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At least 1,135 records · Page 63Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Effects of climate change on midwestern ecosystems: Appalachian – Interior – Northeast Mesic Forest

The Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest ecosystem, historically buffered by cool, moist conditions, may experience significant stress under future climate change, particularly due to intensifying droughts and milder winters in the midwestern United States. Droughts are expected to intensify in frequency and severity, depleting soil moisture, increasing tree mortality, and reshaping species composition. Increasing aridity and disrupted hydrologic cycles will likely accelerate soil erosion, deplete nutrients, and heighten wildfire risk. Meanwhile, milder winters may reduce snowpack insulation, increase freeze-thaw cycles, and alter growing seasons, potentially amplifying cold stress, disrupting phenology, and contributing to shifts in habitat structure and community composition. While easing winter severity may temporarily boost plant productivity and facilitate species migration into and throughout the Midwest, it can also increase the risk of frost damage for early-leafing trees and disrupt ecological relationships, such as plant-pollinator interactions. Together, these stressors may drive fundamental shifts in habitat structure and community composition, favoring drought-, fire-, and cold-tolerant species, while historically dominant, moisture-dependent species decline. Species with limited drought resistance, such as those with shallow roots or low water-use efficiency, may be especially vulnerable, while drought-adapted taxa could gain a competitive advantage. This shift could trigger a departure from over a century of mesophication in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, which has favored shade-loving, moisture-dependent species in fire-suppressed landscapes. As a result, these forests may be particularly ill-equipped to withstand the novel environmental conditions imposed by intensifying droughts and milder winters. The Appalachian-Northeast Mesic Forest habitat group, dominated by eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) and eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ), is likely particularly vulnerable, as both dominant species are projected to decline due to increasing drought stress and shifting competitive dynamics. In the North-Central Beech - Maple - Basswood Forest, the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa may be more vulnerable than more eastern portions of the habitat due to its already drier conditions, with climate change expected to push these communities beyond favorable conditions. Species interactions, including invasive species, pests, and herbivory, are also likely to be reshaped by climate change, compounding stress on habitat groups throughout the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest. Warmer winters and increased disturbance may facilitate the expansion of invasive species, which outcompete native vegetation and alter ecosystem dynamics. At the same time, pests and pathogens are likely to become more destructive, as milder winters enhance their survival and spread and drought weakens tree defenses. Additionally, rising white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) populations, supported by warmer winters, may shift forest regeneration patterns by selectively browsing on sensitive seedlings and saplings, limiting the recruitment of historically dominant tree species while favoring browse-resistant plants. Collectively, these pressures can drive significant and ongoing ecological transformation in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, highlighting the need for adaptive management strategies to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2014

A multiscale, hierarchical model of pulse dynamics in arid-land ecosystems

Ecological processes in arid lands are often described by the pulse-reserve paradigm, in which rain events drive biological activity until moisture is depleted, leaving a reserve. This paradigm is frequently applied to processes stimulated by one or a few precipitation events within a growing season. Here we expand the original framework in time and space and include other pulses that interact with rainfall. This new hierarchical pulse-dynamics framework integrates space and time through pulse-driven exchanges, interactions, transitions, and transfers that occur across individual to multiple pulses extending from micro to watershed scales. Climate change will likely alter the size, frequency, and intensity of precipitation pulses in the future, and arid-land ecosystems are known to be highly sensitive to climate variability. Thus, a more comprehensive understanding of arid-land pulse dynamics is needed to determine how these ecosystems will respond to, and be shaped by, increased climate variability.

Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systemati↗
USGS2017

Mangrove species' responses to winter air temperature extremes in China

The global distribution and diversity of mangrove forests is greatly influenced by the frequency and intensity of winter air temperature extremes. However, our understanding of how different mangrove species respond to winter temperature extremes has been lacking because extreme freezing and chilling events are, by definition, relatively uncommon and also difficult to replicate experimentally. In this study, we investigated species-specific variation in mangrove responses to winter temperature extremes in China. In 10 sites that span a latitudinal gradient, we quantified species-specific damage and recovery following a chilling event, for mangrove species within and outside of their natural range (i.e., native and non-native species, respectively). To characterize plant stress, we measured tree defoliation and chlorophyll fluorescence approximately one month following the chilling event. To quantify recovery, we measured chlorophyll fluorescence approximately nine months after the chilling event. Our results show high variation in the geographic- and species-specific responses of mangroves to winter temperature extremes. While many species were sensitive to the chilling temperatures (e.g., Bruguiera sexangula and species in the Sonneratia and Rhizophora genera), the temperatures during this event were not cold enough to affect certain species (e.g., Kandelia obovata , Aegiceras corniculatum , Avicennia marina, and Bruguiera gymnorrhiza ). As expected, non-native species were less tolerant of winter temperature extremes than native species. Interestingly, tidal inundation modulated the effects of chilling. In comparison with other temperature-controlled mangrove range limits across the world, the mangrove range limit in China is unique due to the combination of the following three factors: (1) Mangrove species diversity is comparatively high; (2) winter air temperature extremes, rather than means, are particularly intense and play an important ecological role; and (3) due to afforestation and restoration efforts, several species of non-native mangroves have been introduced beyond their natural range limits. Hence, from a global perspective, mangroves in China provide valuable opportunities to advance understanding of the effects of freezing and chilling temperatures on mangroves. Within the context of climate change, our findings provide a foundation for better understanding and preparing for mangrove species-specific responses to future changes in the duration and intensity of winter temperature extremes.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2025

Modeling diverse environmental responses of reservoirs to floating photovoltaic systems

Floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems are emerging as a promising strategy for large-scale clean energy production worldwide. However, by altering key physical drivers such as solar radiation and wind mixing, FPV installations may have also unintended consequences for lakes and reservoirs. Given the wide diversity of freshwater systems globally, understanding the consistency in direction and magnitude of environmental responses to FPV deployment is critical for informed regulatory oversight and sustainable energy development. Here, we used process-based models to simulate the effects of FPV coverage on 11 reservoirs across the United States. This is the first multi-reservoir analysis using a laterally averaged 2D process-based modeling framework to systematically evaluate FPV impacts across diverse climatic and morphometric contexts, enabling direct comparison of magnitude and direction of responses among systems. Specifically, we evaluated changes in (1) surface and outflow temperature, (2) thermocline depth, (3) water column stability, (4) dissolved oxygen concentrations, and (5) potential suitable habitat availability for warm- and cold-water fishes. We quantified changes in these response variables by an iterative approach that simulates increases in FPV coverage and compares them with reference conditions. We summarized responses for winter (January–February) and summer (July–August). As expected, our simulations show that increasing FPV coverage consistently cooled surface waters and altered thermal stratification patterns, but the magnitude and environmental implications of these changes varied among reservoirs. Notably, greater FPV coverage led to increased variability in habitat suitability for aquatic species, with some reservoirs exhibiting distinct and sometimes divergent responses. These findings underscore the importance of considering local environmental contexts when assessing FPV impacts. While large-scale FPV systems offer potential benefits for climate mitigation, their ecological effects, particularly on thermally sensitive biota, require careful site-specific evaluation to avoid unintended consequences to local freshwater biodiversity.

Arkansas, Idaho, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, Washingt↗
USGS2022

MASTREE+: Time-series of plant reproductive effort from six continents

Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long-lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time-series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population-level time-series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time-series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well-studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time-series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open-access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web-based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long-lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2024

Wildfire probability estimated from recent climate and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region

Background Wildfire is a major proximate cause of historical and ongoing losses of intact big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities and declines in sagebrush obligate wildlife species. In recent decades, fire return intervals have shortened and area burned has increased in some areas, and habitat degradation is occurring where post-fire re-establishment of sagebrush is hindered by invasive annual grasses. In coming decades, the changing climate may accelerate these wildfire and invasive feedbacks, although projecting future wildfire dynamics requires a better understanding of long-term wildfire drivers across the big sagebrush region. Here, we integrated wildfire observations with climate and vegetation data to derive a statistical model for the entire big sagebrush region that represents how annual wildfire probability is influenced by climate and fine fuel characteristics. Results Wildfire frequency varied significantly across the sagebrush region, and our statistical model represented much of that variation. Biomass of annual and perennial grasses and forbs, which we used as proxies for fine fuels, influenced wildfire probability. Wildfire probability was highest in areas with high annual forb and grass biomass, which is consistent with the well-documented phenomenon of increased wildfire following annual grass invasion. The effects of annuals on wildfire probability were strongest in places with dry summers. Wildfire probability varied with the biomass of perennial grasses and forbs and was highest at intermediate biomass levels. Climate, which varies substantially across the sagebrush region, was also predictive of wildfire probability, and predictions were highest in areas with a low proportion of precipitation received in summer, intermediate precipitation, and high temperature. Conclusions We developed a carefully validated model that contains relatively simple and biologically plausible relationships, with the goal of adequate performance under novel conditions so that useful projections of average annual wildfire probability can be made given general changes in conditions. Previous studies on the impacts of vegetation and climate on wildfire probability in sagebrush ecosystems have generally used more complex machine learning approaches and have usually been applicable to only portions of the sagebrush region. Therefore, our model complements existing work and forms an additional tool for understanding future wildfire and ecological dynamics across the sagebrush region.

Fire Ecology↗
USGS1992

Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) program: Data availability and research at the Northern Temperate Lakes site in north-central Wisconsin

More than three thousand kettle lakes, widely dispersed within a mixed temperate forest ecosystem, are predominant features of the Northern Highland area of north-central Wisconsin. A hydrological and biogeochemical investigation of seven of these lakes and their watershed area is currently in progress as part of the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The objectives of the overall WEBB program are to: (1) improve understanding of processes controlling water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes in freshwater systems, the interactions among those processes, and their relations to climatic variables; and (2) improve the capability to predict freshwater, energy, and biogeochemical budgets over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The focus of the WEBB project in Wisconsin is hydrologic research in the Northern Temperate Lakes (NTL) area of the state. Based on the premise that an understanding of hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles in the watershed is predicated on a thorough understanding of the individual components that control the water flow, the project involves a detailed study of the hydrologic budget, including the roles of rainfall, streamflow, ground water, and flow in the unsaturated zone. It also involves investigation of ground-water/ surface-water interactions. The objectives of the Northern Temperate Lakes WEBB project are to: (1) describe processes controlling water and solute fluxes in the NTL watersheds; (2) examine interactions among those processes and their relations to climatic variables; and (3) improve the capability to predict changes in water and solute fluxes for a range of spatial and temporal scales. A variety of procedures will be used to address the objectives of the project including: installation of piezometers, lysimeters, stream-gaging sites, precipitation collectors, climate-monitoring instruments; analysis of transport of nutrients and other solutes through the system; analysis of changes in isotopic composition of water; and temperature profiling. The implementation of these procedures is described in this report. The NTL-WEBB study area includes seven lakes that are also the site of a Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) project, sponsored by the National Science Foundation. This project incorporates diverse research investigations conducted by faculty and research associates of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The research orientation of NTL-LTER is principally toward aquatic ecology and geochemistry of the lakes. The WEBB research plan, with its emphasis on hydrologic processes in the lake watersheds, is designed to complement and enhance the LTER work.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2019

Implications of climate scenarios for Badlands National Park resource management

Badlands National Park (BADL) hosts a myriad of natural and cultural resources, including bison and black-footed ferrets, the mixed grass prairie they live in, 37-75 million-year-old fossils, and historic buildings, trails, and roads. All are sensitive to climate, but anticipating precisely how each will be affected by climate change is difficult. In the face of this challenge, park resource managers must nevertheless make forward-looking decisions and take action to meet resource management goals. Fortunately, tools exist to identify strategies and actions likely to succeed under a range of potential future climate conditions. Two such tools—qualitative scenario planning and quantitative ecological simulation modeling—were used to anticipate management challenges and identify solutions for BADL and adjacent federal and tribal lands in the coming decades (through 2050). This brief summarizes and synthesizes results of this work. Although the brief focuses on BADL, it also includes several key insights gained from examining management approaches on adjacent lands.

South Dakota↗
USGS2023

Factors influencing autumn–winter movements of midcontinent Mallards and consequences for harvest and habitat management

Annual phenology and distributions of migratory wildlife have been noticeably influenced by climate change, leading to concerns about sustainable populations. Recent studies exploring conditions influencing autumn migration departure have provided conflicting insights regarding factors influencing the movements of Mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ), a popular game species. We determined factors affecting timing and magnitude of long-distance movements of 97 juvenile Mallards during autumn-winter across the midcontinent of North America marked with implanted transmitters in North and South Dakota, 2018–2019. Factors influencing variation in movement timing, along with direction and magnitudes, depended on type of movement (i.e., regional [25–310 km], initial migration, or subsequent migration movements [>310 km]). Photoperiod influenced probability of initiating all movements, although the effect was most influential for regional movements. Minimum temperature most influenced initial migration events (probability of movement increased 29% for each 1°C decrease); favorable winds also increased likelihood of initial migration events. Probability of subsequent migration events increased 80% for each 1 cm increase in depth of snow. Subsequent migration movements also were 2.0 times more likely to occur on weekend days, indicating disturbance from humans may influence movements. Migration distances increased 166 km for each 1°C reduction in minimum temperature. We also observed markedly different autumn-winter distributions of marked birds between years. Median locations during autumn-winter 2018–2019 were ~250 km farther north and ~300 km farther west during mid-December–January compared to the same time in 2019–2020. Concurrently, harvest rates for marked females and males were 10% and 26% during autumn-winter 2018–2019 and 26% and 31% during autumn-winter 2019–2020. Climate-related changes may result in increasingly variable autumn-winter distributions, with implications for wildlife recreationalists, conservation planners, and harvest managers.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2019

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler ( Setophaga kirtlandii ), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

Michigan↗
USGS2022

Demographic effects of a megafire on a declining prairie grouse in the mixed-grass prairie

Recent studies have documented benefits of small, prescribed fire and wildfire for grassland-dependent wildlife, such as lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicintus ), but wildlife demographic response to the scale and intensity of megafire (wildfire >40,000 ha) in modern, fragmented grasslands remains unknown. Limited available grassland habitat makes it imperative to understand if increasing frequency of megafires could further reduce already declining lesser prairie-chicken populations, or if historical evolutionary interactions with fire make lesser prairie-chickens resilient. To evaluate lesser prairie-chicken demographic response to megafires, we compared lek counts, nest density, and survival rates of adults, nests, and chicks before (2014–2016) and after (2018–2020) a 2017 megafire in the mixed-grass prairie of Kansas, USA (Starbuck fire ~254,000 ha). There was a 67% decline in attending males on leks post-fire and a 57% decline in occupied leks post-fire. Despite population declines as indicated by lek counts, adult female breeding season survival ( Ŝ ) was similar pre- ( Ŝ = 0.65 ± 0.08 [SE]) and post-fire (0.61 ± 0.08), as was chick survival (pre-fire: 0.23 ± 0.07; post-fire: 0.27 ± 0.11). Nest survival appeared lower post-fire (pre-fire: 0.38 ± 0.06; post-fire: 0.20 ± 0.06), but did not differ at the 95% confidence interval. Nest density of marked females declined 73% in areas burned by megafire. Although lesser prairie-chickens persisted in the study area and we documented minimal effects on most demographic rates, reduced lesser prairie-chicken abundance and reproductive output suggests full recovery may take >3 years. Increased propensity for megafire resulting from suppression of smaller fires, compounded by climate change and woody encroachment, may impose a short-term (3–5 year) threat to already declining lesser prairie-chicken populations.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2019

Effects of a changing climate on the hydrological cycle in cold desert ecosystems of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau

Climate change is already resulting in changes in cold desert ecosystems, lending urgency to the need to understand climate change effects and develop effective adaptation strategies. In this review, we synthesize information on changes in climate and hydrologic processes during the last century for the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau, and discuss future projections for the 21st century. We develop mid-century projections of temperature and climate for the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau at timescales relevant to managers (2020 -2050), and discuss concepts and strategies for adapting to the projected changes. For the instrumented record in the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau (1985-2011), a temperature increase of 0.7°C to 1.4°C has been documented, but changes in precipitation have been relatively minor with no clear trends. Climate projections for 2020 to 2050 indicate that temperatures will continue to increase, especially in winter and during the night. Precipitation is more difficult to project and estimates range from an 11% decrease to 25% increase depending on location. Recent records indicate that the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau are becoming more arid, a trend that is projected to continue. Droughts are likely to become more frequent and last longer, invasive annual grasses are likely to continue to expand, and the duration and severity of wildfire seasons are likely to increase. Climate projections can help in developing adaptive management strategies for actual or expected changes in climate. Strategies include reducing the risks of nonnative invasive plant spread and wildfires that result in undesirable transitions, planning for drought, and where necessary, facilitating the transition of populations, communities and ecosystems to new climatic conditions. A proactive approach to planning for and adapting to climate change is needed and publicly available internet based resources on climate data and planning strategies are available to help meet that need.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washingto↗
USGS2020

Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity

Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last millennium with five ecosystem model simulations. In both observations and models, spatial patterns in ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability are strongly governed by ecosystem sensitivity rather than climate exposure. Ecosystem sensitivity was higher in models than observations and highest in simpler models. Model-data comparisons suggest that interactions among biodiversity, demography and ecophysiology processes dampen the sensitivity of forest composition and biomass to climate variability and change. Integrating ecosystem models with observations from timescales extending beyond the instrumental record can better understand and forecast the mechanisms regulating forest sensitivity to climate variability in a complex and changing world.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2025

Population genomics reveals local adaptation related to temperature variation in two stream frog species: Implications for vulnerability to climate warming

Identifying populations at highest risk from climate change is a critical component of conservation efforts. However, vulnerability assessments are usually applied at the species level, even though intraspecific variation in exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity play a crucial role in determining vulnerability. Genomic data can inform intraspecific vulnerability by identifying signatures of local adaptation that reflect population-level variation in sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Here, we address the question of local adaptation to temperature and the genetic basis of thermal tolerance in two stream frogs ( Ascaphus truei and A. montanus ). Building on previous physiological and temperature data, we used whole-genome resequencing of tadpoles from four sites spanning temperature gradients in each species to test for signatures of local adaptation. To support these analyses, we developed the first annotated reference genome for A. truei . We then expanded the geographic scope of our analysis using targeted capture at an additional 11 sites per species. We found evidence of local adaptation to temperature based on physiological and genomic data in A. montanus and genomic data in A. truei , suggesting similar levels of sensitivity (i.e., susceptibility) among populations regardless of stream temperature. However, invariant thermal tolerances across temperatures in A. truei suggest that populations occupying warmer streams may be most sensitive. We identified high levels of evolutionary potential in both species based on genomic and physiological data. While further integration of these data is needed to comprehensively evaluate spatial variation in vulnerability, this work illustrates the value of genomics in identifying spatial patterns of climate change vulnerability.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2011

Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: Concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four Yucca moths

Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community - Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial period, and the inferred demographic changes substantially predate Holocene climate changes.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2020

Tropical understory herbaceous community responds more strongly to hurricane disturbance than to experimental warming

The effects of climate change on tropical forests may have global consequences due to the forests’ high biodiversity and major role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, we document the effects of experimental warming on the abundance and composition of a tropical forest floor herbaceous plant community in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. This study was conducted within Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) plots, which use infrared heaters under free‐air, open‐field conditions, to warm understory vegetation and soils + 4°C above nearby control plots. Hurricanes Irma and María damaged the heating infrastructure in the second year of warming, therefore, the study included one pretreatment year, one year of warming, and one year of hurricane response with no warming. We measured percent leaf cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, and species richness and diversity within three warmed and three control plots. Results showed that one year of experimental warming did not significantly affect the cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, species richness, or species diversity. In contrast, herbaceous cover increased from 20% to 70%, bare ground decreased from 70% to 6%, and species composition shifted pre to posthurricane. The negligible effects of warming may have been due to the short duration of the warming treatment or an understory that is somewhat resistant to higher temperatures. Our results suggest that climate extremes that are predicted to increase with climate change, such as hurricanes and droughts, may cause more abrupt changes in tropical forest understories than longer‐term sustained warming.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2017

Systems approaches for coastal hazard assessment and resilience

The framework presented herein supports a changing paradigm in the approaches used by coastal researchers, engineers, and social scientists to model the impacts of climate change and sea level rise (SLR) in particular along low-gradient coastal landscapes. Use of a System of Systems (SoS) approach to the coastal dynamics of SLR is encouraged to capture the nonlinear feedbacks and dynamic responses of the bio-geo-physical coastal environment to SLR, while assessing the social, economic, and ecologic impacts. The SoS approach divides the coastal environment into smaller subsystems such as morphology, ecology, and hydrodynamics. Integrated models are used to assess the dynamic responses of subsystems to SLR; these models account for complex interactions and feedbacks among individual systems, which provides a more comprehensive evaluation of the future of the coastal system as a whole. Results from the integrated models can be used to inform economic services valuations, in which economic activity is connected back to bio-geo-physical changes in the environment due to SLR by identifying changes in the coastal subsystems, linking them to the understanding of the economic system and assessing the direct and indirect impacts to the economy. These assessments can be translated from scientific data to application through various stakeholder engagement mechanisms, which provide useful feedback for accountability as well as benchmarks and diagnostic insights for future planning. This allows regional and local coastal managers to create more comprehensive policies to reduce the risks associated with future SLR and enhance coastal resilience.

Book chapter↗
USGS2010

Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative Science and Management Workshop Proceedings, May 12-14, 2009, Laramie, Wyoming

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hosted the second Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) Science and Management Workshop at the University of Wyoming Conference Center and Hilton Garden Inn on May 12, 13, and 14, 2009, in Laramie, Wyo. The workshop focused on six topics seen as relevant to ongoing WLCI science and management activities: mapping and modeling resources for decisionmaking; data information and management; fish and wildlife research; changing landscapes; monitoring; and reclamation and offsite mitigation. Panelists gave presentations on ongoing research in these six areas during plenary sessions followed by audience discussions. Three breakout groups focused on discussing wildlife, reclamation, and monitoring. Throughout the plenary sessions, audience discussions, and breakout groups, several needs were repeatedly emphasized by panelists and workshop participants: developing a conservation plan and identifying priority areas and species for conservation actions; gaining a deeper understanding of sagebrush ecology; identifying thresholds for wildlife that can be used to create an 'early warning system' for managers; continuing to collect basic data across the landscape; facilitating even greater communication and partnership across agencies and between scientists and land managers; and engaging proactively in understanding new changes on the landscape such as wind energy development and climate change. Detailed proceedings from the workshop are captured and summarized in this report.

Scientific Investigations Report↗