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USGS2013

An automated cross-correlation based event detection technique and its application to surface passive data set

In studies on heavy oil, shale reservoirs, tight gas and enhanced geothermal systems, the use of surface passive seismic data to monitor induced microseismicity due to the fluid flow in the subsurface is becoming more common. However, in most studies passive seismic records contain days and months of data and manually analysing the data can be expensive and inaccurate. Moreover, in the presence of noise, detecting the arrival of weak microseismic events becomes challenging. Hence, the use of an automated, accurate and computationally fast technique for event detection in passive seismic data is essential. The conventional automatic event identification algorithm computes a running-window energy ratio of the short-term average to the long-term average of the passive seismic data for each trace. We show that for the common case of a low signal-to-noise ratio in surface passive records, the conventional method is not sufficiently effective at event identification. Here, we extend the conventional algorithm by introducing a technique that is based on the cross-correlation of the energy ratios computed by the conventional method. With our technique we can measure the similarities amongst the computed energy ratios at different traces. Our approach is successful at improving the detectability of events with a low signal-to-noise ratio that are not detectable with the conventional algorithm. Also, our algorithm has the advantage to identify if an event is common to all stations (a regional event) or to a limited number of stations (a local event). We provide examples of applying our technique to synthetic data and a field surface passive data set recorded at a geothermal site.

Geophysical Prospecting↗

USGS2023

Reanalysis indicates little evidence of reduction in eagle mortality rate by automated curtailment of wind turbines

Unintended consequences of renewable energy development include collision-caused deaths of birds and bats. Energy companies may risk prosecution if protected species are among the casualties. Shutting down turbines during high collision-risk conditions could reduce mortality rates, and several companies are developing systems to identify such conditions. A recent peer-reviewed article published in the Journal of Applied Ecology reported a remarkable ‘82% (75%–89%) reduction in the fatality rate’ of eagles at a wind energy facility due to a device marketed as Identiflight®—remarkable because of the impressive effect size and the extremely high level of precision. We show that reported results stem from four major errors, which, when corrected, give an unremarkable estimate of 50% (−159%, 89%) reduction (or possible increase) in the fatality rate. The errors include the following: (i) Ignoring annual variation . They compare the average number of eagle fatalities over 4 years before activation of Identiflight® to the number in a single year after, ignoring annual variation in fatalities. (ii) Unfounded causal inference . Lack of replication (one treatment year at one site) is ignored, leading to unwarranted causal inference. (iii) Inflated effect size . Effect size is inflated by assuming (without providing evidence) that the difference in fatality relative to the mean at a neighbouring site would be exactly repeated at the treatment site. Furthermore, the observed difference in fatalities at the control site depends strongly on the arbitrarily chosen date distinguishing the ‘Before’ and ‘After’ periods, yielding unreliable results. (iv) Inconsistency of data . It is unclear why 7 of 42 reported eagle fatalities were not included in the data analyzed, potentially further inflating the estimated effect size. Synthesis and applications . The recent claim, published in the Journal of Applied Ecology, that ‘Eagle fatalities are reduced by automated curtailment of wind turbines’ is not supported by the data but stems from errors that led to strongly overstated effect size and precision, and unfounded inference. In theory, automated curtailment has obvious potential for reducing eagle fatalities, but several more years of data at several locations and appropriate statistical analyses will be required to evaluate its effectiveness and to inform management prescriptions involving this technology.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2017

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ( E p ) as inputs. Because E p is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of E p must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several E p methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible E p method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress ( E w ). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used E p methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in E p associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the E p -change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration ( E ), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2021

Adaptive management to improve eagle conservation at terrestrial wind facilities

The development and installation of renewable energy comes with environmental cost, including the death of wildlife. These costs occur locally, and seem small compared to the global loss of biodiversity. However, failure to acknowledge uncertainties around these costs affects local conservation, and may lead to the loss of populations or species. Working with these uncertainties can result in adaptive management plans designed to benefit renewable energy development and conservation. An example is the U.S. government's policy for managing bald ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) and golden ( Aquila chrysaetos ) eagle deaths at terrestrial wind facilities. Using records from 422 U.S. wind facilities we improved the precision of estimates of exposure (8.79 eagle minutes hr −1 km −3 , SD: 13.64) and collision probability (0.0058 birds per minute of exposure, SD: 0.0038) currently used in U.S. policy. The new estimates for bald (exposure: 3.19 eagle minutes hr −1 km −3 , SD: 2.583; collision probability: 0.007025 eagles per minute of exposure, SD: 0.004379) and golden (exposure: 1.21 eagle minutes hr −1 km −3 , SD: 0.352; collision probability: 0.005648 birds per minute of exposure, SD: 0.004413) eagles had a smaller mean and standard deviation. Thus, their implementation within the government's adaptive management framework could help refine the balance between energy consumption and conservation.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2018

Food‐web structure and ecosystem function in the Laurentian Great Lakes—Toward a conceptual model

The relationship between food‐web structure (i.e., trophic connections, including diet, trophic position, and habitat use, and the strength of these connections) and ecosystem functions (i.e., biological, geochemical, and physical processes in an ecosystem, including decomposition, production, nutrient cycling, and nutrient and energy flows among community members) determines how an ecosystem responds to perturbations, and thus is key to understanding the adaptive capacity of a system (i.e., ability to respond to perturbation without loss of essential functions). Given nearly ubiquitous changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic impacts on global lake ecosystems, understanding the adaptive capacity of food webs supporting important resources, such as commercial, recreational, and subsistence fisheries, is vital to ecological and economic stability. Herein, we describe a conceptual framework that can be used to explore food‐web structure and associated ecosystem functions in large lakes. We define three previously recognised broad habitat compartments that constitute large lake food webs (nearshore, pelagic, and profundal). We then consider, at three levels, how energy and nutrients flow: (a) into each basal resource compartment; (b) within each compartment; and (c) among multiple compartments (coupling). Flexible shifts in food‐web structures (e.g., via consumers altering their diet or habitat) that sustain these flows in the face of perturbations provide evidence for adaptive capacity. We demonstrate the conceptual framework through a synthesis of food‐web structure and ecosystem function in the Laurentian Great Lakes, with emphasis on the upper trophic levels (i.e., fishes). Our synthesis showed evidence of notable adaptive capacity. For example, fishes increased benthic coupling in response to invasion by mussels and round gobies. However, we also found evidence of loss of adaptive capacity through species extirpations (e.g., widespread collapse in the abundance and diversity of ciscoes, Coregonus spp., except in Lake Superior). In large freshwater lakes, fishery managers have traditionally taken a top‐down approach, focusing on stocking and harvest policy. By contrast, water quality managers have focused on nutrient effects on chemical composition and lower trophic levels of the ecosystem. The synthesised conceptual model provides resource managers a tool to more systematically interpret how lower food‐web dynamics influence harvestable fish populations, and vice versa, and to act accordingly such that sustainable resource practices can be achieved. We identify key gaps in knowledge that impede a fuller understanding of the adaptive capacities of large lakes. In general, we found a greater uncertainty in our understanding of processes influencing energy and nutrient flow within and among habitats than flows into the system.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2017

Increased Arctic sea ice drift alters adult female polar bear movements and energetics

Recent reductions in thickness and extent have increased drift rates of Arctic sea ice. Increased ice drift could significantly affect the movements and the energy balance of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) which forage, nearly exclusively, on this substrate. We used radio-tracking and ice drift data to quantify the influence of increased drift on bear movements, and we modeled the consequences for energy demands of adult females in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas during two periods with different sea ice characteristics. Westward and northward drift of the sea ice used by polar bears in both regions increased between 1987–1998 and 1999–2013. To remain within their home ranges, polar bears responded to the higher westward ice drift with greater eastward movements, while their movements north in the spring and south in fall were frequently aided by ice motion. To compensate for more rapid westward ice drift in recent years, polar bears covered greater daily distances either by increasing their time spent active (7.6%–9.6%) or by increasing their travel speed (8.5%–8.9%). This increased their calculated annual energy expenditure by 1.8%–3.6% (depending on region and reproductive status), a cost that could be met by capturing an additional 1–3 seals/year. Polar bears selected similar habitats in both periods, indicating that faster drift did not alter habitat preferences. Compounding reduced foraging opportunities that result from habitat loss; changes in ice drift, and associated activity increases, likely exacerbate the physiological stress experienced by polar bears in a warming Arctic.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2014

Quality and age of shallow groundwater in the Bakken Formation production area, Williston Basin, Montana and North Dakota

The quality and age of shallow groundwater in the Bakken Formation production area were characterized using data from 30 randomly distributed domestic wells screened in the upper Fort Union Formation. Comparison of inorganic and organic chemical concentrations to health based drinking-water standards, correlation analysis of concentrations with oil and gas well locations, and isotopic data give no indication that energy-development activities affected groundwater quality. It is important, however, to consider these results in the context of groundwater age. Most samples were recharged before the early 1950s and had 14C ages ranging from 30,000 years. Thus, domestic wells may not be as well suited for detecting contamination associated with recent surface spills as shallower wells screened near the water table. Old groundwater could be contaminated directly by recent subsurface leaks from imperfectly cemented oil and gas wells, but horizontal groundwater velocities calculated from 14C ages imply that the contaminants would still be less than 0.5 km from their source. For the wells sampled in this study, the median distance to the nearest oil and gas well was 4.6 km. Because of the slow velocities, a long-term commitment to groundwater monitoring in the upper Fort Union Formation is needed to assess the effects of energy development on groundwater quality. In conjunction with that effort, monitoring could be done closer to energy-development activities to increase the likelihood of early detection of groundwater contamination if it did occur.

Montana, North Dakota↗

USGS2009

Using time-dependent models to investigate body condition and growth rate of the giant gartersnake

Identifying links between phenotypic attributes and fitness is a primary goal of reproductive ecology. Differences in within-year patterns of body condition between sexes of gartersnakes in relation to reproduction and growth are not fully understood. We conducted an 11-year field study of body condition and growth rate of the giant gartersnake Thamnophis gigas across 13 study areas in the Central Valley of California, USA. We developed a priori mixed effects models of body condition index (BCI), which included covariates of time, sex and snout-vent length and reported the best-approximating models using an information theoretic approach. Also, we developed models of growth rate index (GRI) using covariates of sex and periods based on reproductive behavior. The largest difference in BCI between sexes, as predicted by a non-linear (cubic) time model, occurred during the mating period when female body condition (0.014??0.001 se) was substantially greater than males (-0.027??0.002 se). Males likely allocated energy to search for mates, while females likely stored energy for embryonic development. We also provided evidence that males use more body energy reserves than females during hibernation, perhaps because of different body temperatures between sexes. We found GRI of male snakes was substantially lower during the mating period than during a non-mating period, which indicated that a trade-off existed between searching for mates and growth. These findings contribute to our understanding of snake ecology in a Mediterranean climate. ?? 2009 The Zoological Society of London.

Journal of Zoology↗

USGS2007

Evapotranspiration and canopy resistance at an undeveloped prairie in a humid subtropical climate

Reliable estimates of evapotranspiration from areas of wildland vegetation are needed for many types of water-resource investigations. However, little is known about surface fluxes from many areally important vegetation types, and relatively few comparisons have been made to examine how well evapotranspiration models can predict evapotranspiration for soil-, climate-, or vegetation-types that differ from those under which the models have been calibrated. In this investigation at a prairie site in west-central Florida, latent heat flux (λ E ) computed from the energy balance and alternatively by eddy covariance during a 15-month period differed by 4 percent and 7 percent on hourly and daily time scales, respectively. Annual evapotranspiration computed from the energy balance and by eddy covariance were 978 and 944 mm, respectively. An hourly Penman-Monteith (PM) evapotranspiration model with stomatal control predicated on water-vapor-pressure deficit at canopy level, incoming solar radiation intensity, and soil water deficit was developed and calibrated using surface fluxes from eddy covariance. Model-predicted λ E agreed closely with λ E computed from the energy balance except when moisture from dew or precipitation covered vegetation surfaces. Finally, an hourly PM model developed for an Amazonian pasture predicted λ E for the Florida prairie with unexpected reliability. Additional comparisons of PM-type models that have been developed for differing types of short vegetation could aid in assessing interchangeability of such models.

Florida↗

USGS1970

Green River oil shale—concept of origin extended: An interdisciplinary problem being attacked from both ends

A much fuller understanding of the Green River oil shale and its organic chemistry will emerge when the geologists, paleontologists, organic chemists, biologists, paleolimnologists, and biogeochemists, who are now working on it, integrate their findings with those of the others. We know from the geology, paleontology, and paleolimnology that the biologic progenitors of the organic substance in the Green River oil shale could only have been microscopic algae, and other micro-organisms, that grew and accumulated in the central parts of large, shallow lakes that existed under a subtropical climate. The only nonlacustrine organic components were wind-blown, or water borne, pollens and waxy spores. These, however, made up a large and important part of the organic-rich sediment. The geology of the Green River Formation shows that as the algal and pollen-rich sediment was buried deeper and deeper, progressively more of its pore water and dissolved constituents were expressed. Static pressures may have reached as much as 210 kg cm −2 , and the ambient temperature rose, with depth, to somewhere within the range between 90° and 125° C. Beneath the ancient lakes a tectonically quiescent environment persisted for tens of millions of years after their organic sediments had been deeply buried. The organic material of the Green River oil shale can be divided into three fractions—a small bitumen fraction that is extractable with common organic solvents, a major fraction called koerogen that consists of insoluble pyrobitumens, and a somewhat smaller inert fraction that is neither soluble nor does it yield oil on pyrolysis. As all three fractions originated in the same algal, pollen-rich sediment, an explanation for their marked differences must be sought in their geochemical history or from a study of the modern analogues of their progenitors. The components of the bitumen fraction consisted of “biological markers” that were inherited from the Eocene plants and animals in which they originally formed. Diagenesis has changed these hydrogen-rich compounds, but not enough to obscure their provenance. Kerogen presumably became insoluble because its hydrogen-rich components polymerized. My speculation is that the inert fraction was derived from a polyphenolic substance produced in the original algal ooze by “non-enzymatic browning.” Only three Classes of non-marine algae need be considered as progenitors of the Green River oil shale; the Xanthophyceae, the Chlorophyceae, and the Cyanophyceae. Only the Cyanophyceae (the blue-green algae) meet the biologic and paleontologic requirements to have served as the dominant precursors of the Green River oil shale. Several other oil shales clearly were derived from the Xanthophyceae, specifically Botryococcus. The blue-green algal ooze now forming, and accumulating, in Mud Lake, Florida, has been studied biologically and chemically as a possible present-day analogue of the Green River oil shale precursor. In this small lake we have established the fact that a bacterial inhibitor is produced, which inhibits decay of the algae and thereby permits the accumulation of energy-rich organic compounds. We infer that a similar indigenous inhibitor must have acted in the Eocene lakes to permit them to become the huge energy sinks they were. Studies of the organic chemistry of living blue-green algae show that they contain appreciable percentages of fatty acids, hydrocarbons, and very large percentages of proteins. These promising, energy-rich compounds could serve as source materials for potential conversion into oil shale in the geologic future. Certain marine anaerobic bacteria convert fatty acids into aliphatic hydrocarbons. Fresh-water obligate anaerobes should be investigated to see if they also convert fatty acids into hydrocarbons. The part played by aquatic animals that live in, or on, freshwater algal ooze in synthesizing hydrocarbons has not been investigated, but deserves attention. Pollen grains, of course, must be considered an important precursor of hydrocarbons produced on pyrolysis. They contain far higher percentages of long chain hydrocarbons and alcohols than most plant materials. The major problem ahead is to account for the progressive hydrogenation and subsequent polymerization of the relatively oxygen-rich constituents of algae such as the polysaccharides, amino acids, ammo sugars, and fatty acids into the insoluble pyrobitumens that constitute, particularly, the kerogen fraction of the Green River oil shale.

Wyoming↗

USGS2009

Supply and dispersal of flood sediment from a steep, tropical watershed: Hanalei Bay, Kauai, Hawaii, USA

In contrast to many small, mountainous watersheds in temperate coastal regions, where fluvial discharge and wave energy commonly coincide, deposition and reworking of tropical flood sediment can be seasonally decoupled, and this has important implications for coral-reef ecosystems. An understanding of the interaction between tropical flood sedimentation and wave climate is essential to identifying and mitigating effects of watershed changes on coral reefs as urbanization and climate change proceed. Sedimentary facies and isotopic properties of sediment in Hanalei Bay, on the island of Kaua'i, Hawai'i, USA, were used to assess deposition and reworking of flood deposits from the Hanalei River in a case study demonstrating the potential ecosystem effects of runoff from a steep, tropical watershed. In Hanalei Bay, the youngest and thickest terrigenous sediment was consistently present near the river mouth and in a bathymetric depression that acted as at least a temporary sediment sink. During this 2 yr study, the largest flood events occurred in late winter and spring 2006; substantial terrestrial sediment delivered by those floods still remained in the bay as of June 2006 because oceanic conditions were not sufficiently energetic to transport all of the sediment offshore. Additional sediment was deposited in the bay by a summer 2006 flood that coincided with seasonal low wave energy. In most years, flood sediment accumulating in the bay and on its fringing reefs would be remobilized and advected out of the bay during winter, when the wave climate is energetic. Turbidity and sedimentation on corals resulting from late spring and summer floods during low wave energy could have a greater impact on coral-reef ecosystems than floods in other seasons, an effect that could be exacerbated if the incidence and sediment load of tropical summer floods increase due to urbanization and climate change.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Upper crustal seismic velocity structure of the Hayward fault zone, San Francisco Bay, California, USA: Results from the 2016 East Bay Seismic Experiment (EBSI-16)

We developed Vp, Vs, Vp / Vs ratio, and Poisson’s ratio models of the uppermost crust (<4 km depth) from the eastern San Francisco (SF) Bay (California, USA) to near the Calaveras fault along a 15-km-long, linear profile. Upper crustal velocities are highly variable beneath, west, and well east of the Hayward fault. We observe eight notable features, from west to east: (1) Near San Francisco Bay, there is an ~2-km-wide structure with high Vp / Vs ratios (up to 5) and Poisson’s ratios (up to 0.48) extending from the surface to the base of our model, which we suggest the structure is a near-vertical fault that lies along a straight-line projection between the Silver Creek fault to the south and the Point Richmond fault to the north. The structure may be part of an ~90-km-long fault along the eastern SF Bay. (2) The western East Bay Plain, the lower lying area between the bay and the hills, includes up to 800 m of low-velocity sediments ( Vp ~1600–3000 m/s, Vs ~500 m/s to ~1000 m/s), underlain by higher velocity basement rocks ( Vp ~3000–5800 m/s; Vs ~1000–1500 m/s). (3) Between ~1 km and 3 km east of the Bay shoreline, sediments thin in a series of steps (likely faults) toward the Hayward fault. (4) Between ~3 km west and ~1 km east of the Hayward fault (at the East Chabot fault) at depths greater than 1 km, basement Vp (up to 6000 m/s) and Vs (up to 2800 m/s) are high, and Vp / Vs ratios (<2) and Poisson’s ratios (<0.3) are low, suggesting crystalline rocks. Furthermore, a near-vertical zone of low Vp / Vs ratios and Poisson’s ratios is between near-surface traces of the Hayward and East Chabot faults, likely corresponding to the San Leandro Gabbro of Ponce et al. (2003) . (5) Eastward of the East Chabot fault in the upper 1.5 km, basement Vp (~3000 m/s to ~4200 m/s) and Vs (~1200–2000 m/s) are lower than those west of the fault. (6) In the eastern Hayward/Oakland Hills, there are zones of laterally varying, high- and low-velocity ( Vp ~2500–3000 m/s) Jurassic–Cretaceous and Tertiary sediments in the shallow subsurface that likely extend much deeper than imaged. (7) Seismic energy that propagates westward from sources east of the Hayward fault (HF) appear weaker than energy that propagates eastward from sources west of the HF, suggesting that the HF acts as a partial barrier to shallow seismic energy propagation into the more populated eastern SF Bay area. (8) Unlike many fault zones, it appears that the active trace of the Hayward fault (in our study area) is not cored by a prominent, low-velocity zone relative to rocks to the east and west of the active trace. However, the active trace does mark a prominent change from relatively higher velocities to the west and lower velocities to the east.

California↗

USGS2015

Coupling age-structured stock assessment and fish bioenergetics models: a system of time-varying models for quantifying piscivory patterns during the rapid trophic shift in the main basin of Lake Huron

We quantified piscivory patterns in the main basin of Lake Huron during 1984–2010 and found that the biomass transfer from prey fish to piscivores remained consistently high despite the rapid major trophic shift in the food webs. We coupled age-structured stock assessment models and fish bioenergetics models for lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ), Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), walleye ( Sander vitreus ), and lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ). The model system also included time-varying parameters or variables of growth, length–mass relations, maturity schedules, energy density, and diets. These time-varying models reflected the dynamic connections that a fish cohort responded to year-to-year ecosystem changes at different ages and body sizes. We found that the ratio of annual predation by lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye combined with the biomass indices of age-1 and older alewives ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) and rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) increased more than tenfold during 1987–2010, and such increases in predation pressure were structured by relatively stable biomass of the three piscivores and stepwise declines in the biomass of alewives and rainbow smelt. The piscivore stability was supported by the use of alternative energy pathways and changes in relative composition of the three piscivores. In addition, lake whitefish became a new piscivore by feeding on round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ). Their total fish consumption rivaled that of the other piscivores combined, although fish were still a modest proportion of their diet. Overall, the use of alternative energy pathways by piscivores allowed the increases in predation pressure on dominant diet species.

Lake Huron↗

USGS1974

Effect of feeding brown trout (Salmo trutta) a diet pelleted in dry and moist forms

Growth rate, body composition, and intake of either dry matter or energy did not differ significantly ( P > 0.05) between two groups of juvenile brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) fed either a low- or high-moisture semipurified diet at different rates to compensate for a diet energy density gradient. Feed/gain efficiency, on an as-fed basis, was significantly greater ( P < 0.01) in fish fed the low-moisture diet, but did not differ ( P > 0.05) when compared on the basis of dry matter or energy intake.

Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada↗

USGS2025

The rise of U.S. photovoltaics: An exploration of land use density trends in large-scale solar facility attributes, 2012-2021

An energy transition is underway in the United States; renewable energy generation is now on par with coal and nuclear generation. The number of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities increased approximately tenfold between 2012 and 2021, with an associated 25-fold increase in cumulative installed capacity. With ambitious decarbonization and renewable energy deployment goals at both the federal and state levels, deployments of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities will continue apace. This growth is likely to be complex with ripples of impacts felt throughout different aspects of society, and thus accurate solar land use metrics allowing more accurate predictions are of value to policymakers, planners, and other stakeholders in the future photovoltaic build-out. In this paper, we leverage data from the newly released US Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Database to examine recent trends in large-scale solar photovoltaic land use. We analyze the relationships between solar array capacity density (W/acre) and a range of facility attributes to better understand the future land requirements of solar capacity expansion over the coming years. Installed capacity was the single strongest determinant of solar array area. However, we found substantial variation in capacity density across facility attributes, including mount type, latitude, urbanicity, time, and prior land use.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2025

Broadband stochastic simulation of earthquake ground motions with multiple strong phases with an application to the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake

Stochastic ground motion simulation models are often less accurate at lower frequencies than at higher frequencies when fitting recorded data unless supplemented by a deterministic forward directivity velocity pulse model. Moreover, time-modulated stochastic models, which adjust ground motion amplitudes over time, typically use functions that fail to capture multiple strong-motion phases. The February 2023 Turkey (Türkiye) earthquake exhibited diverse recordings, including near-fault and far-field motions with pulse-like and non-pulse-like characteristics, along with single and multiple strong-motion phases. To better represent such a diverse set of recordings, this study enhances a fully non-stationary site-based stochastic model without combining it with a deterministic model. Improvements include a new band-pass filter with upper- and lower-frequency limits, which refines the representation of the low-frequency content. Moreover, a time-modulating function that can represent energy arrival in multiple strong phases is introduced. The reference model’s parameters are identified by fitting to the energy content, zero-level crossings, and cumulative counts of positive-minima and negative-maxima of a target accelerogram. This fitting procedure is modified to address the increased number of parameters. These improvements broaden the reference model’s applicability while preserving its simplicity, a key aspect appealing to engineering practitioners. The improved model’s applicability is demonstrated by simulating a dataset from the February 2023 Türkiye earthquake, and the accuracy is tested using a pulse-like Next Generation Attenuation Relationships for Western United States dataset. Validations are performed based on total energy, zero-level crossings, Fourier amplitude spectrum, elastic response spectra, and peak ground motion parameters. Validations are performed schematically in the time and frequency domains and quantitatively using goodness-of-fit scores, various validation-metrics errors, and inter-period correlations. Overall, the improved stochastic model can effectively simulate a set of diverse ground motion recordings, including near-fault pulse-like records, records with multiple strong phases, and far-field motions across a broad frequency range.

Kahramanmaraş↗

USGS2023

BatTool: Projecting bat populations facing multiple stressors using a demographic model

Bats provide ecologically and agriculturally important ecosystem services but are currently experiencing population declines caused by multiple environmental stressors, including mortality from white-nose syndrome and wind energy development. Analyses of the current and future health and viability of these species may support conservation management decision making. Demographic modeling provides a quantitative tool for decision makers and conservation managers to make more informed decisions, but widespread adoption of these tools can be limited because of the complexity of the mathematical, statistical, and computational components involved in implementing these models. In this work, we provide an exposition of the BatTool R package, detailing the primary components of the matrix projection model, a publicly accessible graphical user interface ( https://rconnect.usgs.gov/battool ) facilitating user-defined scenario analyses, and its intended uses and limitations (Wiens et al., US Geol Surv Data Release 2022; Wiens et al., US Geol Surv Softw Release 2022). We present a case study involving wind energy permitting, weighing the effects of potential mortality caused by a hypothetical wind energy facility on the projected abundance of four imperiled bat species in the Midwestern United States.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2016

Sex differences in contaminant concentrations of fish: a synthesis

Comparison of whole-fish polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) and total mercury (Hg) concentrations in mature males with those in mature females may provide insights into sex differences in behavior, metabolism, and other physiological processes. In eight species of fish, we observed that males exceeded females in whole-fish PCB concentration by 17 to 43%. Based on results from hypothesis testing, we concluded that these sex differences were most likely primarily driven by a higher rate of energy expenditure, stemming from higher resting metabolic rate (or standard metabolic rate (SMR)) and higher swimming activity, in males compared with females. A higher rate of energy expenditure led to a higher rate of food consumption, which, in turn, resulted in a higher rate of PCB accumulation. For two fish species, the growth dilution effect also made a substantial contribution to the sex difference in PCB concentrations, although the higher energy expenditure rate for males was still the primary driver. Hg concentration data were available for five of the eight species. For four of these five species, the ratio of PCB concentration in males to PCB concentration in females was substantially greater than the ratio of Hg concentration in males to Hg concentration in females. In sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), a very primitive fish, the two ratios were nearly identical. The most plausible explanation for this pattern was that certain androgens, such as testosterone and 11-ketotestosterone, enhanced Hg-elimination rate in males. In contrast, long-term elimination of PCBs is negligible for both sexes. According to this explanation, males ingest Hg at a higher rate than females, but also eliminate Hg at a higher rate than females, in fish species other than sea lamprey. Male sea lamprey do not possess either of the above-specified androgens. These apparent sex differences in SMRs, activities, and Hg-elimination rates in teleost fishes may also apply, to some degree, to higher vertebrates including humans. Our synthesis findings will be useful in: (1) developing sex-specific bioenergetics models for fish, (2) developing sex-specific risk assessment models for exposure of humans and wildlife to contaminants, and (3) refining Hg mass balance models for fish and higher vertebrates.

Biology of Sex Differences↗