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Geological framework data from Long Island Sound, 1981-1990: A digital data release

Introduction Since 1980 the Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey and Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection have conducted a joint program of cooperative geologic research in Long Island Sound and its vicinity. As part of this program, a highly successful regional-scale study of the geologic framework was completed. Reconnaissance high-resolution seismic reflection data were collected and used to establish the basic stratigraphy within the Sound and to map the major geologic units; field verification of the geologic interpretations of the seismic profiles was primarily accomplished with vibratory cores. These interpretations were in turn used to produce basin-wide syntheses of the late Quaternary depositional history. Unfortunately, the original seismic records and core logs were generated only in analog form. These unique paper documents, which are still under demand for industrial applications and academic research, are fragile and have become ragged from frequent use. The purpose of this report is to preserve these data by converting the seismic profiles, core descriptions, and ancillary reports into digital form, and to organize these files into a product that can be more readily accessed and disseminated. Not all of the existing high-resolution seismic-reflection surveys, collected in Long Island Sound through cooperatives with the U.S. Geological Survey and the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, have been incorporated into this report. These surveys, whose records are still in need of preprocessing and annotation, generally cover smaller areas along the Connecticut coast and were originally intended to provide additional detail to the larger, more regional data sets presented herein. The digital release of the omitted data sets is planned as part of a future product.

Connecticut, New York↗

Advancing mangrove macroecology

Mangrove forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services to society, yet they are among the most anthropogenically impacted coastal ecosystems in the world. In this chapter, we discuss and provide examples for how macroecology can advance our understanding of mangrove ecosystems. Macroecology is broadly defined as a discipline that uses statistical analyses to investigate large-scale, universal patterns in the distribution, abundance, diversity, and organization of species and ecosystems, including the scaling of ecological processes and structural and functional relationships. Macroecological methods can be used to advance our understanding of how non-linear responses in natural systems can be triggered by human impacts at local, regional, and global scales. Although macroecology has the potential to gain knowledge on universal patterns and processes that govern mangrove ecosystems, the application of macroecological methods to mangroves has historically been limited by constraints in data quality and availability. Here we provide examples that include evaluations of the variation in mangrove forest ecosystem structure and function in relation to macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) and climate change. Additional examples include work focused upon the continental distribution of aboveground net primary productivity and carbon storage, which are rapidly advancing research areas. These examples demonstrate the value of a macroecological perspective for the understanding of global- and regional-scale effects of both changing environmental conditions and management actions on ecosystem structure, function, and the supply of goods and services. We also present current trends in mangrove modeling approaches and their potential utility to test hypotheses about mangrove structural and functional properties. Given the gap in relevant experimental work at the regional scale, we also discuss the potential use of mangrove restoration and rehabilitation projects as macroecological studies that advance the critical selection and conservation of ecosystem services when managing mangrove resources. Future work to further incorporate macroecology into mangrove research will require a concerted effort by research groups and institutions to launch research initiatives and synthesize data collected across broad biogeographic regions.

Book chapter↗

The geology, botany and chemistry of selected peat-forming environments from temperate and tropical latitudes

Peat has been studied in several geologic settings: (1) glaciated terrain in cold temperate Maine and Minnesota, U.S.A.; (2) an island in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Maine, where sea level is rising; (3) the warm temperate U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, where sea level has changed often; and (4) the tropical coast of Sarawak, Malaysia, and the tropical delta of the Batang Hari River, Sumatra, Indonesia. Most of these deposits are domed (ombrotrophic or partly ombrotrophic) bogs in which peat accumulation continued above the surface of the surrounding soil. However, the bogs of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains are comparatively not as domed, and many have almost level surfaces. In some bogs, aquatic or semi-aquatic plant materials accumulated, replaced water in the depressions, and formed a surface on which marsh or swamp vegetation could subsequently live, die, and accumulate. In others, the plant materials accumulated initially on level silt or sand surfaces supporting marshes or swamps. As the peat dome formed, plants growing on it changed from luxuriant ones near the base of the dome, where nutrients were brought into the bog by surface and ground water, to stunted ones at the top of the dome, where the raised bogs are fed by nutrient-poor precipitation. The physical and chemical changes that take place in the sequence of environments from the pond stage of deposit development, through the grassy marsh stage, through the forested swamp stage, and finally through the heath dome stage can be measured in terms of acidity and ash, volatile matter, carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, sulfur and oxygen contents, as well as in the kind and distribution of trace elements. The organic and inorganic contents of the deposits relate to geomorphology, and geomorphology relates to their settings. As models of coal formation, some domed peat deposits may help in solving problems of distribution and character of ancient coal beds. But clearly not all peat deposits are precursors of coal. Most Holocene peat deposits are subject to destruction by erosion, fire and decomposition through microbial and chemical oxidation before burial. The best environments for coal precursors have biomass accumulation, a continuously rising water table within the mass, and minimum influx of clay and silt until preservation by burial. The most suitable settings for future economic coal deposits are domed bogs that accumulate thick, widespread peat having low ash and low sulfur contents. The ombrotrophic peat deposits of tropical Sarawak and Sumatra are thick and extensive, contain low-ash and low-sulfur peat, and have high heating values. They are considered to be the best tropical coal analogs because of their extent and chances of preservation; the base of the peat is below adjacent river levels, and chemical and structural conditions are favorable for accumulation.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Extreme precipitation and flooding contribute to sudden vegetation dieback in a coastal salt marsh

Climate extremes are becoming more frequent with global climate change and have the potential to cause major ecological regime shifts. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, a coastal wetland in Texas suffered sudden vegetation dieback following an extreme precipitation and flooding event associated with Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Historical salt marsh dieback events have been linked to climate extremes, such as extreme drought. However, to our knowledge, this is the first example of extreme precipitation and flooding leading to mass mortality of the salt marsh foundation species, Spartina alterniflora . Here, we investigated the relationships between baseline climate conditions, extreme climate conditions, and large-scale plant mortality to provide an indicator of ecosystem vulnerability to extreme precipitation events. We identified plant zonal boundaries along an elevation gradient with plant species tolerant of hypersaline conditions, including succulents and graminoids, at higher elevations, and flood-tolerant species, including S. alterniflora , at lower elevations. We quantified a flooding threshold for wetland collapse under baseline conditions characterized by incremental increases in flooding (i.e., sea level rise). We proposed that the sudden widespread dieback of S. alterniflora following Hurricane Harvey was the result of extreme precipitation and flooding that exceeded this threshold for S. alterniflora survival. Indeed, S. alterniflora dieback occurred at elevations above the wetland collapse threshold, illustrating a heightened vulnerability to flooding that could not be predicted from baseline climate conditions. Moreover, the spatial pattern of vegetation dieback indicated that underlying stressors may have also increased susceptibility to dieback in some S. alterniflora marshes.Collectively, our results highlight a new mechanism of sudden vegetation dieback in S. alterniflora marshes that is triggered by extreme precipitation and flooding. Furthermore, this work emphasizes the importance of considering interactions between multiple abiotic and biotic stressors that can lead to shifts in tolerance thresholds and incorporating climate extremes into climate vulnerability assessments to accurately characterize future climate threats.

Texas↗

The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: Lessons and conclusions

One of the greatest earthquakes of all time struck south-central Alaska on March 27, 1964. Strong motion lasted longer than for most recorded earthquakes, and more land surface was dislocated, vertically and horizontally, than by any known previous temblor. Never before were so many effects on earth processes and on the works of man available for study by scientists and engineers over so great an area. The seismic vibrations, which directly or indirectly caused most of the damage, were but surface manifestations of a great geologic event-the dislocation of a huge segment of the crust along a deeply buried fault whose nature and even exact location are still subjects for speculation. Not only was the land surface tilted by the great tectonic event beneath it, with resultant seismic sea waves that traversed the entire Pacific, but an enormous mass of land and sea floor moved several tens of feet horizontally toward the Gulf of Alaska. Downslope mass movements of rock, earth, and snow were initiated. Subaqueous slides along lake shores and seacoasts, near-horizontal movements of mobilized soil (“landspreading”), and giant translatory slides in sensitive clay did the most damage and provided the most new knowledge as to the origin, mechanics, and possible means of control or avoidance of such movements. The slopes of most of the deltas that slid in 1964, and that produced destructive local waves, are still as steep or steeper than they were before the earthquake and hence would be unstable or metastable in the event of another great earthquake. Rockslide avalanches provided new evidence that such masses may travel on cushions of compressed air, but a widely held theory that glaciers surge after an earthquake has not been substantiated. Innumerable ground fissures, many of them marked by copious emissions of water, caused much damage in towns and along transportation routes. Vibration also consolidated loose granular materials. In some coastal areas, local subsidence was superimposed on regional tectonic subsidence to heighten the flooding damage. Ground and surface waters were measurably affected by the earthquake, not only in Alaska but throughout the world. Expectably, local geologic conditions largely controlled the extent of structural damage, whether caused directly by seismic vibrations or by secondary effects such as those just described. Intensity was greatest in areas underlain by thick saturated unconsolidated deposits, least on indurated bedrock or permanently frozen ground, and intermediate on coarse well-drained gravel, on morainal deposits, or on moderately indurated sedimentary rocks. Local and even regional geology also controlled the distribution and extent of the earthquake's effects on hydrologic systems. In the conterminous United States, for example, seiches in wells and bodies of surface water were controlled by geologic structures of regional dimension. Devastating as the earthquake was, it had many long-term beneficial effects. Many of these were socioeconomic or engineering in nature; others were of scientific value. Much new and corroborative basic geologic and hydrologic information was accumulated in the course of the earthquake studies, and many new or improved investigative techniques were developed. Chief among these, perhaps, were the recognition that lakes can be used as giant tiltmeters, the refinement of methods for measuring land-level changes by observing displacements of barnacles and other sessile organisms, and the relating of hydrology to seismology by worldwide study of hydroseisms in surface-water bodies and in wells. The geologic and hydrologic lessons learned from studies of the Alaska earthquake also lead directly to better definition of the research needed to further our understanding of earthquakes and of how to avoid or lessen the effects of future ones. Research is needed on the origins and mechanisms of earthquakes, on crustal structure, and on the generation of tsunamis and local waves. Better earthquake-hazard maps, based on improved knowledge of regional geology, fault behavior, and earthquake mechanisms, are needed for the entire country. Their preparation will require the close collaboration of engineers, seismologists, and geologists. Geologic maps of all inhabited places in earthquake-prone parts of the country are also needed by city planners and others, because the direct relationship between local geology and potential earthquake damage is now well understood. Improved and enlarged nets of earthquake-sensing instruments, sited in relation to known geology, are needed, as are many more geodetic and hydrographic measurements. Every large earthquake, wherever located, should be regarded as a full-scale laboratory experiment whose study can give scientific and engineering information unobtainable from any other source. Plans must be made before the event to insure staffing, funding, and coordination of effort for the scientific and engineering study of future earthquakes. Advice of earth scientists and engineers should be used in the decision-making processes involved in reconstruction after any future disastrous earthquake, as was done after the Alaska earthquake. The volume closes with a selected bibliography and a comprehensive index to the entire series of U.S. Geological Survey Professional Papers 541-546. This is the last in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 546, in 1 part, describes Lessons and Conclusions.

Alaska↗

Drainage network structure and hydrologic behavior of three lake-rich watersheds on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

Watersheds draining the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska are dominated by permafrost and snowmelt runoff that create abundant surface storage in the form of lakes, wetlands, and beaded streams. These surface water elements compose complex drainage networks that affect aquatic ecosystem connectivity and hydrologic behavior. The 4676 km 2 Fish Creek drainage basin is composed of three watersheds that represent a gradient of the ACP landscape with varying extents of eolian, lacustrine, and fluvial landforms. In each watershed, we analyzed 2.5-m-resolution aerial photography, a 5-m digital elevation model, and river gauging and climate records to better understand ACP watershed structure and processes. We show that connected lakes accounted for 19 to 26% of drainage density among watersheds and most all channels initiate from lake basins in the form of beaded streams. Of the > 2500 lakes in these watersheds, 33% have perennial streamflow connectivity, and these represent 66% of total lake area extent. Deeper lakes with over-wintering habitat were more abundant in the watershed with eolian sand deposits, while the watershed with marine silt deposits contained a greater extent of beaded streams and shallow thermokarst lakes that provide essential summer feeding habitat. Comparison of flow regimes among watersheds showed that higher lake extent and lower drained lake-basin extent corresponded with lower snowmelt and higher baseflow runoff. Variation in baseflow runoff among watersheds was most pronounced during drought conditions in 2007 with corresponding reduction in snowmelt peak flows the following year. Comparison with other Arctic watersheds indicates that lake area extent corresponds to slower recession of both snowmelt and baseflow runoff. These analyses help refine our understanding of how Arctic watersheds are structured and function hydrologically, emphasizing the important role of lake basins and suggesting how future lake change may impact hydrologic processes.

Alaska↗

Algal toxins in Alaskan seabirds: Evaluating the role of saxitoxin and domoic acid in a large-scale die-off of Common Murres

Elevated seawater temperatures are linked to the development of harmful algal blooms (HABs), which pose a growing threat to marine birds and other wildlife. During late 2015 and early 2016, a massive die-off of Common Murres (Uria algae; hereafter, murres) was observed in the Gulf of Alaska coincident with a strong marine heat wave. Previous studies have documented illness and death among seabirds resulting from exposure to the HAB neurotoxins saxitoxin (STX) and domoic acid (DA). Given the unusual mortality event, corresponding warm water anomalies, and recent detection of STX and DA throughout coastal Alaskan waters, HABs were identified as a possible factor of concern. To evaluate whether algal toxins may have contributed to murre deaths, we tested for STX and DA in a suite of tissues obtained from beach-cast murre carcasses associated with the die-off as well as from apparently healthy murres and Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla; hereafter, kittiwakes) in the preceding and following summers. We also tested forage fish and marine invertebrates collected in the Gulf of Alaska in 2015–2017 to evaluate potential sources of HAB toxin exposure for seabirds. Saxitoxin was present in multiple tissue types of both die-off (36.4%) and healthy (41.7%) murres and healthy kittiwakes (54.2%). Among birds, we detected the highest concentrations of STX in liver tissues (range 1.4 –10.8 µg 100 g-1) of die-off murres. Saxitoxin was relatively common in forage fish (20.3%) and marine invertebrates (53.8%). No established toxicity limits currently exist for seabirds, but concentrations of STX in birds and forage fish in our study were lower than values reported from most other bird die-offs in which STX intoxication was causally linked. We detected low concentrations of DA in a single bird sample and in 33.3% of marine invertebrates and 4.0% of forage fish samples. Although these results do not support the hypothesis that acute exposure to STX or DA was a primary factor in the 2015–2016 die-off event, additional information about the sensitivity of murres to these toxins is needed before we can discount their potential role in the die-off. The widespread occurrence of STX in seabirds, forage fish, and marine invertebrates in the Gulf of Alaska indicates that algal toxins should be considered in future assessments of seabird health, especially given the potential for greater occurrence of HABs in the future.

Alaska↗

River ice controls permafrost bank erosion across an Arctic delta

Bank erosion in Arctic rivers helps shape channel geometry, mobilizes carbon from permafrost and influences sediment delivery to the Arctic Ocean. On Alaska's Arctic coastal plain, rivers begin flowing during snowmelt in late spring while extensive river ice persists in channels, such that hydraulics are altered and water is kept cool. The effects of river ice on permafrost bank erosion are poorly understood, primarily due to a dearth of field observations and a lack of river ice in existing models. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a numerical model to simulate the melt of substrate interstitial ice and bank collapse along individual permafrost river banks. We parameterize the model with field observations from riverbanks in three different channels on the Canning River delta, which are disparately impacted by river ice during snowmelt. We explore the bank erosion produced without river ice in the model and with modern river ice model scenarios that we drive with different stages and water temperature boundary conditions. We also compare predicted erosion rates to observations from satellite imagery to validate this approach. In the model, banks are idealized as vertical profiles that rise 1–2 m above the river bed and are comprised of silt- to sand-sized sediment with dense roots in the active layer. Underneath, we generalize bank ice content underneath the active layer to represent ice-rich permafrost on the river corridor boundaries. The model predicts that these ice-rich river banks can erode by 2–6 m/yr. Scenarios without ice underpredict erosion in the distributary channels. Scenarios with varying river ice for different deltaic channels produce erosion rates similar to observations. Our results suggest that the prolonged melt of thick river ice in a delta nonlinearly impacts permafrost bank erosion by blocking river discharge to certain branches, heightening stage across the distributary network and locally limiting river water warming. Given expected changes in air temperature and hydrology, future estimates of Arctic river bank erosion could be improved by considering river ice.

Alaska↗

Southern California Bight 2003 Regional Monitoring Program: V. water quality

More than $30 million is expended annually on environmental monitoring in the Southern California Bight (SCB), yet only 5% of the Bight is monitored on an ongoing basis. Therefore, environmental managers in the SCB decided to expand their monitoring program and, starting in 1994, decided to conduct periodic regional assessments of ecosystem condition and assess the overall health of the SCB. Sixty-five different organizations collaborated in 2003 to create the third SCB Regional Monitoring Program (Bight '03). Bight '03 was designed to be integrated regional monitoring program that encompasses regulatory, academic, and non-governmental agencies. Bight '03 had three components: Coastal Ecology, Shoreline Microbiology, and Water Quality. This report addresses the purpose, approach, findings, and recommendations from the Water Quality component, which focused on contamination-laden stormwater runoff, in particularly its variability in time and space as well as its short-term ecological impacts. Specifically, the Bight '03 Water Quality component had three primary goals, the first of which was to described the temporal evolution of stormwater plumes produced by the major southern California rivers. Specifically, the study was intended to determine how far offshore the plumes extended, how rapidly they advected, how long before the plumes dispersed and how these properties differed among storms and river systems. The second goal was to describe how the physical properties (e.g., turbidity, temperature, salinity) of the plume related to biogeochemical and ecological properties that are of more direct concern to the water quality management community. Accomplished primarily through ship-based sampling of water quality parameters, this second goal was to describe how far offshore, and for how ;long after the storm, elevated bacterial concentrations, toxicity, and nutrients could be detected. Similar to the fist goal, the study also addressed how these answers differed among storms and river systems. The final goal was to determine whether relationships between environmental indicators derived from coincident satellite remote sensing and in situ data sets are sufficiently robust for remote sensing to become a routine water quality monitoring programs. Remote sensing data potentially provide coastal managers with synoptic near-real time regional information about prevailing ocean conditions and hazards that would complement existing field-based sampling protocols, but only if there is a thorough understanding of how to interpret and utilize the proxy measures, such as ocean color. The understanding of these priorities through Bight '03 sampling is intended to provide the basis for developing more efficient, widespread and coast-effective coastal ocean monitoring techniques. Water quality data were collected across eight major river systems within four geographic regions of southern California. Field measurements included the primary contaminants of interest, i.e., bacterial concentrations, water toxicity, and nutrients, as well as related parameters such as temperatures, salinity, total suspended solids, transmissivity, chlorophyll, and colored dissolved organic material (CDOM) concentrations. For each of the four major regions, i.e., Santa Clara/Ventura Rivers, Ballona Creek/Santa Monica Bay, San Pedro Shelf, and the San Diego, Tijuana Rivers, two stormwater events were sampled for up to three days by ship resulting in 574 water column CTD+ profiles and 705 discrete water samples during 36 ship-days. These data were analyzed in combination with MODIS ocean color satellite remote sensing, buoy meteorological observations, drifters, and HF radar current measurements to evaluate the dispersal patterns, dynamics, and impacts of the freshwater runoff plumes. Based on these data and resulting analyses, the principal conclusions were as follow: - Stormwater runoff turbidity plumes were found to be spatially extensive, covering up to 2500 km 2 within the Southern California Bight nearshore zone, and persisting over the entire duration of the post-storm sampling period (at least 3 days). - The spatial and temporal extent of the portion of the plume with contaminants was far less than that of the turbidity plume, typically representing <10% of its area (30-70% off Tijuana); however, with contaminant impacts generally greatly reduced or absent by the third or fourth day of sampling - Pseudo-nitzschia , a harmful algae that produces domoic acid, was found to be more abundant than previously reported. - Accurately describing stormwater runoff plumes requires a combination of in situ and remote sensing assessment tools, with satellite data providing valuable synoptic information. From these conclusions, the following recommendations are provided: - Future studies designed to describe stormwater plumes should include a combination of ship - and remote sensing-based methods. - CDOM is a good proxy of the freshwater runoff plume and should be added as a standard measurement parameter on water quality instrument packages. - Investigations are needed that assess on a local basis the spatial extent of ecological effects of stormwater plumes early in the storm, ideally accompanied by airborne imagery to provide improved temporal & spatial resolution, to fill in knowledge gaps. The next Bight regional monitoring program should focus on quantifying nutrient loadings and dynamics in association with stormwater runoff and other sources, and characterize their attendant ecosystem impacts such as phytoplankton blooms.

California↗

Growth and mortality of invasive Flathead Catfish in the tidal James River, Virginia

Invasive species are a major threat to biodiversity of native fishes in North America. In Atlantic coastal rivers of the United States, large catfishes introduced from the Gulf of Mexico drainages have become established and contributed to native species declines. Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris were introduced to the Chesapeake Bay drainage in the 1960s and 1970s in the James and Potomac river systems in the eastern United States. Diet studies have found James River Flathead Catfish function as apex predators and are known to consume at-risk Alosa spp. To limit further range expansion and impacts to native species, resource management agencies need information on population characteristics to support population assessments and management plan development. Thus, we examined temporal trends in growth rates and estimated total instantaneous mortality for tidal James River Flathead Catfish collected by Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries from 1997 to 2015. Parameters of the von Bertalanffy growth model with length-at-age observations pooled across sampling years were estimated as L ∞ = 1,059 mm, k = 0.231/y, and t 0 = 0.55 y. Flathead Catfish growth differed among sampling years, especially for the years 2007 and 2014, which had the largest sample sizes. However, there were no obvious temporal trends in growth trajectories. James River Flathead Catfish tend to grow much faster than most populations used in development of the relative growth index, but the species is known to grow faster in its nonnative range. Consequently, scientists and managers should use caution when applying growth indices if native and nonnative populations are not expressly considered in development of the index. We estimated total instantaneous mortality as Z = 0.50 and mean natural mortality from six estimators as M = 0.30. A lack of older individuals in the population means that mortality rates may be overestimated as a result of gear selectivity or ongoing maturation of the population. These data provide information to support future work examining the species in the James River and development of population models to evaluate management strategies and management plans.

Virginia↗

Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested that a long-term solution will require a significant reassessment of objectives to better reflect the comprehensive values of refuges to society. We discuss some future considerations to integrate these two problems into a single framework by developing novel optimization approaches for dynamic problems that account for uncertainty in future conditions.

Ecology and Society↗

Role of recovering river herring population on smallmouth bass diet and growth

Fish assemblages in Atlantic coastal rivers have undergone extensive ecological change in the last two and a half centuries due to human influence, including extirpation of many migratory fish species, such as river herring (Alosa spp.) and introduction of nonnative piscivores, notably Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu. Recently, dam removals and fish passage improvements in the Penobscot River, Maine, have allowed river herring to return to reaches of the river that have been inaccessible since the late 19th century. Alosine populations have increased and this trend is anticipated to continue. This may increase forage in the system which could potentially increase growth for Smallmouth Bass, the dominant piscivore. We examined the diet and growth of Smallmouth Bass collected from areas of the Penobscot River watershed with and without access to river herring as prey. We collected 765 Smallmouth Bass throughout 2015, examined the stomach contents of 573 individuals, and found notable differences in diet among three river reaches with common seasonal trends. Juvenile river herring composed an average of 19% (SE = ±6%) of stomach contents by mass from Smallmouth Bass collected in the freshwater tidal area but were rarely observed in the diets upstream. We used estimates from von Bertalanffy growth models to examine differences in growth among reaches and found that asymptotic length was the longest (425 mm TL) in the Tidal reach where access to river herring was unrestricted. We then used these data to predict changes to growth associated with increased access to juvenile river herring prey with bioenergetics models. Results indicated that substituting juvenile river herring for less energy-dense prey (e.g.,invertebrates) may lead to increases in seasonal growth throughout the watershed as river herring populations continue to rebound in response to dam removal. Our results provide insight into the diet and growth of Smallmouth Bass in a large New England river, and provide a foundation for future work investigating unfolding changes to these characteristics following recent dam removals.

Maine↗

Gauging state-level and user group views of oyster reef restoration activities in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Successful oyster reef restoration, like many conservation challenges, requires not only biological understanding of the resource, but also stakeholder cooperation and political support. To measure perceptions of oyster reef restoration activities and priorities for future restoration along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, a survey of 1500 individuals representing 4 user groups (oyster harvesters, shrimpers, environmental organization members, professionals), across 5 states (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida) was conducted in 2011. All respondents highly supported reef restoration efforts, but there was a dichotomy in preferred restoration goals with commercial fishermen more likely to support oyster reef restoration for stock enhancement, while professionals and environmental organization members were more likely to support oyster reef restoration to enhance ecosystem services. All user groups identified enforcement, funding, and appropriate site selection as basic requirements for successful reef restoration. For management of restored oyster reefs, oyster harvesters and shrimpers were less likely to support options that restricted the use of reefs, including gear restrictions and permanent closures, but did support rotating annual reef closures, while other stakeholders were willing to consider all options, including annual reef closures and sanctuary reefs. Overall, there were clear differences in management and communication preferences across user groups, but few differences across states. Understanding these key differences in stakeholder support for, and willingness to accept specific management actions is critical in moving management and restoration forward while minimizing conflict.

Ocean and Coastal Management↗

The influence of sea level rise on the regional interdependence of coastal infrastructure

Sea level rise (SLR) is placing both immediate and long‐term pressures on coastal communities to take protective actions. Projects in the United States, and in many locations throughout the world, generally involve local jurisdictions raising the elevation of shoreline protection elements, with limited or no analysis of the feedback between shoreline management decisions and the impacts to water levels regionally. Our study examines the impact of local shoreline development on regional flood risk and considers SLR scenarios up to 1.5 m using a large‐scale numerical model, as an example, for San Francisco Bay. Here we show that measures to prevent flooding along an embayment shoreline in one location or subregion may increase inundation elsewhere in the system. The network of interactions occurs not only within subbasins of the Bay but also across the greater geographic extent from one end of the Bay to the other, and local jurisdiction may have either reciprocal relationships with or asymmetric impacts on one other. Importantly, the nature of the interaction network is seen to evolve with SLR: interactions are purely subregional at current sea level but with higher sea level (e.g., 1 m of SLR), not only do the subregional interdependencies strengthen but also regional interdependences emerge.

California↗

Accuracy of EAARL lidar ground elevations using a bare-earth algorithm in marsh and beach grasses on the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana

The NASA Experimental Advanced Airborne Lidar (EAARL) is an airborne lidar (light detection and ranging) instrument designed to map coastal topography and bathymetry. The EAARL system has the capability to capture each laser-pulse return over a large signal range and can digitize the full waveform of the backscattered energy. Because of this ability to capture the full waveform, the EAARL system can map features such as coral reefs, beaches, coastal vegetation, and trees, where extreme variations in the laser backscatter are caused by different physical and optical characteristics. Post-processing of the EAARL data is accomplished using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS) (Nayegandhi and others, 2009). In ALPS, the waveform of the lidar is analyzed and split into first and last returns. The 'first returns' are indicative of vegetation-canopy height, or bare ground in the absence of vegetation, whereas 'last returns' typically represent 'bare-earth' elevations under vegetation. To test the accuracy of the first-return and bare-earth EAARL data, topographic and vegetation height surveys were conducted in the Chandeleur Islands, concurrent with an EAARL lidar survey and an aerial oblique-photographic survey from September 20 to 27, 2006. The Chandeleur Islands are a north-south-oriented chain of low-lying islands located approximately 100 kilometers east of the city of New Orleans, Louisiana. The islands are narrow north-south strips of land with marsh on the landward (west sides) and sandy beaches on their gulfward (east sides). Prior to Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall at Buras, Louisiana, as a Category 3 storm on August 29, 2005, prominent, 3- to 4-meter-high sand dunes were present in the northern Chandeleurs. The storm removed them, leaving post-storm island elevations of generally less than 2 meters above 0.0 NAVD88. This report is part of a study of the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Chandeleur Islands using pre-storm and post-storm lidar surveys to detect morphological changes. The islands lost over 80 percent of their land area during Hurricane Katrina, and in the first 2 years following Katrina, many of the islands experienced continued shoreline retreat (Sallenger and others, 2007). In addition to land-area losses, the loss of dunes made the islands increasingly vulnerable to future storm impacts. The U.S. Geological Survey, along with partners in the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, continues to monitor changes in shoreline position, land area, and elevation in the Chandeleur Islands.

Open-File Report↗

Simulated effects of alternative withdrawal strategies on groundwater flow in the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand in the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basins, New Jersey

Groundwater is essential for water supply and plays a critical role in maintaining the environmental health of freshwater and estuarine ecosystems in the Atlantic Coastal basins of New Jersey. The unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and the confined Atlantic City 800-foot sand are major sources of groundwater in the area, and each faces different water-supply concerns. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), conducted a study to simulate the effects of withdrawals in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Rio Grande water-bearing zone and to evaluate potential scenarios. The study area encompasses Atlantic County and parts of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Ocean, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties. The major hydrogeologic units affecting water supply in the study area are the surficial Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, a thick diatomaceous clay confining unit in the upper part of Kirkwood Formation; the Rio Grande water-bearing zone; and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand of the Kirkwood Formation. Hydrogeologic data from 18 aquifer tests and specific capacity data from 230 wells were analyzed to provide horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the aquifers. Groundwater withdrawals are greatest from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, and 65 percent of the water is used for public supply. Groundwater withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand are about half those from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system. Ninety-five percent of the withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand is used for public supply. Data from six streamgaging stations and 51 low-flow partial record sites were used to estimate base flow in the area. Base flow ranges from 60 to 92 percent of streamflow. A groundwater flow model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand was developed and calibrated using water-level data from 148 wells and base-flow data from 22 gaging or low-flow partial record stations. The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system within the Great Egg Harbor River and the Mullica River Basins was simulated on a monthly basis from 1998 through 2006. An existing regional model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain was revised to provide boundary conditions for the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basin model (referred to as the Great Egg-Mullica model). In the Great Egg-Mullica model, monthly groundwater recharge rates used in the model ranged from 10-15 inches per year in 2001 to 20-25 inches per year in 2005. The mean-absolute error for 10 of the 14 long-term hydrographs used in model calibration was less than 5 ft. Groundwater flow budgets for the Great Egg-Mullica model calibration periods, May 2005 and September 2006, and for the entire model calibration period 1998 to 2006, showed that nearly 70 percent of the water entering the Atlantic City 800-foot sand came from the horizontal connection with the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in updip areas. The groundwater flow model was used to simulate scenarios under three possible conditions: average 1998 to 2006 withdrawals (Average scenario), full-allocation withdrawals (Full Allocation scenario), and projected 2050-demand withdrawals (2050 Demand scenario). Withdrawals in the Full Allocation scenario are nearly twice the withdrawals from the Average scenario, primarily because of the potential for large agricultural withdrawals if all allocations are used. Withdrawals for the 2050 Demand scenario are about 50 percent greater than those for the Average scenario, primarily due to expected increases in withdrawals for public supply. Monthly base-flow depletion criteria were determined using the Low-Flow Margin method, currently under consideration by NJDEP, to estimate available water on an annual basis at the Hydrologic Unit Code 11 (HUC11) level and to determine whether a water-supply deficit exists. Simulations of various groundwater-withdrawal scenarios were made using the calibrated model, and results were compared with baseline conditions (no withdrawals) to determine where and when base-flow deficits may be occurring and may be expected to occur in the future. Scenarios were simulated to assess base-flow depletion that could occur from different groundwater-withdrawal situations. In the Average scenario, deficits occurred in 7 of the 14 subbasins. In the Full Allocation scenario, deficits occurred in 11 of the subbasins. In the 2050 Demand scenario, deficits occurred in 9 of the 14 subbasins. The largest deficits occurred in the Absecon Creek subbasin because the base-flow depletion criteria for this subbasin is small due to the surface-water diversions that are already occurring there and because existing groundwater withdrawals in the subbasin have resulted in base-flow depletion under current (1998-2006) conditions. Three adjusted scenarios, variations of the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios, were simulated; for the adjusted scenarios, the withdrawals were modified in stages with the intent to successively eliminate or minimize the base-flow deficits. Modifications included shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, implementing seasonal conjunctive use of shallow and deep aquifers, and specifying reductions in withdrawals within a HUC11 subbasin in deficit. The adjusted scenarios are intended to show the relative effectiveness of each of the three approaches in reducing the deficits. Most of the deficits under the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios were eliminated by reductions in withdrawals or allocations. Shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system or seasonal conjunctive use did not eliminate deficits for any subbasin. Reductions in withdrawals accounted for more than 95 percent of the total reduction of deficits in all but one subbasin.

New Jersey↗

Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO 2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO 2 , precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO 2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO 2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ∼ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO 2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha −1 in nitrate yield relative to the watershed with a lower percent of croplands as a result of increased export of nitrate derived from fertilizer. The watershed dominated by poorly drained soils showed increased nitrate removal due do enhanced denitrification compared to the watershed dominated by well-drained soils. Our findings suggest that increased implementation of conservation practices would be necessary for this region to mitigate increased nitrate loads associated with predicted changes in future climate.

Greensboro Watershed, Tuckahoe Creek Watershed↗

Crustal structure of the coastal and marine San Francisco Bay region, California

As of the time of this writing, the San Francisco Bay region is home to about 6.8 million people, ranking fifth among population centers in the United States. Most of these people live on the coastal lands along San Francisco Bay, the Sacramento River delta, and the Pacific coast. The region straddles the tectonic boundary between the Pacific and North American Plates and is crossed by several strands of the San Andreas Fault system. These faults, which are stressed by about 4 cm of relative plate motion each year, pose an obvious seismic hazard. We have many ways to study earthquake faults. Where faults break the land surface, we may learn valuable information needed for hazard assessment, such as cumulative offset, slip rate, and earthquake history. However, many of the major faults in the region are partly submerged beneath San Francisco and Monterey Bays. Although this situation poses problems in gathering observational data for hazard assessment, bay-region waterways provide an opportunity to study faultzone structure by using marine subsurface-imaging techniques, which are easier and cheaper than equivalent studies on land. In 1993, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) launched a 5-year project aimed at unearthing the basic science of the submerged San Andreas strike-slip fault system in the San Francisco Bay region with its many interacting strands. Primary project goals were structural, such as to discover how the San Andreas and Hayward Faults are connected or related at depth, to learn how the complex of faults in the San Andreas stepover zone on the Golden Gate platform functions, and to locate previously unknown faults. This volume thus contains mostly structural information about the San Francisco Bay region, much of it gathered through exploratory geophysical experiments. The volume is organized “top down,” from studies in the shallowest crust to the base of the crust. The first three chapters are linked through their use of novel geophysical techniques to study earthquake effects, coseismic slip, and shallow stratigraphy. Kayen and others examine crustal structure at very high resolution and demonstrate the use of ground-penetrating-radar tomography to measure the liquefaction potential of coastal sedimentary deposits. McGann and others use microfossils from drill cores along the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge to determine a more detailed late Pleistocene stratigraphy of San Francisco Bay than was previously available. Geist and Zoback use the historical record of a small local tsunami generated by the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake to model the rupture process of that earthquake. The last four chapters are dedicated to studies of fault related structure of the seismogenic crust in and around the San Andreas Fault system in the San Francisco Bay region. Jachens and others compile an aeromagnetic anomaly map from new high-resolution flights across the bay region. Some of these anomalies mark the positions of offshore faults, and others are offset by faults, providing constraints on cumulative slip. Hart and others concisely summarize the marine seismic data recorded in and around San Francisco Bay, map the coverage, and provide archival information for those interested in acquiring data. The last two chapters present the results of the seismic data that have been analyzed. Bruns and others present their analysis of high-quality intermediate-resolution (~5-km penetration) seismic-reflection data gathered over the complex San Andreas-San Gregorio Fault junction. This junction, which is thought to be where the 1906 San Francisco earthquake originated (see Geist and Zoback, this volume), contains an apparent extensional right stepover in the San Andreas Fault. Finally, Parsons and others review and summarize the results of deep-crustal seismic-reflection experiments and local-earthquake tomographic studies, including previously unpublished data, and provide additional support and discussion for already-published studies. In summary, these studies were carried out in an environment where background information on faults in the San Francisco Bay region was sought. Much of the structural information presented here comes from experiments of a style unlikely to be conducted by the USGS in the near future. Together, the chapters in this volume provide a structural framework for a major part of a complex strike-slip fault system.

California↗