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USGS2025

Forecast, monitor, adapt: A multi-agency strategy to protect people from postfire debris flows

In 2020, a wildfire burned across Glenwood Canyon in Colorado, USA. A history of postfire debris flows in the region and a hazard assessment for the burn area indicated that potentially life-threatening debris flows could be triggered by rainfall within months of a wildfire. As a result, four government agencies evaluated strategies to help mitigate hazards, including the loss of human life, that may be associated with debris-flow events. After the fire, 26 large debris flows occurred in the summer of 2021 and three sediment-laden flows occurred in the summer of 2023, but there were no major injuries or fatalities reported. We found that integrating hazard assessment/ forecasting, monitoring, and adaptation scenarios was a successful strategy for reducing postfire debris-flow risks to human life (including injuries and fatalities). Weather forecasts and estimates of debris-flow triggering rainfall thresholds, likelihood, and volume were used to anticipate the timing, location, and magnitude of debris-flow events. Rainfall monitoring and detailed recordkeeping of storms that triggered debris flows were used to validate and update debris-flow warning thresholds that varied with time following the wildfire. Although the governmental agencies working in this burn area had distinct and differing agency mandates, they were able to integrate information to reduce the risk of debris-flow events to human life.

Colorado↗

USGS2026

Evidence for a biological origin of uranium-rich carbon masses within the Ediacaran Salt Range Formation of Pakistan

Thucholites are unique organic structures found in igneous and sedimentary rocks composed of a U-C-rich interior enclosed by an organic outer shell. Their formation and occurrence have perplexed scientists for over 100 years. Typically, thucholites are sparse in sedimentary rocks but where found in abundance, they may be the result of rapid paleoecological disruptions, e.g., volcanic ashfall. Here, we evaluated thucholites from the Ediacaran Salt Range Formation of the Indus Basin in Pakistan using field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) and nanoscale secondary ion mass spectroscopy (NanoSIMS) to propose a two-stage mechanism for thucholite development. NanoSIMS results suggest organic matter in thucholite cores formed by biological fractionation (represented by the presence of lighter 13 C/ 12 C and 34 S/ 32 S) while the outer organic mantle formed via radiolysis-induced polymerization. FESEM elemental analysis confirms compositional differences between the two thucholite components (core and mantle), further implying their contrasting origins. Dimensional comparison of thucholite cores and their U-bearing mineral morphologies to ancient and modern U-biomineralized microbes suggests that the thucholite cores formed from metal-biological interactions. The presence of volcanogenic biotite, alkali feldspar, and clay spherules (interpreted as devitrified volcanic glass) with thucholite suggests that the thucholite cores in the Salt Range Formation are biological responses to rapid paleoenvironmental change from volcanic eruption which preserved the fossilized morphologies of Proterozoic microorganisms.

Salt Range↗

USGS2025

Using gridded seismicity to forecast the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded (or background) seismicity models are a critical component of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, accounting for off‐fault and smaller‐magnitude earthquakes. They are typically developed by declustering and spatially smoothing an earthquake catalog to estimate a long‐term seismicity rate that can be used to forecast future earthquakes. Here, we present new gridded seismicity models for use in the 2025 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The previous PRVI NSHM was released in 2003, and our new models incorporate updates to both data and methodology. We utilize an updated earthquake catalog based on improved Puerto Rico Seismic Network data with newly characterized completeness epochs. The catalog is divided into crustal, subduction interface, and intraslab seismicity using new methods and Slab2 subduction zone geometries. To forecast the long‐term spatial distribution of earthquakes, we use an updated methodology developed for the 2023 U.S. 50‐state NSHM, considering three declustering methods and two spatial smoothing methods based on 2D Gaussian kernels. To adapt it for the complex seismotectonics of the region, we also adopt probabilistic methods to account for events with unknown depths and uncertainties in tectonic classification, and develop a new method for spatial scaling to counteract the effects of spatial variability in network coverage while maintaining the use of smaller events. Finally, we test the performance of these spatial models in forecasting the location of M w ≥ 5earthquakes in the region. Our updated methodology improves the representation of epistemic uncertainty relative to the 2003 model, and our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the new measures we have introduced to address heterogeneities in network detection and systematically evaluate forecast performance.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

USGS2026

Site response models based on geometric parameters for southern California sedimentary basins

Site response in sedimentary basins is influenced by complex three-dimensional (3D) features, including trapping of seismic waves, focusing of seismic energy and basin resonance. Current ground motion models (GMMs) incorporate basin effects using one-dimensional parameters like V S30 and shear wave velocity isosurface depths, which are limited in capturing lateral and 3D effects. To address these limitations, we develop seismic site response models based on novel parameters that represent multi-dimensional properties of the Los Angeles Basin (LAB) geometry and shear wave velocity. We define a basin shape for the LAB using depth to subsurface geologic interfaces associated with the oldest sedimentary deposits (depth to a particular shear wave velocity horizon, i.e., 1.5 km/s - z 1.5 ) and the depth to the crystalline basement ( z cb ) which are determined using geologic cross sections and community seismic velocity model profiles. We explore a suite of geometric descriptors computed for the LAB and southern California, from which three parameters with the greatest predictive potential are selected and evaluated using empirical ground motion residual analyses in combination with the Boore et al. GMM. The results demonstrate that the zonal heterogeneity index ( ), standard deviation of the absolute difference between z 1.5 and z cb ( ) and standard deviation of z cb ( ) each provide a reduction in site-to-site variability ( ϕ S2S ) of empirical GMMs. The reduction in ϕ S2S is period-dependent, with average decreases of 3%, 26% and 6% for , , and , respectively. Although these reductions are modest from an engineering application perspective, they are statistically significant, underscoring the inherent difficulty in fully characterising complex basin effects. Collectively, these findings indicate that the inclusion of basin-specific geometric parameters yields measurable, albeit incremental, improvements in site response prediction and establishes a framework for the progressive refinement of seismic hazard characterisation within sedimentary basins.

California↗

USGS2025

Geologic map of the Greater Antilles and Virgin Islands

Introduction The geologic map of the Greater Antilles and Virgin Islands is a compilation of information from the literature, integrated to provide a seamless geologic map of the region. This map was prepared to serve as a base map for a mineral resource assessment of the region. Several small-scale regional geologic maps of the region have been prepared in the past. This report supersedes an earlier version of the geologic map of the Greater Antilles and the Virgin Islands that was released as U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File Report 2019–1036. For this report, the regional geologic overview shown on sheet 1 covers Cuba; the island of Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and Dominican Republic; Jamaica; the Cayman Islands; Puerto Rico; and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Sheet 2 shows the geology of Cuba and Cayman Islands, sheet 3 the geology of Jamaica, sheet 4 the geology of Hispaniola, and sheet 5 the geology of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Accompanying the maps are three tables: table 1 lists the map units (in alphabetical order by map-unit label), their ages, and the countries or territories in which they can be found. These are listed in alphabetical order for ease in locating unit names from the symbols on the maps. Table 2 is a list of sources for the geologic map compilation of Puerto Rico. Table 3 shows formations in the Devil’s Race Course Group of Jamaica.

Greater Antilles, Virgin Islands↗

USGS2026

GST-1: A high-resolution global sediment thickness model

Global Sediment Thickness 1 (GST-1) is a high-resolution sedimentary thickness model calculated on a 0.125° x 0.125° grid. It modifies the sediment thickness of the 1° x 1° Earth Crustal Model 1 (ECM1) by means of 3D inversions of free air gravity anomalies. GST-1 is calculated by performing structural inversions on high-density contrasts across two crustal boundaries: the sediment – basement interface and the crystalline crust – upper mantle interface. The inversions are calculated in each of ten overlapping 3D models that span the globe. These ten models are merged to obtain the GST-1 global model, providing an eight-fold increase in lateral spatial resolution in comparison with ECM1 and CRUST 1.0. Our sediment thickness model exploits the nearly continuous sampling of gravity data when compared to the irregular, sparse sampling of seismic refraction data. Sediment thickness values in GST-1 are in excellent agreement with independently derived cross sections from well-studied sedimentary basins, and within expected resolution limits of seismic refraction data. GST-1 offers a robust, high resolution global model of sedimentary thickness to support studies of sedimentary basins.

Tectonophysics↗

USGS2025

Geologic map of MTM −15032 and −20032 quadrangles, western Ladon basin, Mars

Our mapping efforts focused on the geomorphic terrains and geologic units contained within Mars Transverse Mercator (MTM) −15032 and −20032 quadrangles. These two quadrangles are located along the west side of Ladon basin and span lat −12.5° N. to −22.5° N. and long 325° E. to 330° E. The western part of Ladon basin and its bounding basin ring structures to the west preserved features that help to understand the long history of drainage across the Margaritifer Terra region of Mars. Our geologic map provides new insight into the extent of aqueous activity across western Ladon basin and the adjoining highlands, which includes the northern part of Ladon Valles, Arda Valles, numerous small valleys in the western highlands, and light-toned layered deposits associated with these fluvial features. The Mars Odyssey Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) infrared (IR) daytime mosaic (100 meters per pixel) was used as the primary base map. We constructed the geologic map of western Ladon basin at 1:1,000,000 scale. We identified 20 geologic units in the map area, which we divided into the following groups: crater units; volcanic units; chaotic units; basin fill units; crater, valley, and channel units; and plateau and highlands units. We observed the following sequence of events: (1) formation of Ladon and Holden impact basins in the middle Noachian, producing a mountainous unit; (2) landscape degradation and infilling during the Late Noachian to Late Hesperian forming terra units; (3) formation of Ladon Valles in the Late Noachian to Early Hesperian by catastrophic flooding, producing channel units; (4) accumulation of sediments in the Late Noachian to Early Amazonian, forming basin fill units; (5) formation of a smooth crater fill unit during the Early to Late Hesperian; (6) deposition during the Late Hesperian to Early Amazonian, creating light-toned layered units within Ladon Valles, Ladon basin, and other smaller valley networks along the western uplands, as well as formation of a light-toned unit along some crater floors; (7) formation a of chaotic unit in the Early to Middle Amazonian, formation of alluvial fans in the Early Amazonian, and eruption of a volcanic unit in the Middle Amazonian; and (8) formation of craters throughout the geologic history of the map region.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2024

Are the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios of earthquakes and microtremors the same?

We consider the similarities and differences between earthquake and microtremor horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios (eHVSR and mHVSR, respectively) using a dataset of 161 sites in southern California. Quantitative comparisons are made in terms of the eHVSR and mHVSR lognormal median curves, as well as the frequencies and amplitudes associated with the fundamental‐ and higher‐mode resonances where present. The results show only 58% of the eHVSR–mHVSR pairs agree in terms of their median curve and only 25% of the eHVSR–mHVSR pairs agree in terms of shared resonances, which increases to 68% if flat HVSRs are considered equivalent. Furthermore, while the shared resonances match very well in terms of frequency (root mean square error, RMSE, <0.11 Hz), the amplitudes of those resonances do not agree (RMSE >1.6). These findings demonstrate that while eHVSR and mHVSR agree at some sites, they are not equivalent at all sites. To investigate if the agreement between eHVSR and mHVSR could be related to features of the microtremor data, earthquake recordings, and/or the site conditions, three machine learning (ML) models at varying levels of interpretability are presented. The ML models—which include multivariate logistic regression, gradient‐boosted trees, and support vector machines—show only partial success at using site‐specific data to predict whether eHVSR and mHVSR will likely agree in terms of their median curve (accuracy of 78%) and number of resonances (accuracy of 84%). Therefore, we conclude that while eHVSR and mHVSR can be quite similar in terms of resonant frequencies at some sites, they are not identical at all sites. Furthermore, preliminary evidence shows that the agreement of eHVSR and mHVSR can be predicted a priori given features of the microtremor measurements, earthquake recordings, and site conditions, although a larger dataset will be necessary for developing a robust predictive model.

California↗

USGS2025

Carbonatite-hosted residual REE deposits

Rare earth elements (REEs) occur in magmatic rocks but are especially enriched in carbonatite and alkaline silicates. If these rocks are chemically weathered, then the REEs may become further enriched within the regolith developed from these rocks. Primary magmatic REE minerals, as well as the various carbonate minerals and apatite, provide the REEs which, under pervasive chemical weathering, are incorporated within low-temperature REE minerals forming within the regolith. Many of these minerals, as well as their textures, are characteristic of this mode of formation. Lateritic conditions of weathering are instrumental in producing a thick, weathered, or regolith, profile, and the roles of sulfide oxidation, fluctuating groundwater tables, and downward mass wasting due to carbonate dissolution are identified as the most important controls on REE enrichment in the regolith.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Preface to the focus section on earthquake-induced ground deformation

Ground failure due to earthquake-induced liquefaction, surface fault rupture, and landsliding has caused substantial damage in the past and continues to pose risks to critical infrastructure in the future. The consideration of ground failure is central to engineering analysis and design, ranging from site-specific engineering assessments of ground failure potential to broader regional-scale ground failure assessments of near-real-time earthquake impacts or longer-term portfolio risk. Uncertainties in all aspects of the problem complicate the prediction of earthquake-induced ground failure, including the identification of hazard-susceptible geomaterials, characterizing their spatial extent and physical properties, spatio-temporal variability in groundwater conditions, characterization of earthquake ground motions, assessing ground failure severity, and linking ground failure severity to infrastructure damage and loss.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2025

Pathways for potential exposure to onshore oil and gas wastewater: What we need to know to protect human health

Produced water is a chemically complex waste stream generated during oil and gas development. Roughly four trillion liters were generated onshore in the United States in 2021 (ALL Consulting, 2022, https://www.gwpc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2021_Produced_Water_Volumes.pdf ). Efforts are underway to expand historic uses of produced water to offset freshwater needs in water-stressed regions, avoid induced seismic activity associated with its disposal, and extract commodities. Understanding the potential exposures from current and proposed produced water uses and management practices can help to inform health-protective practices. This review summarizes what is known about potential human exposure to produced water from onshore oil and gas development in the United States. We synthesize 236 publications to create a conceptual model of potential human exposure that illustrates the current state of scientific inquiry and knowledge. Exposure to produced water can occur following its release to the environment through spills or leaks during its handling and management. Exposure can also arise from authorized releases, including permitted discharges to surface water, crop irrigation, and road treatment. Knowledge gaps include understanding the variable composition and toxicity of produced water released to the environment, the performance of treatment methods, migration pathways through the environment that can result in human exposure, and the significance of the exposures for human and ecosystem health. Reducing these uncertainties may help in realizing the benefits of produced water use while simultaneously protecting human health.

Environmental Health Perspectives↗

USGS2026

Stepovers and beyond: Structural control of The Geysers geothermal system and the broader Clear Lake region

Fault geometry exerts a first-order control on geothermal systems by governing stress localization, fracture development, and permeability, yet in complex fault networks or broader shear zones, the relative influence of individual geometric features is often difficult to resolve. In the northern California Coast Ranges, The Geysers geothermal field is commonly interpreted to occur within a releasing stepover, although no single, clearly defined stepover is identified in published studies. To investigate the structural controls on The Geysers and the broader Clear Lake region, a two-dimensional elastic boundary element model is developed to evaluate spatial patterns of dilational strain associated with progressively more complete fault geometries. Model results show that dilation in the region is not controlled by a single structure but instead reflects the combined effects of multiple interacting fault elements. Three primary controls are identified: (1) opposing bends in the regional strike-slip fault system, including a releasing bend along the Maacama fault; (2) the southern fault tip of the Collayomi fault, which generates a prominent dilational lobe beneath the southern Geysers; and (3) a releasing stepover between the Collayomi fault and the Geyser Peak–Mercuryville–Big Sulphur Creek fault system, inferred to collectively behave as a right-lateral shear zone bounding the western margin of The Geysers. Predicted dilational strain magnitudes are sufficient to localize permeability between faults. These results highlight that incorporating complete fault networks and bedrock geological mapping can enhance geothermal assessments and provide a transferable framework for evaluating structurally controlled permeability in tectonically active regions.

California↗

USGS2025

Evidence for fluid pressurization of fault zones and persistent sensitivity to injection rate beneath the Raton Basin

Subsurface wastewater injection has increased the seismicity rate within the Raton Basin over more than two decades, with the basin-wide injection rate peaked between 2009-2015. To understand the evolution of injection-induced earthquakes, we systematically analyzed 2016-2024 broadband recordings with a machine-learning-based phase picker and constructed a catalog with 95,993 earthquakes (-1≤ M L ≤4.3). We then inverted for full centroid moment tensors (CMT) for 90 M L ≥ 2 events, with a special interest in constraining the non-double-couple components via probabilistic metrics. Both relocations and CMT solutions support basement-rooted normal faults, including graben and half-graben structures. Furthermore, we observe the non-double-couple components that imply elevated pore pressure in the fault zones. An earthquake cluster emerged in the north-central basin in 2023, preceded by ~1-yr of increased injection volume from wells within 15km. Despite a basin-wide decrease in the injection volume, we highlights the persistence of seismicity that remains to sensitive to injection rates within the Raton Basin.

Colorado, New Mexico↗

USGS1995

Water-quality assessment of the Ozark Plateaus study unit, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma: Analysis of information on nutrients, suspended sediment, and suspended solids, 1970-92

Water-quality data collected during water years 1970-90 (October 1 to September 30) for 83 surface-water sites and during 1970-92 for 395 ground-water sites in the 48,000 square mile Ozark Plateaus study unit of the National Water Quality Assessment Program were analyzed using selected descriptive and statistical methods. The water- quality data include nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus), suspended sediment, and suspended- solids data, and ancillary information such as fertilizer use, animal waste, sewage treatment plant, and land use. Statistically significant differences exist in surface-water quality that can be attributed to physiography, land use, and other effects. The sites that were considered to be substantially affected by sewage treatment plants had the largest concentrations of nutrients. Nutrient concentrations generally were larger at sites associated with agricultural basins than at sites associated with forested basins. Statistically significant differences existed in the quality of ground water that can be attributed to hydrogeologic and land-use effects. Nutrient concentrations generally were largest where the water source is indicated to be shallow in origin and where parts of the hydrogeologic units are in agricultural land-use areas. Water quality has changed at several surface-water sites since 1970. Nutrient concentrations appear to have increased at some sites and decreased at other sites. Causes of these apparent trends are not known, but many of the sites with apparent trends are in agricultural areas. Surface-water loads of nutrients and suspended sediment were affected by several factors including streamflow, climate, drainage area, reservoir operation, and inputs from point and nonpoint sources. Annual loads were largest in large basins, with large inputs of nutrients or sediment during periods of high streamflows at locations where reservoir operation effects are not substantial.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS2025

Hydrogeology of unconsolidated and bedrock aquifers along the Salmon River, including Malone, Franklin County, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, investigated the hydrogeology of the unconsolidated and bedrock aquifers along the Salmon River corridor in northern Franklin County, New York. The study area covers roughly 147 square miles and includes the village of Malone and parts of the Towns of Malone, Bellmont, Burke, Constable, Westville, Bangor, Duane, and Franklin, New York. Groundwater is the primary source for water supply within the study area. Eighty-three percent of all residents use public water supplied from two production wells that draw water from a thick, highly productive sand-and-gravel aquifer likely receiving induced infiltration from the Salmon River. Twenty-four percent of the 187 verified domestic wells in the study area outside of the production well service area boundary are screened in typically discontinuous deposits of stratified sand and sand and gravel. Seventy-six percent of the wells are completed in bedrock aquifers including the Potsdam Sandstone, metamorphic rocks, Theresa Formation, and unknown bedrock. Characterizing and understanding potential groundwater resources is critical for protecting the quality of the groundwater. The information in this report may be used to guide delineation of groundwater contributing areas, assess potential threats to aquifers from both point and nonpoint sources, respond to contamination from spills or leaks from underground storage facilities or other sources, and to support assessments for future development of municipal water supplies.

New York↗

USGS1986

Water-quality appraisal of NASQAN stations below impoundments, eastern Tennessee

The National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) is a network of stations at which systematic and continuing water-quality data are collected. Major objectives of this U.S. Geological Survey program are (1) to depict areal variability of streamflow and water-quality conditions nationwide on a year-by-year basis and (2) to detect long-term changes in streamflow and stream quality. Several NASQAN stations in East Tennessee are downstream from impoundments which have a significant effect on water quality. NASQAN data obtained from the Tennessee River below Watts Bar Dam and the Clinch River below Melton Hill Dam were compared to water-quality data from the basins upstream. The comparison indicates that NASQAN data obtained below impoundment may not be adequate to describe a composite picture of water quality in the accounting unit. Detention time of storage in the impoundments is believed to moderate the range of constituent values observed at the NASQAN stations. Data obtained upstream and downstream from Watts Bar Dam indicate that the water sampled at the NASQAN station comes from stratified layers of the impoundment and is not representative of an integrated sample of water from the impoundment. Values of total recoverable iron suggest that, because of adsorption to sediments in impoundments, some constituents are not accurately described by sampling below impoundments. Relations between water-quality constituents and flow at stations on the Clinch River and Tennessee River are not well defined due to regulation. Direct load computations for many constituents were therefore not possible, which diminished the utility of data from these NASQAN stations to account for quantity versus quality of the water. Load computations were only possible for ionic constituents through use of a continuous specific-conductance record as an intermediary. Compensation for the effects of discharge prior to application of the Seasonal Kendall test for trends could not be done and identification of trends in water-quality constituents caused by some process (source) change was not possible. Some water-quality trends indicated by data from the Clinch and Tennessee Rivers might reflect the decreasing trend in discharge during the 1972-82 water years. Thus the stations below Watts Bar Dam and below Melton Hill Dam do not adequately meet the NASQAN objective to detect and assess long-term changes in stream quality.

Tennessee↗

USGS2025

Hydrogeologic characterization of the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley Groundwater Basins, Riverside County, California

The relation between the groundwater and the amount of natural recharge to the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins is not well understood. During the 20th century, the reliance on groundwater near Anza, California, used for agricultural, domestic, and municipal reasons has increased, and there is the potential for changes in groundwater availability related to climate change. Several types of existing data were evaluated, and new data were collected for this study, with the goal of characterizing the region’s hydrogeology. The study’s scope included constructing a geologic framework model to show where the groundwater-bearing units are present and their relation to each other, estimating the major components of the groundwater budget, and understanding local short-term and regional long-term groundwater flow and how that has changed since the early 1900s. Two electrical resistivity tomography surveys were done in the Durasno Valley about 2,150 feet apart to identify the thickness of the alluvium, its horizontal extent, and the depth-to-basement along two profiles perpendicular to Cahuilla Creek. The subsurface sediments were mostly horizontally layered and the transitional boundary between the alluvium and basement was thinner and shallower along the upgradient profile where the depth-to-basement was about 70 feet below land surface; the depth-to-basement at the downgradient profile was more than about 140 feet below land surface. The results from the surveys were used to place four monitoring wells at two sites along the survey profiles. Artesian flow from the deepest well at the downgradient site indicated that the decomposed and competent basement likely contributed some groundwater to the overlying alluvium, laterally, from below, or both. A digital three-dimensional geologic framework model was constructed using EarthVision software to represent the subsurface geometry of the alluvium, decomposed basement, and competent basement. Maps and cross sections of the modeled thicknesses of the alluvium and decomposed basement, and the modeled elevation of the top of the competent basement, were made to show the subsurface geometry of vertical faults, selected wells, and the groundwater-bearing units. Because natural recharge is related to the variable cycles of precipitation, estimates are difficult to quantify. Recharge and runoff have extreme interannual variability in the study area; recharge and runoff can be sporadic, and a substantive amount may not occur in some years. Estimates of recharge from a previous study and the regional-scale Basin Characterization Model for California for four different periods ranged from 3,800 acre-feet/year for 1897–1947 to 5,900 acre-feet/year for 1971–2000. Potential recharge from the disposal of domestic septic systems may have been as much as 500 acre-feet in 2020. It was estimated that between about 400 and 2,400 acre-feet/year of groundwater is lost through evapotranspiration by vegetation and evaporation from open water bodies, but the main source of discharge is through pumpage, mainly used for agriculture from the alluvium in the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins. The estimated total pumpage for 1991–2021 ranged from about 1,140 acre-feet in 2019 to about 3,450 acre-feet in 1994. When summed, the cumulative amount of estimated pumpage between 1991 and 2021 was about 81,400 acre-feet. The general direction of groundwater flow is from the northeast along the San Jacinto fault zone at the headwaters of Cahuilla and Hamilton Creeks, to the surface-water outlets at the west and southeast parts of the study area. Groundwater-level data from the 1950s and earlier indicate that there was a natural groundwater divide between the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins, but the changing magnitude and extent of the groundwater depressions caused by pumping since about 1950 indicate that the location of the natural groundwater boundary between the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins has migrated over time. Flow from the upper to the lower parts of the Cahuilla Valley groundwater basin roughly follows the course of Cahuilla Creek through the narrow Durasno Valley where an estimated volume of flow in April 2019 was about 10–150 acre-feet/year. Short-term trends in groundwater levels, particularly in wells where groundwater is shallow and in the basement unit, show how some areas respond quickly to recharge and discharge. Wells located further to the east within the Cahuilla Valley groundwater basin in the alluvium show much less of a response to recharge events; areas of sustained pumpage from the alluvium, primarily for agriculture, show long-term declines in groundwater levels and generally do not show the effects of storm events or recent runoff. Groundwater levels in wells that are farthest from where most of the recharge occurs and where pumping has been the greatest, had some of the largest long-term groundwater-level declines at a rate of about 0.8 foot/year between 1971 and 2021.

California↗

USGS2025

Understanding market sensitivity: Estimation of supply and demand elasticities for non-fuel minerals

In today’s rapidly changing economic landscape, understanding market responsiveness to price changes and the factors influencing commodity prices has become increasingly relevant. Price elasticities serve as indicators of how variations in market conditions affect supply and demand, providing insights into the sensitivity of commodity markets to price fluctuations. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of price elasticities of supply and demand for 74 non-fuel mineral commodities including precious metals, base metals, minor metals, and industrial minerals that are utilized across various industries. We employ various econometric techniques, including fixed effects models for panel data and two-stage dynamic ordinary least squares (2S-DOLS) alongside autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models for time series analysis, to derive robust estimates of price elasticities. Our findings reveal variability in elasticities among different commodities and indicate that all studied mineral commodities exhibit price inelastic supply and demand in the short run, which we define as one year for the purposes of our analysis, given that the data is all annual. This research provides original estimates of price responsiveness for a wide range of commodities that have not been previously addressed in the literature, thereby enhancing the understanding of market dynamics in the mineral sector. Given that price elasticities can be influenced by factors such as market structure, technological advancements, mining costs, and industry-specific demand drivers, we use variables that serve as proxies for these factors.

Mineral Economics↗