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Review and synthesis: Changing permafrost in a warming world and feedbacks to the Earth System

The permafrost component of the cryosphere is changing dramatically, but the permafrost region is not well monitored and the consequences of change are not well understood. Changing permafrost interacts with ecosystems and climate on various spatial and temporal scales. The feedbacks resulting from these interactions range from local impacts on topography, hydrology, and biology to complex influences on global scale biogeochemical cycling. This review contributes to this focus issue by synthesizing its 28 multidisciplinary studies which provide field evidence, remote sensing observations, and modeling results on various scales. We synthesize study results from a diverse range of permafrost landscapes and ecosystems by reporting key observations and modeling outcomes for permafrost thaw dynamics, identifying feedbacks between permafrost and ecosystem processes, and highlighting biogeochemical feedbacks from permafrost thaw. We complete our synthesis by discussing the progress made, stressing remaining challenges and knowledge gaps, and providing an outlook on future needs and research opportunities in the study of permafrost–ecosystem–climate interactions.

Environmental Research Letters↗

Global energy and water cycle experiment (GEWEX) continental-scale international project (GCIP); reference data sets CD-ROM

The data sets on this compact disc are a compilation of several geographic reference data sets of interest to the global-change research community. The data sets were chosen with input from the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP) Data Committee and the GCIP Hydrometeorology and Atmospheric Subpanels. The data sets include: locations and periods of record for stream gages, reservoir gages, and meteorological stations; a 500-meter-resolution digital elevation model; grid-node locations for the Eta numerical weather-prediction model; and digital map data sets of geology, land use, streams, large reservoirs, average annual runoff, average annual precipitation, average annual temperature, average annual heating and cooling degree days, hydrologic units, and state and county boundaries. Also included are digital index maps for LANDSAT scenes, and for the U.S. Geological Survey 1:250,000, 1:100,000, and 1:24,000-scale map series. Most of the data sets cover the conterminous United States; the digital elevation model also includes part of southern Canada. The stream and reservoir gage and meteorological station files cover all states having area within the Mississippi River Basin plus that part of the Mississippi River Basin lying within Canada. Several data-base retrievals were processed by state, therefore many sites outside the Mississippi River Basin are included.

Open-File Report↗

Hot spots and hot moments in the Critical Zone: Identification of and incorporation into reactive transport models

Biogeochemical processes are often spatially discrete (hot spots) and temporally isolated (hot moments) due to variability in controlling factors like hydrologic fluxes, lithological characteristics, bio-geomorphic features, and external forcing. Although these hot spots and hot moments (HSHMs) account for a high percentage of carbon, nitrogen and nutrient cycling within the Critical Zone, the ability to identify and incorporate them into reactive transport models remains a significant challenge. This chapter provides an overview of the hot spots hot moments (HSHMs) concepts, where past work has largely focused on carbon and nitrogen dynamics within riverine systems. This work is summarized in the context of process-based and data-driven modeling approaches, including a brief description of recent research that casts a wider net to incorporate Hg, Fe and other Critical Zone elements, and focuses on interdisciplinary approaches and concepts. The broader goal of this chapter is to provide an overview of the gaps in our current understanding of HSHMs, and the opportunities therein, while specifically focusing on the underlying parameters and processes leading to their prognostic and diagnostic representation in reactive transport models.

Book chapter↗

Small-volume tephra deposits of the May 1924 explosions from Halemaʻumaʻu, Kīlauea volcano, and their origin

More than 50 explosive eruptions occurred from Halemaʻumaʻu at Kīlauea volcano over 17 days from May 11 to 27, 1924. Ballistics weighing as much as 14,000 kg were ejected and most landed within 2 km of the vent. Fine ash made up a major component of the tephra and was dispersed tens of kilometers downwind. Draining of the Halemaʻumaʻu lava lake occurred in late February 1924, with the crater floor eventually subsiding by a further ∼70 m (to ∼180 m below the crater rim) by the time the first explosions took place during the night of May 10–11. The largest explosions occurred on May 17–18 and smaller explosions continued until May 27, at which point Halemaʻumaʻu had more than doubled in width and depth. The explosions generated plumes reaching up to ∼10 km high with ballistics ejected up to 2 km from the crater. Almost 100 years later, we investigate and characterize the preserved tephra deposits within ∼3 km of the 1924 crater rim. Grain size and shape analyses were performed on 202 samples collected from 34 tephra profiles using dynamic image analysis, with a subset of layers from nine tephra profiles used for componentry (200 grains per layer in the 0.5–1 mm size fraction). Additionally, we characterize the average diameters (using the five largest clasts) at 216 locations and measure the average diameters of 2291 ballistics (largest per ∼100 m 2 area). Physical descriptions from fieldwork and grain size distributions were used to subdivide the tephra layers into five lithofacies: coarse homogeneous, fine homogenous, red ash, accretionary lapilli-bearing, and finely laminated. Grain size versus shape data show a range of values that demonstrate most grains are dense, smooth, and equant, in alignment with lithic clasts dominating the tephra componentry. The fine grained and accretionary lapilli-bearing nature of some of these lithofacies confirms that water influenced the style of the explosions. However, we also note juvenile clasts within many of the tephra layers, indicating that many of the layers were formed during phreatomagmatic explosions (sensu stricto), despite the eruptive mechanism being dominantly phreatic. Juvenile clasts are more abundant higher in the tephra profiles, suggesting that juvenile magma was more involved later in the explosive sequence. Thermal and hydrologic modeling indicate that groundwater inflow into a short-lived, small-diameter volcanic conduit (10-m to 120-m-diameter used for modeling) during the 78–85 days preceding the first explosion provides a physically plausible mechanism for this eruptive sequence.

Hawaii↗

Numerical simulation of the paleohydrology of glacial Lake Oshkosh, eastern Wisconsin, USA

Proglacial lakes, formed during retreat of the Laurentide ice sheet, evolved quickly as outlets became ice-free and the earth deformed through glacial isostatic adjustment. With high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) and GIS methods, it is possible to reconstruct the evolution of surface hydrology. When a DEM deforms through time as predicted by our model of viscoelastic earth relaxation, the entire surface hydrologic system with its lakes, outlets, shorelines and rivers also evolves without requiring assumptions of outlet position. The method is applied to proglacial Lake Oshkosh in Wisconsin (13,600 to 12,900??cal yr BP). Comparison of predicted to observed shoreline tilt indicates the ice sheet was about 400??m thick over the Great Lakes region. During ice sheet recession, each of the five outlets are predicted to uplift more than 100??m and then subside approximately 30??m. At its maximum extent, Lake Oshkosh covered 6600??km2 with a volume of 111??km3. Using the Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System model, flow velocities during glacial outburst floods up to 9??m/s and peak discharge of 140,000??m3/s are predicted, which could drain 33.5??km3 of lake water in 10??days and transport boulders up to 3??m in diameter. ?? 2007 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗

Note on the applicability of the James-Stein Estimator in regional hydrologic studies

The applicability of the James-Stein estimator in regional hydrologic studies which entail the estimation of an N -dimensional location parameter is discussed. Regional studies are frequently characterized by relatively short, generally correlated, samples drawn from nonsymmetric and bounded, i.e., nonnormal, populations. By means of computer simulation studies the James-Stein estimator, subject to the Lindley modification and adoption of the positive part rule suggested by Efron and Morris and conditioned on the assumption of independence, was shown to be robust in the case of the hydrologically plausible distribution considered here, namely, Weibull distributions with coefficient of skewness ranging from 0 to 10. However, in contrast to traditional methods of regionalization the effect of cross correlation is a diminishment of the relative risk advantage of the James-Stein estimator, even in the best case of normal variables : this is discussed and illustrated.

Water Resources Research↗

Community involvement in a multimedia outreach project for Caddo Lake, Texas

Caddo Lake is located in northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana and is the largest freshwater lake in Texas. A portion of the lake in Texas has been designated a "Wetland of International Significance" under the Ramsar Convention of the United Nations. The human community in the watershed has experienced a number of hydrological alterations to Caddo Lake over the last 100 years by the Federal Government. Thus, many landowners in the area have become organized to protect Caddo Lake against what some view as harmful further alterations. In 1992, the U.S. Congress appropriated funds for an initiative to conduct baseline studies of the natural resources of Caddo Lake in order to foster ecotourism and economic development in the surrounding counties. For the information gathering part of the initiative and in response to negative criticism of the Caddo Lake Initiative expressed at a public meeting, the U.S. Geological Survey's National Wetlands Research Center invited public participation in developing a multimedia outreach system to improve the understanding of the natural resources at Caddo Lake and provide information about the studies. In the development of the outreach system we sought to strengthen working relationships with the State of Texas, local governments, and grassroots citizens groups. The outreach system consisted of an MS Windows-based interactive CD-ROM package that incorporated pictures, sound, animation, and video footage of the lake and the local culture. Public involvement in system development served as a catalyst for changing community perceptions about Federal and states studies at Caddo Lake and fostered community endorsement of the Caddo Lake Initiative.

Texas↗

A synthesis of the characteristics and drivers of introduced fishes in prairie streams: Can we manage introduced harmful fishes in these dynamic environments?

Prairie streams of North America support native fishes that are adapted to the dynamic environment that characterizes these ecologically and economically important ecosystems. However, prairie streams have been altered by landscape changes that may affect the proportions of native and introduced species in fish communities. Herein, we investigate drivers of introduced fish in prairie streams, detail common introduced species and their traits and effects, investigate how climate change may alter the balance between native and introduced species, and summarize management options. Commonly introduced fishes are those with the ability to tolerate extreme variations in temperature, hydrology, and salinity and, as a result, most of the introduced fishes were native to other prairie streams within the Great Plains ecoregion. This suggests environmental extremes may act as a filter for establishment or that short-distance translocations are more common than introductions from other ecoregions. The mechanisms or extent to which introduced species affect native fishes is often assumed or understudied. Climate change may amplify environmental disturbances in ways that may favor native or introduced fishes depending on species traits and biotic interactions. Actions such as habitat modifications or disturbances may favor introduced fishes over native fishes. Research to understand the relative roles of trait preadaptation and spatial proximity of source populations in introduced species establishment could benefit future management. Moreover, patterns observed in other ecosystems may not be transferrable to prairie streams, highlighting the need to understand the context dependency of effects of introduced species.

North American Great Plains↗

Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.

Nature Water↗

A synthesis of aquatic science for management of Lakes Mead and Mohave

Lakes Mead and Mohave, which are the centerpieces of Lake Mead National Recreation Area, provide many significant benefits that have made the modern development of the Southwestern United States possible. Lake Mead is the largest reservoir by volume in the nation and it supplies critical storage of water supplies for more than 25 million people in three Western States (California, Arizona, and Nevada). Storage within Lake Mead supplies drinking water and the hydropower to provide electricity for major cities including Las Vegas, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Tucson, and San Diego, and irrigation of more than 2.5 million acres of croplands. Lake Mead is arguably the most important reservoir in the nation because of its size and the services it delivers to the Western United States. This Circular includes seven chapters. Chapter 1 provides a short summary of the overall findings and management implications for Lakes Mead and Mohave that can be used to guide the reader through the rest of the Circular. Chapter 2 introduces the environmental setting and characteristics of Lakes Mead and Mohave and provides a brief management context of the lakes within the Colorado River system as well as overviews of the geological bedrock and sediment accumulations of the lakes. Chapter 3 contains summaries of the operational and hydrologic characteristics of Lakes Mead and Mohave. Chapter 4 provides information on water quality, including discussion on the monitoring of contaminants and sediments within the reservoirs. Chapter 5 describes aquatic biota and wildlife, including food-web dynamics, plankton, invertebrates, fish, aquatic birds, and aquatic vegetation. Chapter 6 outlines threats and stressors to the health of Lake Mead aquatic ecosystems that include a range of environmental contaminants, invasive species, and climate change. Chapter 7 provides a more detailed summary of overall findings that are presented in Chapter 1; and it contains a more detailed discussion on associated management implications, additional research, and monitoring needs.

Arizona, Nevada↗

A model for seasonal changes in GPS positions and seismic wave speeds due to thermoelastic and hydrologic variations

It is known that GPS time series contain a seasonal variation that is not due to tectonic motions, and it has recently been shown that crustal seismic velocities may also vary seasonally. In order to explain these changes, a number of hypotheses have been given, among which thermoelastic and hydrology-induced stresses and strains are leading candidates. Unfortunately, though, since a general framework does not exist for understanding such seasonal variations, it is currently not possible to quickly evaluate the plausibility of these hypotheses. To fill this gap in the literature, I generalize a two-dimensional thermoelastic strain model to provide an analytic solution for the displacements and wave speed changes due to either thermoelastic stresses or hydrologic loading, which consists of poroelastic stresses and purely elastic stresses. The thermoelastic model assumes a periodic surface temperature, and the hydrologic models similarly assume a periodic near-surface water load. Since all three models are two-dimensional and periodic, they are expected to only approximate any realistic scenario; but the models nonetheless provide a quantitative framework for estimating the effects of thermoelastic and hydrologic variations. Quantitative comparison between the models and observations is further complicated by the large uncertainty in some of the relevant parameters. Despite this uncertainty, though, I find that maximum realistic thermoelastic effects are unlikely to explain a large fraction of the observed annual variation in a typical GPS displacement time series or of the observed annual variations in seismic wave speeds in southern California. Hydrologic loading, on the other hand, may be able to explain a larger fraction of both the annual variations in displacements and seismic wave speeds. Neither model is likely to explain all of the seismic wave speed variations inferred from observations. However, more definitive conclusions cannot be made until the model parameters are better constrained. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Heat flow and thermotectonic problems of the central Ventura Basin, southern California

The Ventura Basin, southern California, is located near the Big Bend area of the San Andreas fault system, within the Transverse Ranges physiographic province. Continuous equilibrium temperature logs were measured in 12 idle oil wells located within the onshore Ventura Avenue, San Miguelito, Filmore, Oxnard, and West Montalvo fields to an average depth of about 3100 m (10,200 feet). Thermal conductivities were measured on all available samples. Heat flows were calculated with the aid of a thermostratigraphic scheme based on correlative gradient intervals and average thermal conductivity for the appropriate units. Negative curvature of the Ventura Avenue temperature profiles may be explained by an increase in thermal conductivity associated with tectonic compaction of the underlying Pliocene clastic sequence. Temperature profiles at Fillmore are enigmatic but suggest highly unusual geotectonic conditions. Basinwide, heat flow averages about 48 mW/m 2 , a value which is low relative to most of southern California. As heat flow does not vary systematically to the maximum measured depth of about 4 km, this anomaly is not easily explained in terms of hydrologic effects or recent uplift and erosion. However, a diminution of heat flow is an expectable consequence of the accumulation of cold sediments (up to 12 km) since Eocene time. If 70 mW/m 2 is accepted as the background heat flow, then the sedimentation effect is probably sufficient to explain the anomaly.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

A guidebook to spatial datasets for conservation planning under climate change in the Pacific Northwest

This guidebook provides user-friendly overviews of a variety of spatial datasets relevant to conservation and management of natural resources in the face of climate change in the Pacific Northwest, United States. Each guidebook chapter was created using a standardized template to summarize a spatial dataset or a group of closely related datasets. Datasets were selected according to standardized criteria based on input through a collaborative process involving researchers and natural-resource managers throughout the Pacific Northwest region. In each chapter, basic spatial and temporal information is provided for the dataset, along with a conceptual overview, glossary of key terms, links to download data and supporting documentation, a brief methods summary describing how the dataset was created, guidelines for dataset interpretation, assessment of uncertainties along with evaluation of caveats and simplifying assumptions, and information about potential and actual conservation applications of the dataset. Collectively, this information provides natural-resource managers with “snapshots” of a variety of datasets representing diverse processes and conditions, including climate projections, changes in hydrologic conditions, vegetation and fire-regime shifts, animal habitat changes, species movements, and topographic and soil conditions relevant to climate change. Along with other types of data and site-specific information, the datasets described in this guidebook have the potential to inform management of valued natural resources throughout the Pacific Northwest region in the context of adaptation to changing climate conditions.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗

Geotherm: the U.S. geological survey geothermal information system

GEOTHERM is a comprehensive system of public databases and software used to store, locate, and evaluate information on the geology, geochemistry, and hydrology of geothermal systems. Three main databases address the general characteristics of geothermal wells and fields, and the chemical properties of geothermal fluids; the last database is currently the most active. System tasks are divided into four areas: (1) data acquisition and entry, involving data entry via word processors and magnetic tape; (2) quality assurance, including the criteria and standards handbook and front-end data-screening programs; (3) operation, involving database backups and information extraction; and (4) user assistance, preparation of such items as application programs, and a quarterly newsletter. The principal task of GEOTHERM is to provide information and research support for the conduct of national geothermal-resource assessments. The principal users of GEOTHERM are those involved with the Geothermal Research Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. Information in the system is available to the public on request. ?? 1983.

Computers & Geosciences↗

Ecohydrological controls on soil moisture and hydraulic conductivity within a pinyon‐juniper woodland

The impact of pinyon‐juniper woodland encroachment on rangeland ecosystems is often associated with a reduction of streamflow and recharge and an increase in soil erosion. The objective of this study is to investigate vegetational control on seasonal soil hydrologic properties along a 15‐m transect in pinyon‐juniper woodland with biocrust. We demonstrate that the juniper tree controls soil water content (SWC) patterns directly under the canopy via interception, and beyond the canopy via shading in a preferred orientation, opposite to the prevailing wind direction. The juniper also controls the SWC and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity measured close to water saturation ( K ( h )) under the canopy by the creation of soil water repellency due to needle drop. We use this information to refine the hydrologic functional unit (HFU) concept into three interacting hydrologic units: canopy patches, intercanopy patches, and a transitional unit formed by intercanopy patches in the rain shadow of the juniper tree. Spatial autoregressive state‐space models show the close relationship between K ( h ) close to soil water saturation and SWC at medium and low levels, integrating a number of influences on hydraulic conductivity.

Water Resources Research↗

Lateral carbon exports from drained peatlands: An understudied carbon pathway in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California

Degradation of peatlands via drainage is increasing globally and destabilizing peat carbon (C) stores. The effects of drainage on the timing and magnitude of lateral C losses from degraded peatlands remains understudied. We measured spatial and temporal variability in lateral C exports from three drained peat islands in the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta in California across the 2017 and 2018 water years using measurements of dissolved inorganic C (DIC), dissolved organic C (DOC), and suspended particulate organic C (POC) concentration combined with discharge. These measurements were supplemented with stable isotope data (δ 13 C‐DIC, δ 13 C‐POC, δ 15 N‐PON, and δ 2 H‐H 2 O values) to provide insight into hydrological and biogeochemical controls on lateral C exports from drained peatlands. Drainage DOC and DIC concentrations were seasonally variable with the highest values in the winter rainy season, when discharge was also elevated. Seasonal differences in the mobilization of dissolved C appeared to result from changing water sources and water table levels. Peat island drainage C contributions to surrounding waterways were also greatest during the winter. Although temporal variability in C cycling processes and trends were generally similar across islands, baseline drainage DIC, DOC, and POC concentrations were spatially variable, likely a result of sub‐island‐scale differences in soil organic matter content and hydrology. This spatial variability complicates system‐wide assessments of C budgets. Net lateral C exports were water year dependent and comparable to previously published vertical C emission rates for this system. This work highlights the importance of including lateral C exports from drained peatlands in local and regional C budgets.

California↗

Committee on glaciers, 1939–40

The Committee on Glaciers is now composed of the following members: Harry Fielding Reid, Professor Emeritus of Geology, Johns Hopkins University, 608 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, Maryland; William H. Hobbs, Professor Emeritus of Geology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan; Lawrence Martin, Chief of the Division of Maps, Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.; J. E. Church, Professor of Meteorology, Agricultural Experiment Station, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada; Wm. Osgood Field, Jr., Explorer, 18 West Twelfth Street, New York, N.Y.; Earl A. Trager, Chief of the Naturalist Division, National Park Service, Washington, D.C.; Oliver Kehrlein, Chairman, Committee on Glacier Studies, 1050 Mills Tower, 220 Bush Street, San Francisco, California; Kenneth N. Phillips, Associate Hydraulic Engineer, Water Resources Branch, United States Geological Survey, Chairman, Research Committee of the Mazamas, 606 Post‐Office Building, Portland, Oregon; William S. Cooper, Professor of Botany, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota; Gerald FitzGerald, Senior Topographic Engineer, Alaska Branch, United States Geological Survey, Washington, D.C.; Lawrence M. Gould, Professor of Geology, Carleton College, Northfield, Minnesota; François E. Matthes (Chairman), Senior Geologist, Section of Glacial Geology, United States Geological Survey, Washington, D.C. The international relations of the Committee have changed somewhat during the past year as a result of the consolidation of the International Commission of Glaciers with the International Commission of Snow. That consolidation was effected by the International Association of Scientific Hydrology (to which both commissions belonged) at the triennial meeting in Washington, in September, 1939. Inasmuch as the membership of the new International Commission of Snow and Glaciers comprises the personnel of the two former commissions, our Committee on Glaciers now automatically is represented on the new International Commission by four men—Church, Hobbs, Gould, and Matthes. Moreover, Church is acting President, and it is understood that he will become President as soon as the political situation in Europe permits the holding of a formal election of officers at which all nations interested can exercise their right of voting

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

Classification of the hydrologic settings of lakes in the north central United States

The hydrologic settings of 150 lakes in the north central United States were investigated by principal component analysis as a first attempt to develop a general classification of the hydrologic settings of lakes. Precipitation-evaporation balance and the water quality variables have high loadings on the first principal component. Highest loadings on component 2 are for streamflow in and out of the lakes. Components 3 and 4 are characterized by geologic and groundwater flow variables. The drainage basin area/lake area ratio, the overland runoff variable, has the highest loading on component 5. The stability of the principal components was tested by randomly splitting the data and comparing a principal component analysis of each subsample. This showed the first two principal components to be the most stable. The components described by the groundwater variables are less stable, but there is justification for using them with caution. Of the variables examined in this study the distribution of dissolved solids of groundwater is most closely related to the distribution of lake types as determined by other limnological typologies in the north central United States. The study indicates that the following are the most important variables to be considered in classifying the hydrologic settings of lakes: dissolved solids concentration of groundwater, precipitation-evaporation balance, streamflow inlet and outlet, the ratio of drainage basin area to lake area, and lake depth. Of the groundwater variables, local relief and regional slope are more important than is regional position. Texture of the drift and bedrock, which is related to hydraulic conductivity of the rocks, is very important.

Water Resources Research↗