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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Aligning climate models with stakeholder needs: Advances in communicating future rainfall uncertainties for south Florida decision makers

Changes in future precipitation are of great importance to climate data users in South Florida. A recent U.S. Geological Survey workshop, “Increasing Confidence in Precipitation Projections for Everglades Restoration,” highlighted a gap between standard climate model outputs and the climate information needs of some key Florida natural resource managers. These natural resource managers (hereafter broadly defined as “climate data users”) need more tailored output than is commonly provided by the climate modeling community. This study responds to these user needs by outlining and testing an adaptable methodology to select output from ensemble climate‐model simulations based on user‐defined precipitation drivers, using statistical methods common across scientific disciplines. This methodology is developed to provide a “decision matrix” that guides climate data users to specify the subset of models most important to their work based on each user's season (winter, summer, and annual) and the condition (dry, wet, neutral, and no threshold events) of interest. The decision matrix is intended to better communicate the subset of models best representing precipitation drivers. This information could increase users' confidence in climate models as a resource for natural resource planning and can be used to direct future dynamical downscaling efforts. This methodology is based in dynamical processes controlling precipitation via remote and local teleconnections. We also suggest that future climate studies in South Florida include high‐resolution climate model runs (i.e., ocean eddy resolving) in conjunction with dynamical downscaling to adequately capture precipitation variability.

South Florida↗

USGS2012

Science implementation of Forecast Mekong for food and environmental security

Forecast Mekong is a significant international thrust under the Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was launched in 2009 by the U.S. Department of State and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam under U.S. Department of State Secretary Hillary R. Clinton's Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Since 2009, the USGS has worked closely with the U.S. Department of State; personnel from Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam; nongovernmental organizations; and academia to collect and use research and data from the Lower Mekong River Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decisionmakers in future planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the Lower Mekong River Basin. In 2012 Forecast Mekong is highlighting the increasing cooperation between the United States and Lower Mekong River Basin countries in the areas of food and environmental security. Under the DRAGON, Forecast Mekong continues work in interactive data integration, modeling, and visualization system by initiating three-dimensional bathymetry and river flow data along with a pilot study of fish distribution, population, and migratory patterns in the Lower Mekong River Basin. When fully developed by the USGS, in partnership with local governments and universities throughout the Mekong River region, Forecast Mekong will provide valuable planning tools to visualize the consequences of climate change and river management.

Phnom Penh↗

USGS1970

Using radar imagery for crop discrimination: a statistical and conditional probability study

A number of the constraints with which remote sensing must contend in crop studies are outlined. They include sensor, identification accuracy, and congruencing constraints; the nature of the answers demanded of the sensor system; and the complex temporal variances of crops in large areas. Attention is then focused on several methods which may be used in the statistical analysis of multidimensional remote sensing data. Crop discrimination for radar K-band imagery is investigated by three methods. The first one uses a Bayes decision rule, the second a nearest-neighbor spatial conditional probability approach, and the third the standard statistical techniques of cluster analysis and principal axes representation. Results indicate that crop type and percent of cover significantly affect the strength of the radar return signal. Sugar beets, corn, and very bare ground are easily distinguishable, sorghum, alfalfa, and young wheat are harder to distinguish. Distinguishability will be improved if the imagery is examined in time sequence so that changes between times of planning, maturation, and harvest provide additional discriminant tools. A comparison between radar and photography indicates that radar performed surprisingly well in crop discrimination in western Kansas and warrants further study.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2002

Threats to desert tortoise populations: a critical review of the literature

Decision in resource management are generally based on a combination of sociopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, and may be biased by personal values. These three components often contradict each other resulting in controversy. Controversies can usually be reduced when solid scientific evidence is used to support or refute a decision. However, it is important to recognize that data often do little to alter antagonists' positions when differences in values are the bases if the dispute. But, supporting data can make the decision more defensible, both legally and ethically, especially if the data supporting all opposing viewpoints are included in the decision-making process. Resource management decisions must be made using the best scientific information currently available. However, scientific data vary in two important measures of quality: reliability and validity. The reliability of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observations or conclusion can be repeated. Validity of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observation or conclusion reflects what actually occurs in nature. How the data are collected strongly affects the reliability of validity of ecological conclusions that can be made. Research data potentially relevant to management come from different sources, and the source often provides clues to the reliability and, to a certain extent, validity of data. Understanding the quality of data being used to make management decisions helps to separate the philosophical or value-based aspects of arguments from the objective ones, thus helping to clarify the decisions and judgments that need to be made. The West Mojave Plan is a multispecies, bioregional plan for the management of natural resources within a 9.4 million-acre area of the Mojave Desert in California. The plan addresses the legal requirements for the recovery of the desert tortoise ( Gopherus agazzizii ), a threatened species, but also covers an additional approximately 80 species of plants and animals assigned special status by the Bureau of Land Management, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and California Department of Fish and Game. Within the planning area, 28 separate jurisdictions (counties, cities, towns, military installations, etc.) seek programmatic prescriptions that will facilitate streamlined environmental review, result in expedited authorization for development projects, and protect listed and unlisted species into the foreseeable future to avoid or minimize conflicts between proposed development and species' conservation and recovery. All of the scientific data available concerning the biology and management of these approximately 80 species and their habitats must be evaluated to develop a scientifically credible plan. This document provides an overview and evaluation of the knowledge of the major threats to the persistence and recovery of desert tortoise populations. I was specifically asked to evaluate the scientific veracity of the data and reports available. I summarize the data presently available with particular focus on the West Mojave Desert, evaluate the scientific integrity of the data. and identify major gaps in the available knowledge. I do not attempt to provide in-depth details on each study or threat; for more details I encourage the reader to consult the individual papers or reports city throughout this report (many of which are available at most university libraries and at the West Mojave Plan office in Riverside, California). I also do not attempt to characterize or evaluate the past or present management actions, except where they have direct bearing on evaluation of threats, nor do I attempt, for the most part, to acquire, generate, or evaluate new or existing, but uninterpreted data.

California↗

USGS2018

Collections management plan for the U.S. Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center Samples Repository

Since 2002, the Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center Samples Repository has been supporting research by providing secure storage for geological, biological, and geochemical samples; maintaining organization and an active inventory of these sample collections; and providing researchers access to these scientific collections for study and reuse. Over the years, local storage facilities have changed and new collections management strategies have been adapted as sample collections have grown and as research programs and focuses have shifted. The commitment of the Samples Repository to preserve and provide physical samples for future research, however, has remained the same. This report documents the collections management plan developed and implemented by the Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center Samples Repository to manage its scientific collections.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

Field Methods and Quality-Assurance Plan for Quality-of-Water Activities, U.S. Geological Survey, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho

Water-quality activities conducted by the staff of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Project Office coincide with the USGS mission of appraising the quantity and quality of the Nation's water resources. The activities are conducted in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Idaho Operations Office. Results of the water-quality investigations are presented in various USGS publications or in refereed scientific journals. The results of the studies are highly regarded, and they are used with confidence by researchers, regulatory and managerial agencies, and interested civic groups. In its broadest sense, quality assurance refers to doing the job right the first time. It includes the functions of planning for products, review and acceptance of the products, and an audit designed to evaluate the system that produces the products. Quality control and quality assurance differ in that quality control ensures that things are done correctly given the 'state-of-the-art' technology, and quality assurance ensures that quality control is maintained within specified limits.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Integrating principles and tools of decision science into value-driven watershed planning for compensatory mitigation

Several environmental policies strive to restore impaired ecosystems and could benefit from a consistent and transparent process — co-developed with key stakeholders — to prioritize impaired ecosystems for restoration activities. The Clean Water Act, for example, establishes reallocation mechanisms to transfer ecosystem services from sites of disturbance to compensation sites to offset aquatic resource functions that are unavoidably lost through land development. However, planning for the prioritization of compensatory mitigation areas is often hampered by decision-making processes that fall into a myopic decision frame because they are not co-produced with stakeholders. In this study, we partnered with domain experts from the North Carolina Division of Mitigation Services (NCDMS) to co-develop a real-world decision framework to prioritize catchments by potential for the development of mitigation projects following principles of a structured decision-making process and knowledge co-production. Following an iterative decision analysis cycle, domain experts revised foundational components of the decision framework and progressively added complexity and realism as they gained additional insights or more information became available. Through the course of facilitated in-person and remote interactions, the co-development of a decision framework produced three main ‘breakthroughs’ from the perspective of the stakeholder group: a) recognition of the problem as a multi-objective decision driven by several values in addition to biogeophysical goals (e.g., functional uplift; restoring or enhancing lost functionality of ecosystems), b) that the decision comprises a linked and sequential planning-to-implementation process, and c) future risk associated with land-use and climate change must be considered. We also present an interactive tool for ‘on-the-fly’ assessment of alternatives and tradeoff analysis, allowing domain experts to quickly test, react to, and revise prioritization strategies. The decision framework described in this study is not limited to the prioritization of compensatory mitigation activities across North Carolina, but rather serves as a framework to prioritize a wide range of restoration, conservation, and resource allocation activities in similar environmental contexts across the nation.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2013

Anatomical and genetic variation of western Oxyloma (Pulmonata: Succineidae) concerning the endangered Kanab ambersnail ( Oxyloma haydeni kanabense ) in Arizona and Utah

The land snail genus Oxyloma (Pulmonata: Succineidae) includes the Federally endangered Kanab ambersnail (Oxyloma haydeni kanabense Pilsbry), which is known at the time of this study from only two locations in the United States: Three Lakes, Utah, and Vaseys Paradise, Arizona, on the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. Since 1994, the Kanab ambersnail has received much attention because its presence at Vaseys Paradise has implications for the ecosystem-wide management of the Colorado River. This attention is primarily because an experimental high-flow release of water from Glen Canyon Dam in 1996 destroyed or degraded Kanab ambersnail habitat at Vaseys Paradise. This experimental high flow was designed to replicate natural flow regimes throughout the Grand Canyon river corridor. However, as a result of the habitat destruction at Vaseys Paradise, in 1996, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ruled that no further experimental high-discharge floods could be carried out until additional Kanab ambersnail populations were discovered or established. This mandate created a situation where the management of a single endangered species conflicted directly with the management of an entire ecosystem. Although since 1996, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has permitted the use of flows as high as stage heights equivalent to 44,000 cubic feet per second, higher flows were requested by various Grand Canyon stakeholders and scientists but were not possible owing to low storage of Lake Powell. Adding to the controversy about Oxyloma and the Kanab ambersnail were previous anatomical and genetic analyses of the genus, which showed that genetic characteristics of specimens did not correspond with their identifications based on traditional taxonomic criteria, raising questions about the validity of the taxonomy of Oxyloma and the protected status of Kanab ambersnails. Specifically, a previous study suggested that the endangered Kanab ambersnail population at Three Lakes was more closely related to other, non-endangered ambersnail populations across the Southwest. In contrast, the Kanab ambersnail population at Vaseys Paradise appeared to be genetically distinct from all other ambersnail populations studied. Management options for the ambersnail population at Vaseys Paradise, at the time of this study, conflict with ecosystem-wide measures proposed to benefit other natural resources in the Grand Canyon. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will not revise the 1995 Kanab Ambersnail Recovery Plan until further genetic and anatomical analyses provide more fine-scale taxonomic resolution of the identity of Oxyloma populations on the Colorado Plateau and elsewhere in the American Southwest. Likewise, interagency cooperators cannot revise down-listing criteria for the Kanab ambersnail until substantial evidence is provided identifying distinct Oxyloma taxa or a larger group of conspecifics that reasonably could be managed as one species. Therefore, given the current controversy about the taxonomy of Oxyloma and the endangered Kanab ambersnail, new detailed analyses were completed of morphological and genetic variation from many Oxyloma specimens collected at 12 western North American locations. These new data have allowed us to evaluate many issues related to Kanab ambersnail taxonomy. Using this dataset, the study of shells and anatomy indicates that the holotype of Oxyloma haydeni kanabense plausibly can be regarded as a member of the same species as the populations of Oxyloma analyzed in this study. Additionally, the presence of gene flow among all populations is evidence that they are members of the same species. Almost all the observed genetic diversity can be accounted for by short-distance or long-distance dispersal events between populations in this study. Our major taxonomic conclusion is that all samples collected for this study were drawn from populations of the same species.

Arizona;Utah↗

USGS2022

California Deepwater Investigations and Groundtruthing (Cal DIG) I, volume 3 — Benthic habitat characterization offshore Morro Bay, California

Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS) geoform, substrate, and biotic component geographic information system (GIS) products were developed for the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (U.S. EEZ) of south-central California in the region of Santa Lucia Bank motivated by interest in development of offshore wind-energy capacity and infrastructure. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), in coordination with the State of California and many other members of the California Task Force, issued calls for information in 2018 for the study area offshore of Morro Bay, California. The study area is in depths of 500 to 1,200 meters (m) and adjacent to a decommissioned nuclear power plant with a developed electric grid connection, and in an area of high wind resource. BOEM is the lead agency responsible for planning and leasing in the U.S. EEZ and funded this project to assess baseline conditions of, and the potential effects on, the seafloor environment. This project, carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), resulted in three reports: one on biological analysis of seafloor video data, one on analysis of the geologic framework and hazards, and this report on seafloor habitat. The study area consists of 8,424 square kilometers (km 2 ) of multibeam echo sounder (MBES) data acquired during five surveys from 2016 to 2019. Remotely operated vehicle (ROV) video was acquired in 2019 to supervise the classification of the MBES data into habitats. Derivatives of the MBES data were classified into 16 unique biotopes, 6 substrate types, 28 modifier groups, and 22 geoforms. The study area substrate is predominantly soft sediment (mud and fine sand) covering 7,804 km 2 (92.7 percent) of the area. Mixed substrate areas on rocky banks, channel scarps, and the shelf break comprise 404 km 2 (4.8 percent) of the study area. Hard substrate areas are found predominantly on the tops and flanks of banks and on bank ridges that separate canyons incising the banks. Hard substrates comprise 211 km 2 of the study area (2.5 percent). After the bathymetry and backscatter raster images (rasters) were classified, manual editing was also done to remove noise artifacts. This effort was not completely successful and there are numerous erroneous small areas in the rasters that have been passed on to the CMECS polygon product. Nearly 120,000 annotations of organisms and their habitat were made from 25 video transects selected from 185 hours of ROV video. In total, 2,714 km 2 of seafloor were successfully assigned to biotopes. Some biotopes were assigned to separate areas spatially distant from the transects that define the biotope. Expected relations between physical habitat and biota such as the number of species and the substrate induration and rugosity were verified. Slope is typically a predictive variable and was used in the classification of habitat, but the ground truth used for biotic component analysis included very little steeply sloping area. Ground-truth ROV operations were reduced by the sea state; additional ground truth could improve the biotic results and increase confidence in the spatial distribution of classifications reported here.

California↗

USGS2007

Water Resources of the Basin and Range Carbonate-Rock Aquifer System, White Pine County, Nevada, and Adjacent Areas in Nevada and Utah - Draft Report

Summary of Major Findings This report summarizes results of a water-resources study for White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in east-central Nevada and western Utah. The Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system (BARCAS) study was initiated in December 2004 through Federal legislation (Section 131 of the Lincoln County Conservation, Recreation, and Development Act of 2004) directing the Secretary of the Interior to complete a water-resources study through the U.S. Geological Survey, Desert Research Institute, and State of Utah. The study was designed as a regional water-resource assessment, with particular emphasis on summarizing the hydrogeologic framework and hydrologic processes that influence ground-water resources. The study area includes 13 hydrographic areas that cover most of White Pine County; in this report however, results for the northern and central parts of Little Smoky Valley were combined and presented as one hydrographic area. Hydrographic areas are the basic geographic units used by the State of Nevada and Utah and local agencies for water-resource planning and management, and are commonly defined on the basis of surface-water drainage areas. Hydrographic areas were further divided into subbasins that are separated by areas where bedrock is at or near the land surface. Subbasins represent subdivisions used in this study for estimating recharge, discharge, and water budget. Hydrographic areas represent the subdivision used for reporting summed and tabulated subbasin estimates.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1985

Management of ground water and evolving hydrogeologic studies in New Jersey : a heavily urbanized and industrialized state in the northeastern United States

New Jersey is the most densely populated and one of the most industrialized states in the United States. An abundance of freshwater and proximity to major northeastern metropolitan centers has facilitated this development. Pumpage of freshwater from all aquifers in the State in 1980 was 730 million gallons per day (2.76 million cubic meters per day). Management and efficient development of the ground-water resources of the State are the responsibility of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. Laws have been enacted and updated by the State legislature to manage water allocation and to control the disposal of hazardous wastes. Present resource management is guided by the New Jersey Water-Supply Master Plan of 1981. Funding for management activities is partially derived from the sale of state-approved bonds. Effective planning and regional management require accurate and up-to-date hydrologic information and analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Geological Survey, is conducting three intensive ground-water studies involving the collection and interpretation of hydrologic data to meet the urgent water-management needs of New Jersey. These studies are part of a long-term cooperative program and are funded through the Water-Supply Bond Act of 1981. They began in 1983 and are scheduled to be completed in 1988. The project areas are situated in the New Jersey part of the Atlantic Coastal Plain in and near Atlantic City, Camden, and South River. They range in size from 400 to 1,200 mil (1,040 to 3,120 km2). The studies are designed to define the geology, hydrology, and geochemistry of the local ground-water systems. The results of these studies will enable the State to address more effectively major problems in these areas such as declining water levels, overpumping, saltwater intrusion, and ground-water contamination resulting from the improper disposal of hazardous wastes. Specific objectives of these studies by the U.S. Geological Survey are to (1) develop an accurate and up-to-date hydrogeologic data base, (2) design and implement a data-collection program and establish a computerized information management system, (3) refine the conceptualization of the ground-water flow system, and (4) define the geochemistry of the aquifer system by conducting a water-quality appraisal. The objectives are accomplished by standard hydrogeologic methods. Information concerning hydrogeologic framework, ground-water levels, water use, hydraulic characteristics, and water quality in the study areas is compiled from all available sources. Additional data needed are collected through well inventories, surface geophysical surveys, water-quality samplings, water-level measurements, and a well-drilling program. Interpretation of the flow system is based on the use of standard analytical techniques and digital flow modeling. Calibrated flow models will provide ground-water managers with a mechanism to develop and test regional water-supply strategies. Definition of the geochemistry of the aquifer system is accomplished through a variety of methods which depend on the problems and available data in the particular study area. The approach includes statistical analysis of water-quality data, reaction-path modeling, and determination of the movement of chemical constituents using analytical and numerical modeling techniques. A combined staff of 25 to 30 professionals and technicians from the New Jersey District office of the U.S. Geological Survey is committed to the three studies. The staff has specialists in geohydrology, numerical modeling, geochemistry, geophysics, and computer science. The findings of these studies will be published in data reports, interpretive reports, instructional manuals and journal articles.

New Jersey↗

USGS2004

Biodiversity of Fungi : Inventory and Monitoring Methods

Biodiversity of Fungi is essential for anyone collecting and/or monitoring any fungi. Fascinating and beautiful, fungi are vital components of nearly all ecosystems and impact human health and our economy in a myriad of ways. Standardized methods for documenting diversity and distribution have been lacking. An wealth of information, especially regrading sampling protocols, compiled by an international team of fungal biologists, make Biodiversity of Fungi an incredible and fundamental resource for the study of organismal biodiversity. Chapters cover everything from what is a fungus, to maintaining and organizing a permanent study collection with associated databases; from protocols for sampling slime molds to insect associated fungi; from fungi growing on and in animals and plants to mushrooms and truffles. The chapters are arranged both ecologically and by sampling method rather than by taxonomic group for ease of use. The information presented here is intended for everyone interested in fungi, anyone who needs tools to study them in nature including naturalists, land managers, ecologists, mycologists, and even citizen scientists and sophiscated amateurs. Fungi are among the most important organisms in the world; they play vital roles in ecosystem functions and have wide-ranging effects, both positive and negative, on humans and human-related activities. There are about 1.5 million species of fungi. The combination of fungal species and abundances in an ecosystem are often used as indicators of ecosystem health and as indicators of the effects of pollution and of different management and use plans. Because of their significance, it is important that these organisms be monitored. This book is the first comprehensive treatment of fungal inventory and monitoring, including standardized sampling protocols as well as information on study design, sample preservation, and data analysis.

Book↗

USGS2023

Integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan completion assessment — Sagebrush and sage-grouse topic, 2015–20

Loss and degradation of sagebrush rangelands due to an accelerated invasive annual grass-wildfire cycle and other stressors are significant management, conservation, and economic issues in the western United States. These sagebrush rangelands comprise a unique biome spanning 11 states, support over 350 wildlife species, and provide important ecosystem services that include stabilizing the economies of western communities. Impacts to sagebrush ecosystem processes over large areas due to the annual grass-wildfire cycle necessitated the development of a coordinated, science-based strategy for improving efforts to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of sagebrush rangelands, which was framed in 2015 under the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (IRFMS). Central to this effort was the development of an Actionable Science Plan (Plan) that identified 37 priority science needs (Needs) for informing the actions proposed under the 5 topics (Fire, Invasives, Restoration, Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse, Climate and Weather) that were part of the collective focus of the IRFMS. Notable keys to this effort were identification of the Needs co-produced by managers and researchers, and a focus on resulting science being “actionable.” Substantial investments aimed at fulfilling the Needs identified in the Plan have been made since its release in 2016. While the state of the science has advanced considerably, the extent to which knowledge gaps remain relative to identified Needs is relatively unknown. Moreover, new Needs have likely emerged since the original strategy as results from actionable science reveal new questions and possible (yet untested) solutions. A quantifiable assessment of the progress made on the original science Needs can identify unresolved gaps and new information that can help inform prioritization of future research efforts. This report details a systematic literature review that evaluated how well peer-reviewed journal articles and formal technical reports published between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, addressed nine needs (hereinafter, “Needs”) identified under the Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse topic in the Plan. The topic outlined research Needs broadly focused on understanding sagebrush rangelands and population dynamics important for the conservation and management of sage-grouse and other sagebrush-reliant wildlife species. We established the level of progress towards addressing each Need following a standardized set of criteria, and developed summaries detailing how research objectives nested within Needs identified in the Plan (‘Next Steps’) were either addressed well, partially addressed or remain outstanding (in other words, addressed poorly) in the literature through 2020. Our searches resulted in the inclusion of 333 science products that at least partially addressed a Need identified in the Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse topic. The Needs that were well and partially addressed included: development of biome-wide mapping techniques that provide regularly updated grassland and shrubland vegetation layers (Need 4); generation of spatially explicit greater sage-grouse habitat suitability and population models (Need 5); identification of greater sage-grouse seasonal habitats (Need 6); identification of thresholds for the extent of threats, especially conifer expansion, above which greater sage-grouse and other sagebrush-obligate species cannot persist (Need 8); and studies of sagebrush community dynamics as those relate to management and restoration of sagebrush rangelands (Need 9). Needs addressed poorly included: investigations of factors conducive and restrictive to greater sage-grouse movement patterns and population connectivity (Need 1); investigations of livestock and other large ungulate (for example, feral horse) grazing effects on greater sage-grouse populations and habitats (Need 2); identification of thresholds of disturbance (especially renewable energy developments) below which greater sage-grouse and other sagebrush reliant species are not impacted (Need 3); and studies of habitat relationships for sagebrush-reliant species other than greater sage-grouse, songbirds, and small mammals (Need 7). The information provided in this assessment will assist updating the Plan along with other science strategies.

western United States↗

USGS2025

Future forest conditions under alternative management and hydrological scenarios in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain

Context Floodplain forests are being transformed by multiple pressures, prompting widespread management and restoration efforts. It is uncertain how disturbances, including hydrologic change, and management actions will interact to influence the ecology of these threatened forests. Objectives This study examined the effects of alternative management and hydrologic regimes on forest succession at an Upper Mississippi River floodplain site with a restoration project in planning. Methods We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest succession for 100 years under four hydrogeomorphic management scenarios, three forest management scenarios, and two scenarios of future hydrologic conditions. We evaluated changes in forest biomass and composition over time and assessed the relative importance of management actions and hydrologic change on succession. Results Forest aboveground biomass decreased in all management-hydrology scenarios, especially in the wetter hydrological scenario. Intensified hydrogeomorphic and forest management scenarios reduced the magnitude and extent of biomass declines; however, they were unable to prevent overall declines in biomass or cause large shifts in tree species composition. Silver maple ( Acer saccharinum ) was projected to decrease in biomass, while increases in biomass were projected for several late-successional species including swamp white oak ( Quercus bicolor ). Among the factors influencing variation in biomass, forest management had the largest influence in the first 50 years of our simulations, but hydrological regime became the most important factor by the end of the century. Conclusions Our simulations indicate that management actions could play an important role in the conservation of floodplain forests, but their effectiveness will likely be limited if recent upward trends in flooding conditions in this system continue in the future. Thus, our results highlight both the potential benefits and limitations of management actions in the face of hydrologic change.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions

Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

Applied Geography↗

USGS2026

Spatio-temporal modeling for assessing geoenergy resources: A workflow applied to gas in place variation in coal beds

The ability to estimate spatio-temporal changes in hydrocarbon reservoir properties and energy resources within pore volumes is essential for optimizing production, reservoir management, geologic energy storage, and safety in underground mining operations. In coal seams, predicting remaining methane gas-in-place (GIP) is critical for quantifying producible gas and improving mine safety and productivity through effective ventilation planning. Although such changes are commonly evaluated using physics-based numerical simulation models, these approaches often require extensive data, calibration effort, and time. This study presents a spatio-temporal geostatistical modeling approach that bridges the gap between purely spatial models and full numerical simulations. The method is applied to a case study of coal seam degasification in the Mary Lee coal group, Black Warrior Basin, Alabama, USA, to estimate GIP evolution over time within a selected mining district. The analysis uses published data from prior natural gas production history-matching of degasification using vertical wells. Empirical spatial and temporal statistics were calculated for reservoir pressure and water saturation, and spatio-temporal variogram models were fitted to experimental variograms. These models provided the structural basis for spatio-temporal kriging, integrated with spatial estimates of time-invariant parameters (porosity, density, and thickness) to estimate GIP. This approach enabled estimation of GIP changes over time, including periods without data. Boxplots of GIP estimates indicated systematic depletion and decreasing spatial variability, reflecting the impacts of degasification. Comparison with cumulative gas production from empirical well records showed approximately 85% agreement based on a relative similarity metric. Spatio-temporal GIP estimates were also used to estimate methane emissions to longwall ventilation systems and compared with reported emissions from the U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, showing similar distributions (≈80%) given data limitations. Overall, this integrated modeling approach provides time-dependent GIP estimates with broader implications for resource assessment applications.

Alabama↗

USGS2010

Efficient estimators for adaptive stratified sequential sampling

In stratified sampling, methods for the allocation of effort among strata usually rely on some measure of within-stratum variance. If we do not have enough information about these variances, adaptive allocation can be used. In adaptive allocation designs, surveys are conducted in two phases. Information from the first phase is used to allocate the remaining units among the strata in the second phase. Brown et al . [ Adaptive two-stage sequential sampling , Popul. Ecol. 50 (2008), pp. 239–245] introduced an adaptive allocation sampling design – where the final sample size was random – and an unbiased estimator. Here, we derive an unbiased variance estimator for the design, and consider a related design where the final sample size is fixed. Having a fixed final sample size can make survey-planning easier. We introduce a biased Horvitz–Thompson type estimator and a biased sample mean type estimator for the sampling designs. We conduct two simulation studies on honey producers in Kurdistan and synthetic zirconium distribution in a region on the moon. Results show that the introduced estimators are more efficient than the available estimators for both variable and fixed sample size designs, and the conventional unbiased estimator of stratified simple random sampling design. In order to evaluate efficiencies of the introduced designs and their estimator furthermore, we first review some well-known adaptive allocation designs and compare their estimator with the introduced estimators. Simulation results show that the introduced estimators are more efficient than available estimators of these well-known adaptive allocation designs.

Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation↗

USGS2003

The plan to coordinate NEHRP post-earthquake investigations

This is the plan to coordinate domestic and foreign post-earthquake investigations supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). The plan addresses coordination of both the NEHRP agencies—Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), National Science Foundation (NSF), and U. S. Geological Survey (USGS)—and their partners. The plan is a framework for both coordinating what is going to be done and identifying responsibilities for post-earthquake investigations. It does not specify what will be done. Coordination is addressed in various time frames ranging from hours to years after an earthquake. The plan includes measures for (1) gaining rapid and general agreement on high-priority research opportunities, and (2) conducting the data gathering and fi eld studies in a coordinated manner. It deals with identifi cation, collection, processing, documentation, archiving, and dissemination of the results of post-earthquake work in a timely manner and easily accessible format.

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