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At least 1,135 records · Page 63Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Plio-Pleistocene climatic transition and the lifting of the Teton Range, Wyoming

Fine-grained lacustrine, riverine and ash-fall sediments of the Shooting Iron Formation, whose late Pliocene age is established by Blancan gastropods and vertebrates, yield a pollen flora that is essentially similar in composition to the modern pollen rain in the Jackson Hole area. The Pliocene assemblage suggests a climate like that of the Jackson valley and foothills today. These spectra also resemble a Pliocene pollen flora from Yellowstone Park dated at ??? 2.02??Ma. However, the underlying Miocene Teewinot sediments differ by containing pollen of four exotic deciduous hardwoods (Tertiary relicts) that suggest a summer-moist climate, unlike that of today. The Shooting Iron sediments lie with an angular unconformity on and above the Miocene lake sediments of the Teewinot Formation. Both of these deposits probably preceded the main uplift of the Teton Range based on the absence of Precambrian clasts in the Tertiary valley deposits. Because the Pliocene floras were modern in aspect, a Plio-Pleistocene transition would be floristically imperceptible here. The sequence denotes a protracted period of relative stability of climate during Teewinot time, and a shift in vegetational state (summer-wet trees drop out) sometime between the latest Miocene and latest Pliocene. The Pliocene spectra suggest a dry, cooler climate toward the end of Shooting Iron time. ?? 2006 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2018

Enhancement of a parsimonious water balance model to simulate surface hydrology in a glacierized watershed

The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant ( p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2023

Impacts of spontaneous waterfall development on bedrock river longitudinal profile morphology

River profiles are shaped by climatic and tectonic history, lithology, and internal feedbacks between flow hydraulics, sediment transport and erosion. In steep channels, waterfalls may self-form without changes in external forcing (i.e., autogenic formation) and erode at rates faster or slower than an equivalent channel without waterfalls. We use a 1-D numerical model to investigate how self-formed waterfalls alter the morphology of bedrock river longitudinal profiles. We modify the standard stream power model to include a slope threshold above which waterfalls spontaneously form and a rate constant allowing waterfalls to erode faster or slower than other fluvial processes. Using this model, we explore how waterfall formation alters both steady state and transient longitudinal profile forms. Our model predicts that fast waterfalls create km-scale reaches in a dynamic equilibrium with channel slope held approximately constant at the threshold slope for waterfall formation, while slow waterfalls can create local channel slope maxima at the location of slow waterfall development. Furthermore, slow waterfall profiles integrate past base level histories, leading to multiple possible profile forms, even at steady-state. Consistency between our model predictions and field observations of waterfall-rich rivers in the Kings and Kaweah drainages in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, supports the hypothesis that waterfall formation can modulate river profiles in nature. Our findings may help identify how bedrock channels are influenced by waterfall erosion and aid in distinguishing between signatures of external and internal perturbations, thereby strengthening our ability to interpret past climate and tectonic changes from river longitudinal profiles.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface↗

USGS2023

River geomorphology affects biogeochemical responses to hydrologic events in a large river ecosystem

Shifts in the frequency and intensity of high discharge events due to climate change may have important consequences for the hydrology and biogeochemistry of rivers. However, our understanding of event-scale biogeochemical dynamics in large rivers lags that of small streams. To fill this gap, we used high-frequency sensor data collected during four consecutive summers from a main channel and backwater site of the Upper Mississippi River. We identified high discharge events and calculated event concentration-discharge responses for both physical-chemical (nitrate, turbidity, and fluorescent dissolved organic matter) and biological (chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria) constituents using metrics of hysteresis and slope. We found a range of responses across events, particularly for nitrate. Although fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) and turbidity exhibited more consistent responses across events, contrasting hysteresis metrics indicated that FDOM was flushed to the river from more distant sources than turbidity. Biological responses (chlorophyll a and cyanobacteria) differed more between sites than physical and chemical constituents. Lastly, we found that the event characteristics best explaining concentration responses differed between sites, with event magnitude more frequently related to responses in the main channel, and antecedent wetness conditions associated with response variation in the backwater. Our results indicate that event responses in large rivers are distinct across the diverse habitats and biogeochemical components of a large floodplain river, which has implications for local and downstream ecosystems as the climate shifts.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2021

Shrub influence on soil carbon and nitrogen in a semi-arid grassland is mediated by precipitation and largely insensitive to livestock grazing

Dryland (arid and semi-arid) ecosystems globally provide more than half of livestock production and store roughly one-third of soil organic carbon (SOC). Biogeochemical pools are changing due to shrub encroachment, livestock grazing, and climate change. We assessed how vegetation microsite, grazing, and precipitation interacted to affect SOC and total nitrogen (TN) at a site with long-term grazing manipulations and well-described patterns of shrub encroachment across elevation and mean annual precipitation (MAP) gradients. We analyzed SOC and TN in the context of vegetation cover at ungrazed locations within livestock exclosures, high-intensity grazing locations near water sources, and moderate-intensity grazing locations away from water. SOC was enhanced by MAP ( p < 0.0001), but grazing intensity had little effect regardless of MAP ( p = 0.12). Shrubs enhanced SOC (300–1279 g C m −2 ) and TN (27–122 g N m −2 ), except at high MAP where the contribution or stabilization of shrub inputs relative to grassland inputs was likely diminished. Cover of perennial herbaceous plants and litter were significant predictors of SOC ( r 2 = 0.63 and 0.34, respectively) and TN ( r 2 = 0.64 and 0.30, respectively). Our results suggest that continued shrub encroachment in drylands can increase SOC storage when grass production remains high, although this response may saturate with higher MAP. In contrast, grazing – at least at the intensities of our sites – has a lesser effect. These effects underscore the need to understand how future climate and grazing may interact to influence dryland biogeochemical cycling.

Arid Land Research and Management↗

USGS2020

Stand density, drought, and herbivory constrain ponderosa pine regeneration pulse

Trees in dry forests often regenerate in episodic pulses when wet periods coincide with ample seed production. Factors leading to success or failure of regeneration pulses are poorly understood. We investigated the impacts of stand thinning on survival and growth of the 2013 cohort of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex P. Lawson & C. Lawson) seedlings in northern Arizona, United States. We measured seedling survival and growth over the first five growing seasons after germination in six stand basal areas (BAs; 0, 7, 14, 23, 34, and 66 (unthinned) m 2 ·ha −1 ) produced by long-term experimental thinnings. Five-year survival averaged 2.5% and varied among BAs. Mean survival duration was longer in intermediate BAs (11 to 16 months) than in clearings and high BAs (5 months). The BAs of 7, 14, and 23 m 2 ·ha −1 had >2600 5-year-old seedlings·ha −1 . In contrast, regeneration was lower in the clearing (666 seedlings·ha −1 ) and failed completely in the 34 m 2 ·ha −1 and unthinned treatments. Seedling survival was highest during wet years and lowest during drought years. Many surviving seedlings had no net height growth between years 4 and 5 because of stem browsing. Results indicate that natural regeneration of ponderosa pine is influenced by stand BA, drought, herbivory, and interactions between extreme climatic events.

Arizona↗

USGS2004

Simulating the dynamics of linear forests in Great Plains agroecosystems under changing climates

Most forest growth models are not suitable for the highly fragmented, linear (or linearly shaped) forests in the Great Plains agroecosystems (e.g., windbreaks, riparian forest buffers) where such forests are a minor but ecologically important component of the land mosaics. This study used SEEDSCAPE, a recently modified gap model designed for cultivated land mosaics in the Great Plains, to simulate the effects of climate change on the dynamics of such linear forests. We simulated the dynamics of windbreaks with different initial planting species richness and widths (light changes as the selected resulting factor) using current climate data and nested regional circulation models (RegCMs). Results indicated that (1) it took 70-80 simulation years for the linear forests to reach a steady state under both normal (present-day) and warming climates; (2) warming climates would reduce total aboveground tree biomass and the spatial variation in biomass but increase dominance in the linear forests, especially in the upland forests; (3) linear forests with higher planting species richness and smaller width produced higher aboveground tree biomass per unit area; and (4) same species performed very differently with different climate scenarios, initial planting diversity, and forest widths. Although the model still needs further improvements (e.g., the effects of understory species should be included), the model can serve as a useful tool in modeling the succession of linear forests in human-dominated land mosaics under changing climates and may also have significant practical implications in other systems.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2002

Map Showing Seacliff Response to Climatic and Seismic Events, Seacliff State Beach, Santa Cruz County, California

INTRODUCTION The coastal cliffs along much of the central California coast are actively retreating. Large storms and periodic earthquakes are responsible for most of the documented seacliff slope failures. Long-term average erosion rates calculated for this section of coast (Moore and others, 1999) do not provide the spatial or temporal data resolution necessary to identify the processes responsible for retreat of the seacliffs, where episodic retreat threatens homes and community infrastructure. Research suggests that more erosion occurs along the California coast over a short time scale, during periods of severe storms or seismic activity, than occurs during decades of normal weather or seismic quiescence (Griggs and Scholar, 1998; Griggs, 1994; Plant and Griggs, 1990; Griggs and Johnson, 1979 and 1983; Kuhn and Shepard, 1979). This is the second map in a series of maps documenting the processes of short-term seacliff retreat through the identification of slope failure styles, spatial variability of failures, and temporal variation in retreat amounts in an area that has been identified as an erosion hotspot (Moore and others, 1999; Griggs and Savoy, 1985). This map presents seacliff failure and retreat data from Seacliff State Beach, California, which is located seven kilometers east of Santa Cruz (fig. 1) along the northern Monterey Bay coast. The data presented in this map series provide high-resolution spatial and temporal information on the location, amount, and processes of seacliff retreat in Santa Cruz, California. These data show the response of the seacliffs to both large magnitude earthquakes and severe climatic events such as El Ni?os; this information may prove useful in predicting the future response of the cliffs to events of similar magnitude. The map data can also be incorporated into Global Information System (GIS) for use by researchers and community planners. Four sets of vertical aerial photographs (Oct. 18, 1989; Jan. 27, 1998; Feb. 9, 1998; and March 6, 1998) were orthorectified and digital terrain models (DTMs) were generated and edited for this study (see Hapke and Richmond, 2000, for description of techniques). The earliest set of photography is from 1989, taken immediately following the Loma Prieta earthquake. These photographs are used to document the response of the seacliffs to seismic shaking, as well as to establish a baseline cliff-edge position to measure the amount of retreat of the cliff edge over the following decade. The remaining three sets of photographs were collected using the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Aerial Mapping System (CAMS) during the 1997-98 El Ni?o (see Hapke and Richmond, 1999; 2000). The CAMS photographs were taken before, during, and after severe storms and are used to examine seacliff response to these storms. In addition to the analyses of photogrammetrically processed data, field mapping identified joints, faults, and lithologic variations along this section of seacliff.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗

USGS2010

Long-term increases in young-of-the-year growth of Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis and environmental influences

Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis young-of-year (YOY) growth was used as a proxy to examine the long-term response of a high-latitude fish population to changing climate from 1978 to 2004. YOY growth increased over time (r2 = 0·29) and was correlated with monthly averages of the Arctic oscillation index, air temperature, east wind speed, sea-ice concentration and river discharge with and without time lags. Overall, the most prevalent correlates to YOY growth were sea-ice concentration lagged 1 year (significant correlations in 7 months; r 2 = 0·14-0·31) and Mackenzie River discharge lagged 2 years (significant correlations in 8 months; r 2 = 0·13-0·50). The results suggest that decreased sea-ice concentrations and increased river discharge fuel primary production and that life cycles of prey species linking increased primary production to fish growth are responsible for the time lag. Oceanographic studies also suggest that sea ice concentration and fluvial inputs from the Mackenzie River are key factors influencing productivity in the Beaufort Sea. Future research should assess the possible mechanism relating sea ice concentration and river discharge to productivity at upper trophic levels.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

USGS2015

Effects of harvesting forest biomass on water and climate regulation services: A synthesis of long-term ecosystem experiments in eastern North America

Demand for woody biomass fuels is increasing amidst concerns about global energy security and climate change, but there may be negative implications of increased harvesting for forest ecosystem functions and their benefits to society (ecosystem services). Using new methods for assessing ecosystem services based on long-term experimental research, post-harvest changes in ten potential benefits were assessed for ten first-order northern hardwood forest watersheds at three long-term experimental research sites in northeastern North America. As expected, we observed near-term tradeoffs between biomass provision and greenhouse gas regulation, as well as tradeoffs between intensive harvest and the capacity of the forest to remediate nutrient pollution. In both cases, service provision began to recover along with the regeneration of forest vegetation; in the case of pollution remediation, the service recovered to pre-harvest levels within 10 years. By contrast to these two services, biomass harvesting had relatively nominal and transient impacts on other ecosystem services. Our results are sensitive to empirical definitions of societal demand, including methods for scaling societal demand to ecosystem units, which are often poorly resolved. Reducing uncertainty around these parameters can improve confidence in our results and increase their relevance for decision-making. Our synthesis of long-term experimental studies provides insights on the social-ecological resilience of managed forest ecosystems to multiple drivers of change.

Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, Neversink River↗

USGS2014

The geochemistry of deep-sea coral skeletons: a review of vital effects and applications for palaeoceanography

Deep-sea corals were discovered over a century ago, but it is only over recent years that focused efforts have been made to explore the history of the oceans using the geochemistry of their skeletal remains. They offer a promising archive of past oceanic environments given their global distribution, layered growth patterns, longevity and preservation as well as our ability to date them using radiometric techniques. This paper provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art in terms of geochemical approaches to using deep-sea coral skeletons to explore the history of the ocean. Deep-sea coral skeletons have a wide array of morphologies (e.g. solitary cup corals, branching colonial corals) and materials (calcite, aragonite and proteins). As such their biomineralization strategies are diverse, leading to complex geochemistry within coral skeletons. Notwithstanding these complications, progress has been made on developing methods for reconstructing the oceanographic environment in the past using trace elements and isotopic methods. Promising approaches within certain coral groups include clumped isotopes and Mg/Li for temperature reconstructions, boron isotopes and radiocarbon for carbon cycling, εNd, and radiocarbon for circulation studies and δ 15 N, P/Ca and Ba/Ca for nutrient tracer studies. Likewise there is now a range of techniques for dating deep-sea corals skeletons (e.g. U-series, radiocarbon), and determining their growth rates (e.g. radiocarbon and 210 Pb). Dating studies on historic coral populations in the Atlantic, Southern Ocean and Pacific point to climate and environmental changes being dominant controls on coral populations over millennial and orbital timescales. This paper provides a review of a range of successes and promising approaches. It also highlights areas in which further research would likely provide new insights into biomineralization, palaeoceanography and distribution of past coral populations.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗

USGS2001

Knickzone propagation in the Black Hills and northern High Plains: A different perspective on the late Cenozoic exhumation of the Laramide Rocky Mountains

Geomorphic research in the Black Hills and northern High Plains poses an intriguing hypothesis for the Cenozoic evolution of this salient of the Laramide Rockies. Most recently, geologists have appealed to late Cenozoic epeirogenic uplift or climate change to explain the post-Laramide unroofing of the Rockies. On the basis of field mapping and the interpretation of long-valley profiles, we conclude that the propagation of knickzones is the primary mechanism for exhumation in the Black Hills. Long profiles of major drainages show discrete breaks in the slope of the channel gradient that are not coincident with changes in rock type. We use the term knickzones to describe these features because their profiles are broadly convex over tens of kilometers. At and below the knickzone, the channel is incising into bedrock, abandoning a flood plain, and forming a terrace. Above the knickzone, the channel is much less incised, resulting in a broad valley bottom. Numerous examples of stream piracy are documented, and in each case, the capture is recorded in the same terrace level. These observations are consistent with migrating knickzones that have swept through Black Hills streams, rearranging drainages in their wake. We demonstrate there are two knickzone fronts associated with mapped terraces. Preliminary field evidence of soil development shows that these terraces are time transgressive in nature. Our data strongly suggest that knickzone propagation must be considered a viable mechanism driving late Cenozoic fluvial incision and exhumation of the northern High Plains and adjacent northern Rocky Mountains.

South Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS2020

What are the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in western North America? A systematic map protocol

Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors, and can affect the growth, development, fecundity, dispersal, and demographic trends of populations. Changes in temperature and precipitation, and resulting shifts in plant phenology, winter severity, drought and wildfire conditions, invasive species distribution and abundance, predation, and disease have the potential to directly or indirectly affect ungulates. However, ungulate responses to climate variability and change are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map protocol aiming to describe the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in North America. This map will help to identify knowledge gaps and clusters of evidence, and can be used to inform future research directions and adaptive management strategies.

Environmental Evidence↗

USGS2016

Alaska Arctic marine fish ecology catalog

The marine fishes in waters of the United States north of the Bering Strait have received new and increased scientific attention over the past decade (2005–15) in conjunction with frontier qualities of the region and societal concerns about the effects of Arctic climate change. Commercial fisheries are negligible in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, but many marine species have important traditional and cultural values to Alaska Native residents. Although baseline conditions are rapidly changing, effective decisions about research and monitoring investments must be based on reliable information and plausible future scenarios. For the first time, this synthesis presents a comprehensive evaluation of the marine fish fauna from both seas in a single reference. Although many unknowns and uncertainties remain in the scientific understanding, information presented here is foundational with respect to understanding marine ecosystems and addressing dual missions of the U.S. Department of the Interior for energy development and resource conservation.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2004

Global environmental databases from CEOS agencies

The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) is an international organization charged with coordinating international civil spaceborne missions designed to observe and study planet Earth. Comprising 44 space agencies and other national and international organizations, CEOS is recognized as the major international forum for the coordination of Earth observation satellite programs and for the interaction of these programs with users of satellite data worldwide. CEOS was created in 1984 in response to a recommendation from the Economic Summit of Industrialized Nations Working Group on Growth, Technology, and Employment’s Panel of Experts on Satellite Remote Sensing. This group recognized the multidisciplinary nature of satellite Earth observation and the value of coordination across all proposed missions. The CEOS members collect, maintain, apply, and make available data from space missions that encompass the atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanographic fields. Collectively, these members possess petabytes of Earth observation data critical to understanding the Earth environment. Uses include monitoring oil slicks, evaluating human-induced changes to the atmosphere, determining mineral exploration areas, assessing the environmental effects of volcanic eruptions, measuring the growth of urban areas, determining where landscapes have changed because of urban growth trends, improving the efficiency of fishing as a world food stock, monitoring pest infestation, managing crop production, predicting climate and weather, and numerous other applications vital to industry, national infrastructures, and the world as a whole. The vast amount of satellite obtained, environmental data the CEOS members possess represents a fertile resource for researchers worldwide to exploit.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2013

An overview of the Southern Nevada Agency Partnership science and research synthesis

Maintaining and restoring the diverse ecosystems and resources that occur in southern Nevada in the face of rapid socio-economic and ecological change presents numerous challenged to Federal land managers. Rapid population growth since the 1980s, the land uses associated with that growth, and the interactions of those uses with the generally dry and highly variable climate result in numerous stresses to ecosystems, species, and cultural resource. In addition, climate models predict that the rate of temperature increase and, thus, changes in ecological processes, will be highest for ecosystems like the Mojave Desert. The Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP; http:www.SNAP.gov) was established in 1999 to address common issues pertaining to public lands in southern Nevada. Partners include the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and USDA Forest Service and they work with each other, the local community, and other partners. SNAP agencies manage more than seven million acres of public lands in southern Nevada (95% of the land area). Federal land includes two national recreation areas, two national conservation area, four national wildlife refuges, 18 congressionally designated wilderness areas, five wilderness study areas, and 22 areas of critical environmental concern. The partnership's activities are mainly centered in Southern Nevada's Clark County (fig. 1.1), but lands managed by SNAP partner agencies also include portions of Lake Mead National Recreation Area in Mohave County, Arizona, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and USDA Forest Service-managed lands in Lincoln and Nye Counties, Nevada, and all lands and activities managed by the Southern Nevada District Office of the Bureau of Land Management. These lands encompass nine distinct ecosystem types (fig. 1.2), support multiple species of management concern an 17 listed species, and are rich in cultural and historic resource. This introductory executive summary discusses the Science and Research Strategy developed by the SNAP agencies, the Science and Research Report, and need for science-based management in southern Nevada.

Nevada↗

USGS2014

Historical and contemporary imagery to assess ecosystem change on the Arctic coastal plain of northern Alaska

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low-relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at unprecedented rates. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) research initiative was developed to investigate and forecast these rapid changes in the physical environment of the Arctic, and the associated changes to wildlife populations, in order to inform key management decisions by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Forecasting future wildlife responses to changes in the Arctic can benefit greatly from historical records that inform what changes have already occurred. Several Arctic wildlife and plant species have already responded to climatic and physical changes to the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Thus, we located historical aerial imagery to improve our understanding of recent habitat changes and the associated response to such changes by wildlife populations. In this report, we describe and make available a set of 61 georectified aerial images of the Arctic Coastal Plain (taken from 1948 to 2010) that were obtained by the USGS to inform research objectives of the USGS CAE Initiative. Here, we describe the origins, metadata, and public availability of these images that were obtained within four main study areas on the Arctic Coastal Plain: Teshekpuk Lake Special Area, Chipp River, the Colville River Delta, and locations along the Dalton Highway Corridor between the Brooks Range and Deadhorse. We also provide general descriptions of observable changes to the geomorphology of landscapes that are apparent by comparing historical and contemporary images. These landscape changes include altered river corridors, lake drying, coastal erosion, and new vegetation communities. All original and georectified images and metadata are available through the USGS Alaska Science Center Portal (search under ‘Project Name’ using title of this report) or by contacting ascweb@usgs.gov .

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Multiple-scale relationships between vegetation, the wildland–urban interface, and structure loss to wildfire in California

Recent increases in destructive wildfires are driving a need for empirical research documenting factors that contribute to structure loss. Existing studies show that fire risk is complex and varies geographically, and the role of vegetation has been especially difficult to quantify. Here, we evaluated the relative importance of vegetation cover at local (measured through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and landscape (as measured through the Wildland–Urban Interface) scales in explaining structure loss from 2013 to 2018 in California—statewide and divided across three regions. Generally, the pattern of housing relative to vegetation better explained structure loss than local-scale vegetation amount, but the results varied regionally. This is likely because exposure to fire is a necessary first condition for structure survival, and sensitivity is only relevant once the fire reaches there. The relative importance of other factors such as long-term climatic variability, distance to powerlines, and elevation also varied among regions. These suggest that effective fire risk reduction strategies may need to account for multiple factors at multiple scales. The geographical variability in results also reinforces the notion that “one size does not fit all”. Local-scale empirical research on specific vegetation characteristics relative to structure loss is needed to inform the most effective customized plan.

California↗