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The Interface Between Theory and Data in Structural Equation Models

Structural equation modeling (SEM) holds the promise of providing natural scientists the capacity to evaluate complex multivariate hypotheses about ecological systems. Building on its predecessors, path analysis and factor analysis, SEM allows for the incorporation of both observed and unobserved (latent) variables into theoretically based probabilistic models. In this paper we discuss the interface between theory and data in SEM and the use of an additional variable type, the composite, for representing general concepts. In simple terms, composite variables specify the influences of collections of other variables and can be helpful in modeling general relationships of the sort commonly of interest to ecologists. While long recognized as a potentially important element of SEM, composite variables have received very limited use, in part because of a lack of theoretical consideration, but also because of difficulties that arise in parameter estimation when using conventional solution procedures. In this paper we present a framework for discussing composites and demonstrate how the use of partially reduced form models can help to overcome some of the parameter estimation and evaluation problems associated with models containing composites. Diagnostic procedures for evaluating the most appropriate and effective use of composites are illustrated with an example from the ecological literature. It is argued that an ability to incorporate composite variables into structural equation models may be particularly valuable in the study of natural systems, where concepts are frequently multifaceted and the influences of suites of variables are often of interest.

Open-File Report↗

Geometrical analysis of structural data collected at high South latitude: A modular arithmetic method that addresses meridional convergence

The convergence of meridians toward the South Pole causes unique problems for geometrical comparison of structural geological and geophysical datasets from Antarctica. The true North reference direction ordinarily is used for measuring and reporting vector data (strike, trend) in Antarctica, as elsewhere. However, over a latitude distance of just 100 km at 85° South, the angular difference in the true North direction exceeds 10°. Consequently, when performing a regional tectonic analysis of vector data (strike, trend) for structures such as faults, dike arrays, or geophysical lineaments oriented with respect to North at different sites, it is necessary to rotate the data to a common reference direction. A modular arithmetic function, performed as a spreadsheet calculation, offers the means to unify data sets from sites having different longitude position, by rotation to a common reference direction. The function is S C ≡ S M + ∆L (mod 360), where SC = converted strike; SM = measured strike; ∆L = angle in degrees longitude between reference longitude and study site; and 360, the divisor, is the number of degrees in Earth’s circumference. The method is used to evaluate 1) paleomagnetic rotation of the Ellsworth-Whitmore Mountains with respect to the Transantarctic Mountains, and 2) orogenic curvature of the Ross Orogen

Open-File Report↗

Structure of the central Terror Rift, western Ross Sea, Antarctica

The Terror Rift is a zone of post-middle Miocene faulting and volcanism along the western margin of the West Antarctic Rift System. A new seismic data set from NSF geophysical cruise NBP04-01, integrated with the previous dataset to provide higher spatial resolution, has been interpreted in this study in order to improve understanding of the architecture and history of the Terror Rift. The Terror Rift contains two components, a structurally-controlled rollover anticlinal arch intruded by younger volcanic bodies and an associated synclinal basin. Offsets and trend changes in fault patterns have been identified, coincident with shifts in the location of depocenters that define rift sub-basins, indicating that the Terror Rift is segmented by transverse structures. Multiple phases of faulting all post-date 17 Ma, including faults cutting the seafloor surface, indicating Neogene rifting and possible modern activity.

Open-File Report↗

Shear wave structure of Umbria and Marche, Italy, strong motion seismometer sites Affected by the 1997-98 Umbria-Marche, Italy, earthquake sequence

A long sequence of earthquakes, eight with magnitudes between 5 and 6, struck the Umbria and Marche regions of central Italy between September 26, 1997 and July 1998. The earthquake swarm caused severe structural damage, particularly to masonry buildings, and resulted in the loss of twelve lives and about 150 injuries. The source of the events was a single seismogenic structure that consists of several faults with a prevailing northwest-southeast strike and crosses the Umbria-Marche border. The focal mechanism of the largest shocks indicates that the events were the product of shallow extensional normal faulting along a NE-SW extension perpendicular to the trend of the Apennines. The network of analog seismometer stations in the Umbria and Marche regions recorded motions of the main September and October 1997 events and a dense array of mobile digital stations, installed since September 29, recorded most of the swarm. The permanent national network Rete Accelerometrica Nazionale (RAN) is administered and maintained by Dipartimento delle Protezione Civile (DPC: Civil Protection Department); the temporary array was managed by Servizio Sismico Nazionale (SSN) in cooperation with small agencies and Universities. ENEA, the operator of many seismometer stations in Umbria, is the public Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment. Many of the temporary and permanent stations in the Italian seismic network have little or no characterization of seismic velocities. In this study, we investigated 17 Italian sites using an active-source approach that employs low frequency harmonic waves to measure the dispersive nature of surface waves in the ground. We used the Spectral Analysis of Surface Wave (SASW) approach, coupled with an array of harmonic-wave electro-mechanical sources that are driven in-phase to excite the ground. An inversion algorithm using a non-linear least-squares best-fit method is used to compute shear wave velocities for up to 100 meters of the soil column. A draft report was published in the summer of 2008, followed by a comment period, lengthy discussions with Italian colleagues, and improved knowledge of the subsurface at the sites from soil logs. Four of the sites were reprocessed in order to correct issues with phase unwrapping of the field dispersion curves that complicated the velocity profile calculations at the lowest velocity sites. This report presents the final results from the reprocessing effort.

Open-File Report↗

Molecular Population Genetic Structure in the Piping Plover

The Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) is a migratory shorebird currently listed as Endangered in Canada and the U.S. Great Lakes, and threatened throughout the remainder of its U.S. breeding and winter range. In this study, we undertook the first comprehensive molecular genetic-based investigation of Piping Plovers. Our primary goals were to (1) address higher level subspecific taxonomic issues, (2) characterize population genetic structure, and (3) make inferences regarding past bottlenecks or population expansions that have occurred within this species. Our analyses included samples of individuals from 23 U.S. States and Canadian Provinces, and were based on mitochondrial DNA sequences (580 bp, n = 245 individuals) and eight nuclear microsatellite loci (n = 229 individuals). Our findings illustrate strong support for separate Atlantic and Interior Piping Plover subspecies (C. m. melodus and C. m. circumcinctus, respectively). Birds from the Great Lakes region were allied with the Interior subspecies group and should be taxonomically referred to as C. m. circumcinctus. Population genetic analyses suggested that genetic structure was stronger among Atlantic birds relative to the Interior group. This pattern indicates that natal and breeding site fidelity may be reduced among Interior birds. Furthermore, analyses suggested that Interior birds have previously experienced genetic bottlenecks, whereas no evidence for such patterns existed among the Atlantic subspecies. Likewise, genetic analyses indicated that the Great Lakes region has experienced a population expansion. This finding may be interpreted as population growth following a previous bottleneck event. No genetic evidence for population expansions was found for Atlantic, Prairie Canada, or U.S. Northern Great Plains individuals. We interpret our population history insights in light of 25 years of Piping Plover census data. Overall, differences observed between Interior and Atlantic birds may reflect differences in spatiotemporal stability of Piping Plover nesting habitat between regions.

Open-File Report↗

Characterization of Geologic Structures and Host Rock Properties Relevant to the Hydrogeology of the Standard Mine in Elk Basin, Gunnison County, Colorado

The Standard Mine Superfund Site is a source of mine drainage and associated heavy metal contamination of surface and groundwaters. The site contains Tertiary polymetallic quartz veins and fault zones that host precious and base metal sulfide mineralization common in Colorado. To assist the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in its effort to remediate mine-related contamination, we characterized geologic structures, host rocks, and their potential hydraulic properties to better understand the sources of contaminants and the local hydrogeology. Real time kinematic and handheld global positioning systems were used to locate and map precisely the geometry of the surface traces of structures and mine-related features, such as portals. New reconnaissance geologic mapping, field and x-ray diffraction mineralogy, rock sample collection, thin-section analysis, and elemental geochemical analysis were completed to characterize hydrothermal alteration, mineralization, and subsequent leaching of metallic phases. Surface and subsurface observations, fault vein and fracture network characterization, borehole geophysical logging, and mercury injection capillary entry pressure data were used to document potential controls on the hydrologic system.

Open-File Report↗

Non-native fish control below Glen Canyon Dam - Report from a structured decision-making project

This report describes the results of a structured decision-making project by the U.S. Geological Survey to provide substantive input to the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) for use in the preparation of an Environmental Assessment concerning control of non-native fish below Glen Canyon Dam. A forum was created to allow the diverse cooperating agencies and Tribes to discuss, expand, and articulate their respective values; to develop and evaluate a broad set of potential control alternatives using the best available science; and to define individual preferences of each group on how to manage the inherent trade-offs in this non-native fish control problem. This project consisted of two face-to-face workshops, held in Mesa, Arizona, October 18-20 and November 8-10, 2010. At the first workshop, a diverse set of objectives was discussed, which represented the range of concerns of those agencies and Tribes present. A set of non-native fish control alternatives ('hybrid portfolios') was also developed. Over the 2-week period between the two workshops, four assessment teams worked to evaluate the control alternatives against the array of objectives. At the second workshop, the results of the assessment teams were presented. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods were used to examine the trade-offs inherent in the problem, and allowed the participating agencies and Tribes to express their individual judgments about how those trade-offs should best be managed in Reclamation`s selection of a preferred alternative. A broad array of objectives was identified and defined, and an effort was made to understand how these objectives are likely to be achieved by a variety of strategies. In general, the objectives reflected desired future conditions over 30 years. A rich set of alternative approaches was developed, and the complex structure of those alternatives was documented. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods allowed the evaluation of those alternatives against the array of objectives, with the values of individual agencies and tribes deliberately preserved. Trout removal strategies aimed at the Paria to Badger Rapid reach (PBR), with a variety of permutations in deference to cultural values, and with backup removal at the Little Colorado River reach (LCR) if necessary, were identified as top-ranking portfolios for all agencies and Tribes. These PBR/LCR removal portfolios outperformed LCR-only removal portfolios, for cultural reasons and for effectiveness - the probability of keeping the humpback chub population above a desired threshold was estimated to be higher under the PBR/LCR portfolios than the LCR-only portfolios. The PBR/LCR removal portfolios also outperformed portfolios based on flow manipulations, primarily because of the effect of sport fishery and wilderness recreation objectives, as well as cultural objectives. The preference for the PBR/LCR removal portfolios was quite robust to variation in the objective weights and to uncertainty about the underlying dynamics, at least over the ranges of uncertainty investigated. Examination of the effect of uncertainty on the recommended outcomes allowed us to complete a 'value of information' analysis. The results of this analysis led to an adaptive strategy that includes three possible long-term management actions (no action; LCR removal; or PBR removal) and seeks to reduce uncertainty about the following two issues: the degree to which rainbow trout limit chub populations, and the effectiveness of PBR removal to reduce trout emigration downstream into Marble and eastern Grand Canyons, where the largest population of humpback chub exist. In the face of uncertainty about the effectiveness of PBR removal, a case might be made for including flow manipulations in an adaptive strategy, but formal analysis of this case was not conducted. The full set of conclusions described above is not definitive, however. This analysis described in this report is a simplified depiction of the t

Open-File Report↗

Effects of catastrophic floods and debris flows on the sediment retention structure, North Fork Toutle River, Washington

The eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980 produced a debris avalanche that flowed down the upper reaches of the North Fork Toutle River in southwestern Washington, clogging this drainage with sediment. In response to continuous anomalously high sediment flux into the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers resulting from this avalanche and associated debris flows, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers completed a Sediment Retention Structure (SRS) on the North Fork Toutle River in May 1989. For one decade, the SRS effectively blocked most of the sediment transport down the Toutle River. In 1999, the sediment level behind the SRS reached the elevation of the spillway base. Since then, a higher percentage of sediment has been passing the SRS and increasing the flood risk in the Cowlitz River. Currently (2012), the dam is filling with sediment at a rate that cannot be sustained for its original design life, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is concerned with the current ability of the SRS to manage floods. This report presents an assessment of the ability of the dam to pass large flows from three types of scenarios (it is assumed that no damage to the spillway will occur). These scenarios are (1) a failure of the debris-avalanche blockage forming Castle Lake that produces a dambreak flood, (2) a debris flow from failure of that blockage, or (3) a debris flow originating in the crater of Mount St. Helens. In each case, the flows are routed down the Toutle River and through the SRS using numerical models on a gridded domain produced from a digital elevation model constructed with existing topography and dam infrastructure. The results of these simulations show that a structurally sound spillway is capable of passing large floods without risk of overtopping the crest of the dam. In addition, large debris flows originating from Castle Lake or the crater of Mount St. Helens never reach the SRS. Instead, debris flows fill the braided channels upstream of the dam and reduce its storage capacity.

Washington↗

Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) Vegetation Volume Index: An assessment tool for marsh habitat focused on the three-dimensional structure at CRMS vegetation monitoring stations

A Vegetation Volume (VV) variable and Vegetation Volume Index (VVI) have been developed for the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS). The VV is a measure of the amount of three-dimensional vegetative structure present at each CRMS site and is based on vegetation data collected annually. The VV uses 10 stations per CRMS site to quantify four vegetation layers: carpet, herbaceous, shrub, and tree. For each layer an overall live vegetation percent cover and height are collected to create a layer volume; the individual layer volumes are then summed to generate a site vegetation volume profile. The VV uses the two-dimensional area of live vegetative cover (in square meters) multiplied by the height (in meters) of each layer to produce a volume (in cubic meters) for each layer present in a 2-meter by 2-meter station. These layers are additive, yielding a total volume for each of the 10 herbaceous vegetation stations and an overall CRMS marsh site average. The VV is an assessment of the quantity of vegetation present and is directly related to plant community structure. The VV differs from the previously developed Floristic Quality Index (FQI) in that the VV makes no assumptions about vegetation quality, giving each species equal weight; the FQI scores species with consistent site fidelity more favorably. We adapted the VV data into the VVI, which creates a representative score for all coastal marsh types. A VV and VVI will be generated annually for CRMS site, project, and basin-level analysis. The index is designed to assess areas undergoing habitat conversion, creation, and disturbance and to document project effectiveness when goals are to create, increase, or maintain emergent vegetation. The VV and VVI will be used to establish trends, to make comparisons, and to evaluate restoration projects. Assessments that rely on the VVI will be included in appropriate Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act (CWPPRA) project reports and analyses. Implementation of the VVI will give coastal managers a new tool to design, implement, and monitor coastal restoration projects. A yearly trajectory of site, project, basin, and coastwide VVI will be posted on the CRMS Web site as data are collected. The primary purpose of the tool is to assess CWPPRA restoration project effectiveness, but it will also be useful in identifying areas in need of restoration and in coastwide vegetation assessments.

Louisiana↗

Bedrock morphology and structure, upper Santa Cruz Basin, south-central Arizona, with transient electromagnetic survey data

The upper Santa Cruz Basin is an important groundwater basin containing the regional aquifer for the city of Nogales, Arizona. This report provides data and interpretations of data aimed at better understanding the bedrock morphology and structure of the upper Santa Cruz Basin study area which encompasses the Rio Rico and Nogales 1:24,000-scale U.S. Geological Survey quadrangles. Data used in this report include the Arizona Aeromagnetic and Gravity Maps and Data referred to here as the 1996 Patagonia Aeromagnetic survey, Bouguer gravity anomaly data, and conductivity-depth transforms (CDTs) from the 1998 Santa Cruz transient electromagnetic survey (whose data are included in appendixes 1 and 2 of this report). Analyses based on magnetic gradients worked well to identify the range-front faults along the Mt. Benedict horst block, the location of possibly fault-controlled canyons to the west of Mt. Benedict, the edges of buried lava flows, and numerous other concealed faults and contacts. Applying the 1996 Patagonia aeromagnetic survey data using the horizontal gradient method produced results that were most closely correlated with the observed geology. The 1996 Patagonia aeromagnetic survey was used to estimate depth to bedrock in the upper Santa Cruz Basin study area. Three different depth estimation methods were applied to the data: Euler deconvolution, horizontal gradient magnitude, and analytic signal. The final depth to bedrock map was produced by choosing the maximum depth from each of the three methods at a given location and combining all maximum depths. In locations of rocks with a known reversed natural remanent magnetic field, gravity based depth estimates from Gettings and Houser (1997) were used. The depth to bedrock map was supported by modeling aeromagnetic anomaly data along six profiles. These cross sectional models demonstrated that by using the depth to bedrock map generated in this study, known and concealed faults, measured and estimated magnetic susceptibilities of rocks found in the study area, and estimated natural remanent magnetic intensities and directions, reasonable geologic models can be built. This indicates that the depth to bedrock map is reason-able and geologically possible. Finally, CDTs derived from the 1998 Santa Cruz Basin transient electromagnetic survey were used to help identify basin structure and some physical properties of the basin fill in the study area. The CDTs also helped to confirm depth to bedrock estimates in the Santa Cruz Basin, in particular a region of elevated bedrock in the area of Potrero Canyon, and a deep basin in the location of the Arizona State Highway 82 microbasin. The CDTs identified many concealed faults in the study area and possibly indicate deep water-saturated clay-rich sediments in the west-central portion of the study area. These sediments grade to more sand-rich saturated sediments to the south with relatively thick, possibly unsaturated, sediments at the surface. Also, the CDTs may indicate deep saturated clay-rich sediments in the Highway 82 microbasin and in the Mount Benedict horst block from Proto Canyon south to the international border.

Arizona↗

Structured decision making for conservation of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in Long Creek, Klamath River Basin, south-central Oregon

With the decline of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ), managers face multiple, and sometimes contradictory, management alternatives for species recovery. Moreover, effective decision-making involves all stakeholders influenced by the decisions (such as Tribal, State, Federal, private, and non-governmental organizations) because they represent diverse objectives, jurisdictions, policy mandates, and opinions of the best management strategy. The process of structured decision making is explicitly designed to address these elements of the decision making process. Here we report on an application of structured decision making to a population of bull trout believed threatened by high densities of nonnative brook trout ( S. fontinalis ) and habitat fragmentation in Long Creek, a tributary to the Sycan River in the Klamath River Basin, south-central Oregon. This involved engaging stakeholders to identify (1) their fundamental objectives for the conservation of bull trout, (2) feasible management alternatives to achieve their objectives, and (3) biological information and assumptions to incorporate in a decision model. Model simulations suggested an overarching theme among the top decision alternatives, which was a need to simultaneously control brook trout and ensure that the migratory tactic of bull trout can be expressed. More specifically, the optimal management decision, based on the estimated adult abundance at year 10, was to combine the eradication of brook trout from Long Creek with improvement of downstream conditions (for example, connectivity or habitat conditions). Other top decisions included these actions independently, as well as electrofishing removal of brook trout. In contrast, translocating bull trout to a different stream or installing a barrier to prevent upstream spread of brook trout had minimal or negative effects on the bull trout population. Moreover, sensitivity analyses suggested that these actions were consistently identified as optimal across a large range of parameter values. Taken together, these results support the conclusion that management actions focused on controlling brook trout and enhancing migrant bull trout are more likely to yield more adult bull trout within the 10-year time frame specified by stakeholders.

Oregon↗

Reexamination of the subsurface fault structure in the vicinity of the 1989 moment-magnitude-6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake, central California, using steep-reflection, earthquake, and magnetic data

We reexamine the geometry of the causative fault structure of the 1989 moment-magnitude-6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake in central California, using seismic-reflection, earthquake-hypocenter, and magnetic data. Our study is prompted by recent interpretations of a two-part dip of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) accompanied by a flower-like structure in the Coachella Valley, in southern California. Initially, the prevailing interpretation of fault geometry in the vicinity of the Loma Prieta earthquake was that the mainshock did not rupture the SAF, but rather a secondary fault within the SAF system, because network locations of aftershocks defined neither a vertical plane nor a fault plane that projected to the surface trace of the SAF. Subsequent waveform cross-correlation and double-difference relocations of Loma Prieta aftershocks appear to have clarified the fault geometry somewhat, with steeply dipping faults in the upper crust possibly connecting to the more moderately southwest-dipping mainshock rupture in the middle crust. Examination of steep-reflection data, extracted from a 1991 seismic-refraction profile through the Loma Prieta area, reveals three robust fault-like features that agree approximately in geometry with the clusters of upper-crustal relocated aftershocks. The subsurface geometry of the San Andreas, Sargent, and Berrocal Faults can be mapped using these features and the aftershock clusters. The San Andreas and Sargent Faults appear to dip northeastward in the uppermost crust and change dip continuously toward the southwest with depth. Previous models of gravity and magnetic data on profiles through the aftershock region also define a steeply dipping SAF, with an initial northeastward dip in the uppermost crust that changes with depth. At a depth 6 to 9 km, upper-crustal faults appear to project into the moderately southwest-dipping, planar mainshock rupture. The change to a planar dipping rupture at 6–9 km is similar to fault geometry seen in the Coachella Valley.

California↗

Offshore shallow structure and sediment distribution, Point Sur to Point Arguello, central California

This publication consists of three map sheets that display shallow geologic structure, along with sediment distribution and thickness, for an about 225-km-long offshore section of the central California coast between Point Sur and Point Arguello. Each map sheet includes three maps, at scales of either 1:150,000 or 1:200,000, as well as a set of figures that contain representative high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles. The maps and seismic-reflection surveys cover most of the continental shelf in this region. In addition, the maps show the locations of the shelf break and the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The seismic-reflection data, which are the primary dataset used to develop the maps, were collected to support the California Seafloor Mapping Program and U.S. Geological Survey Offshore Geologic Hazards projects. In addition to the three map sheets, this publication includes geographic information system data files of interpreted faults, folds, sediment thicknesses, and depths-to-base of sediment. The faults and folds shown on the maps have been locally simplified as appropriate for the map scales. The right-lateral San Gregorio–Hosgri Fault (SGHF) is the most significant structure in the map area. On a regional scale, the SGHF is part of a 400-km-long, right-lateral fault system that extends northwestward from Point Arguello to the area offshore of San Francisco, where it merges with the San Andreas Fault. From north to south in this part of central California, the SGHF lies offshore between the south flank of Point Sur and the north flank of Point Piedras Blancas, then comes onshore at Point Piedras Blancas, before heading offshore again between the south flank of Point Piedras Blancas and Point Arguello. Cumulative fault offset along the SGHF is as much as 150 to 160 km, decreasing to the south by transferring slip on to northwest-striking faults that converge with the SGHF both onland and offshore from the east. In the map area, the offshore-converging faults include the Los Osos Fault, the Shoreline–Point Buchon Fault, the Casmalia Fault, and the Lions Head Fault. Quaternary sediments and bedrock underlie the shelf. On the seismic-reflection profiles, we divide Quaternary shelf sediments into two units. Characterizing the younger, upper unit is a focus of this publication. This unit is inferred to have been deposited on the shelf in the last about 21,000 years during the sea-level rise that followed the last major lowstand and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). This upper unit overlies a transgressive surface of erosion, a commonly angular, wave-cut unconformity, and is generally characterized by low-amplitude, continuous to moderately continuous, diffuse, subparallel, generally flat reflections. Maps in this publication show both the thickness of this upper sediment unit and the depth to the base of the sediment unit. Within the map region, 11 different “domains” of post-LGM shelf sediment are delineated on the basis of sediment thickness and coastal geomorphology. Maximum sediment thickness is in the southern part of the region, offshore of the mouths of the Santa Ynez and Santa Maria Rivers. Minimum sediment thickness is found offshore of prominent rocky points, including Point Buchon and Piedras Blancas. Mean sediment thickness for the entire shelf in the map area between Point Sur and Point Arguello is 12.2 m, and total sediment volume is 24.7 million cubic meters.

California↗

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Bombay Hook National Wildlife Refuge, Delaware, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop a prototype tool for optimizing salt marsh management decisions at the Bombay Hook National Wildlife Refuge in Delaware. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of eight salt marsh management units within the refuge and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that would be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per salt marsh management unit, that would maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Results indicated that for the objectives and actions considered here, total management benefits would increase consistently up to approximately \$300,000, but that further expenditures would yield diminishing return on investment. Management actions selected within optimal portfolios at total costs less than \$300,000 included hydrologic restoration, recontouring adjacent uplands to facilitate marsh migration, and burning the marsh. The prototype presented here provides a framework for decision making at the Bombay Hook National Wildlife Refuge that can be updated as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuge.

Delaware↗

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia, through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop a prototype tool for optimizing salt marsh management decisions at the Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge in Virginia. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of 12 salt marsh management units within the refuge and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that would be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per salt marsh management unit, that would maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Results indicated that, for the objectives and actions considered here, total management benefits may increase consistently up to approximately $ 2.5 million, but that further expenditures may yield diminishing return on investment. For multiple salt marsh management units, a scenario incorporating managing grazing practices within the marsh was selected to maximize benefits while constraining total costs for the refuge at less than $ 2.5 million. Thin-layer deposition was predicted to increase the total management benefit substantially, but at considerable total costs ( $ 2.5 million to $ 83 million). The prototype presented here provides a framework for decision making at the Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge that can be updated as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuge.

Virginia↗

Offshore shallow structure and sediment distribution, Punta Gorda to Point Arena, Northern California

This publication consists of two map sheets that display shallow geologic structure, along with sediment distribution and thickness, for an approximately 150-km-long offshore section of the northern California coast between Punta Gorda and Point Arena. Each map sheet includes three maps at scales of either 1:100,000 or 1:200,000, and together the sheets include 30 figures that contain representative high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles. The maps and seismic-reflection surveys cover most of the continental shelf in this region. In addition, the maps show the locations of the shelf break and the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The seismic-reflection data, which are the primary dataset used to develop the maps, were collected to support the California Seafloor Mapping Program, U.S. Geological Survey Offshore Geologic Hazards projects, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) Ocean Explorer program. In addition to the two map sheets, this publication includes geographic information system data files of faults, sediment thicknesses, and depths-to-base of sediment The map area includes the northernmost section of the right-lateral San Andreas Fault, which extends offshore from Point Arena in the south to Point Delgada in the north. The San Andreas Fault is the primary structure in the widely distributed plate boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Sierra Nevada–Great Valley Microplate, with estimates of cumulative right slip of as much as up to 450 km. South of Point Delgada, fault-related transtension has resulted in development of the Noyo Basin. North of Point Delgada, the San Andreas Fault transitions into a complex contractional zone in and (or) south of the King Range, including a possible nearshore fault that may connect with the Mattole Canyon Fault. Quaternary sediments and bedrock underlie the shelf. On the seismic-reflection profiles, we digitally traced the thickness and depth of the uppermost seismic-stratigraphic unit, which is a focus of this publication. The upper contact of this unit is the seafloor; the lower contact is a transgressive surface of erosion, a commonly angular, wave-cut unconformity characterized by an upward change to lower amplitude, more diffuse reflections. On the basis of this lower contact, this stratigraphic unit is inferred to have been deposited on the shelf in the last about 21,000 years during the sea-level rise that followed the last major lowstand and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Maps in this publication show both the thickness of this upper sediment unit and the depth to the base of the sediment unit. Within the map region, five different “domains” of post-LGM shelf sediment are delineated on the basis of sediment thickness and coastal geomorphology. Maximum sediment thickness (as much as 67 m) is found in the northern part of the region, along the steep south flank of the King Range. Minimum sediment thickness (areas of exposed bedrock) is found on fault-bounded uplifts, which include Tolo bank and Punta Gorda bank. Mean sediment thickness for the entire shelf in the map area between Punta Gorda and Point Arena is 8.9 m, and total sediment volume is 12,824×10 6 m 3 .

California↗

Optimization of salt marsh management at the Rhode Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex through use of structured decision making

Structured decision making is a systematic, transparent process for improving the quality of complex decisions by identifying measurable management objectives and feasible management actions; predicting the potential consequences of management actions relative to the stated objectives; and selecting a course of action that maximizes the total benefit achieved and balances tradeoffs among objectives. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, applied an existing, regional framework for structured decision making to develop a prototype tool for optimizing salt marsh management decisions at the Rhode Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex. Refuge biologists, refuge managers, and research scientists identified multiple potential management actions to improve the ecological integrity of nine salt marsh management units within the refuge complex and estimated the outcomes of each action in terms of performance metrics associated with each management objective. Value functions previously developed at the regional level were used to transform metric scores to a common utility scale, and utilities were summed to produce a single score representing the total management benefit that would be accrued from each potential management action. Constrained optimization was used to identify the set of management actions, one per salt marsh management unit, that would maximize total management benefits at different cost constraints at the refuge scale. Results indicated that, for the objectives and actions considered here, total management benefits may increase consistently up to approximately $ 150,000, but that further expenditures may yield diminishing return on investment. Management actions in optimal portfolios at total costs less than $ 150,000 included digging runnels (by hand or machine) on the marsh surface to improve drainage in eight management units, applying sediment to the marsh surface (thin layer deposition) in one management unit, constructing islands for use by tidal marsh obligate birds in two management units, and controlling Phragmites australis in one management unit. The management benefits were derived from expected improvements in the capacity for marsh elevation to keep pace with sea-level rise and increases in numbers of spiders (as an indicator of trophic health) and tidal marsh obligate birds. The prototype presented here provides a framework for decision making at the Rhode Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex that can be updated as new data and information become available. Insights from this process may also be useful to inform future habitat management planning at the refuge.

Rhode Island↗

Seismic evaluation of shallow-depth structure, faulting, and groundwater variations across the Dos Palmas Preserve, Riverside County, California

Introduction Dos Palmas Preserve is a Colorado Desert oasis and wetland in Riverside County, California, located near the base of the Orocopia Mountains and northeast of the Salton Sea. The original source of water for the oasis was artesian springs that developed at the base of the Orocopia Mountains, but more abundant water supplies were later provided to Dos Palmas Preserve when the Coachella Canal was built and water seeped from unlined parts of the canal. As a result of this abundant water supply in a desert setting, Dos Palmas Preserve, managed by the Bureau of Land Management, is now a wildlife preserve that became home to multiple plants, fowl, insects, rodents, reptiles, and bats, including some endangered and threatened species. More recently, sections of the Coachella Canal have been lined, resulting in a reduction of water seepage and threatening the sustainability of parts of Dos Palmas Preserve. Faults usually act as barriers to groundwater flow and Dos Palmas Preserve is only a few kilometers from the active trace of the San Andreas Fault, where splays of the fault trend through the area. Additionally, numerous closely spaced faults that have been mapped at the surface northwest of Dos Palmas Preserve are believed to extend southward into the Dos Palmas Preserve, where they are covered by alluvium. Thus, evaluation of the subsurface lithology and structure is needed to determine how the current allocation of water from the Coachella Canal affects various parts of Dos Palmas Preserve. To better understand the distribution of the shallow lithology, faulting, and groundwater in Dos Palmas Preserve, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the Bureau of Land Management, conducted a seismic survey across the northern part of Dos Palmas Preserve. The seismic survey was designed to “map” the upper part of the aquifer system and to more precisely locate faults that may affect groundwater flow in Dos Palmas Preserve. In this report, we present seismic velocity and reflection images of the shallow subsurface and relate those images to interpretative structures and stratigraphy that may affect groundwater at Dos Palmas Preserve.

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