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At least 1,081 records · Page 60Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Comparative assessment of laboratory-derived thermal maxima of Gila trout (oncorhynchus Gilae) with current stream temperatures

Gila trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae ) represent an iconic species of the American Southwest. The salmonid has survived extensive logging, livestock grazing, and mining, and is currently threatened by climate change, wildfire, and extended drought. Long-term conservation and recovery of the species and its unique lineages rely on stocking and translocation into historically inhabited streams. Thus, the fish's thermal tolerance is essential in determining suitable habitat and potential vulnerability to a warming climate. We compared a laboratory-derived temperature metric, critical thermal maximum (CTMax), in hatchery-reared Gila trout from three lineages (Main Diamond, South Diamond, and Whiskey Creek) to determine if CTMax differed among the lineages. The average initial (28.9°C, SD = 0.81°C) and final (29.2°C, SD = 0.74°C) temperature at loss of righting responses did not differ across the lineages. We compared the CTMax values with stream temperatures across three drainages representative of extant Gila trout populations from spring 2015 to fall 2018. The East Fork Gila River drainage was represented by more extreme stream temperatures. The maximum daily maximum temperature (i.e., single highest temperature) varied from 24.1 to 33.4°C, exceeding CTMax in four of the five streams. The maximum daily temperature varied from 12.1 to 28.6°C, and the mean weekly maximum temperature varied from 19.9 to 31.1°C. Mean weekly maximum temperature in Lower Diamond Creek exceeded CTMax on 11 occasions. Stream temperatures were cooler within the Middle and the West Fork Gila River drainages and did not exceed CTMax. Intermittency loggers within the East Fork Gila River drainage, which supports Main Diamond and South Diamond lineages of Gila trout, recorded over 300 days of intermittency during a drought. Continued long-term monitoring of stream temperature and comparison with CTMax of Gila trout could assist with decisions of which streams in the Gila Drainage are suitable for Gila trout recovery, stocking, and translocation.

New Mexico↗
USGS2007

Influence of fire on black-tailed prairie dog colony expansion in shortgrass steppe

Factors influencing the distribution and abundance of black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies are of interest to rangeland managers because of the significant influence prairie dogs can exert on both livestock and biodiversity. We examined the influence of 4 prescribed burns and one wildfire on the rate and direction of prairie dog colony expansion in shortgrass steppe of southeastern Colorado. Our study was conducted during 2 years with below-average precipitation, when prairie dog colonies were expanding throughout the study area. Under these dry conditions, the rate of black-tailed prairie dog colony expansion into burned grassland (X?? = 2.6 ha??100-m perimeter-1??y-1; range = 0.8-5.9 ha??100-m perimeter-1??y-1; N = 5 colonies) was marginally greater than the expansion rate into unburned grassland (X?? =1.3 ha??100-m perimeter-1??y-1; range = 0.2-4.9 ha??100-m perimeter-1??y-1; N = 23 colonies; P = 0.066). For 3 colonies that were burned on only a portion of their perimeter, we documented consistently high rates of expansion into the adjacent burned grassland (38%-42% of available burned habitat colonized) but variable expansion rates into the adjacent unburned grassland (2%-39% of available unburned habitat colonized). While our results provide evidence that burning can increase colony expansion rate even under conditions of low vegetative structure, this effect was minor at the scale of the overall colony complex because some unburned colonies were also able to expand at high rates. This result highlights the need to evaluate effects of fire on colony expansion during above-average rainfall years, when expansion into unburned grassland may be considerably lower.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2012

A common-garden study of resource-island effects on a native and an exotic, annual grass after fire

Plant-soil variation related to perennial-plant resource islands (coppices) interspersed with relatively bare interspaces is a major source of heterogeneity in desert rangelands. Our objective was to determine how native and exotic grasses vary on coppice mounds and interspaces (microsites) in unburned and burned sites and underlying factors that contribute to the variation in sagebrush-steppe rangelands of the Idaho National Lab, where interspaces typically have abiotic crusts. We asked how the exotic cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) and native bluebunch wheatgrass ( Pseudoroegneria spicata [Pursh] A. Löve) were distributed among the microsites and measured their abundances in three replicate wildfires and nearby unburned areas. We conducted a common-garden study in which soil cores from each burned microsite type were planted with seed of either species to determine microsite effects on establishment and growth of native and exotic grasses. We assessed soil physical properties in the common-garden study to determine the intrinsic properties of each microsite surface and the retention of microsite soil differences following transfer of soils to the garden, to plant growth, and to wetting/drying cycles. In the field study, only bluebunch wheatgrass density was greater on coppice mounds than interspaces, in both unburned and burned areas. In the common-garden experiment, there were microsite differences in soil physical properties, particularly in crust hardness and its relationship to moisture, but soil properties were unaffected by plant growth. Also in the experiment, both species had equal densities yet greater dry mass production on coppice-mound soils compared to interspace soils, suggesting microsite differences in growth but not establishment (likely related to crust weakening resulting from watering). Coppice-interspace patterning and specifically native-herb recovery on coppices is likely important for postfire resistance of this rangeland to cheatgrass.

Idaho↗
USGS2013

Outplanting Wyoming big sagebrush following wldfire: stock performance and economics

Finding ecologically and economically effective ways to establish matrix species is often critical for restoration success. Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata subsp. wyomingensis) historically dominated large areas of western North America, but has been extirpated from many areas by large wildfires; its re-establishment in these areas often requires active management. We evaluated the performance (survival, health) and economic costs of container and bare-root stock based on operational plantings of more than 1.5 million seedlings across 2 200 ha, and compared our plantings with 30 other plantings in which sagebrush survival was tracked for up to 5 yr. Plantings occurred between 2001 and 2007, and included 12 combinations of stock type, planting amendment, and planting year.We monitored 10 500 plants for up to 8 yr after planting. Survival to Year 3 averaged 21% and was higher for container stock (30%) than bare-root stock (17%). Survival did not differ among container stock plantings, whereas survival of bare-root stock was sometimes enhanced by a hydrogel dip before planting, but not by mycorrhizal amendments. Most mortality occurred during the first year after planting; this period is the greatest barrier to establishment of sagebrush stock. The proportion of healthy stock in Year 1 was positively related to subsequent survival to Year 3. Costs were minimized, and survival maximized, by planting container stock or bare-root stock with a hydrogel dip. Our results indicate that outplanting is an ecologically and economically effective way of establishing Wyoming big sagebrush. However, statistical analyses were limited by the fact that data about initial variables (stock quality, site conditions, weather) were often unrecorded and by the lack of a replicated experimental design. Sharing consistent data and using an experimental approach would help land managers and restoration practitioners maximize the success of outplanting efforts.

Washington↗
USGS2012

Environmental and medical geochemistry in urban disaster response and preparedness

History abounds with accounts of cities that were destroyed or significantly damaged by natural or anthropogenic disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildland–urban wildfires, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, urban firestorms, terrorist attacks, and armed conflicts. Burgeoning megacities place ever more people in the way of harm from future disasters. In addition to the physical damage, casualties, and injuries they cause, sudden urban disasters can also release into the environment large volumes of potentially hazardous materials. Environmental and medical geochemistry investigations help us to (1) understand the sources and environmental behavior of disaster materials, (2) assess potential threats the materials pose to the urban environment and health of urban populations, (3) develop strategies for their cleanup/disposal, and (4) anticipate and mitigate potential environmental and health effects from future urban disasters.

Elements↗
USGS2018

Long-term soil-water tension measurements in semi-arid environments: A method for automated tensiometer refilling

Tensiometer-equipped data acquisition systems measure and record positive and negative soil-water pressures. These data contribute to studies in hillslope hydrology, including analyses of rainfall runoff, near-surface hydrologic response, and slope stability. However, the unique ability of a tensiometer to rapidly and accurately measure pre- and post-saturation subsurface pressures requires maintenance techniques that have precluded their application to unattended sensor networks in semiarid regions. Under suction, the de-aired water in the tensiometer is drawn from a porous cup. Under positive pressure, dissolved gases from pore water infiltrates the cup. Over time, both contribute to unreliable readings and/or poor signal response through cavitation. To address this problem, we used commercially available equipment to develop a simple system of solenoid valves and a water reservoir that enable automated in situ tensiometer refilling. We tested the system at two post-wildfire hydrologic monitoring sites in the Angeles National Forest, southern California. We present example results from 3 mo of monitoring and show how the tensiometers can be refilled by a remote trigger. By remotely refilling the tensiometer, we were able to continuously monitor quasi-saturated soil pore-water pressures without making repeated and costly maintenance visits.

Vadose Zone Journal↗
USGS2013

Geochemical monitoring for potential environmental impacts of geologic sequestration of CO 2

Carbon dioxide sequestration is now considered an important component of the portfolio of options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to stabilize their atmospheric levels at values that would limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century (Pacala and Socolow 2004; IPCC 2005, 2007; Benson and Cook 2005; Benson and Cole 2008; IEA 2012; Romanak et al. 2013). Increased anthropogenic emissions of CO2 have raised its atmospheric concentrations from about 280 ppmv during pre-industrial times to ~400 ppmv today, and based on several defined scenarios, CO2 concentrations are projected to increase to values as high as 1100 ppmv by 2100 (White et al. 2003; IPCC 2005, 2007; EIA 2012; Global CCS Institute 2012). An atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450 ppmv is generally the accepted level that is needed to limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century. This temperature limit likely would moderate the adverse effects related to climate change that could include sea-level rise from the melting of alpine glaciers and continental ice sheets and from the ocean warming; increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, floods, droughts, and tropical storms; and changes in the amount, timing, and distribution of rain, snow, and runoff (IPCC 2007; Sundquist et al. 2009; IEA 2012). Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are also increasing the amount of CO2 dissolved in ocean water lowering its pH from 8.1 to 8.0, with potentially disruptive effects on coral reefs, plankton and marine ecosystems (Adams and Caldeira 2008; Schrag 2009; Sundquist et al. 2009). Sedimentary basins in general and deep saline aquifers in particular are being investigated as possible repositories for the large volumes of anthropogenic CO2 that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes (Hitchon 1996; Benson and Cole 2008; Verma and Warwick 2011).

Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry↗
USGS2023

The devil is in the details: Variation in public acceptance of fuels treatments across western fire-prone communities

Implementation of broad landscape management goals to confront the wildfire crisis occurs at the project level and is subject to public scrutiny. Although the research literature demonstrates broad public acceptability of fuels treatments, a closer examination of the studies reveals notable variation in acceptance. Survey data from thirteen western U.S. communities using the same measures of acceptability are presented. Results highlight high acceptance with notable variation in treatment type and study location. Results indicate that the devil is in the details.

Western Economics Forum↗
USGS1999

Long-term prairie falcon population changes in relation to prey abundance, weather, land uses, and habitat conditions

We studied a nesting population of Prairie Falcons ( Falco mexicanus ) in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) from 1974-1997 to identify factors that influence abundance and reproduction. Our sampling period included two major droughts and associated crashes in Townsend's ground squirrel ( Spermophilus townsendii ) populations. The number of Prairie Falcon pairs found on long-term survey segments declined significantly from 1976-1997. Early declines were most severe at the eastern end of the NCA, where fires and agriculture have changed native shrubsteppe habitat. More recent declines occurred in the portion of canyon near the Orchard Training Area (OTA), where the Idaho Army National Guard conducts artillery firing and tank maneuvers. Overall Prairie Falcon reproductive rates were tied closely to annual indexes of ground squirrel abundance, but precipitation before and during the breeding season was related inversely to some measures of reproduction. Most reproductive parameters showed no significant trends over time, but during the 1990s, nesting success and productivity were lower in the stretch of canyon near the OTA than in adjacent areas. Extensive shrub loss, by itself, did not explain the pattern of declines in abundance and reproduction that we observed. Recent military training activities likely have interacted with fire and livestock grazing to create less than favorable foraging opportunities for Prairie Falcons in a large part of the NCA. To maintain Prairie Falcon populations in the NCA, managers should suppress wildfires, restore native plant communities, and regulate potentially incompatible land uses.

The Condor↗
USGS2022

Introduction to the special issue on fire impacts on hydrological processes

Fire has been present on the Earth since vegetation began colonizing the continents (Santos et al., 2017). The role of fire on terrestrial sedimentation processes was already highlighted by Schumm (1968) in his pioneering research to understand the detachment, transport, and sedimentation of material on the Planet. The use of fire by humans as a tool that transformed the landscapes of the world has been widely accepted (Wang et al., 1999). Glacial-interglacial changes can affect vegetation with resulting implications for global fire regimes and trace gas emissions (Thonicke et al., 2005). Wildfire effects on vegetation can, in turn, alter soil erosion rates (Lenton, 2001), which is mainly due to the control plants exert on soil erosion processes (López-Vicente et al., 2021).

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics↗
USGS2018

New England and northern New York forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: A report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework project

Forest ecosystems will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems across the New England region (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, northern New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont) under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and natural resource professionals familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show that the mean annual temperature has increased across the region by 2.4 °F, with even greater warming during winter. Precipitation patterns also changed during this time, with a slight trend toward greater annual precipitation and a substantial increase in extreme precipitation events. Projected climate trends using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 3 to 8 °F for the assessment area by 2100. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in fall and winter precipitation, and spring and summer precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these future climate projections into three forest impact models (DISTRIB, LINKAGES, and LANDIS PRO). Model projections suggest that many northern and boreal species, including balsam fir, red spruce, and black spruce, may fare worse under future conditions, but other species may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and forest pests and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for eight forest communities in the assessment area. The assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process with 20 scientists and resource managers from across the area, who considered vulnerability in terms of the potential impacts and the adaptive capacity for an individual community. Montane spruce-fir, low-elevation spruce-fir, and lowland mixed conifer forests were determined to be the most vulnerable communities. Central hardwoods, transition hardwoods, and pitch pine-scrub oak forests were perceived as having lower vulnerability to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent animals and plants, recreation, and long-term natural resource planning.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2025

Chapter 6: Climate change, wildlife, and wildlife habitats in the Oregon Coast Range

Climate change is likely to have profound effects on wildlife species within the Oregon Coast Adaptation Partnership (OCAP) assessment area, although the direction and magnitude of effects are likely to vary across species. Increased mean and extreme temperatures, especially during summer, may cause shifts in plant and animal species ranges, reduce habitat for some temperature-sensitive wildlife, alter plant phenology and the timing of available food resources, and affect species interactions (e.g., predation, competition). Altered timing of precipitation, summer drought, loss of fog, increased flooding events, earlier snowmelt, and rising sea level may reduce plant productivity, increase tree mortality, shift plant species composition, and lead to reduced wildlife habitat and habitat quality for some forests, riparian areas, wetlands, meadows, estuaries, and beaches. In addition, increasing frequency and extent of wildfire and insect outbreaks may reduce the extent of late-successional forest, reduce habitat connectivity, and increase the spread of invasive species. The biggest change expected for the assessment area is an increase in area where climatic conditions favor coastal mixed forest and a large reduction in area favoring montane conifer forest. Although actual changes in forest types may not necessarily occur by the end of the 21st century, climate change may add physiological and behavioral stress to wildlife. Some wildlife species will be able to persist in place and adapt to new conditions; some may be able to migrate to find suitable habitat; and some may be greatly reduced or extirpated from the assessment area or even go extinct. Shifts in major tree and shrub species will play a major role in food, den, and cover availability for wildlife. Rising sea level will reduce low-elevation habitats along the coast. An increase in the frequency of high-severity weather events will increase frequency and magnitude of flooding, including debris flow events. Coupled with increased temperatures during summer, this may reduce or fragment important ecosystems for aquatic and semi-aquatic species. Evaluation of the vulnerabilities of nine wildlife species based on literature reviews suggests that each species has life-history attributes that can lead to resilience or vulnerability to climate change effects. Depending on long-term objectives, several broad adaptation strategies focus on protecting refugia, establishing redundant wildlife strongholds with large-scale connectivity, and promoting structural and biological complexity.

Oregon↗
USGS2006

The role of fire refugia in the distribution of Pinus sabiniana (Pinaceae) in the southern Sierra Nevada

Although widespread throughout the interior foothills of central and northern California, Pinus sabiniana Dougl. has a disjunct distribution in the southern Sierra Nevada, where it is abundant in the Kern River and Tule River watersheds, but is absent from the Kaweah River watershed between 36° and 37°N. This gap in the pine's distribution has long intrigued botanists and ecologists and has elicited a number of hypotheses for this anomalous biogeographical pattern. Here we propose a new hypothesis that couples unique features of the southern Sierra Nevada topography with unique features of P. sabiniana 's response to fire. This low elevation pine is widely distributed in grassland and chaparral, and where it occurs with the latter vegetation, it is extremely vulnerable to high intensity wildfires. Under these conditions, meta-populations persist over time in refugia in riparian areas and during fire-free intervals expand outwards re-colonizing shrubland dominated slopes. The lack of such refugia in the very steep and narrow Kaweah drainage is hypothesized to explain the absence of this pine in that area. To test this hypothesis, we studied the age-structure of P. sabiniana in the area of the 2002 McNally Fire in the Kern drainage to compare age distributions of trees and tree skeletons along a gradient up slope away from riparian zones. Maximum age declined significantly with distance from riparian areas, suggesting that past fires have eliminated P. sabiniana from the slopes and that the pines have re-colonized during fire-free intervals. The relationship was strongest when our data were restricted to areas that had a previously recorded fire. We also found that the riparian areas in the Kern drainage were significantly wider than those in Kaweah drainage, suggesting that fewer such fire refugia exist in the latter watershed, and providing an explanation for the lack of P. sabiniana between 36° and 37°.

California↗
USGS2009

Pinon and Juniper Field Guide: Asking the Right Questions to Select Appropriate Management Actions

Pinon-juniper woodlands are an important vegetation type in the Great Basin. Old-growth and open shrub savanna woodlands have been present over much of the last several hundred years. Strong evidence indicates these woodlands have experienced significant tree infilling and major expansion in their distribution since the late 1800s by encroaching into surrounding landscapes once dominated by shrubs and herbaceous vegetation. Both infilling and expansion affects soil resources, plant community structure and composition, water and nutrient cycles, forage production, wildlife habitat, biodiversity, and fire patterns across the landscape. Another impact is the shift from historic fire regimes to larger and more intense wildfires that are increasingly determining the future of this landscape. This publication helps biologists and land managers consider how to look at expansion of woodlands and determine what questions to ask to develop a management strategy, including prescribed fire or other practices.

Circular↗
USGS2013

Challenge theme 6: Natural hazard risks in the Borderlands: Chapter 8 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides and debris flows, wildfires, hurricanes, and intense storm-induced flash floods threaten communities to varying degrees all along the United States–Mexican border. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborates with Federal, State, and local agencies to minimize the effects of natural hazards by providing timely, unbiased science information to emergency response officials, resource managers, and the public to help reduce property damage, injury, and loss of life. The USGS often mobilizes response efforts during and after a natural hazard event to provide technical and scientific counsel on recovery and response, and it has a long history of deploying emergency response teams to major disasters in both domestic and international locations. This chapter describes the challenges of natural hazards in the United States–Mexican border region and the capabilities of the USGS in the fields of hazard research, monitoring, and assessment, as well as preventative mitigation and post-disaster response.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗
USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy— Promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation

Executive Summary The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

Circular↗
USGS2018

Science for a risky world—A U.S. Geological Survey plan for risk research and applications

Executive Summary Natural hazards—including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, hurricanes, droughts, floods, wildfires, geomagnetic storms, and pandemics—can wreak havoc on human communities, the economy, and natural resources for years following an initial event. Hazards can claim lives and cause billions of dollars in damage to homes and infrastructure as well as lost or compromised economic activity and threats to national security. They also can have adverse environmental, social, economic, and health effects that extend well beyond the immediate area, sometimes with global implications. Changes in population growth, climate, and urbanization may exacerbate hazard impacts. Because of the potential severity of a single hazard event, reducing risk—the potential loss of societally important assets caused by these hazards—is a high priority for everyone, including policy makers, community members, emergency managers, resource managers, utility operators, business owners, and planners. These stakeholders demand usable, user-centric information to support decisions for planning a resilient future and for responding to and recovering from unanticipated events in more adaptable and cost-effective ways. Meeting this demand requires maximizing the use of environmental observations; hazards science; and research on communications, social stressors, and human behavior to deliver risk information in forms that are accessible by decision makers and the public alike. To achieve this, scientists and stakeholders must collaborate to match community needs with actionable insights, research, products, and tools, using advances in technology to improve information discovery and delivery.

Circular↗
USGS2022

Ungulate migration in a changing climate—An initial assessment of climate impacts, management priorities, and science needs

Executive Summary Migratory behavior among ungulates in the Western United States occurs in response to changing forage quality and quantity, weather patterns, and predation risk. As snow melts and vegetation green-up begins in late spring and early summer, many migratory ungulates leave their winter range and move to higher elevation summer ranges to access high-quality forage and areas with vegetative cover for protection during fawning. Ungulates remain on these ranges until the fall when increasing snowfall and decreasing temperatures trigger them to migrate back to their lower elevation winter ranges. While researchers have begun to assess the effects of physical barriers such as roads and energy infrastructure on migration, less attention has been paid to understanding how changing climate conditions might affect ungulate movements and range habitats. Does earlier spring green-up make ungulates leave their winter ranges sooner? Do persistent drought conditions reduce the carrying capacity of seasonal range habitats or lead to shifts in migration pathways? These and other questions remain largely unanswered but could have cascading effects on ungulate population dynamics and migratory behavior. In February 2018, the Secretary of the Interior signed Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362 (SO3362), “Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors.” The order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn in 11 Western States, directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the National Park Service (NPS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to partner with State wildlife agencies on their priorities and objectives for identifying and conserving ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat. The USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) were established to help managers of the Nation’s fish, wildlife, waters, and lands understand the effects of climate change and adapt to changing conditions. To support the recent Department of the Interior (DOI) emphasis on ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat, this report assesses current information on how climate change could affect elk, mule deer, and pronghorn migration. The report synthesizes the drivers of migration, outlines what is known about how climate change might affect these drivers, and summarizes management priorities and science needs related to ungulate migration corridors and range habitat. A review of the literature on ungulate migration shows that the core drivers of spring migration are the timing of spring green-up and snowmelt, and the core driver of fall migration is winter severity. After exploring what is known about how these drivers affect or could be affected by climate change, several pathways through which ungulate migration could be altered were identified: (1) ungulates alter migration timing to better track plant phenology or in response to changes in winter conditions; (2) ungulates change their migration route or distance traveled during migration to accommodate changes in environmental conditions; and (3) ungulate populations that are currently migratory may begin to demonstrate interannual variability in whether they migrate, depending on environmental conditions and density-dependence, and may remain resident for sets of consecutive years. Through discussions with managers, physical barriers to movement such as roads and fences were identified as a core concern. In addition, the primary research needs of States are the acquisition and analysis of data on ungulate movements, to refine delineation of winter range, summer range, and corridors, and to support a better understanding of how ungulates use these habitats. When it comes to understanding climate effects, managers were more concerned with understanding the vulnerability of winter- and summer-range habitats than the vulnerability of migration corridors because of the influence of summer and winter forage on ungulate condition and reproductive success. Managers were also concerned about how forage quality and quantity might change because of stressors such as drought, wildfire, and invasive species and how they might need to alter habitat-treatment strategies as a result. More baseline data are needed before effective projections of ungulate migration, at a West-wide scale under climate change, can be made. These data needs include (1) more clearly defined corridors and seasonal range habitats; (2) a comprehensive understanding of the ecological drivers of migration across ungulate species and populations; and (3) the identification of environmental thresholds for key variables that influence migration, above which ungulates alter migratory behavior. The CASCs have several opportunities to play a role in addressing these needs. The CASCs could initiate projects to identify past and potential future changes and trends in key variables known to affect ungulate migration, such as plant phenology, forage quality, or winter severity. However, it would be difficult to use this information to determine what those trends mean for ungulate migration due to the lack of knowledge about environmental thresholds for ungulates. Additional projects would be required to compare multiple years of movement data with key variables to define thresholds. Once available, information on environmental thresholds could be integrated with projections of key variables to forecast the likelihood that the migration routes or the distance traveled could change—another area in which the CASCs could contribute. A more immediate role for the CASCs would be to carry out synthesis projects. One such project could summarize the “state of the science” on the drivers of ungulate migration. Although there are dozens of population- and location-specific studies on this topic, collating this information could help highlight trends in migration drivers that span species and geographies: a necessary first step toward determining the extent to which migration drivers could be affected by climate change. A second project could focus on what is known about how climate variability and change affect ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in the Western United States. The goal of this effort could be to identify knowledge clusters and information gaps that require further investigation. Together, these synthesized products could focus future scientific activities on the most pressing issues of ungulate migration and climate change in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗