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Background and geologic model for the 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment of undiscovered conventional petroleum resources in the Norphlet Formation, U.S. Gulf Coast

The Upper Jurassic Norphlet Formation is a stratigraphic unit located in the subsurface of the United States Gulf coastal plain and offshore Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico). The Norphlet consists of clastic sediments derived from the southern Appalachian highlands, and was deposited in a continental dryland setting on the margins of the early Gulf of America rift basin. The formation contains a variety of sedimentary facies, including facies representing updip alluvial fans, wadis, red beds, and a widespread erg, or eolian sand sea. The erg facies form the primary reservoirs from which hydrocarbons sourced from the overlying Smackover Formation are produced. Development of the Norphlet began in earnest in the late 1960s, with new discoveries, including large fields at Flomaton, Hatters Pond, and Mobile Bay, continuing through the 2000s–2010s with the discovery of major oil fields in the offshore Desoto Canyon area. Onshore, Norphlet hydrocarbon traps typically are faulted salt anticlines, although many fields also have a stratigraphic trapping component because of the preservation of dune-scale bedforms. Thermal maturity across the Norphlet play varies significantly with depth, resulting in oil production transitioning downdip to natural gas liquids production, then dry gas production; production depths reach to greater than 21,000 feet. A 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment divided the Norphlet into four conventional assessment units defined by the type and frequency of trapping mechanisms, sedimentology, and thermal maturity of each area, with little potential for hydrocarbon development observed west of the Mississippi River. Although petroleum resources in the Norphlet were revised downward, it is probable that significant resources remain to be discovered.

Alabama, Florida, Mississippi↗

Predicting the locations of naturally fishless lakes

1. Fish have been introduced into many previously fishless lakes throughout North America over the past 100+ years. It is difficult to determine the historical distribution of fishless lakes, however, because these introductions have not always been well-documented. 2. Due to its glacial history and low human population density, the state of Maine (U.S.A.) may host the greatest number of naturally fishless lakes in the northeastern United States. However, less than one-quarter of Maine's 6000+ lakes have been surveyed for fish presence, and no accurate assessments of either the historical or current abundance and distribution of fishless lakes exist. 3. We developed methods to assess the abundance and distribution of Maine's naturally fishless lakes (0.6-10.1 ha). We hypothesized that the historical distribution of fishless lakes across a landscape is controlled by geomorphic and geographic conditions. 4. We used ArcGIS to identify landscape-scale geomorphic and geographic factors (e.g. connectivity, surrounding slope) correlated with fish absence in two geomorphic regions of Maine - the western and interior mountains and the eastern lowlands and foothills. By using readily available geographic information systems data our method was not limited to field-visited sites. We estimated the likelihood that a particular lake is fishless with a stepwise logistic regression model developed for each region. 5. The absence of fish from western lakes is related to altitude (+), minimum percent slope in the 500 m buffer (+), maximum percent slope in the 500 m buffer (+) and percent cover of herbaceous-emergent wetland in 1000 m buffer (-). The absence of fish from eastern lakes is related to the lack of a stream within 50 m of the lake. 6. The models predict that a total of 4% (131) of study lakes in the two regions were historically fishless, with the eastern region hosting a greater proportion than the western region. 7. We verified the model predictions with two complementary approaches. First we visited 21 lakes predicted to be fishless and assessed current fish presence with gillnetting. Second, we used paleolimnological techniques based on the abundance of Chaoborus americanus mandibles in the bottom segments of sediment cores. Fifteen of the 21 lakes predicted to be fishless currently contain fish. Paleolimnological evidence, however, suggests that nine of the 15 lakes were historically fishless and thus were subject to undocumented fish introductions. 8. Our approach efficiently predicts the distribution Maine's naturally fishless lakes, and our results indicate that these habitats have declined due to fish introductions. Our method could be applied to other regions with similar geographic and geomorphic constraints on fish distributions as a tool to enhance conservation of a limited resource that provides habitat for unique biological communities. ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Freshwater Biology↗

Web-based data delivery services in support of disaster-relief applications

The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation Systems Data Center responds to emergencies in support of various government agencies for human-induced and natural disasters. This response consists of satellite tasking and acquisitions, satellite image registrations, disaster-extent maps analysis and creation, base image provision and support, Web-based mapping services for product delivery, and predisaster and postdisaster data archiving. The emergency response staff are on call 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and have access to many commercial and government satellite and aerial photography tasking authorities. They have access to value-added data processing and photographic laboratory services for off-hour emergency requests. They work with various Federal agencies for preparedness planning, which includes providing base imagery. These data may include digital elevation models, hydrographic models, base satellite images, vector data layers such as roads, aerial photographs, and other predisaster data. These layers are incorporated into a Web-based browser and data delivery service that is accessible either to the general public or to select customers. As usage declines, the data are moved to a postdisaster nearline archive that is still accessible, but not in real time.

Conference Paper↗

The use of data-mining techniques for developing effective decisionsupport systems: A case study of simulating the effects ofclimate change on coastal salinity intrusion

Natural-resource managers and stakeholders face difficult challenges when managing interactions between natural and societal systems. Potential changes in climate could alter interactions between environmental and societal systems and adversely affect the availability of water resources in many coastal communities. The availability of freshwater in coastal streams can be threatened by saltwater intrusion. Even though the collective interests and computer skills of the community of managers, scientists and other stakeholders are quite varied, there is an overarching need for equal access by all to the scientific knowledge needed to make the best possible decisions. This paper describes a decision support system, PRISM-2, developed to evaluate salinity intrusion due to potential climate change along the South Carolina coast in southeastern USA. The decision support system is disseminated as a spreadsheet application and integrates the output of global circulation models, watershed models and salinity intrusion models with real-time databases for simulation, graphical user interfaces, and streaming displays of results. The results from PRISM-2 showed that a 31-cm and 62-cm increase in sea level reduced the daily availability of freshwater supply to a coastal municipal intake by 4% and 12% of the time, respectively. Future climate change projections by a global circulation model showed a seasonal change in salinity intrusion events from the summer to the fall for the majority of events.

South Carolina↗

Vertical gradients in water chemistry and age in the Northern High Plains Aquifer, Nebraska, 2003

The northern High Plains aquifer is the primary source of water used for domestic, industrial, and irrigation purposes in parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Despite the aquifer’s importance to the regional economy, fundamental ground-water characteristics, such as vertical gradients in water chemistry and age, remain poorly defined. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment Program, water samples from nested, short-screen monitoring wells installed in the northern High Plains aquifer were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, trace elements, dissolved organic carbon, pesticides, stable and radioactive isotopes, dissolved gases, and other parameters to evaluate vertical gradients in water chemistry and age in the aquifer. Chemical data and tritium and radiocarbon ages show that water in the aquifer was chemically and temporally stratified in the study area, with a relatively thin zone of recently recharged water (less than 50 years) near the water table overlying a thicker zone of older water (1,800 to 15,600 radiocarbon years). In areas where irrigated agriculture was an important land use, the recently recharged ground water was characterized by elevated concentrations of major ions and nitrate and the detection of pesticide compounds. Below the zone of agricultural influence, major-ion concentrations exhibited small increases with depth and distance along flow paths because of rock/water interactions. The concentration increases were accounted for primarily by dissolved calcium, sodium, bicarbonate, sulfate, and silica. In general, the chemistry of ground water throughout the aquifer was of high quality. None of the approximately 90 chemical constituents analyzed in each sample exceeded primary drinking-water standards. Mass-balance models indicate that changes in groundwater chemistry along flow paths in the aquifer can be accounted for by small amounts of feldspar and calcite dissolution; goethite and clay-mineral precipitation; organic-carbon and pyrite oxidation; oxygen reduction and denitrification; and cation exchange. Mixing with surface water affected the chemistry of ground water in alluvial sediments of the Platte River Valley. Radiocarbon ages in the aquifer, adjusted for carbon mass transfers, ranged from 1,800 to 15,600 14C years before present. These results have important implications with respect to development of ground-water resources in the Sand Hills. Most of the water in the aquifer predates modern anthropogenic activity so excessive removal of water by pumping is not likely to be replenished by natural recharge in a meaningful timeframe. Vertical gradients in ground-water age were used to estimate long-term average recharge rates in the aquifer. In most areas, the recharge rates ranged from 0.02 to 0.05 foot per year. The recharge rate was 0.2 foot per year in one part of the aquifer characterized by large downward hydraulic gradients. Nitrite plus nitrate concentrations at the water table were 0.13 to 3.13 milligrams per liter as nitrogen, and concentrations substantially decreased with depth in the aquifer. Dissolved-gas and nitrogen-isotope data indicate that denitrification in the aquifer removed 0 to 97 percent (average = 50 percent) of the nitrate originally present in recharge. The average amount of nitrate removed by denitrification in the aquifer north of the Platte River (Sand Hills) was substantially greater than the amount removed south of the river (66 as opposed to 0 percent), and the extent of nitrate removal appears to be related to the presence of thick deposits of sediment on top of the Ogallala Group in the Sand Hills that contained electron donors, such as organic carbon and pyrite, to support denitrification. Apparent rates of dissolved-oxygen reduction and denitrification were estimated on the basis of decreases in dissolved-oxygen concentrations and increases in concentrations of excess nitrogen gas and ground-water ages along flow paths from the water table to deeper wells. Median rates of dissolved-oxygen reduction and denitrification south of the Platte River were at least 10 times smaller than the median rates north of the river in the Sand Hills. The relatively large denitrification rates in the Sand Hills indicate that the aquifer in that area may have a greater capacity to attenuate nitrate contamination than the aquifer south of the river, depending on rates of ground-water movement in the two areas. Small denitrification rates south of the river indicate that nitrate contamination in that part of the aquifer would likely persist for a longer period of time.

Nebraska↗

Integrating urban planning and water management through green infrastructure in the United States-Mexico border

Creating sustainable, resilient, and livable cities calls for integrative approaches and collaborative practices across temporal and spatial scales. However, practicability is challenged by institutional, social, and technical complexities and the need to build collective understanding of integrated approaches. Rapid urbanization along the United States-Mexico border, fueled by industrialization, trade, and migration, has resulted in cities confronted with recurrent flooding risk, extended drought, water pollution, habitat destruction and systemic vulnerabilities. The international border, which separates natural and built ecosystems, is both a challenge and an opportunity, making a unique social and institutional setting ideal for testing the integration of urban planning and water management. Our research focuses on fusing multi-functional and multi-scalar green infrastructure to restore ecosystem services through a strategic binational planning process. This paper describes this planning process, including the development and application of both a land suitability analysis and a hydrological model to optimally site green infrastructure in the Nogales, Arizona, United States—Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, cross border region. We draw lessons from this process and stakeholder feedback focused on the potential for urban green infrastructure, to allow for adaptation and even transformation in the face of current and future challenges such as limited resources, underdeveloped governance, bordering, and climate change. In sum, a cross border network of green infrastructure can provide a backbone to connect this transboundary watershed while providing both hydrological and social benefits.

Frontiers in Water↗

Monitoring in the context of structured decision-making and adaptive management

In a natural resource management setting, monitoring is a crucial component of an informed process for making decisions, and monitoring design should be driven by the decision context and associated uncertainties. Monitoring itself can play >3 roles. First, it is important for state-dependent decision-making, as when managers need to know the system state before deciding on the appropriate course of action during the ensuing management cycle. Second, monitoring is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions relative to objectives. Third, in an adaptive management setting, monitoring provides the feedback loop for learning about the system; learning is sought not for its own sake but primarily to better achieve management objectives. In this case, monitoring should be designed to reduce the critical uncertainties in models of the managed system. The United States Geological Survey and United States Fish and Wildlife Service are conducting a large-scale management experiment on 23 National Wildlife Refuges across the Northeast and Midwest Regions. The primary management objective is to provide habitat for migratory waterbirds, particularly during migration, using water-level manipulations in managed wetlands. Key uncertainties are related to the potential trade-offs created by management for a specific waterbird guild (e.g., migratory shorebirds) and the response of waterbirds, plant communities, and invertebrates to specific experimental hydroperiods. We reviewed the monitoring program associated with this study, and the ways that specific observations fill >1 of the roles identified above. We used observations from our monitoring to improve state-dependent decisions to control undesired plants, to evaluate management performance relative to shallow-water habitat objectives, and to evaluate potential trade-offs between waterfowl and shorebird habitat management. With limited staff and budgets, management agencies need efficient monitoring programs that are used for decision-making, not comprehensive studies that elucidate all manner of ecological relationships.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Natural and human-induced variability in barrier-island response to sea level rise

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

New Jersey↗

Delineation of marsh types from Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, to Perdido Bay, Alabama, in 2010

Coastal zone managers and researchers often require detailed information regarding emergent marsh vegetation types (that is, fresh, intermediate, brackish, and saline) for modeling habitat capacities and needs of marsh dependent taxa (such as waterfowl and alligator). Detailed information on the extent and distribution of emergent marsh vegetation types throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico coast has been historically unavailable. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the Gulf Coast Joint Venture, the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Ducks Unlimited, Inc., and the Texas A&M University-Kingsville, produced a classification of emergent marsh vegetation types from Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, to Perdido Bay, Alabama. This study incorporates about 9,800 ground reference locations collected via helicopter surveys in coastal wetland areas. Decision-tree analyses were used to classify emergent marsh vegetation types by using ground reference data from helicopter vegetation surveys and independent variables such as multitemporal satellite-based multispectral imagery from 2009 to 2011, bare-earth digital elevation models based on airborne light detection and ranging (lidar), alternative contemporary land cover classifications, and other spatially explicit variables. Image objects were created from 2010 National Agriculture Imagery Program color-infrared aerial photography. The final classification is a 10-meter raster dataset that was produced by using a majority filter to classify image objects according to the marsh vegetation type covering the majority of each image object. The classification is dated 2010 because the year is both the midpoint of the classified multitemporal satellite-based imagery (2009–11) and the date of the high-resolution airborne imagery that was used to develop image objects. The seamless classification produced through this work can be used to help develop and refine conservation efforts for priority natural resources.

Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

Porphyry copper assessment of East and Southeast Asia: Philippines, Taiwan (Republic of China), Republic of Korea (South Korea), and Japan

The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with member countries of the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) on an assessment of the porphyry copper resources of East and Southeast Asia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The assessment covers the Philippines in Southeast Asia, and the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Taiwan (Province of China), and Japan in East Asia. The Philippines host world class porphyry copper deposits, such as the Tampakan and Atlas deposits. No porphyry copper deposits have been discovered in the Republic of Korea (South Korea), Taiwan (Province of China), or Japan. Thirteen geographic areas were delineated as tracts that are permissive for porphyry copper deposits in the assessed area. Individual tracts range from about 3,000 to 100,000 square kilometers in area. Permissive tracts are delineated on the basis of mapped distributions of igneous rocks of specific age ranges that define subduction-related magmatic arcs or magmatic belts that might contain porphyry copper deposits. Most of these magmatic arcs are subduction related, although some porphyry deposits and prospects are present in back-arc or poorly understood tectonic settings. Maps at various scales were used in the compilation; however, the final tract boundaries are intended for use at a scale of 1:1,000,000. Numbers of undiscovered deposits were estimated at different levels of confidence for 10 permissive tracts in the Philippines including one area that extends to eastern Taiwan (Republic of China); permissive tracts in South Korea and Japan are discussed qualitatively. Estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits were combined with grade and tonnage models using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate amounts of undiscovered resources. Grades and tonnages of known porphyry copper deposits in the study area were compared with global grade and tonnage models to determine the appropriate model for simulation of undiscovered resources. Most of the known deposits are best described as copper-gold subtypes of porphyry copper deposits. For some permissive tracts, a general porphyry copper-gold-molybdenum model was used. Thirty-eight porphyry copper deposits are known in the Philippines; the mean number of undiscovered deposits was estimated to be 28. Mean (arithmetic) resources that could be associated with the undiscovered deposits are 90 million metric tons of copper and 5,800 metric tons of gold, as well as byproduct molybdenum and silver. Additional resources that could be discovered in extensions to known deposits were not evaluated. Assessment results, presented in tables and graphs, indicate expected amounts of total contained metal and mineralized rock in undiscovered deposits at different quantile levels, as well as the arithmetic mean for each tract. The Philippines have a long history of porphyry exploration cycles and mine development, interrupted at times by political and social unrest, environmental concerns, and natural disasters. Changes in mining laws within the region and the recent high price of gold on the world market have prompted renewed interest in porphyry copper deposits in the region. South Korea and Japan have been thoroughly explored for many types of mineral deposits. Available data suggest that the permissive rocks in South Korea typically are too deeply eroded to preserve porphyry copper deposits. Porphyry copper systems may be present in Japan, but are likely to lie at depths greater than the 1 kilometer from the surface protocol adopted for this study. Descriptions of the geologic basis for delineating each tract, the data used, the geologic criteria and rationale for the assessment, and results of the assessment are included in appendixes along with the description of a geographic information system (GIS) that includes tract boundaries, known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects, and assessment results.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Aquifer systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada, Utah, and adjacent states: A study plan

The Great Basin Regional Aquifer Study includes about 140,000 square miles in parts of Nevada, Utah, California, Idaho, Oregon, and Arizona. Within that area, 240 hydrographic areas occupy structural depressions formed primarily by basin-and-range faulting. The principal aquifers are in basin- fill deposits; however, permeable carbonate rocks underlie valleys in much of eastern Nevada and western Utah and are significant regional aquifers. Anticipated future water needs require a better understanding of the resource so that wise management will be possible. In October 1980, the U.S Geological Survey started a 4-year study to (1) describe the ground-water systems as they existed under natural conditions and as they exist today, (2) analyze the changes that have led to the systems' present condition, (3) tie the results of this and previous studies together in a regional analysis, and (4) provide means by which effects of future ground-water development can be estimated. A plan of work is presented that describes the general approach to be taken in this study. It defines (1) the major task necessary to meet objectives and (2) constraints on the scope of work. The approach has been strongly influenced by the diverse nature of ground-water flow systems and the large number of basins. A detailed appraisal of 240 individual areas would require more resources than are available. Consequently, the general approach is to study selected "typical" areas and key hydrologic processes. Effort during the first 3 years will be directed toward describing the regional hydrology, conducting detailed studies of "type" areas, and studying selected hydrologic processes. Effort during the final year will be directed toward developing a regional analyses of results. Special studies that will address hydrologic processes, key components of the ground-water system, and improved use of technology include evaluations of regional geochemistry, regional hydrogeology, recharge, ground-water discharge, and the use of remote sensing. Areas selected for study using ground-water flow models include the regional carbonate-rock province in eastern Nevada and western Utah, six valleys Las Vegas, Carson, Paradise, Dixie, Smith Creek, and Stagecoach in Nevada, plus Jordan Valley, the Milford area, and Tule Valley in Utah.

Nevada, Utah↗

Hydrogeology and Simulated Effects of Ground-Water Withdrawals in the Big River Area, Rhode Island

The Rhode Island Water Resources Board is considering expanded use of ground-water resources from the Big River area because increasing water demands in Rhode Island may exceed the capacity of current sources. This report describes the hydrology of the area and numerical simulation models that were used to examine effects of ground-water withdrawals during 1964?98 and to describe potential effects of different withdrawal scenarios in the area. The Big River study area covers 35.7 square miles (mi2) and includes three primary surface-water drainage basins?the Mishnock River Basin above Route 3, the Big River Basin, and the Carr River Basin, which is a tributary to the Big River. The principal aquifer (referred to as the surficial aquifer) in the study area, which is defined as the area of stratified deposits with a saturated thickness estimated to be 10 feet or greater, covers an area of 10.9 mi2. On average, an estimated 75 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) of water flows through the study area and about 70 ft3/s flows out of the area as streamflow in either the Big River (about 63 ft3/s) or the Mishnock River (about 7 ft3/s). Numerical simulation models are used to describe the hydrology of the area under simulated predevelopment conditions, conditions during 1964?98, and conditions that might occur in 14 hypothetical ground-water withdrawal scenarios with total ground-water withdrawal rates in the area that range from 2 to 11 million gallons per day. Streamflow depletion caused by these hypothetical ground-water withdrawals is calculated by comparison with simulated flows for the predevelopment conditions, which are identical to simulated conditions during the 1964?98 period but without withdrawals at public-supply wells and wastewater recharge. Interpretation of numerical simulation results indicates that the three basins in the study area are in fact a single ground-water resource. For example, the Carr River Basin above Capwell Mill Pond is naturally losing water to the Mishnock River Basin. Withdrawals in the Carr River Basin can deplete streamflows in the Mishnock River Basin. Withdrawals in the Mishnock River Basin deplete streamflows in the Big River Basin and can intercept water flowing to the Flat River Reservoir North of Hill Farm Road in Coventry, Rhode Island. Withdrawals in the Big River Basin can deplete streamflows in the western unnamed tributary to the Carr River, but do not deplete streamflows in the Mishnock River Basin or in the Carr River upstream of Capwell Mill Pond. Because withdrawals deplete streamflows in the study area, the total amount of ground water that may be withdrawn for public supply depends on the minimum allowable streamflow criterion that is applied for each basin.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Additional and revised thermochemical data and computer code for WATEQ2: a computerized chemical model for trace and major element speciation and mineral equilibria of natural waters

A computerized chemical model, WATEQ2, has resulted from extensive additions to and revision of the WATEQ model of Truesdell and Jones (Truesdell, A. H., and Jones, B. F., 1974, WATEQ, a computer program for calculating chemical equilibria of natural waters: J. Res. U. S. Geol, Survey, v. 2, p. 233-274). The model building effort has necessitated searching the literature and selecting thermochemical data pertinent to the reactions added to the model. This supplementary report manes available the details of the reactions added to the model together with the selected thermochemical data and their sources. Also listed are details of program operation and a brief description of the output of the model. Appendices-contain a glossary of identifiers used in the PL/1 computer code, the complete PL/1 listing, and sample output from three water analyses used as test cases.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Preliminary estimates of residence times and apparent ages of ground water in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and water-quality data from a survey of springs

Knowledge of the residence times of the ground-water systems in Chesapeake Bay watershed helps resource managers anticipate potential delays between implementation of land-management practices and any improvements in river and estuary water quality. This report presents preliminary estimates of ground-water residence times and apparent ages of water in the shallow aquifers of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. A simple reservoir model, published data, and analyses of spring water were used to estimate residence times and apparent ages of ground-water discharge. Ranges of aquifer hydraulic characteristics throughout the Bay watershed were derived from published literature and were used to estimate ground-water residence times on the basis of a simple reservoir model. Simple combinations of rock type and physiographic province were used to delineate hydrogeomorphic regions (HGMR's) for the study area. The HGMR's are used to facilitate organization and display of the data and analyses. Illustrations depicting the relation of aquifer characteristics and associated residence times as a continuum for each HGMR were developed. In this way, the natural variation of aquifer characteristics can be seen graphically by use of data from selected representative studies. Water samples collected in September and November 1996, from 46 springs throughout the watershed were analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's) to estimate the apparent age of ground water. For comparison purposes, apparent ages of water from springs were calculated assuming piston flow. Additional data are given to estimate apparent ages assuming an exponential distribution of ages in spring discharge. Additionally, results from previous studies of CFC-dating of ground water from other springs and wells in the watershed were compiled. The CFC data, and the data on major ions, nutrients, and nitrogen isotopes in the water collected from the 46 springs are included in this report. The apparent ages of water discharging from 30 of the 46 springs sampled were less than 20 years, including 5 that were "modern" (0-4 years). Four samples had apparent ages of 22 to 34 years, and two others from thermal springs were 40 years or greater. The remaining ten samples were contaminated with local sources of CFC and could not be dated. Nitrate concentrations and nitrate delta 15 nitrogen (d 15 N) values in water from many springs are similar to those in shallow ground water beneath fertilized fields, and some values are high enough to indicate a probable source from animal-waste components. The nitrogen data reported here highlight the significance of the springs sampled during this study as pathways for nutrient transport in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Ground-water samples were collected from springs during an unusually high flow period and thus may not be representative of low base-flow conditions. Residence times estimated from plausible ranges of aquifer properties and results of previous age-dating analyses generally corroborate the apparent-age analysis made in the current study and suggests that some residence times could be much longer. The shortest residence times tend to be in the Blue Ridge and northern carbonate areas; however, the data are preliminary and not appropriate for statistical tests of significance or variance. Because the age distributions in the aquifer discharging to the springs are not known, and because the apparent ages of water from the springs are based on various combinations of CFC criteria, the apparent ages and calculated residence times are compared for illustrative purposes but are considered preliminary until further work is accomplished.

Maryland, Virginia↗

Science for avian conservation: Priorities for the new millennium

Over the past decade, bird conservation activities have become the preeminent natural resource conservation effort in North America. Maturation of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP), establishment of Partners in Flight (PIF), and creation of comprehensive colonial waterbird and shorebird conservation plans have stimulated unprecedented interest in, and funding for, bird conservation in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and other countries in the western hemisphere. Key to that success in the United States has been active collaboration among federal, state and local governments, conservation organizations, academia, and industry. The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), which has primary statutory responsibility for migratory bird conservation and management, has been a key partner. Despite the great strides that have been made in bird conservation science, historical approaches to research and monitoring have often failed to provide sufficient information and understanding to effectively manage bird populations at large spatial scales. That shortcoming, and the lack of an integrated strategy and comprehensive set of research priorities, is more evident in light of the goals established by the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI). The NABCI is a trinational, coalition-driven effort to provide an organizational umbrella for existing conservation initiatives. The expanded focus of NABCI and individual bird conservation initiatives is to work together in an integrated, holistic fashion to keep common birds common and to increase populations of declining, threatened, and endangered species. To assist bird conservation initiatives in defining goals and developing new approaches to effective research, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the research agency of DOI, convened a workshop, “Science for Avian Conservation: Understanding, Modeling, and Applying Ecological Relationships,” on 31 October–2 November 2000, which brought together 51 scientists from USGS, as well as scientists and conservationists from other agencies and organizations actively participating in NABCI. As the lead federal agency involved in bird conservation research, USGS has a clear legislative mandate to provide scientific information upon which future management plans and actions will be built. This article summarizes key issues and recommendations that arose from that workshop. The principal goal of the workshop was to guide USGS in defining its role, assessing capabilities, and directing future agency planning in support of bird conservation. A major component was to identify key areas of research needed in this new era of bird conservation science. Although tailored to the mission of USGS, workshop recommendations visualize a bold direction for future avian conservation science in which research and monitoring work in tandem with management to increase our understanding of avian populations and the processes that affect them. The USGS is a science agency whose role is to provide objective scientific information to management agencies and therefore is not directly involved in high-level resource policy-making or on-the-ground management decision making. Nevertheless, it is important to note that effective policy decision making must integrate the best available science with political and economic realities to achieve successful avian conservation—an important subject acknowledged in the workshop, but largely beyond its scope of discussion. Williams (2003) questions regarding how scientific information can be effectively communicated to decision makers and incorporated into natural resource policy. Without an aggressive vision and the willingness of researchers, managers, and policy makers to implement it, conservation of North American birds is likely to proceed without the full benefit of scientific investigation. These recommendations represent the principal conclusions drawn by workshop participants and do not necessarily reflect official USGS policy.

The Auk↗

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Conservation Biology↗

Context-dependent planktivory: interacting effects of turbidity and predation risk on adaptive foraging

By shaping species interactions, adaptive phenotypic plasticity can profoundly influence ecosystems. Predicting such outcomes has proven difficult, however, owing in part to the dependence of plasticity on the environmental context. Of particular relevance are environmental factors that affect sensory performance in organisms in ways that alter the tradeoffs associated with adaptive phenotypic responses. We explored the influence of turbidity, which simultaneously and differentially affects the sensory performance of consumers at multiple trophic levels, on the indirect effect of a top predator (piscivorous fish) on a basal prey resource (zooplankton) that is mediated through changes in the plastic foraging behavior of an intermediate consumer (zooplanktivorous fish). We first generated theoretical predictions of the adaptive foraging response of a zooplanktivore across wide gradients of turbidity and predation risk by a piscivore. Our model predicted that predation risk can change the negative relationship between intermediate consumer foraging and turbidity into a humped-shaped (unimodal) one in which foraging is low in both clear and highly turbid conditions due to foraging-related risk and visual constraints, respectively. Consequently, the positive trait-mediated indirect effect (TMIE) of the top predator on the basal resource is predicted to peak at low turbidity and decline thereafter until it reaches an asymptote of zero at intermediate turbidity levels (when foraging equals that which is predicted when the top predator is absent). We used field observations and a laboratory experiment to test our model predictions. In support, we found humped-shaped relationships between planktivory and turbidity for several zooplanktivorous fishes from diverse freshwater ecosystems with predation risk. Further, our experiment demonstrated that predation risk reduced zooplanktivory by yellow perch (Perca flavescens) at a low turbidity, but had no effect on consumption at an intermediate turbidity. Together, our theoretical and empirical findings show how the environmental context can govern the strength of TMIEs by influencing consumer sensory performance and how these effects can become realized in nature over wide environmental gradients. Additionally, our hump-shaped foraging curve represents an important departure from the conventional view of turbidity's effect on planktivorous fishes, thus potentially requiring a reconceptualization of turbidity's impact on aquatic food-web interactions.

Ecosphere↗

Thermal maturity patterns (CAI and %Ro) in the Ordovician and Devonian rocks of the Appalachian basin in West Virginia

The objective of this study is to enhance existing thermal maturity maps in West Virginia by establishing: 1) new subsurface CAI data points for the Ordovician and Devonian and 2) new %Ro and Rock Eval subsurface data points for Middle and Upper Devonian black shale units. Thermal maturity values for the Ordovician and Devonian strata are of major interest because they contain the source rocks for most of the oil and natural gas resources in the basin. Thermal maturity patterns of the Middle Ordovician Trenton Limestone are evaluated here because they closely approximate those of the overlying Ordovician Utica Shale that is believed to be the source rock for the regional oil and gas accumulation in Lower Silurian sandstones (Ryder and others, 1998) and for natural gas fields in fractured dolomite reservoirs of the Ordovician Black River-Trenton Limestones. Improved CAI-based thermal maturity maps of the Ordovician are important to identify areas of optimum gas generation from the Utica Shale and to provide constraints for interpreting the origin of oil and gas in the Lower Silurian regional accumulation and Ordovician Black River-Trenton fields. Thermal maturity maps of the Devonian will better constrain burial history-petroleum generation models of the Utica Shale, as well as place limitations on the origin of regional oil and gas accumulations in Upper Devonian sandstone and Middle to Upper Devonian black shale.

Open-File Report↗