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At least 1,081 records · Page 60Linked to original sources

USGS2026

Dynamic coupling between faulting, rifting and magmatism during 2021-2025 unrest on Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland

Interactions among faulting, earthquakes, and eruptions are fundamental to plate tectonics and hazard forecasting yet rarely observed along mid-ocean ridges. On Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, seismotectonic–volcanic unrest resumed after nearly 800-year hiatus, providing an opportunity to observe these interactions during 2021–2025 activity. By integrating high-resolution seismicity, focal mechanisms, satellite geodesy, surface deformation, and eruption data, we document ∼4 m of total extension accommodated through 14 rifting episodes. The largest, in 2023, involved graben reactivation and diking, with seismic swarms and earthquake faulting that matched the surface ruptures, where strike-slip faulting preceded normal-faulting earthquakes and extension. The accrued extension was released by extension fractures triggered by magma accumulation. Long-term observations show no correlation between erupted magma volume, seismicity, and crustal extension. This highlights dynamic relation between rifting, faulting, and magmatism in transtensional settings and their implications for hazard assessment.

Reykjanes Peninsula↗

USGS2024

A great tsunami earthquake component of the 1957 Aleutian Islands earthquake

The great 1957 Aleutian Islands earthquake ruptured ∼1200 km of the plate boundary along the Aleutian subduction zone and produced a destructive tsunami across Hawaiʻi. Early seismic and tsunami analyses indicated that large megathrust fault slip was concentrated in the western Aleutian Islands, but tsunami waves generated by slip in the west cannot explain the large observed runup in Hawaiʻi far to the southeast. Recently mapped 1957 geologic deposits on eastern Aleutian Islands suggest occurrence of very large nearby slip. Jointly modeling tsunami runup along the eastern Aleutian and Hawaiian Islands together with tide gauge recordings across the Pacific resolves 12-26 m shallow slip along 600 km of the eastern Aleutian Islands in addition to modest, deeper western slip inferred from seismic records. The eastern near-trench slip results in an M W 8.3-8.6 tsunami earthquake component of the M W 8.6-8.8 rupture, comparable in size to the adjacent 1946 Aleutian tsunami earthquake to the east. The reexamination of the 1957 rupture confirms the tsunami hazards posed by the eastern Aleutian subduction zone to Hawaiʻi and lays the groundwork for investigation of large prehistoric earthquakes through modeling tsunami runup inferred from stratigraphic observations to constrain their rupture processes.

Alaska↗

USGS2008

Potential effects of a scenario earthquake on the economy of southern California: Intraregional commuter, worker, and earnings flow analysis

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region (Jones and others, 2008). This report uses selected datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau and the State of California's Employment Development Department to develop preliminary estimates of the number and spatial distribution of commuters who cross the San Andreas Fault and to characterize these commuters by the industries in which they work and their total earnings. The analysis concerns the relative exposure of the region's economy to the effects of the earthquake as described by the location, volume, and earnings of those commuters who work in each of the region's economic sectors. It is anticipated that damage to transportation corridors traversing the fault would lead to at least short-term disruptions in the ability of commuters to travel between their places of residence and work.

California↗

USGS1977

Microearthquake--array studies of the seismicity in Southeast Missouri

In 1811-12, a series of disastrous earthquakes struck the southeast Missouri region (see "The Mississippi Valley earthquakes of 1811 and 1812" by Otto W. Nuttli in the Earthquake Information Bulletin, March-April 1974). Earthquake activity continues in the area at present, showing that the seismic hazard is still there. We know little about the relationship between seismicity and the tectonic character of this region. The hypocenters of earthquakes are scattered. The near-surface features themselves are obscured by the several hundred feet alluvium and other quaternary sediments of the Mississippi embayment. No active faults have been mapped in the area. Supported by the U.S Geological Survey, my colleagues Mark Kramer, Gerard Fischer, Stephen Schaefer, Sean Morrissey, and I have recently established a microearthquake network in the New Madrid seismic zone. The network has been in operation for only 21 months, yet we have already been able to show, from the hypocenters located so far, that earthquakes in this region occur along linear zones, which we believe corespond to seismically active faults.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

USGS2015

Updating the USGS seismic hazard maps for Alaska

The U.S. Geological Survey makes probabilistic seismic hazard maps and engineering design maps for building codes, emergency planning, risk management, and many other applications. The methodology considers all known earthquake sources with their associated magnitude and rate distributions. Specific faults can be modeled if slip-rate or recurrence information is available. Otherwise, areal sources are developed from earthquake catalogs or GPS data. Sources are combined with ground-motion estimates to compute the hazard. The current maps for Alaska were developed in 2007, and included modeled sources for the Alaska-Aleutian megathrust, a few crustal faults, and areal seismicity sources. The megathrust was modeled as a segmented dipping plane with segmentation largely derived from the slip patches of past earthquakes. Some megathrust deformation is aseismic, so recurrence was estimated from seismic history rather than plate rates. Crustal faults included the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte system, the Denali–Totschunda system, the Castle Mountain fault, two faults on Kodiak Island, and the Transition fault, with recurrence estimated from geologic data. Areal seismicity sources were developed for Benioff-zone earthquakes and for crustal earthquakes not associated with modeled faults. We review the current state of knowledge in Alaska from a seismic-hazard perspective, in anticipation of future updates of the maps. Updated source models will consider revised seismicity catalogs, new information on crustal faults, new GPS data, and new thinking on megathrust recurrence, segmentation, and geometry. Revised ground-motion models will provide up-to-date shaking estimates for crustal earthquakes and subduction earthquakes in Alaska.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS1999

Abrupt along-strike change in tectonic style: San Andreas fault zone, San Francisco Peninsula

Seismicity and high-resolution aeromagnetic data are used to define an abrupt change from compressional to extensional tectonism within a 10- to 15-km-wide zone along the San Andreas fault on the San Francisco Peninsula and offshore from the Golden Gate. This 100-km-long section of the San Andreas fault includes the hypocenter of the M w = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake as well as the highest level of persistent microseismicity along that ∼470-km-long rupture. We define two distinct zones of deformation along this stretch of the fault using well-constrained relocations of all post-1969 earthquakes based a joint one-dimensional velocity/hypocenter inversion and a redetermination of focal mechanisms. The southern zone is characterized by thrust- and reverse-faulting focal mechanisms with NE trending P axes that indicate “fault-normal” compression in 7- to 10-km-wide zones of deformation on both sides of the San Andreas fault. A 1- to 2-km-wide vertical zone beneath the surface trace of the San Andreas is characterized by its almost complete lack of seismicity. The compressional deformation is consistent with the young, high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains/Coast Ranges as the San Andreas fault makes a broad restraining left bend (∼10°) through the southernmost peninsula. A zone of seismic quiescence ∼15 km long separates this compressional zone to the south from a zone of combined normal-faulting and strike-slip-faulting focal mechanisms (including a M L = 5.3 earthquake in 1957) on the northernmost peninsula and offshore on the Golden Gate platform. Both linear pseudogravity gradients, calculated from the aeromagnetic data, and seismic reflection data indicate that the San Andreas fault makes an abrupt ∼3-km right step less than 5 km offshore in this northern zone. A similar right-stepping (dilatational) geometry is also observed for the subparallel San Gregorio fault offshore. Persistent seismicity and extensional tectonism occur within the San Andreas right stepover region and at least 15 km along-strike both to the SE and NW. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake may have nucleated within the San Andreas right stepover, which may help explain the bilateral nature of rupture of this event. Our analysis suggests two seismic hazards for the San Francisco Peninsula in addition to the hazard associated with a M = 7 to 8 strike-slip earthquake along the San Andreas fault: the potential for a M ≈ 6 normal-faulting earthquake just 5–8 km west of San Francisco and a M = 6+ thrust faulting event in the southern peninsula.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1982

SEISRISK II; a computer program for seismic hazard estimation

The computer program SEISRISK II calculates probabilistic ground motion values for use in seismic hazard mapping. SEISRISK II employs a model that allows earthquakes to occur as points within source zones and as finite-length ruptures along faults. It assumes that earthquake occurrences have a Poisson distribution, that occurrence rates remain constant during the time period considered, that ground motion resulting from an earthquake is a known function of magnitude and distance, that seismically homogeneous source zones are defined, that fault locations are known, that fault rupture lengths depend on magnitude, and that earthquake rates as a function of magnitude are specified for each source. SEISRISK II calculates for each site on a grid of sites the level of ground motion that has a specified probability of being exceeded during a given time period. The program was designed to process a large (essentially unlimited) number of sites and sources efficiently and has been used to produce regional and national maps of seismic hazard.}t is a substantial revision of an earlier program SEISRISK I, which has never been documented. SEISRISK II runs considerably [aster and gives more accurate results than the earlier program and in addition includes rupture length and acceleration variability which were not contained in the original version. We describe the model and how it is implemented in the computer program and provide a flowchart and listing of the code.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

An updated stress map of the continental U.S. reveals heterogeneous intraplate stress

Knowledge of the state of stress in the Earth’s crust is key to understanding the forces and processes responsible for earthquakes. Historically, low rates of natural seismicity in the central and eastern United States have complicated efforts to understand intraplate stress, but recent improvements in seismic networks and the spread of human-induced seismicity have greatly improved data coverage. Here we compile a nationwide stress map based on formal inversions of focal mechanisms that challenges the idea that deformation in continental interiors is driven primarily by broad, uniform stress fields derived from distant plate boundaries. Despite plate-boundary compression, extension dominates roughly half of the continent, and second-order forces related to lithospheric structure appear to control extension directions. We also show that the states of stress in several active eastern United States seismic zones differ significantly from surrounding areas and that these anomalies cannot be explained by transient processes, suggesting that earthquakes are focused by persistent, locally-derived sources of stress. Such spatially variable intraplate stress appears to justify the current, spatially variable estimates of seismic hazard. Future work to quantify sources of stress, stressing-rate magnitudes, and their relationship with strain and earthquake rates could allow prospective mapping of intraplate hazard.

Continental United States↗

USGS2010

Quantifying potential tsunami hazard in the Puysegur subduction zone, south of New Zealand

Studies of subduction zone seismogenesis and tsunami potential, particularly of large subduction zones, have recently seen a resurgence after the great 2004 earthquake and tsunami offshore of Sumatra, yet these global studies have generally neglected the tsunami potential of small subduction zones such as the Puysegur subduction zone, south of New Zealand. Here, we study one such relatively small subduction zone by analysing the historical seismicity over the entire plate boundary region south of New Zealand, using these data to determine the seismic moment deficit of the subduction zone over the past ~100 yr. Our calculations indicate unreleased moment equivalent to a magnitude Mw 8.3 earthquake, suggesting this subduction zone has the potential to host a great, tsunamigenic event. We model this tsunami hazard and find that a tsunami caused by a great earthquake on the Puysegur subduction zone would pose threats to the coasts of southern and western South Island, New Zealand, Tasmania and southeastern Australia, nearly 2000 km distant. No claim to original US government works Geophysical Journal International ?? 2010 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2000

The enigma of the Arthur's Pass, New Zealand, earthquake: 1. Reconciling a variety of data for an unusual earthquake sequence

The 1994 Arthur's Pass earthquake ( M W 6.7) is the largest in a recent sequence of earthquakes in the central South Island, New Zealand. No surface rupture was observed, the aftershock distribution was complex, and routine methods of obtaining the faulting orientation of this earthquake proved contradictory. We use a range of data and techniques to obtain our preferred solution, which has a centroid depth of 5 km, M 0 =1.3 × 10 19 N m, and a strike, dip, and rake of 221°, 47°, 112°, respectively. Discrepancies between this solution and the Harvard centroid moment tensor, together with the Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and unusual aftershock distribution, suggest that the rupture may not have occurred on a planar fault. A second, strike slip, subevent on a more northerly striking plane is suggested by these data but neither the body wave modeling nor regional broadband recordings show any complexity or late subevents. We relocate the aftershocks using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional velocity inversions. The depth range of the aftershocks (1–10 km) agrees well with the preferred mainshock centroid depth. The aftershocks near the hypocenter suggest a structure dipping toward the NW, which we interpret to be the mainshock fault plane. This structure and the Harper fault, ∼15 km to the south, appear to have acted as boundaries to the extensive aftershock zone trending NNW-SSE. Most of the M L ≥ 5 aftershocks, including the two largest ( M L 6.1 and M L 5.7), clustered near the Harper fault and have strike slip mechanisms consistent with motion on this fault and its conjugates. Forward modeling of the GPS data suggests that a reverse slip mainshock, combined with strike slip aftershock faulting in the south, is able to match the observed displacements. The occurrence of this earthquake sequence implies that the level of seismic hazard in the central South Island is greater than previous estimates.

Arthur's Pass↗

USGS2004

Land-level changes from a late Holocene earthquake in the northern Puget lowland, Washington

An earthquake, probably generated on the southern Whidbey Island fault zone, caused 1-2 m of ground-surface uplift on central Whidbey Island ???2800-3200 yr ago. The cause of the uplift is a fold that grew coseismically above a blind fault that was the earthquake source. Both the fault and the fold at the fault's tip are imaged on multichannel seismic refection profiles in Puget Sound immediately east of the central Whidbey Island site. Uplift is documented through contrasting histories of relative sea level at two coastal marshes on either side of the fault. Late Holocene shallow-crustal earthquakes of Mw = 6.5-7 pose substantial seismic hazard to the northern Puget Lowland. ?? 2004 Geological Society of America.

Geology↗

USGS2002

Identifying a large landslide with small displacements in a zone of coseismic tectonic deformation; the Villa Del Monte landslide triggered by the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake

The Villa Del Monte landslide was one of 20 large and complex landslides triggered by the 1989 Loma Prieta , California , earthquake in a zone of pervasive coseismic ground cracking near the fault rupture. The landslide was approximately 980 m long, 870 m wide, and encompassed an area of approximately 68 ha. Drilling data suggested that movement may have extended to depths as great as 85 m below the ground surface. Even though the landslide moved <1 m, it caused substantial damage to numerous dwellings and other structures, primarily as a result of differential displacements and internal Assuring. Surface cracks, scarps, and compression features delineating the Villa Del Monte landslide were discontinuous, probably because coseismic displacements were small ; such discontinuous features were also characteristic of the other large , coseismic landslides in the area, which also moved only short distances during the earthquake . Because features marking landslide boundaries were discontinuous and because other types of coseismic ground cracks were widespread in the area, identification of the landslides required detailed mapping and analysis. Recognition that landslides such as that at Villa Del Monte may occur near earthquake-generating fault ruptures should aid in future hazard evaluations of areas along active faults.

Reviews in Engineering Geology↗

USGS2024

Slip rate for the Rose Canyon fault through San Diego, California, based on analysis of GPS data: Evidence for a potential Rose Canyon–San Miguel-Vallecitos fault connection?

The Rose Canyon fault is the southern extension of the larger Newport–Inglewood–Rose Canyon fault system, which represents a major structural boundary in the Inner Continental Borderland (ICB) offshore of southern California. Ten to fifteen percent of total plate boundary motion in southern California is thought to be accommodated by the faults of the ICB, but the exact distribution of slip is uncertain. With an onshore segment, the Rose Canyon fault offers an opportunity to measure the slip rate using traditional geodetic methods. In this study, we use Global Positioning System (GPS) surface velocities from a combined campaign and continuous GPS network to constrain elastic models of the Rose Canyon fault. We then compare the observed surface velocities with proposed conceptual models of regional fault connections that facilitate the transfer of slip into the Rose Canyon fault to assess how well the observations are explained by the models. The results of elastic half‐space models suggest that the Rose Canyon fault may be slipping toward the higher end of geologic estimates, with the preferred model indicating a slip rate of 2.4 ± 0.5 mm/yr. Although limited in terms of near‐fault benchmarks, we find an improved model fit using an asymmetrical elastic half‐space model and a higher slip rate, suggesting a potential rheological contrast across the Rose Canyon fault, similar to observations from the northern Newport–Inglewood fault segments. Observed GPS surface velocities, background seismicity, and gravity anomalies south of San Diego Bay point toward a more easterly trace for the Rose Canyon fault, suggesting a possible connection with the San Miguel–Vallecitos fault system. Such a connection could increase the potential rupture lengths of future earthquakes and have important consequences for regional seismic hazards.

California↗

USGS2021

Which earthquake accounts matter?

Earthquake observations contributed by human observers provide an invaluable source of information to investigate both historical and modern earthquakes. Commonly, the observers whose eyewitness accounts are available to scientists are a self‐selected minority of those who experience a given earthquake. As such these may not be representative of the overall population that experienced shaking from the event. Eyewitness accounts can contribute to modern science only if they are recorded in the first place and archived in an accessible repository. In this study, we explore the extent to which geopolitics and socioeconomic disparities can limit the number of earthquake observers whose observations can contribute to science. We first revisit a late nineteenth‐century earthquake in the central United States in 1882 that provides an illustrative example of an event that has been poorly characterized due to a reliance on English‐language archival materials. For modern earthquakes, we analyze data collected for recent earthquakes in California and India via the online “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system. In California, online data‐collection systems appear to be effective in gathering eyewitness accounts from a broad range of socioeconomic groups. In India, however, responses to the DYFI system reveal a strong bias toward responses from urban areas as opposed to rural settlements, as well a bias with literacy rate. The dissimilarity of our results from modern earthquakes in the United States and India provides a caution that, in some parts of the world, contributed felt reports can still potentially provide an unrepresentative view of earthquake effects, especially if online data collection systems are not designed to be broadly accessible. This limitation can in turn potentially shape our understanding of an earthquake’s impact and the characterization of seismic hazard.

Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2025

No evidence for an active margin-spanning megasplay fault at the Cascadia Subduction Zone

It has been previously proposed that a megasplay fault within the Cascadia accretionary wedge, spanning from offshore Vancouver Island to Oregon, has the potential to slip during a future Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. This hypothetical fault has major implications for tsunami size and arrival times and is included in disaster-planning scenarios currently in use in the region. This hypothesis is evaluated in this study using CASIE21 deep-penetrating and U.S. Geological Survey high-resolution seismic reflection profiles. We map changes in wedge structural style and seismic character to identify the inner-outer wedge transition zone where a megasplay fault has been previously hypothesized to exist and evaluate evidence for active faulting within this zone. Our results indicate that there is not an active, through-going megasplay fault in Cascadia, but instead, the structure and activity of faulting at the inner-outer wedge transition zone is highly variable and segmented along strike, consistent with the segmentation of other physical and mechanical properties in Cascadia. Wedge sedimentation, plate dip, and subducting topography are proposed to play a major role in controlling megasplay fault development and evolution. Incorporating updated megasplay fault location, geometry, and activity into modeling of Cascadia earthquakes and tsunamis could help better constrain associated hazards.

British Columbia, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2015

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Point Reyes, California

This publication about the Offshore of Point Reyes map area includes ten map sheets that contain explanatory text, in addition to this descriptive pamphlet and a data catalog of geographic information system (GIS) files. Sheets 1, 2, and 3 combine data from four different sonar surveys to generate comprehensive high-resolution bathymetry and acoustic-backscatter coverage of the map area. These data reveal a range of physiographic features (highlighted in the perspective views on sheet 4) such as the flat, sediment-covered seafloor in Drakes Bay, as well as abundant “scour depressions” on the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf (see sheet 9) and local, tectonically controlled bedrock uplifts. To validate geological and biological interpretations of the sonar data shown in sheets 1, 2, and 3, the U.S. Geological Survey towed a camera sled over specific offshore locations, collecting both video and photographic imagery; these “ground-truth” surveying data are summarized on sheet 6. Sheet 5 is a “seafloor character” map, which classifies the seafloor on the basis of depth, slope, rugosity (ruggedness), and backscatter intensity and which is further informed by the ground-truth-survey imagery. Sheet 7 is a map of “potential habitats,” which are delineated on the basis of substrate type, geomorphology, seafloor process, or other attributes that may provide a habitat for a specific species or assemblage of organisms. Sheet 8 compiles representative seismic-reflection profiles from the map area, providing information on the subsurface stratigraphy and structure of the map area. Sheet 9 shows the distribution and thickness of young sediment (deposited over the last about 21,000 years, during the most recent sea-level rise) in both the map area and the larger Salt Point to Drakes Bay region, interpreted on the basis of the seismic-reflection data, and it identifies the Offshore of Point Reyes map area as lying within the Bodega Head–Tomales Point shelf, Point Reyes bar, and Bolinas shelf domains. Sheet 10 is a geologic map that merges onshore geologic mapping (compiled from existing maps by the California Geological Survey) and new offshore geologic mapping that is based on integration of high-resolution bathymetry and backscatter imagery (sheets 1, 2, 3), seafloor-sediment and rock samples (Reid and others, 2006), digital camera and video imagery (sheet 6), and high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles (sheet 8), as well as aerial-photographic interpretation of nearshore areas. The information provided by the map sheets, pamphlet, and data catalog have a broad range of applications. High-resolution bathymetry, acoustic backscatter, ground-truth-surveying imagery, and habitat mapping all contribute to habitat characterization and ecosystem-based management by providing essential data for delineation of marine protected areas and ecosystem restoration. Many of the maps provide high-resolution baselines that will be critical for monitoring environmental change associated with climate change, coastal development, or other forcings. High-resolution bathymetry is a critical component for modeling coastal flooding caused by storms and tsunamis, as well as inundation associated with longer term sea-level rise. Seismic-reflection and bathymetric data help characterize earthquake and tsunami sources, critical for natural-hazard assessments of coastal zones. Information on sediment distribution and thickness is essential to the understanding of local and regional sediment transport, as well as the development of regional sediment-management plans. In addition, siting of any new offshore infrastructure (for example, pipelines, cables, or renewable-energy facilities) will depend on high-resolution mapping. Finally, this mapping will both stimulate and enable new scientific research and also raise public awareness of, and education about, coastal environments and issues.

California↗

USGS2021

Geometry of the décollement below eastern Bangladesh and implications for seismic hazard

Eastern Bangladesh sits on the seismically active Chittagong-Myanmar fold and thrust belt (CMFB), a north-trending accretionary wedge on the eastern side of the India-Eurasia collision. Earthquakes on the basal décollement and associated thrusts within the CMFB present a hazard to this densely populated region. In this study, we interpret 28 seismic reflection profiles from both published and unpublished sources to constrain the depth of the basal décollement. To convert profiles from the time domain to the depth domain, we integrate sonic log and seismic stacking velocity data to generate time-velocity relationships for different parts of the CMFB. Our analysis reveals that the décollement is ∼9 km deep in northeast and southeast Bangladesh, but shallows to ∼5 km in east-central Bangladesh. The décollement has an area of 7.25 × 10 4 km 2 (∼150 × 450 km), making it capable of an Mw 8.5 earthquake. However, the warped geometry of this fault might act as a rupture barrier were a large earthquake to occur on the décollement. Our combined velocity and fault model lay the groundwork for future studies to address seismic segmentation, ground shaking, and rupture modeling in the CMFB. Finally, we use our compiled data set to analyze the evolution of fold kinematics in the CMFB. We observe that folding style and failure mode varies, from mainly ductile deformation in the foreland to mainly brittle in the hinterland. The dual-failure modes within the CMFB support the hypothesis that a region with ductile deformation may still be capable of seismic behavior.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗

USGS2007

Persistent earthquake clusters and gaps from slip on irregular faults

Earthquake-producing fault systems like the San Andreas fault in California show self-similar structural variation 1 ; earthquakes cluster in space, leaving aseismic gaps between clusters. Whether gaps represent overdue earthquakes or signify diminished risk is a question with which seismic-hazard forecasters wrestle 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . Here I use spectral analysis of the spatial distribution of seismicity along the San Andreas fault (for earthquakes that are at least 2 in magnitude), which reveals that it obeys a power-law relationship, indicative of self-similarity in clusters across a range of spatial scales. To determine whether the observed clustering of earthquakes is the result of a heterogeneous stress distribution, I use a finite-element method to simulate the motion of two rigid blocks past each other along a model fault surface that shows three-dimensional complexity on the basis of mapped traces of the San Andreas fault. The results indicate that long-term slip on the model fault generates a temporally stable, spatially variable distribution of stress that shows the same power-law relationship as the earthquake distribution. At the highest rates of San Andreas fault slip (40 mm yr −1 ), stress patterns produced are stable over a minimum of 25,000 years before the model fault system evolves into a new configuration. These results suggest that although gaps are not immune to rupture propagation they are less likely to be nucleation sites for earthquakes.

California↗