the costs of CO 2 storage do not include the costs of pressure management. Production of brines could be essential to increasing the dynamic storage capacity of reservoirs that will be targeted for CO 2 storage to approach volumetric storage capacity levels (IEAGHG, 2014), but including the costs of this critical method of reservoir pressure management could increase current estimates of the costs of CO 2 storage (e.g., Dahowski and others, 2011; NETL, 2014) by two times, or more (Harto and Veil, 2011). To the extent that uncertainty in the availability and cost of CO 2 storage contributes to uncertainty in the costs of the entire process of carbon capture and storage, it could be a factor in delaying investment into upstream carbon-capture projects (Laughton and others, 2008). It may be useful to have basin-wide (or greater) estimates of geologic storage capacity broken down into economic feasibility classes according to the total costs of CO 2 storage, including the expected costs of pressure management.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Progr↗

The geology of Canadian potash: A critical mineral for feeding the world

Potash, potassium-bearing water-soluble salt, is the primary global economic source of potassium. Potash is recognized as a critical mineral in Canada as it is the largest source of potassium used in fertilizers. It is essential for global agricultural productivity and food security. Canada is the world’s largest potash exporter with vast deposits in the widely mined Prairie Evaporite of Saskatchewan, which formed in the epicontinental Elk Point Basin during the Middle Devonian. Potash is also found in the Windsor Group of Atlantic Canada where it formed in a series of tectonically active basins during the Mississippian that have undergone substantial post-depositional subsurface alteration and deformation. Potash deposits were mined in New Brunswick up until 2016. Both deposits are salt giants, recording times in the geologic record of extensive and long-lasting evaporite genesis under arid conditions in restricted seas. This paper reviews the geological and economic significance of Canadian potash, including (1) the genesis of each deposit, (2) diagenetic, erosional, and tectonic modification, and (3) exploration and mining in each basin. Underdeveloped regions, possible undiscovered resources, environmental considerations, and the importance of sustainable practices in light of climate change and socioeconomic risks are also addressed.

Facets↗

Gas in the Uinta Basin, Utah - Resources in continuous accumulations

Continuous-type gas plays can be envisioned as large areas within which the reservoir rock is everywhere charged with gas. As part of its 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas resources, the U.S. Geological Survey identified four continuous-type gas plays in the Uinta Basin. These occur in sandstone reservoirs of the lower Tertiary Wasatch Formation (two plays) and the underlying Upper Cretaceous Mesaverde Group (two plays). Only the play representing the eastern part of the Wasatch Formation continuous accumulation (Natural Buttes area) has been the target of appreciable drilling activity to date. The volume of undiscovered gas estimated to be recoverable from these four plays using existing technology and development practices ranges between 3.7 trillion cubic feet of gas (TCFG) (95th fractile) and 11.9 TCFG (5th fractile), and averages 7.0 TCFG. However, these are geologically based resource estimates, made without direct reference to economic viability. Economic analysis indicates that only a fraction of this assessed resource could be economically found and produced at prices less than $2.00 per thousand cubic feet of gas (MCFG), based on costs that prevailed at the beginning of 1993. Production characteristics of continuous-type gas plays vary significantly from well to well. Difficulty in identifying locations with poor production characteristics in advance of drilling contributes to the unfavorable economics of some plays. The need exists for improvements in technology and geologic understanding that increase the chances of selectively drilling the more productive locations within a continuous-type play.

Mountain Geologist↗