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USGS2015

Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears

The polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) was listed as a globally threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008, mostly due to the significant threat to their future population viability from rapidly declining Arctic sea ice. A core mandate of the ESA is the development of a recovery plan that identifies steps to maintain viable populations of a listed species. A substantive evaluation of the relative influence of putative threats to population persistence is helpful to recovery planning. Because management actions must often be taken in the face of substantial information gaps, a formalized evaluation hypothesizing potential stressors and their relationships with population persistence can improve identification of relevant conservation actions. To this end, we updated a Bayesian network model previously used to forecast the future status of polar bears worldwide. We used new information on actual and predicted sea ice loss and polar bear responses to evaluate the relative influence of plausible threats and their mitigation through management actions on the persistence of polar bears in four ecoregions. We found that polar bear outcomes worsened over time through the end of the century under both stabilized and unabated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways. Under the unabated pathway (i.e., RCP 8.5), the time it took for polar bear populations in two of four ecoregions to reach a dominant probability of greatly decreased was hastened by about 25 years. Under the stabilized GHG emission pathway (i.e., RCP 4.5), where GHG emissions peak around the year 2040, the polar bear population in the Archipelago Ecoregion of High Arctic Canada never reached a dominant probability of greatly decreased, reinforcing earlier suggestions of this ecoregion’s potential to serve as a long-term refugium. The most influential drivers of adverse polar bear outcomes were declines to overall sea ice conditions and to the marine prey base. Improved sea ice conditions substantively lowered the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased outcome, while an elevated marine prey base was slightly less influential in lowering the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased outcome. Stressors associated with in situ human activities exerted considerably less influence on population outcomes. Reduced mortality from hunting and defense of life and property interactions resulted inmodest declines in the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased population outcome. Minimizing other stressors such as trans-Arctic shipping, oil and gas exploration, and point-source pollution had negligible effects on polar bear outcomes, but that could be attributed to uncertainties in the ecological relevance of those specific stressors. Our findings suggest adverse consequences of loss of sea ice habitat become more pronounced as the summer ice-free period lengthens beyond 4 months, which could occur in portions of the Arctic by the middle of this century under the unabated pathway. The long-term persistence of polar bears may be achieved through ameliorating the loss of sea ice habitat, which will likely require stabilizing CO 2 emissions at or below the ceiling represented by RCP 4.5. Management of other stressors may serve to slow the transition of polar bear populations to progressively worsened outcomes, and improve the prospects of persistence, pending GHG mitigation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Representation of regional urban development conditions using a watershed-based gradient study design

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program, the effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems (EUSE) have been intensively investigated in nine metropolitan areas in the United States, including Boston, Massachusetts; Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; Raleigh, North Carolina; Salt Lake City, Utah; Denver, Colorado; Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas; Portland, Oregon; and Milwaukee–Green Bay, Wisconsin. Each of the EUSE study area watersheds was associated with one ecological region of the United States. This report evaluates whether each metropolitan area can be generalized across the ecological regions (ecoregions) within which the EUSE study watersheds are located. Seven characteristics of the EUSE watersheds that affect stream ecosystems were examined to determine the similarities in the same seven characteristics of the watersheds in the entire ecoregion. Land cover (percentage developed, forest and shrubland, and herbaceous and cultivated classes), average annual temperature, average annual precipitation, average surface elevation, and average percentage slope were selected as human-influenced, climate, and topography characteristics. Three findings emerged from this comparison that have implications for the use of EUSE data in models used to predict stream ecosystem condition. One is that the predominant or "background" land-cover type (either forested or agricultural land) in each ecoregion also is the predominant land-cover type within the associated EUSE study watersheds. The second finding is that in all EUSE study areas, the watersheds account for the range of developed land conditions that exist in the corresponding ecoregion watersheds. However, six of the nine EUSE study area watersheds have significantly different distributions of developed land from the ecoregion watersheds. Finally, in seven of the nine EUSE/ecoregion comparisons, the distributions of the values of climate variables in the EUSE watersheds are different from the distributions for watersheds in the corresponding ecoregions.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Reviews and syntheses: Variable inundation across Earth's terrestrial ecosystems

The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal scales of variable inundation are vast, ranging from sub-meter to whole landscapes and from sub-hourly to multi-decadal. The broad range of system types and scales makes it challenging to predict the hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical evolution of VIEs. Despite all experiencing the loss and gain of an overlying water column, VIEs are rarely considered together in conceptual, theoretical, modeling, or measurement frameworks and approaches. Studying VIEs together has the potential to generate mechanistic understanding that is transferable across a much broader range of environmental conditions, relative to knowledge generated by studying any one VIE type. We postulate that enhanced transferability will be important for predicting changes in VIE function in response to global change. Here we aim to catalyze cross-VIE science that studies drivers and impacts of variable inundation across Earth's VIEs. To this end, we complement expert mini-reviews of eight major VIE systems with overviews of VIE-relevant methods and challenges associated with scale. We conclude with perspectives on how cross-VIE science can derive transferable understanding via unifying conceptual models in which the impacts of variable inundation are studied across multi-dimensional environmental space.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2021

Intact landscape promotes gene flow and low genetic structuring in the threatened Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake

Genetic structuring of wild populations is dependent on environmental, ecological, and life-history factors. The specific role environmental context plays in genetic structuring is important to conservation practitioners working with rare species across areas with varying degrees of fragmentation. We investigated fine-scale genetic patterns of the federally threatened Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake ( Sistrurus catenatus ) on a relatively undisturbed island in northern Michigan, USA. This species often persists in habitat islands throughout much of its distribution due to extensive habitat loss and distance-limited dispersal. We found that the entire island population exhibited weak genetic structuring with spatially segregated variation in effective migration and genetic diversity. The low level of genetic structuring contrasts with previous studies in the southern part of the species’ range at comparable fine scales (~7 km), in which much higher levels of structuring were documented. The island population's genetic structuring more closely resembles that of populations from Ontario, Canada, that occupy similarly intact habitats. Intrapopulation variation in effective migration and genetic diversity likely corresponds to the presence of large inland lakes acting as barriers and more human activity in the southern portion of the island. The observed genetic structuring in this intact landscape suggests that the Eastern Massasauga is capable of sufficient interpatch movements to reduce overall genetic structuring and colonize new habitats. Landscape mosaics with multiple habitat patches and localized barriers (e.g., large water bodies or roads) will promote gene flow and natural colonization for this declining species.

Michigan↗

USGS2015

Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum . We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases↗

USGS2020

Contemporary fire regimes provide a critical perspective on restoration needs in the Mexico-United States borderlands

The relationship between people and wildfire has always been paradoxical: fire is an essential ecological process and management tool, but can also be detrimental to life and property. Consequently, fire regimes have been modified throughout history through both intentional burning to promote benefits and active suppression to reduce risks. Reintroducing fire and its benefits back into the Sky Island mountains of the United States-Mexico borderlands has the potential to reduce adverse effects of altered fire regimes and build resilient ecosystems and human communities. To help guide regional fire restoration, we describe the frequency and severity of recent fires over a 32-year period (1985-2017) across a vast binational region in the United States-Mexico borderlands and assess variation in fire frequency and severity across climate gradients and in relation to vegetation and land tenure classes. We synthesize relevant literature on historical fire regimes within 9 major vegetation types and assess how observed contemporary fire characteristics vary from expectations based on historical patterns. Less than 28% of the study area burned during the observation period, excluding vegetation types in warmer climates that are not adapted to fire (eg, Desertscrub and Thornscrub). Average severity of recent fires was low despite some extreme outliers in cooler, wetter environments. Midway along regional temperature and precipitation gradients, approximately 64% of Pine-Oak Forests burned at least once, with fire frequencies that mainly corresponded to historical expectations on private lands in Mexico but less so on communal lands, suggesting the influence of land management. Fire frequency was higher than historical expectations in extremely cool and wet environments that support forest types such as Spruce-Fir, indicating threats to these systems possibly attributable to drought and other factors. In contrast, fires were absent or infrequent across large areas of Woodlands (~73% unburned) and Grasslands (~88% unburned) due possibly to overgrazing, which reduces abundance and continuity of fine fuels needed to carry fire. Our findings provide a new depiction of fire regimes in the Sky Islands that can help inform fire management, restoration, and regional conservation planning, fostered by local and traditional knowledge and collaboration among landowners and managers.

Arizona, Sonora↗

USGS2017

Restoration handbook for sagebrush steppe ecosystems with emphasis on greater sage-grouse habitat—Part 3. Site level restoration decisions

Sagebrush steppe ecosystems in the United States currently (2016) occur on only about one-half of their historical land area because of changes in land use, urban growth, and degradation of land, including invasions of non-native plants. The existence of many animal species depends on the existence of sagebrush steppe habitat. The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) depends on large landscapes of intact habitat of sagebrush and perennial grasses for their existence. In addition, other sagebrush-obligate animals have similar requirements and restoration of landscapes for greater sage-grouse also will benefit these animals. Once sagebrush lands are degraded, they may require restoration actions to make those lands viable habitat for supporting sagebrush-obligate animals, livestock, and wild horses, and to provide ecosystem services for humans now and for future generations. When a decision is made on where restoration treatments should be applied, there are a number of site-specific decisions managers face before selecting the appropriate type of restoration. This site-level decision tool for restoration of sagebrush steppe ecosystems is organized in nine steps. Step 1 describes the process of defining site-level restoration objectives. Step 2 describes the ecological site characteristics of the restoration site. This covers soil chemistry and texture, soil moisture and temperature regimes, and the vegetation communities the site is capable of supporting. Step 3 compares the current vegetation to the plant communities associated with the site State and Transition models. Step 4 takes the manager through the process of current land uses and past disturbances that may influence restoration success. Step 5 is a brief discussion of how weather before and after treatments may impact restoration success. Step 6 addresses restoration treatment types and their potential positive and negative impacts on the ecosystem and on habitats, especially for greater sage-grouse. We discuss when passive restoration options may be sufficient and when active restoration may be necessary to achieve restoration objectives. Step 7 addresses decisions regarding post-restoration livestock grazing management. Step 8 addresses monitoring of the restoration; we discuss important aspects associated with implementation monitoring as well as effectiveness monitoring. Step 9 takes the information learned from monitoring to determine how restoration actions in the future might be adapted to improve restoration success.

Circular↗

USGS2026

Evaluating treatment methods to control the egg masses of the crop pest Pomacea maculata

Pomacea maculata is an invasive aquatic apple snail species that poses serious ecological, agricultural, and public health threats across the southeastern United States. Its spread, particularly in Louisiana, has heavily impacted rice and crayfish farming, an industry producing over 90% of U.S. crayfish and valued at more than $250 million annually. The snail damages seedling rice, clogs crayfish traps, reduces yields, and increases labor for farmers. Moreover, it is a known host of rat lungworm ( Angiostrongylus cantonensis ), a parasite harmful to humans, making its presence in food production environments a public health concern. Controlling P. maculata is challenging due to its life cycle and reproductive strategies. The species lays large clutches of eggs above the waterline, where traditional aquatic molluscicides are ineffective. This study aimed to assess low-cost, practical methods for reducing egg hatch rates, specifically water submersion and vegetable oil application, on newly laid (day 1) and older (day 7) egg clutches. Laboratory trials on 125 egg clutches revealed that water submersion significantly reduced hatch rates and the development of dormant hatchlings, regardless of clutch age. Oil treatment only reduced hatch rates for day 1 clutches and had no effect on dormant hatchlings. These results suggest that water treatment is more broadly effective and feasible for farmers to apply without needing to determine egg age when applied on a routine, weekly basis. While oil showed limited use, its time-sensitive application limits practicality in the field. Water-based approaches offer a scalable solution for reducing P. maculata populations, but do not completely eliminate the potential for hatching and spreading. Without comprehensive control strategies targeting all life stages, the apple snail’s spread and associated impacts are expected to worsen, underscoring the urgency of continued management innovation.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Capturing interactions between nitrogen and hydrological cycles under historical climate and land use: Susquehanna watershed analysis with the GFDL land model LM3-TAN

We developed a process model LM3-TAN to assess the combined effects of direct human influences and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen (TAN) cycling. The model was developed by expanding NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land model LM3V-N of coupled terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (C-N) cycling and including new N cycling processes and inputs such as a soil denitrification, point N sources to streams (i.e., sewage), and stream transport and microbial processes. Because the model integrates ecological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes, it captures key controls of the transport and fate of N in the vegetation–soil–river system in a comprehensive and consistent framework which is responsive to climatic variations and land-use changes. We applied the model at 1/8° resolution for a study of the Susquehanna River Basin. We simulated with LM3-TAN stream dissolved organic-N, ammonium-N, and nitrate-N loads throughout the river network, and we evaluated the modeled loads for 1986–2005 using data from 16 monitoring stations as well as a reported budget for the entire basin. By accounting for interannual hydrologic variability, the model was able to capture interannual variations of stream N loadings. While the model was calibrated with the stream N loads only at the last downstream Susquehanna River Basin Commission station Marietta (40°02' N, 76°32' W), it captured the N loads well at multiple locations within the basin with different climate regimes, land-use types, and associated N sources and transformations in the sub-basins. Furthermore, the calculated and previously reported N budgets agreed well at the level of the whole Susquehanna watershed. Here we illustrate how point and non-point N sources contributing to the various ecosystems are stored, lost, and exported via the river. Local analysis of six sub-basins showed combined effects of land use and climate on soil denitrification rates, with the highest rates in the Lower Susquehanna Sub-Basin (extensive agriculture; Atlantic coastal climate) and the lowest rates in the West Branch Susquehanna Sub-Basin (mostly forest; Great Lakes and Midwest climate). In the re-growing secondary forests, most of the N from non-point sources was stored in the vegetation and soil, but in the agricultural lands most N inputs were removed by soil denitrification, indicating that anthropogenic N applications could drive substantial increase of N 2 O emission, an intermediate of the denitrification process.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS1989

Prairie basin wetlands of the Dakotas: a community profile

This description of prairie basin wetlands of the Dakotas is part of a series of community profiles on ecologically important wetlands of national significance. The shallow wetlands of the Dakotas form the bulk of the portion of the Prairie Pothole Region lying within the United States. This region is famous as the producer of at least half of North America's waterfowl and an unknown, but large, proportion of other prairie-dwelling marsh and aquatic birds.The wetlands described here lie in relatively small, shallow basins that vary greatly in their ability to maintain surface water, and in their water chemistry, which varies from fresh to hypersaline. These wetlands occur in a wide variety of hydrological settings, in an area where annual and seasonal precipitation varies greatly in form and amount. Thus the presence of surface water in these wetlands is largely unpredictable. Superimposed on these phenomena are the effects of a variety of land uses, including pasture, cultivation, mechanical forage removal, idle conditions and burning. All those factors greatly affect the plant and animal communities found in these basins.This profile covers lacustrine and palustrine basins with temporarily flooded, seasonally flooded, and semipermanently flooded water regimes. Basins with these water regimes compose about 90% of the basins in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Dakotas. This profile outlines the wetland subsystems, classes and subclasses that occur in these basins, and provides a useful reference to their geologic, climatic, hydrologic, and pedologic setting.Detailed information on the biotic environment of the wetlands dealt with in this profile will be useful to scientists and resource managers. Special recognition is paid to the macrophyte and invertebrate communities, which have dynamic qualities found in few other of the world's wetland ecosystems.The most noteworthy animal inhabitants of these basins are waterfowl, which are a resource of international concern. Because of the importance of this resource, much research on the habitat use and feeding ecology of breeding waterfowl has been conducted in the region. These topics receive special attention in this profile.The Prairie Pothole Region is a major world supplier of cereal grains. Consequently, wetlands in the region are often drained for crop production or otherwise cropped when water conditions permit. These practices degrade the value of wetlands for most species of wildlife and conflict with the aims of conservationists. The subject of human uses and impacts to prairie wetlands is thus an important part of this profile.

Biological Report↗

USGS2006

Atlantic Seaduck Project

Atlantic Seaduck Project is being conducted to learn more about the breeding and moulting areas of seaducks in northern Canada and more about their feeding ecology on wintering areas, especially Chesapeake Bay. Satellite telemetry is being used to track surf scoters wintering in Chesapeake Bay, Maryland and black scoters on migrational staging areas in New Brunswick, Canada to breeding and moulting areas in northern Canada. Various techniques used to capture the scoters included mist netting, night-lighting, and net capture guns. All captured ducks were transported to a veterinary hospital where surgery was conducted following general anaesthesia procedures. A PTT100 transmitter (39 g) manufactured by Microwave, Inc., Columbia, Maryland was implanted into the duck?s abdominal cavity with an external (percutaneous) antenna. Eight of the surf scoters from Chesapeake Bay successfully migrated to possible breeding areas in Canada and all 13 of the black scoters migrated to suspected breeding areas. Ten of the 11 black scoter males migrated to James Bay presumably for moulting. Updated information from the ARGOS Systems aboard the NOAA satellites on scoter movements was made accessible on the Patuxent Website. Habitat cover types of locations using GIS (Geographical Information Systems) and aerial photographs (in conjunction with remote sensing software) are currently being analyzed to build thematic maps with varying cosmetic layer applications. Many factors related to human population increases have been implicated in causing changes in the distribution and abundance of wintering seaducks. Analyses of the gullet (oesophagus and proventriculus) and the gizzard of seaducks are currently being conducted to determine if changes from historical data have occurred. Scoters in the Bay feed predominantly on the hooked mussel and several species of clams. The long-tailed duck appears to select the gem clam in greater amounts than other seaducks, but exhibits a diverse diet of other mollusks and crustaceans. Seaduck food habits in the Maritimes are decidedly different, where all three species of scoters feed extensively on the blue mussel. Understanding the feeding ecology of seaducks in wintering areas such as the Chesapeake Bay and the Maritimes will provide managers with a better understanding of the changes in the distribution and abundance of these ducks. Future studies will attempt to determine the effects of experimental diets varying in protein and energy levels on the physiology and behaviour of captive seaducks. An attempt will be made to determine if seaducks exhibit an endogenous rhythm in regard to body weight and condition during the winter. Foraging energetics in relation to different food sources found in the Chesapeake Bay will be measured in two large aquariums (dive tanks) with scoters and long-tailed ducks. The combined studies being conducted in the Atlantic Seaduck Project will greatly aid the conservation effort for seaducks presently being conducted throughout the world.

Book chapter↗

USGS2018

Climate change and future wildfire in the western USA: An ecological approach to nonstationarity

We developed ecologically based climate‐fire projections for the western United States. Using a finer ecological classification and fire‐relevant climate predictors, we created statistical models linking climate and wildfire area burned for ecosections, which are geographic delineations based on biophysical variables. The results indicate a gradient from purely fuel‐limited (antecedent positive water balance anomalies or negative energy balance anomalies) to purely flammability‐limited (negative water balance anomalies or positive energy balance anomalies) fire regimes across ecosections. Although there are other influences (such as human ignitions and management) on fire occurrence and area burned, seasonal climate significantly explains interannual fire area burned. Differences in the role of climate across ecosections are not random, and the relative dominance of climate predictors allows objective classification of ecosection climate‐fire relationships. Expected future trends in area burned range from massive increases, primarily in flammability limited systems near the middle of the water balance deficit distribution, to substantial decreases, in fuel‐limited nonforested systems. We predict increasing area burned in most flammability‐limited systems but predict decreasing area burned in primarily fuel‐limited systems with a flammability‐limited (“hybrid”) component. Compared to 2030–2059 (2040s), projected area burned for 2070–2099 (2080s) increases much more in the flammability and flammability‐dominated hybrid systems than those with equal control and continues to decrease in fuel‐limited hybrid systems. Exceedance probabilities for historical 95th percentile fire years are larger in exclusively flammability‐limited ecosections than in those with fuel controls. Filtering the projected results using a fire‐rotation constraint minimizes overprojection due to static vegetation assumptions, making projections more conservative.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2018

Factors affecting nesting ecology of Apalone spinifera in a northwestern Great Plains river of the United States

The nesting ecology of Apalone spinifera in large North American rivers is largely unknown despite the wide distribution of the species in these naturally dynamic ecosystems. We describe the nesting locations, timing, behavior, and habitat of A. spinifera in relation to natural and anthropogenic factors in the Missouri River. Nesting followed annual peak river stage, mostly occurred in the afternoon when air temperatures were 25°–30°C, and did not occur when human activity was nearby. Apalone spinifera nested in June in a year with average discharge (2012), but nested 20 d later in a year with a large flood event (2011). During the average discharge year, 90% of nests were found on islands, but similar proportions of nests were found on island and mainland habitats during the flood year because many islands were inundated. Nests were mostly in mixed-gravel substrates where vegetation cover was sparse or absent. Depredation occurred only after the emergence of hatchlings (∼ 60 d after nesting) and more often on nests on the mainland than on islands. Emergence rates were ∼ 1.5 times higher in the average year than the flood year, and emergence rates were higher in mixed-gravel nests than in pure-sand nests in 2011. In artificial nests, incubation temperatures averaged ∼ 4.3°C higher in mixed-gravel than in sand substrates, and freezing temperatures in winter penetrated to depths greater than the mean egg chamber depth (7.5 cm) for up to 3 wks. Therefore, incubation might be accelerated in mixed-gravel substrates. Accelerated incubation would enhance reproductive success because freezing temperatures preclude hatchlings from overwintering in nests in our study area. Mountain snowmelt-driven hydrology, coupled with the onset of freezing temperatures in autumn, might create a temporal “runoff-freeze squeeze” that limits the successful reproduction of A. spinifera in some years. However, high runoff also scoured vegetation from shorelines where A. spinifera nested in subsequent years. Natural variation in annual discharge might therefore be crucial to conservation of A. spinifera in large rivers.

Chelonian Conservation and Biology↗

USGS2016

Application of lime (CaCO 3 ) to promote forest recovery from severe acidification increases potential for earthworm invasion

The application of lime (calcium carbonate) may be a cost-effective strategy to promote forest ecosystem recovery from acid impairment, under contemporary low levels of acidic deposition. However, liming acidified soils may create more suitable habitat for invasive earthworms that cause significant damage to forest floor communities and may disrupt ecosystem processes. We investigated the potential effects of liming in acidified soils where earthworms are rare in conjunction with a whole-ecosystem liming experiment in the chronically acidified forests of the western Adirondacks (USA). Using a microcosm experiment that replicated the whole-ecosystem treatment, we evaluated effects of soil liming on Lumbricus terrestris survivorship and biomass growth. We found that a moderate lime application (raising pH from 3.1 to 3.7) dramatically increased survival and biomass of L. terrestris, likely via increases in soil pH and associated reductions in inorganic aluminum, a known toxin. Very few L. terrestris individuals survived in unlimed soils, whereas earthworms in limed soils survived, grew, and rapidly consumed leaf litter. We supplemented this experiment with field surveys of extant earthworm communities along a gradient of soil pH in Adirondack hardwood forests, ranging from severely acidified (pH < 3) to well-buffered (pH > 5). In the field, no earthworms were observed where soil pH < 3.6. Abundance and species richness of earthworms was greatest in areas where soil pH > 4.4 and human dispersal vectors, including proximity to roads and public fishing access, were most prevalent. Overall our results suggest that moderate lime additions can be sufficient to increase earthworm invasion risk where dispersal vectors are present.

New York↗

USGS2013

The Malthusian-Darwinian dynamic and the trajectory of civilization

Two interacting forces influence all populations: the Malthusian dynamic of exponential growth until resource limits are reached, and the Darwinian dynamic of innovation and adaptation to circumvent these limits through biological and/or cultural evolution. The specific manifestations of these forces in modern human society provide an important context for determining how humans can establish a sustainable relationship with the finite Earth.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2016

Does biodiversity protect humans against infectious disease? Reply

The dilution effect is the sort of idea that everyone wants to be true. If nature protects humans against infectious disease, imagine the implications: nature's value could be tallied in terms of human suffering avoided . This makes a potent argument for conservation, convincing even to those who would otherwise be disinclined to support conservation initiatives. The appeal of the dilution effect has been recognized by others: “the desire to make the case for conservation has led to broad claims regarding the benefits of nature conservation for human health” (Bauch et al. 2015 ). Randolph and Dobson ( 2012 ) were among the first to critique these claims, making the case that promotion of conservation to reduce Lyme disease risk, although well intentioned, was flawed. Along with Randolph and Dobson's critique, there have been several calls for a more nuanced scientific assessment of the relationship between biodiversity and disease transmission (Dunn 2010 , Salkeld et al. 2013 , Wood and Lafferty 2013 , Young et al. 2013 ). In response, supporters of the dilution effect have instead increased the scope of their generalizations with review papers, press releases, and, like Levi et al. (2015), letters. These responses have been successful; it is not uncommon to read papers that repeat the assertion that biodiversity generally interferes with disease transmission and that conservation will therefore generally benefit human health. Here, we explain how Levi et al. (2015) and other, similar commentaries use selective interpretation and shifting definitions to argue for the generality of the dilution effect hypothesis.

Ecology↗

USGS2022

On the multiple identities of stakeholders in wolf management in Minnesota, United States

Social identity theory offers a means to understand attitudes about wolves, with consequences for management support. Using data from a mail survey about wolves, we explored relationships among seven identities (i.e., wolf advocate, hunter, environmentalist, nature enthusiast, farmer, trapper, conservationist) using multidimensional scaling (MDS) and principal components analysis (PCA). We examined how identities correlated with political ideology, trust in a wildlife management agency, wildlife value orientations (WVOs) and attitudes about wolves, and we evaluated whether WVOs mediated the relationship between identities and attitudes. PCA suggested two factors in identifying relationships among stakeholders, while MDS and correlations found diversity among stakeholders beyond these factors. Hunter identity was most strongly associated with a domination WVO and conservative political ideology. Farmer identity was most strongly associated with agency distrust and negative wolf attitudes. Wolf advocate was most strongly associated with a mutualism WVO (i.e., beliefs that humans are meant to coexist in harmonious relationships with wildlife), agency trust, and positive wolf attitudes. Conservationist identity was positively correlated with all other identities. WVOs partially mediated the relationship between identities and attitudes.

Minnesota↗

USGS2018

Trophic implications of a phenological paradigm shift: Bald eagles and salmon in a changing climate

Climate change influences apex predators in complex ways, due to their important trophic position, capacity for resource plasticity, and sensitivity to numerous anthropogenic stressors. Bald eagles, an ecologically and culturally significant apex predator, congregate seasonally in high densities on salmon spawning rivers across the Pacific Northwest. One of the largest eagle concentrations is in the Skagit River watershed, which connects the montane wilderness of North Cascades National Park to the Puget Sound. Using multiple long‐term datasets, we evaluated local bald eagle abundance in relation to chum and coho salmon availability; salmon phenology; and the number and timing of flood events in the Skagit. We analysed changes over time as a reflection of climate change impacts, as well as differences between managed and unmanaged portions of the river. We found that peaks in chum salmon and bald eagle presence have advanced at remarkably similar rates ( c . 0.45 days/year), suggesting synchronous phenological responses within this trophic relationship. Yet the temporal relationship between chum salmon spawning and flood events, which remove salmon carcasses from the system, has not remained constant. This has resulted in a paradigm shift whereby the peak of chum spawning now occurs before the first flood event of the season rather than after. The interval between peak chum and first flood event was a significant predictor of bald eagle presence: as this interval grew over time (by nearly one day per year), bald eagle counts declined, with a steady decrease in bald eagle observations since 2002. River section was also an important factor, with fewer flood events, and more eagle observations occurring in the river section experiencing direct hydroelectric flow management. Synthesis and applications . The effects of climate change and hydroelectric management contribute to a complex human footprint in the North Cascades National Park, an otherwise largely natural ecosystem. By accounting for the differential phenological impacts of climate change on bald eagles, salmon, and flood events, Park managers and the operators of the hydroelectric system can more effectively ensure the resilience of the eagle–salmon relationship along the Skagit River.

Washington↗