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Volcano crisis communication: Challenges and solutions in the 21st century

This volume, Observing the volcano world: volcanic crisis communication, focuses at the point where the ‘rubber hits the road’, where the world of volcano-related sciences and all its uncertainties meet with the complex and ever-changing dynamics of our society, wherever and whenever this may be. Core to the issues addressed in this book is the idea of how volcanic crisis communication operates in practice and in theory. This chapter provides an overview of the evolution of thinking around the importance of volcanic crisis communication over the last century, bringing together studies on relevant case studies. Frequently, the mechanisms by which volcanic crisis communication occurs are via a number of key tools employed including: risk assessment, probabilistic analysis, early-warning systems, all of which assist in the decision-making procedures; that are compounded by ever-changing societal demands and needs. This chapter outlines some of the key challenges faced in managing responses to volcanic eruptions since the start of the 20th century, to explore what has been effective, what lessons have been learnt from key events, and what solutions we can discover. Adopting a holistic approach, this chapter aims to provide a contextual background for the following chapters in the volume that explore many of the elements discussed here in further detail. Finally, we consider the future, as many chapters in this book bring together a wealth of new knowledge that will enable further insights for investigation, experimentation, and development of future volcanic crisis communication.

Book chapter↗

Fractals in petroleum geology and earth processes

In this unique volume, renowned experts discuss the applications of fractals in petroleum research-offering an excellent introduction to the subject. Contributions cover a broad spectrum of applications from petroleum exploration to production. Papers also illustrate how fractal geometry can quantify the spatial heterogeneity of different aspects of geology and how this information can be used to improve exploration and production results.

Book↗

The East African monsoon system: Seasonal climatologies and recent variations: Chapter 10

This chapter briefly reviews the complex climatological cycle of the East African monsoon system, paying special attention to its connection to the larger Indo-Pacific-Asian monsoon cycle. We examine the seasonal monsoon cycle, and briefly explore recent circulation changes. The spatial footprint of our analysis corresponds with the “Greater Horn of Africa” (GHA) region, extending from Tanzania in the south to Yemen and Sudan in the north. During boreal winter, when northeast trade winds flow across the northwest Indian Ocean and the equatorial moisture transports over the Indian Ocean exhibit strong westerly mean flows over the equatorial Indian Ocean, East African precipitation is limited to a few highland areas. As the Indian monsoon circulation transitions during boreal spring, the trade winds over the northwest Indian Ocean reverse, and East African moisture convergence supports the “long” rains. In boreal summer, the southwesterly Somali Jet intensifies over eastern Africa. Subsidence forms along the westward flank of this jet, shutting down precipitation over eastern portions of East Africa. In boreal fall, the Jet subsides, but easterly moisture transports support rainfall in limited regions of the eastern Horn of Africa. We use regressions with the trend mode of global sea surface temperatures to explore potential changes in the seasonal monsoon circulations. Significant reductions in total precipitable water are indicated in Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen, with moisture transports broadly responding in ways that reinforce the climatological moisture transports over the Indian Ocean. Over Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia, regressions with velocity potential indicate increased convergence aloft. Near the surface, this convergence appears to manifest as a surface high pressure system that modifies moisture transports in these countries as well as Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. An analysis of rainfall changes indicates significant declines in parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Yemen.

Book chapter↗

Information fusion in regularized inversion of tomographic pumping tests

In this chapter we investigate a simple approach to incorporating geophysical information into the analysis of tomographic pumping tests for characterization of the hydraulic conductivity (K) field in an aquifer. A number of authors have suggested a tomographic approach to the analysis of hydraulic tests in aquifers - essentially simultaneous analysis of multiple tests or stresses on the flow system - in order to improve the resolution of the estimated parameter fields. However, even with a large amount of hydraulic data in hand, the inverse problem is still plagued by non-uniqueness and ill-conditioning and the parameter space for the inversion needs to be constrained in some sensible fashion in order to obtain plausible estimates of aquifer properties. For seismic and radar tomography problems, the parameter space is often constrained through the application of regularization terms that impose penalties on deviations of the estimated parameters from a prior or background model, with the tradeoff between data fit and model norm explored through systematic analysis of results for different levels of weighting on the regularization terms. In this study we apply systematic regularized inversion to analysis of tomographic pumping tests in an alluvial aquifer, taking advantage of the steady-shape flow regime exhibited in these tests to expedite the inversion process. In addition, we explore the possibility of incorporating geophysical information into the inversion through a regularization term relating the estimated K distribution to ground penetrating radar velocity and attenuation distributions through a smoothing spline model. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Studies in Computational Intelligence↗

Resource assessments, geologic deposit models, and offshore minerals with an example of heavy-mineral sands

A resource assessment method for offshore minerals based on descriptive and grade-tonnage models is proposed. Historical development and applications of this method are summarized. Based on this approach, descriptive and quantitative deposit models for strand-line titanium placer deposits have been developed. Descriptive statistics were also computed using the worldwide deposit data set upon which the grade-tonnage models are based. Certain guidelines and limitations in applying onshore titanium deposit models to offshore assessment and exploration must, however, be observed. The descriptive model points out the specific features of strandline titanium placer deposits which can be of use in selection of areas for exploration; the grade-tonnage models display the expected size distribution for this type of deposit. Used with an estimate of expected number of deposits, this information can be applied to quantify probable values associated with deposits of this type within a given area.

NATO Science Series↗

Science during crisis: the application of social science during major environmental crises

Historical and contemporary experience suggests that science plays an increasingly critical role in governmental and institutional responses to major environmental crises. Recent examples include major western wildfires (2009), the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010), the Fukushima nuclear accident (2011), and Hurricane Sandy (2012). The application of science during such crises has several distinctive characteristics, as well as essential requirements if it is to be useful to decision makers. these include scope conditions that include coupled natural/human systems, clear statement of uncertainties and limitations, description of cascading consequences, accurate sense of place, estimates of magnitude of impacts, identification of beneficiaries and those adversely affected, clarity and conciseness, compelling visualization and presentation, capacity to speak "truth to power", and direct access to decision makers. In this chapter, we explore the role and significance of science – including all relevant disciplines and focusing attention on the social sciences – in responding to major environmental crises. We explore several important questions: How is science during crisis distinctive? What social science is most useful during crises? What distinctive characteristics are necessary for social science to make meaningful contributions to emergency response and recovery? How might the social sciences be integrated into the strategic science needed to respond to future crises? The authors, both members of the Department of the Interior's innovative Strategic Sciences Group, describe broad principles of engagement as well as specific examples drawn from history, contemporary efforts (such as during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill), and predictions of environmental crises still to be confronted.

Book chapter↗

Volcanic rocks and processes of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge rift valley near 36 ° 49′ N

Eighty samples of submarine basaltic lava were sampled from an 8 km segment of the floor and walls of the inner rift valley of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge during the French American Mid-Ocean Undersea Study (project Famous). The samples were collected from outcrops and talus slopes by the three submersibles: Alvin, Archimede, and Cyana at water depths of about 2600 meters. The early formed mineral content of the pillow lavas' glassy margins enables classification of the rocks into 5 types: (1) olivine basalt, (2) picritic basalt, (3) plagioclase-olivine-pyroxene basalt, (4) aphyric basalt, and (5) plagioclase-rich basalt. Chemical and mineralogical study indicates that at least 4 types are directly interrelated and that types (1) and (2) are higher-temperature, primitive lavas, and types (3) and (4) are lower-temperature, differentiated lavas derived from the primitive ones by crystal-liquid differentiation. The plagioclase-rich basalts also have a chemical composition of their glass comparable to that of the most differentiated basalts (types 3 and 4) but they differ in their greater amount of early formed plagioclase (12–35%). In general, the mineralogical variation across the rift valley shows an assymetrical distribution of the major basalt types. Despite the mineralogical diversity of the early formed crystals, the chemistry of the basalt glasses indicates a symmetrical and a gradual compositional change across the rift valley. Based primarily on their chemistry, the rock types 1 and 2 occupy an axial zone 1.1 km wide and make up the central volcanic hills. Differentiated lavas (types 3, 4) occupy the margins and walls of the inner rift valley and also occur near the center of the rift valley between the central hills. FeO/MgO ratios of olivine and coexisting melt indicate that the average temperature of eruption was 40 ° C higher for the primitive melts (types 1 and 2). Aside from major elements trends, the higher temperature character of the primitive basalts is shown by their common content of chrome spinel. The thickness of manganese oxide and palagonite on glassy lava provide an estimate of age. In a general fashion the relative age of the various volcanic events follow the compositional zoning observed in the explored area. Most of the youngest samples are olivine basalt of the axial hills. Most older samples occur in the margins of the rift valley (West and N.E. part of explored area) but are significantly younger than the spreading age of the crust on which they are erupted. Intermediate lava types occur mainly east of the rift valley axis and in other areas where plagioclase—olivine—pyroxene basalt and aphyric basalt are present. The above relations indicate that the diverse lava types were erupted from a shallow, zoned magma chamber from fissures distributed over the width of the inner rift valley and elongate parallel to it. Differentiation was accomplished by cooling and crystallization of plagioclase, olivine, and clinopyroxene toward the margins of the chamber. The centrally located hills were built by the piling up of frequent eruption of mainly primitive lavas which also are the youngest flows. In contrast smaller and less frequent eruptions of more differentiated lavas were exposed on both sides of the rift valley axis.

Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology↗

A procedure to estimate the parent population of the size of oil and gas fields as revealed by a study of economic truncation

An estimation technique has been derived to predict the number of small fields in a geologic play or basin. Historically, many small oil and gas fields went unreported because they were not economical. This led to an underestimation of the number of undiscovered small fields. A study of the distributions of reported oil and gas fields in well-explored areas suggests that the large fields when grouped into log base 2 size classes are geometrically distributed. Further, the number of small fields reported is a function of the cost of exploration and development. Thus, the population field-size distribution is conjectured to be log geometric in form. ?? 1983 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗

One-level prediction-A numerical method for estimating undiscovered metal endowment

One-level prediction has been developed as a numerical method for estimating undiscovered metal endowment within large areas. The method is based on a presumed relationship between a numerical measure of geologic favorability and the spatial distribution of metal endowment. Metal endowment within an unexplored area for which the favorability measure is greater than a favorability threshold level is estimated to be proportional to the area of that unexplored portion. The constant of proportionality is the ratio of the discovered endowment found within a suitably chosen control region, which has been explored, to the area of that explored region. In addition to the estimate of undiscovered endowment, a measure of the error of the estimate is also calculated. One-level prediction has been used to estimate the undiscovered uranium endowment in the San Juan basin, New Mexico, U.S.A. A subroutine to perform the necessary calculations is included. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources↗

Economics of mining law

Modern mining law, by facilitating socially and environmentally acceptable exploration, development, and production of mineral materials, helps secure the benefits of mineral production while minimizing environmental harm and accounting for increasing land-use competition. Mining investments are sunk costs, irreversibly tied to a particular mineral site, and require many years to recoup. Providing security of tenure is the most critical element of a practical mining law. Governments owning mineral rights have a conflict of interest between their roles as a profit-maximizing landowner and as a guardian of public welfare. As a monopoly supplier, governments have considerable power to manipulate mineral-rights markets. To avoid monopoly rent-seeking by governments, a competitive market for government-owned mineral rights must be created by artifice. What mining firms will pay for mineral rights depends on expected exploration success and extraction costs. Landowners and mining firms will negotlate respective shares of anticipated differential rents, usually allowing for some form of risk sharing. Private landowners do not normally account for external benefits or costs of minerals use. Government ownership of mineral rights allows for direct accounting of social prices for mineral-bearing lands and external costs. An equitable and efficient method is to charge an appropriate reservation price for surface land use, net of the value of land after reclamation, and to recover all or part of differential rents through a flat income or resource-rent tax. The traditional royalty on gross value of production, essentially a regressive income tax, cannot recover as much rent as a flat income tax, causes arbitrary mineral-reserve sterilization, and creates a bias toward development on the extensive margin where marginal environmental costs are higher. Mitigating environmental costs and resolving land-use conflicts require local evaluation and planning. National oversight ensures that the relative global avaliability of minerals and other values are considered, and can also promote adaptive efficiency by publicizing creative local solutions, providing technical support, and funding useful research. ?? 1995 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources↗

Estimation of undiscovered deposits in quantitative mineral resource assessments-examples from Venezuela and Puerto Rico

Quantitative mineral resource assessments used by the United States Geological Survey are based on deposit models. These assessments consist of three parts: (1) selecting appropriate deposit models and delineating on maps areas permissive for each type of deposit; (2) constructing a grade-tonnage model for each deposit model; and (3) estimating the number of undiscovered deposits of each type. In this article, I focus on the estimation of undiscovered deposits using two methods: the deposit density method and the target counting method. In the deposit density method, estimates are made by analogy with well-explored areas that are geologically similar to the study area and that contain a known density of deposits per unit area. The deposit density method is useful for regions where there is little or no data. This method was used to estimate undiscovered low-sulfide gold-quartz vein deposits in Venezuela. Estimates can also be made by counting targets such as mineral occurrences, geophysical or geochemical anomalies, or exploration "plays" and by assigning to each target a probability that it represents an undiscovered deposit that is a member of the grade-tonnage distribution. This method is useful in areas where detailed geological, geophysical, geochemical, and mineral occurrence data exist. Using this method, porphyry copper-gold deposits were estimated in Puerto Rico. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources↗

Hydrothermal monazite and xenotime chemistry as genetic discriminators for intrusion-related and orogenic gold deposits: Implications for an orogenic origin of the Pogo gold deposit, Alaska

Attempts to geochemically distinguish between metamorphic-hydrothermal systems that form orogenic gold deposits and both reduced and oxidized magmatic-hydrothermal systems using isotopes or metal associations have proven ambiguous, particularly for orogenic gold and reduced intrusion-related gold systems. The absence of conclusive geochemical discriminators and the overlap in geologic characteristics have led to gold deposit models being potentially incorrectly applied, which in turn negatively affect regional mineral exploration and mine planning. In this study, in situ electron microprobe geochemical analyses of hydrothermal monazite and xenotime crystals associated with different types of gold-bearing deposits are shown to be effective geochemical discriminators. There are notable differences in mineral chemistry such as rare earth element (REE) profiles, total light REE, Dy, Er, Pr, Y, Nd/Sm, and La/Sm that distinguish monazite precipitated from metamorphic-hydrothermal fluids that form orogenic gold deposits and those precipitated from magmatic-hydrothermal fluids that form both porphyry Cu-Mo-Au and reduced intrusion-related gold deposits. Notable differences in overall xenotime abundances and concentrations of heavy REEs, Ca, and Sc are distinctive between the different deposit classes for xenotime. The origin of the controversially classified Pogo gold deposit, Tintina gold province, Alaska, which has been characterized as both a reduced intrusion-related and an orogenic gold deposit, is tested based upon the noted chemical differences associated with these hydrothermal phosphates. The findings of this study have implications for exploration and mine development in the Tintina gold province and other areas that contain deposits that are controversially classified as either orogenic or as magmatic-hydrothermal gold deposits.

Alaska↗

Can parasites be indicators of free-living diversity? Relationships between species richness and the abundance of larval trematodes and of local benthos and fishes

Measuring biodiversity is difficult. This has led to efforts to seek taxa whose species richness correlates with the species richness of other taxa. Such indicator taxa could then reduce the time and cost of assessing the biodiversity of the more extensive community. The search for species richness correlations has yielded mixed results, however. This may be primarily because of the lack of functional relationships between the taxa studied. Trematode parasites are highly promising bioindicators. Diverse assemblages of larval trematode parasites are easily sampled in intermediate host snails. Through their life cycles these parasites are functionally coupled with the surrounding free-living diversity of vertebrate and invertebrate animals. It has been shown that larval trematodes in snails correlate positively with bird diversity and abundance. Here, we explore whether trematodes also correlate with standard measures of fishes, and large and small benthos, for 32 sites in three wetlands. We found associations between trematodes and benthic communities that were not consistent across wetlands. The associations were, however, consistently positive for large benthic species richness and density. Some of the contrasting associations between trematode and benthos may be explained by negative associations between large and small benthos. We found no associations with fish communities (probably because of the inadequacy of standard "snapshot" sampling methods for highly mobile fishes). The results support further exploration of trematodes as bioindicators of diversity and abundance of animal communities. ?? 2006 Springer-Verlag.

Oecologia↗

Population cycles are highly correlated over long time series and large spatial scales in two unrelated species: Greater sage-grouse and cottontail rabbits

Animal species across multiple taxa demonstrate multi-annual population cycles, which have long been of interest to ecologists. Correlated population cycles between species that do not share a predator–prey relationship are particularly intriguing and challenging to explain. We investigated annual population trends of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) and cottontail rabbits ( Sylvilagus sp.) across Wyoming to explore the possibility of correlations between unrelated species, over multiple cycles, very large spatial areas, and relatively southern latitudes in terms of cycling species. We analyzed sage-grouse lek counts and annual hunter harvest indices from 1982 to 2007. We show that greater sage-grouse, currently listed as warranted but precluded under the US Endangered Species Act, and cottontails have highly correlated cycles ( r = 0.77). We explore possible mechanistic hypotheses to explain the synchronous population cycles. Our research highlights the importance of control populations in both adaptive management and impact studies. Furthermore, we demonstrate the functional value of these indices (lek counts and hunter harvest) for tracking broad-scale fluctuations in the species. This level of highly correlated long-term cycling has not previously been documented between two non-related species, over a long time-series, very large spatial scale, and within more southern latitudes.

Wyoming↗

Interactive effects of fire, soil climate, and moss on CO 2 fluxes in black spruce ecosystems of interior Alaska

Fire is an important control on the carbon (C) balance of the boreal forest region. Here, we present findings from two complementary studies that examine how fire modifies soil organic matter properties, and how these modifications influence rates of decomposition and C exchange in black spruce (Picea mariana) ecosystems of interior Alaska. First, we used laboratory incubations to explore soil temperature, moisture, and vegetation effects on CO 2 and DOC production rates in burned and unburned soils from three study regions in interior Alaska. Second, at one of the study regions used in the incubation experiments, we conducted intensive field measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and ecosystem respiration (ER) across an unreplicated factorial design of burning (2 year post-fire versus unburned sites) and drainage class (upland forest versus peatland sites). Our laboratory study showed that burning reduced the sensitivity of decomposition to increased temperature, most likely by inducing moisture or substrate quality limitations on decomposition rates. Burning also reduced the decomposability of Sphagnum-derived organic matter, increased the hydrophobicity of feather moss-derived organic matter, and increased the ratio of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) in both the upland and peatland sites. At the ecosystem scale, our field measurements indicate that the surface organic soil was generally wetter in burned than in unburned sites, whereas soil temperature was not different between the burned and unburned sites. Analysis of variance results showed that ER varied with soil drainage class but not by burn status, averaging 0.9 ?? 0.1 and 1.4 ?? 0.1 g C m -2 d -1 in the upland and peatland sites, respectively. However, a more complex general linear model showed that ER was controlled by an interaction between soil temperature, moisture, and burn status, and in general was less variable over time in the burned than in the unburned sites. Together, findings from these studies across different spatial scales suggest that although fire can create some soil climate conditions more conducive to rapid decomposition, rates of C release from soils may be constrained following fire by changes in moisture and/or substrate quality that impede rates of decomposition. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Ecosystems↗

Review: The hydrogeology of critical mineral resources relevant to the energy transition

Attaining the goals of the international treaty on climate change (the Paris Agreement) will greatly increase the demand for the critical minerals required to implement clean-energy technologies. This poses both challenges and opportunities to the hydrogeologic community from several perspectives. Here, important insights that the hydrogeological sciences have to offer for mineral exploration, mineral production, and addressing environmental issues related to mining and mine decommissioning are summarized. This study focuses on copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths to represent the broad spectrum of critical minerals and illustrate their relevance by referring to projected demands and production rates. The current understanding of the hydrogeologic processes that form major deposits of these minerals are then summarized. Ore is defined as the naturally occurring material from which minerals of economic value can be extracted, where most ore deposits are the products of complex hydrogeologic couplings between fluid flow, heat transport, solute transport, chemical reactions, and mechanical deformation. Exploration models for the discovery of deeper, hidden deposits are potentially informed by hydrogeologic theory and hydrogeochemical processes. Hydrogeologic understanding and methods are also essential to production and recovery. Longstanding challenges are mine dewatering and (conversely) mine water supply, as well as mineral-extraction practices such as spoil heap leaching and in situ mining. New challenges arise from element extraction from subsurface brines. Finally, the quantity of water use and potential environmental impacts of mining on water quality are at the core of ‘social license’: the approval and acceptance of society to mining activities.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

Carbon isotope turnover as a measure of arrival time in migratory birds

Arrival time on breeding or non-breeding areas is of interest in many ecological studies exploring fitness consequences of migratory schedules. However, in most field studies, it is difficult to precisely assess arrival time of individuals. Here, we use carbon isotope turnover in avian blood as a technique to estimate arrival time for birds switching from one habitat or environment to another. Stable carbon isotope ratios (δ 13 C) in blood assimilate to a new equilibrium following a diet switch according to an exponential decay function. This relationship can be used to determine the time a diet switch occurred if δ 13 C of both the old and new diet are known. We used published data of captive birds to validate that this approach provides reliable estimates of the time since a diet switch within 1–3 weeks after the diet switch. We then explored the utility of this technique for King Eiders ( Somateria spectabilis ) arriving on terrestrial breeding grounds after wintering and migration at sea. We estimated arrival time on breeding grounds in northern Alaska (95% CI) from red blood cell δ 13 C turnover to be 4–9 June. This estimate overlapped with arrival time of birds from the same study site tracked with satellite transmitters (5–12 June). Therefore, we conclude that this method provides a simple yet reliable way to assess arrival time of birds moving between isotopically distinct environments.

Journal of Ornithology↗

A model to inform management actions as a response to chytridiomycosis-associated decline

Decision-analytic models provide forecasts of how systems of interest will respond to management. These models can be parameterized using empirical data, but sometimes require information elicited from experts. When evaluating the effects of disease in species translocation programs, expert judgment is likely to play a role because complete empirical information will rarely be available. We illustrate development of a decision-analytic model built to inform decision-making regarding translocations and other management actions for the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas), a species with declines linked to chytridiomycosis caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Using the model, we explored the management implications of major uncertainties in this system, including whether there is a genetic basis for resistance to pathogenic infection by Bd, how translocation can best be implemented, and the effectiveness of efforts to reduce the spread of Bd. Our modeling exercise suggested that while selection for resistance to pathogenic infection Decision-analytic models provide forecasts of how systems of interest will respond to management. These models can be parameterized using empirical data, but sometimes require information elicited from experts. When evaluating the effects of disease in species translocation programs, expert judgment is likely to play a role because complete empirical information will rarely be available. We illustrate development of a decision-analytic model built to inform decision-making regarding translocations and other management actions for the boreal toad ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ), a species with declines linked to chytridiomycosis caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ). Using the model, we explored the management implications of major uncertainties in this system, including whether there is a genetic basis for resistance to pathogenic infection by Bd , how translocation can best be implemented, and the effectiveness of efforts to reduce the spread of Bd . Our modeling exercise suggested that while selection for resistance to pathogenic infection by Bd could increase numbers of sites occupied by toads, and translocations could increase the rate of toad recovery, efforts to reduce the spread of Bd may have little effect. We emphasize the need to continue developing and parameterizing models necessary to assess management actions for combating chytridiomycosis-associated declines. by Bd could increase numbers of sites occupied by toads, and translocations could increase the rate of toad recovery, efforts to reduce the spread of Bd may have little effect. We emphasize the need to continue developing and parameterizing models necessary to assess management actions for combating chytridiomycosis-associated declines.

EcoHealth↗