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Estimating and applying fish and invertebrate density and production enhancement from seagrass, salt marsh edge, and oyster reef nursery habitats in the Gulf of Mexico

Seagrasses, oyster reefs, and salt marshes are critical coastal habitats that support high densities of juvenile fish and invertebrates. Yet which species are enhanced through these nursery habitats, and to what degree, remains largely unquantified. Densities of young-of-year fish and invertebrates in seagrasses, oyster reefs, and salt marsh edges as well as in paired adjacent unstructured habitats of the northern Gulf of Mexico were compiled. Species consistently found at higher densities in the structured habitats were identified, and species-specific growth and mortality models were applied to derive production enhancement estimates arising from this enhanced density. Enhancement levels for fish and invertebrate production were similar for seagrass (1370 [SD 317] g m –2 y –1 for 25 enhanced species) and salt marsh edge habitats (1222 [SD 190] g m –2 y –1 , 25 spp.), whereas oyster reefs produced ~650 [SD 114] g m –2 y –1 (20 spp). This difference was partly due to lower densities of juvenile blue crab ( Callinectes sapidus ) on oyster reefs, although only oyster reefs enhanced commercially valuable stone crabs ( Menippe spp.). The production estimates were applied to Galveston Bay, Texas, and Pensacola Bay, Florida, for species known to recruit consistently in those embayments. These case studies illustrated variability in production enhancement by coastal habitats within the northern Gulf of Mexico. Quantitative estimates of production enhancement within specific embayments can be used to quantify the role of essential fish habitat, inform management decisions, and communicate the value of habitat protection and restoration.

Gulf of Mexico↗

Northern Gulf of Mexico: USGS science contributions to a resilient coast, 2006-2011

The devastating hurricane season of 2005 challenged U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a science base for resource managers and policy makers that could provide an understanding of the multiple stressors and influence affecting the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and to rack changes in linked coastal systems. The complexity of the Gulf Coast requires a science strategy for data collection and data reporting that is consistent across regional ecosystems and that can be applied to both short-term and long-term responses to stressors.

Gulf Of Mexico↗

Assessment of Effectiveness and Limitations of Habitat Suitability Models for Wetland Restoration

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models developed for wildlife in the Louisiana Coastal Area Comprehensive Ecosystem Restoration Plan (LCA study) have been assessed for parameter and overall model quality. The success of the suitability models from the South Florida Water Management District for The Everglades restoration project and from the Spatially Explicit Species Index Models (SESI) of the Across Trophic Level System Simulation (ATLSS) Program of Florida warranted investigation with possible application of modeling theory to the current LCA study. General HSI models developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service were also investigated. This report presents examinations of theoretical formulae and comparisons of the models, performed by using diverse hypothetical settings of hydrological/biological ecosystems to highlight weaknesses as well as strengths among the models, limited to the American alligator and selected wading bird species (great blue heron, great egret, and white ibis). Recommendations were made for the LCA study based on these assessments. An enhanced HSI model for the LCA study is proposed for the American alligator, and a new HSI model for wading birds is introduced for the LCA study. Performance comparisons of the proposed models with the other suitability models are made by using the aforementioned hypothetical settings.

Open-File Report↗

Florida Bay salinity and Everglades wetlands hydrology circa 1900 CE: A compilation of paleoecology-based statistical modeling analyses

Throughout the 20th century, the Greater Everglades Ecosystem of south Florida was greatly altered by human activities. Construction of water-control structures and facilities altered the natural hydrologic patterns of the south Florida region and consequently impacted the coastal ecosystem. Restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem is guided by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), which is attempting to reverse some of the impacts of water management. In order to achieve this goal, it is essential to understand the predevelopment conditions (circa 1900 Common Era, CE) of the natural system, including the estuaries. The purpose of this report is to use empirical data derived from analyses of estuarine sediment cores and observations of modern hydrologic and salinity conditions to provide information on the natural system circa 1900 CE. A three-phase approach, developed in 2009, couples paleosalinity estimates derived from sediment cores to upstream hydrology using statistical models prepared from existing monitoring data. Results presented here update and improve previous analyses. A statistical method of estimating the paleosalinity from the core information improves the previous assemblage analyses, and the system of linear regression models was significantly upgraded and expanded. The upgraded method of coupled paleosalinity and hydrologic models was applied to the analysis of the circa-1900 CE segments of five estuarine sediment cores collected in Florida Bay. Comparisons of the observed mean stage (water level) data to the paleoecology-based model's averaged output show that the estimated stage in the Everglades wetlands was 0.3 to 1.6 feet higher at different locations. Observed mean flow data compared to the paleoecology-based model output show an estimated flow into Shark River Slough at Tamiami Trail of 401 to 2,539 cubic feet per second (cfs) higher than existing flows, and at Taylor Slough Bridge an estimated flow of 48 to 218 cfs above existing flows. For salinity in Florida Bay, the difference between paleoecology-based and observed mean salinity varies across the bay, from an aggregated average salinity of 14.7 less than existing in the northeastern basin to 1.0 less than existing in the western basin near the transition into the Gulf of Mexico. When the salinity differences are compared by region, the difference between paleoecology-based conditions and existing conditions are spatially consistent.

Forida↗

Geologic resource evaluation of Pu‘ukoholā Heiau National Historic Site, Hawai‘i, part II: Benthic habitat mapping

In cooperation with the U.S. National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has mapped the underwater environment in and adjacent to three parks along the Kona coast on the island of Hawai‘i. This report is the second of two produced for the NPS on the geologic resource evaluation of Pu‘ukoholā Heiau National Historic Site (PUHE) and presents benthic habitat mapping of the waters of Kawaihae Bay offshore of PUHE. See Part I (Richmond and others, 2006) for an overview of the regional geology, local volcanics, and a detailed description of coastal landforms in the park. PUHE boundaries do not officially extend into the marine environment; however, impacts downslope of any activity in the park are of concern to management. The area of Kawaihae Bay mapped for this report extends from the north edge of the U.S. Coast Guard Reservation north of Kawaihae Harbor approximately 3.5 km south to the north edge of the Mauna Kea Golf Course and Beach Resort at Waikoloa and from the shoreline to depths of approximately 40 m (130 ft), where the fore reef drops off to the sandy shelf. The waters of smaller Pelekane Bay directly offshore of the park, while not formally under NPS jurisdiction, are managed by the park under an agreement with the State. This embayment is described in greater detail because of its special resource status. PUHE lies within the Kawaihae watershed, which contributes ~75 percent of the drainage in the northern portion of the study area; the Waikoloa/Waiulaula watershed contributes ~25 percent in the southern portion of the study area. Drainages from these watersheds into the study area include Makahuna, Makeāhua, Pohaukole, Kukui, and Waikoloa/Waiulaula Gulches. The Waikoloa/Waiulaula Gulch is the only perennial stream with a year-round water flow. Only during periods of extreme rainfall will water flow in the Makeāhua and Pohaukole gulches, merge together in the park, and empty directly into Pelekane Bay. In the late 1950s the reef off of PUHE was dredged to construct Kawaihae Harbor. Coral rubble was used in the construction of causeways and a revetment wall surrounding the commercial harbor. In the late 1960s the reef near Pelekane was blasted to create a small-boat harbor adjacent to the larger commercial harbor. Damage from these activities, in addition to a change in circulation patterns, has led to problems of high turbidity in Pelekane Bay.

Hawai'i↗

Landscape-level connectivity in coastal southern California, USA, as assessed through carnivore habitat suitability

Although the fragmentation of the natural landscape of coastal southern California, USA, is accelerating, large-scale assessments of regional connectivity are lacking. Because of their large area requirements and long dispersal movements, mammalian carnivores can be effective focal species to use when evaluating landscape-level connectivity. Our goal was to make an initial assessment of the extent of landscape-level connectivity in coastal southern California using mountain lions ( Felis concolor [Linnaeus]) and bobcats ( Felis rufus [Shreber]) as focal species. We first characterized habitat preferences for mountain lions and bobcats from previously derived habitat relationship models for these species; the resulting maps provided a coarse view of habitat preferences for use at regional scales. We then constructed GIS models to evaluate the disturbance impact of roadways and development, major determinants of carnivore distribution and abundance in the south coast region. Finally, we combined the habitat relationship models with the disturbance impact models to characterize habitat connectivity for mountain lions and bobcats in the ecoregion. Habitat connectivity in the ecoregion appeared higher for bobcats than for mountain lions due in part to higher habitat suitability for bobcats in coastal lowland areas. Our models suggest that much of the key carnivore habitat in the coastal southern California is at risk; over 80% of high suitability habitat and over 90% of medium suitability habitat for carnivores is found in the least protected land management classes. Overall, these models allow for (1) identification of core habitat blocks for carnivores and key landscape connections between core areas, (2) evaluation of the level of protection of these areas, and (3) a regional framework within which to develop and coordinate local management and conservation plans.

California↗

Status of the California Red-legged Frog (Rana draytonii) in the State of Baja California, México

The California Red-legged Frog ( Rana draytonii ) is a threatened species in the United States that has undergone population declines, especially in southern California. Due to the lack of information on the status of Mexican populations, we surveyed for the presence of R. draytonii in Baja California and assessed possible threats to population persistence. Our study area extended from the U.S.-Mexican border to the southern end of the distribution of the species in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir. We found R. draytonii at six of 15 historical sites, none at five proxy sites (i.e., alternative sites chosen because the historical record lacked precise locality data), and four at 24 additional sites. The 10 occupied sites are within three watersheds in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir (two sites at Arroyo San Rafael, two sites at Arroyo San Telmo, and six sites at Arroyo Santo Domingo). We did not detect R. draytonii at 60% of historical sites, including the highest elevation site at La Encantada and multiple low-elevation coastal drainages, suggesting the species has declined in Baja California. The threats we noted most frequently were presence of exotic aquatic animal species, water diversion, and cattle grazing. Management of remaining populations and local education is needed to prevent further declines.

Baja California↗

Dynamic Energy Budget modelling to predict eastern oyster growth, reproduction, and mortality under river management and climate change scenarios

Eastern oysters growing in deltaic Louisiana estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico must tolerate considerable salinity variation from natural climate variability (e.g., rainfall and stream run-off pushing isohalines offshore; tropical storms pushing isohalines inshore) and man-made diversions and siphons releasing freshwater from the Mississippi River. These salinity variations are predicted to increase with future climate change because of the increased frequency of stronger storms and also in response to proposed large-scale river diversions. Increased Mississippi River flow into coastal estuaries from river diversions, along with potential changes in rainfall and stream run-off from climate change will alter spatial and temporal salinity patterns. In this study we used an individual Dynamic Energy Budget model to predict growth and reproductive potential of eastern oysters across observed and simulated salinity gradients corresponding to different climate and river management scenarios. We used validated model outputs of salinity from a coupled hydrology-hydrodynamic model to assess the current impacts of Davis Pond diversion discharge on oysters located downstream. Under a high diversion discharge scenario oyster growth potential was reduced by 9%, 4%, and 1% in Upper, Mid, and Lower Bay locations, respectively, as compared to a limited discharge year. Reproductive outputs decreased by 34% and 2% in the Upper and Lower Bay locations, respectively, and increased by 2% at the Mid Bay site. In scenarios combining predicted increased temperature with the effect of diversions, all oysters located in the Upper and Mid Bay sites died due to severe summer conditions (high temperatures combined with low salinity). Overall, oysters in down-estuary locations, influenced by both estuarine river management and gulf conditions demonstrated significant tolerance to changing salinity and temperature conditions from diversions alone and when combined with climate change. In contrast, oysters located up-estuary, and exposed to more extreme salinity impacts from river management, demonstrated potentially lethal impacts through direct mortality, and reduced sustainability through decrease in reproductive effort. These predictions at the individual level may translate into less sustainable populations in the most extreme scenarios; restoration and production plans would benefit from accounting for these impacts on reproductive output particularly as decision makers seek to restore critical oyster areas.

Louisiana↗

Analyzing the water budget and hydrological characteristics and responses to land use in a monsoonal climate river basin in South China

Hydrological models have been increasingly used by hydrologists and water resource managers to understand natural processes and human activities that affect watersheds. In this study, we use the physically based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to investigate the hydrological processes in the East River Basin in South China, a coastal area dominated by monsoonal climate. The SWAT model was calibrated using 8-year (1973–1980) record of the daily streamflow at the basin outlet (Boluo station), and then validated using data collected during the subsequent 8 years (1981–1988). Statistical evaluation shows that SWAT can consistently simulate the streamflow of the East River with monthly Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.93 for calibration and 0.90 for validation at the Boluo station. We analyzed the model simulations with calibrated parameters, presented the spatiotemporal distribution of the key hydrological components, and quantified their responses to different land uses. Watershed managers can use the results of this study to understand hydrological features and evaluate water resources of the East River in terms of sustainable development and effective management.

Environmental Management↗

Geohydrologic Framework of Recharge and Seawater Intrusion in the Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

Pajaro Valley is a coastal watershed of 160 square miles located along Monterey Bay north of Elkhorn Slough and south of the city of Santa Cruz. The valley has been predominantly developed for agriculture since the late 1800s. In 1984 the Pajaro Valley Water Management Agency (PVWMA) was formed and was delegated with the responsibility of the management of the water resources within the Pajaro Valley by the State of California. About 84 percent of the water is used for agriculture and 16 percent is used for industrial and municipal water supply; almost all of the demand is supplied by ground water. Ground-water pumpage varies with seasonal and climatic periods. The alluvial aquifers are composed of Quaternary- and Tertiary-aged sediments that are layered marine and terrestrial coarse-grained deposits separated by extensive fine-grained deposits that potentially restrict vertical movement of ground water and seawater intrusion in the coastal subareas. The coarse-grained deposits, which persist over large areas, control pumpage and related seawater intrusion. The Aromas Sand crops out throughout the north and central parts of the PVWMA area and offshore on the continental shelf and in Monterey submarine canyon. Because many of the wells in the coastal and inland subregions are screened at depths of 200 to 400 feet below land surface, a direct avenue is provided for seawater intrusion through the coarse-grained deposits of the shallower alluvium and Aromas Sand. Geophysical logs from monitoring wells indicate discrete zones of saline water that are related to pumpage and seawater intrusion in the aquifers of the shallower alluvium and upper Aromas Sand in the upper-aquifer system and to deeper saline waters in the lower Aromas Sand within the lower-aquifer system. The precipitation data indicate that there were at least nine dry and nine wet periods that range from 2 to 19 years during the period of record, 1880?1997. The ground-water pumpage, runoff, streamflow and related water quality of streamflow also vary with seasonal and climatic periods. Recharge occurs from deep percolation of precipitation and from infiltration of streamflow. Streamflow originates from local runoff and from outside the valley as inflow from the Pajaro River. Although partly regulated, streamflow in the Pajaro River at Chittenden is less than 200 cubic feet per second 88 percent of the time and is less than 12 cubic feet per second 50 percent of the time. Streamflow water-quality data suggest that there may be several sources of poor-quality water that contribute to elevated chloride, sulfate, and nitrate concentrations in streamflow. The poor water quality occurring during lower streamflows indicates that low flows may be an additional source of salinity for ground-water recharge as streamflow infiltration along the Pajaro River. The geochemical data from this study indicate that the two main sources of recharge are deep percolation of local runoff and streamflow infiltration of Pajaro River water. The geophysical and geochemical data suggest that only the shallow alluvial aquifer and parts of the upper Aromas Sand that constitute the upper-aquifer system are being replenished by recent recharge in the coastal areas of Pajaro Valley and represent the renewable ground-water resources. These data also suggest that there is very little vertical flow through the layered aquifer systems in the coastal regions. The confining aquitards are laterally extensive but may be missing in places owing to fluvial erosion or offsetting by fault movement. Geochemical and geophysical data indicate that the ground water from some parts of the upper and lower Aromas Sand in the coastal regions was recharged thousands of years ago and may, in part, represent nonrenewable ground-water resources. The analysis of major-ion chemistry, in combination with isotope and trace-element/chloride ratios, indicates that the coastal ground-water and surface-water samples

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Coastal change-potential assessment of Sleeping Bear Dunes, Indiana Dunes, and Apostle Islands National Lakeshores to lake-level changes

A change-potential index (CPI) was used to map the susceptibility of the shoreline to future lake-level change within Apostle Islands, Indiana Dunes, and Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshores (NL) along Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. The CPI in the Great Lakes setting ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to lake-level related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate and direction (i.e., rise and fall) of relative lake-level change, historical shoreline change rates, annual ice cover and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined, and an index value calculated for 1-minute bins covering the parks. The CPI highlights those regions where the physical effects of lake-level and coastal change might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's potential for change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural susceptibility to the effects of lake-level variation. The CPI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The CPI is applied to the National Lakeshores of Apostle Islands, Indiana Dunes, and Sleeping Bear Dunes to test this methodology in lake settings. The National Lakeshores in this study consist of sand and gravel beaches, rock outcrops, and dune and glacial bluffs. The areas within these Great Lakes parks that are likely to experience the most lake-levelrelated coastal change are areas of unconsolidated sediment where regional coastal slope is low and wave energy is high.

Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗

U.S. Geological Survey Chesapeake science strategy, 2015-2025—Informing ecosystem management of America’s largest estuary

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the critical role of providing scientific information to improve the understanding and management of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The USGS works with Federal, State, and academic science partners to provide research and monitoring, and communicate results of these activities to enhance ecosystem management for both the Chesapeake and other National ecosystems. The USGS Chesapeake Science Strategy was prepared to guide science activities to address the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement (2014–2025), to support the Department of the Interior (DOI) involvement in the Bay restoration efforts, and align with the USGS Mission Area (MA) Science strategies. The Chesapeake Bay is our Nation’s largest estuary, and provides critical goods and services to the people, fish, and wildlife that use the 64,000-square-mile watershed. The Chesapeake Bay watershed contains over 3,600 species of fish, wildlife, and plants and provides spawning grounds for many ecologically and economically important species including striped bass and blue crabs. The Bay watershed lies in the heart of the Atlantic Flyway and has 29 species of waterfowl, about 1 million of which winter in the region. The size of the Chesapeake seafood harvest is third in the Nation, only behind the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Along with agricultural production, tourism, and recreation, the estimated economic value of the services from the Chesapeake Bay watershed is about $100 billion annually. However, the health of the Bay ecosystem began to decline at the beginning of the 20th century due to overfishing and increasing human population and associated land change. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is the Federal-State cooperative effort that started in 1983 to restore the Bay and watershed. Given the ecological and economic importance of the Chesapeake ecosystem, President Obama issued an Executive Order (EO) in 2009 for increased Federal leadership in the CBP to enhance the pace of restoration, and the supporting strategy was released in 2010. The EO directed the Federal Government, including the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), represented by the National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS), and the USGS, to expand its efforts and increase leadership to restore the Bay and its watershed. The USGS and other Federal agencies expanded their activities in 2011 to meet the President’s Chesapeake EO. Since the EO was released, there have been several important changes in the USGS, DOI, and the CBP including: (1) the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, (2) increased DOI leadership in the CBP, and (3) the release of the USGS MA science strategies. The EO strategy served as a foundation for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement that was signed in 2014 by the CBP Partners, and has goals and outcomes to be met by 2025. The USGS developed the Chesapeake Science Strategy to guide our activities to address the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, DOI leadership in the CBP, and USGS MA strategies. Improving the understanding of fish and wildlife population and health, and the factors affecting their condition is the emphasis of the Strategy. The science focuses on documenting the critical ecosystem connections in the Chesapeake, and providing implications to enhance decision making for restoration and conservation activities. The revised Strategy has four themes that address 7 of the 10 goals in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement: Enhance science to support restoration, and conservation of fish, wildlife, and critical habitats. Characterize and explain changes in water quality, and its effect on freshwater and estuarine ecosystems. Assess and forecast effects of climate and land change on ecosystem conditions. Synthesize and provide information to support ecosystem management. The structure and function of biological communities of the Bay and its watershed are extremely complex and are affected by a variety of stressors and conditions. To better define the issues being addressed, the USGS has developed cross-cutting questions that define some of the most important scientific challenges where multiple disciplines and collaborators are needed to address an issue. The initial questions include: How do land and climate changes affect freshwater fish communities, health, and habitats? What are the relations among land use, water quality, contaminants, and the health of fish and wildlife? How are coastal wetlands and their carrying capacity for waterbirds affected by changing climate and land use? How is the water quality of rivers and estuaries responding to restoration actions, and changing land use? What are some of the best opportunities for management actions to benefit multiple restoration outcomes?

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

U.S. Geological Survey program of offshore resource and geoenvironmental studies, Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico region, from September 1, 1976, to December 31, 1978

Mineral and energy resources of the continental margins of the United States arc important to the Nation's commodity independence and to its balance of payments. These resources are being studied along the continental margins of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico in keeping with the mission of the U.S. Geological Survey to survey the geologic structures, mineral resources, and products of the national domain.'(Organic Act of 1879). An essential corollary to these resource studies is the study of potential geologic hazards that may be associated with offshore resource exploration and exploitation. In cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, the Geological Survey, through its Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico Marine Geology Program, carries out extensive research to evaluate hazards from sediment mobility, shallow gas, and slumping and to acquire information on the distribution and concentration of trace metals and biogenic and petroleum-derived hydrocarbons in sea-floor sediments. All these studies arc providing needed background information, including information on pollutant dispersal, on the nearshore, estuarine, and lacustrine areas that may be near pipeline and nuclear powerplant sites. Users of these data include the Congress, many Federal agencies, the coastal States, private industry, academia, and the concerned public. The results of the regional structural, stratigraphic, and resource studies carried out under the Atlantic-Gulf of Mexico Marine Geology Program have been used by the Geological Survey and the Bureau of Land Management to select areas for future leasing and to aid in the evaluation of tracts nominated for leasing. Resource studies have concentrated mostly on the Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf frontier areas. Geologic detailing of five major basins along the U.S. Atlantic margin, where sediments are as much as 14 km thick, have been revealed by 25,000 km of 24-and 48-channel common-depth-point seismic data, 187,000 km of acromagnetic data, and 39,000 km of gravity data, plus 10,000 samples and logs obtained from U.S. Geological Survey and industry drilling (for example, coreholes of the Atlantic Slope Program, Joint Oceanographic Institutions Deep Earth Sampling, Continental Offshore Stratigraphic Tests, and the Atlantic Margin Coring Program). A sedimentary section of Jurassic and Cretaceous age grades from terrigenous clastic rocks nearshore to carbonate rocks offshore; this section is part of an extensive buried bank-platform complex that could contain large reserves of natural gas and oil. The volume of sediment deposited offshore far exceeds the volume deposited onshore where extensive accumulations of oil, gas, and minerals have been found. Commercial exploratory drilling offshore thus far has been limited to the Baltimore Canyon Trough area off New Jersey, where at least two holes have found gas; leasing has taken place in the Southeast Georgia Embayment, where drilling was scheduled to begin in 1979, and is imminent in the Georges Bank area off New England. In addition, hydrogeologic and hydrochemical data obtained from the drilling studies have delineated freshwater-bearing submarine extensions of land aquifers that are important coastal ground-water resources. Hazards in the Georges Bank area include sand mobility associated with strong currents and storm-driven waves; high concentrations of suspended sediment in the water column that, when mixed with spilled oil, may sink to the bottom; and slumping along the upper slope. In the Baltimore Canyon, high sediment mobility accompanies major winter storms, and slumped material may cover as much as 20 percent of the upper slope. Potentially unstable slope areas are being studied in great detail to provide data on timing, triggering mechanisms, and rates of sediment movement. In the Southeast Georgia Embayment and Blake Plateau Basin, strong Gulf Stream flow poses a major problem to all offshore operations. In the Gulf o

Circular↗

The distribution and conservation status of the Gull-billed Tern (Gelochelidon nilotica) in North America

The Gull-billed Tern (Gelochelidon nilotica) has until recently received little conservation and management attention within North America despite a relatively low overall population size and significant declines in parts of the breeding range. This lack of attention may stem in part from the wide distribution of the species, encompassing parts of six continents, and from its tendency to nest in relatively small, scattered and often ephemeral colonies. Populations of North American subspecies are alarmingly small. The current population of the eastern subspecies aranea in the U.S. is unlikely to exceed 3,600 pairs, with over 60% of these birds occurring in Texas. The Texas population has remained generally stable, but declines of populations in Maryland (where probably extirpated), Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and possibly Georgia give cause for concern for this subspecies. For the western subspecies vanrossemi, as few as 250 pairs nest at only two locations in the U.S., both in California. When populations in western Mexico are considered, the entire vanrossemi population numbers only 600-800 pairs. Currently the Gull-billed Tern is listed as ?endangered? or ?threatened? in four states, and is considered to be of management concern in five others. The breeding range of the species has contracted and shifted slightly from its known historic range in the middle Atlantic states, but otherwise occupies its historic range in the United States and has expanded slightly to coastal southern California. Some range contraction in Mexico (e.g., in Sonora) may have occurred. In eastern Mexico, historical information is almost non-existent and knowledge of current distribution and abundance is incomplete. Main threats to populations in North America include loss of natural nesting islands through beach erosion or perturbations to estuarine functions, development or modification of upland habitats near breeding areas that may be important for foraging, and disturbances to colonies by humans and feral or human-subsidized predators. This species often nests on man-made substrates suggesting it could be responsive to management of breeding sites. Key research needs include more frequent and refined population monitoring, a better understanding of demographics, metapopulation dynamics and factors limiting populations as well as refinement of subspecies? breeding distributions and wintering ranges.

Waterbirds↗

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the Pacific region of the United States

Although spatial information describing the supply and quality of surface water is critical for managing water resources for human uses and for ecological health, monitoring is expensive and cannot typically be done over large scales or in all streams or waterbodies. To address the need for such data, the U.S. Geological Survey developed SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) for the Pacific region of the U.S. for streamflow and three water-quality constituents–total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment, based on a decadal time frame centered on the year 2012. The domain for these models included the Columbia River basin, the Puget Sound, the coastal drainages of Washington, Oregon, and California, and the Central Valley of California. Landscape runoff (represented by the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) was the largest source of streamflow, wastewater discharge, and atmospheric deposition were the largest contributors to total nitrogen yield from the Pacific region, wastewater discharge was the largest contributor to total phosphorus yield, and forest land was the largest contributor to suspended-sediment yield. Watersheds with relatively high water yields also generally had relatively high yields of total nitrogen, total phosphorous, and suspended sediment–except where there were large contributions from developed land and wastewater discharge. The data used in this study, including many that improved upon existing national data or were compiled specifically for the Pacific region, characterized the complex hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the region more completely than previous models. By using these new datasets, this investigation was able to account for the complex network of water diversions and transfers, quantify the contribution of nutrients from different sources of livestock manure, discern a signal from unpaved logging roads in the suspended-sediment yields from forested coastal watersheds, show how recent wildfire disturbance influences phosphorus and sediment delivery to streams, and how sediment delivery to streams is also sensitive to the intensity of cattle grazing. The results from this study could complement research and inform water-quality management activities in the Pacific region. Examples might include identifying potentially impaired waterbodies and guiding remediation efforts where impairment has been documented, explaining the spatial patterns in harmful algal blooms, and providing estimates of sediment and nutrient loadings to Pacific coast estuaries where such data are scarce or non-existent.

Pacific Region↗

Island characteristics within wetlands influence waterbird nest success and abundance

Coastal waterbird populations are threatened by habitat loss and degradation from urban and agricultural development and forecasted sea level rise associated with climate change. Remaining wetlands often must be managed to ensure that waterbird habitat needs, and other ecosystem functions, are met. For many waterbirds, the availability of island nesting habitat is important for conserving breeding populations. We used linear mixed models to investigate the influence of pond and island landscape characteristics on nest abundance and nest success of American avocets ( Recurvirostra americana ), black-necked stilts ( Himantopus mexicanus ), and Forster's terns ( Sterna forsteri ) in San Francisco Bay, California, USA, based on a 9-year dataset that included >9,000 nests. Nest abundance and nest success were greatest within ponds and on individual islands located either <1&thinsp;km or >4&thinsp;km from San Francisco Bay. Further, nest abundance was greater within ponds with relatively few islands, and on linear-shaped, highly elongated islands compared to more rounded islands. Nest success was greater on islands located away from the nearest surrounding pond levee. Compared to more rounded islands, linear islands contained more near-water habitat preferred by many nesting waterbirds. Islands located away from pond levees may provide greater protection from terrestrial egg and chick predators. Our results indicate that creating and maintaining a few, relatively small, highly elongated and narrow islands away from mainland levees, in as many wetland ponds as possible would be effective at providing waterbirds with preferred nesting habitat.

California↗

Dermal denticle assemblages in coral reef sediments correlate with conventional shark surveys

1. It is challenging to assess long-term trends in mobile, long-lived, and relatively rare species such as sharks. Despite ongoing declines in many coastal shark populations, conventional surveys might be too fleeting and too recent to describe population trends over decades to millennia. Placing recent shark declines into historical context should improve management efforts as well as our understanding of past ecosystem dynamics. 2. A new paleoecological approach for surveying shark abundance on coral reefs is to quantify dermal denticle assemblages preserved in sediments. This approach assumes that denticle accumulation rates correlate with shark abundances. Here, we test this assumption by comparing the denticle record in surface sediments to three conventional shark survey methods at Palmyra Atoll, Line Islands, central Pacific Ocean, where shark density is high and spatially heterogeneous. 3. We generally found a significant positive correlation between denticle accumulation rates and shark abundances derived from underwater visual census, baited remote underwater video, and hook and line surveys. 4. Denticle accumulation rates reflected shark abundances, suggesting that denticle assemblages can preserve a signal of time-averaged shark abundance in low-energy coral reef environments. We offer suggestions for applying this tool to measure shark abundance over long timescales in other contexts.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

Hourly analyses of the large storms and atmospheric rivers that provide most of California's precipitation in only 10 to 100 hours per year

California is regularly impacted by floods and droughts, primarily as a result of too many or too few atmospheric rivers (ARs). This study analyzes a two-decade-long hourly precipitation dataset from 176 California weather stations and a 3-hourly AR chronology to report variations in rainfall events across California and their association with ARs. On average, 10-40 and 60-120 hours of rainfall in southern and northern California, respectively, are responsible for more than half of annual rainfall accumulations. Approximately 10-30% of annual precipitation at locations across the state is from only one large storm. On average, northern California receives 25-45 rainfall events annually (40-50% of which are AR-related). These events typically have longer durations and higher event-precipitation totals than those in southern California. Northern California also receives more AR landfalls with longer durations and stronger Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT). On average, ARs contribute 79%, 76%, and 68% of extreme-rainfall accumulations (i.e., top 5% events annually) in the north coast, northern Sierra, and Transverse Ranges of southern California, respectively. The San Francisco Bay Area terrain gap in the California Coast Range allows more AR water vapor to reach inland over the Delta and Sacramento Valley, and thus, influences precipitation in the Delta’s catchment. This is particularly important for extreme precipitation in the northern Sierra Nevada, including river basins above Oroville Dam and Shasta Dam. This study highlights differences between rainfall and AR characteristics in coastal versus inland northern California, differences that largely determine the regional geography of flood risks and water-reliability. These analyses support water resource, flood, levee, wetland, and ecosystem management within the catchment of the San Francisco estuary system by describing regional characteristics of ARs and their influence on rainfall on an hourly timescale.

California↗