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USGS2020

Occupancy and detectability of northern long-eared bats in the Lake States Region

The northern long‐eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ) is one of the bat species most affected by white‐nose syndrome. Population declines attributed to white‐nose syndrome contributed to the species’ listing as federally threatened under the 1973 Endangered Species Act. Although one of the most abundant Myotine bats in eastern North America prior to white‐nose syndrome, little is known about northern long‐eared bats in the upper Midwest, USA. We assessed the habitat associations of the northern long‐eared bats on a regional scale using occupancy models that accounted for uncertainty in nightly detection to provide needed information on the distribution as white‐nose syndrome has recently arrived in this area. We monitored bat activity using zero‐crossing frequency‐division bat detectors for 10–15 nights at 20 detector sites at each of 3 sampling areas in Michigan, USA, and 6 sampling areas in Wisconsin, USA, stratified by mesic and xeric habitat types. We constructed northern long‐eared bat nightly detection histories for our occupancy analysis using maximum likelihood estimates from 2 commercially‐available automated identification programs: Kaleidoscope and Echoclass. We sampled for a total of 2,174 detector‐nights. Both Kaleidoscope and Echoclass identified northern long‐eared bat passes on 110 detector‐nights, whereas on 1,968 detector‐nights neither program identified a northern long‐eared bat call. Only one program or the other identified northern long‐eared bat calls on 206 detector‐nights, indicating an overall agreement rate of 35% on nights when calls were detected. We analyzed these data using an occupancy analysis accounting for the potential for false positives to assess the relationship between northern long‐eared bat presence and habitat characteristics. Our analyses indicated that the probability of a false positive at a site was low (0.015; 95% CI 0.009–0.021), and detection probability, but not occupancy, declined from 2015 to 2016 for sites in Wisconsin sampled in both years. Occupancy was positively associated with distance into the forest interior (distance from nearest road).

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2022

Estimates of k0 and effects on ground motions in the San Francisco Bay area

Ground‐motion studies are a key component of seismic hazard analyses and often rely on information of the source, path, and site. Extensive research has been done on each of these parameters; however, site‐specific studies are of particular interest to seismic hazard studies, especially in the field of earthquake engineering, as near‐site conditions can have a significant impact on the resulting ground motion at a site. There has been much focus on the constraint of site parameters and their application to seismic hazard studies, especially in the development of ground‐motion models (GMMs). Kappa is an observational parameter describing the high‐frequency attenuation of spectra, and its site contribution ( ⁠ κ 0 "> κ 0 ) has shown to be a good predictor of high‐frequency ground motions; however, measurements are often limited. In this study, we develop a κ 0 "> κ 0 dataset for the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) by estimating κ 0 "> κ 0 for 228 stations, and we produce a continuous regional map of κ 0 "> κ 0 ⁠ . We find κ 0 "> κ 0 to range between 0.003 and 0.072 s, with larger values concentrating on the east, north, and south sides of the bay, and lower values concentrating on the west side. We also evaluate the robustness of κ 0 "> κ 0 as a site parameter and find it to correlate with peak ground acceleration. These estimates of κ 0 "> κ 0 can add predictive power to GMMs, thus increasing the accuracy of predicted ground motion and improving the robustness of ground‐motion studies in the SFBA.

California↗

USGS2005

Attitudes of Vermont dairy farmers regarding adoption of management practices for grassland songbirds

In the northeastern United States, most populations of grassland songbirds occur on private lands. However, little information exists about the attitudes of farmers toward habitat management for this guild. To address this information gap, we surveyed 131 dairy farmers in Vermont's Champlain Valley to assess current hayfield management practices and farmers' willingness to adopt more “bird-friendly” practices. Our results showed a clear trend toward earlier and more frequent hayfield cuts. Farmers indicated they have little flexibility to alter the timing of their cuts on most of their land. However, many farmers (49%) indicated a willingness to adopt alternative management practices on at least a small portion of their land. Combined with the fact that many farmers characterized parts of their land as “wasteland,” or economically unproductive land, this result suggests that some leeway exists for increasing songbird habitat quality on at least portions of dairy farms. Although significant differences existed in the amount of land for which farmers were willing to adopt alternative management based on herd size, acreage, and experience, the directionality of these relationships could not be established except tentatively for herd size, in which case it appeared that farmers with smaller herds were more likely to dedicate a greater percentage of their land to alternative management. The results of this study likely have relevance to dairy farms throughout the northern-tier dairy states. Given the increasing trend for agricultural land to be converted into housing, we recommend that extension and education efforts target farmers with large hayfield acreages, encouraging the maintenance of high-quality habitat for grassland songbirds.

Vermont↗

USGS2025

Observability of eastern massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus) during visual encounter surveys in Michigan, USA

Visual encounter surveys are commonly used to document site occupancy for the eastern massasauga ( Sistrurus catenatus ; EMR). Efficacy of surveys depends on visual and auditory cues, with basking behavior and burrow use strongly affecting detection. Our goal was to predict body exposure and probability of burrow use from telemetered EMR to better inform implementation of visual encounter surveys. We collected body exposure and burrow use from 23 EMR (14 females [12 gravid], 9 males) from April through September (i.e., active season) at 2 sites in south central Michigan, USA, 2020–2022. Average body exposure for observed snakes was 42% (SE = 3%) and ranged from 0–100%. Percent body exposure during the active season was positively influenced by air temperature, where body exposure increased from ~25% at ~15°C to ~50% at ~35°C. We did not find an effect of cloud cover, hour of day, humidity, or sex on EMR body exposure. Of 176 observations of EMR during the active season, we found EMR using burrows 20 times (~11% of observations). Julian date and air temperature affected the probability of EMR burrow use early in the active season. Probability of EMR burrow use was <0.10 from the end of May through the end of October and was almost 0.00 after mid-July. The probability of using a burrow was generally low (i.e., <0.25) across the range of air temperatures measured in our study, but approached 0.00 as temperatures exceeded 30°C. We did not find an effect of cloud cover, time of day, humidity, or sex on probability of EMR burrow use. Our results indicated that EMR observability in southern Michigan was greatest when air temperatures were 30°C to 35°C, corresponding to when EMR were visible and aboveground.

Michigan↗

USGS1965

Vigil Network sites: A sample of data for permanent filing

The Vigil Network consists of places where observations are made through time to record changes in landscape features over a long period. Resurveys will usually be made once each year or every few years and the period of observation, hopefully, will extend through and beyond the International Hydrological Decade. Vigil Network sites will usually be chosen to represent some typical feature of a given landscape. In the example shown here, the feature is a small ephemeral channel in a basin of moderate relief underlain by silty sandstone typical of the surrounding area. Vigil sites are not protected from man's influence and indeed may be selected because of the possible or portending cultural influences. In this respect they differ from the Bench Mark Network whose purpose is to make precise observations of hydrologic factors in areas uninfluenced by and protected from man's use. The factors which might be observed are many and varied. A few might be mentioned here, others are explained at length elsewhere (Miller and Leopold, 1963; Leopold, 1962). Streamchannel position, form, depth, and profile; vegetation in form of transects or quadrats; soil movement on slopes; rock movement on slopes or in channels. These and many more would yield valuable information on changes with time. To assure permanence of initial field observations, including reference points, bench marks, and cross sections, brief descriptions, maps, and initial data should be filed identically in designated repositories where the data will be made available for inspection by any interested scientist. It is recommended that the designation of two such locations where records of the type here attached will be filed be taken up by the Coordinating Council of the International Hydrological Decade. In designating such repositories it should be recognized that there is no need for elaborate indexing. The main requirement is merely the maintenance of a simple file where the data are stored and can be inspected or copied by any scientist. There need be no special provision for lending or reproduction services. The present document is an example showing what data, maps, and descriptions should be included in those permanent files at the two repositories. The material in these repositories should be sufficient to permit someone in the indefinite future to find and remeasure the same features described now. Thus the scientific value of the original surveys increases with time, - provided that the descriptions are sufficient to allow a person to find with assurance the original feature in the field. It must be visualized that a permanent repository must economize in space. Thus, as the example here shows, the filed material is not all of the original field notes but a summary, brief but descriptive.

International Association of Scientific Hydrology ↗

USGS2018

The 19 September 2017 M 7.1 Puebla‐Morelos earthquake: Spectral ratios confirm Mexico City zoning

One important element of understanding basin response to strong shaking is the analysis of spectral ratios, which may provide information about the dominant frequency of ground motion at specific locations. Spectral ratios computed from accelerations recorded by strong‐motion stations in Mexico City during the mainshock of the 19 September 2017 M "> M M 7.1 Puebla‐Morelos earthquake reveal predominate periods consistent with those mapped in the 2004 Mexican seismic design code. Furthermore, the predominant periods thus computed validate those studies using mainshock and aftershock recordings of the handful strong‐motion stations that recorded the 19 September 1985 M "> M M 8.1 Michoacán earthquake. Even though the number of stations in each of the zones (zones I, II, IIIa, b, c, and d) is not the same, they still allow confirmation of site frequencies (periods) attributable to the specific zones (particularly those in zones IIIa, b, c, and d). Spectral ratios are computed with two different methods: (1) horizontal to horizontal (H/H) ratio of smoothed amplitude spectrum of a horizontal channel in direction X of a station with respect to the smoothed amplitude spectrum of the horizontal channel in the same X direction of a reference stiff soil (or rock) station and (2) horizontal to vertical (H/V) ratio (or also known as the Nakamura method) of both horizontal (H) and vertical (V) channels of the same station. We show a comparison of the identified frequencies (periods) derived by both methods and find they are very similar and in good agreement with those indicated in the zoning maps of Mexico City in the 2004 seismic design code.

Mexico City↗

USGS2004

Commentary: A cautionary tale regarding use of the National Land Cover Dataset 1992

Digital land-cover data are among the most popular data sources used in ecological research and natural resource management. However, processes for accurate land-cover classification over large regions are still evolving. We identified inconsistencies in the National Land Cover Dataset 1992, the most current and available representation of land cover for the conterminous United States. We also report means to address these inconsistencies in a bird-habitat model. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to position a regular grid (or lattice) over the upper midwestern United States and summarized the proportion of individual land covers in each cell within the lattice. These proportions were then mapped back onto the lattice, and the resultant lattice was compared to satellite paths, state borders, and regional map classification units. We observed mapping inconsistencies at the borders between mapping regions, states, and Thematic Mapper (TM) mapping paths in the upper midwestern United States, particularly related to grass I and-herbaceous, emergent-herbaceous wetland, and small-grain land covers. We attributed these discrepancies to differences in image dates between mapping regions, suboptimal image dates for distinguishing certain land-cover types, lack of suitable ancillary data for improving discrimination for rare land covers, and possibly differences among image interpreters. To overcome these inconsistencies for the purpose of modeling regional populations of birds, we combined grassland-herbaceous and pasture-hay land-cover classes and excluded the use of emergent-herbaceous and small-grain land covers. We recommend that users of digital land-cover data conduct similar assessments for other regions before using these data for habitat evaluation. Further, caution is advised in using these data in the analysis of regional land-cover change because it is not likely that future digital land-cover maps will repeat the same problems, thus resulting in biased estimates of change.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2022

Spatially averaged stratigraphic data to inform watershed sediment routing: An example from the Mid-Atlantic United States

New and previously published stratigraphic data define Holocene to present sediment storage time scales for Mid-Atlantic river corridors. Empirical distributions of deposit ages and thicknesses were randomly sampled to create synthetic age-depth records. Deposits predating European settlement accumulated at a (median) rate of 0.06 cm yr −1 , range from ∼18,000 to 225 yr old, and represent 39% (median) of the total accumulation. Sediments deposited from 1750 to 1950 (“legacy sediments”) accumulated at a (median) rate of 0.39 cm yr −1 and comprise 47% (median) of the total, while “modern sediments” (1950−present) represent 11% of the total and accumulated at a (median) rate of 0.25 cm yr −1 . Synthetic stratigraphic sequences, recast as age distributions for the presettlement period, in 1900 A.D., and at present, reflect rapid postsettlement alluviation, with enhanced preservation of younger sediments related to postsettlement watershed disturbance. An averaged present age distribution for vertically accreted sediment has modal, median, and mean ages of 190, 230, and 630 yr, reflecting the predominance of stored legacy sediments and the influence of relatively few, much older early Holocene deposits. The present age distribution, if represented by an exponential approximation (mean age ∼300 yr), and naively assumed to represent steady-state conditions, implies median sediment travel times on the order of centuries for travel distances greater than ∼100 km. The percentage of sediment reaching the watershed outlet in 30 yr (a reasonable time horizon to achieve watershed restoration efficacy) is ∼60% for a distance of 50 km, but this decreases to <20% for distances greater than 200 km. Age distributions, evaluated through time, not only encapsulate the history of sediment storage, but they also provide data for calibrating watershed-scale sediment-routing models over geological time scales.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia↗

USGS1942

Correlation of the outcropping cretaceous formations of the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain and trans-Pecos Texas

This is Number 9 of a series of correlation charts prepared by the Committee on Stratigraphy of the National Research Council, which will cover the post-Proterozoic sedimentary formations of North America. For general information about the project the reader is referred to the general introduction preceding this paper. The senior author, Lloyd W. Stephenson, is responsible for that part of the chart treating of the Upper Cretaceous series in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain (exceptions noted below) and the Lower Cretaceous series of the North Atlantic Coastal Plain; with respect to the Upper Cretaceous his presentation is based largely on his personal knowledge of the paleontology and stratigraphy of the area, gained from field and laboratory studies ranging from reconnaissance to detailed; all published information has been considered, and much of it utilized, but it is not practicable to include a complete bibliography. References are given to papers presenting views differing from those of the author, and to recent papers not yet listed in bibliographies. A complete bibliography of Texas geology through 1932 is given by Sellards (1933, p. 819-965). Watson H. Monroe has collaborated in the preparation of that part of the chart showing therelations of the Upper Cretaceous units in Alabama and Mississippi. The classification shown in the Upper Cretaceous part of the Delaware column is based on a recently published paper by Charles W. Carter (1937, p. 237-281). Philip B. King is responsible for the remainder of the chart covering the Lower Cretaceous (Comanche series) of central Texas (largely compiled from published sources) and all of the Cretaceous in trans-Pecos Texas (from personal knowledge and published sources). In March 1941 this part of the chart was checked by R. W. Imlay, and changes were made by King at his suggestion. References to the more important literature are given. In a correlation chart of this kind, in which age equivalencies are expressed by horizontal lining, it is obviously impossible to indicate relative thicknesses by vertical spacing. Hiatuses are indicated by vertical lining. The red-line overprint is intended to indicate certain important lithologic and faunal boundaries, and to assist the eye in recognizing the age relationships of the geologic units

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2024

A far-traveled basalt lava flow in north-central Oregon, USA

Widely separated basalt lava-flow outcrops in north-central Oregon, USA, expose products of a single eruptive episode. A Pliocene lava flow, here informally termed the Tetherow basalt, issued from vents near Redmond, in the Deschutes basin of Oregon, as a plains-forming basalt now exposed in continuous outcrops northward for 60 km. A similar basalt crops out 47 km farther north, near Maupin, within what was then a slightly incised ancestral Deschutes River canyon. The northernmost outcrops of this lava flow lie on Fulton Ridge, in the Dalles basin, near the confluence of the Deschutes and Columbia Rivers. Complementary lines of evidence confirm these rocks are all from the same volcanic eruption. Outcrops in the Deschutes and Dalles basins are chemically similar high-titanium basalts, petrographically similar to each other and distinct from other lava flows in the area. Paleomagnetic directions from 11 scattered sites are similar and indistinguishable by various tests for a common mean. Three new 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages indicate the Tetherow basalt eruption occurred between 5.5 Ma and 5.0 Ma, likely at ca. 5.2 Ma. The widely separated outcrops of this lava flow span 160–180 km along the ancestral Deschutes River and downstream Columbia River. The lava flow’s length and erupted volume of 15–20 km 3 are extraordinarily large in a non-flood-basalt setting. This lava flow provides a datum with which to describe regional physiographic history, assess incision rates, and infer tectonic history. Spanning different depositional basins, the Tetherow basalt is a useful chronologic and stratigraphic marker bed.

Oregon↗

USGS2005

Minimum population size of Mountain Plovers breeding in Wyoming

As human disturbance of natural landscapes increases, so does the need for information on declining, threatened, and potentially threatened native species. Proposed listing of the Mountain Plover ( Charadrius montanus ) as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 1999 was found unwarranted in 2003, but this species remains of special concern to management agencies and conservation groups. Whereas large concentrations of breeding Mountain Plovers occur in Montana and Colorado, estimates of the numbers of Mountain Plovers in Wyoming have ranged from only 500 to 1,500 individuals and are based largely on conjecture. In 2002, we visited all known breeding locales in the state to define areas of concentrated sightings in the Laramie, Shirley, Washakie, Great Divide, and Big Horn basins. In 2003, we used distance sampling to estimate breeding bird densities in these five areas. We pooled these estimates and applied the resulting density to a minimum occupied range for the Mountain Plover based on the documented sightings and a previously derived home-range size of 56.6 ha ± 21.5 (SD) to generate a minimum population estimate for the state. Average Mountain Plover density was 4.47 ± 0.55 (SE) birds/km 2 . We calculated a minimum population estimate of 3,393 birds for Wyoming. The Mountain Plover population breeding in Wyoming appears to contribute substantially to a revised continental population estimate of 11,000 to 14,000 birds. Our approach may have applications to quantifying minimum population status of other uncommon species or species of special conservation concern using current database records, such as those compiled in Natural Heritage Programs at the state level.

Wyoming↗

USGS1981

Geology of central Lake Michigan

The geology beneath Lake Michigan between 43°00' and 44°00' N and between 86°30' and 87°40' W is interpreted from a synthesis of 1,700 km of continuous seismic reflection profile data, bathymetry, grab samples, and onshore surface and subsurface information. The continuous seismic reflection profiles and bathymetry provided information for maps of unconsolidated sediment thickness and Paleozoic bedrock topography. The map of unconsolidated sediment (primarily Pleistocene) shows thicknesses ranging from 180 m in a steep-walled, northeast-trending valley to less than 10 m over a mid-lake topographic high. This valley and the mid-lake high are the dominant topographic features developed on the gently eastward-dipping Paleozoic rocks along this part of the western flank of the Michigan basin. Two structural-stratigraphic cross sections of the study area were constructed by utilizing a composite subsurface-surface section for eastern Wisconsin and two control wells in western Michigan. The cross sections, grab samples previously described in the literature, the bedrock topographic map, and published maps were used to construct a Paleozoic geologic map for central Lake Michigan. Rocks from Middle Silurian through Early Mississippian age form subcrops beneath the study area, whereas rocks of Early Silurian, Ordovician, and Late Cambrian age are present at greater depth. The Upper Cambrian rocks unconformably overlie Precambrian igneous and metamorphic rocks. The structural-stratigraphic cross sections also allow us to speculate about the petroleum potential beneath Lake Michigan. The possibility of oil occurrences within the Silurian is enhanced by major east-west facies changes, and other horizons with promise are present in Devonian and Ordovician rocks. Although Michigan and Wisconsin laws currently prohibit petroleum exploration in Lake Michigan, it is an area with future potential.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Testing methods for using high-resolution satellite imagery to monitor polar bear abundance and distribution

High-resolution satellite imagery is a promising tool for providing coarse information about polar species abundance and distribution, but current applications are limited. With polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ), the technique has only proven effective on landscapes with little topographic relief that are devoid of snow and ice, and time-consuming manual review of imagery is required to identify bears. Here, we evaluated mechanisms to further develop methods for satellite imagery by examining data from Rowley Island, Canada. We attempted to automate and expedite detection via a supervised spectral classification and image differencing to expedite image review. We also assessed what proportion of a region should be sampled to obtain reliable estimates of density and abundance. Although the spectral signature of polar bears differed from nontarget objects, these differences were insufficient to yield useful results via a supervised classification process. Conversely, automated image differencing—or subtracting one image from another—correctly identified nearly 90% of polar bear locations. This technique, however, also yielded false positives, suggesting that manual review will still be required to confirm polar bear locations. On Rowley Island, bear distribution approximated a Poisson distribution across a range of plot sizes, and resampling suggests that sampling >50% of the site facilitates reliable estimation of density (CV <15%). Satellite imagery may be an effective monitoring tool in certain areas, but large-scale applications remain limited because of the challenges in automation and the limited environments in which the method can be effectively applied. Improvements in resolution may expand opportunities for its future uses.

Rowley Island↗

USGS2010

On possible plume-guided seismic waves

Hypothetical thermal plumes in the Earth's mantle are expected to have low seismic-wave speeds and thus would support the propagation of guided elastic waves analogous to fault-zone guided seismic waves, fiber-optic waves, and acoustic waves in the oceanic SOund Fixing And Ranging channel. Plume-guided waves would be insensitive to geometric complexities in the wave guide, and their dispersion would make them distinctive on seismograms and would provide information about wave-guide structure that would complement seismic tomography. Detecting such waves would constitute strong evidence of a new kind for the existence of plumes. A cylindrical channel embedded in an infinite medium supports two classes of axially symmetric elastic-wave modes, torsional and longitudinal-radial. Torsional modes have rectilinear particle motion tangent to the cylinder surface. Longitudinal-radial modes have elliptical particle motion in planes that include the cylinder axis, with retrograde motion near the axis. The direction of elliptical particle motion reverses with distance from the axis: once for the fundamental mode, twice for the first overtone, and so on. Each mode exists only above its cut-off frequency, where the phase and group speeds equal the shear-wave speed in the infinite medium. At high frequencies, both speeds approach the shear-wave speed in the channel. All modes have minima in their group speeds, which produce Airy phases on seismograms. For shear wave-speed contrasts of a few percent, thought to be realistic for thermal plumes in the Earth, the largest signals are inversely dispersed and have dominant frequencies of about 0.1-1 Hz and durations of 15-30 sec. There are at least two possible sources of observable plume waves: (1) the intersection of mantle plumes with high-amplitude core-phase caustics in the deep mantle; and (2) ScS-like reflection at the core-mantle boundary of downward-propagating guided waves. The widespread recent deployment of broadband seismometers makes searching for these waves possible.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Evaluation of autonomous recording units for detecting 3 species of secretive marsh birds

Population status and habitat use of yellow rails ( Coturnicops noveboracensis ), Nelson's sparrows ( Ammodramus nelsoni ), and Le Conte's sparrows ( A. leconteii ) are poorly known, so standardized surveys of these species are needed to inform conservation planning and management. A protocol for monitoring secretive marsh birds exists; however, these species regularly call at night and may be missed during early morning surveys. We tested the effectiveness of autonomous recording units (hereafter, recording units) to survey these species by analyzing recorded vocalizations using bioacoustics software. We deployed 22 recording units at 54 sites in northern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota, USA, and conducted traditional broadcast surveys during May–June, 2010 and 2011. We compared detection probabilities between recording units and standard monitoring protocols using robust-design occupancy models. On average, recording units detected 0.59 (SE = 0.11) fewer Le Conte's sparrows, 0.76 (SE = 0.15) fewer Nelson's sparrows, and 1.01 (SE = 0.14) fewer yellow rails per survey than were detected using the standard protocol. Detection probabilities using the standard protocol averaged 0.95 (yellow rail; 95% CI = 0.86–0.98), 0.93 (Le Conte's sparrow; 95% CI = 0.78–0.98), and 0.89 (Nelson's sparrow; 95% CI = 0.56–0.98), but averaged 0.71 (yellow rail; 95% CI = 0.56–0.83), 0.61 (Le Conte's sparrow; 95% CI = 0.42–0.78), and 0.51 (Nelson's sparrow; 95% CI = 0.19–0.82) using recording units. Reduced detection by recording units was likely due to the ability of human listeners to identify birds calling at greater distances. Recording units may be effective for surveying nocturnal secretive marsh birds if investigators correct for differential detectability. Reduced detectability may be outweighed by the increased spatial and temporal coverage feasible with recording units.

Minnesota, North Dakota↗

USGS2023

Incorporation of real-time earthquake magnitudes estimated via peak ground displacement scaling in the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system

The United States earthquake early warning (EEW) system, ShakeAlert®, currently employs two algorithms based on seismic data alone to characterize the earthquake source, reporting the weighted average of their magnitude estimates. Nonsaturating magnitude estimates derived in real time from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data using peak ground displacement (PGD) scaling relationships offer complementary information with the potential to improve EEW reliability for large earthquakes. We have adapted a method that estimates magnitude from PGD ( Crowell et al. , 2016 ) for possible production use by ShakeAlert. To evaluate the potential contribution of the modified algorithm, we installed it on the ShakeAlert development system for real‐time operation and for retrospective analyses using a suite of GNSS data that we compiled. Because of the colored noise structure of typical real‐time GNSS positions, observed PGD values drift over time periods relevant to EEW. To mitigate this effect, we implemented logic within the modified algorithm to control when it issues initial and updated PGD‐derived magnitude estimates ( ⁠ M PGD "> M PGD "> M PGD PGD ⁠ ), and to quantify M PGD "> M PGD PGD uncertainty for use in combining it with estimates from other ShakeAlert algorithms running in parallel. Our analysis suggests that, with these strategies, spuriously large M PGD "> M PGD PGD will seldom be incorporated in ShakeAlert’s magnitude estimate. Retrospective analysis of data from moderate‐to‐great earthquakes demonstrates that the modified algorithm can contribute to better magnitude estimates for M w > 7.0 "> M w > 7.0 w>7.0 events. GNSS station distribution throughout the ShakeAlert region limits how soon the modified algorithm can begin estimating magnitude in some locations. Furthermore, both the station density and the GNSS noise levels limit the minimum magnitude for which the modified algorithm is likely to contribute to the weighted average. This might be addressed by alternative GNSS processing strategies that reduce noise.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1999

The strain in the array is mainly in the plane (waves below ~1 Hz)

We compare geodetic and single-station methods of measuring dynamic deformations and characterize their causes in the frequency bands 0.5-1.0 Hz and 4.0-8.0 Hz. The geodetic approach utilizes data from small-aperture seismic arrays, applying techniques from geodesy. It requires relatively few assumptions and a priori information. The single-station method uses ground velocities recorded at isolated or single stations and assumes all the deformation is due to plane-wave propagation. It also requires knowledge of the azimuth and horizontal velocity of waves arriving at the recording station. Data employed come from a small-aperture, dense seismic array deployed in Geyokcha, Turkmenistan, and include seismograms recorded by broadband STS2 and short-period L28 sensors. Poor agreement between geodetic and single-station estimates in the 4.0-8.0 Hz passband indicates that the displacement field may vary nonlinearly with distance over distances of ∼50 m. STS2 geodetic estimates provide a robust standard in the 0.5-1.0 Hz passband because they appear to be computationally stable and require fewer assumptions than single-station estimates. The agreement between STS2 geodetic estimates and single-station L28 estimates is surprisingly good for the S -wave and early surface waves, suggesting that the single-station analysis should be useful with commonly available data. These results indicate that, in the 0.5 to 1.0 Hz passband, the primary source of dynamic deformation is plane-wave propagation along great-circle source-receiver paths. For later arriving energy, the effects of scattering become important. The local structure beneath the array exerts a strong control on the geometry of the dynamic deformation, implying that it may be difficult to infer source characteristics of modern or paleoearthquakes from indicators of dynamic deformations. However, strong site control also suggests that the dynamic deformations may be predictable, which would be useful for engineering seismically resistant structures.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2012

Development of regional skews for selected flood durations for the Central Valley Region, California, based on data through water year 2008

Flood-frequency information is important in the Central Valley region of California because of the high risk of catastrophic flooding. Most traditional flood-frequency studies focus on peak flows, but for the assessment of the adequacy of reservoirs, levees, other flood control structures, sustained flood flow (flood duration) frequency data are needed. This study focuses on rainfall or rain-on-snow floods, rather than the annual maximum, because rain events produce the largest floods in the region. A key to estimating flood-duration frequency is determining the regional skew for such data. Of the 50 sites used in this study to determine regional skew, 28 sites were considered to have little to no significant regulated flows, and for the 22 sites considered significantly regulated, unregulated daily flow data were synthesized by using reservoir storage changes and diversion records. The unregulated, annual maximum rainfall flood flows for selected durations (1-day, 3-day, 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day) for all 50 sites were furnished by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Station skew was determined by using the expected moments algorithm program for fitting the Pearson Type 3 flood-frequency distribution to the logarithms of annual flood-duration data. Bayesian generalized least squares regression procedures used in earlier studies were modified to address problems caused by large cross correlations among concurrent rainfall floods in California and to address the extensive censoring of low outliers at some sites, by using the new expected moments algorithm for fitting the LP3 distribution to rainfall flood-duration data. To properly account for these problems and to develop suitable regional-skew regression models and regression diagnostics, a combination of ordinary least squares, weighted least squares, and Bayesian generalized least squares regressions were adopted. This new methodology determined that a nonlinear model relating regional skew to mean basin elevation was the best model for each flood duration. The regional-skew values ranged from -0.74 for a flood duration of 1-day and a mean basin elevation less than 2,500 feet to values near 0 for a flood duration of 7-days and a mean basin elevation greater than 4,500 feet. This relation between skew and elevation reflects the interaction of snow and rain, which increases with increased elevation. The regional skews are more accurate, and the mean squared errors are less than in the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data's National skew map of Bulletin 17B.

California↗