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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources
USGS2005

Significance of stress transfer in time-dependent earthquake probability calculations

A sudden change in stress is seen to modify earthquake rates, but should it also revise earthquake probability? Data used to derive input parameters permits an array of forecasts; so how large a static stress change is require to cause a statistically significant earthquake probability change? To answer that question, effects of parameter and philosophical choices are examined through all phases of sample calculations, Drawing at random from distributions of recurrence-aperiodicity pairs identifies many that recreate long paleoseismic and historic earthquake catalogs. Probability density funtions built from the recurrence-aperiodicity pairs give the range of possible earthquake forecasts under a point process renewal model. Consequences of choices made in stress transfer calculations, such as different slip models, fault rake, dip, and friction are, tracked. For interactions among large faults, calculated peak stress changes may be localized, with most of the receiving fault area changed less than the mean. Thus, to avoid overstating probability change on segments, stress change values should be drawn from a distribution reflecting the spatial pattern rather than using the segment mean. Disparity resulting from interaction probability methodology is also examined. For a fault with a well-understood earthquake history, a minimum stress change to stressing rate ratio of 10:1 to 20:1 is required to significantly skew probabilities with >80-85% confidence. That ratio must be closer to 50:1 to exceed 90-95% confidence levels. Thus revision to earthquake probability is achievable when a perturbing event is very close to the fault in question or the tectonic stressing rate is low.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2000

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model; user guide to the observation, sensitivity, and parameter-estimation processes and three post-processing programs

This report documents the Observation, Sensitivity, and Parameter-Estimation Processes of the ground-water modeling computer program MODFLOW-2000. The Observation Process generates model-calculated values for comparison with measured, or observed, quantities. A variety of statistics is calculated to quantify this comparison, including a weighted least-squares objective function. In addition, a number of files are produced that can be used to compare the values graphically. The Sensitivity Process calculates the sensitivity of hydraulic heads throughout the model with respect to specified parameters using the accurate sensitivity-equation method. These are called grid sensitivities. If the Observation Process is active, it uses the grid sensitivities to calculate sensitivities for the simulated values associated with the observations. These are called observation sensitivities. Observation sensitivities are used to calculate a number of statistics that can be used (1) to diagnose inadequate data, (2) to identify parameters that probably cannot be estimated by regression using the available observations, and (3) to evaluate the utility of proposed new data. The Parameter-Estimation Process uses a modified Gauss-Newton method to adjust values of user-selected input parameters in an iterative procedure to minimize the value of the weighted least-squares objective function. Statistics produced by the Parameter-Estimation Process can be used to evaluate estimated parameter values; statistics produced by the Observation Process and post-processing program RESAN-2000 can be used to evaluate how accurately the model represents the actual processes; statistics produced by post-processing program YCINT-2000 can be used to quantify the uncertainty of model simulated values. Parameters are defined in the Ground-Water Flow Process input files and can be used to calculate most model inputs, such as: for explicitly defined model layers, horizontal hydraulic conductivity, horizontal anisotropy, vertical hydraulic conductivity or vertical anisotropy, specific storage, and specific yield; and, for implicitly represented layers, vertical hydraulic conductivity. In addition, parameters can be defined to calculate the hydraulic conductance of the River, General-Head Boundary, and Drain Packages; areal recharge rates of the Recharge Package; maximum evapotranspiration of the Evapotranspiration Package; pumpage or the rate of flow at defined-flux boundaries of the Well Package; and the hydraulic head at constant-head boundaries. The spatial variation of model inputs produced using defined parameters is very flexible, including interpolated distributions that require the summation of contributions from different parameters. Observations can include measured hydraulic heads or temporal changes in hydraulic heads, measured gains and losses along head-dependent boundaries (such as streams), flows through constant-head boundaries, and advective transport through the system, which generally would be inferred from measured concentrations. MODFLOW-2000 is intended for use on any computer operating system. The program consists of algorithms programmed in Fortran 90, which efficiently performs numerical calculations and is fully compatible with the newer Fortran 95. The code is easily modified to be compatible with FORTRAN 77. Coordination for multiple processors is accommodated using Message Passing Interface (MPI) commands. The program is designed in a modular fashion that is intended to support inclusion of new capabilities.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2000

A decision support system for prioritizing forested wetland restoration in the Yazoo Backwater Area, Mississippi

A working prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed for the Yazoo Backwater Area, Mississippi, to help planners and managers prioritize, plan, conduct, and optimize forested wetland restoration activities. The DSS comprises geographic information system (GIS) spatial data themes, application programs that provide a cumulative analysis of the relative ability of sites to function as wetlands, and output data that are specific to a given restoration analysis scenario. The DSS input includes GIS data themes such as geomorphology, soils, land use, elevation, farmed wetlands, flood frequency, topographic depressions, streams, public lands, roads, and permanent water bodies, which can be used as spatial templates to define areal hydrologic settings. These GIS data themes can then be ranked and combined to estimate the relative suitability of a potential wetland restoration site, thereby, determining relative wetland equivalence on the landscape. The GIS applications used in this DSS perform the following three functions: assess the ecology (the Eco-Assessor); reclassify land-use in areas selected for restoration (the Tree-Translator); and generate output data to compare restoration scenarios (the Parameter-Generator). Areas selected for reforestation are translated (in the GIS) into ?forested? land use, and the tree species that are ?planted? on the landscape (in the DSS) either compose an ecologically optimal or an economically optimal community of tree species. Output from the DSS can be compared and analyzed by using economic, statistical, graphical, and tabular methods. Output data for seven selected scenarios were generated for the Yazoo Backwater Area and are presented as examples to illustrate the flexibility of the DSS to identify areas that meet restoration objectives.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2013

Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

Michigan;Minnesota;Wisconsin↗
USGS1995

Land-cover sampling designs, data-collection procedures, and land-cover data for the Central Nebraska Basins, 1993-94

Within the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program, land-cover data are used in characterizing drainage areas upstream from surface-water sampling sites and areas selected for spatially distributed ground-water sampling. During the period of time when the initial 20 NAWQA study study-unit investigations were evaluating existing land-cover data, a Prototype 190 Conterminous U.S. land Cover Characteristics Data Set was produced by the Survey's EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. As part of the Central Nebraska Basins (CNB) study-unit investigation, a method was developed to estimate the areal extent of the principal land-cover types within selected seasonally distinct land-cover (SDLC) regions defined in the 1990 prototype data set. This report describes the sampling designs and methods used to collect land-cover data in the CNB study unit. Data collected at 309 sampling sites during the summers of 1993 and 1994 are presented and statistically summarized. Eleven land-cover categories were quantified, including major field crops and broad noncropland cover types.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2026

Hydrologic variability drives environmental and geospatial relationships in Smallmouth Bass (Micropterus dolomieu) distribution

Hydrologic variation is a primary driver of stream ecosystems. Changing hydrology can lead to assemblage shifts and alterations in suitable habitat for freshwater species. As climate change is predicted to alter flow patterns in addition to increasing water temperatures, insight into relationships between species occupancy, hydrology, and temperature is critical for understanding current and future distributions. We examined how hydrologic variability, temperature, and other environmental variables interact to influence Micropterus dolomieu (Smallmouth Bass) occurrence. We used Spatial Stream Network models, allowing for the incorporation of spatial autocorrelation along streams' unique dendritic network, to examine Smallmouth Bass occupancy across a range of hydrologic variation in the Ozark-Ouachita Interior Highlands, USA. Hydrologic variation was the main driver of Smallmouth Bass occurrence, with occurrence more likely in groundwater streams with low hydrologic variation and high flow permanence. For groundwater streams, occurrence was positively associated with summer stream temperature and negatively associated with annual stream temperature. As variation increased, more variables showed significant relationships with occurrence. Distance metrics were important for all models, however as hydrologic disturbance increased, flow connected distance played a lesser role and stream distance played a greater role. Hydrologic variability was the overarching determinant of Smallmouth Bass occurrence and strongly influenced the predictive importance of environmental variables and geospatial relationships. Greater hydrologic variability resulted in stronger statistical relationships between occurrence and environmental variables and an increased importance of system connectivity. As climate change alters hydrologic processes and streams become more variable, understanding and accounting for these shifting relationships is essential.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗
USGS2013

Effects of surface applications of biosolids on groundwater quality and trace-element concentrations in crops near Deer Trail, Colorado, 2004-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Metro Wastewater Reclamation District (Metro District), studied biosolids composition and the effects of biosolids applications on groundwater quality and trace-element concentrations in crops of the Metro District properties near Deer Trail, Colorado, during 2004 through 2010. Priority parameters for each monitoring component included the nine trace elements regulated by Colorado for biosolids (arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, molybdenum, nickel, selenium, and zinc); other constituents also were analyzed. All concentrations for the priority parameters in monthly biosolids samples were less than Colorado regulatory limits, and the concentrations were relatively consistent. Biosolids likely were the largest source of nitrogen and phosphorus on the Metro District properties. Plutonium isotopes were not detected in the biosolids, but many organic wastewater compounds (organic wastewater compounds: wastewater indicators, pharmaceuticals, and hormones) were detected in substantial concentrations relative to minimum reporting levels and various surface-water concentrations. Bismuth, copper, mercury, nitrogen, phosphorus, silver, biogenic sterols, detergent degradates, disinfectants, fire retardants, fragrances, pharmaceuticals, and plasticizers would be the most likely biosolids signature to indicate the presence of Metro District biosolids in soil or streambed sediment from the study area. Antimony, cadmium, cobalt, copper, molybdenum, nickel, nitrogen, phosphorus, selenium, tungsten, vanadium, zinc, detergent degradates, disinfectants, fire retardants, fragrances, pharmaceuticals or their degradates, and plasticizers would be the most likely biosolids signature for groundwater and surface water in the study area. More biosolids-signature components detected and larger concentration differences from untreated materials, baseline, and blank samples indicate more evidence of biosolids presence or effects. Although the inorganic constituent concentrations were relatively large in samples from one monitoring well, the concentrations of organic wastewater compounds in groundwater samples were not correspondingly large. Concentrations of organic wastewater compounds in the groundwater samples from all five monitoring wells were less than the minimum reporting levels with only a few detections. Some of the organic wastewater compounds detected could have anthropogenic sources that are not biosolids. Concentrations of priority parameters in groundwater varied spatially and temporally but generally were less than Colorado regulatory limits. Concentrations of dissolved nitrate, arsenic, and selenium, in addition to chloride, sulfate, total dissolved solids, boron, iron, manganese, and uranium, in samples from some wells exceeded the Colorado standards. Concentrations of dissolved nitrate (three wells), molybdenum (one well), selenium (two wells), and uranium (one well) in shallow groundwater had significant (alpha = 0.05) upward trends in some parts of the study area. The biosolids-signature results indicate that the aquifers intercepted by the five routinely sampled wells likely have received some recharge through treated (biosolids-applied) fields or biosolids-affected ponds. Adverse effects from this biosolids-related recharge range from few (if any) at one well to large and significantly (alpha = 0.05) increasing nitrate concentrations at another well. A statistical evaluation of five paired wheat-grain samples from treated (biosolids-applied) fields and untreated (control) fields did not indicate any evidence that biosolids applications significantly (alpha = 0.05 or 0.10) increased concentration of any of these constituents in wheat grain. The wheat-grain concentrations from this study were similar to those from other studies for fields in North America where no biosolids were applied. The data for the limited crop samples indicate that biosolids applications are not increasing the concentrations of arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, molybdenum, nickel, selenium, sulfur, and zinc in mature wheat grain from the study area.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

Groundwater-level elevations in the bedrock aquifers of the Denver Basin aquifer system, Elbert County, Colorado, 2015–23

Water users in Elbert County, Colorado, rely on groundwater from bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system (upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) for approximately half of their water uses. Withdrawals from the bedrocks aquifers have increased to meet the water use needs of expanding regional population growth and development. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Elbert County Board of County Commissioners, began a study in 2015 to monitor groundwater levels within Elbert County. The primary purpose of this report is to present a summary of groundwater levels measured during the study period (2015–23) and present results from statistical analyses of changes in groundwater-level elevations through time. Discrete groundwater levels were measured at 36 wells within Elbert County. Seven of those wells contained equipment to make and record continuous groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals. All aquifers, except the lower Dawson aquifer, had only declining groundwater-level elevations in discrete measurements for wells with statistically significant trends. Of the eight statistically significant trends in the lower Dawson aquifer, two wells indicated increasing groundwater-level elevation from discrete measurements. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers were −0.23, −0.66, −0.64, −0.39, and −0.63 feet per year, respectively, for discrete groundwater-level elevation measurements. Trends in continuous groundwater-level elevations were in agreement with statistically significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations for all wells. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in this study, compared to the overall trends in a 2015−2018 study, both indicated declining groundwater-level elevations except in the upper Dawson aquifer, where the trend direction was opposite, a positive trend from 2015 to 2018 and a negative trend (declining groundwater elevations) from 2015 to 2023. The change in trends within the upper Dawson aquifer may be affected by differences in the study period and the trend analysis applied. Trends during the 2015–23 study period were compared to departures from the median 2015 groundwater-level elevation for each site in each aquifer. In general, the departures from the 2015 median supported trends observed at each site and correlated spatially with greater departures near the western border of Elbert County. Additionally, 30-year precipitation data showing wet and dry periods were overlaid with the departure from the 2015 median to assess groundwater-level patterns in wells in the five aquifers. Departures from the 2015 median groundwater-level elevations appeared greatest during the dry period between 2020 and 2023. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper and lower Dawson aquifers created from static April 2023 groundwater elevations indicated groundwater-flow direction is generally from the south to the north. Results of this study could be used to guide additional groundwater monitoring in Elbert County and could aid in long-term planning of water resources.

Colorado↗
USGS2001

Using resampling to assess reliability of audio-visual survey strategies for marbled murrelets at inland forest sites

Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) are threatened seabirds that nest in coastal old-growth coniferous forests throughout much of their breeding range. Currently, observer-based audio-visual surveys are conducted at inland forest sites during the breeding season primarily to determine nesting distribution and breeding status and are being used to estimate temporal or spatial trends in murrelet detections. Our goal was to assess the feasibility of using audio-visual survey data for such monitoring. We used an intensive field-based survey effort to record daily murrelet detections at seven survey stations in the Oregon Coast Range. We then used computer-aided resampling techniques to assess the effectiveness of twelve survey strategies with varying scheduling and a sampling intensity of 4-14 surveys per breeding season to estimate known means and SDs of murrelet detections. Most survey strategies we tested failed to provide estimates of detection means and SDs that were within A?20% of actual means and SDs. Estimates of daily detections were, however, frequently estimated to within A?50% of field data with sampling efforts of 14 days/breeding season. Additional resampling analyses with statistically generated detection data indicated that the temporal variability in detection data had a great effect on the reliability of the mean and SD estimates calculated from the twelve survey strategies, while the value of the mean had little effect. Effectiveness at estimating multi-year trends in detection data was similarly poor, indicating that audio-visual surveys might be reliably used to estimate annual declines in murrelet detections of the order of 50% per year.

Waterbirds↗
USGS2022

Data-driven prospectivity modelling of sediment-hosted Zn-Pb mineral systems and their critical raw materials

Demand for critical raw materials is expected to accelerate over the next few decades due to continued population growth and the shifting consumption patterns of the global economy. Sedimentary basins are important sources for critical raw materials and new discoveries of sediment–hosted Mississippi Valley–type (MVT) and/or clastic–dominated (CD) Zn–Pb deposits are likely required to mitigate future supply chain disruptions for Zn, Pb, Ag, Cd, Ga, Ge, Sb, and In. Herein we integrate public geoscience datasets using a discrete global grid to system to model the mineral potential for MVT and CD deposits across Canada, the United States of America, and Australia. Statistical analysis of the model results demonstrates that surface–wave tomography and derivative products from satellite gravity datasets can be used to map the most favourable paleo–tectonic settings of MVT and CD deposits inboard of orogenic belts and at the rifted edges of cratonic lithosphere, respectively. Basin development at pre–existing crustal boundaries was likely important for maintaining the low geothermal–gradients that are favourable for metal transport and generating the crustal fluid pathways that were reactivated during ore–formation, as suggested by the statistical association of both sediment–hosted mineral deposit types with the edges of upward–continued gravity and long–wavelength magnetic anomalies. Multivariate statistical analysis demonstrates that the most prospective combination of these geophysical datasets varies for each geological region and deposit type. We further demonstrate that maximum and minimum geological ages, coupled with Phanerozoic paleogeographic reconstructions, represent mappable proxies for the availability of oxidized, brine–generating regions that are the most likely source of ore–forming fluids (e.g., low– to mid–latitude carbonate platforms and evaporites). Ore deposition was likely controlled by interaction between oxidized, low–temperature brines and sulfidic and/or carbonaceous rocks, which, in some cases, can be mapped at the exposed surface or identified using the available rock descriptions. Baseline weights–of–evidence models are based on regional geophysics and are the least impacted by missing surface information but yield relatively poor results, as demonstrated by the low area–under–the–curve (AUC) for the spatially independent test set on the success–rate plot (AUC = 0.787 for MVT and AUC = 0.870 for CD). Model performance can be improved by: (1) using advanced methods that were trained and validated during a series of semi–automated machine learning competitions; and/or (2) incorporating geological and geophysical datasets that are proxies for each component of the mineral system. The best–performing gradient boosting machine models yield higher AUC for the test set (AUC = 0.983 for MVT and AUC = 0.991 for CD) and reduce the search space by >94%. The model results highlight the potential benefits of mapping sediment–hosted mineral systems at continental scale to improve mineral exploration targeting for critical raw materials.

Ore Geology Reviews↗
USGS2022

From drought to deluge: Spatiotemporal variation in migration routing, survival, travel time and floodplain use of an endangered migratory fish

We developed a novel statistical model to relate the daily survival and migration dynamics of an endangered anadromous fish to river flow and water temperature during both extreme drought and severe flooding in an intensively managed river system. Our Bayesian temporally stratified multistate mark recapture model integrates over unobserved travel times and route transitions to efficiently estimate covariate relationships and includes an adjustment for telemetry tag battery failure. We applied the model to acoustic-tagged juvenile Sacramento river winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and found that survival decreased with decreasing river flows and increased water temperatures. We found that fish were likely to enter at a large floodplain during flood conditions and that survival in floodplain was comparable to the mainstem Sacramento river. Our study demonstrates the response of an endangered anadromous fish population to extreme spatial and temporal variability in habitat accessibility and quality. The general model framework we introduce here can be applied to telemetry of migratory fish through systems with multiple routes to efficiently estimate spatiotemporal variation in survival, travel time, and routing.

California↗
USGS2022

Estimating abundance, temporary emigration and the pattern of density dependence in a cyclic snowshoe hare population in Yukon, Canada

Estimates of demographic parameters based on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods may be biased when some individuals in the population are temporarily unavailable for capture (temporary emigration). We estimated snowshoe hare abundance, apparent survival, and probability of temporary emigration in a population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben 1777) in the Yukon using Pollock’s robust design CMR model, and population density using spatially-explicit CMR models. Survival rates strongly varied among cyclic phases, seasons, and across five population cycles. We found strong evidence that temporary emigration was Markovian (i.e., non-random), suggesting that it varied among individuals that were temporary emigrant in the previous sampling period and those that were present in the sampled area. The probability of temporary emigration for individuals that were in the study area during the previous sampling occasion (γ´´) varied among cycles. Probability that individuals that were temporarily absent from the sampled area would remain temporary emigrants (γ´) showed strongly seasonal pattern, low in winter and high during summers. Snowshoe hare population density ranged from 0.017 (0.015–0.05) hares/ha to 4.43 (3.90–5.00) hares/ha and large-scale cyclical fluctuation. Autocorrelation functions and autoregressive analyses revealed that our study population exhibited statistically significant cyclic fluctuations, with a periodicity of 9-10 years.

Yukon↗
USGS2019

Balancing sampling intensity against spatial coverage for a community science monitoring programme

Community science is an increasingly integral part of biodiversity research and monitoring, often achieving broad spatial and temporal coverage but lower sampling intensity than studies conducted by professional scientists. When designing a community‐science monitoring programme, careful assessment of sampling designs that could be both feasible and successful at meeting programme goals is essential. Monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus ) are the focus of several successful community‐science projects in the U.S., but broader coverage is needed to monitor breeding areas and explain population declines observed in overwintering areas. The U.S. Monarch Conservation Science Partnership's Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program (IMMP) will representatively monitor monarchs and milkweed across North America. We performed a simulation‐based power analysis to predict trade‐offs between sampling breadth (number of sites and years) and sampling intensity (number of visits or subplots per site and year) for the IMMP. We evaluated whether each sampling design would produce sufficient statistical power to detect population trends and differences among land‐use sectors in densities of milkweed, monarch eggs, and adult monarchs. Sampling breadth had much stronger effects than sampling intensity on statistical power for all three monitoring targets. Depending on land‐use sector, monitoring 400–800 sites over 10–15 years would detect trends in densities of milkweed and adult monarchs, but no scenarios were successful for monarch eggs. Sampling 400–800 sites would also detect small (for adult monarchs) to large (for milkweed) differences among land‐use sectors in density of all three monitoring targets within the first 2–5 years. As more data become available from the IMMP, the sampling goals can be updated. Synthesis and applications . Careful sample design is an essential step in developing a successful monitoring programme. For monarchs and milkweed, we found that sampling breadth (number of sites and years) had a much stronger effect on statistical power than sampling intensity (number of visits or subsamples per site), suggesting field protocols could be tailored to maximize recruitment and retention of volunteers by minimizing the effort required to monitor each site. Many long‐term monitoring programmes might similarly benefit from evaluating the statistical trade‐offs between sampling breadth and intensity in their sampling designs.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2009

Spatial and seasonal variations in mercury methylation and microbial community structure in a historic mercury mining area, Yolo County, California

The relationships between soil parent lithology, nutrient concentrations, microbial biomass and community structure were evaluated in soils from a small watershed impacted by historic Hg mining. Upland and wetland soils, stream sediments and tailings were collected and analyzed for nutrients (DOC, SO 4 = , NO 3 - ), Hg, MeHg, and phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA). Stream sediment was derived from serpentinite, siltstone, volcanic rocks and mineralized serpentine with cinnabar, metacinnabar and other Hg phases. Soils from different parent materials had distinct PLFA biomass and community structures that are related to nutrient concentrations and toxicity effects of trace metals including Hg. The formation of MeHg appears to be most strongly linked to soil moisture, which in turn has a correlative relationship with PLFA biomass in wetland soils. The greatest concentrations of MeHg (> 0.5??ng g - 1 MeHg) were measured in wetland soils and soil with a volcanic parent (9.5-37????g g - 1 Hg). Mercury methylation was associated with sulfate-reducing bacteria, including Desulfobacter sp. and Desulfovibrio sp., although these organisms are not exclusively responsible for Hg methylation. Statistical models of the data demonstrated that soil microbial communities varied more with soil type than with season.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2013

A statistical analysis of the global historical volcanic fatalities record

A new database of volcanic fatalities is presented and analysed, covering the period 1600 to 2010 AD. Data are from four sources: the Smithsonian Institution, Witham (2005), CRED EM-DAT and Munich RE. The data were combined and formatted, with a weighted average fatality figure used where more than one source reports an event; the former two databases were weighted twice as strongly as the latter two. More fatal incidents are contained within our database than similar previous works; approximately 46% of the fatal incidents are listed in only one of the four sources, and fewer than 10% are in all four. 278,880 fatalities are recorded in the database, resultant from 533 fatal incidents. The fatality count is dominated by a handful of disasters, though the majority of fatal incidents have caused fewer than ten fatalities. Number and empirical probability of fatalities are broadly correlated with VEI, but are more strongly influenced by population density around volcanoes and the occurrence and extent of lahars (mudflows) and pyroclastic density currents, which have caused 50% of fatalities. Indonesia, the Philippines, and the West Indies dominate the spatial distribution of fatalities, and there is some negative correlation between regional development and number of fatalities. With the largest disasters removed, over 90% of fatalities occurred between 5 km and 30 km from volcanoes, though the most devastating eruptions impacted far beyond these distances. A new measure, the Volcano Fatality Index, is defined to explore temporal changes in societal vulnerability to volcanic hazards. The measure incorporates population growth and recording improvements with the fatality data, and shows prima facie evidence that vulnerability to volcanic hazards has fallen during the last two centuries. Results and interpretations are limited in scope by the underlying fatalities data, which are affected by under-recording, uncertainty, and bias. Attempts have been made to estimate the extent of these issues, and to remove their effects where possible. The data analysed here are provided as supplementary material. An updated version of the Smithsonian fatality database fully integrated with this database will be publicly available in the near future and subsequently incorporate new data.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗
USGS2002

Spatial and temporal distribution of contaminated, effluent-affected sediment on the Palos Verdes margin, southern California

A sedimentary deposit on the continental margin near the Palos Verdes Peninsula, California is comprised of sewage effluent and geologic materials and is contaminated with metals, pesticides (including DDT and associated compounds), and PCBs. The deposit was mapped with subbottom acoustic profilers, and sediment cores were analyzed for geochemical and physical properties to determine the volume of the deposit and the distribution and mass of contaminants. Mapping showed that the deposit ranges up to 60-cm thick, has a total volume exceeding 9 million m3, and covers over 40 km2. Virtually the entire effluent-affected deposit is contaminated with DDT and PCBs. Nearly half of the area of the deposit lies on the continental slope, but 70-75% of the volume of the deposit and total mass of DDT reside on the continental shelf. Analysis of data collected biennially since 1981 by the Sanitation Districts of Los Angeles County show that the mass of DDT has apparently decreased at some stations but has remained essentially constant at others. Temporal changes m mass per unit area of DDT are not statistically significant (at the 90% confidence level) at the most contaminated locations over a 16-yr period. The results of this mapping effort were used as a basis for modeling efforts described elsewhere in this issue.

California↗
USGS2000

Kelp forest fish populations in marine reserves and adjacent exploited areas of central California

Population structure (density and size distribution) of 10 species of epibenthic kelp forest fishes was compared between three marine reserves and adjacent exploited areas in central California. We also contrasted substrate relief, algal turf cover, and kelp population density among these areas. Densities of fishes were 12–35% greater within the reserves, but this difference was not statistically significant. Habitat features explained only 4% of the variation in fish density and did not vary consistently between reserves and nonreserves. The average length of rockfish (genus Sebastes ) was significantly greater in two of the three reserve sites, as was the proportion of larger fish. Population density and size differences combined to produce substantially greater biomass and, therefore, greater reproductive potential per unit of area within the reserves. The magnitude of these effects seems to be influenced by the reserve's age. Our findings demonstrate that current levels of fishing pressure influence kelp forest rockfish populations and suggest that this effect is widespread in central California. Existing marine reserves in central California kelp forests may help sustain exploited populations both through adult emigration and larval pool augmentation. The magnitude of these effects remains uncertain, however, because the spatial scale of both larval and adult dispersal relative to the size of existing reserves is unknown.

California↗
USGS2011

Variation in local abundance and species richness of stream fishes in relation to dispersal barriers: Implications for management and conservation

1.Barriers to immigration, all else being equal, should in principle depress local abundance and reduce local species richness. These issues are particularly relevant to stream-dwelling species when improperly designed road crossings act as barriers to migration with potential impacts on the viability of upstream populations. However, because abundance and richness are highly spatially and temporally heterogeneous and the relative importance of immigration on demography is uncertain, population- and community-level effects can be difficult to detect. 2.In this study, we tested the effects of potential barriers to upstream movements on the local abundance and species richness of a diverse assemblage of resident stream fishes in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia, U.S.A. Fishes were sampled using simple standard techniques above- and below road crossings that were either likely or unlikely to be barriers to upstream fish movements (based on physical dimensions of the crossing). We predicted that abundance of resident fishes would be lower in the upstream sections of streams with predicted impassable barriers, that the strength of the effect would vary among species and that variable effects on abundance would translate into lower species richness. 3.Supporting these predictions, the statistical model that best accounted for variation in abundance and species richness included a significant interaction between location (upstream or downstream of crossing) and type (passable or impassable crossing). Stream sections located above predicated impassable culverts had fewer than half the number of species and less than half the total fish abundance, while stream sections above and below passable culverts had essentially equivalent richness and abundance. 4.Our results are consistent with the importance of immigration and population connectivity to local abundance and species richness of stream fishes. In turn, these results suggest that when measured at appropriate scales (multiple streams within catchments), with simple protocols amenable to use by management agencies, differences in local abundance and species richness may serve as indicators of the extent to which road crossings are barriers to fish movement and help determine whether road-crossing improvements have restored connectivity to stream fish populations and communities. Published 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Freshwater Biology↗