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USGS2020

One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model: A MODFLOW based conjunctive-use simulation software

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005) is a computer program that simulates groundwater flow by using finite differences. The MODFLOW-2005 framework uses a modular design that allows for the easy development and incorporation of new features called processes and packages that work with or modify inputs to the groundwater-flow equation. A process solves a flow equation or set of equations. For example, the central part of MODFLOW is the groundwater-flow process that solves the groundwater-flow equation; the surface-water routing process is an additional process that solves the surface-water flow equation. Packages are code related to the groundwater-flow process. For example, the subsidence package modifies the groundwater-flow process by including aquifer compaction effects on flow. With the development of new packages and processes, the MODFLOW-2005 base framework diverged into multiple independent versions designed for specific simulation needs. This divergence limited each independent MODFLOW release to its specific purpose, so that there was no longer a single, comprehensive, general-purpose hydraulic-simulation framework. The MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM, also informally known as OneWater) is an integrated hydrologic flow model that combines multiple MODFLOW-2005 variants in one cohesive simulation software; changes were made to enable multiple capabilities in one code. This fusion of the MODFLOW-2005 versions resulted in a simulation software that can be used to address and analyze a wide class of conjunctive-use, water-management, water-food-security, and climate-crop-water scenarios. As a second core version of MODFLOW-2005, MF-OWHM maintains backward compatibility with existing MODFLOW-2005 versions, with features that include the following: Process-based simulation. Saturated groundwater flow (three-dimensional). Surface-water flow (one- and two-dimensional). Stream and river flow. Lake and reservoir storage. Landscape simulation and irrigated agriculture. Land-use and crop simulation. Root uptake of groundwater. Actual evapotranspiration. Estimated irrigation demand. Reservoir operations. Aquifer compaction and subsidence by vertical model-grid deformation. Seawater intrusion by a sharp-interface assumption. Karst-aquifer and fractured-bedrock flow. Turbulent and laminar-pipe network flow. Unsaturated groundwater flow (one-dimensional). Internal linkages among the processes that couple hydraulic head, flow, and deformation. Redesigned code for faster simulation, increased user-input options, easier model updates, and more robust error reporting than in previous models. MF-OWHM is a MODFLOW-2005 based integrated hydrologic model that can simulate and analyze varying environmental conditions to allow for the evaluation of management options from many components of human and natural water movement through a physically based, supply and demand framework. The term “integrated,” in the context of this report, refers to the tight coupling of groundwater flow, surface-water flow, landscape processes, aquifer compaction and subsidence, reservoir operations, and conduit (karst) flow. Another benefit of this integrated hydrologic model is that models developed to run by MODFLOW-2005, MODFLOW-NWT, MODFLOW-CFP, or MODFLOW-FMP can also be simulated with MF-OWHM. At the time of this report’s publication, MF-OWHM version 2 (MF-OWHM2) does not include a direct internal simulation of snowmelt, advanced mountainous watershed rainfall-runoff simulation, detailed shallow soil-moisture accounting, or atmospheric moisture content. Atmospheric moisture may be accounted for indirectly by, optionally, specifying a pan-evaporation rate, reference evapotranspiration, and precipitation. These features are not included to ensure that simulation runtime remains short enough to enable the use of automated methods of calibrating model parameters to field observations, which typically require many simulation model runs. The MF-OWHM approach is to include as much detail as possible to simulate hydrological processes, providing the simulation runtimes remain reasonable enough to allow for robust parameter estimation and model calibration. To represent both natural and human-influenced flow, MF-OWHM integrates physically based flow processes derived from MODFLOW-2005 in a supply and demand framework. From this integration, the physically based movement of groundwater, surface water, imported water, and precipitation serve as supply to meet consumptive demands associated with irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, natural vegetation, and urban water uses. Water consumption is determined by balancing the available water supply with water demand, leading to the concept of a demand-driven, supply-constrained simulation. The MF-OWHM Supply-and-Demand Framework is especially useful for the analysis of agricultural water use, where there are often few data available to describe changes in land-use through time, such as crop type and distribution, and the associated changes in groundwater pumpage. This framework attempts to satisfy each land-use water demand with available water supplies—that is, groundwater uptake, precipitation, and irrigation. An option provided in MF-OWHM2 is to automatically increase groundwater pumping for irrigation, which often is unknown, by the calculated residual between demand and the other available sources of supply. From large- to small-scale applications, the physically based supply and demand framework provides key capabilities for simulating and analyzing historical, current, and future conjunctive-use of surface water and groundwater. To achieve the physically based supply and demand framework, the MODFLOW-2005 standard of no inter-package and -process communication was relaxed for MF-OWHM2. Traditional MODFLOW simulation models required that all packages and processes interact through the groundwater-flow equation or by removing the water flow from the simulation domain. For example, the MODFLOW-2005 representation of a groundwater well extracts water from the groundwater-flow equation (by subtraction) and removes it from the simulation domain. This feature is available in the MF-OWHM framework, but options have been added to allow the specification of a use or destination of pumped groundwater within the model domain, for example, it can be used for irrigation, managed aquifer recharge, or return-flow to streams.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2025

Laying sequence and oceanographic factors affect egg size in Scripps's Murrelets Synthliboramphus scrippsi at Santa Barbara Island

Egg size is an important avian life history parameter, with larger eggs indicating greater investment of resources in the chick. Prey availability can affect such investment. We investigated the effects of oceanographic conditions and laying sequence on Scripps's Murrelet Synthliboramphus scrippsi egg size at Santa Barbara Island, California during 2009-2017. We evaluated oceanographic covariates characterizing marine productivity for their effect on egg size, including large-scale oceanographic indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. We also evaluated a larval anchovy catch-per-unit-effort (ANCHL) index and the Biologically Effective Upwelling Transport Index (BEUTI) as region-wide indices, and sea surface temperature (SST) as a local index. We evaluated oceanographic conditions over the entire year and during the breeding season only. We also considered the contribution of lagged effects to oceanographic conditions. Our results generally ran counter to our hypothesis that increased ocean productivity should increase egg size. Based on Akaike's Information Criterion, the four top-ranked models provided support for an association between larger eggs and conditions indicative of lower oceanographic productivity, including lower values of BEUTI and NPGO, and higher values of ONI, PDO, and SST. The only result that supported our hypothesis was a positive relationship between ANCHL and egg size, although the 95% confidence interval for the effect included 0. The strongest relationship detected was between laying sequence and egg size, as second eggs were considerably larger than first eggs. Our results indicate substantial complexity in the relationship between ocean productivity and seabird demography. A better understanding of how ocean productivity affects seabird breeding outcomes through multiple mechanisms will help improve predictions of how seabirds will respond to changing ocean conditions.

California↗

USGS2000

Environmental Contaminants and Terrestrial Vertebrates: Effects on Populations, Communities, and Ecosystems

The desire of resource managers, risk assessors, and the general public to better understand the consequences of environmental contamination has produced a strong and growing need for information on the effects of contaminants on populations and groups of species, and over moderate to large areas of land or water. However, the problems associated with research involving populations and groups of species or large and complex geographic areas, especially in terrestrial environments, are well known within the scientific community. With the previous thoughts in mind, an interactive symposium was held at the University of Maryland in October 1998. The purpose of the symposium was to review and critically evaluate our understanding of the effects of contaminants on terrestrial vertebrates at levels of organization above that of the individual. Invited background and technical presentations provided a common baseline of information for symposium participants. Discussion groups were then asked to critically evaluate the topics of two technical sessions. Several presentations of recent or ongoing research provided participants with examples of current approaches to assessments of the effects of contaminants on terrestrial vertebrates at the population or higher level of organization. The book consists of 10 chapters written by presenters at the symposium and three chapters conveying the reports of discussion group.

SETAC Special Publications Series.↗

USGS1997

Relationships between salt marsh loss and dredged canals in three Louisiana Estuaries

Coastal land loss rates were quantified for 27 salt marshes in three estuaries of the Louisiana Mississippi Deltaic plain: Barataria, Terrebonne and St. Bernard. The sites ranged from 23 ha to 908 ha and the total area of all sites was 6,367 ha. Two methods were used to calculate open water and canal density in each of five years: (1) a Geographic Information System for 1956 and 1978, and, (2) a point grid method for 1974, 1988, and 1990. A General Linear Model explained 79% of the variance (R2 = 0.79; P ??? 0.95) among basins for all years and provided an estimate of the impacts of canals in each basin. The land loss rates, virtually all occurring as wetland to open water conversions, were different in each basin. The 'background' land loss rates from 1956 to 1990 (exclusive of the direct or indirect effects of canals; %/yr; ?? + 1 Std. Dev.) for each basin were estimated to be: Barataria: 0.71 ?? 0.12, Terrebonne 0.47 ?? 0.09, and St. Bernard 0.08 ?? 0.14. Canals were equally and directly correlated with landloss in each basin. There was 2.85 ha of open water formed with each ha of canal dredged (inclusive of the canal area) and an additional 1 ha wetland converted to spoil bank vegetation. Additional losses may occur if loss rates continue for periods longer than the mapping intervals. There are documented causal mechanisms involving wetland hydrologic changes that can explain these wetland losses.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS1999

Pool 13 drawdown: Predicting success rates and affected areas

The likelihood of 1- or 2-foot drawdowns, and the area affected by such alternative drawdowns, was estimated for Pool 13 on the Upper Mississippi River. Minimum water surface (elevation) requirements were compared to computed water surface profiles to determine a critical low flow that would allow a navigation channel 400 feet wide and 10.5 feet deep. An upper limit on flow was established based on the flow at which open river conditions would exist for a given drawdown. The range in flows that would allow for a drawdown was used to estimate success rates using historical daily discharge data. Success rates were determined for a variety of drawdown durations between two time periods. May 1—August 15 and June 15—August 15. The greatest effect of the drawdown would he near Lock and Dam 13. Higher discharges, as well as distance from the dam. lessen the drawdown amount. Areas that would he affected by these two drawdown scenarios were predicted by overlaying maps of water surfaces with depths using a geographic information system. Although the drawdown effects on most physical and biotic components of Pool 13 arc unknown, some general drawdown effects likely to occur because of the changes in water surface elevation are presented.

Illinois, Iowa↗

USGS2023

Assimilating ecological theory with empiricism: Using constrained generalized additive models to enhance survival analyses

1. Integrating ecological theory with empirical methods is ubiquitous in ecology using hierarchical Bayesian models. However, there has been little development focused on integration of ecological theory into models for survival analysis. Survival is a fundamental process, linking individual fitness with population dynamics, but incorporating life history strategies to inform survival estimation can be challenging because mortality processes occur at multiple scales. 2. We develop an approach to survival analysis, incorporating model constraints based on a species' life history strategy using functional analytical tools. Specifically, we structurally separate intrinsic patterns of mortality that arise from age-specific processes (e.g. increasing survival during early life stages due to growth or maturation, versus senescence) from extrinsic mortality patterns that arise over different periods of time (e.g. seasonal temporal shifts). We use shape constrained generalized additive models (CGAMs) to obtain age-specific hazard functions that incorporate theoretical information based on classical survivorship curves into the age component of the model and capture extrinsic factors in the time component. 3. We compare the performance of our modelling approach to standard survival modelling tools that do not explicitly incorporate species life history strategy in the model structure, using metrics of predictive power, accuracy, efficiency and computation time. We applied these models to two case studies that reflect different functional shapes for the underlying survivorship curves, examining age-period survival for white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus in Wisconsin, USA and Columbian sharp-tailed grouse T ympanuchus phasianellus columbianus in Colorado, USA.

Colorado, Wisconsin↗

USGS2022

Modeling protected species distributions and habitats to inform siting and management of pioneering ocean industries: A case study for Gulf of Mexico aquaculture

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) provides a process that uses spatial data and models to evaluate environmental, social, economic, cultural, and management trade-offs when siting (i.e., strategically locating) ocean industries. Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food sector in the world. The United States (U.S.) has substantial opportunity for offshore aquaculture development given the size of its exclusive economic zone, habitat diversity, and variety of candidate species for cultivation. However, promising aquaculture areas overlap many protected species habitats. Aquaculture siting surveys, construction, operations, and decommissioning can alter protected species habitat and behavior. Additionally, aquaculture-associated vessel activity, underwater noise, and physical interactions between protected species and farms can increase the risk of injury and mortality. In 2020, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was identified as one of the first regions to be evaluated for offshore aquaculture opportunities as directed by a Presidential Executive Order. We developed a transparent and repeatable method to identify aquaculture opportunity areas (AOAs) with the least conflict with protected species. First, we developed a generalized scoring approach for protected species that captures their vulnerability to adverse effects from anthropogenic activities using conservation status and demographic information. Next, we applied this approach to data layers for eight species listed under the Endangered Species Act, including five species of sea turtles, Rice’s whale, smalltooth sawfish, and giant manta ray. Next, we evaluated four methods for mathematically combining scores (i.e., Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Product, Lowest Scoring layer) to generate a combined protected species data layer. The Product approach provided the most logical ordering of, and the greatest contrast in, site suitability scores. Finally, we integrated the combined protected species data layer into a multi-criteria decision-making modeling framework for MSP. This process identified AOAs with reduced potential for protected species conflict. These modeling methods are transferable to other regions, to other sensitive or protected species, and for spatial planning for other ocean-uses.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2015

Comparing methods for estimating larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) density in the St. Marys River for the purposes of control

The St. Marys River is a major producer of parasitic sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) to Lake Huron making it an important area for larval control. Bayluscide treatments are conducted in areas of high larval density requiring density estimation at fine spatial scales to inform treatment decisions. We evaluated six methods of estimating spatially specific density including the currently used sampling-based estimates, a generalized linear model (GLM) based on mean larval density per plot, a GLM based on larval density per sample, a generalized additive model based on mean larval density per plot, a spatial age-structured population model, and a hybrid approach, which averaged the best performing sampling- and model-based methods. Methods were evaluated based on accuracy in matching independent validation data. Specifically, the methods were evaluated based on their ability to project plot-level larval density, identify high density plots for treatment, and rank plots in order based on density resulting in high numbers of sea lampreys killed per hectare treated. Performance was variable, and no single method outperformed the others for all metrics. Although the sampling-based estimation method and the GLM based on catch data performed adequately for estimating density and identifying high density plots, the hybrid approach was identified as the best method to inform sea lamprey control decisions in the St. Marys River due to its consistent performance. Incorporating model-based approaches should lead to a more efficient and effective treatment program in the St. Marys River and aid in making decisions about the allocation of control resources.

St. Marys River↗

USGS2013

Natural-color and color-infrared image mosaics of the Colorado River corridor in Arizona derived from the May 2009 airborne image collection

The Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically collects airborne image data for the Colorado River corridor within Arizona (fig. 1) to allow scientists to study the impacts of Glen Canyon Dam water release on the corridor’s natural and cultural resources. These data are collected from just above Glen Canyon Dam (in Lake Powell) down to the entrance of Lake Mead, for a total distance of 450 kilometers (km) and within a 500-meter (m) swath centered on the river’s mainstem and its seven main tributaries (fig. 1). The most recent airborne data collection in 2009 acquired image data in four wavelength bands (blue, green, red, and near infrared) at a spatial resolution of 20 centimeters (cm). The image collection used the latest model of the Leica ADS40 airborne digital sensor (the SH52), which uses a single optic for all four bands and collects and stores band radiance in 12-bits. Davis (2012) reported on the performance of the SH52 sensor and on the processing steps required to produce the nearly flawless four-band image mosaic (sectioned into map tiles) for the river corridor. The final image mosaic has a total of only 3 km of surface defects in addition to some areas of cloud shadow because of persistent inclement weather during data collection. The 2009 four-band image mosaic is perhaps the best image dataset that exists for the entire Arizona part of the Colorado River. Some analyses of these image mosaics do not require the full 12-bit dynamic range or all four bands of the calibrated image database, in which atmospheric scattering (or haze) had not been removed from the four bands. To provide scientists and the general public with image products that are more useful for visual interpretation, the 12-bit image data were converted to 8-bit natural-color and color-infrared images, which also removed atmospheric scattering within each wavelength-band image. The conversion required an evaluation of the histograms of each band’s digital-number population within each map tile throughout the corridor and the determination of the digital numbers corresponding to the lower and upper one percent of the picture-element population within each map tile. Visual examination of the image tiles that were given a 1-percent stretch (whereby the lower 1- percent 12-bit digital number is assigned an 8-bit value of zero and the upper 1-percent 12-bit digital number is assigned an 8-bit value of 255) indicated that this stretch sufficiently removed atmospheric scattering, which provided improved image clarity and true natural colors for all surface materials. The lower and upper 1-percent, 12-bit digital numbers for each wavelength-band image in the image tiles exhibit erratic variations along the river corridor; the variations exhibited similar trends in both the lower and upper 1-percent digital numbers for all four wavelength-band images (figs. 2–5). The erratic variations are attributed to (1) daily variations in atmospheric water-vapor content due to monsoonal storms, (2) variations in channel water color due to variable sediment input from tributaries, and (3) variations in the amount of topographic shadows within each image tile, in which reflectance is dominated by atmospheric scattering. To make the surface colors of the stretched, 8-bit images consistent among adjacent image tiles, it was necessary to average both the lower and upper 1-percent digital values for each wavelength-band image over 20 river miles to subdue the erratic variations. The average lower and upper 1-percent digital numbers for each image tile (figs. 2–5) were used to convert the 12-bit image values to 8-bit values and the resulting 8-bit four-band images were stored as natural-color (red, green, and blue wavelength bands) and color-infrared (near-infrared, red, and green wavelength bands) images in embedded geotiff format, which can be read and used by most geographic information system (GIS) and image-processing software. The tiff world files (tfw) are provided, even though they are generally not needed for most software to read an embedded geotiff image. All image data are projected in the State Plane (SP) map projection using the central Arizona zone (202) and the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD83). The map-tile scheme used to segment the corridor image mosaic followed the standard USGS quarter-quadrangle (QQ) map borders, but the high resolution (20 cm) of the images required further quarter segmentation (QQQ) of the standard QQ tiles, where the image mosaic covered a large fraction of a QQ map tile (segmentation shown in (figure 6), where QQ_1 to QQ_4 shows the number convention used to designate a quarter of a QQ tile). To minimize the size of each image tile, each image or map tile was subset to only include that part of the tile that had image data. In addition, some QQQ image tiles within a QQ tile were combined when adjacent QQQ map tiles were small. Thus, some image tiles consist of combinations of QQQ map tiles, some consist of an entire QQ map tile, and some consist of two adjoining QQ map tiles. The final image tiles number 143, which is a large number of files to list on the Internet for both the natural-color and color-infrared images. Thus, the image tiles were placed in seven file folders based on the one-half-degree geographic boundaries within the study area (fig. 7). The map tiles in each file folder were compressed to minimize folder size for more efficient downloading. The file folders are sequentially referred to as zone 1 through zone 7, proceeding down river (fig. 7). The QQ designations of the image tiles contained within each folder or zone are shown on the index map for each respective zone (figs. 8–14).

Arizona↗

USGS2014

Estimated 2012 groundwater potentiometric surface and drawdown from predevelopment to 2012 in the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the Albuquerque metropolitan area, central New Mexico

Historically, the water-supply requirements of the Albuquerque metropolitan area of central New Mexico were met almost exclusively by groundwater withdrawal from the Santa Fe Group aquifer system. In response to water-level declines, the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (ABCWUA) began diverting water from the San Juan-Chama Drinking Water Project in December 2008 to reduce the use of groundwater to meet municipal demand. Modifications in the demand for water and the source of the supply of water for the Albuquerque metropolitan area have resulted in a variable response in the potentiometric surface of the production zone (the interval of the aquifer, from within about 200 feet below the water table to 900 feet or more, in which supply wells generally are screened) of the Santa Fe Group aquifer system. Analysis of the magnitude and spatial distribution of water-level change can help improve the understanding of how the groundwater system responds to withdrawals and variations in the management of the water supply and can support water-management agencies’ efforts to minimize future water-level declines and improve sustainability. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the ABCWUA, has developed an estimate of the 2012 potentiometric surface of the production zone of the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the Albuquerque metropolitan area. This potentiometric surface is the latest in a series of reports depicting the potentiometric surface of the area. This report presents the estimated potentiometric surface during winter (from December to March) of water year 2012 and the estimated changes in potentiometric surface between predevelopment (pre-1961) and water year 2012 for the production zone of the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the Albuquerque metropolitan area. Hydrographs from selected piezometers are included to provide details of historical water-level changes. In general, water-level measurements used for this report were collected in small-diameter observation wells screened over short intervals near the middle of the production zone and were considered to best represent the potentiometric head in the production zone. The water-level measurements were collected by various local and Federal agencies. The water year 2012 potentiometric surface map was created in a geographic information system, and the change in water-level altitude from predevelopment to water year 2012 was calculated. The 2012 potentiometric surface indicates that the general direction of groundwater flow is from the Rio Grande towards clusters of supply wells in the east, north, and west. Water-level changes from predevelopment to 2012 were variable across the Albuquerque metropolitan area. Estimated drawdown from 2008 was spatially variable across the Albuquerque metropolitan area. Hydrographs from piezometers on the east side of the river indicate an increase in the annual highest water-level measurement from 2008 to 2012. Hydrographs from piezometers in the northwest part of the study area indicate either steady decline of the water-level altitude over the period of record or recently variable trends in which water-level altitudes increased for a number of years but have declined since water year 2012.

New Mexico↗

USGS2025

The story of the Penobscot River Ecology Mural: A 10-step process for scientists to create public art

Rivers are home to a wide variety of biota, including fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, freshwater mussels, aquatic insects, and microscopic organisms that fill unique niches to support broader ecosystem functions. While the general public may be aware of recreationally relevant biological life (e.g., fishes and insects to model flyfishing flies from), they may not be aware of more obscure yet important taxa. For example, freshwater mussels (Unionidae) improve water quality and clarity of rivers through filtration ( Vaughn, 2018), which is vital to riverine ecosystems. Despite this importance, lack of public knowledge about freshwater mussels is the second biggest challenge to their management ( Bouska et al., 2018). How do we best get the public to see value in underappreciated taxa to support their conservation? Public art installations can spread awareness about science effectively because they distill information for broader audiences, are eye-catching, and reach people through an emotional, aesthetic, and personal lens ( Thompson et al., 2023). While invertebrates are generally viewed by the public with fear and aversion ( Kellert, 1993) this can be ameliorated through interaction and learning, particularly for children ( Miller et al., 2025). Through cross-disciplinary collaboration between artists, scientists and the local community, we created the “Penobscot River Ecology Mural,” a scientifically informed artwork featuring underappreciated taxa like mussels and insects. In this article, we will elucidate the story of how we successfully made this piece through 10 steps, which provide a blueprint for future endeavors.

Maine↗

USGS2021

General water-quality conditions, long-term trends, and network analysis at selected sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, water years 1993–2017

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. Established in 1964, the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network (AWQMN) consisted of 69 sites in 2017. Two additional sites from the National Water-Quality Program are included with the AWQMN sites for the analyses in this report. The sites are sampled typically from 2 to 12 times per year for physical properties, total suspended solids, nutrients, fecal indicator bacteria, and trace elements. The period of analysis for this study was from 1993 through 2017 and data analysis included 71 sites and 15 water-quality constituents plus discharge. Data analysis involved retrieving the data, conditioning the data for analysis, analyzing the data for trends, and analyzing the monitoring network to determine if potential data gaps or data redundancies exist in the network. Results from these analyses can be used to help manage the monitoring network into the future. Water-quality data were analyzed using several software packages to provide graphical and statistical information for interpretation of trends in the data at selected sites. Discharge data at selected sites were analyzed to determine the general trends during the analysis period and how the water-quality samples represented the range of daily mean discharges at each site. Water-quality data also were analyzed at selected sites to determine the relative sensitivity of selected sites and constituents to changes in data collection frequency. Trend analysis at selected sites using a simulated reduction in sampling frequency was completed to compare to trends obtained using monthly data to determine the potential degradation in the ability of determining trends from a reduced sampling frequency. The viability of using estimated discharge to evaluate long-term trends for sites with no continuous discharge was investigated. Data from sites were statistically compared in groups to determine the relative similarity (or difference) between sites for each water-quality constituent to identify potentially redundant sites in the monitoring network. Discharge-weighted long-term trends during 1993 through 2017 were analyzed for 15 water-quality constituents at 58 sites and results indicated there were significant single- or two-period trends in about 17 percent of the analyses. Some trends indicated improvement and some trends indicated deterioration of the general water quality at some sites in the AWQMN. No trend was indicated in about 31 percent of the analyses. The constituents pH, specific conductance, and total phosphorus showed the most frequent significant trends, and each of the 15 constituents examined had a significant trend at one or more sites. A total of 42 sites indicated at least 1 constituent with a significant single- or two-period trend, and 10 sites indicated 6 or more significant trends. Potential data gaps identified for computing discharge-weighted long-term trends in the monitoring network included the lack of collection of continuous discharge at 23 sites, insufficient sampling frequency for some constituents (dissolved chloride and total and dissolved lead and zinc) at some sites, insufficient temporal sample distribution (lack of at least one sample in each season per year) at some sites, and insufficient sampling frequency for some highly censored constituents (nutrients and total and dissolved lead and zinc) at some sites. Potential data gaps based on site spatial distribution were identified in 7 basins greater than 800 square miles. Potential site redundancies were identified in 4 basins that had an area greater than 500 square miles with a site density greater than 2 sites per 1,000 square miles. Potential site redundancies also were identified for nine site pairs by observing statistical similarities in the constituent data distributions. Sampling frequency was investigated to determine if reducing the sampling frequency of select constituents could provide a statistically similar data distribution. At 28 of 71 sites, 11 constituents had sufficient data collection frequency (approximately monthly) to allow for the creation of simulated datasets of various reduced data collection frequency. For the selected monitoring network sites analyzed, the data distribution of a simulated sampling frequency of four times per year or greater, roughly evenly distributed over the year, was not significantly different than the data distribution of the original monthly sampling frequency. Sites analyzed using varying simulated sampling frequencies tended to be more sensitive to sampling frequency changes if they were in basins classified as large or very large size and tended to be least sensitive in basins classified as small and medium size in the Ozark Plateaus Province. Simulated reduced frequency sampling analysis indicated that the constituents and measurements most sensitive to changes in sampling frequencies were water temperature, dissolved oxygen, discharge, and dissolved nitrate, and least sensitive were pH, total suspended solids, dissolved phosphorus, and total phosphorus. Discharge-weighted long-term trend analysis was repeated at 22 sites for 11 constituents using a simulated quarterly sampling frequency, and matched about 46 percent of the significant single-period trends identified using monthly data and about 65 percent of the analyses that indicated no trend using the monthly data.

Missouri↗

USGS2022

Conservation under uncertainty: Innovations in participatory climate change scenario planning from U.S. national parks

The impacts of climate change (CC) on natural and cultural resources are far-reaching and complex. A major challenge facing resource managers is not knowing the exact timing and nature of those impacts. To confront this problem, scientists, adaptation specialists, and resource managers have begun to use scenario planning (SP). This structured process identifies a small set of scenarios—descriptions of potential future conditions that encompass the range of critical uncertainties—and uses them to inform planning. We reflect on a series of five recent participatory CC SP projects at four US National Park Service units and derive guidelines for using CC SP to support natural and cultural resource conservation. Specifically, we describe how these engagements affected management, present a generalized CC SP approach grounded in management priorities, and share key insights and innovations that (1) fostered participant confidence and deep engagement in the participatory CC SP process, (2) shared technical information in a way that encouraged informed, effective participation, (3) contextualized CC SP in the broader picture of relevant longstanding or emerging nonclimate stressors, (4) incorporated quantitative approaches to expand analytical capacity and assess qualitative findings, and (5) translated scenarios and all their complexity into strategic action.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2005

Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Risk Analysis↗

USGS2012

Hatching and fledging times from grassland passerine nests

1 day and was positively correlated with clutch size. Length of the fledging period for a brood was usually <1 day, and in nearly half the nests, fledging was completed within <2 hr. Video surveillance has proven to be a useful tool for providing new information and for corroborating published statements related to hatching and fledging chronology. Comparison of data collected from video and nest visits showed that carefully conducted nest visits generally can provide reliable data for deriving estimates of survival."}" data-sheets-userformat="{"2":8403202,"4":[null,2,16777215],"11":4,"14":[null,2,0],"15":"Inconsolata, monospace, arial, sans, sans-serif","16":11,"26":400}" data-sheets-formula="=VLOOKUP(R[0]C[-5],Fixed!R2C[-6]:C[-4],3,false)">Accurate estimates of fledging age are needed in field studies to avoid inducing premature fledging or missing the fledging event. Both may lead to misinterpretation of nest fate. Correctly assessing nest fate and length of the nestling period can be critical for accurate calculation of nest survival rates. For researchers who mark nestlings, knowing the age at which their activities may cause young to leave nests prematurely could prevent introducing bias to their studies. We obtained estimates of fledging age using data from grassland bird nests monitored from hatching through fledging with video-surveillance systems in North Dakota and Minnesota during 1996–2001. We compared these values to those obtained from traditional nest visits and from available literature. Mean and modal fledging ages for video-monitored nests were generally similar to those for visited nests, although Clay-colored Sparrows (Spizella pallida) typically fledged 1 day earlier from visited nests. Average fledging ages from both video and nest visits occurred within ranges reported in the literature, but expanded by 1–2 days the upper age limit for Clay-colored Sparrows and the lower age limit for Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus). Video showed that eggs hatched throughout the day whereas most young fledged in the morning (06:30–12:30 CDT). Length of the hatching period for a clutch was usually >1 day and was positively correlated with clutch size. Length of the fledging period for a brood was usually <1 day, and in nearly half the nests, fledging was completed within <2 hr. Video surveillance has proven to be a useful tool for providing new information and for corroborating published statements related to hatching and fledging chronology. Comparison of data collected from video and nest visits showed that carefully conducted nest visits generally can provide reliable data for deriving estimates of survival.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

USGS2006

The World Coal Quality Inventory: South America

Executive Summary-Introduction: The concepts of a global environment and economy are strongly and irrevocably linked to global energy issues. Worldwide coal production and international coal trade are projected to increase during the next several decades in an international energy mix that is still strongly dependent on fossil fuels. Therefore, worldwide coal use will play an increasingly visible role in global environmental, economic, and energy forums. Policy makers require information on coal, including coal quality data, to make informed decisions regarding domestic coal resource allocation, import needs and export opportunities, foreign policy objectives, technology transfer policies, foreign investment prospects, environmental and health assessments, and byproduct use and disposal issues. The development of a worldwide, reliable, coal quality database would help ensure the most economically and environmentally efficient global use of coal. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with many agencies and scientists from the world's coal producing countries, originally undertook a project to obtain representative samples of coal from most of the world's producing coal provinces during a limited period of time (roughly 1998-2005), which is called the World Coal Quality Inventory (WoCQI). The multitude of producing coal mines, coal occurrences, or limited accessibility to sites in some countries can preclude collecting more than a single sample from a mine. In some areas, a single sample may represent an entire coal mining region or basin. Despite these limitations in sampling and uneven distribution of sample collection, the analytical results can still provide a general overview of world coal quality. The USGS intends to present the WoCQI data in reports and, when possible, in Geographic Information System (GIS) products that cover important coal bearing and producing regions.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2004

Surficial materials in the conterminous United States

Introduction: The Earth's bedrock is overlain in many places by a loosely compacted and mostly unconsolidated blanket of sediments in which soils commonly are developed. These sediments generally were eroded from underlying rock, and then were transported and deposited. In places, they exceed 1,000 ft (330 m) in thickness. Where the sediment blanket is absent, bedrock is either exposed or has been weathered to produce a residual soil. This map shows the sediments and the weathered, residual material; for ease of discussion, these are referred to here as 'surficial materials.' Certain areas on this map include a significant number of rock outcrops, which cannot be shown at the scale of the map; this is noted in the 'Description of Map Units' section. Most daily human activities occur on or near the Earth's surface. Homeowners, communities, and governments can make improved decisions about hazard, resource, and environmental issues, when they understand the nature of surficial materials and how they vary from place to place. For example, are the surficial materials upon which a home is built stable enough to resist subsidence or lateral movement during an earthquake? Do these materials support a ground water resource adequate for new homes? Can they adequately filter contaminants and protect buried aquifers both in underlying sediments and in bedrock? Are they suitable for development of a new wetland? Where can we find materials suitable for aggregate? The USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP) works with the State geological surveys to identify priority areas for mapping of surficial materials (for example, in areas of complex and poorly understood deposits of various sediment types, where metropolitan areas are experiencing rapid growth). To help establish these priorities, a modern, synoptic overview of the geology is needed. This map represents an overview of our current knowledge of the composition and distribution of surficial materials in the conterminous United States. (The map covers only the conterminous U.S. because similar geologic information in digital form was not readily available for Alaska and Hawaii.) The best available map has been a highly generalized depiction at 1:7,500,000-scale (about 120 miles to the inch), prepared for the USGS National Atlas (Hunt, 1979; 1986). This map is compiled at a slightly more detailed scale (about 80 miles to the inch) than Hunt (1979; 1986). We used digital methods, which enabled us to rapidly incorporate the variety of source maps available to us. State-scale geologic maps from the western United States were brought directly into this map, without expending the time needed to resolve interpretive differences among them. Therefore, abrupt changes in surficial materials are indicated along many State boundaries. This of course is an artifact of our compilation technique, and a limitation on its utility. However, this approach supports the basic premise of the map -- to provide an overview of surficial materials, and to identify areas where additional work may be needed in order to resolve scientific issues that can, in turn, lead to improved mapping.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1975

Estimates of temperature and precipitation for northeastern Utah

Estimates of temperature and precipitation were made for northeastern Utah from information that was collected at 67 locations. The variable-length records were converted to the common-time base of 1941-70; then general relations were developed to extend the converted point values to unsampled sites. Regression techniques were used to fill voids in the temperature-data base. Incomplete precipitation records were adjusted to the 1941-70 average on the assumption that the ratio of concurrent data is directly proportional to the ratio of the respective 1941-70 average annual values at nearby sites. Equations were then developed through a computer program to express the relationship of temperature and precipitation with altitude and location and to extend the information to unsampled sites. Two-thirds of the observed and estimated average annual temperature and precipitation values are within ±1.5°F (1.0°C) and 2.08 in (53 mm), respectively, of the calculated averages. Schematic diagrams, plotted by computer, were prepared to show variations of altitude, temperature, and precipitation; and maps, also plotted by computer, show lines of equal altitude, precipitation, and temperature.

Utah↗