SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Ecosystem Services”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,099 records · Page 61Linked to original sources

USGS1995

Appraising status of the Yellowstone grizzly bear population by counting females with cubs-of-the-year

The grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horriblilis ) in the lower United States was declared threatened in 1975 under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (16 U.S.C. 15-31-1544). According to that Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service had to prepare a plan to recover populations to levels where the species could be conserved and delisted from its threatened status. The Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1993) uses counts of distinct females with cubs-of-the-year as a recovery parameter in several grizzly bear ecosystems. The total number of these females is assumed to be the minimum number with cubs born in the current year. To our knowledge, this technique, its methodology, and value as a population indicator have never been adequately explained or discussed. Thus, we describe the methodology and assess its potential for continued use in the Yellowstone ecosystem.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2013

Restoring the Great Lakes: DOI stories of success and partnership in implementing the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

The Great Lakes are a monumentally unique national treasure containing nearly ninety-five percent of the United States' fresh surface water. Formed by receding glaciers, the Great Lakes support a thriving, resilient ecosystem rich with fish, wildlife, and abundant natural resources. The Great Lakes also support an array of commercial uses, including shipping, and provide a source of recreation, drinking water, and other critical services that drive the economy of the region and the Nation. Regrettably, activities such as clear cutting of mature forests, over-harvesting of fish populations, industrial pollution, invasive species, and agricultural runoffs have degraded these treasured lakes over the decades creating long-term impacts to the surrounding watershed. Fortunately, the people who live, work, and recreate in the region recognize the critical importance of a healthy Great Lakes ecosystem, and have come together to support comprehensive restoration. To stimulate and promote the goal of a healthy Great Lakes region, President Obama and Congress created the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) in 2009. This program provides the seed money to clean up legacy pollution, restore habitats, protect wildlife, combat invasive species, and address agricultural runoff in the Great Lakes watershed. At the same time GLRI promotes public outreach, education, accountability, and partnerships.

The Great Lakes↗

USGS2019

Fire, forests and city water supply

Forest landscapes generate 57 percent of runoff worldwide and supply water to more than 4 billion people (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). As the world population continues to increase, there is a strong need to understand how forest processes link together in a cascade to provide people with water services like hydropower, aquaculture, drinking water and flood protection (Carvalho-Santos, Honrado and Hein, 2014). Wildfire is a major disturbance affecting forested watersheds and the water they provide (Box 1) (Paton et al., 2015). Several regions have experienced shifts in wildfires from natural ignition sources (primarily lightning) to ignitions dominated by human activities, especially in areas where populations are increasing (Moritz et al., 2014; Balch et al., 2017). Occasional wildfire is essential for the health and functioning of fire-adapted ecosystems through its effects on nutrient cycling, plant diversity and succession, and pest regulation (Pausas and Keeley, 2019). It also reduces the risk of subsequent wildfires until a forest has accumulated sufficient fuels and conditions are conducive for another fire. Extreme and hazardous wildfires, on the other hand, can cause erosion, gullying, soil loss and flooding – and, in severe cases, even debris flows and flash floods – by removing the protective functions of forests on hillsides (Ebel and Moody, 2017). Extreme wildfires have become more common after decades of fire suppression, allowing forests to become much denser with vegetation and causing more fuels to build up over time. Combined with increasing summer drought, this can have impacts on water yield and the ability of upstream forests to deliver high-quality water because forest vegetation uses less water immediately after fire and, in environments influenced by snow, more snow can accumulate in forest clearings (Kinoshita and Hogue, 2015; Hallema et al., 2019). Therefore, accounting for wildfire impacts on forests in water planning has become a priority for the nexus of fire, water and society or, in other words, the connection between fire risk and water security (Figure 1) (Martin, 2016). In this article, we discuss managed forest landscapes as nature-based solutions for water and explore how fire affects the provision of water-related services.

Unasylva↗

USGS2019

Analysis and visualization of coastal ocean model data in the cloud

The traditional flow of coastal ocean model data is from High Performance Computing (HPC) centers to the local desktop, or to a file server where just the data needed can be extracted via services such as OPeNDAP. Analysis and visualization is then conducted using local hardware and software. This requires moving large amounts of data across the internet as well as acquiring and maintaining local hardware, software and support personnel. Further, as data sets increase in size, the traditional workflow may not be scalable. Alternatively, recent advances make it possible to move data from HPC to the Cloud and perform interactive, scalable, data-proximate analysis and visualization, with simply a web browser user interface. We use the framework advanced by the NSF-funded Pangeo project, a free, open-source Python system which provides multi-user login via JupyterHub and parallel analysis via Dask, both running in Docker containers orchestrated by Kubernetes. Data is stored in the Zarr format, a Cloud-friendly ndarray format that allows performant extraction of data by anyone without relying on data services like OPeNDAP. Interactive visual exploration of data on massive model grids is made possible by new tools in the Python PyViz ecosystem, which can render maps at screen resolution, dynamically updating on pan and zoom operations. Two example are given: (1) calculating the maximum water level at each grid cell from a 53GB, 720 time step, 9 million node triangular mesh ADCIRC simulation of Hurricane Ike; (2) creating a dashboard for visualizing data from the curvilinear orthogonal COAWST/ROMS forecast model.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering↗

USGS1999

Design approaches in quarrying and pit-mining reclamation

Reclaimed mine sites have been evaluated so that the public, industry, and land planners may recognize there are innovative designs available for consideration and use. People tend to see cropland, range, and road cuts as a necessary part of their everyday life, not as disturbed areas despite their high visibility. Mining also generates a disturbed landscape, unfortunately one that many consider waste until reclaimed by human beings. The development of mining provides an economic base and use of a natural resource to improve the quality of human life. Equally important is a sensitivity to the geologic origin and natural pattern of the land. Wisely shaping out environment requires a design plan and product that responds to a site's physiography, ecology, function, artistic form, and publication perception. An examination of selected sites for their landscape design suggested nine approaches for mining reclamation. The oldest design approach around is nature itself. Humans may sometimes do more damage going to an area in the attempt to repair it. Given enough geologic time, a small-site area, and stable adjacent ecosystems, disturbed areas recover without mankind's input. Visual screens and buffer zones conceal the facility in a camouflage approach. Typically, earth berms, fences, and plantings are used to disguise the mining facility. Restoration targets social or economic benefits by reusing the site for public amenities, most often in urban centers with large populations. A mitigation approach attempts to protect the environment and return mined areas to use with scientific input. The reuse of cement, building rubble, macadam meets only about 10% of the demand from aggregate. Recognizing the limited supply of mineral resources and encouraging recycling efforts are steps are steps in a renewable resource approach. An educative design approach effectively communicates mining information through outreach, land stewardship, and community service. Mine sites used for art show a celebration of beauty and experience -- abstract geology. The last design approach combines art and science in a human-nature ecosystem termed integration. With environmental concerns, an operating or reclaimed mine site can no longer be considered isolated from its surroundings. Site analysis of mine works needs to go beyond site-specific information and relate to the regional context of the greater landscape. Understanding design approach can turn undesirable features (mines and pits) into something perceived as desirable by the public.

Book↗

USGS1997

A science-based, watershed strategy to support effective remediation of abandoned mine lands

A U.S. Geological Survey Abandoned Mine Lands Initiative will develop a strategy for gathering and communicating the scientific information needed to formulate effective and cost-efficient remediation of abandoned mine lands. A watershed approach will identify, characterize, and remediate contaminated sites that have the most profound effect on water and ecosystem quality within a watershed. The Initiative will be conducted during 1997 through 2001 in two pilot watersheds, the Upper Animas River watershed in Colorado and the Boulder River watershed in Montana. Initiative efforts are being coordinated with the U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, and other stakeholders which are using the resulting scientific information to design and implement remediation activities. The Initiative has the following eight objective-oriented components: estimate background (pre-mining) conditions; define baseline (current) conditions; identify target sites (major contaminant sources); characterize target sites and processes affecting contaminant dispersal; characterize ecosystem health and controlling processes at target sites; develop remediation goals and monitoring network; provide an integrated, quality-assured and accessible data network; and document lessons learned for future applications of the watershed approach.

Colorado;Montana↗

USGS2022

A comprehensive assessment of mangrove species and carbon stock on Pohnpei, Micronesia

Mangrove forests are the most important ecosystems on Pohnpei Island, Federated States of Micronesia, as the island communities of the central Pacific rely on the forests for many essential services including protection from sea-level rise that is occurring at a greater pace than the global average. As part of a multi-component assessment to evaluate vulnerabilities of mangrove forests on Pohnpei, mangrove forests were mapped at two points in time: 1983 and 2018. In 2018, the island had 6,426 ha of mangrove forest. Change analysis indicated a slight (0.76%) increase of mangrove area between 1983 and 2018, contrasting with global mangrove area declines. Forest structure and aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks were inventoried using a systematic sampling of field survey plots and extrapolated to the island using k-nearest neighbor and random forest species models. A gridded or wall to wall approach is suggested when possible for defining carbon stocks of a large area due to high variability seen in our data. The k-nearest neighbor model performed better than random forest models to map species dominance in these forests. Mean AGC was 167 ± 11 MgC ha -1 , which is greater than the global average of mangroves (115 ± 7 MgC ha -1 ) but within their global range (37–255 MgC ha -1 ) Kauffman et al. (2020). In 2018, Pohnpei mangroves contained over 1.07 million MgC in AGC pools. By assigning the mean AGC stock per species per area to the map, carbon stock distributions were visualized spatially, allowing future conservation efforts to be directed to carbon dense stands.

Pohnpei Island↗

USGS2015

Silvio O. Conte National Fish and Wildlife Refuge: Draft comprehensive conservation plan and environmental impact statement

The Connecticut River is treasured by all for its majesty and significance in supporting life along its winding 410-mile passage through urban and rural communities in New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. Working with our partners, we are inspired to protect and enhance the natural and cultural richness throughout the watershed, especially on lands and waters entrusted to our agency as the Silvio O. Conte National Fish and Wildlife Refuge. Together with our partners, we design, support, and implement strategic conservation actions across the watershed, and communicate conservation needs and successes through extensive outreach and education programs. On refuge lands, we offer visitor programs and activities that promote an appreciation of the Connecticut River watershed as an intact, interconnected, and healthy ecosystem. Visitors respond to this greater awareness by becoming active stewards of the watershed’s natural and cultural resources. Our actions exemplify the Service’s vital role in conserving the Connecticut River watershed and the refuge’s important contribution to the mission of the National Wildlife Refuge System.

Vermont↗

USGS2023

Evaluating the institutional and ecological effects of invasive species prevention policy: A case study from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Wildlife and natural resource institutions play key roles in invasive species monitoring and management. Paradoxically, the extensive fieldwork undertaken by these institutions and their partners may result in the inadvertent movement and spread of invasive species within and between sensitive ecosystems. In this work, we consider the potential effects of internal guidelines and policies designed to prevent the spread of invasive species by the field activities of management institutions and their partners. Such policies could be high-leverage tools for invasive species prevention, however, as large, complex organizations seek to implement policies to limit the spread of invasive species, it may be challenging to accommodate the wide diversity of potential invasion pathways and mitigation efforts facilitated via the programs, activities, and ecosystems they manage. Prevention policies may also be met with resistance due to the costs of implementation unless concrete benefits can be demonstrated. Assessing and communicating the effects of prevention policies could motivate improved implementation and adherence by institutional units and partners and could help inform adaptive policy changes. However, assessing the effectiveness of invasive species prevention presents a unique set of challenges, including incomplete data on invasive species distribution and pathways, that make it difficult to measure the effects of prevention efforts. In this work, we present a conceptual framework for evaluating institutional policies for invasive species prevention. We describe a flexible, multifaceted approach that considers policy implementation and adherence as well as ecological outcomes. We discuss potential application of this framework using a policy recently implemented by the Pacific Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to prevent the introduction and spread of invasive species by service personnel and partners during field activities as a case study.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

USGS2013

Wildfire and invasive species in the west: challenges that hinder current and future management and protection of the sagebrush-steppe ecosystem: a Gap Report

The Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA) to satisfy the 45-day report requirement identified in Cooperative Agreement (F13AC00353) between WAFWA and the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) submit this “Gap Report”. This report summarizes the policy, fiscal and science challenges that land managers encounter related to the control and reduction of the invasive plant/fire complex, especially as it relates to the threaten or endangered species listing status of the Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). While this Gap Report identifies 22 technical, policy, planning and funding gaps, it should be considered a “work in-progress”. To address this effort a Wildfire/Invasive Initiative Work Group (WG) was formed. The WG consist of nationally recognized experts in fire ecology, Sage-grouse ecology and management, range management and plant ecology. The WG developed this Gap Report and will be developing the final report for this Cooperative Agreement. Thus, as the WG evaluates the wildfire/invasive issue and makes recommendation to address scientific and management shortcomings, additional gaps will be identified and included in the final report. Within this report, the WG has suggested the top 5 gaps. However, the actual priority of what should be addressed first will depend on the significance and sequence of the limiting factor, available funding, current work, roles and responsibilities of the specific agencies, etc. The WG will continue to meet on a regular basis to further develop and expand this list of gaps. Additionally, the WG will offer specific options to address the identified gaps. However, the WG recommends that the FWS, possibly through the State/Federal (Western Governors Association) Sage Grouse Task Force or the National Sage-grouse Executive Oversight Committee, establish a Subcommittee to specifically review this Gap Report and develop a multi-agency approach on how to address each gap. The WG will continue to endeavor to establish a priority list and identify the “low hanging fruit” that can be addressed in the short-term to affect the listing decision. Additionally, the WG will propose a longer-term strategy. However, to successfully establish such a strategy it will take buy-in and commitment at the highest levels in federal and state governments. In an effort to provide managers an opportunity to address the most important issues this coming fiscal year, we offer the following top 5 gaps. Beyond these top 5, the WG has identified 17 additional gaps that should be evaluated by both federal and state agencies as a means to help better manage the wildfire/invasive threat in the west.

Report↗

USGS2023

Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout recovery in Yellowstone Lake: Complex interactions among invasive species suppression, disease, and climate change

In Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming, the largest inland population of nonhybridized Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri , hereafter Cutthroat Trout, declined throughout the 2000s because of predation from invasive Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush , drought, and whirling disease Myxobolus cerebralis . To maintain ecosystem function and conserve Cutthroat Trout, a Lake Trout gill netting suppression program was established in 1995, decreasing Lake Trout abundance and biomass. Yet, the response of Cutthroat Trout to varying Lake Trout suppression levels, collectively with the influence of disease and climate, is unknown. We developed an ecosystem model (calibrated to historical data) to forecast (2020–2050) whether Cutthroat Trout would achieve recovery benchmarks given disease, varying suppression effort, and climate change. Lake Trout suppression influenced Cutthroat Trout recovery; current suppression effort levels resulted in Cutthroat Trout recovering from historical lows in the early 2000s. However, Cutthroat Trout did not achieve conservation benchmarks when incorporating the influence of disease and climate. Therefore, the National Park Service intends to incorporate age-specific abundance, spawner biomass, or both in conservation benchmarks to provide better indication of how management actions and environmental conditions influence Cutthroat Trout. Our results illustrate how complex interactions within an ecosystem must be simultaneously considered to establish and achieve realistic benchmarks for species of conservation concern.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Projected impact of sea-level rise and urbanization on mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) habitat along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas through 2100

Coastal wetlands along the Gulf of Mexico support a wide diversity of wildlife, are important nurseries for sport and commercial fisheries, provide erosion and flood control, and serve many other ecological functions and services. These marshes have been declining in area and degrading at alarming rates since the 1930s. Effective conservation planning is vital to protect these ecosystems, but decision makers often lack knowledge of expected future conditions to strategically target conservation actions. To address this issue, we focus on a species of conservation concern, the mottled duck (<i>Anas fulvigula</i>), that resides year-round in the coastal marshes of the Gulf of Mexico. We used location data collected from radiomarked hen mottled ducks from 2006 to 2011 to create an ensemble model of habitat selection for 2010. We then projected future habitat states using models of sea-level rise and human development. By combining future predictions with our ensemble model, we predict future habitat for mottled ducks through 2100, in 20-year time steps beginning with 2020. Sea-level rise models predicted reductions in coastal marsh habitats and our ensemble model predict corresponding declines in overall habitat quantity and quality for mottled ducks, with the largest rate of habitat loss predicted within the Chenier Plain of Louisiana, USA at 71%. In some areas, particularly the Texas Mid-Coast, USA, future urbanization and human development is expected to reduce the ability of wetland habitat to migrate inland with rising sea-levels. Our results also highlight areas of coastal marsh particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise; and conversely, identify areas most likely to persist into the future that could be targeted for habitat conservation to help mottled ducks persist on the landscape.

Louisiana, Texas↗

USGS2006

Atmospheric deposition of current-use and historic-use pesticides in snow at National Parks in the Western United States

The United States (U.S.) National Park Service has initiated research on the atmospheric deposition and fate of semi-volatile organic compounds in its alpine, sub-Arctic, and Arctic ecosystems in the Western U.S. Results for the analysis of pesticides in seasonal snowpack samples collected in spring 2003 from seven national parks are presented herein. From a target analyte list of 47 pesticides and degradation products, the most frequently detected current-use pesticides were dacthal, chlorpyrifos, endosulfan, and ??- hexachlorocyclohexane, whereas the most frequently detected historic-use pesticides were dieldrin, ??-hexachlorocyclohexane, chlordane, and hexachlorobenzene. Correlation analysis with latitude, temperature, elevation, particulate matter, and two indicators of regional pesticide use reveal that regional current and historic agricultural practices are largely responsible for the distribution of pesticides in the national parks in this study. Pesticide deposition in the Alaskan parks is attributed to long-range transport because there are no significant regional pesticide sources. The percentage of total pesticide concentration due to regional transport (%RT) was calculated for the other parks. %RT was highest at parks with higher regional cropland intensity and for pesticides with lower vapor pressures and shorter half-lives in air. ?? 2006 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2016

Proceedings of the 12th Biennial Conference of research on the Colorado Plateau

Introduction The Colorado Plateau is a physiographic region that encompasses 330,000 square kilometers in parts of four states in the southwestern United States (Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona). Known for its high deserts, the Colorado Plateau also includes isolated mountains, high plateaus, and rugged canyons. Not only is the region topographically diverse, but geologically, biologically, and culturally diverse as well. The landscape is managed by Federal entities including the Bureau of Land Management, the National Park Service, and the U.S. Forest Service; Tribal nations including the Navajo Nation, Kaibab Paiute, Mountain Ute, Southern Ute, Hopi, Zuni, Hualapai, Havasupai, and White Mountain Apache Tribes; State land and wildlife management agencies; and privately owned holdings, creating complex interactions and management challenges. Population growth, increased tourism to Federal and State lands, and energy development have increased water demands and altered land-use patterns, and these changes have emerged as management challenges facing the people working and living in the region. Climate change, particularly the ongoing drought, has exacerbated the effects of population growth, land-use change, and other stressors such as invasive species. As managers seek solutions to the challenges facing the region’s natural and cultural resources, the Biennial Conference of Science and Management of the Colorado Plateau has become an important venue for exchanging information about emerging management concerns and recent scientific research. Each biennial conference has sought to promote discussion, information sharing, and productive communication among the managers, scientists, students, administrators, tribal representatives, and others who attend the conference with the goal of enhancing the use of the best available science to manage the region’s incomparable natural and cultural resources. The publication and dissemination of a conference proceedings series expands the reach of the conference beyond those people in attendance and creates a record on the research presented. The idea of producing a conference proceedings, and its subsequent publication, first occurred in 1993 following the first biennial conference in 1991. A published volume of contributed papers has followed each subsequent biennial conference, including this volume. The venue for publishing proceedings has changed over the years and has included the National Park Service, the Government Printing Office, the U.S. Geological Survey, and University of Arizona Press. Recently, van Riper and others (2015) published a compilation of the abstracts from the 11 previous conference proceedings. Collectively, the proceedings highlight approximately 25 years of natural- and cultural-resources research, promoting the integration of research with resource management across the Colorado Plateau. This volume is freely downloadable by the public, thereby further expanding the influence of this conference beyond the Colorado Plateau. The 12th Biennial Conference held in Flagstaff, Arizona, from September 16 to 19, 2013, covered a range of topics in the physical, biological, and socio-cultural sciences. The conference was organized and hosted by Northern Arizona University’s ( NAU) Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, the Colorado Plateau Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, and the U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center. Financial and in-kind support was provided by a wide range of organizations including the U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Grand Canyon Trust, Colorado Plateau Research Station, and various NAU entities. NAU sponsors include the Landscape Conservation Initiative, School of Forestry, School of Earth Science and Environmental Sustainability, Office of the Provost, and Office of the Vice President of Research. Contributors to these proceedings include researchers and managers from Federal, State, and Tribal governments, universities, private entities, and non-profit organizations. In this regard, this conference has wide-ranging support and participation among private and public entities involved in the science and management of natural resources on the Colorado Plateau.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2015

Monitoring population status of sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska: options and considerations

After many decades of absence from southeast Alaska, sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) are recolonizing parts of their former range, including Glacier Bay, Alaska. Sea otters are well known for structuring nearshore ecosystems and causing community-level changes such as increases in kelp abundance and changes in the size and number of other consumers. Monitoring population status of sea otters in Glacier Bay will help park researchers and managers understand and interpret sea otter-induced ecosystem changes relative to other sources of variation, including potential human-induced impacts such as ocean acidification, vessel disturbance, and oil spills. This report was prepared for the National Park Service (NPS), Southeast Alaska Inventory and Monitoring Network following a request for evaluation of options for monitoring sea otter population status in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. To meet this request, we provide a detailed consideration of the primary method of assessment of abundance and distribution, aerial surveys, including analyses of power to detect interannual trends and designs to reduce variation around annual abundance estimates. We also describe two alternate techniques for evaluating sea otter population status—(1) quantifying sea otter diets and energy intake rates, and (2) detecting change in ages at death. In addition, we provide a brief section on directed research to identify studies that would further our understanding of sea otter population dynamics and effects on the Glacier Bay ecosystem, and provide context for interpreting results of monitoring activities.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

Science-Based Strategies for Sustaining Coral Ecosystems

Coral ecosystems and their natural capital are at risk. Greenhouse gas emissions, overfishing, and harmful land-use practices are damaging our coral reefs. Overwhelming scientific evidence indicates that the threats are serious, and if they are left unchecked, the ecological and social consequences will be significant and widespread. Although the primary stressors to coral ecosystems are known, science-based strategies are needed to more accurately explain natural processes and forecast human-induced change. Collaborations among managers and scientists and enhanced mapping, monitoring, research, and modeling can lead to effective mitigation plans. U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their partners assess coral ecosystem history, ecology, vulnerability, and resiliency and provide study results to decisionmakers who may devise policies to sustain coral resources and the essential goods and services they provide.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2023

Species management research program [postcard]

Executive Summary Our nation’s fish and wildlife species face increasingly complex threats and challenges. Ensuring a healthy future for these species benefits all Americans, contributing to the abundance of our food supply, the well-being of diverse cultures and communities, and the future of biodiverse ecosystems. The U.S. Geological Survey Species Management Research Program (SMRP) plays a critical role in achieving that future by delivering targeted research and foundational scientific services needed to conserve fish and wildlife in a changing world.

General Information Product↗

USGS2014

Users' guide to system dynamics model describing Coho salmon survival in Olema Creek, Point Reyes National Seashore, Marin County, California

The system dynamics model described in this report is the result of a collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and National Park Service (NPS) San Francisco Bay Area Network (SFAN) staff, whose goal was to develop a methodology to integrate inventory and monitoring data to better understand ecosystem dynamics and trends using salmon in Olema Creek, Marin County, California, as an example case. The SFAN began monitoring multiple life stages of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in Olema Creek during 2003 (Carlisle and others, 2013), building on previous monitoring of spawning fish and redds. They initiated water-quality and habitat monitoring, and had access to flow and weather data from other sources. This system dynamics model of the freshwater portion of the coho salmon life cycle in Olema Creek integrated 8 years of existing monitoring data, literature values, and expert opinion to investigate potential factors limiting survival and production, identify data gaps, and improve monitoring and restoration prescriptions. A system dynamics model is particularly effective when (1) data are insufficient in time series length and/or measured parameters for a statistical or mechanistic model, and (2) the model must be easily accessible by users who are not modelers. These characteristics helped us meet the following overarching goals for this model: Summarize and synthesize NPS monitoring data with data and information from other sources to describe factors and processes affecting freshwater survival of coho salmon in Olema Creek. Provide a model that can be easily manipulated to experiment with alternative values of model parameters and novel scenarios of environmental drivers. Although the model describes the ecological dynamics of Olema Creek, these dynamics are structurally similar to numerous other coastal streams along the California coast that also contain anadromous fish populations. The model developed for Olema can be used, at least as a starting point, for other watersheds. This report describes each of the model elements with sufficient detail to guide the primary target audience, the NPS resource specialist, to run the model, interpret the results, change the input data to explore hypotheses, and ultimately modify and improve the model. Running the model and interpreting the results does not require modeling expertise on the part of the user. Additional companion publications will highlight other aspects of the model, such as its development, the rationale behind the methodological approach, scenario testing, and discussions of its use. System dynamics models consist of three basic elements: stocks , flows , and converters . Stocks are measurable quantities that can change over time, such as animal populations. Flows are any processes or conditions that change the quantity in a stock over time (Ford, 1999), are expressed in the model as a rate of change, and are diagrammed as arrows to or from stocks. Converters are processes or conditions that change the rate of flows. A converter is connected to a flow with an arrow indicating that it alters the rate of change. Anything that influences the rate of change (such as different environmental conditions, other external factors, or feedbacks from other stocks or flows) is modeled as a converter. For example, the number of fish in a population is appropriately modeled as a stock. Mortality is modeled as a flow because it is a rate of change over time used to determine the number of fish in the population. The density-dependent effect on mortality is modeled as a converter because it influences the rate of morality. Together, the flow and converter change the number, or stock, of juvenile coho. The instructions embedded in the stocks, flows, converters, and the sequence in which they are linked are processed by the simulation software with each completed sequence composing a model run. At each modeled time step within the model run, the stock counts will go up, down, or stay the same based on the modeled flows and the influence of converters on those flows. The model includes a user-friendly interface to change model parameters, which allows park staff and others to conduct sensitivity analyses, incorporate future knowledge, and implement scenarios for various future conditions. The model structure incorporates place holders for relationships that we hypothesize are significant but data are currently lacking. Future climate scenarios project stream temperatures higher than any that have ever been recorded at Olema Creek. Exploring climate change impacts on coho survival is a high priority for park staff, therefore the model provides the user with the option to experiment with hypothesized effects and to incorporate effects based on future observations.

California↗