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Agri-tourism and rural outdoor recreation in the US: A framework for understanding economic and employment dynamics

Agri-tourism and rural outdoor recreation are positioned at an important intersection between agricultural, natural resource, economic development and rural issues. This chapter summarizes some of the important dynamics of these sectors, including the role of land use, regional drivers, motivations for farmers and travelers, and economic impacts. As a means to illustrate several key points, highlights of several case studies, papers and reports about rural outdoor and agricultural tourism are summarized. To conclude, a research agenda for those interested in the role of tourism to rural economies is framed.

Book chapter↗

Fort Collins Science Center: Aquatic Systems and Technology Applications

Land and water management agencies are responsible for restoring and conserving our nation's natural resources. However, they face increasing, often competing demands for those resources, which can result in alteration or loss of critical riverine, riparian, wetland, and terrestrial habitats. Land and resource managers may be in federal, state, or local government, but all have the same need for quantitative, objective, science-based information that helps them plan, manage, and conserve the natural resources within their purview. The Aquatic Systems and Technology Applications Branch (ASTA) of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) encompasses a wide variety of studies, investigations, and activities that are related to providing tools and capabilities for natural resource managers. ASTA's mission is to provide managers with credible science-based information on the interrelationships among the physical, chemical, aquatic, and biological natural resources in river basins for resource management decision-making. Branch goals are to: develop and apply specific models and analysis tools for resource management issues, identify habitat and biological linkages in river corridor environments, design and evaluate specific water quality improvement features, define economic measures for natural resource benefits, investigate altered flow regime effects on native fish populations, characterize sediment transport effects in river corridor environments, and utilize advanced technology to evaluate landscape-scale changes in river basins.

Fact Sheet↗

Topographic Science

The mission of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center Topographic Science is to establish partnerships and conduct research and applications that facilitate the development and use of integrated national and global topographic datasets. Topographic Science includes a wide range of research and applications that result in improved seamless topographic datasets, advanced elevation technology, data integration and terrain visualization, new and improved elevation derivatives, and development of Web-based tools. In cooperation with our partners, Topographic Science is developing integrated-science applications for mapping, national natural resource initiatives, hazards, and global change science. http://topotools.cr.usgs.gov/.

Fact Sheet↗

Developing a Vision: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Decision Making - Proceedings of a Workshop

The production, location, use, and value of ecosystem services have become an important factor in resource management. Decisions relating to resource conservation and restoration, as well as development, require an understanding of the services provided by natural systems and the response of these systems to natural and human-induced change. Increased demands for development and the resulting pressures on ecosystem services have lent urgency to the need for an improved understanding of the value of natural capital. However, resource management decisions are often made without considering the importance and value of services resulting from natural systems.

Open-File Report↗

Information relevant to the U.S. Geological Survey assessment of the Middle Devonian Shale of the Appalachian Basin Province, 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey recently assessed the potential for natural gas resources in the Middle Devonian Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin Province. The Marcellus Shale was assessed as a continuous gas accumulation using a methodology identical to that used in the assessment of shale and other continuous-type assessment units throughout the United States. This preliminary report provides some additional geologic information used in the Marcellus Shale assessment. The Appalachian Basin Province encompasses rocks of the Paleozoic passive margins, the foreland basins, and fold and thrust belts formed during several episodes in the Paleozoic. The Marcellus Shale is one of many marine shales deposited in the area that is now encompassed by the Appalachian Basin Province.

Appalachian Basin Province↗

2011 Year in review - Earth Resources Observation and Science Center

The USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center's 2011 Year in Review is an annual report recounting the broad scope of the Center's 2011 accomplishments. The report covers preparations for the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) launch, the ever-increasing use of free Landsat data, monitoring the effects of natural hazards, and more to emphasize the importance of innovation in using satellite data to study change over time.

South Dakota↗

Simulation of groundwater flow and effects of groundwater irrigation on stream base flow in the Elkhorn and Loup River basins, Nebraska, 1895-2055: Phase Two

Regional groundwater-flow simulations for a 30,000-square-mile area of the High Plains aquifer, referred to collectively as the Elkhorn-Loup Model, were developed to predict the effects of groundwater irrigation on stream base flow in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, Nebraska. Simulations described the stream-aquifer system from predevelopment through 2005 [including predevelopment (pre-1895), early development (1895-1940), and historical development (1940 through 2005) conditions] and future hypothetical development conditions (2006 through 2033 or 2055). Predicted changes to stream base flow that resulted from simulated changes to groundwater irrigation will aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected water supplies. The predevelopment through 2005 simulation was calibrated using an automated parameter-estimation method to optimize the fit to pre-1940 groundwater levels and base flows, 1945 through 2005 decadal groundwater-level changes, and 1940 through 2005 base flows. The calibration results of the pre-1940 period indicated that 81 percent of the simulated groundwater levels were within 30 feet of the measured water levels. The results did not indicate large areas of simulated groundwater levels that were biased too high or too low, indicating that the simulation generally captures the regional trends. Calibration results using 1945 through 2005 decadal groundwater-level changes indicated that a majority of the simulated groundwater-level changes were within 5 feet of the changes calculated from measured groundwater levels. Simulated groundwater-level rises generally were smaller than measured rises near surface-water irrigation districts. Simulated groundwater-level declines were larger than measured declines in several parts of the study area having large amounts of irrigated crops. Base-flow trends and volumes generally were reproduced by the simulation at most sites. Exceptions include downward trends of simulated base flow from the 1970s to the end of the calibration period for the Elkhorn River at Norfolk, Beaver Creek at Genoa, and Cedar River near Fullerton. Effects of groundwater irrigation on stream base flow were predicted using several methods: (1) simulated base-flow depletion was mapped to represent the percentage of water pumped from a hypothetical well during 2006 through 2055 that corresponds to base-flow depletions at the end of that 50-year period; (2) the groundwater-flow simulation predicted changes in stream base flow that result from modifying the number of irrigated acres in a 25-year period (2009 through 2033); and (3) a simulation-optimization model determined the minimum reduction of groundwater pumpage that would be necessary in the Elkhorn River Basin in a 25-year period (2009 through 2033) to comply with various hypothetical base-flow requirements for the Elkhorn River. The results are not intended to determine specific management plans that must be adopted, but rather to improve the understanding of how base flow is affected by irrigation. A 50-year simulation (2006-55) indicated that depletions of less than 10 percent of pumpage mainly occur in areas that are about 10 miles or farther from the Elkhorn and Loup Rivers and their tributaries. The calibrated simulation was used to predict the 25-year effect on base flow of a 10 percent decrease in irrigated acres and the effect of increasing acres at the presently (2010) allowed rate. Hypothesized changes to irrigated acres were applied only to areas where mapped base-flow depletions were at least 10 percent of pumpage. The effect of changes in irrigated acres includes the combined effects of changes to pumpage and additional recharge from irrigated acres. When irrigated acres were decreased by 10 percent within selected areas of four Natural Resources Districts (a total reduction of about 120,000 acres and a 5 percent reduction in irrigation pumpage), simulated base flow was predicted to inc

Nebraska↗

Two-dimensional hydraulic model for the Chain of Lakes on the Fox River near McHenry, Illinois

Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers operating the Stratton Dam at McHenry, Illinois. These managers determine the optimal operation of the Stratton Dam at McHenry, Ill., to manage Chain of Lakes pool levels and to help mitigate flooding in the Chain of Lakes system. In 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Illinois Department of Natural Resources–Office of Water Resources (IDNR–OWR) began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate water-surface elevations and flows and to proactively prepare for runoff events forecasted for the Chain of Lakes. The hydraulic model described in this report may be helpful to the IDNR–OWR for optimizing the operation of the Stratton Dam and includes the implementation of three newly installed torque-tube crest gates that became operational in 2020. The hydraulic model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System program (version 6.5). The hydraulic model was used to simulate water-surface elevations and flows through the 18.5-mile Chain of Lakes system to 1.7 miles downstream from the Stratton Dam. Five USGS streamgages within the study area were used as reference points for model calibration and initial water-surface elevations for beginning a simulation. The hydraulic model was calibrated to three runoff events that incorporated the design specifications and observed gate operations of the Stratton Dam; furthermore, the hydraulic model simulated a validation event and a substantial flooding event during July 2017. The July 2017 event predated the torque-tube crest gate installation but nevertheless tested the performance of the model for such a substantial event. The model simulation results were a good fit to observed records at USGS streamgages with simulated peak water-surface elevations within −0.36–0.15 foot of observed events. The hydraulic model was then implemented into a forecast workflow that streamlines implementation of model inputs and documents the model outputs tailored to IDNR–OWS Stratton Dam operations and interpretations of simulated water-surface elevations and flows.

Illinois↗

Conceptual model of the uppermost principal aquifer systems in the Williston and Powder River structural basins, United States and Canada

The three uppermost principal aquifer systems of the Northern Great Plains—the glacial, lower Tertiary, and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems—are described in this report and provide water for irrigation, mining, public and domestic supply, livestock, and industrial uses. These aquifer systems primarily are present in two nationally important fossil-fuelproducing areas: the Williston and Powder River structural basins in the United States and Canada. The glacial aquifer system is contained within glacial deposits that overlie the lower Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems in the northeastern part of the Williston structural basin. Productive sand and gravel aquifers exist within this aquifer system. The Upper Cretaceous aquifer system is contained within bedrock lithostratigraphic units as deep as 2,850 and 8,500 feet below land surface in the Williston and Powder River structural basins, respectively. Petroleum extraction from much deeper formations, such as the Bakken Formation, is rapidly increasing because of recently improved hydraulic fracturing methods that require large volumes of relatively freshwater from shallow aquifers or surface water. Extraction of coalbed natural gas from within the lower Tertiary aquifer system requires removal of large volumes of groundwater to allow degasification. Recognizing the importance of understanding water resources in these energy-rich basins, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater Resources Program ( http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/gwrp/ ) began a groundwater study of the Williston and Powder River structural basins in 2011 to quantify this groundwater resource, the results of which are described in this report. The overall objective of this study was to characterize, quantify, and provide an improved conceptual understanding of the three uppermost and principal aquifer systems in energy-resource areas of the Northern Great Plains to assist in groundwater-resource management for multiple uses. The study area includes parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming in the United States and Manitoba and Saskatchewan in Canada. The glacial aquifer system is contained within glacial drift consisting primarily of till, with smaller amounts of glacial outwash sand and gravel deposits. The lower Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems are contained within several formations of the Tertiary and Cretaceous geologic systems, which are hydraulically separated from underlying aquifers by a basal confining unit. The lower Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems each were divided into three hydrogeologic units that correspond to one or more lithostratigraphic units. The period prior to 1960 is defined as the predevelopment period when little groundwater was extracted. From 1960 through 1990, numerous flowing wells were installed near the Yellowstone, Little Missouri and Knife Rivers, resulting in local groundwater declines. Recently developed technologies for the extraction of petroleum resources, which largely have been applied in the study area since about 2005, require millions of gallons of water for construction of each well, with additional water needed for long-term operation; therefore, the potential for an increase in groundwater extraction is high. In this study, groundwater recharge and discharge components were estimated for the period 1981–2005. Groundwater recharge primarily occurs from infiltration of rainfall and snowmelt (precipitation recharge) and infiltration of streams into the ground (stream infiltration). Total estimated recharge to the Williston and Powder River control volumes is 4,560 and 1,500 cubic feet per second, respectively. Estimated precipitation recharge is 26 and 15 percent of total recharge for the Williston and Powder River control volumes, respectively. Estimated stream infiltration is 71 and 80 percent of total recharge for the Williston and Powder River control volumes, respectively. Groundwater discharge primarily is to streams and springs and is estimated to be about 97 and 92 percent of total discharge for the Williston and Powder River control volumes, respectively. Most of the remaining discharge results from pumped and flowing wells. Groundwater flow in the Williston structural basin generally is from the west and southwest toward the east, where discharge to streams occurs. Locally, in the uppermost hydrogeologic units, groundwater generally is unconfined and flows from topographically high to low areas, where discharge to streams occurs. Groundwater flow in the Powder River structural basin generally is toward the north, with local variations, particularly in the upper Fort Union aquifer, where flow is toward streams.

Manitoba;Montana;North Dakota;Saskatchewan;South D↗

Science support for evaluating natural recovery of polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations in fish from Crab Orchard Lake, Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge, Illinois

Introduction Crab Orchard Lake in southern Illinois is one of the largest and most popular recreational lakes in the state. Construction of the nearly 7,000-acre reservoir in the late 1930s created employment opportunities through the Works Progress Administration, and the lake itself was intended to supply water, control flooding, and provide recreational opportunities for local communities (Stall, 1954). In 1942, the Department of War appropriated or purchased more than 20,000 acres of land around Crab Orchard Lake and constructed the Illinois Ordnance Plant, which manufactured bombs and anti-tank mines during World War II. After the war, an Act of Congress transferred the property to the U.S. Department of the Interior. Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge was established on August 5, 1947, for the joint purposes of wildlife conservation, agriculture, recreation, and industry. Production of explosives continued, but new industries also moved onsite. More than 200 tenants have held leases with Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge and have operated a variety of manufacturing plants (electrical components, plated metal parts, ink, machined parts, painted products, and boats) on-site. Soils, water, and sediments in several areas of the refuge were contaminated with hazardous substances from handling and disposal methods that are no longer acceptable environmental practice (for example, direct discharge to surface water, use of unlined landfills). Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination at the refuge was identified in the 1970s, and a PCB-based fish-consumption advisory has been in effect since 1988 for Crab Orchard Lake. The present advisory covers common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) and channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ); see Illinois Department of Public Health (2017). Some of the most contaminated areas of the refuge were actively remediated, and natural ecosystem recovery processes are expected to further reduce residual PCB concentrations in the lake. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service sought technical support to understand environmental drivers of current (2017) PCB residues in fish tissue and patterns in PCB residues through time to inform the fish-consumption advisory for Crab Orchard Lake. This project is planned in two phases (Tasks 1 and 2); the first phase is included in this report. Task 1, reported here, includes a review of existing literature and a brief overview focused on environmental and biochemical/physiological processes that drive PCB residues in fish tissue. This review specifically targets processes that are relevant for freshwater lacustrine environments such as those at Crab Orchard Lake. In addition to discussions of environmental fate, metabolism, and accumulation of PCBs, this review includes a brief scientifically based explanation of approaches used to establish fish-consumption advisories. A planned second task (Task 2) will include a compilation and summary of existing data on PCB residues in fish tissue samples from Crab Orchard Lake. This summary will also place Crab Orchard Lake data in a broader geographic context through a comparison with fish data from other Midwestern lakes. When Task 1 and Task 2 are complete, resource managers will have (a) a synthesis of existing literature that characterizes the processes influencing the fate of residual PCBs remaining in systems such as Crab Orchard Lake, (b) a summary of natural PCB attenuation processes for use in risk communication with the public, and (c) a summary of existing data on PCBs in fish tissues from Crab Orchard Lake, including exploratory plots of tissue residues through time. Overall, this project will provide data to help resource managers better understand the ecological and public health consequences of residual PCBs in Crab Orchard Lake.

Illinois↗

Shoals and valley plugs in the Hatchie River watershed

Agricultural land use and gully erosion have historically contributed more sediment to the streams of the Hatchie River watershed than those streams can carry. In 1970, the main sedimentation problem in the watershed occurred in the tributary flood plains. This problem motivated channelization projects (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1970). By the mid-1980's, concern had shifted to sedimentation in the Hatchie River itself where channelized tributaries were understood to contribute much of the sediment. The Soil Conservation Service [Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) since 1996] estimated that 640,000 tons of bedload (sand) accumulates in the Hatchie River each year and identified roughly the eastern two-thirds of the watershed, where loess is thin or absent, as the main source of sand (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1986a). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the West Tennessee River Basin Authority (WTRBA), conducted a study of sediment accumulation in the Hatchie River and its tributaries. This report identifies the types of tributaries and evaluates sediment, shoal formation, and valley-plug problems. The results presented here may contribute to a better understanding of similar problems in West Tennessee and the rest of the southeastern coastal plain. This information also will help the WTRBA manage sedimentation and erosion problems in the Hatchie River watershed. The source of the Mississippi section of the Hatchie River is in the sand hills southwest of Corinth, Mississippi (fig. 1). This section of the Hatchie River flows northward in an artificial drainage canal, gathering water from tributary streams that also are channelized. The drainage canal ends 2 miles south of the Tennessee State line. The Tennessee section of the Hatchie River winds north and west in a meandering natural channel to the Mississippi River. Although most of the Hatchie River tributaries are also drainage canals, the river's main stem has kept most of its natural character. The Hatchie River flows through a wide valley bottom occupied mostly by riverine wetland. Historically, the valley bottom has supported hardwood forests. Since publication of the first Hatchie River report (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1970), the channel of the river has become shallower, and flooding has increased (U.S. Department of Agriculture 1986b). These wetter conditions inhibit growth of hardwoods and lead to premature hardwood mortality. The NRCS has predicted that despite efforts to control erosion in the uplands, most of the valley-bottom forest will die. '...swamping may be so prevalent as to change most of the Hatchie River Basin flood plain into a marsh condition, with the only remnants of the present bottomland hardwood timber remaining. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1986b). Loss of channel depth has been concentrated in short reaches near tributary mouths. At the mouths of Richland, Porters, Clover, and Muddy Creeks, navigation has become difficult for recreational users (Johnny Carlin, West Tennessee River Basin Authority, oral commun., 1998). As the low-gradient alluvial system of the Hatchie River accumulates sediment, another common outcome has been the formation of valley plugs, areas where 'channels are filled with sediment, and all the additional bedload brought downstream is then spread out over the flood plain until a new channel has been formed' (Happ, 1975). Valley plugs typically form where the slope of a sand-laden tributary decreases downstream, or where the tributary joins its parent stream (Happ and others, 1940; Diehl, 1994, 1997; Smith and Diehl, 2000).

Mississippi, Tennessee↗

Geohydrologic and water-quality characterization of a fractured-bedrock test hole in an area of Marcellus Shale gas development, Sullivan County, Pennsylvania

The stratigraphy, water-bearing zones, and quality of groundwater were characterized in a 1,400-ft-deep test hole drilled during 2013 in fractured bedrock in Sullivan County, Pa., by collection and analysis of measurements made during drilling, geophysical logs, and depth-specific hydraulic tests and water samples. The multidisciplinary characterization of the test hole was a cooperative effort between the Pennsylvania Department of Natural Resources, Bureau of Geological Survey (BGS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The study provided information to aid the bedrock mapping of the Laporte 7.5-minute quad-rangle by BGS to help quantify the depth and character of fresh and saline groundwater in an area of shale-gas exploration (described in this report), which could help gas operators protect groundwater resources. The Laporte test hole was drilled with air-hammer methods in an upland setting in the headwaters of Loyalsock Creek in the Glaciated High Plateau section of the Appalachian Plateaus physiographic province. Bedrock residuum and till were penetrated from land surface to 8.5 ft, the Huntley Mountain Formation of Mississippian and Devonian age was penetrated from 8.5 to 540 ft, and the Catskill Formation of Devonian age was penetrated from 540 to 1,400 ft. Fractures, determined from optical televiewer, acoustic televiewer, and video logs, were commonly encountered to 200 ft bls (below land surface), then decreased exponentially with depth, except at a highly fractured zone from 637 to 644 ft bls. Most fractures were along bedding planes and had a strike of about 243 degrees and dip about 4 degrees to the northwest, consistent with the test-hole location on the north limb of the Muncy Creek anticline. Few fractures were noted below 650 ft. The depths of fresh and saline water-bearing fracture zones were identified in the test hole by geophysical-log analysis and were verified by pumping samples from zones isolated with packers and by collecting samples in the open hole with a wire-line point sampler. Six water-bearing zones associated with single or multiple fractures were identified at depths of 130–135, 180, 267–275, 425, 637–644, and 1,003 ft bls. Under ambient conditions, fresh water entered the hole from fractures at 130-135 and 180 ft bls, flowed downward and exited at fractures from 267–275, 425, and 637–644 ft. When pumped at 16.2 gal/min, most of the water from the open test hole was contributed from the fracture at 180 ft bls. Transmissivity, estimated from analysis of the specific-capacity data and flowmeter logs, is about 850 ft 2 /d for the entire open hole, and about 60 percent of the transmissivity is contributed from the fracture zone at 180 ft bls. The hydraulic heads in the deep water-bearing zones at 425 and 637–644 ft were about 100 ft lower than hydraulic heads in shallow water-bearing zones at 180 ft bls and above, indicating a large downward vertical hydraulic gradient. Water samples pumped from fracture zones isolated by packers at and above the water-bearing zone at 450 ft bls were fresh with dissolved-solids contents of 105 mg/L or less. The sample isolated at 637–644 ft bls was probably affected by leakage around packers, but the specific-conductance samples collected during drilling that were believed to be representa-tive of the fracture zone at 637–644 ft bls indicated slightly saline water. Below the 637–644 ft zone, a flowmeter log in the open hole did not detect any vertical flow, and the temperature log approached the geothermal gradient, indicating little ambient fluid flow and minimal fracture transmissivity below this depth. A petrophysical-log analysis using estimates of formation water resistivity from Archie’s Equation indicated an apparent transition from fresh to saline water in the sandstones occurs between 450 to 900 ft bls, with saline water indicated below 900 ft. Small seeps of saline water were delineated at 958, 989, and 1,003 ft bls by a time series of specific-conductance logs, and a discrete-point water sample at 990 ft bls with total dissolved-solids concentration of 19,900 mg/L verified that highly saline water was present below 900 ft bls. Occurrence of saline water at a depth of about 900 ft bls is below altitude of streams within 3 to 5 miles of the test hole but is about 930 ft above the altitude at the mouth of Loyalsock Creek where is enters the West Branch Susquehanna River at Montours-ville, Pa. The depth to saline water in this test hole is close to depths estimated at two other deep test holes drilled by the BGS in upland settings in Bradford and Tioga Counties in north-ern Pennsylvania. The saline water from 990 ft bls had a chemical composition similar to Appalachian Basin brines that had been diluted with fresh water. Predominant ions in the saline water were sodium, chloride, and calcium. Trace constituents of strontium, bromide, barium, lithium, and molybdenum were all more than 5,000 times greater than in freshwater samples from 167 or 270 ft bls. Methane concentration in the saline water sample from 990 ft was 120 mg/L. The concentration ratios of methane to higher-chain hydrocarbon gases and isotopic ratios of 13 C/ 12 C and 2 H/ 1 H of methane indicate that the gases are likely of thermogenic origin. In the sample from 990 ft bls, the 13 C/ 12 C of methane was less negative (-34.81 per mil) than 13 C/ 12 C of ethane (-37.1 per mil). Isotopic reversals such as this are generally found in gases from rocks older than the Catskill Formation, so its recognition in a natural upland setting at relatively shallow depth could be important when interpreting isotopic results to identify the origin of stray gas in the area.

Pennsylvania↗

Seismic monitoring at Cascade volcanic centers, 2004 — Status and recommendations

The purpose of this report is to assess the current (May, 2004) status of seismic monitoring networks at the 13 major Cascade volcanic centers. Included in this assessment are descriptions of each network, analyses of the ability of each network to detect and to locate seismic activity, identification of specific weaknesses in each network, and a prioritized list of those networks that are most in need of additional seismic stations. At the outset it should be recognized that no Cascade volcanic center currently has an adequate seismic network relative to modern-day networks at Usu Volcano (Japan) or Etna and Stromboli volcanoes (Italy). For a system the size of Three Sisters, for example, a modern-day, cutting-edge seismic network would ideally consist of a minimum of 10 to 12 short-period three-component seismometers (for determining particle motions, reliable S-wave picks, moment tensor inversions, fault-plane solutions, and other important seismic parameters) and 7 to 10 broadband sensors (which, amongst other considerations, enable detection and location of very long period (VLP) and other low-frequency events, moment tensor inversions, and, because of their wide dynamic range, on-scale recording of large-amplitude events). Such a dense, multi component seismic network would give the ability to, for example, detect in near-real-time earthquake migrations over a distance of ~0.5km or less, locate tremor sources, determine the nature of a seismic source (that is, pure shear, implosive, explosive), provide on-scale recordings of very small and very large-amplitude seismic signals, and detect localized changes in seismic stress tensor orientations caused by movement of magma bodies. However, given that programmatic resources are currently limited, installation of such networks at this time is unrealistic. Instead, this report focuses on identifying what additional stations are needed to guarantee that anomalous seismicity associated with volcanic unrest will be detected in a timely manner and, in the case of magnitude = 1 earthquakes, reliably located.

California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington↗

Assessment of Undiscovered Petroleum Resources of the North and East Margins of the Siberian Craton, Russian Federation

Four geologic provinces located along the north and east margins of the Siberian craton were assessed for undiscovered crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids/condensates resources as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Circum-Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal. Using a geology-based methodology, the USGS estimated the mean undiscovered, conventional petroleum resources in these provinces to be approximately 28 billion barrels of oil equivalent, including approximately 8 billion barrels of crude oil, 106 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 3 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.

Fact Sheet↗

Water resources of the Rainy Lake watershed, northeastern Minnesota

The watershed includes 1,481 lakes that are 10 acres (4 square hectometers) or larger (Minnesota Division of Waters, Soils, and Minerals, 1968). The area of these lakes total about 435,000 acres (176,000 hm 2 ) or 15 percent of the watershed. Most of the lakes are smaller than 250 acres (101 hm 2 ) (graph); data pertaining to selected large lakes are given in the table below. More than 60 percent of the lakes larger than 10 acres (4 hm 2 ) are in the BWCA. The primitive character of the BWCA is maintained in accordance with the Wilderness Act of September 3, 1964. Most lakes not in the BWCA were assigned a Public Waters Classification by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, based upon the suitability of the lake for future shoreland development (unpublished data from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources). “Natural environment” is most restrictive and “general development” least restrictive with respect to development standards. About 80 percent of lakes classified in the watershed have been designated “natural environment.”

Minnesota↗

Geology and assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the North Kara Basins and Platforms Province, 2008

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently assessed the potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources of the North Kara Basins and Platforms Province as part of the its Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal. This geologic province is north of western Siberia, Russian Federation, in the North Kara Sea between Novaya Zemlya to the west and Severnaya Zemlya to the east. One assessment unit (AU) was defined, the North Kara Basins and Platforms AU, which coincides with the geologic province. This AU was assessed for undiscovered, technically recoverable resources. The total estimated mean volumes of undiscovered petroleum resources in the province are ~1.8 billion barrels of crude oil, ~15.0 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and ~0.4 billion barrels of natural-gas liquids, all north of the Arctic Circle.

Professional Paper↗

The state of the Colorado River ecosystem in Grand Canyon: A report of the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center 1991-2004

This report is an important milestone in the effort by the Secretary of the Interior to implement the Grand Canyon Protection Act of 1992 (GCPA; title XVIII, secs. 1801-1809, of Public Law 102-575), the most recent authorizing legislation for Federal efforts to protect resources downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. The chapters that follow are intended to provide decision makers and the American public with relevant scientific information about the status and recent trends of the natural, cultural, and recreational resources of those portions of Grand Canyon National Park and Glen Canyon National Recreation Area affected by Glen Canyon Dam operations. Glen Canyon Dam is one of the last major dams that was built on the Colorado River and is located just south of the Arizona-Utah border in the lower reaches of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, approximately 15 mi (24 km) upriver from Grand Canyon National Park (fig. 1). The information presented here is a product of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP), a federally authorized initiative to ensure that the primary mandate of the GCPA is met through advances in information and resource management. The U.S. Geological Survey`s (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) has responsibility for the scientific monitoring and research efforts for the program, including the preparation of reports such as this one.

Arizona↗

Hydrologic Drought Decision Support System (HyDroDSS)

The hydrologic drought decision support system (HyDroDSS) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Rhode Island Water Resources Board (RIWRB) for use in the analysis of hydrologic variables that may indicate the risk for streamflows to be below user-defined flow targets at a designated site of interest, which is defined herein as data-collection site on a stream that may be adversely affected by pumping. Hydrologic drought is defined for this study as a period of lower than normal streamflows caused by precipitation deficits and (or) water withdrawals. The HyDroDSS is designed to provide water managers with risk-based information for balancing water-supply needs and aquatic-habitat protection goals to mitigate potential effects of hydrologic drought. This report describes the theory and methods for retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis, rank correlation analysis, and drought-projection analysis. All three methods are designed to inform decisions made by drought steering committees and decisionmakers on the basis of quantitative risk assessment. All three methods use estimates of unaltered streamflow, which is the measured or modeled flow without major withdrawals or discharges, to approximate a natural low-flow regime. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis can be used by water-resource managers to evaluate relations between withdrawal plans and the potential effects of withdrawal plans on streams at one or more sites of interest in an area. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis indicates the historical risk of being below user-defined flow targets if different pumping plans were implemented for the period of record. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis also indicates the risk for creating hydrologic drought conditions caused by use of a pumping plan. Retrospective streamflow-depletion analysis is done by calculating the net streamflow depletions from withdrawals and discharges and applying these depletions to a simulated record of unaltered streamflow. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the persistence of hydrologic measurements from month to month for the prediction of developing hydrologic drought conditions and quantitatively indicates which hydrologic variables may be used to indicate the onset of hydrologic drought conditions. Rank correlation analysis also indicates the potential use of each variable for estimating the monthly minimum unaltered flow at a site of interest for use in the drought-projection analysis. Rank correlation analysis in the HyDroDSS is done by calculating Spearman’s rho for paired samples and the 95-percent confidence limits of this rho value. Rank correlation analysis can be done by using precipitation, groundwater levels, measured streamflows, and estimated unaltered streamflows. Serial correlation analysis, which indicates relations between current and future values, can be done for a single site. Cross correlation analysis, which indicates relations among current values at one site and current and future values at a second site, also can be done. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS indicates the risk for being in a hydrologic drought condition during the current month and the five following months with and without pumping. Drought-projection analysis also indicates the potential effectiveness of water-conservation methods for mitigating the effect of withdrawals in the coming months on the basis of the amount of depletion caused by different pumping plans and on the risk of unaltered flows being below streamflow targets. Drought-projection analysis in the HyDroDSS is done with Monte Carlo methods by using the position analysis method. In this method the initial value of estimated unaltered streamflows is calculated by correlation to a measured hydrologic variable (monthly precipitation, groundwater levels, or streamflows from an index station identified with the rank correlation analysis). Then a pseudorandom number generator is used to create 251 six-month-long flow traces by using a bootstrap method. Serial correlation of the estimated unaltered monthly minimum streamflows determined from the rank correlation analysis is preserved within each flow trace. The sample of unaltered streamflows indicates the risk of being below flow targets in the coming months under simulated natural conditions (without historic withdrawals). The streamflow-depletion algorithms are then used to estimate risks of flow being below targets if selected pumping plans are used. This report also describes the implementation of the HyDroDSS. The HyDroDSS was developed as a Microsoft Access® database application to facilitate storage, handling, and use of hydrologic datasets with a simple graphical user interface. The program is implemented in the database by using the Visual Basic for Applications® (VBA) programming language. Program source code for the analytical techniques is provided in the HyDroDSS and in electronic text files accompanying this report. Program source code for the graphical user interface and for data-handling code, which is specific to Microsoft Access® and the HyDroDSS, is provided in the database. An installation package with a run-time version of the software is available with this report for potential users who do not have a compatible copy of Microsoft Access®. Administrative rights are needed to install this version of the HyDroDSS. A case study, to demonstrate the use of HyDroDSS and interpretation of results for a site of interest, is detailed for the USGS streamgage on the Hunt River (station 01117000) near East Greenwich in central Rhode Island. The Hunt River streamgage was used because it has a long record of streamflow and is in a well-studied basin with a substantial amount of hydrologic and water-use data including groundwater pumping for municipal water supply.

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