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Geologic map of Scoggins Dam, Henry Hagg Lake, and Scoggins Valley, Washington County, Oregon

New geologic mapping (Wells and others, 2020b) and geophysical mapping (Blakely and others, 2000; McPhee and others, 2014; Wells and others, 2020a) document kilometers of Cenozoic right-lateral offset along the Gales Creek Fault Zone, a major, northwest-striking fault zone forming the boundary between the Tualatin Valley and the Coast Range. The Bureau of Reclamation’s (Reclamation) Scoggins Dam (fig. 1), in the Coast Range foothills west of Forest Grove, Oregon, lies within the Gales Creek Fault Zone as mapped by Wells and others (2020a, 2020b; fig. 2). Active faults of the Gales Creek Fault Zone defined by paleoseismic trenching (Redwine and others, 2017, 2019b, Horst and others, 2018, 2019, 2021, and Wells and others, 2020a) are presently mapped as projecting through the existing dam. The Pacific Northwest Region of Reclamation requested assistance with geologic studies around Scoggins Dam to provide better understanding of fault locations and their activity, which are needed to design a modification of the dam (Maguire, 2019a, b). The scope of this project includes detailed geology of the existing Scoggins Dam site, Henry Hagg Lake, the reservoir behind the dam, and Scoggins Valley downstream of the existing dam, particularly around a potential new dam site, where Scoggins Creek cuts through a narrow gap formed by a resistant felsic tuff bed that crosses the valley.

Oregon

Evaluation of daily stream temperature predictions (1979-2021) across the contiguous United States using a spatiotemporal aware machine learning algorithm

Stream temperature controls a variety of physical and biological processes that affect ecosystems, human health, and economic activities. We used 42 years (1979–2021) of data to predict daily summary statistics of stream temperature across >50,000 stream reaches in the contiguous United States using a recurrent graph convolution network. We comprehensively documented the performance – both across all reaches and by stream type (e.g., reservoir or groundwater influence) – as a baseline for future improvement. The model showed reach-level RMSE of <2 °C with 90 % prediction intervals that contain 90.7 % of observations. We also assessed how the model captured variability in ecologically relevant metrics (e.g., R 2 for annual 7-day maximum = 0.76; R 2 for days exceeding 25 °C = 0.75). This model does not outperform state-of-the-art machine learning efforts (e.g., RMSE ≤1.5 °C) due to a limited input set but does provide the most spatially complete modeling to date to support water availability assessments.

contiguous United States

Formation of the Mount Weld rare earth deposit, Western Australia: Geochronology constraints

Constraining the age of protracted chemical weathering in stable cratonic areas that may form thick regoliths and the potential enrichment of various elements is challenging. Economic deposits of aluminium, iron, copper, nickel, cobalt, niobium, and rare earth elements (REEs) form in this manner. Determining the age of formation can provide key information for exploration of similar deposits as well as to better constrain paleoclimatic conditions. This study describes our effort to constrain the age of formation of the Mount Weld deposit, a world-class carbonatite-derived REE laterite deposit. We utilize multiple geochronological techniques on different minerals. The oldest dates, ranging from ca. 100 to 50 Ma, were from laser ablation ICPMS, Lu-Hf dating of churchite, a heavy REE phosphate mineral formed by mineral saturation in groundwater. Growth bands on individual minerals show a younging outwards. 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology of cryptomelane, a potassium-bearing manganese oxide mineral, yielded ages ranging from ca. 40 to 26 Ma. Similarly, (U–Th)/He geochronology of goethite yielded ages from ca. 45 to 19 Ma.

Mount Weld deposit

Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation

As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area, the Engineering and Risk Project (ERP) of the Geologic Hazards Science Center conducts civil engineering research to extend natural hazards science to risk assessments. The ERP includes predominantly, but not exclusively, staff funded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. A major focus of the ERP is to deliver actionable information to decisionmakers that helps promote the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The report discusses briefly the ERP’s evolution and scope, its organization structure, describes key products and deliverables, their efforts to engage with external partners, and its strategy and vision in conducting range of engineering and risk research. The research topics outlined in this report, as developed by the ERP, may be used to facilitate project planning activities during the next 10 years and serve as a longer-term planning resource for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and Geologic Hazards Science Center.

Circular

Multi-lithofacies alluvial characterization via airborne electromagnetic-borehole fusion using ordinary interval kriging and geologic constraints

Airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey provides extensive spatial coverage and detailed resolution at the near surface and can be used to develop hydrogeological models. However, utilization of AEM data is not straightforward because AEM resistivity is an indirect measurement for inferring sediment types. This study develops an ordinary interval kriging (OIK) algorithm and a resistivity-to-multi-lithofacies (R2ML) data fusion workflow for multi-lithofacies alluvial characterization. OIK utilizes irregular interval data to construct three-dimensional (3D) resistivity fields from one-dimensional inverted AEM resistivity models. The R2ML workflow maps the resistivity field generated from OIK into a multi-facies lithological model, incorporating geologic constraints derived from well logs and geological observations. The numerical and real-world cases demonstrate that OIK is computationally efficient, accounts for 3D anisotropy, and minimizes the smoothing effect, thereby preserving resistivity contrasts and reducing interpolation uncertainty. The methodology is applied to lithologic characterization of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA) in the Shellmound area, Mississippi, U.S. A frequency-domain AEM survey was conducted to support groundwater studies for the managed aquifer recharge (MAR) to the MRVA. The resulting lithological model, including four types of lithofacies—clay, very fine sand, fine-medium sands, and graveliferous sands, illustrates the geomorphological processes of the MRVA and implies potential MAR. The alignment between the lithological model and existing geological and hydrogeological investigations demonstrates that OIK and R2ML workflow effectively capture the subsurface architecture of the MRVA. The methods have broad applicability for characterizing alluvial aquifers through AEM-borehole data fusion, supporting sustainable groundwater management.

Mississippi

Deformation mechanisms in quartz veins and shear zones elucidate the origin of gold mineralization at Pogo, Alaska

Pogo is a quartz vein hosted, ca. 8 Moz gold deposit. Although it has similarities to orogenic and magmatic-hydrothermal deposits, its origin remains enigmatic. Observations from surface exposures, underground workings, and drill core provide new constraints on quartz vein origins with implications for mineralization. Abundant, largely barren metamorphic segregation quartz veins are found throughout interior Alaska and share characteristics with mineralized quartz veins at Pogo. Pogo quartz veins show crystal plastic deformation fabrics consistent with greenschist to amphibolite facies metamorphism and a lack of internal shear. In contrast, gold in Pogo quartz veins occurs in brittle microfaults and fractures with sulphides such as arsenopyrite and pyrrhotite. Major and minor cataclastic shear zones also exist at Pogo. Cataclastic shear zones commonly cut the mineralized quartz veins and porphyroclasts are dominated by quartz with the same plastic deformation fabrics found in the major Pogo quartz veins. The porphyroclasts, and the carbonaceous clay-rich matrix they sit in, also contain gold indicating that the shear zones postdate quartz and earliest gold deposition. These observations suggest that competency contrasts between the quartz veins and their phyllosilicate-rich host rocks controlled transient permeability formed by late, preferential brittle deformation events localizing sulphide ± gold deposition.

Alaska

Shallow storage of the explosive Earthquake Flat Pyroclastics magma body, Okataina Volcanic Center, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand: Evidence from phase-equilibria experiments

Rhyolitic tuffs range widely in their crystal contents from nearly aphyric to crystal-rich, and their crystal cargoes inform concepts of upper crustal magma reservoirs. The Earthquake Flat pyroclastics (Okataina Volcanic Center, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand) are 10 km 3 of rhyolitic tuffs with abundant (~ 40 vol.%) plagioclase and quartz, minor biotite, hornblende, and orthopyroxene, and accessory Fe-Ti oxides, apatite, and zircon, set in high-silica rhyolitic glass. Major minerals form large, euhedral phenocrysts and abundant glomerocrysts with few disequilibrium textures excepting some faintly resorbed quartz. Plagioclase phenocrysts have thick rims of nearly constant composition near An 30 , and hornblende is weakly zoned or unzoned. The abundant and texturally complex mineral assemblage contrasts with the nearby (~ 25 km), nearly synchronous, but more voluminous and crystal-moderate rhyolite tuffs from Rotoiti caldera. New H 2 O-saturated phase-equilibria results on the erupted Earthquake Flat melt (glass) determine its co-saturation with the partial phenocryst assemblage of plagioclase, quartz, biotite, and Fe-Ti oxides at: 140 MPa, 755 ºC. These closely approximate the conditions of the pre-eruptive magma body assuming it was saturated with nearly pure H 2 O and at an f O 2 of ~ Ni–NiO. Absence of hornblende and orthopyroxene from the synthesized assemblages may result from those minerals being in a peritectic reaction relation with melt to produce biotite, so they would not grow from the liquid used as starting material. Experimental results on Rotoiti rhyolite (Nicholls et al. 1992) show that the two bodies resided at similar pressures, temperatures, and f O 2 s. Lower crystal abundance of the Rotoiti tuffs may result from slight compositional differences. We interpret that the Earthquake Flat pyroclastics were sourced from the crystal-rich periphery of a mushy reservoir system with the Rotoiti occupying a more melt-rich central location. Uncertain is whether this was a single intrusion zoned continuously in crystallinity, or discrete adjacent intrusions, but our results illustrate and quantify complexities of magma storage across relatively short distances.

North Island, Taupo Volcanic Zone

Multiple machine-learning estimation of groundwater levels and trends for the regional Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer provides irrigation, public, and domestic water supplies across the south-central United States. Declining groundwater levels require improved characterization of changing conditions. Traditional potentiometric-surface mapping does not use all available water-level data or quantify uncertainty. To address these limitations, we developed a data-driven multiple machine-learning (MML) framework delivered through two open-source R packages. The covMRVAgen1 software assembles covariates to 155,960 monthly groundwater levels from 57,695 wells; the mmlMRVAgen1 software trains Cubist and Random Forest models, blends them, and makes 1-kilometer gridded predictions of monthly potentiometric surfaces for the period January 1980–December 2022. The MML approach provides a methodological foundation for region-scale spatiotemporal groundwater prediction and uncertainty quantification, generating 90-percent prediction limits with appropriate empirical coverage. Model performance is acceptable, with a root-mean-square error of about 4.2 feet, standard deviation of 24.82 feet, and a normalized Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.973.

Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missou

Characterization of hydrogeologic units using matrix properties, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Determination of the suitability of Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada, as a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste requires the use of numerical flow and transport models. Input for these models includes parameters that describe hydrologic properties and the initial and boundary conditions for all rock materials within the unsaturated zone, as well as some of the upper rocks in the saturated zone. There are 30 hydrogeologic units in the unsaturated zone, and each unit is defined by limited ranges where a discrete volume of rock contains similar hydrogeologic properties. These hydrogeologic units can be easily located in space by using three-dimensional lithostratigraphic models based on relation- ships of the properties with the lithostratigraphy. Physical properties of bulk density, porosity, and particle density; flow properties of saturated hydraulic conductivity and moisture-retention characteristics; and the state variables (variables describing the current state of field conditions) of saturation and water potential were determined for each unit. Units were defined using (1) a data base developed from 4,892 rock samples collected from the coring of 23 shallow and 8 deep boreholes, (2) described lithostratigraphic boundaries and corresponding relations to porosity, (3) recognition of transition zones with pronounced changes in properties over short vertical distances, (4) characterization of the influence of mineral alteration on hydrologic properties such as permeability and moisture-retention characteristics, and (5) a statistical analysis to evaluate where boundaries should be adjusted to minimize the variance within layers. This study describes the correlation of hydrologic properties to porosity, a property that is well related to the lithostratigraphy and depositional and cooling history of the volcanic deposits and can, therefore, be modeled to be distributed laterally. Parameters of the hydrogeologic units developed in this study and the relation of flow properties to porosity that are described can be used to produce detailed and accurate representations of the core-scale hydrologic processes ongoing at Yucca Mountain.

Nevada

A novel drive-point multilevel system to investigate PFAS and other contaminants of global concern in the hyporheic zone of a wastewater effluent dominated stream

Contaminants found in treated wastewater discharged to streams, including pharmaceuticals and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), are of global concern due to their deleterious effects on aquatic ecosystems and potential impacts to human health. Hyporheic zones have strong potential for contaminant attenuation. Assessing this potential requires collection of physical and biogeochemical data within the hyporheic zone. This study tested the applicability of a novel drive-point multilevel system (DP-MLS) for quantifying head profiles and characterizing contaminant concentrations in the hyporheic zone of a temperate region effluent dominated stream (EDS). DP-MLS, each with 4 ports, were installed in the stream bed at two sites, DS-1 and DS-2, 0.2 and 4.7 km downstream of the effluent outfall, respectively. Head profiles were measured and groundwater collected for analysis of pharmaceuticals and PFAS temporally over two years. The DP-MLS withstood rapid changes in stage, ice formation, and floating debris. Vertical hydraulic gradients (VHG) were generally upward but varied in magnitude indicating heterogeneity in hydraulic conductivity and variability in flow conditions. Upward VHG were also about 2X larger at DS-1 than at DS-2. Contaminant concentration profiles consistently showed penetration of pharmaceuticals and PFAS to 1 m below the bed at DS-2 while there was less penetration, lower groundwater concentrations, and more temporal variability in concentrations at DS-1. Integration of the physical and chemical data suggests weaker upwelling conditions at DS-2 are more easily reversed during periods of high stream stage, which could facilitate migration of wastewater contaminants into the bed. However, further studies incorporating other transport processes and reach scale dynamics are required to fully characterize these exchanges. Overall, this study demonstrates the efficacy of these novel DP-MLSs for characterization of the hyporheic zone and provides new insights into the occurrence, composition, and persistence of wastewater derived contaminants in the hyporheic zone of a well-studied EDS.

Iowa

Eruptive history of northern Harrat Rahat—Volume, timing, and composition of volcanism over the past 1.2 million years

Harrat Rahat, one of several large, basalt-dominated volcanic fields in the western part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is a prime example of continental, intraplate volcanism. Excellent exposure makes this an outstanding site to investigate changing volcanic flux and composition through time. We present 93 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages and 6 36 Cl surface-exposure ages for volcanic deposits throughout northern Harrat Rahat that, integrated with a new geologic map, define 12 eruptive stages. Exposed volcanic deposits in the study area erupted less than 1.2 million years ago (Ma), and 214 of 234 identified eruptions occurred less than 570 thousand years ago (ka). Two eruptions were in the Holocene, including a historically described basaltic eruption in 1256 C.E. and a trachyte eruption newly recognized as Holocene (4.2±5.2 ka). An estimated approximately 82 cubic kilometers (km 3 ; dense rock equivalent) of volcanic products can be documented as having erupted since 1.2 Ma, though this is a lower limit because of concealment of deposits older than 570 ka. Over the last 570 thousand years (k.y.), the average eruption rate was 0.14 cubic kilometers per thousand years (km 3 /k.y.), but volcanism was episodic with periods alternating between low (0.04–0.06 km 3 /k.y.) and high (0.1–0.3 km 3 /k.y.) effusion rates. Before 180 ka, eruptions vented from the volcanic field’s dominant eastern vent axis and from a subsidiary, diffuse, western vent axis. After 180 ka, volcanism focused along the eastern vent axis, and the composition of volcanism varied systematically along its length from basalt dominated in the north to trachyte dominated in the south. We hypothesize that these compositional variations younger than 180 k.y. reflect the growth of a mafic intrusive complex beneath the southern part of the vent axis, which led to the development of evolved magmas. Lastly, these new age data allow for a reassessment of the volcanic recurrence interval at northern Harrat Rahat. Based on available data, volcanism in northern Harrat Rahat over the last 180 k.y. is poorly described using a Poisson distribution with a single recurrence interval. Instead, data for northern Harrat Rahat are better described using a mixed exponential distribution that is applicable for volcanic systems characterized by two different eruptive states, where one state with a longer recurrence interval corresponding to periods of low eruption frequency and one state with a shorter recurrence interval corresponding to periods of high eruption frequency. The preferred model for northern Harrat Rahat over the last 180 k.y. uses a long recurrence interval of 4.0 k.y. and a short recurrence interval of 0.22 k.y.

Professional Paper

The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards

Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR, 47% of current subaerial barrier island area would be flooded daily, and the 1-year return period storm would flood 74%. For 20-year return period storms, over 85% is projected to be flooded for any SLR. The modelled groundwater table is already shallow (< 2 m deep), and while projected to shoal to the land surface with SLR, marine flooding is projected to overtake areas with emergent groundwater. Projected shoreline retreat reaches an average of 178 m with 1 m of SLR and no interventions, which is over 60% of the current island width at narrower locations. Compounding these hazards is subsidence, with one-third of the study area currently lowering at > 2 mm/yr. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of managing natural barrier systems such as those managed by federal park systems tasked with maintaining natural ecosystems and protecting cultural resources.

North Carolina

Using geologic mapping to understand temporal and spatial relations of closely clustered to concurrent latest Holocene surface ruptures on two intersecting faults, south-central Mojave Desert, California

The Pinto Mountain Fault Zone (PMFZ) marks a major structural boundary between east-oriented sinistral faults of the eastern Transverse Ranges (to the south) and northwest-oriented dextral faults of the south-central Mojave Desert (to the north). These structural fault systems comprise sinistral and dextral deformational domains of the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ) that intersect one another in the Copper Mountain and Twentynine Palms areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting detailed geologic mapping and geochronologic investigations designed to clarify geometric, kinematic, and temporal relations among the two domains, that are focused on the central portion of the left-lateral PMFZ near its intersection with the right-lateral Copper Mountain Fault (CMF) and Mesquite Lake Fault Zone (MLFZ).

California

Evaluating machine learning approaches to identify and predict oil and gas produced water lithium concentrations

Recently, the demand for battery-grade lithium has substantially increased, largely due to electrification of the transportation sector. The search for new lithium sources has turned to produced waters (frequently brines), a large-volume wastewater by-product of oil and gas extraction. Geochemical analysis indicates the presence of varying concentrations of lithium from produced water samples collected across the United States and represented in the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Produced Water Geochemical Database, as well as mixtures of Marcellus Shale produced water included in the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s Oil and Gas Well Waste Reports. We first examined whether the geochemical signature of the lithium-bearing produced waters is sufficiently distinct so that machine learning (ML) can be used to correctly classify samples to the formation of origin. The produced water sample data used to assess classification accuracy were from the Marcellus Shale, Utica Shale and Point Pleasant Formation (Utica), and Smackover Formation oil and gas wells. Further, we evaluated the potential for ML to accurately classify Marcellus Shale produced water spatially (i.e., northeast versus southwest Pennsylvania). We then investigated whether ML algorithms applied to a suite of geochemical concentration data (i.e. Ba, Br, Cl, K, Mg, Sr) may be used to predict the lithium concentration of an unknown sample. Finally, we applied an estimated economic lithium grade cutoff of 150 milligrams per liter (mg/l) and assessed the utility of ML to predict whether a produced water sample would fall above or below the grade cutoff based on the suite of geochemical parameters. Four machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Trees (GBT), Extreme Boosting (XGBoost), and Deep Neural Networks (DNN) were assessed. This study successfully demonstrates that all four machine learning methods can precisely and accurately estimate lithium concentrations and geologic formation classification. The products of this study contribute to the growing body of knowledge aimed at expanding the lithium resource base within the United States.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mi

A case study of maximum depositional ages from terrestrial sandstones near the Cretaceous—Paleogene transition, western Williston Basin, USA

We present a new Bayesian method for deriving maximum depositional ages from detrital K-feldspar using total-fusion 40 Ar/ 39 Ar data. Individual analyses weighted by K/Ca ratio, age uncertainty, and percent radiogenic argon prioritize a result to come from accurately measured volcanic sources. Results from this method applied to sandstones from the Hell Creek region of northeastern Montana show that detrital K-feldspar maximum depositional ages align closely with detrital U-Pb zircon ages as well as tephra based chronostratigraphic constraints from both 40 Ar/ 39 Ar and U-Pb data. An age model informed by maximum depositional ages and available tephra data provides an estimate of 1.74 ± 1.04 Ma for the duration of deposition for the Hell Creek Formation. Combined age model and maximum depositional age data suggest ≤ 1.84 Ma of missing time is represented by the Hell Creek and Fox Hills formational disconformity, coinciding with the final regression of the Western Interior seaway.

Montana

Biogeochemical and community ecology responses to the wetting of non-perennial streams

Transitions between dry and wet hydrologic states are the defining characteristic of non-perennial rivers and streams, which constitute the majority of the global river network. Although past work has focused on stream drying characteristics, there has been less focus on how hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry respond and interact during stream wetting. Wetting mechanisms are highly variable and can range from dramatic floods and debris flows to gradual saturation by upwelling groundwater. This variation in wetting affects ecological and biogeochemical functions, including nutrient processing, sediment transport and the assembly of biotic communities. Here we synthesize evidence describing the hydrological mechanisms underpinning different types of wetting regimes, the associated biogeochemical and organismal responses, and the potential scientific and management implications for downstream ecosystems. This combined multidisciplinary understanding of wetting dynamics in non-perennial streams will be key to predicting and managing for the effects of climate change on non-perennial ecosystems.

Nature Water

Groundwater quality near the Placerita Oil Field, California, 2018

Groundwater-quality data and potential fluid-migration pathways near the Placerita Oil Field in Los Angeles County, California, were examined by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine if oil-field fluids (water and gas from oil-producing and non-producing zones) have mixed with groundwater resources. Six of the 13 new groundwater samples collected for this study contained petroleum hydrocarbons, thermogenic gas, inorganic chemical signatures, and (or) isotopic values consistent with potential mixing with fluids from hydrocarbon-bearing formations. For historical groundwater samples, benzene was the most detected petroleum hydrocarbon. The historical groundwater samples with a benzene concentration greater than 0.5 micrograms per liter were from environmental monitoring wells at industrial or commercial facilities unrelated to oil and gas development that, in many cases, have identified soil or groundwater contamination and were not typically analyzed for other constituents that could provide additional lines of evidence for potential mixing with oil-field fluids. Methane was not detected in any of the 12 historical samples with a reported measurement. Reviewing historical data revealed factors that could potentially adversely affect groundwater quality in the study area. These factors include modified hydraulic gradients caused by large volumes of water extracted from the main production area and reinjected downgradient into nonproducing zones, well-barrier failures in wells constructed in the northern part of the oil field before the 1970s, well-barrier failures in produced-water disposal wells downgradient from the main production area, and naturally occurring hydrocarbons at shallow intervals. The groundwater samples most geochemically similar to samples from hydrocarbon-bearing formations were in areas where hydrocarbons are naturally occurring at shallow intervals and where oil development is at shallow depths. Additional data for hydraulic heads, water quality, and formation temperatures at multiple depths in areas with large injection volumes and well-integrity issues are needed to evaluate whether those factors have contributed to mixing between fluids from oil-producing or injection formations and groundwater resources.

California

Reservoir evolution, downstream sediment transport, downstream channel change, and synthesis of geomorphic responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to water years 2012–18 streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Chapter A. Introduction Fall Creek Dam impounds Fall Creek Lake, a 10-kilometer-long reservoir in western Oregon and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) primarily for flood-risk management (or flood control) in late autumn through early spring months, as well as for water quality, irrigation, recreation, and habitat in late spring through early autumn. Since 2011 (water year [WY] 2012), Fall Creek Lake has been temporarily drawn down each year to facilitate downstream passage of juvenile spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) through the 55-meter (m) high dam. This annual dam operation is temporary, typically lasting about 1–2 weeks from WY 2012 through 2020 (drawdown operations in WY 2022–24 have increased to more than 6 weeks). Drawdown of the reservoir results in lake levels being lowered to the elevation near the historical, pre-dam streambed. The annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18 have improved fish passage and led the USACE to formally adopt streambed drawdowns as part of annual operations at Fall Creek Dam. However, temporarily lowering the lake to streambed creates free-flowing conditions in the reservoir that result in the erosion and episodic export of predominantly sand and finer-grained sediments (less than 2 millimeters [mm]) to the lower gravel-bed reaches of Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The introduction of large volumes of sand and finer-grain sediment into the dam-regulated reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam prompted questions about the geomorphic responses to annual streambed drawdowns within Fall Creek Lake and downstream reaches along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with USACE initiated a comprehensive geomorphic and sediment transport investigation to assess the coupled processes of reservoir erosion, sediment evacuation from Fall Creek Lake, and patterns of sediment transport and deposition in reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam that have resulted from annual streambed drawdowns. The purpose of this report is to systematically describe the processes of sediment erosion, transport, and deposition at Fall Creek Lake and geomorphic interactions between reaches upstream and downstream from Fall Creek Dam that relate to dam operations. Specifically, this report focuses on evaluating geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 through 2018 and placing drawdown-induced geomorphic responses within the broader context of physiographic and historical conditions and dam operations of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers. Key objectives for this study were to characterize changes in reservoir morphology and substrate at Fall Creek Lake, describe the character and temporal pattern of sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam, characterize geomorphic changes in channel reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam, and relate these data to the annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18. This study uses multiple independent monitoring and measurement approaches to assess site, reach, and river-scale geomorphic responses to drawdowns to inform dam and reservoir management. Patterns and processes of reservoir evolution were assessed with geomorphic mapping and volumetric analyses of topography through comparison of multiple digital surface models (DSMs). Just downstream from Fall Creek Dam, analyses of sediment export from the reservoir focused on suspended sediment but also incorporated bedload analyses to assess sediment sizes. Geomorphic assessments downstream from the dam used reach-scale and site-scale approaches to document changes in channel morphology and substrate, including site measurements of sand and finer-grained sediment deposition and in-channel bed-material, volumetric change analyses from comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs), and repeat geomorphic mapping. Findings from this study inform river management and dam operations by providing an understanding of (1) coupled upstream-downstream geomorphic responses to the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns, (2) geomorphic responses of Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns in comparison to drawdowns at other large dams, (3) controls on reservoir erosion and downstream geomorphic responses, and (4) implications for future hydrogeomorphic changes that may result from continued drawdowns and monitoring activities to assess those changes. Chapter B. Reservoir Morphology and Evolution Related to Dam Operations at Fall Creek Lake To understand the volume and distribution of sediment accumulation in Fall Creek Lake since dam closure in 1965, decadal-scale sedimentation patterns (spanning approximately 1965–2016) are evaluated using a combination of storage curve analyses and geomorphic mapping. Short-term (drawdown event-scale) patterns of erosion, sedimentation, and sediment export downstream are evaluated using a combination of geomorphic mapping and change detection analyses that quantify the distribution and total volume of sediment erosion and deposition within Fall Creek Lake. Geomorphic mapping of reservoir topography and analyses of historical datasets reveals four categories of landforms and sediment processes within Fall Creek Lake related to lake level operations: lacustrine sedimentation expressed in the reservoir floor, fluvial erosion and deposition within historical stream channels during streambed drawdowns, channel-like features created by erosion within the reservoir floor during streambed drawdowns, and erosion on reservoir hillslopes. Where the reservoir floor is mapped for this study as pelagic (deep water), deposition up to 3 meters (m) thick by lacustrine processes and burial of pre-dam topography with deposits thinning toward the edges of the valley floor and upstream areas of reservoir are observed. Despite over 50 years of sediment accumulation since dam construction, the main stream channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks (or reservoir thalwegs) through the reservoir are well defined, though their distinct morphology is likely influenced by a long history of recurring historical drawdowns to or near streambed since dam construction. Unregulated streamflow and sediment transport through the reservoir primarily are confined to these channels during the streambed drawdown periods. Erosional channel-like features created by drawdowns are carved through underlying, unconsolidated reservoir floor sediments and are most prominent in the lower reservoir below minimum conservation pool (the low pool elevation during winter flood season); sediment generated from the formation of these drawdown channels is more likely to be transported through and out of the reservoir than sediment deposits along the reservoir hillslopes at the valley margins that are separated from main channels by areas of low-gradient reservoir floor. Morphologic changes in the lower reservoir topography between January 2012 and November 2016 indicate overall net erosion of about 129,500 cubic meters (m 3 ). The most prominent geomorphic changes occurred along the main channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks near the Fall Creek Dam where incision, lateral migration, and slumping banks resulted in vertical and lateral adjustments to channel position, whereas most changes fell below the detectable limit on higher-elevation reservoir floor surfaces except where erosion occurred along features mapped as drawdown channels. Chapter C. Sediment Delivery from Fall Creek Lake and Transport through Downstream Reaches USGS implemented a sediment monitoring program in WY 2013–18 to evaluate the quantity and character of reservoir sediment exported from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns. Turbidity and suspended sediments were monitored annually autumn through spring to span the WY 2013–18 streambed drawdowns; however, unequal monitoring timeframes each year reduced the ability to compare results and factors affecting sediment export from the reservoir difficult between years. These data were originally measured to develop regressions and compute suspended-sediment loads (SSL). Bedload sediment monitoring from a cableway at the Fall Creek streamgage was completed in the autumn-winter of WY 2013 and 2017. The limited number of samples and presumed variability in sediment supply from the reservoir precluded construction of streamflow and bedload discharge relations to compute more than instantaneous bedload. Sand and finer-grained silts and clays were transported from the reservoir in suspension, though some coarser grains (up to 32 mm) were also mobilized and transported downstream from the dam as bedload. Observations of increased sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam coincided with lake levels approaching about 3 m (10 feet [ft] or elevation 690 ft) above the streambed regulating outlets. Suspended-sediment loads computed for the full monitoring periods WY 2013–18 at the Fall Creek streamgage, located 1.4 kilometers (km) downstream from Fall Creek Dam, range from 54,700 metric tons (t) in WY 2013 to 13,900 t in WY 2018. Although the total annual SSL varied from year to year, the overall seasonal patterns of suspended sediment transport throughout each year were similar during monitoring in WY 2013-18. Suspended-sediment loads were low prior to the drawdown, then increased rapidly as lake levels lowered and approached the streambed. In the weeks following the drawdown period, as pool levels were increased, SSL remained slightly elevated above pre-drawdown levels but generally declined through the following winter and spring except during streamflow-driven pulses of suspended-sediment transport. WY 2013 had the greatest total computed SSL for each streambed drawdown and partial-year monitoring period. SSL computed for the partial-year period have generally decreased since WY 2013 and have varied by about 6,800 t with the exception of WY 2014. WY 2014 SSL reflects anomalously low sediment export due to low streamflows and freezing conditions that stabilized reservoir floor deposits. Bedload measurements in the short 1.4-km reach between Fall Creek Dam and the Fall Creek streamgage showed an inverse correlation between bedload transport rates and discharge, which probably reflects diminishing supply of coarse-sized sediment. Sand was more abundant (60–100 percent) than gravel in bedload samples confirming sand and finer-grained sediment dominated sediment evacuated from the reservoir during streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Chapter D. Geomorphic Responses to Fall Creek Lake Streambed Drawdowns Downstream from Fall Creek Dam In the days, weeks, and months following streambed drawdown operations at Fall Creek Dam through WY 2018, sites downstream from the dam displayed a variety of geomorphic responses to reservoir sediment delivery within the main channel and overbank areas. Evaluation of streambed elevations at two streamgages located 1.4 km downstream from the dam on Fall Creek and 16.3 km downstream from the dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River indicated the effects of drawdown sediment on bed elevations were modest and transient. Repeat particle size measurements (October 2015 and September 2016) at five sites along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River showed similar grain-sized distributions that do not reveal substantial deposition of fine-grained sediment related to the WY 2016 streambed drawdown. Altogether, these findings indicate that transport capacity in the main, low-flow channels of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River during WY 2012–18 was sufficient to mobilize and evacuate reservoir sediments from streambed drawdowns or other bank material and tributary sources. However, other monitoring for this study indicate low-velocity zones in off-channel areas are prime locations for sand and finer-grain sediment deposition. Patterns of overbank sediment accumulation indicate that the magnitude and timing of overbank deposition on bars and low-elevation floodplain varies with proximity to the dam, geomorphic setting, streamflows, and other factors. Sand and finer-grained reservoir sediments carried as suspended-sediment load in the reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam were deposited in overbank areas as observed with clay-horizon markers during WY 2016–17. Overbank deposition quantified with Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) software evaluated landform-scale patterns of erosion and deposition using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys at two sites in the Upper Fall Creek reach and one site in the Jasper reach for 3 years (2012–15) and one site in the Clearwater reach for 6 years (2009–15). Deposition thickness and spatial patterns from the GCD analysis were variable; some sites had dispersed but measurable deposition while at others, deposition was highly localized and exceeded 1 m in depth. Patterns of overbank deposition illustrate interactions among bar morphology, local hydraulics, and suspended-sediment transport dynamics that can create patches of highly localized deposition. The measured deposition at the two Fall Creek GCD sites likely resulted from reservoir sediments released from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns in WY 2016 and 2017 because the limited sediment inputs from bank material (geomorphically laterally stable reach) or tributaries (no significant tributaries) provided few other sediment sources. On the Middle Fork Willamette River, observed patterns of overbank deposition could reflect sediment sourced from upstream tributaries, bank erosion, or Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdown operations. Despite the introduction of several thousand tons of reservoir sediment delivered from the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns to below-dam river corridors, reach-scale mapping of channel features downstream from Fall Creek Dam shows minimal evidence of changes in channel planform or landforms that can be attributed to a drawdowns in WY 2012–16. On Upper Fall Creek reach, widespread increases in gravel bars or other in-channel sediment did not result from the five streambed drawdowns. The main changes attributable to sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake were localized increases in vegetated bar area, particularly on channel margin areas where sand and finer-grain sediment was deposited and rapidly colonized by vegetation. The area of mapped secondary water features decreased between 2005 and 2016, but that may be due to lower discharges depicted in the 2016 aerial photographs and less mapped area of inundation. Primary changes along the Lower Fall Creek reach include a 6.4 percent decrease in area of secondary water features between 2011 and 2016, and a nearly twofold increase in the area of unvegetated bars. Immediately downstream from the Fall Creek confluence, there were negligible changes in the location and areas of vegetated bars and the main wetted channel between 2005 and 2016, and local increases in bar area cannot be attributed solely to deposition of reservoir sediments from Fall Creek Lake because (1) areas along the Middle Fork Willamette River just upstream from the Fall Creek confluence display similar type and magnitude of changes and (2) some of the increases at the confluence area pre-date the drawdowns. The cumulative effect of sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 to 2016 on downstream channel planform and landforms are modest compared to the river-scale transformations and planform changes that occurred in the decades following dam construction. Chapter E. Discussion of Geomorphic Responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to Streambed Drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake Multiple aspects of Fall Creek Dam infrastructure and operations exert first-order controls on the magnitudes of reservoir erosion that occur during the streambed drawdowns and ultimately determine the sediment delivery to downstream reaches. Key aspects of the dam and its operations that are most relevant to assessing geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns include the (1) dam infrastructure, including configuration and size of regulating outlets and their proximity to the streambed which dictates the capacity and competence of the river to deliver sediment to downstream reaches and mode of sediment transport as suspended-sediment load or bedload; (2) frequency of historical drawdowns and long-term, year-round dam operations and lake level management, which partly dictate reservoir morphology and locations and magnitudes of readily erodible materials; (3) dam operations and hydroclimatic conditions during the streambed drawdown (including length of the drawdown and streamflows entering the reservoir), which directly control the timing, duration and magnitude of reservoir erosion and sediment evacuation; and (4) dam operations following the streambed drawdown operation that regulate streamflows (and thereby sediment transport conditions) downstream of Fall Creek Dam which primarily reflect interactions between hydroclimatic conditions and flood control operations. Patterns of sediment erosion and evacuation observed in this study at Fall Creek Lake from WY 2012–18 suggest that reservoir erosion during annual streambed drawdowns may remain similar or decrease in future years assuming (1) annual streambed drawdown operations are implemented in similar manner as the WY 2012–18 drawdowns (in terms of duration, late autumn or early winter implementation, rate of pool-level lowering to reach streambed, and other factors), (2) streambed drawdowns coincide with similar conditions as were observed WY 2012–18 (similar sediment yield into reservoir, low reservoir inflows, limited precipitation, moderate air temperature), and (3) no major geomorphic changes in the main reservoir channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks occur (for example, channel avulsion). Under such conditions, it is hypothesized that the stream channel within the reservoir would achieve a quasi-equilibrium state with respect to annual influx and export of sediment and aided by the substantial amount of in-channel bedrock, will remain laterally stable without erosion across reservoir deposits. Patterns of sediment transport measured at the Fall Creek streamgage downstream from Fall Creek Dam provide insight into the potential effects of future streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Analyses of suspended sediment measured in WY 2013–18 show a major reduction in suspended-sediment loads between WY 2013 and later years, indicating streamflows transporting sediment through the reservoir to downstream reaches during streambed drawdowns have become supply limited. The 6-year suspended-sediment monitoring and sampling program is insufficient to make predictions about future sediment transport conditions because of uneven monitoring periods and varying controls on reservoir sediment erosion. It is likely that future suspended-sediment loads will be variable but similar to those observed in WY 2015–18 if operational, climatic, and geomorphological factors remain similar to those monitored WY 2015–18. Suspended-sediment loads downstream from Fall Creek Lake will likely remain highest when regulating outlets are fully open and Fall Creek is free flowing with the reservoir fully drained with little to no residual pool. Over time, it is possible that the suspended-sediment loads would reflect mobilization of reservoir sediment deposited in the previous year rather than erosion of sediment deposited years or decades earlier. Bedload is likely to remain a small fraction of the total sediment load evacuated from the reservoir and is relatively modest compared with pre-dam bedload transport rates because most coarse sediment remains trapped by the dam. If sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake and ensuing streamflow conditions follow a similar pattern in the future as was assessed in this study spanning WY 2012–18, near-term geomorphic adjustments downstream of the dam are expected to be modest. Barring major operational, climatic, and geomorphological changes, local site-scale deposition on bars, overbank areas, or off-channel features that persists several months after the streambed drawdown will likely continue to be highly variable, ranging from negligible to several centimeters of deposition. At the landform-scale, low velocity areas nearest to Fall Creek Dam will likely continue to undergo rapid deposition immediately during and after a streambed drawdown event, similar to patterns observed for WY 2012–18. Some of the sediment entering these off-channel features and margin areas may be temporarily stored, then later remobilized and dispersed farther downstream. But if newly deposited sediment persists through the following spring, there is a greater likelihood that local vegetation will establish, reinforce deposited material, and trap sediment during later drawdowns. The reach-scale geomorphic changes may become more apparent if (1) streambed drawdowns continued for several decades, and geomorphic changes were measured at decadal scales or (2) the amount of sediment introduced to downstream reaches substantially increased and (or) sediment transport capacity decreased. The continued streamflow regulation of Fall Creek Dam after sediment releases provides an opportunity to strategically manage streamflows during and after the streambed drawdowns to minimize downstream sediment impacts and ensure other operational thresholds are satisfied. This study provides a comprehensive foundation of datasets and geomorphic analyses to inform dam operations at Fall Creek Lake, monitor sediment transport downstream, and consider operational schemes for future drawdowns. The datasets from this study also provide baselines of sediment transport and geomorphic conditions to assess future changes in reservoir and downstream environments. Future monitoring could be tailored to address specific questions regarding the long-term geomorphic effects of streambed drawdowns on fluvial habitats, flood hazards, cultural resources, or downstream water quality. Future monitoring activities could focus on the relevant geomorphic processes and spatial domains within the three categories used for this study: (1) reservoir erosion and net sediment evacuation, (2) sediment delivery to downstream reaches, including magnitude and temporal pattern of sediment transport, and (3) geomorphic responses of downstream reaches to sediment delivery. Specifically, high priority future monitoring activities could include: Repeat topographic or photographic surveys in the reservoir to characterize changes occurring within individual drawdowns, to quantify sediment export, to determine temporal changes in reservoir storage, and to identify locations of erosion and deposition. Continuous, year-round turbidity monitoring supplemented with suspended-sediment measurements at a streamflow-gaging station immediately downstream from the dam to quantify sediment export. Repeat geomorphic monitoring, mapping, or modeling in downstream reaches to track changes in channel and over bank features using a combination of site- and reach-scale monitoring approaches. This could support assessments of sediment deposition and ensuing vegetation encroachment on flood hazards and habitats and examine how sediment transport and depositional processes may be affected by different sediment supply, streamflow, or dam management scenarios.

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