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1,662 records · Page 60Linked to original sources

Utility of an instantaneous salt dilution method for measuring streamflow in headwater streams

Streamflow records are biased toward large streams and rivers, yet small headwater streams are often the focus of ecological research in response to climate change. Conventional flow measurement instruments such as acoustic Doppler velocimeters (ADVs) do not perform well during low-flow conditions in small streams, truncating the development of rating curves during critical baseflow conditions dominated by groundwater inflow. We revisited an instantaneous solute tracer injection method as an alternative to ADVs based on paired measurements to compare their precision, efficiency, and feasibility within headwater streams across a range of flow conditions. We show that the precision of discharge measurements using salt dilution by slug injection and ADV methods were comparable overall, but salt dilution was more precise during the lowest flows and required less time to implement. Often, headwater streams were at or below the depth threshold where ADV measurements could even be attempted and transects were complicated by coarse bed material and cobbles. We discuss the methodological benefits and limitations of salt dilution by slug injection and conclude that the method could facilitate a proliferation of streamflow observation across headwater stream networks that are highly undersampled compared to larger streams.

Virginia

A comprehensive fault system inversion approach: Methods and application to NSHM23

We present updated inversion‐based fault‐system solutions for the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23), standardizing earthquake rate model calculations on crustal faults across the western United States. We build upon the inversion methodology used in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) to solve for time‐independent rates of earthquakes in an interconnected fault system. The updated model explicitly maps out a wide range of fault recurrence and segmentation behavior (epistemic uncertainty), more completely exploring the solution space of viable models beyond those of UCERF3. We also improve the simulated annealing implementation, greatly increasing computational efficiency (and thus inversion convergence), and introduce an adaptive constraint weight calculation algorithm that helps to mediate between competing constraints. Hazard calculations show that ingredient changes (especially fault and deformation models) are the primary driver of hazard changes between NSHM23 and UCERF3. Updates to the inversion methodology are also consequential near faults in which the slip rate in UCERF3 was poorly fit or was satisfied primarily using large multifault ruptures that are now restricted by explicit b ‐value and segmentation constraints.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Airborne radiometric data map alteration of porphyry copper systems in the Elkhorn district, MT

The Elkhorn district in southwestern Montana is known for past production of high-grade base and precious metals from skarn and carbonate replacement deposits. The district also hosts a porphyry Cu-Mo deposit. A radiometric survey flown over the district and surrounds provides maps of surficial concentrations of potassium, thorium, and uranium. Handheld gamma ray spectrometer measurements on altered and unaltered rocks in the district and surrounding region provide a means to ground truth the airborne data. We demonstrate that the airborne and ground-based measurements show similar map patterns. We calculate ratios of the radioelement concentrations and present a potassium enhancement map that combines potassium and ratios of potassium to thorium and uranium. The results highlight the rocks previously mapped as having K-feldspar-biotite and quartz-sericite alteration assemblages in the Elkhorn district and map additional hydrothermal systems in the region, including known alteration in the Radersburg district. The data enhancement techniques can be used as a screening tool for mapping additional porphyry copper systems.

Montana

Greater sage-grouse habitat of Nevada and northeastern California—Integrating space use, habitat selection, and survival indices to guide areas for habitat management

Executive Summary Greater sage-grouse populations ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are threatened by a suite of disturbances and anthropogenic factors that have contributed to a net loss of sagebrush-dominant shrub cover in recent decades. Declines in sage-grouse populations are largely linked to habitat loss across their range. A key component of conservation and land use planning efforts for sage-grouse involves the continued monitoring and modeling of habitat requirements and suitability across its range. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is addressing the management of sage-grouse habitats on BLM-authorized public lands throughout the western United States through a land use planning amendment and associated environmental impact statement (86 FR 66331). More than 25 percent of the range-wide distribution of sage-grouse is within Nevada and northeastern California, and information on sage-grouse distribution and habitat requirements is important to guide appropriate management decisions. Therefore, the BLM has identified the need for updated spatially explicit information on sage-grouse habitat in Nevada and northeastern California to guide the land use planning amendment and associated management decisions. To address this need, researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey, in close cooperation with multiple State and Federal resource agency partners, including BLM, Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), sought to map sage-grouse distribution and produce example habitat designations in these states. Herein, we report results of our primary study objective, which was to map sage-grouse habitat and create example habitat management areas, based on more than a decade of location and survival data collected from marked sage-grouse across the study region coupled with lek count survey data managed by the NDOW and the CDFW. We expanded on previously developed methodology to incorporate information on habitat selection and survival during reproductive life stages and specific seasons with updated sage-grouse location and known fate datasets, while also including brood-rearing areas that are understood to be threatened and important for population persistence. We combined predictive habitat map surfaces for each life stage and season with updated information on current occupancy patterns to classify habitat based on its suitability and probability of occupancy. We carried out additional steps to delineate specific example habitat management areas, specifically (1) incorporated corridors connecting key nesting and brood-rearing habitat, (2) corrected outputs for pre-wildfire habitat conditions within areas burned in the last 16 years, and (3) masked out areas of anthropogenic development. Our methodological example of deriving habitat management areas was intended to help inform decisions by BLM and other land managers regarding conservation and management of sage-grouse. Associated data products in the form of habitat maps provide updated, detailed, and comprehensive information about the status of habitats and can be useful to partner agencies in their efforts to designate and rank habitats for this species of high conservation concern in Nevada and California, with full recognition that on-the-ground field data and local sources of information and expertise should be used in conjunction with inferences from these models.

California, Idaho, Nevada

Multi-objective optimization of a hydro-economic model in an over-allocated agricultural basin

Groundwater depletion for agricultural irrigation poses significant environmental and economic challenges. This study introduces a proof-of-concept that combines hydro-economic modeling, scenario-based modeling, and multi-objective optimization to manage pumping curtailment in an over-allocated basin in the western United States. Three optimization scenarios were evaluated, each offering different degrees of management flexibility. Results reveal that scenarios with finer spatial resolution achieved greater environmental benefits per unit profit loss. Additionally, strategies allowing fractional reductions in curtailed wells–rather than complete shutdowns based on water rights seniority–substantially improved efficiency, highlighting the value of increased decision-making flexibility. Although scenario testing can aid stakeholder engagement and strategy exploration, multi-objective optimization provides a systematic framework to quantify tradeoffs between competing objectives. This combined approach demonstrates promise for building consensus and supporting the design of sustainable water management strategies that balance agricultural livelihoods with ecosystem preservation.

Oregon

Fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing of hydrologic processes—Diverse deployments and new applications by the U.S. Geological Survey

Fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing instruments harness the temperature-dependent properties of glass to measure temperature continuously along optical fibers by using precise pulses of laser light. In the mid-2000s, this technology was refined for environmental monitoring purposes such as snowpack-air exchange, groundwater/surface-water exchange, and lake-water stratification. Fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing has revealed unprecedented details about preferential flow processes; however, the method is labor intensive and requires specific training, resulting in limited use by the broader water community. With the ongoing national implementation of the U.S. Geological Survey Next Generation Water Observing System, there has been renewed interest in harnessing the unique spatiotemporal monitoring capabilities of fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing. This fact sheet briefly describes this technology, highlights uses by the U.S. Geological Survey, and discusses current applications and future opportunities.

Fact Sheet

Testing rate‐and‐state predictions of aftershock decay with distance

We analyze aftershocks of the 2019 M 7.1 Ridgecrest mainshock and isolated M 5–6 mainshocks in southern California to test predictions made by the rate‐and‐state friction model of Dieterich (1994) . Rate‐and‐state friction predicts that the seismicity rate after a stress step follows Omori decay, where the Omori c ‐value, which is the saturation in aftershock rate observed at small times, is larger for smaller stress steps. Put in the context of an aftershock sequence, this predicts that the Omori c ‐value will be systematically larger at greater distances from the mainshock. To our knowledge, this predicted effect has not been observed. In part this may be because the Omori c ‐value is difficult to measure because it often reflects short‐term catalog incompleteness rather than a true saturation in aftershock rate. We explore the dependence of the Omori c ‐value on the distance to the mainshock by applying the “ a ‐positive” method ( van der Elst and Page, 2023 ). This method is insensitive to short‐term aftershock incompleteness and allows resolution of the true aftershock rate deep into the mainshock coda. For aftershocks of the Ridgecrest mainshock and stacked M 5–6 mainshocks, we observe systematic differences in early aftershock rates, relative to mainshock distance, consistent with the predictions of rate‐and‐state friction. Furthermore, for the larger Ridgecrest dataset, we observe that aftershocks nearer to the mainshock start earlier, and we resolve a flattening of the Omori curve consistent with a larger Omori c ‐value for the farthest aftershocks, as predicted by Dieterich (1994) .

Seismological Research Letters

Critical mineral inventory of select IOA-IOCG deposits, southwestern USA

Critical minerals are necessary for modern technology and strategic purposes. Their increasing importance requires finding new and nontraditional resources. Samples of ore, altered, and unaltered host rock were collected from 26 iron mines and prospects in California, Nevada, and Utah to assess the potential of these deposits to host economic quantities of different critical minerals. Geochemical analyses were conducted by 61 element ICP-OES-MS sodium peroxide fusion and major elements determined by WDXRF. These deposits concentrated many critical minerals beyond what is found in average upper crustal abundances, such as Sb, As, Bi, Co, Ga, Mg, Mn, Ni, Nb, Pd, REE, Sc, Te, Sn, Ti, W, V, and Zn. However, most of these are not concentrated enough in the ore to be considered as economic resources. Those critical minerals that are enriched enough in some of these deposits to possibly be considered as by-product commodities are Ni, REE, V, and potentially Co and Ga. These enrichments were not uniform, with REE more likely to be enriched in IOA deposits, whereas Co, Ga, Ni, and V could be found enriched in either IOA or IOCG deposits.

California, Nevada, Utah

A case study of maximum depositional ages from terrestrial sandstones near the Cretaceous—Paleogene transition, western Williston Basin, USA

We present a new Bayesian method for deriving maximum depositional ages from detrital K-feldspar using total-fusion 40 Ar/ 39 Ar data. Individual analyses weighted by K/Ca ratio, age uncertainty, and percent radiogenic argon prioritize a result to come from accurately measured volcanic sources. Results from this method applied to sandstones from the Hell Creek region of northeastern Montana show that detrital K-feldspar maximum depositional ages align closely with detrital U-Pb zircon ages as well as tephra based chronostratigraphic constraints from both 40 Ar/ 39 Ar and U-Pb data. An age model informed by maximum depositional ages and available tephra data provides an estimate of 1.74 ± 1.04 Ma for the duration of deposition for the Hell Creek Formation. Combined age model and maximum depositional age data suggest ≤ 1.84 Ma of missing time is represented by the Hell Creek and Fox Hills formational disconformity, coinciding with the final regression of the Western Interior seaway.

Montana

Geophysical characterization of an alkaline‑carbonatite complex using gravity and magnetic methods at Magnet Cove, Arkansas, USA

The Magnet Cove alkaline‑carbonatite complex (MCC), located in the Ouachita Mountains of south-central Arkansas in the United States, hosts an extensive variety of rare rock types and critical mineral resources with physical properties (density and magnetization) that contrast significantly with the sedimentary rocks into which they have intruded. Newly acquired ground-based gravity and magnetic data were used to develop two-dimensional and three-dimensional geophysical models of the Cretaceous-aged Magnet Cove intrusive complex. The models reveal that the MCC: (1) widens out at middle crustal depths to as much 22 km across, and may reach a depth of 20 km; (2) has a total volume (exposed and subsurface) that may be over 800 km 3 ; (3) is likely connected at depth to other intrusions in the Arkansas alkaline province; and (4) has a geometry that is aligned with pre-existing structures such as the Reelfoot rift and the Ouachita orogenic belt, some of which were likely structurally controlled by the Precambrian crystalline basement and the continent-ocean transition zone buried beneath the Ouachita orogen. For the first time, the magnetic models of the MCC account for the presence of strong remanent magnetization. This results in a geophysical workflow necessary to accurately interpret magnetic anomalies over the much larger Arkansas alkaline province, its geologic and structural framework, and critical mineral potential.

Arkansas

The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought

Quantitative understanding is lacking on how the depth of active groundwater circulation in bedrock affects mountain streamflow response to a multi‐year drought. We use an integrated hydrological model to explore the sensitivity of a variety of streamflow metrics to bedrock circulation depth and porosity under a plausible extreme drought scenario lasting up to 5 years. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. With drought, a deeper circulation system with higher drainable porosity more effectively buffers minimum flow and significantly limits perennial stream loss in comparison to a shallow circulation system. Streamflow buffering is accomplished through extensive groundwater storage loss. However, deeper circulation systems experience prolonged recovery from drought in comparison to storage‐limited shallow systems. Research highlights the importance of characterizing the deeper bedrock hydrogeology in mountainous watersheds to better understand and predict drought impacts on stream ecosystem health and water resource sustainability.

Colorado

Dietary bioavailability of uranium to a model freshwater invertebrate

Uranium (U) mining increases environmental exposures. Understanding how U is taken up by organisms can aid in evaluating the potential for bioaccumulation and toxicity. Although the importance of aqueous geochemical speciation is well recognized for U bioavailability after dissolved exposures, far less is known about the processes controlling U bioavailability after dietary exposures. This study characterizes the biogeochemical drivers of dietary U uptake in the freshwater snail Lymnaea stagnalis in laboratory experiments. Solids tested included benthic diatoms pre-exposed to dissolved U(VI), soils from contaminated U mine sites, and colloidal hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) synthesized in the presence of dissolved U(VI) or with U complexed by natural organic matter (NOM). Results showed that U was bioavailable from all solids. Uranium assimilation efficiency (AE), a proxy for dietary U bioavailability, varied among solids. AE was lowest for the U-contaminated soils (25 ± 17%) and highest for the U-laden diatoms (71 ± 13%). AE varied slightly among HFO preparations, suggesting modest influences of NOM and iron on U bioavailability. Increases in dietary U exposures reduced feeding rates, and the extent of feeding inhibition appeared inversely related to U bioavailability. The high U assimilation and range of bioavailability have implications for toxicity risks inferred without considering dietary uptake.

Environmental Science and Technology

Landslide volume estimation from seismic waveform features using a global catalog of seismogenic events

Seismic waves generated by large, rapid landslides encode information about the source and can be analyzed rapidly following an event. Even remote landslides can pose hazards to downstream communities, so rapid detection and characterization using existing seismic monitoring networks could be beneficial. In this study, we expand on past regionally limited work by presenting a globally applicable method for estimating landslide volume from seismic features that could be integrated into future landslide seismic monitoring frameworks. We train the model using multivariable linear regression and five seismic features derived from recordings of 129 landslide events of a range of styles and locations with independently estimated volumes. We present two preferred models, one that combines long‐period (LP) and high‐frequency (HF) features and one for use on smaller landslides without observed long‐period signals. We find that our best‐performing model, applicable to landslides larger than 100,000 m 3 with signals containing observable long‐period energy, requires only two features: LP (20–100 s) absolute maximum amplitude and HF (1–5 Hz) rise time (time between the signal start and the maximum envelope amplitude) and has an R 2 score of 0.79. This model predicted volumes within one order of magnitude for 55 out of 58 events. We find that this combination mitigates the trade‐off between mass and acceleration and other variations of landslide style that limit methods based on amplitude alone.

Seismological Research Letters

From critical minerals to food security, the benefits of data collaboration

The volume of data in the public geoscience sphere is rapidly and continually expanding. At Geoscience Australia (GA) we saw an over 500% increase in data points within our relational databases between 2018 and 2024, over the life of the Exploring for the Future (EFTF) program. With the Resourcing Australia’s Prosperity initiative, a continued increase in data quantity will be seen for the next 10 to 35 years. At the same time, a broadening audience for geoscience data is increasing the desire to enhance the diversity of delivery streams. This ranges from data-dense highly technical outputs for geoscience specialists to curated interpretive products for people who are non-geoscientists. Development of these curated outputs has contributed to our awareness of the need for data to be collected and compiled in a way that ensures its reuse, with a focus on quality metadata and data provenance.

Conference Paper

Post-glacial stratigraphy and late Holocene record of great Cascadia earthquakes in Ozette Lake, Washington, USA

Ozette Lake is an ~100-m-deep coastal lake located along the outer coast of the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA); it is situated above the locked portion of the northern Cascadia megathrust but also relatively isolated from active crustal faults and intraslab earthquakes. Here we present a suite of geophysical and geological evidence for earthquake-triggered mass transport deposits (MTDs) and related turbidite deposition in Ozette Lake since ca. 14 ka. Comprehensive high-resolution bathymetry data, seismic reflection profiles, and sediment cores are used to characterize the post-glacial stratigraphic framework and examine paleoseismic evidence in the lacustrine sediments. Stacked sequences of MTDs along the steep eastern flanks of the lake appear to grade basin-ward from thick, chaotic, blocky masses to thin, parallel-bedded turbidite beds. The discrete turbidite event layers are separated by fine-grained (silt and clay) lake sedimentation. The event layers are observed throughout the lake, but the physical characteristics of the deposits vary considerably depending on proximity to primary depocenters, steep slopes, and subaqueous deltas. A total of 30–34 event deposits are observed in the post-glacial record. Radiometric dating was used to reconstruct a detailed sedimentation history over the last ~5.5 k.y., develop an age model, and estimate the recurrence (365–405 yr) for the most recent 12 event layers. Based on sedimentological characteristics, temporal overlap with other regional paleoseismic chronologies, and recurrence estimates, at least 10 of the dated event layers appear to be sourced from slope failures triggered by intense shaking during megathrust ruptures; the recurrence interval for these 10 events is 440–560 yr. Thus, Ozette Lake contains one of the longest and most robust geological records of repeated shaking along the northern Cascadia subduction zone.

Washington

Don’t Let Negatives Hold You Back: Accounting for Underlying Physics and Natural Distributions of Hydrothermal Systems When Selecting Negative Training Sites Leads to Better Machine Learning Predictions

Selecting negative training sites is an important challenge to resolve when utilizing machine learning (ML) for predicting hydrothermal resource favorability because ideal models would discriminate between hydrothermal systems (positives) and all types of locations without hydrothermal systems (negatives). The Nevada Machine Learning project (NVML) fit an artificial neural network to identify areas favorable for hydrothermal systems by selecting 62 negative sites where the research team had confidence that no hydrothermal resource exists. Herein, we compare the implications of the expert selection of negatives (i.e., the NVML strategy) with a random sample strategy, where it is assumed that areas outside the favorable structural ellipses defined by NVML are negative. Because hydrothermal systems are sparse, it is highly probable that, in the absence of a favorable geological structure, hydrothermal favorability is low. We compare three training strategies: 1) the positive and negative labeled examples from NVML; 2) the positive examples from NVML with randomly selected negatives in equal frequency as NVML; and 3) the positive examples from NVML with randomly selected negatives reflecting the expected natural distribution of hydrothermal systems relative to the total area. We apply these training strategies to the NVML feature data (input data) using two ML algorithms (XGBoost and logistic regression) to create six favorability maps for hydrothermal resources. When accounting for the expected natural distribution of hydrothermal systems, we find that XGBoost performs better than the NVML neural network and its negatives. Model validation was less reliable using F1 scores, a common performance metric, than comparing probability estimates at known positives, likely because of the extreme natural class imbalance and the lack of negatively labeled sites. This work demonstrates that expert selection of negatives for training in NVML likely imparted modeling bias. Accounting for the sparsity of hydrothermal systems and all the types of locations without hydrothermal systems allows us to create better models for predicting hydrothermal resource favorability.

Geothermal Resources Council Transactions

Impact of land subsidence on housing sale values: Evidence from the San Joaquin Valley, California

This study assesses the impact of land subsidence on housing sale values in the San Joaquin Valley, California. The study utilizes home sale transactions and vertical land-surface displacement data from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar techniques. Using fine-scale fixed effects, matching, as well as a repeat-sales approach, our results indicate that land subsidence resulted in a 2.4% to 5.8% reduction in housing sale values, with the largest reductions occurring in areas where substantial subsidence occurred. Such findings may have implications for groundwater management and can potentially help inform policy design to help mitigate the causes and impacts of land subsidence.

California

Sediment thickness map of United States Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain Strata, and their influence on earthquake ground motions

With the recent successful accounting of basin depth ground-motion adjustments in seismic hazard analyses for select areas of the western United States, we move toward implementing similar adjustments in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains by constructing a sediment thickness model and evaluating multiple relevant site amplification models for central and eastern United States seismic hazard analyses. We digitize and combine existing sediment thickness data sets into a composite surface that delineates the base of Cretaceous sediments under the Atlantic Coastal Plain and the base of Mesozoic sediments under the Gulf Coastal Plain. Amplification models dependent on sediment thickness, site natural period, and source-to-site path length are compared with data sets of observed ground motions to evaluate the ability of the new models to improve ground motion estimates. We find that the amplification models can account for observed trends in sediment-thickness and period-dependent residuals, but some tuning is required. For example, the model of Chapman and Guo requires a reference V S 30 , the time-averaged shear-wave velocity within 30 m of the Earth’s surface, for non-Coastal Plain sites, which we estimate to be between about 1 and 2 km/s. Along with our sediment thickness model, we estimate a velocity profile for application to the Harmon et al. site-natural-period-based model in order to best match the Chapman and Guo period dependence for a broad range of sediment thicknesses. The Next Generation of Attenuation models for the eastern United States Gulf Coast path-based adjustment models can also account for seismic attenuation in the Coastal Plain sediments and reduce the standard deviation of total residuals. If enacted in the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model, these amplification models will reduce predicted short-period (<1 s) and increase predicted long-period (>1 s) ground motions in the Coastal Plains appreciably.

Earthquake Spectra