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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Subduction zone geometry modulates the megathrust earthquake cycle: Magnitude, recurrence, and variability

Megathrust geometric properties exhibit some of the strongest correlations with maximum earthquake magnitude in global surveys of large subduction zone earthquakes, but the mechanisms through which fault geometry influences subduction earthquake cycle dynamics remain unresolved. Here, we develop 39 models of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) on variably-dipping planar and variably-curved nonplanar megathrusts using the volumetric, high-order accurate code tandem to account for fault curvature. We vary the dip, downdip curvature and width of the seismogenic zone to examine how slab geometry mechanically influences megathrust seismic cycles, including the size, variability, and interevent timing of earthquakes. Dip and curvature control characteristic slip styles primarily through their influence on seismogenic zone width: wider seismogenic zones allow shallowly-dipping megathrusts to host larger earthquakes than steeply-dipping ones. Under elevated pore pressure and less strongly velocity-weakening friction, all modeled fault geometries host uniform periodic ruptures. In contrast, shallowly-dipping and sharply-curved megathrusts host multi-period supercycles of slow-to-fast, small-to-large slip events under higher effective stresses and more strongly velocity-weakening friction. We discuss how subduction zones' maximum earthquake magnitudes may be primarily controlled by the dip and dimensions of the seismogenic zone, while second-order effects from structurally-derived mechanical heterogeneity modulate the recurrence frequency and timing of these events. Our results suggest that enhanced co- and interseismic strength and stress variability along the megathrust, such as induced near areas of high or heterogeneous fault curvature, limits how frequently large ruptures occur and may explain curved faults' tendency to host more frequent, smaller earthquakes than flat faults.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2024

Brittle regime slip partitioned damage and deformation mechanisms along the eastern Denali fault zone in southwestern, Yukon

Rare bedrock exposures of the eastern Denali fault zone in southwestern Yukon allow for the measurement, sampling, and analyses of brittle regime fault slip data and deformation mechanisms to explore relations to far field, oblique plate motions. Host rock lithologies and associated slip surfaces show episodic damage zone‐related deformation and calcite ± hematite ± chlorite related hydrothermal fluid flow. This regional scale network of asymmetric fault damage is spatially and kinematically linked to a discrete and narrow fault core. Fault network observations, orientations, slip data, and strain inversions document a slip partitioned strike‐slip fault system with locally and mutually overprinting strike‐, oblique‐, and dip‐slip components. Microstructural analyses reveal crystal plastic and co‐seismic brittle deformation mechanisms active in a narrow range of upper crustal temperature, pressure, fluid, and chemical conditions. The net damage related slip is not exclusively formed by a single kinematic system, but rather a fully partitioned, time integrated system likely operative for much of the fault's brittle regime evolution temporally constrained by previously published thermochronometric data. Although the fault slip data was collected from outcrop‐scale exposures at sites tens of kilometers apart, results show remarkable correlation between fault kinematics and plate motions along the ∼580 km long eastern Denali fault segment. End member, subhorizontal, northeast directed reverse and north directed dextral strike slip fault strain axes closely reflect relative plate motion interactions over at least the last 30 m.y. and act as a proxy for far‐field stresses compatible with the kinematics of the damage zone network.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Timescales of surface faulting preservation in low-strain intraplate regions from landscape evolution modeling and the geomorphic and historical record

Large surface-rupturing intraplate earthquakes in stable continental regions (SCRs) are uncommon globally and have recurrence intervals of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years based on the paleoseismic and geomorphic record, challenging accurate active fault identification in these regions. To constrain the timescales of preservation for scarps created by surface ruptures from dip-slip earthquakes, we use a two-dimensional scarp diffusion model for typical intraplate settings and explore which parameters influence fault scarp preservation. These parameters include the coseismic vertical surface offset, the recurrence interval of similar magnitude earthquakes, diffusivity (as a proxy for mean annual precipitation rate), and the erodibility of the surficial material. We constrain parameter ranges from a compilation of historical surface ruptures in intraplate settings in a variety of climates, including the Central and Eastern United States, Australia, Europe, Central Asia (Mongolia, China), India, and West Africa. The timescales of scarp preservation from landscape evolution modeling agree well with observations of scarp preservation in low-strain SCR and intraplate tectonic settings, with some notable exceptions for Australian scarps. We find that the erodibility of the surficial material and earthquake recurrence interval have a stronger effect on the timescales of scarp preservation than diffusivity or coseismic vertical surface offset. Our model results may aid in identifying and characterizing subtle, slow-moving active faults in low-strain SCR and intraplate tectonic settings for different tectonic, geomorphic, and climatic characteristics. Accurate fault locations and characterization from the landscape record has implications for both probabilistic seismic and fault displacement hazard analyses.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2025

New paleomagnetic constraints on the eruption timing, stratigraphy, and post-emplacement deformation of the Picture Gorge Basalt within the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Picture Gorge Basalt (PGB) is part of the Miocene Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG). The PGB, which outcrops in eastern Oregon, is considered coincident in time with the voluminous Grande Ronde Basalt. New radiometric ages have expanded the age‐range of the PGB, suggesting it began erupting prior to the Steens Basalt to its south and continued until after cessation of the Grande Ronde Basalt eruptions, an interval of 1.5 Ma. However, the existing paleomagnetism of the PGB implies this eruption timeline is an overestimate. To reconcile the radiometric and paleomagnetic timescales for the PGB, we conducted a paleomagnetic study on sections of the PGB to construct a detailed, high‐quality magnetostratigraphy. Our data indicate the stratigraphically lowest lava flows in the PGB are of reversed polarity, revealing a new paleomagnetic transition with the PGB and a reversed (R)–normal (N)–reversed (R) sequence. This suggests one of two timeline possibilities for PGB volcanism: (a) eruptions began and during through CRBG polarity chrons R0–N0–R1, penecontemporaneous with Steens Basalt, or (b) eruptions began and persisted during CRBG polarity chrons R1–N1–R2. Our work supports a longer interval of PGB volcanism than was suggested by previous paleomagnetic data but is at odds with the suggestion that PGB eruptions lasted through the entire main CRBG. We favor a scenario wherein PGB eruptions begin with R0 and continue into the R1 paleomagnetic interval. The paleomagnetic results also record a ∼18° vertical‐axis rotation of east‐central Oregon after ∼16 Ma with respect to stable North America.

Oregon↗
USGS2024

Likely ferromagnetic minerals identified by the Perseverance rover and implications for future paleomagnetic analyses of returned Martian samples

Although Mars today does not have a core dynamo, magnetizations in the Martian crust and in meteorites suggest a magnetic field was present prior to 3.7 billion years (Ga) ago. However, the lack of ancient, oriented Martian bedrock samples available on Earth has prevented accurate estimates of the dynamo's intensity, lifetime, and direction. Constraining the nature and lifetime of the dynamo are vital to understanding the evolution of the Martian interior and the potential habitability of the planet. The Perseverance rover, which is exploring Jezero crater, is providing an unprecedented opportunity to address this gap by acquiring absolutely oriented bedrock samples with estimated ages from ∼2.3 to >4.1 Ga. As a first step in establishing whether these samples could contain records of Martian paleomagnetism, it is important to determine their ferromagnetic mineralogy, the grain sizes of the phases, and the forms of any natural remanent magnetization. Here, we synthesize data from various Perseverance instruments to achieve those goals and discuss the implications for future laboratory paleomagnetic analyses. Using the rover's instrument payload, we find that cored samples likely contain iron oxides enriched in Cr and Ti. The relative proportions of Fe, Ti, and Cr indicate that the phases may be titanomagnetite or Fe-Ti-Cr spinels that are ferromagnetic at room temperature, but we cannot rule out the presence of non-ferromagnetic ulvöspinel, ilmenite, and chromite due to signal mixing. Importantly, the inferred abundance of iron oxides in the samples suggests that even <1 mm-sized samples will be easily measurable by present-day magnetometers.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2025

Origins of the water ice excavated by the Christmas Eve crater formation on Mars

On the 24th of December, 2021, a meteoroid struck the martian surface, producing a 150-m wide crater and excavating the lowest-latitude water ice observed on Mars to date. Knowledge of the preimpact depth, thickness and lateral continuity of the excavated ice would provide new insight into past environmental changes such as temperature and humidity of the atmosphere. In this work, we use the iSALE3D shock physics code to simulate the crater formation and constrain both the impact parameters and the original location of excavated ice. Analysis of the distal ejecta pattern suggests that the impact angle was 20±2.5◦ from horizontal. Based on a comparison of the simulated and observed crater morphology, we find the preimpact subsurface likely contained a stronger bedrock layer overlain by 15 m thick regolith layer. Our simulation results show that the ejected ice blocks visible in orbital images originated from shallow depths 3.2–11 m and from radii 30–60 m from the crater center. We conclude that the ice most likely originated from a massive ice layer at 3.2-11 m depth. The ice was likely also laterally discontinuous under the preimpact surface.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2025

Advancing current understanding of Martian impact-generated hydrothermal systems through novel coupled modeling: Insights from Gale, Jezero, and other craters

Impact-generated hydrothermal systems are considered potentially habitable environments on Mars, Earth, and other planetary bodies for microbial life. However, there is an ongoing debate regarding what geological features on Mars provide definitive evidence for such systems. Although earlier studies have modeled hydrothermal processes in Martian craters, they often lacked integration with shock physics hydrocodes to constrain initial impact conditions. The importance of this two-code coupling was demonstrated by successfully replicating alteration signatures in the Earth's Haughton impact structure. In this study, we use a similar two-code approach, combining the iSALE hydrocode with the HYDROTHERM hydrothermal model to simulate the full evolution of impact-generated hydrothermal systems. We apply this method to craters the size of Jezero (∼50 km) and Gale (∼154 km) in diameter. Although Jezero's interior is largely buried, our results align with hypothesized hydrothermal vents and alteration minerals near central uplifts in similarly sized exposed craters, such as Toro and Auki. Furthermore, our models correspond to alteration patterns observed by the Curiosity in the lower layers of Mount Sharp, which may represent remnants of impact-driven hydrothermal activity. A key finding is that these systems may persist much longer than previously estimated. Our simulations suggest that a Jezero-sized system could remain habitable for thermophiles for approximately 720,000 years, whereas a Gale-sized system could persist for nearly 2 million years. Additionally, simulations under unsaturated crustal conditions reveal that air-dominated near-surface layers can suppress vertical fluid flow, enabling deep subsurface alteration without producing detectable mineral signatures at the surface.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets↗
USGS2024

Constraining mean landslide occurrence rates for non-temporal landslide inventories using high-resolution elevation data

Constraining landslide occurrence rates can help to generate landslide hazard models that predict the spatial and temporal occurrence of landslides. However, most landslide inventories do not include any temporal data due to the difficulties of dating landslide deposits. Here we introduce a method for estimating the mean landslide occurrence rate of deep-seated rotational and translational slides derived solely from high-resolution (≤3 m) elevation data and globally available estimates of the diffusion coefficient for sediment flux. The method applies a linear diffusion model to the roughest landslide deposits until they reach a representative non-landslide roughness distribution. This estimates the time for a landslide deposit to be unrecognizable in high-resolution digital elevation data, which we term the mean lifetime of the landslide. Using the mean lifetime and number of landslides within an area of interest, we can estimate the mean occurrence rate of landslides over that domain. We validate this approach using a comprehensive temporal inventory of landslides in western Oregon created using age-roughness curves that are calibrated with high-resolution elevation data and radiocarbon data. We find good agreement between our diffusion method and the existing age-roughness-derived estimates, producing mean lifetimes of 4500 and 5200 years (4% difference), respectively. Hazard maps produced using the two methodologies generally agree, with the maximum differences in landslide probability reaching 0.1. Due to the relative abundance of high-resolution elevation data compared with age-dated landslides, our method could help constrain landslide occurrence rates in areas previously considered unfeasible.

Oregon↗
USGS2024

Postfire sediment mobilization and its downstream implications across California, 1984 – 2021

Fire facilitates erosion through changes in vegetation and soil, with major postfire erosion commonly occurring even with moderate rainfall. As climate warms, the western United States (U.S.) is experiencing an intensifying fire regime and increasing frequency of extreme rain. We evaluated whether these hydroclimatic changes are evident in patterns of postfire erosion by modeling hillslope erosion following all wildfires larger than 100 km 2 in California from 1984 to 2021. Our results show that annual statewide postfire hillslope erosion has increased significantly over time. To supplement the hillslope erosion modeling, we compiled modeled and measured postfire debris-flow volumes. We find that, in northern California, more than 50% of fires triggering the top 20 values of sediment mass and sediment yield occurred in the most recent decade (between 2011 and 2021). In southern California, the postfire sediment budget was dominated by debris flows, which showed no temporal trend. Our analysis reveals that 57% of postfire sediment erosion statewide occurred upstream of reservoirs, indicating potential impacts to reservoir storage capacity and thus increased risk to water-resource security with ongoing climate change.

California↗
USGS2024

RegionGrow3D: A deterministic analysis for characterizing discrete three-dimensional landslide source areas on a regional scale

Regional-scale characterization of shallow landslide hazards is important for reducing their destructive impact on society. These hazards are commonly characterized by (a) their location and likelihood using susceptibility maps, (b) landslide size and frequency using geomorphic scaling laws, and (c) the magnitude of disturbance required to cause landslides using initiation thresholds. Typically, this is accomplished through the use of inventories documenting the locations and triggering conditions of previous landslides. In the absence of comprehensive landslide inventories, physics-based slope stability models can be used to estimate landslide initiation potential and provide plausible distributions of landslide characteristics for a range of environmental and forcing conditions. However, these models are sometimes limited in their ability to capture key mechanisms tied to discrete three-dimensional (3D) landslide mechanics while possessing the computational efficiency required for broad-scale application. In this study, the RegionGrow3D (RG3D) model is developed to broadly simulate the area, volume, and location of landslides on a regional scale (≥1,000 km 2 ) using 3D, limit-equilibrium (LE)-based slope stability modeling. Furthermore, RG3D is incorporated into a susceptibility framework that quantifies landsliding uncertainty using a distribution of soil shear strengths and their associated probabilities, back-calculated from inventoried landslides using 3D LE-based landslide forensics. This framework is used to evaluate the influence of uncertainty tied to shear strength, rainfall scenarios, and antecedent soil moisture on potential landsliding and rainfall thresholds over a large region of the Oregon Coast Range, USA.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗
USGS2025

Uncertainty reduction for subaerial landslide-tsunami hazards

Subaerial rock slopes may generate a tsunami by rapidly moving into the water. Large uncertainty in landslide characteristics propagates into large uncertainty in tsunami hazard, making hazard assessment more difficult for land and emergency managers. Once a potentially tsunamigenic landslide is identified, it may not be clear which landslide characteristics contribute most significantly to uncertainty in the tsunami hazard. Our aim is to document the relative worth of different landslide characteristics (e.g., size, material properties) for reducing uncertainty in landslide-tsunami hazard assessments. Isolating the relative importance of specific landslide characteristics may inform prioritization of data collection and improve efficiency in understanding hazard. To accomplish this, we generated a set of 288 landslide-tsunami simulations in which we systematically varied the size and material properties of possible failure extents at the Barry Arm landslide complex in northwestern Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. We find that for landslides smaller than the receiving waterbody, the landslide volume has the strongest effect on resulting wave characteristics and thus the highest leverage on reducing uncertainty in tsunami hazard. In contrast, for landslides substantially larger than the waterbody, the duration of rapid movement of the landslide has the highest leverage. Based on our results, we propose a classification scheme for subaerial landslides based on the relative size of the landslide and waterbody. Additionally, our results support the generation of a tsunami height transfer function between existing tide gages and a nearby coastal city. These results have direct implications for the practice of operational early warning.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Hyperspectral imaging predicts differences in carbon and nitrogen status among representative biocrust functional groups of the Colorado Plateau

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widespread soil photosynthetic communities covering about 12% of Earth's land surface and play crucial roles in terrestrial carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles, yet scalable quantifications of biocrusts and their biogeochemical contributions are notably lacking. While remote sensing has enormous potential to assess, scale, and contextualize biocrusts and their functions, the applicability of hyperspectral data in predicting C- and N-related biocrust traits remains largely unexplored. We address this issue by evaluating the potential of in situ hyperspectral data to predict C and N across a range of biocrust species and different environmental conditions. We found that in situ hyperspectral reflectance measurements can be used to predict biocrust tissue C/N ratios and N concentrations with relatively high accuracy but to a lesser extent for potential biocrust N2 fixation rates. Critical wavelength domains included the visible region of the spectrum from roughly 490–600 nm, which most effectively captured variations in biocrust tissue C, and the shortwave infrared region from 1,150 to 1,350 nm and 1,550–1,650 nm, which most effectively captured biocrust tissue N and N2 fixation potential. Finally, we provide evidence that multi- and hyperspectral missions with targeted band placement, such as the proposed 26-band Landsat Next, could be effective in predicting biocrust traits. This work provides a critical step in understanding how to apply data from new and upcoming satellite missions to the monitoring of biocrusts.

Utah↗
USGS2024

Climate, hydrology, and nutrients control the seasonality of Si concentrations in rivers

The seasonal behavior of fluvial dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations, termed DSi regime , mediates the timing of DSi delivery to downstream waters and thus governs river biogeochemical function and aquatic community condition. Previous work identified five distinct DSi regimes across rivers spanning the Northern Hemisphere, with many rivers exhibiting multiple DSi regimes over time. Several potential drivers of DSi regime behavior have been identified at small scales, including climate, land cover, and lithology, and yet the large-scale spatiotemporal controls on DSi regimes have not been identified. We evaluate the role of environmental variables on the behavior of DSi regimes in nearly 200 rivers across the Northern Hemisphere using random forest models. Our models aim to elucidate the controls that give rise to (a) average DSi regime behavior, (b) interannual variability in DSi regime behavior (i.e., Annual DSi regime), and (c) controls on DSi regime shape (i.e., minimum and maximum DSi concentrations). Average DSi regime behavior across the period of record was classified accurately 59% of the time, whereas Annual DSi regime behavior was classified accurately 80% of the time. Climate and primary productivity variables were important in predicting Average DSi regime behavior, whereas climate and hydrologic variables were important in predicting Annual DSi regime behavior. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were important drivers of minimum and maximum DSi concentrations, indicating that these macronutrients may be important for seasonal DSi drawdown and rebound. Our findings demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, hydrology, and nutrient availability of rivers shape the temporal availability of fluvial DSi.

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences↗
USGS2024

Longitudinal and seasonal changes of organic matter sources through a semi-arid river-reservoir system

The quality and quantity of organic matter (OM) in a river system directly affects ecosystem health; thus, managers benefit from an in-depth understanding of the drivers and sources of OM. In the Snake River, a highly altered river-reservoir system in the semi-arid western United States, OM production and loading are key drivers of reservoir anoxia, which leads to several deleterious processes such as mercury methylation. However, sources and quantities of OM to the Snake River, and the effects of impoundment on OM moving through the river-reservoir system, are not well understood. Particulate organic carbon (POC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate nitrogen (PN), chlorophyll a (chl- a ), and δ 15 N–PN and δ 13 C–POC isotopic ratios were measured bi-weekly for over 2 years at four locations through the Snake River Hells Canyon Reservoir Complex to determine spatial and temporal patterns of OM quantities and sources. POC concentrations increased through the riverine zone upstream of the reservoirs, likely due to in situ primary production and/or inputs from tributaries and agricultural drains; then decreased through the most upstream reservoir likely due to particle settling. Isotopic ratios and other OM source indicators (δ 15 N–PN, δ 13 C–POC, POC:PN, chl- a :POC) show that the dominant source of particulate OM was phytoplankton with seasonal terrestrial/macrophytic inputs. Results highlight the effects of major tributary and agricultural drain inputs, primary production, and impoundment on OM composition and concentration through a large river-reservoir system and may inform water quality management efforts in this and similar systems.

Idaho, Oregon↗
USGS2025

Rupture continuity through intermittent pauses in Cascadia slow slip events

Cascadia slow slip events (SSEs) are often envisioned as smooth, continuous ruptures, progressively activating tremor asperities as they propagate. Macroscopically, geodetic inversions and spatiotemporal maps of tremor epicenters show steady, uniform migration. In detail tremor is more chaotic and discontinuous. Larger long-term SSEs observed in daily geodetic solutions are inferred to exhibit intermittent pauses that reflect temporary re-locking of the fault, but this temporal resolution limits tests for similar re-locking on shorter timescales. We use temporal measurements of the areal growth and radiated energy of tremor clusters to investigate SSE intermittence. We find that ruptures mirror tremor pauses. Areal growth rate, however, does not reset, and removing the pauses results in smoother and more similar growth measurements among all SSEs. The rupture similarity occurs regardless of size or location and hints at an underlying uniformity and lack of predeterminism in eventual SSE size. Epicentral uncertainty precludes quantifying early rupture stages, but for larger events areal growth follows a power-law and slows with increasing size. Temporal correlations in tremor energy with inferred SSE propagation velocities and tremor rates suggest its use as a proxy for slip velocity. We find that tremor energy is tidally modulated at daily and sub-daily frequencies, and this modulation is continuous through pauses, suggesting a memory of slip state is sustained through them. We argue these pauses reflect unsteady propagation of the slip front, marked by rapid re- and un-locking, and excluding them removes rupture complexity to reveal a diffusive-like slip process and underlying universality in growth.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2026

Constraining the permeability and outer-rise hydration at the Central America margin

Subduction zones are important drivers of Earth's geochemical evolution; the presence of water within the subduction system has substantial implications for geohazards, including the style of seismicity and the volume of magma generated at arc volcanoes. We utilize estimates of pore fluid distributions in the outer-rise region of the Central American margin imaged using controlled-source electro-magnetic surveys and novel two-dimensional forward models simulating poro-elastic deformation of slab bending to constrain the background permeability structure of the Cocos Plate and within outer-rise fault damage zones. The model results suggest that a relatively low background permeability structure is required to match the observed porosity at depths greater than 3 km (less than ~10 −21 m 2 . Similarly, increasing the permeability within the damage zones of outer-rise faults by more than a factor of 10 also over-predicts observed porosity distributions at depths greater than 3 km. However, the simulations consistently underpredict pore fluid distributions between depths of 1–3 km, which may reflect nonlinear elastic or anelastic deformation processes not included in the simulations or inherent uncertainty in the conversion of resistivity measurements to porosity distributions. The best-fitting depth-permeability relationship is relatively low, which has important implications for the timing of pore fluid release down-dip of the trench, as it restricts shallow fluid release, likely leading to higher pore fluid pressures, more widespread hydraulic fracturing, and deeper release of pore fluid along the plate interface.

Journal of Geophysical Research, Solid Earth↗
USGS2026

Role of volcano-tectonic interactions during early-phase magma-assisted continental rifting

We study volcanic-tectonic interactions during the early phase of rifting in the Natron Rift, a magmatic segment of the East African Rift System. We use the open-source crustal deformation modeling code, PyLith, to model deflation during the 2007–2008 explosive eruptions and inflation during 2016–2023. We compare predictions of surface displacements resulting from magma reservoir inflation from 3D models with and without topography and homogeneous and heterogeneous material properties against Global Navigation Satellite System displacements from 2016 to 2023. We prefer the model with heterogeneous material properties and topography for fitting the observed displacements. Including topography improves the fit to GNSS data and modulates stress changes from shallow magma sources. Our numerical modeling of Coulomb stress changes suggests that deflation of a magma reservoir under the active Ol Doinyo Lengai volcano could trigger oblique normal slip on the Natron Fault with Coulomb stress increases exceeding ∼0.1 MPa on the volcano-adjacent fault segment. Fault slip on the Natron Fault is less likely during inflation of the magma reservoir because normal compressive stress increases on the fault. We also demonstrate that Coulomb stress changes are sensitive to the inclusion of topography in our model, particularly because the depth of the magma reservoir is similar to the amplitude of the topographic relief.

Ol Doinyo Lenga↗
USGS2026

Rapid seismic and infrasound assessment of large landslides: A case study from Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska)

Large, rapid landslides are a global hazard that can occur in remote, mountainous areas. Eyewitness reports of landslides and satellite imagery can often be limited or delayed, particularly during inclement weather. However, landslide-generated seismic and infrasound (low-frequency atmospheric sound) waves can be remotely detected in near real-time. This information can significantly expedite characterization and possible landslide response activities. Here, we highlight these capabilities using a > 4 million m³ ice–rock avalanche in Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska). This event was detected via a landslide-specific seismic location and volume estimation algorithm deployed in Alaska, and — notably — by standard earthquake monitoring systems. Following rapid detection of this event, we combined its seismic and infrasound dataset with optical, synthetic aperture radar, and oblique aerial imagery, multitemporal digital elevation models, and a numerical flow model to reconstruct its failure timeline and dynamics. We apply array processing to infrasound signals traveling > 250 km and find that two precursory events occurred minutes prior to the main failure. We use long-period seismic signals to infer the force exerted by the landslide on the Earth and constrain the rheological parameters of our numerical flow simulation with this result and deposit morphology. The main failure produced a steeply-dipping impulsive initial downward force and reached speeds exceeding 60 m/s. This impulsive force generated relatively strong seismic body waves, which contributed to the earthquake system detection. This large, remote Alaska landslide underscores the key value of seismic and infrasound analysis for rapid landslide assessment and motivates efforts to further operationalize these approaches.

Alaska↗