USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Science Advances”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,109 records · Page 62Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Surficial sediment character of the New York-New Jersey offshore continental shelf region: A GIS compilation

Broad continental shelf regions such as the New York Bight are the product of a complex geologic history and dynamic oceanographic processes, dominated by the Holocene marine transgression (>100 m sea-level rise) following the end of the last Pleistocene ice advance ~ 20,000 years ago. The area of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (U.S. EEZ) territory, extending 200 nautical miles seaward from the coast, is larger than the continental U.S. and contains submerged landforms that provide a variety of natural functions and societal benefits, such as: critical habitats for fisheries, ship navigation and homeland security, and engineering activities (i.e. oil and gas platforms, pipeline and cable routes, potential wind-energy-generation sites). Some parts of the continental margins, particularly inner-continental shelf regions, also contain unconsolidated hard-mineral deposits such as sand and gravel that are regarded as potential aggregate resources to meet or augment needs not met by onshore deposits (Williams, 1992). The present distribution of surficial sediment off the northeastern United States is shaped from the deposits left by the last glaciation and reflects the cumulative effects of sediment erosion, transport, sorting, and deposition by storm and tidal processes during the Holocene rise in sea level. As a result, the sediments on the sea floor represent both an historical record of former conditions and a guide to possible future sedimentary environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) through the Coastal and Marine Geology Program, in cooperation with the University of Colorado and other partners, has compiled extant sediment character and textural data as well as other geologic information on the sea floor from all regions around the U.S. into the usSEABED data system (Reid and others, 2005; Buczkowski and others, 2006; Reid and others, 2006). The usSEABED system, which contains information on sediment grain size and lithology for more than 340,500 stations within the U.S. EEZ. has been developed and populated with data as part of the USGS Marine Aggregate Resources and Processes and the National Benthic Habitats projects in order to provide the base-line data needed to update the current maps of offshore surficial geologic character and sediment distribution. The maps are also used to characterize benthic sea floor environments important for marine ecosystems. U.S. Geological Survey, Data Series 118 (Reid and others, 2005), of the usSEABED data release series, represents the combined efforts of the USGS and several other government agencies to provide a unified resource for accessing and preserving records of U.S. east coast sea floor geologic information and sediment texture data. For this present report, we have chosen to focus on the New York-New Jersey region, an area that has been intensely studied by the USGS for many years to address many complex issues. This report illustrates the uses of the usSEABED database for GIS applications, while offering additional insight into the resources and data available from the USGS and its collaborative institutions. This report is based on data contained in U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 118 (Reid and others, 2005) and shows an assortment of example GIS products that are possible using usSEABED. All data are intended to be GIS-ready and should not require any additional cleanup, formatting, or renaming of fields in order to use the data in a Geographic Information System. This project employs the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcView™ software. Many of these maps were made as part of the ongoing USGS study to assess marine aggregate resources offshore New York and New Jersey, but these maps can serve many other purposes. The marine science community, educators, students and others are encouraged to use these data to generate GIS products for their own purposes. The objectives of the Marine Aggregate Resources and Processes project are to produce a series of new geologic maps and reports of the sea floor that will provide scientific insights into the character and geologic development of U.S. continental margins and to use these maps and information to assess the potential availability of offshore sand and gravel resources. The mapping and aggregate resource assessments are being conducted on a national scale using the usSEABED data base as described in Williams and others (2003). Potential uses for these data include: (1) defining the geological variability of the sea floor in relation to benthic habitat diversity; (2) improving our understanding of the processes that control the distribution and transport of bottom sediments and benthic habitats; (3) locating aggregate resources for beach nourishment and industrial applications; and (4) providing a detailed geospatial framework for future marine science research, monitoring, and management activities. The initial assessments are in progress for the New York Bight and Louisiana offshore areas.

New Jersey, New York↗
USGS2014

Ecological risks of shale oil and gas development to wildlife, aquatic resources and their habitats

Technological advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have led to the exploration and exploitation of shale oil and gas both nationally and internationally. Extensive development of shale resources has occurred within the United States over the past decade, yet full build out is not expected to occur for years. Moreover, countries across the globe have large shale resources and are beginning to explore extraction of these resources. Extraction of shale resources is a multistep process that includes site identification, well pad and infrastructure development, well drilling, high-volume hydraulic fracturing and production; each with its own propensity to affect associated ecosystems. Some potential effects, for example from well pad, road and pipeline development, will likely be similar to other anthropogenic activities like conventional gas drilling, land clearing, exurban and agricultural development and surface mining (e.g., habitat fragmentation and sedimentation). Therefore, we can use the large body of literature available on the ecological effects of these activities to estimate potential effects from shale development on nearby ecosystems. However, other effects, such as accidental release of wastewaters, are novel to the shale gas extraction process making it harder to predict potential outcomes. Here, we review current knowledge of the effects of high-volume hydraulic fracturing coupled with horizontal drilling on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the contiguous United States, an area that includes 20 shale plays many of which have experienced extensive development over the past decade. We conclude that species and habitats most at risk are ones where there is an extensive overlap between a species range or habitat type and one of the shale plays (leading to high vulnerability) coupled with intrinsic characteristics such as limited range, small population size, specialized habitat requirements, and high sensitivity to disturbance. Examples include core forest habitat and forest specialists, sagebrush habitat and specialists, vernal pond inhabitants and stream biota. We suggest five general areas of research and monitoring that could aid in development of effective guidelines and policies to minimize negative impacts and protect vulnerable species and ecosystems: (1) spatial analyses, (2) species-based modeling, (3) vulnerability assessments, (4) ecoregional assessments, and (5) threshold and toxicity evaluations.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2018

Opal-A in glassy pumice, acid alteration, and the 1817 phreatomagmatic eruption at Kawah Ijen (Java), Indonesia

At Kawah Ijen (Indonesia), vigorous SO 2 and HCl degassing sustains a hyperacid lake (pH ~0) and intensely alters the subsurface, producing widespread residual silica and advanced argillic alteration products. In 1817, a VEI 2 phreatomagmatic eruption evacuated the lake, depositing a widespread layer of muddy ash fall, and sending lahars down river drainages. We discovered multiple types of opaline silica in juvenile low-silica dacite pumice and in particles within co-erupted laharic sediments. Most spectacular are opal-replaced phenocrysts of plagioclase and pyroxene adjacent to pristine matrix glass and melt inclusions. Opal-bearing pumice has been found at numerous sites, including where post-eruption infiltration of acid water is unlikely. Through detailed analyses of an initial sampling of 1817 eruption products, we find evidence for multiple origins of opaline materials in pumice and laharic sediments. Evidently, magma encountered acid-altered materials in the subsurface and triggered phreatomagmatic eruptions. Syn-eruptive incorporation of opal-alunite clasts, layered opal, and fragment-filled vesicles of opal and glass, all suggest magma-rock interactions in concert with vesiculation, followed by cooling within minutes. Our experiments at magmatic temperature confirm that the opaline materials would show noticeable degradation in time periods longer than a few tens of minutes. Some glassy laharic sedimentary grains are more andesitic than the main pumice type and may represent older volcanic materials that were altered beneath the lake bottom and were forcefully ejected during the 1817 eruption. A post-eruptive origin remains likely for most of the opal-replaced phenocrysts in pumice. Experiments at 25°C and 100°C reveal that when fresh pumice is bathed in Kawah Ijen hyperacid fluid for 6 weeks, plagioclase is replaced without altering either matrix glass or melt inclusions. Moreover, lack of evidence for high-temperature annealing of the opal suggests that post-eruption alteration of pumice is more likely than pre-eruption envelopment of euhedral opal-replaced phenocrysts in dacitic melt. At Ijen and elsewhere, the ascent of magma into hydrous acid-altered mineral assemblages (e.g., opal, kaolinite, alunite) could induce rapid dehydration of hydrous minerals and amorphous materials, generating considerable steam and contributing to magmatic-hydrothermal and phreatomagmatic explosions.

Kawah Ijen↗
USGS2015

Analyzing high resolution topography for advancing the understanding of mass and energy transfer through landscapes: A review

The study of mass and energy transfer across landscapes has recently evolved to comprehensive considerations acknowledging the role of biota and humans as geomorphic agents, as well as the importance of small-scale landscape features. A contributing and supporting factor to this evolution is the emergence over the last two decades of technologies able to acquire high resolution topography (HRT) (meter and sub-meter resolution) data. Landscape features can now be captured at an appropriately fine spatial resolution at which surface processes operate; this has revolutionized the way we study Earth-surface processes. The wealth of information contained in HRT also presents considerable challenges. For example, selection of the most appropriate type of HRT data for a given application is not trivial. No definitive approach exists for identifying and filtering erroneous or unwanted data, yet inappropriate filtering can create artifacts or eliminate/distort critical features. Estimates of errors and uncertainty are often poorly defined and typically fail to represent the spatial heterogeneity of the dataset, which may introduce bias or error for many analyses. For ease of use, gridded products are typically preferred rather than the more information-rich point cloud representations. Thus many users take advantage of only a fraction of the available data, which has furthermore been subjected to a series of operations often not known or investigated by the user. Lastly, standard HRT analysis work-flows are yet to be established for many popular HRT operations, which has contributed to the limited use of point cloud data. In this review, we identify key research questions relevant to the Earth-surface processes community within the theme of mass and energy transfer across landscapes and offer guidance on how to identify the most appropriate topographic data type for the analysis of interest. We describe the operations commonly performed from raw data to raster products and we identify key considerations and suggest appropriate work-flows for each, pointing to useful resources and available tools. Future research directions should stimulate further development of tools that take advantage of the wealth of information contained in the HRT data and address the present and upcoming research needs such as the ability to filter out unwanted data, compute spatially variable estimates of uncertainty and perform multi-scale analyses. While we focus primarily on HRT applications for mass and energy transfer, we envision this review to be relevant beyond the Earth-surface processes community for a much broader range of applications involving the analysis of HRT.

Earth-Science Reviews↗
USGS2020

Using advanced population genomics to better understand the relationship between offshore and spawning habitat use for Atlantic Sturgeon

Atlantic Sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) are a large-bodied anadromous fish that historically supported important fisheries along the east coast of the United States. Following years of overharvest and habitat degradation, populations experienced severe declines. In 2012, the National Marine Fisheries Service listed Atlantic Sturgeon under the Endangered Species Act (ESA; 61 FR 4722). Their listing named five Distinct Population Segments (DPSs), predicated on genetic groups composed of geographically proximate populations. Federal management of Atlantic Sturgeon presents challenges, as sturgeon from each of the five DPSs mix extensively in coastal and marine habitats yet take and recovery progress must be evaluated separately for each unit. Genetic assignment testing based on mitochondrial and microsatellite markers allows individuals to be assigned back to their natal river and DPS. However, this approach is not perfect and some individuals may be incorrectly assigned. Recent advances in genomics offer the potential of a higher resolution approach to genetic assignment testing, and thus may reduce uncertainty associated with assignment testing. In addition, genomics allows a greater number of markers to be examined from across a broader portion of the sturgeon genome, thus may provide an enhanced perspective of population structure for the species, and potentially allow other previously intractable questions to be addressed (Bernatchez et al. 2017, Supple and Shapiro 2018). We used next-generation sequencing to develop a draft genome for Atlantic Sturgeon and identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that could be used to resolve the natal river and DPS of individual Atlantic Sturgeon. We identified 1,210 candidate SNPs within the nuclear genome as well as 49 SNPs within the mitochondrial genome. After filtering and review, we selected 161 nuclear SNPs and 39 mitochondrial SNPs for further testing and evaluation. We used genotyping-in-thousands by sequencing (GT-seq) to simultaneously sequence nuclear SNP loci, mitochondrial SNP loci, and the existing panel of twelve microsatellite loci. This effort required a pilot sequencing run on a single sturgeon sample to test marker amplification and refine primer strengths, followed by a series of sequencing runs to generate baseline data for 288 individuals representing nine populations of Atlantic Sturgeon in four DPSs. Using baseline data from the nine populations, we ran a series of genomic analyses to characterize diversity within and among populations, providing a benchmark for this species using the new SNP markers. Allelic richness was similar for all populations, although there was a general trend of more northern population containing greater levels of allelic richness. Interestingly, we observed linkage disequilibrium among many pairs of loci within many populations. This might be the result of physical linkage but could also suggest these populations are recovering from genetic bottlenecks and/or are effectively small, leading to specific haplotypes to be favored by chance. Pairwise differentiation among populations varied among the populations ( F ST range: 0.010-0.098) and was significantly correlated ( r = 0.771; P < 0.001) to pairwise F ST observed using microsatellite markers). Population clustering and ordination techniques using the new genomic data both support an overall population structure that is similar to the current DPS management units (which were developed primarily based on microsatellite genetic data). Overall, this suggests that existing microsatellite markers and the panel of SNP markers developed in this study provide similar information about the populations structure and ecology of Atlantic Sturgeon. Given the observed differences in allele frequencies among populations, our genomic baseline supports previous assertations that Atlantic Sturgeon show natal homing, despite mixing extensively in marine waters during non-breeding periods. Lower levels of differentiation between populations in the South Atlantic DPS suggest that populations in this region may have greater levels of gene flow relative to their more northerly conspecifics, which has also previously been suggested based on microsatellite data. The observed differentiation among populations provides the necessary foundation for determining the natal river and DPS of Atlantic Sturgeon using assignment testing. We tested the utility of our new genomic baseline for resolving the population and DPS of Atlantic Sturgeon. Our nuclear SNP markers showed utility for identifying the origin of unknown Atlantic Sturgeon samples, as 86.5% were assigned to the correct DPS and 66.3% were assigned to the correct natal river. However, since this study was funded the Conservation Genetics and Genomics Laboratory at Leetown Science Center has made significant improvements to their microsatellite genetic baseline, which now performs more effectively than our new genomic approach (the genetic baseline includes 12 populations and 5 DPSs, and correctly assigns 95.8% of individuals to DPS and 84.9% of individuals to their natal population using 12 microsatellite loci). We conducted an ad hoc exploration of how additional microsatellite or nuclear SNP loci may further improve the accuracy of assignment testing. We found that additional microsatellite markers are likely to result in greater improvements in assignment efficiency than additional nuclear SNPs. However, a much larger number of SNP loci (which if identified could be sequenced using other methods that are now available; e.g., the RAD-capture approach published by Ali et al. 2016) could produce assignment efficiencies that are greater than what is currently feasible using microsatellites. In the absence of further research and development of additional SNP markers for Atlantic Sturgeon (possibly using an approach other than GT-seq), the existing microsatellite loci are the most effective means available to determine the natal river and DPS of Atlantic Sturgeon encountered in offshore waters. Because our new genomic markers were less effective than the existing panel of 12 microsatellite markers, we chose to use the existing microsatellite markers to assign Atlantic Sturgeon captured in another BOEM-funded study (cooperative agreement M16AC00003; Monitoring endangered Atlantic Sturgeon and commercial finfish habitat use offshore New York) following consultation with our project officer. Using this approach, we genotyped and assigned 186 Atlantic Sturgeon captured in coastal waters off the Rockaway Peninsula, New York. The vast majority of these sturgeon were assigned to the New York Bight DPS (94.62%), and most appear to belong to the Hudson River population (87.10%) with smaller contributions from the Delaware River population (7.53%). Smaller contributions (2.15%) were observed from six other populations, including those from the James, York, Kennebec, Ogeechee, and Edisto rivers. Although most of the fish we assigned were assigned to the nearest spawning rivers (Hudson and Delaware), the contributions from distant rivers is consistent with the propensity of this species to move long distances and form mixed stock aggregations along the continental shelf. This finding indicates that spawning populations (and their corresponding DPS) from distant locations may potentially be impacted by offshore activities. In fact, activities in this region of the New York Bight could negatively impact Atlantic Sturgeon population from at least four different DPSs. Genetic or genomic assignment testing remains an essential tool to characterize potential impacts to Atlantic Sturgeon populations and should be applied more broadly to better characterize potential impacts of activities in other locations.

Atlantic Coast↗
USGS2024

Identifying and filling critical knowledge gaps can optimize financial viability of blue carbon projects in tidal wetlands

One of the world’s largest “blue carbon” ecosystems, Louisiana’s tidal wetlands on the US Gulf of Mexico coast, is rapidly being lost. Louisiana’s strong legal, regulatory, and monitoring framework, developed for one of the world’s largest tidal wetland systems, provides an opportunity for a programmatic approach to blue carbon accreditation to support restoration of these ecologically and economically important tidal wetlands. Louisiana’s coastal wetlands span ∼1.4 million ha and accumulate 5.5–7.3 Tg yr −1 of blue carbon (organic carbon), ∼6%–8% of tidal marsh blue carbon accumulation globally. Louisiana has a favorable governance framework to advance blue carbon accreditation, due to centralized restoration planning, long term coastal monitoring, and strong legal and regulatory frameworks around carbon. Additional restoration efforts, planned through Louisiana’s Coastal Master Plan, over 50 years are projected to create, or avoid loss of, up to 81,000 ha of wetland. Current restoration funding, primarily from Deepwater Horizon oil spill settlements, will be fully committed by the early 2030s and additional funding sources are required. Existing accreditation methodologies have not been successfully applied to coastal Louisiana’s ecosystem restoration approaches or herbaceous tidal wetland types. Achieving financial viability for accreditation of these restoration and wetland types will require expanded application of existing blue carbon crediting methodologies. It will also require expanded approaches for predicting the future landscape without restoration, such as numerical modeling, to be validated. Additional methodologies (and/or standards) would have many common elements with those currently available but may be beneficial, depending on the goals and needs of both the state of Louisiana and potential purchasers of Louisiana tidal wetland carbon credits. This study identified twenty targeted needs that will address data and knowledge gaps to maximize financial viability of blue carbon accreditation for Louisiana’s tidal wetlands. Knowledge needs were identified in five categories: legislative and policy, accreditation methodologies and standards, soil carbon flux, methane flux, and lateral carbon flux. Due to the large spatial scale and diversity of tidal wetlands, it is expected that progress in coastal Louisiana has high potential to be generalized to similar wetland ecosystems across the northern Gulf of Mexico and globally.

Louisiana↗
USGS2019

From the oceans to the cloud: Opportunities and challenges for data, models, computation and workflows

Advances in ocean observations and models mean increasing flows of data. Integrating observations between disciplines over spatial scales from regional to global presents challenges. Running ocean models and managing the results is computationally demanding. The rise of cloud computing presents an opportunity to rethink traditional approaches. This includes developing shared data processing workflows utilizing common, adaptable software to handle data ingest and storage, and an associated framework to manage and execute downstream modeling. Working in the cloud presents challenges: migration of legacy technologies and processes, cloud-to-cloud interoperability, and the translation of legislative and bureaucratic requirements for “on-premises” systems to the cloud. To respond to the scientific and societal needs of a fit-for-purpose ocean observing system, and to maximize the benefits of more integrated observing, research on utilizing cloud infrastructures for sharing data and models is underway. Cloud platforms and the services/APIs they provide offer new ways for scientists to observe and predict the ocean’s state. High-performance mass storage of observational data, coupled with on-demand computing to run model simulations in close proximity to the data, tools to manage workflows, and a framework to share and collaborate, enables a more flexible and adaptable observation and prediction computing architecture. Model outputs are stored in the cloud and researchers either download subsets for their interest/area or feed them into their own simulations without leaving the cloud. Expanded storage and computing capabilities make it easier to create, analyze, and distribute products derived from long-term datasets. In this paper, we provide an introduction to cloud computing, describe current uses of the cloud for management and analysis of observational data and model results, and describe workflows for running models and streaming observational data. We discuss topics that must be considered when moving to the cloud: costs, security, and organizational limitations on cloud use. Future uses of the cloud via computational sandboxes and the practicalities and considerations of using the cloud to archive data are explored. We also consider the ways in which the human elements of ocean observations are changing – the rise of a generation of researchers whose observations are likely to be made remotely rather than hands on – and how their expectations and needs drive research towards the cloud. In conclusion, visions of a future where cloud computing is ubiquitous are discussed.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2019

Early-warning signals of individual tree mortality based on annual radial growth

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.

Frontiers in Plant Science↗
USGS2025

Late Quaternary environmental change in eastern Beringia

Eastern Beringia (Alaska and western Yukon) is an extensive, high-latitude region of North America that remained largely unglaciated throughout the Quaternary. Consequently, its sedimentary deposits preserve long-term environmental records that have intrigued scientists for nearly a century. Recent advances in palaeoecological proxies and dating methods have proved critical in addressing long-standing questions about regional late Quaternary environmental change. At the same time, they have led to new and sometimes controversial hypotheses. This review covers recent discoveries and unresolved questions focused on the period 57,000–10,000 calendar years before C.E. 1950 (cal yr BP). The middle Wisconsin interstadial (57,000–30,000 cal yr BP) was a period of relative warmth in eastern Beringia, compared with the late Wisconsin (30,000–14,000 cal yr BP). Early in the interstadial occasional Picea woodland was present amongst widespread shrub tundra. Palaeoecological, sedimentary and isotopic data indicate that climate was cooler and drier than the Holocene, with high rates of aeolian activity. Megafauna typically associated with the ‘mammoth steppe’ ecosystem (woolly mammoth [ Mammuthus primigenius ], horse [ Equus ] and steppe-bison [ Bison priscus ]) were present in some abundance. The transition towards late Wisconsin cold-stage conditions (35,000–30,000 cal yr BP) coincided with the establishment of the Bering Land Bridge and featured expansion of spatially varied, herbaceous vegetation, sometimes associated with deep active layers. Sedimentary DNA ( seda DNA) and macrofossil evidence show vegetation was not a prairie-like grassland, and the term “steppe-tundra” is a better descriptor. Permafrost pore-ice isotopic (δ 18 O) records suggest a step change in one or more climate drivers ca. 30,000 cal yr BP, by which time steppe-tundra was established across eastern Beringia. It remains uncertain whether Picea survived cold-stage conditions within isolated refugia, or whether it recolonized from south of the Laurentide-Cordilleran ice sheets. Genetic data suggest that Picea probably survived in situ ; however, there is no definitive fossil evidence to support this. The end-Pleistocene transition from steppe-tundra to shrub tundra began ca. 15,000 cal yr BP and took place within decades at local scales. The expansion of woody taxa coincided with rising sea levels, reduced sea-ice extent and an abrupt shift in atmospheric circulation that enhanced precipitation. During this time, Earth's orbital configuration caused high early-summer temperatures and strong seasonality, creating growing conditions very different from today. The vegetation consisted of Salix and Betula shrub tundra with open areas of herbs and graminoids. During the deglacial warming trend, the Younger Dryas oscillation (12,800–11,700 cal yr BP) was variably expressed. It is generally evident in records affected by adjacent oceans but can be absent at sites in continental areas. These past conditions and paleoenvironmental changes have implications for contemporary issues: hypotheses about Pleistocene mammalian extinction; sensitivity of eastern Beringia to major oceanic reorganizations and high-frequency climate variability; the nature of woody plant expansion with climate warming; grazing, hydroclimate and fire as controls over ecosystems; the efficacy of “Pleistocene rewilding” for carbon capture.

Beringia↗
USGS2016

Estimating black bear density in New Mexico using noninvasive genetic sampling coupled with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods

During the 2004–2005 to 2015–2016 hunting seasons, the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish (NMDGF) estimated black bear abundance (Ursus americanus) across the state by coupling density estimates with the distribution of primary habitat generated by Costello et al. (2001). These estimates have been used to set harvest limits. For example, a density of 17 bears/100 km2 for the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains and 13.2 bears/100 km2 for the Sandia Mountains were used to set harvest levels. The advancement and widespread acceptance of non-invasive sampling and mark-recapture methods, prompted the NMDGF to collaborate with the New Mexico Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit and New Mexico State University to update their density estimates for black bear populations in select mountain ranges across the state. We established 5 study areas in 3 mountain ranges: the northern (NSC; sampled in 2012) and southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains (SSC; sampled in 2013), the Sandia Mountains (Sandias; sampled in 2014), and the northern (NSacs) and southern Sacramento Mountains (SSacs; both sampled in 2014). We collected hair samples from black bears using two concurrent non-invasive sampling methods, hair traps and bear rubs. We used a gender marker and a suite of microsatellite loci to determine the individual identification of hair samples that were suitable for genetic analysis. We used these data to generate mark-recapture encounter histories for each bear and estimated density in a spatially explicit capture-recapture framework (SECR). We constructed a suite of SECR candidate models using sex, elevation, land cover type, and time to model heterogeneity in detection probability and the spatial scale over which detection probability declines. We used Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc) to rank and select the most supported model from which we estimated density. We set 554 hair traps, 117 bear rubs and collected 4,083 hair samples. We identified 725 (367 M, 358 F) individuals; the sex ratio for each study area was approximately equal. Our density estimates varied within and among mountain ranges with an estimated density of 21.86 bears/100 km2 (95% CI: 17.83 – 26.80) for the NSC, 19.74 bears/100 km2 (95% CI: 13.77 – 28.30) in the SSC, 25.75 bears/100 km2 (95% CI: 13.22 – 50.14) in the Sandias, 21.86 bears/100 km2 (95% CI: 17.83 – 26.80) in the NSacs, and 16.55 bears/100 km2 (95% CI: 11.64 – 23.53) in the SSacs. Overall detection probability for hair traps and bear rubs, combined, was low across all study areas and ranged from 0.00001 to 0.02. We speculate that detection probabilities were affected by failure of some hair samples to produce a complete genotype due to UV degradation of DNA, and our inability to set and check some sampling devices due to wildfires in the SSC. Ultraviolet radiation levels are particularly high in New Mexico compared to other states where NGS methods have been used because New Mexico receives substantial amounts of sunshine, is relatively high in elevation (1,200 m – 4,000 m), and is at a lower latitude. Despite these sampling difficulties, we were able to produce density estimates for New Mexico black bear populations with levels of precision comparable to estimated black bear densities made elsewhere in the U.S. Our ability to generate reliable black bear density estimates for 3 New Mexico mountain ranges is attributable to our use of a statistically robust study design and analytical method. There are multiple factors that need to be considered when developing future SECR-based density estimation projects. First, the spatial extent of the population of interest and the smallest average home range size must be determined; these will dictate size of the trapping array and spacing necessary between hair traps. The number of technicians needed and access to the study areas will also influence configuration of the trapping array. We believe shorter sampling occasions could be implemented to reduce degradation of DNA due to UV radiation; this might help increase amplification rates and thereby increase both the number of unique individuals identified and the number of recaptures, improving the precision of the density estimates. A pilot study may be useful to determine the length of time hair samples can remain in the field prior to collection. In addition, researchers may consider setting hair traps and bear rubs in more shaded areas (e.g., north facing slopes) to help reduce exposure to UV radiation. To reduce the sampling interval it will be necessary to either hire more field personnel or decrease the number of hair traps per sampling session. Both of these will enhance detection of long-range movement events by individual bears, increase initial capture and recapture rates, and improve precision of the parameter estimates. We recognize that all studies are constrained by limited resources, however, increasing field personnel would also allow a larger study area to be sampled or enable higher trap density. In conclusion, we estimated the density of black bears in 5 study areas within 3 mountains ranges of New Mexico. Our estimates will aid the NMDGF in setting sustainable harvest limits. Along with estimates of density, information on additional demographic rates (e.g., survival rates and reproduction) and the potential effects that climate change and future land use may have on the demography of black bears may also help inform management of black bears in New Mexico, and may be considered as future areas for research.

New Mexico↗
USGS2020

The Missoula and Bonneville floods—A review of ice-age megafloods in the Columbia River basin

The Channeled Scabland of eastern Washington State, USA, brought megafloods to the scientific forefront. A 30,000-km2 landscape of coulees and cataracts carved into the region’s loess-covered basalt attests to overwhelming volumes of energetic water. The scarred landscape, garnished by huge boulder bars and far-travelled ice-rafted erratics, spurred J Harlen Bretz’s vigorously disputed flood hypothesis in the 1920s. First known as the Spokane flood, it was rebranded the Missoula flood once understood that the water came from glacial Lake Missoula, formed when the Purcell Trench lobe of the last-glacial Cordilleran ice sheet dammed the Clark Fork valley in northwestern Idaho with ice a kilometer thick. Bretz’s flood evidence in the once-remote Channeled Scabland, widely seen and elaborated by the 1950s, eventually swayed consensus for cataclysmic flooding. Missoula flood questions then turned to some that continue today: how many? when? how big? what routes? what processes? The Missoula floods passed through eastern Washington by a multitude of valleys, coulees and scabland tracts, some contemporaneously, some sequentially. Which routings and their timing depended on the positions of various lobes of the multi-pronged Cordilleran ice sheet and the erosional development of the channels themselves. The first floods mostly followed the big bend of Columbia valley looping through north-central Washington. But the south-advancing Okanogan ice lobe soon blocked that path, forming long-lasting glacial Lake Columbia in the impounded Columbia valley. Missoula floods into this lake were diverted south out of the Columbia valley and into eastern Washington coulees and scabland tracts. At least four floods entered Moses Coulee, but then as the Okanogan lobe advanced over and blocked the head of that coulee, more eastern paths took the water, including Grand Coulee and the Telford-Crab-Creek and Cheney-Palouse scabland tracts. Flood routing also depended on the erosion of the coulees. At some point, headward erosion of upper Grand Coulee lowered the divide saddle between the west-running Columbia valley and the deep and wide Grand Coulee heading southwest. Still uncertain is when this happened and the consequences with respect to the stage and extent of glacial Lake Columbia and to flood access to the other, higher, flood routes. Downstream, all flood routes converged onto Pasco Basin, flowed through Wallula Gap and the Columbia River Gorge into the Pacific Ocean, following submarine canyons and depositing sediment layers on abyssal plains. Stratigraphic studies indicate dozens—likely more than a hundred—separate Missoula floods during the last glacial period. Over the length of the flood route, backwater areas and depositional basins preserve multiple flood beds, many of which are separated by signs of time, including volcanic ash layers and soil development in subaerial environments; and varve-like beds and pelagic mud layers in lacustrine and marine settings. Evidence also comes from the glacial Lake Missoula basin, where stratigraphy indicates dozens of filling and emptying cycles. Varve counts in conjunction of radiocarbon dating and paleomagnetic secular variation show the repeated filling-and-release cycles of glacial Lake Missoula had intervals possibly as long as 100 years early in the lake’s history but diminished to just one or two years for the last few floods. This behavior accords with jökulhlaup-style floods released by subglacial drainage from a self-dumping ice-dammed lake. But not yet clear is whether such a mechanism applies to all the floods or if some emptied more cataclysmically as hypothesized by some. Radiocarbon dating of sparse organic materials remains key to defining flood chronology but has been lately bolstered by analyses of terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides and optically stimulated luminescence. Varve counts and paleomagnetic secular variation studies help to define durations and intervals represented by sequences of flood beds. The ~16 ka Mount St. Helens Set S tephra is commonly interbedded within flood deposits, enabling correlation of deposits among sites. Tephra from the 13.7–13.4 ka eruption of Glacier Peak overlies all glacial Lake Missoula and Missoula flood deposits, defining an end time. Overall conclusions are that glacial Lake Missoula was extant and producing floods for at least 3–4 ky during 20–14 ka. At least ~75 floods preceded Mount St Helens Set S, followed by 30 or more after the tephra fall. Most floods entered glacial Lake Columbia, impounded by the Okanogan lobe, for 2–5 ky between about 18.5 and 15 ka. Glacial Lake Columbia outlived Lake Missoula by >200–400 yr but may have been born later since at least one flood came down the Columbia valley before the Okanogan ice lobe blocked the Columbia valley at 18.5–18 ka. The maximum extent of the Okanogan and Purcell Trench lobes, many Missoula floods, substantial erosion of upper Grand Coulee, and the widespread tephra falls from Mount St. Helens eruptions all happened about 17–15 ka. People, in the area since 16.6–15.3 ka, almost certainly witnessed the last of the Missoula floods and later large floods from other ice-dammed lakes in the Columbia River basin. Quantitative flow analyses give peak discharge estimates and support understanding of erosional and depositional processes. The first flow assessments were simple cross-section calculations but recent assessments employ two-dimensional hydrodynamic models. The general finding is that emplacement of the maximum stage evidence requires about 20 million m3/s near the Lake Missoula outlet and about 5–15 million m3/s through Wallula Gap and downstream in the Columbia River Gorge. These hydraulic analyses raise still-unresolved questions regarding canyon erosion and possible additional water sources. The large Pleistocene Bonneville flood entered the Columbia River system from the southeast from pluvial Lake Bonneville, the Pleistocene predecessor to Great Salt Lake in the eastern Great Basin. During the last glacial, the lake basin filled, covering >50,000 km2 with 10,400 km3 of water before reaching its maximum possible stage governed by Red Rock Pass, the lowest divide separating the basin from the Snake River basin to the north. The overtopping lake rapidly incised 108–125 m into the Red Rock Pass outlet, spilling half of its total lake volume. G.K. Gilbert described the essential sequence in the 1870s, but the flood was mostly forgotten until the late 1950s when Harold Malde linked the spectacular scabland topography and bouldery “melon gravel” on the Snake River Plain to the Lake Bonneville overflow. The Bonneville flood appears to have been a singular event at about 18 ka. No evidence of multiple or pre-last-glacial spillovers has yet been found. Its total volume was about twice that of a maximum Lake Missoula flood yet its peak discharge was ~1 million m3/s, less than a tenth of the largest Missoula floods. Its comparatively simple flow path and much steadier flow make the Bonneville flood ideal for new studies of erosional and depositional processes. At least two floods seem to have passed down the Columbia valley after the last of the Missoula floods, including a large flood about ~14 ka likely from cataclysmic demise of the thinning Okanogan ice lobe dam impounding glacial Lake Columbia. Floods from earlier glacial ages left scant yet clear evidence in the Channeled Scabland and Columbia valley. But their source, timing, and magnitudes are little understood. Some deposits are paleomagnetically reversed, thus older than ~800 ka. Last-glacial floods and perhaps older ones affected the Snake River Plain, some likely sourced in lakes dammed by alpine glaciers in central Idaho.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗