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USGS2007

Science and the storms: The USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

This report is designed to give a view of the immediate response of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to four major hurricanes of 2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Some of this response took place days after the hurricanes; other responses included fieldwork and analysis through the spring. While hurricane science continues within the USGS, this overview of work following these hurricanes reveals how a Department of the Interior bureau quickly brought together a diverse array of its scientists and technologies to assess and analyze many hurricane effects. Topics vary from flooding and water quality to landscape and ecosystem impacts, from geotechnical reconnaissance to analyzing the collapse of bridges and estimating the volume of debris. Thus, the purpose of this report is to inform the American people of the USGS science that is available and ongoing in regard to hurricanes. It is the hope that such science will help inform the decisions of those citizens and officials tasked with coastal restoration and planning for future hurricanes. Chapter 1 is an essay establishing the need for science in building a resilient coast. The second chapter includes some hurricane facts that provide hurricane terminology, history, and maps of the four hurricanes’ paths. Chapters that follow give the scientific response of USGS to the storms. Both English and metric measurements are used in the articles in anticipation of both general and scientific audiences in the United States and elsewhere. Chapter 8 is a compilation of relevant ongoing and future hurricane work. The epilogue marks the 2-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. An index of authors follows the report to aid in finding articles that are cross-referenced within the report. In addition to performing the science needed to understand the effects of hurricanes, USGS employees helped in the rescue of citizens by boat and through technology by “geoaddressing” 911 calls after Katrina and Rita so that other rescuers could find persons trapped in attics and porches. They also delivered food and water to residents stranded along the lower Mississippi River for several days. That work is reported in chapter 3 of this volume. A great number of scientists contributed to this peer-reviewed report designed for a general audience. Because they work for USGS—an unbiased, multidisciplinary science organization that focuses on biology, geography, geology, geospatial information, and water—they are dedicated to the timely, relevant, and impartial study of the landscape and natural resources of the Nation, as well as natural hazards, like hurricanes, that threaten the Nation. To learn more about their work, visit the USGS Web site (www.usgs.gov).

Circular↗
USGS2011

Setting limits: Using air pollution thresholds to protect and restore U.S. ecosystems

More than four decades of research provide unequivocal evidence that sulfur, nitrogen, and mercury pollution have altered, and will continue to alter, our nation's lands and waters. The emission and deposition of air pollutants harm native plants and animals, degrade water quality, affect forest productivity, and are damaging to human health. Many air quality policies limit emissions at the source but these control measures do not always consider ecosystem impacts. Air pollution thresholds at which ecological effects are observed, such as critical loads, are effective tools for assessing the impacts of air pollution on essential ecosystem services and for informing public policy. U.S. ecosystems can be more effectively protected and restored by using a combination of emissions-based approaches and science-based thresholds of ecosystem damage. Based on the results of a comprehensive review of air pollution thresholds, we conclude: ??? Ecosystem services such as air and water purification, decomposition and detoxification of waste materials, climate regulation, regeneration of soil fertility, production and biodiversity maintenance, as well as crop, timber and fish supplies are impacted by deposition of nitrogen, sulfur, mercury and other pollutants. The consequences of these changes may be difficult or impossible to reverse as impacts cascade throughout affected ecosystems. ??? The effects of too much nitrogen are common across the U.S. and include altered plant and lichen communities, enhanced growth of invasive species, eutrophication and acidification of lands and waters, and habitat deterioration for native species, including endangered species. ??? Lake, stream and soil acidification is widespread across the eastern United States. Up to 65% of lakes within sensitive areas receive acid deposition that exceeds critical loads. ??? Mercury contamination adversely affects fish in many inland and coastal waters. Fish consumption advisories for mercury exist in all 50 states and on many tribal lands. High concentrations of mercury in wildlife are also widespread and have multiple adverse effects. ??? Air quality programs, such as those stemming from the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, have helped decrease air pollution even as population and energy demand have increased. Yet, they do not adequately protect ecosystems from long-term damage. Moreover they do not address ammonia emissions. ??? A stronger ecosystem basis for air pollutant policies could be established through adoption of science-based thresholds. Existing monitoring programs track vital information needed to measure the response to policies, and could be expanded to include appropriate chemical and biological indicators for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and establishment of a national ecosystem monitoring network for mercury. The development and use of air pollution thresholds for ecosystem protection and management is increasing in the United States, yet threshold approaches remain underutilized. Ecological thresholds for air pollution, such as critical loads for nitrogen and sulfur deposition, are not currently included in the formal regulatory process for emissions controls in the United States, although they are now considered in local management decisions by the National Park Service and U.S. Forest Service. Ecological thresholds offer a scientifically sound approach to protecting and restoring U.S. ecosystems and an important tool for natural resource management and policy. ?? The Ecological Society of America.

Issues in Ecology↗
USGS2016

Establishing links between streamflow and ecological integrity in the Sudbury River (Northeastern U.S.)

With increased pressure from a growing human population, managers are challenged to understand how novel disturbances (e.g., climate change, increased water withdrawals, urbanization) may affect natural resources. The Sudbury River is a National Wild and Scenic River located in suburban Boston, Massachusetts (Northeastern US) with myriad impairments (e.g., mainstem impoundments, withdrawals, and urbanization) that is under increasing pressure from hydrologic alteration. We sampled fish, mussel, and macroinvertebrate assemblages in the Sudbury River and used species traits to investigate potential effects of past and future flow alteration on biota. Analysis of 33 years of stream gage data indicates continued hydrologic alteration of the Sudbury River, likely related to increased urbanization and water withdrawals over that time. These changes include a roughly 200% increase in rise rates of flows, an approximate 65% decrease in 1-day minimum flows, and a trend towards increasing high flow pulse counts. Biotic sampling in summer of 2014 demonstrated that the Sudbury River is now dominated by generalist species. Of five mussel species sampled, all are generalists in their habitat requirements. Though one mussel species of special concern was sampled, the most abundant species collected were the widespread Eastern elliptio (58%) and Eastern lampmussel (40%). We used the target fish community (TFC) model to assess the degree to which the fish assemblage deviated from that expected for a river with similar zoogeographic and physical features. Overall, the current community has a 22.7% similarity to the TFC. Of the four fluvial specialist species present in the TFC, only fallfish was sampled in our study. While the TFC showed that the historical assemblage was likely dominated by fluvial specialist and fluvial dependent species, the current assemblage is overwhelmingly dominated by macrohabitat generalists (90.6% of fishes sampled). These results are consistent with other studies that show shifts in assemblages from fluvial specialists to habitat generalists with hydrologic alteration. If the current trends continue, it is likely that biotic assemblages will experience increasing pressure from hydrologic alteration. While hydrologic alteration is likely impacting biotic assemblages in the Sudbury River, other factors such as high temperatures, low dissolved oxygen, high nutrients, low availability of high-quality habitat, and poor habitat connectivity may also be negatively impacting biotic assemblages. Comparisons to other rivers and a complete longitudinal habitat survey could help to identify availability of unique habitats and representativeness of this study. While this study suggests impacts of flow on biota, future studies with quantitative, habitat-specific sampling during different flow levels could help to directly identify links between hydrologic alteration and biotic impairment in the Sudbury River.

Massachussetts↗
USGS2000

Estimating the theoretical semivariogram from finite numbers of measurements

We investigate from a theoretical basis the impacts of the number, location, and correlation among measurement points on the quality of an estimate of the semivariogram. The unbiased nature of the semivariogram estimator ŷ ( r ) is first established for a general random process Z( x ). The variance of ŷ Z ( r ) is then derived as a function of the sampling parameters (the number of measurements and their locations). In applying this function to the case of estimating the semivariograms of the transmissivity and the hydraulic head field, it is shown that the estimation error depends on the number of the data pairs, the correlation among the data pairs (which, in turn, are determined by the form of the underlying semivariogram γ( r )), the relative locations of the data pairs, and the separation distance at which the semivariogram is to be estimated. Thus design of an optimal sampling program for semivariogram estimation should include consideration of each of these factors. Further, the function derived for the variance of ŷ Z ( r ) is useful in determining the reliability of a semivariogram developed from a previously established sampling design.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

Groundwater contaminant plume maps and volumes, 100-K and 100-N Areas, Hanford Site, Washington

This study provides an independent estimate of the areal and volumetric extent of groundwater contaminant plumes which are affected by waste disposal in the 100-K and 100-N Areas (study area) along the Columbia River Corridor of the Hanford Site. The Hanford Natural Resource Trustee Council requested that the U.S. Geological Survey perform this interpolation to assess the accuracy of delineations previously conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in order to assure that the Natural Resource Damage Assessment could rely on these analyses. This study is based on previously existing chemical (or radionuclide) sampling and analysis data downloaded from publicly available Hanford Site Internet sources, geostatistically selected and interpreted as representative of current (from 2009 through part of 2012) but average conditions for groundwater contamination in the study area. The study is limited in scope to five contaminants—hexavalent chromium, tritium, nitrate, strontium-90, and carbon-14, all detected at concentrations greater than regulatory limits in the past. All recent analytical concentrations (or activities) for each contaminant, adjusted for radioactive decay, non-detections, and co-located wells, were converted to log-normal distributions and these transformed values were averaged for each well location. The log-normally linearized well averages were spatially interpolated on a 50 × 50-meter (m) grid extending across the combined 100-N and 100-K Areas study area but limited to avoid unrepresentative extrapolation, using the minimum curvature geostatistical interpolation method provided by SURFER ® data analysis software. Plume extents were interpreted by interpolating the log-normally transformed data, again using SURFER ® , along lines of equal contaminant concentration at an appropriate established regulatory concentration . Total areas for each plume were calculated as an indicator of relative environmental damage. These plume extents are shown graphically and in tabular form for comparison to previous estimates. Plume data also were interpolated to a finer grid (10 × 10 m) for some processing, particularly to estimate volumes of contaminated groundwater. However, hydrogeologic transport modeling was not considered for the interpolation. The compilation of plume extents for each contaminant also allowed estimates of overlap of the plumes or areas with more than one contaminant above regulatory standards. A mapping of saturated aquifer thickness also was derived across the 100-K and 100–N study area, based on the vertical difference between the groundwater level (water table) at the top and the altitude of the top of the Ringold Upper Mud geologic unit, considered the bottom of the uppermost unconfined aquifer. Saturated thickness was calculated for each cell in the finer (10 × 10 m) grid. The summation of the cells’ saturated thickness values within each polygon of plume regulatory exceedance provided an estimate of the total volume of contaminated aquifer, and the results also were checked using a SURFER ® volumetric integration procedure. The total volume of contaminated groundwater in each plume was derived by multiplying the aquifer saturated thickness volume by a locally representative value of porosity (0.3). Estimates of the uncertainty of the plume delineation also are presented. “Upper limit” plume delineations were calculated for each contaminant using the same procedure as the “average” plume extent except with values at each well that are set at a 95-percent upper confidence limit around the log-normally transformed mean concentrations, based on the standard error for the distribution of the mean value in that well; “lower limit” plumes are calculated at a 5-percent confidence limit around the geometric mean. These upper- and lower-limit estimates are considered unrealistic because the statistics were increased or decreased at each well simultaneously and were not adjusted for correlation among the well distributions (i.e., it is not realistic that all wells would be high simultaneously). Sources of the variability in the distributions used in the upper- and lower-extent maps include time varying concentrations and analytical errors. The plume delineations developed in this study are similar to the previous plume descriptions developed by U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. The differences are primarily due to data selection and interpolation methodology. The differences in delineated plumes are not sufficient to result in the Hanford Natural Resource Trustee Council adjusting its understandings of contaminant impact or remediation.

Washington↗
USGS2024

Declining ecological resilience and invasion resistance under climate change in the sagebrush region, United States

In water-limited dryland ecosystems of the Western United States, climate change is intensifying the impacts of heat, drought, and wildfire. Disturbances often lead to increased abundance of invasive species, in part, because dryland restoration and rehabilitation are inhibited by limited moisture and infrequent plant recruitment events. Information on ecological resilience to disturbance (recovery potential) and resistance to invasive species can aid in addressing these challenges by informing long-term restoration and conservation planning. Here, we quantified the impacts of projected future climate on ecological resilience and invasion resistance (R&R) in the sagebrush region using novel algorithms based on ecologically relevant and climate-sensitive predictors of climate and ecological drought. We used a process-based ecohydrological model to project these predictor variables and resulting R&R indicators for two future climate scenarios and 20 climate models. Results suggested widespread future R&R decreases (24%–34% of the 1.16 million km 2 study area) that are generally consistent among climate models. Variables related to rising temperatures were most strongly linked to decreases in R&R indicators. New continuous R&R indices quantified responses to climate change; particularly useful for areas without projected change in the R&R category but where R&R still may decrease, for example, some of the areas with a historically low R&R category. Additionally, we found that areas currently characterized as having high sagebrush ecological integrity had the largest areal percentage with expected declines in R&R in the future, suggesting continuing declines in sagebrush ecosystems. One limitation of these R&R projections was relatively novel future climatic conditions in particularly hot and dry areas that were underrepresented in the training data. Including more data from these areas in future updates could further improve the reliability of the projections. Overall, these projected future declines in R&R highlight a growing challenge for natural resource managers in the region, and the resulting spatially explicit datasets provide information that can improve long-term risk assessments, prioritizations, and climate adaptation efforts.

western United States↗
USGS2009

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Advances in Water Resources↗
USGS2022

Assessment of streamflow trends in the eastern Dakotas, water years 1960–2019

Hydrologic extremes, whether periods of drought or flooding, are occurring more frequently with greater severity and can have substantial economic impacts. Along with flooding, the timing and volume of streamflow also is changing across the United States. The focus of this report is to characterize a unique trend in mean annual streamflow occurring in eastern North and South Dakota, hereafter referred to as the eastern Dakotas, that is not being observed anywhere else in the conterminous United States. Streamflow records for 1,853 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System database with a continuous record of mean annual streamflow during water years 1960–2019 were included in this study. Using a Kendall tau statistical test ( p -value less than or equal to 0.10), 573 streamgages had a statistically significant upward trend in mean annual streamflow and are primarily located in the Midwest and northeastern United States. Of the streamgages, 182 had a statistically significant downward trend and are located primarily in the western and southeastern States. Several sites had increases in streamflow between 100 and 500 percent. Most of the streamgages with the highest increases in mean annual streamflow are along the same rivers in the eastern Dakotas, regardless of basin size. A comparison of mean annual streamflow of the last decade (2010–19) to the first decade (1960–69) of the study period shows that the largest increases in annual streamflow volumes in the United States also are in the eastern Dakotas. Among all 1,853 streamgages in the United States, the Sheyenne River near Warwick, North Dakota (U.S. Geological Survey station 05056000), has the greatest percent change, with an increase of 486 percent. Several factors may be contributing to increasing trends in streamflow in the eastern Dakotas and may include, in part, precipitation changes owing to climatic variation within the region, geologic makeup of the subsurface, and land-use changes. A better understanding of these research areas will help producers, resource managers, and infrastructure engineers to make more informed environmental and economic decisions.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2021

Oil and gas wastewater components alter streambed microbial community structure and function

The widespread application of directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies expanded oil and gas (OG) development to previously inaccessible resources. A single OG well can generate millions of liters of wastewater, which is a mixture of brine produced from the fractured formations and injected hydraulic fracturing fluids (HFFs). With thousands of wells completed each year, safe management of OG wastewaters has become a major challenge to the industry and regulators. OG wastewaters are commonly disposed of by underground injection, and previous research showed that surface activities at an Underground Injection Control (UIC) facility in West Virginia affected stream biogeochemistry and sediment microbial communities immediately downstream from the facility. Because microbially driven processes can control the fate and transport of organic and inorganic components of OG wastewater, we designed a series of aerobic microcosm experiments to assess the influence of high total dissolved solids (TDS) and two common HFF additives—the biocide 2,2-dibromo-3-nitrilopropionamide (DBNPA) and ethylene glycol (an anti-scaling additive)—on microbial community structure and function. Microcosms were constructed with sediment collected upstream (background) or downstream (impacted) from the UIC facility in West Virginia. Exposure to elevated TDS resulted in a significant decrease in aerobic respiration, and microbial community analysis following incubation indicated that elevated TDS could be linked to the majority of change in community structure. Over the course of the incubation, the sediment layer in the microcosms became anoxic, and addition of DBNPA was observed to inhibit iron reduction. In general, disruptions to microbial community structure and function were more pronounced in upstream and background sediment microcosms than in impacted sediment microcosms. These results suggest that the microbial community in impacted sediments had adapted following exposure to OG wastewater releases from the site. Our findings demonstrate the potential for releases from an OG wastewater disposal facility to alter microbial communities and biogeochemical processes. We anticipate that these studies will aid in the development of useful models for the potential impact of UIC disposal facilities on adjoining surface water and shallow groundwater.

Frontiers in Microbiology↗
USGS1980

Appraisal of ground-water resources in the San Antonio Creek Valley, Santa Barbara County, California

A nearly threefold increase in demand for water in the 154-square-mile San Antonio Creek valley in California during the period 1958-77 has increased the potential for overdraft on the ground-water basin. The hydrologic budget for this period showed a perennial yield of about 9,800 acre-feet per year and an annual ground-water discharge of about 11,400 acre-feet per year, comprising net pumpage of 7,100 acre-feet, phreatophyte evapotranspiration of 3,000 acre-feet, and base streamflow of 1 ,300 acre-feet. The base flow in San Antonio Creek could diminish to zero when net pumpage reaches 13,500 acre-feet per year. The environmentally sensitive marshland area of Barka Slough may then become stressed as water normally lost through evapotranspiration is captured by pumpage. The aquifer consists of alluvial valley fill that ranges in thickness from 0 to 3,500 feet. Ground water moves seaward from recharge areas along mountain fronts to a consolidated rock barrier about 5 miles east of the Pacific coast. Upwelling of ground water just east of the barrier has resulted in the 550-acre Barka Slough. Transmissivity of the aquifer ranges from 2,600 to 34,000 feet squared per day, with the lowest values occurring in the central part of the valley where the aquifer is thickest but probably finer grained. The salinity problems are increasing in the agricultural parts of the valley, which is east of the barrier. West of the barrier, stream and ground-water quality is poor, owing to seepage of saline water from the marine shale that underlies the area at shallow depths. A proposed basinwide monitoring program includes 17 water-level sites, 12 water-quality sampling sites, 3 streamflow measuring sites, and periodic infrared aerial photography of Barka Slough. A computer model of the ground-water flow system could be developed to assess the impact of various water-management alternatives.

California↗
USGS2011

Impacts of Land-Cover Change on Suspended Sediment Transport in Two Agricultural Watersheds

Suspended sediment is a major water quality problem, yet few monitoring studies have been of sufficient scale and duration to assess the effectiveness of land-use change or conservation practice implementation at a watershed scale. Daily discharge and suspended sediment export from two 5,000-ha watersheds in central Iowa were monitored over a 10-year period (water years 1996-2005). In Walnut Creek watershed, a large portion of land was converted from row crop to native prairie, whereas in Squaw Creek land use remained predominantly row crop agriculture. Suspended sediment loads were similar in both watersheds, exhibiting flashy behavior typical of incised channels. Modeling suggested that expected total soil erosion in Walnut Creek should have been reduced 46% relative to Squaw Creek due to changes in land use, yet measured suspended sediment loads showed no significant differences. Stream mapping indicated that Walnut Creek had three times more eroding streambank lengths than did Squaw Creek suggesting that streambank erosion dominated sediment sources in Walnut Creek and sheet and rill sources dominated sediment sources in Squaw Creek. Our results demonstrate that an accounting of all sources of sediment erosion and delivery is needed to characterize sediment reductions in watershed projects combined with long-term, intensive monitoring and modeling to account for possible lag times in the manifestation of the benefits of conservation practices on water quality.

Iowa↗
USGS2017

Hydrogeologic framework and hydrologic conditions of the Piney Point aquifer in Virginia

The Piney Point aquifer in Virginia is newly described and delineated as being composed of six geologic units, in a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VA DEQ). The eastward-dipping geologic units include, in stratigraphically ascending order, the sand of the Nanjemoy Formation Woodstock Member, interbedded limestone and sand of the Piney Point Formation, silty and clayey sand of the Gosport Formation equivalent sediments, silty sand of the Oligocene-age sediments, silty fine-grained sand of the Old Church Formation, and silty sand of the Calvert Formation, Newport News unit and basal Plum Point Member. Identification of geologic units is based on typical sediment lithologies of geologic formations. Fine-grained sediments that compose confining units positioned immediately above and below the Piney Point aquifer are also described. The Piney Point aquifer is one of several confined aquifers within the Virginia Coastal Plain and includes a highly porous and solution-channeled indurated limestone within the Piney Point Formation from which withdrawals are made. The limestone is relatively continuous laterally across central parts of the Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, and York-James Peninsula. Other geologic units are of variable extent. The configurations of most of the geologic units are further affected by newly identified faults that are aligned radially from the Chesapeake Bay impact crater and create constrictions or barriers to groundwater flow. Some geologic units are also truncated beneath the lower Rappahannock River by a resurge channel associated with the impact crater. Groundwater withdrawals from the Piney Point aquifer increased from approximately 1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) during 1900 to 7.35 Mgal/d during 2004. As a result, a water-level cone of depression in James City and northern York Counties was estimated to be as low as 70 feet (ft) below the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29) by 2005. Withdrawals decreased to 5.01 Mgal/d by 2009 as withdrawals were shifted toward other sources, and by 2015 water levels had recovered to approximately 50 ft below NGVD 29. The mean estimated transmissivity of the Piney Point aquifer in York and James City Counties is 16,300 feet squared per day (ft 2 /d), but farther north it is only 925 ft 2 /d. The mean well specific capacity in York and James City Counties is 11.4 gallons per minute per foot (gal/min/ft). Farther north in Virginia, mean specific capacity is only 2.26 gal/min/ft, and in Maryland it is 0.99 gal/min/ft. The northward decrease in specific capacity probably reflects the northward decrease in transmissivity, which results from poor development of the solution-channeled limestone. An aquifer test in northern York County induced vertical leakage to the solution-channeled limestone from overlying silty sand and a change in response of the aquifer to pumping from a single layer to two layers. Transmissivity of the limestone of approximately 19,800 ft 2 /d was distinguished from the silty sand of approximately 2,500 ft 2 /d. Most of the water in the Piney Point aquifer is slightly alkaline with moderate concentrations primarily of sodium and bicarbonate that are slightly undersaturated with respect to calcite. Iron concentrations are generally less than 0.3 milligrams per liter (mg/L). Mixing of freshwater with seawater has elevated chloride concentrations to the southeast to as much as 7,120 mg/L. Information on the Piney Point aquifer can benefit water-resource management in siting production wells, predicting likely well yield, and anticipating water-level response to withdrawals. Models that vertically discretize individual geologic units can potentially be used to evaluate groundwater flow in greater detail by representing lateral flow and vertical leakage among the geologic units. Because groundwater withdrawals are made primarily from the limestone and sand of the Piney Point Formation, the VA DEQ has considered regarding the limestone and sand singly as a regulated aquifer apart from the other geologic units. Under current policy in Virginia, if only the limestone and sand were regarded as a regulated aquifer, a greater amount of drawdown would be allowed than is allowed for the Piney Point aquifer consisting of six geologic units. Some production wells intercept multiple geologic units, and the units can undergo water-level decline and vertical leakage induced by pumping from the limestone and sand. Whether the other geologic units are to be regarded as regulated aquifers is an additional consideration for the VA DEQ.

Virginia↗
USGS2022

Integrated modeling of dynamic marsh feedbacks and evolution under sea-level rise in a mesotidal estuary (Plum Island, MA, USA)

Around the world, wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise (SLR) depends on different factors including tidal regimes, topography, creeks and estuary geometry, sediment availability, vegetation type, etc. The Plum Island estuary (PIE) is a mesotidal wetland system on the east coast of the United States. This research applied a newly updated Hydro-MEM (integrated hydrodynamic-marsh) model to assess the impacts of intermediate-low (50 cm), intermediate (1 m), and intermediate-high (1.5 m) SLR on marsh evolution by the year 2100. Model advancements include capturing vegetation change, inorganic and below and aboveground organic matter portion of marsh platform accretion, and mudflat creation. Although the results indicate a low vulnerability marsh at the PIE, the vegetation changes from high to low marsh under all SLR scenarios (2%–22%), with the higher bounds belonging to higher rise scenarios. Lower SLR produces more productive marsh (13% gain in high productivity regions), whereas the highest SLR scenario causes increased tidal inundation, which leads to loss in productivity (12% change from high to low productivity regions), generation of mudflats (17% of the domain land), and marsh migration to higher lands. Sensitive nonlinear tidal flow changes, which may be increased or decreased with SLR as a result of mudflat creation, marsh migration, and bottom friction change, emphasize the importance of integrated modeling approaches that include dynamic marsh feedbacks in hydrodynamic modeling and varying hydrodynamic effects on the marsh system.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2021

Quantifying the response of nitrogen speciation to hydrology in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using a multilevel modeling approach

Excessive nitrogen (N) inputs to coastal waters can lead to severe eutrophication and different chemical forms of N exhibit varying levels of effectiveness in fueling primary production. Efforts to mitigate N fluxes from coastal watersheds are often guided by models that predict changes in N loads as a function of changes in land use, management practices, and climate. However, relatively little is known on the impacts of such changes on the relative fractions of different N forms. We leveraged a long-term dataset of N loads from over 100 river stations to investigate how the fraction, that is, the ratio of to total N ( /TN), changes as a function of spatio-temporal changes in TN loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. We built a hierarchical model that separates the response of to changes in TN load occurring at different scales: Across river stations, where differences in TN loads are largely driven by spatial differences in anthropogenic inputs, and within stations, where inter-annual variability in hydrology is a key driver of changes in TN loads. Results suggest that while increases in TN loads resulting from changes in anthropogenic inputs lead to an increase in the fraction, a decrease in the fraction may occur when increases in TN loads are driven by increased streamflow. These results are especially relevant in watersheds that may experience changes in N loads due to both management decisions and climate-driven changes in hydrology.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2004

Reconnaissance of chemical and biological quality in the Owyhee River from the Oregon State line to the Owyhee Reservoir, Oregon, 2001–02

The Owyhee River drains an extremely rugged and sparsely populated landscape in northern Nevada, southwestern Idaho, and eastern Oregon. Most of the segment between the Oregon State line and Lake Owyhee is part of the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System, and few water-quality data exist for evaluating environmental impacts. As a result, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, assessed this river segment to characterize chemical and biological quality of the river, identify where designated beneficial uses are met and where changes in stream quality occur, and provide data needed to address activities related to environmental impact assessments and Total Maximum Daily Loads. Water-quality issues identified at one or more sites were water temperature, suspended sediment, dissolved oxygen, pH, nutrients, trace elements, fecal bacteria, benthic invertebrate communities, and periphyton communities. Generally, summer water temperatures routinely exceeded Oregon's maximum 7-day average criteria of 17.8 degrees Celsius. The presence of few coldwater taxa in benthic invertebrate communities supports this observation. Suspended-sediment concentrations during summer base flow were less than 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L). Dissolved solids concentrations ranged from 46 to 222 mg/L, were highest during base flow, and tended to increase in a downstream direction. Chemical compositions of water samples indicated that large proportions of upland-derived water extend to the lower reaches of the study area during spring runoff. Dissolved fluoride and arsenic concentrations were highest during base flow and may be a result of geothermal springs discharging to the river. No dissolved selenium was detected. Upstream from the Rome area, spring runoff concentrations of suspended sediment ranged from 0 to 52 mg/L, and all except at the Three Forks site were typically below 20 mg/L. Stream-bottom materials from the North Fork Owyhee River, an area with no mines, were enriched with nine trace elements, which indicates that this basin may be a natural source of these elements. Near Rome, the part of the study area not included in the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System, land-use impacts resulted in elevated populations of Escherichia coli bacteria ( E. coli ) during base flow and elevated concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus during spring runoff. Sites in this area had the highest numbers of benthic invertebrates; the fewest Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa; and the highest Hilsenhoff Biotic Index scores. These results suggest degraded stream quality. Periphyton communities at sites in this area approached nuisance levels and could cause significant dissolved oxygen depletions and pH values that exceed Oregon's recommended criteria. Stream-bottom materials from Jordan Creek were enriched with mercury and manganese, which probably were ultimately caused by past mining in that basin. Below Crooked Creek, elevated suspended sediment concentrations (142 mg/L), phosphorus concentrations (0.23 mg/L), and E. coli populations (370 most probable number per 100 milliliters) during the largest spring runoff event could be the result of inputs at the lower end of Jordan Valley and (or) inputs from Crooked Creek. The New Zealand Mud Snail, a highly competitive gastropod introduced to the Snake River in the 1980s, was collected just downstream from the Crooked Creek confluence.

Idaho;Nevada;Oregon↗
USGS2021

Seasonality of solute flux and water source chemistry in a coastal glacierized watershed undergoing rapid change: Wolverine Glacier watershed, Alaska

As glaciers around the world rapidly lose mass, the tight coupling between glaciers and downstream ecosystems is resulting in widespread impacts on global hydrologic and biogeochemical cycling. However, a range of challenges make it difficult to conduct research in glacierized systems and our knowledge of seasonally changing hydrologic processes and solute sources and signatures is limited. This in turn hampers our ability to make predictions on solute composition and flux. We conducted a broad water sampling campaign in order to understand the present-day partitioning of water sources and associated solutes in Alaska’s Wolverine Glacier watershed. We established a relationship between electrical conductivity (EC) and streamflow at the watershed outlet to divide the melt season into four hydroclimatic periods. Across hydroclimatic periods, we observed a shift in off-glacier source waters from snowmelt-dominated overland and shallow subsurface flow paths to deeper groundwater flow paths. We also observed the shift from a low- to high-efficiency subglacial drainage network and the associated flushing of water stored sub-glacially with higher solute loads. We used calcium, the dominant dissolved ion, from watershed outlet samples to estimate solute fluxes for each hydroclimatic period across two melt seasons. We found between 40 and 55 percent of Ca2+ export occurred during the late season rainy period. This partitioning of the melt season coupled with a characterization of the chemical makeup and magnitude of solute export provides new insight into a rapidly changing watershed and creates a framework to quantify and predict changes to solute fluxes across a melt season.

Alaska↗
USGS2010

Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying climate conditions

The relative impact of a large upstream dam versus in‐reach groundwater pumping on stream temperatures was analyzed for humid, semiarid, and arid conditions with long dry seasons to represent typical climate regions where large dams are present, such as the western United States or eastern Australia. Stream temperatures were simulated using the CE‐QUAL‐W2 water quality model over a 110 km model grid, with the presence or absence of a dam at the top of the reach and pumping in the lower 60 km of the reach. Measured meteorological data from three representative locations were used as model input to simulate the impact of varying climate conditions on streamflow and stream temperature. For each climate condition four hypothetical streamflow scenarios were modeled: (1) natural (no dam or pumping), (2) large upstream dam present, (3) dam with in‐reach pumping, and (4) no dam with pumping, resulting in 12 cases. Dam removal, in the presence or absence of pumping, resulted in significant changes in stream temperature throughout the year for all three climate conditions. From March to August, the presence of a dam caused monthly mean stream temperatures to decrease on average by approximately 3.0°C, 2.5°C, and 2.0°C for the humid, semiarid, and arid conditions, respectively; however, stream temperatures generally increased from September to February. Pumping caused stream temperatures to warm in summer and cool in winter by generally less than 0.5°C because of a smaller pumping‐induced alteration in streamflow relative to the dam. Though the presence or absence of a large dam led to greater changes in stream temperature than the presence or absence of pumping, ephemeral conditions were increased both temporally and spatially because of pumping.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS1990

Geohydrologic characteristics and simulated response to pumping stresses in the Sparta aquifer in East-Central Arkansas

A finite difference digital model of the Sparta aquifer system in Arkansas was developed to aid in assessing the geohydrologic characteristics of the aquifer as well as the impact of withdrawals on water-level declines in the aquifer. The model consists of two layers. The Cockfield aquifer, represented by layer 1, was modeled as a constant head surface. The Sparta aquifer is represented by layer 2. The base of the Sparta aquifer was modeled as a no-flow boundary. The model boundaries to the north, south, and east in Mississippi were represented by specified heads, while boundaries to the west in Louisiana were represented as no flow. The model period of 1989 to 1985 was divided into 25 stress periods. Appropriate aquifer withdrawals were assigned to each stress period. Calibrated hydraulic conductivities of the Sparta aquifer, ranged from 1 to 35 ft/day. Calibrated hydraulic vertical conductivities of the Cook Mountain confining unit ranged from 0.0003 to 0.000009 ft/day. The calibrated storage coefficient of the aquifer was 0.0001. More than 80% of the recharge to the aquifer came from vertical leakage and from direct recharge on the outcrop. Greater than 90 % of outflow from the aquifer was from pumpage or leakage to rivers. Theoretical pumping schemes to the year 2005 indicated that virtually no change to the potentiometric surface occurred when 1985 pumping rates were extended to 2005. Doubling of pumpage over the entire study area resulted in additional water-level declines of up to 130 ft.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗