SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Estuaries”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,081 records · Page 60Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Estuarine water quality in parks of the Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network: vital signs estuarine nutrient-enrichment monitoring, 2006-11

This report summarizes results of water-quality monitoring within estuaries of the National Park Service Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network (NCBN) from 2006 through 2011. Data collection formed part of the NCBN Vital Signs Monitoring Program implemented to detect threats of estuarine nutrient enrichment. Data included here were collected from six parks at predetermined intervals: Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011); Fire Island National Seashore, New York (2009, 2011); Gateway National Recreation Area, New York and New Jersey (2010); Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia (2006, 2008, 2010); George Washington Birthplace National Monument, Virginia (2009, 2011); and Colonial National Historic Park, Virginia (2008, 2010). Monitoring variables consisted of dissolved-oxygen concentration, chlorophyll a concentration, attenuation of downwelling photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), turbidity, water temperature, and salinity. All monitoring was conducted during four-week summer index periods. The monitoring design incorporated data collection at multiple, complementary spatial and temporal scales. Within each park, a spatial survey was conducted once during the index period following a probability design using a grid of tessellated hexagons as the basis for sample site selection. The spatial survey was supplemented with weekly measurements at a subset of sites and continuous monitoring at a single reference site. Within parks, data were reported as area-weighted water-quality conditions during each index period, the location and extent of estuarine area within condition categories, and spatial and temporal trends. In addition, we used a repeated measures analysis of variance to determine the extent to which variability in three water quality metrics (chlorophyll a in surface water, dissolved oxygen in bottom water, and water clarity expressed by PAR attenuation) was explained by year to year changes in each park's respective estuary.

Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Vir↗

USGS2015

An updated conceptual model of Delta Smelt biology: Our evolving understanding of an estuarine fish

The main purpose of this report is to provide an up-to-date assessment and conceptual model of factors affecting Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) throughout its primarily annual life cycle and to demonstrate how this conceptual model can be used for scientific and management purposes. The Delta Smelt is a small estuarine fish that only occurs in the San Francisco Estuary. Once abundant, it is now rare and has been protected under the federal and California Endangered Species Acts since 1993. The Delta Smelt listing was related to a step decline in the early 1980s; however, population abundance decreased even further with the onset of the “pelagic organism decline” (POD) around 2002. A substantial, albeit short-lived, increase in abundance of all life stages in 2011 showed that the Delta Smelt population can still rebound when conditions are favorable for spawning, growth, and survival. In this report, we update previous conceptual models for Delta Smelt to reflect new data and information since the release of the last synthesis report about the POD by the Interagency Ecological Program for the San Francisco Estuary (IEP) in 2010. Specific objectives include: 1. Provide decision makers with a practical tool for evaluating difficult trade-offs associated with management and policy decisions. 2. Provide scientists with a framework from which they can formulate and evaluate hypotheses using qualitative or quantitative models. 3. Provide the general public with a new way of learning about Delta Smelt and their habitat. Our updated conceptual model describes the habitat conditions and ecosystem drivers affecting each Delta Smelt life stage, across seasons and how the seasonal effects contribute to the annual success of the species. The conceptual model consists of two nested and linked levels of increasing specificity. The general life cycle conceptual model for four Delta Smelt life stages (adults, eggs and larvae, juveniles, and subadults) includes stationary ecosystem components and dynamic environmental drivers, habitat attributes, and Delta Smelt responses. The more detailed life stage transition conceptual models for each of the four Delta Smelt life stages describe relationships between environmental drivers, key habitat attributes, and the responses of Delta Smelt to habitat attributes as they transition from one life stage to the next. Our analyses and conceptual model show that good larval recruitment is essential for setting the stage for a strong year class; however, increased growth and survival through subsequent life stages are also needed to achieve and sustain higher population abundance. We used our conceptual model to generate 16 hypotheses about the factors that may have contributed to the 2011 increase in Delta Smelt relative abundance. We then evaluated these hypotheses by comparing habitat conditions and Delta Smelt responses in the wet year 2011 to those in the prior wet year 2006 and in the drier years 2005 and 2010. Larval recruitment was similarly high in both wet years and lower in the drier antecedent years, but juvenile and adult abundance increased only in 2011. In 2005 and 2006, the population was limited by very poor survival from the larval to the juvenile life stage. We found that in 2011, Delta Smelt may have benefitted from a combination of favorable habitat conditions throughout the year, including: 1. Adults and larvae benefitted from prolonged cool spring water temperatures, high 2011 winter and spring outflows which reduced entrainment risk and possibly improved other habitat conditions, and possibly enhanced food availability in late spring. 2. Juveniles benefitted from cool water temperatures in late spring and early summer as well as from improved food availability and low levels of harmful Microcystis. 3. Subadults also benefitted from improved food availability and from favorable habitat conditions in the large, low salinity zone (salinity 1-6) located more toward Suisun Bay,

California↗

USGS2014

Structure and vulnerability of Pacific Northwest tidal wetlands – A summary of wetland climate change research by the Western Ecology Division, U.S. EPA

Climate change poses a serious threat to the tidal wetlands of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the U.S. In response to this threat, scientists at the Western Ecology Division of the U.S. EPA at and the Western Fisheries Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey, along with other partners, initiated a series of studies on the structure and vulnerability of tidal wetlands to climate change. One research thrust was to evaluate community structure of PNW marshes, experimentally assess the vulnerability of marsh plants to inundation and salinity stress (as would happen with sea level rise), and evaluate the utility of the National Wetland Inventory (NWI) classification system. Another research thrust was to develop tools that provide insights into possible impacts of climate change. This effort included enhancing the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to predict the effects of sea level rise on submerged aquatic vegetation (Zostera marina) distributions, evaluating changes in river flow into coastal estuaries in response to precipitation changes, and synthesizing Pacific Coast estuary, watershed, and climate data in a downloadable tool. Because the research resulting from these efforts was published in multiple venues, we summarized them in this document. We anticipate that future research efforts by the U.S. EPA will continue with a focus on climate change impacts on a regional scale.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2011

Diet of juvenile and adult American shad in the Columbia River

The diet of juvenile and adult American shad Alosa sapidissima captured from various locations in the Columbia River was investigated during 2007 and 2008. Collection efforts in 2007 were restricted to fish collected from existing adult and juvenile fish collection facilities located at Bonneville Dam and to adult shad captured by angling downstream from Bonneville Dam. In 2008, we used gillnets, electrofishing, beach seining, or cast nets to collect juvenile and adult shad from the saline estuary near Astoria (approximately river km 24) to just upstream from McNary Dam (approximately river km 472). We examined the stomach contents of 436 American shad captured in 2007 and 1,272 captured in 2008. Fish caught within the river were much more likely to contain food items than fish removed from fish collection facilities. The diet of age-0 American shad varied spatially and temporally, but was comprised primarily of crustaceans and insects. Prey diversity of age-0 American shad, as assessed by the Shannon Diversity Index, increased with decreasing distance to the estuary. Pre- and partial-spawn American shad primarily consumed Corophium spp. throughout the Columbia River; however, post-spawn adults primarily consumed gastropods upstream of McNary Dam

Oregon↗

USGS2006

Projecting future sea level

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and geometry of these structures. Rising sea levels from climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water levels, causing historical coastal and San Francisco Bay/Delta structure design criteria to be exceeded.

California↗

USGS2003

Comparison of salinity and temperature at continuous monitoring stations and nearby monthly measurement sites in San Francisco Bay

Salinity and temperature are crucial state variables affecting estuarine habitat an d, thus, are measured by various San Francisco Estuary programs. This article presents a comparison of salinity and temperature data collected at seven continuo us monitoring stations throughout San Francisco Bay (Figure 1) with data collected monthly by the US Geological Survey (USGS) research vessel ( RV ) Polaris . The data comparison was done to determine if the continuous monitoring stations, which mostly are located near shore and always on structures in the water, are representative of water conditions in the main channel of the estuary where the RV Polaris collects measurements.

California↗

USGS1998

Results from the hydrodynamic element of the 1994 entrapment zone study in Suisun Bay

The entrapment zo as long been considered an important region of the San Francisco estuary. It has been the subject of several previous studies, and its location has been suggested as an index of condition of the estuarine ecosystem.A close correlate of this location, X2 1, is now used as a management objective on the basis that X2 is correlated with the abundance or survival of several estuarine-dependent species. X2 is a crude tool to use for this purpose, but it can be refined only through improved understanding of the various mechanisms underlying these correlations. These mechanisms probably differ among species, but for species resident in and near the entrapment zone, the correlation with X2 may be due to variations in intenSity oftrapping mechanisms with pOSition of the entrapment zone. Therefore, it is worthwhile to investigate these trapping mechanisms, the nature of the entrapment zone as habitat, and the responses of the entrapment zone to changes in X2 or outflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Studies ofthe entrapment zone ofthe San Francisco estuary have been conducted in springs of 1994, 1995, and 1996. These studies have been funded by the Interagency Ecological Program and conducted by scientists from IEP member agencies, the Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies, Bodega Marine Laboratory, and the University of California at Santa Cruz. This report presents results from 1994, a low-flow year. Subsequent reports will describe results from 1995 and 1996 and highlight differences among years. This report is organized in chapters that comprise more-or-Iess independent papers, with an introductory chapter for the entire study. This Executive Summary presents highlights of the overall study plan and summarizes the major findings.

California↗

USGS2001

Simplified conversions between specific conductance and salinity units for use with data from monitoring stations

The U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and the California Department of Water Resources maintain a large number of monitoring stations that record specific conductance, often referred to as “electrical conductivity,” in San Francisco Bay Estuary and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Specific conductance units that have been normalized to a standard temperature are useful in fresh waters, but conversion to salinity units has some considerable advantages in brackish waters of the estuary and Delta. For example, salinity is linearly related to the mixing ratio of freshwater and seawater, which is not the case for specific conductance, even when values are normalized to a standard temperature. The Practical Salinity Scale 1978 is based on specific conductance, temperature, and pressure measurements of seawater and freshwater mixtures (Lewis 1980 and references therein). Equations and data that define the scale make possible conversions between specific conductance and salinity values. This article presents a simplified conversion to salinity units for use with specific conductance data from monitoring stations that have been normalized to a standard temperature of 25 °C and an equation for the reverse calculation. Although these previously undocumented methods have been shared with many IEP agencies over the last two decades, the sources of the equations and data are identified here so that the original literature can be accessed.

Interagency Ecological Program Newsletter↗

USGS2000

Nutrient pollution of coastal rivers, bays, and seas

Over the past 40 years, antipollution laws have greatly reduced discharges of toxic substances into our coastal waters. This effort, however, has focused largely on point-source pollution of industrial and municipal effluent. No comparable effort has been made to restrict the input of nitrogen (N) from municipal effluent, nor to control the flows of N and phosphorus (P) that enter waterways from dispersed or nonpoint sources such as agricultural and urban runoff or as airborne pollutants. As a result, inputs of nonpoint pollutants, particularly N, have increased dramatically. Nonpoint pollution from N and P now represents the largest pollution problem facing the vital coastal waters of the United States. Nutrient pollution is the common thread that links an array of problems along the nations coastline, including eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, dead zones, fish kills, some shellfish poisonings, loss of seagrass and kelp beds, some coral reef destruction, and even some marine mammal and seabird deaths. More than 60 percent of our coastal rivers and bays in every coastal state of the continental United States are moderately to severely degraded by nutrient pollution. This degradation is particularly severe in the mid Atlantic states, in the southeast, and in the Gulf of Mexico. A recent report from the National Research Council entitled Clean Coastal Waters: Understanding and Reduc- ing the Effects of Nutrient Pollution concludes that: Nutrient over-enrichment of coastal ecosystems generally triggers ecological changes that decrease the biologi- cal diversity of bays and estuaries. While moderate N enrichment of some coastal waters may increase fish production, over-enrichment generally degrades the marine food web that supports commercially valuable fish. The marked increase in nutrient pollution of coastal waters has been accompanied by an increase in harmful algal blooms, and in at least some cases, pollution has triggered these blooms. High nutrient levels and the changes they cause in water quality and the makeup of the algal community are detrimental to the health of coral reefs and the diversity of animal life supported by seagrass and kelp communi- ties. Research during the past decade confirms that N is the chief culprit in eutrophication and other impacts of nutrient over-enrichment in temperate coastal waters, while P is most problematic in eutrophication of freshwa- ter lakes. Human conversion of atmospheric N into biologically useable forms, principally synthetic inorganic fertilizers, now matches the natural rate of biological N fixation from all the land surfaces of the earth. Both agriculture and the burning of fossil fuels contribute significantly to nonpoint flows of N to coastal waters, either as direct runoff or airborne pollutants. N from animal wastes that leaks directly to surface waters or is volatilized to the atmosphere as ammonia may be the largest single source of N that moves from agricultural operations into coastal waters. The National Research Council report recommended that, as a minimum goal, the nation should work to reverse nutrient should be taken to assure that the 40 percent of coastal areas now ranked as healthy do not develop symptoms of nutrient pollution in 10 percent of its degraded coastal systems by 2010 and 25 percent of them by 2020. Also, action should be taken to assure that the 40 percent of coastal areas now ranked as healthy do not develop symptoms of nutrient pollution. Meeting these goals will require an array of strategies and approaches tailored to specific regions and coastal ecosystems. There is an urgent need for development and testing of techniques that can reliably pinpoint the sources of N pollutants to an estuary. For some coastal systems, N removal during treatment of human sewage may be sufficient to reverse nutrient pollution. For most coastal systems, however, the solutions will be more complex and may involve controls on N compounds emitted during fossil fuel combustion as well as incentives to reduce over-fertilization of agricul- tural fields and nutrient pollution from animal wastes in livestock feedlot operations.

Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florid↗

USGS1996

Seasonal fluctuations of water quality in San Francisco Bay during the first three years of the regional monitoring program, 1993-1995

The 1995 Regional Monitoring Program (RMP) Annual Report includes monitoring results from the Base Program, Pilot and Special Studies, and summary and perspective articles contributed by RMP investigators and other scientists. The purpose of the RMP is to provide information on the status and trends of contamination in San Francisco Estuary water, sediment, and bivalve tissue, and to assess the potential for biological effects from exposure to those contaminants. The objectives, background, and rationale for the RMP are described in the Introduction (Chapter 1). The 1995 RMP Base Program was essentially the same as in 1994. Water monitoring was conducted in February, April, and August at 24 stations throughout the Estuary. Aquatic bioassays were conducted in February and August at 13 of those stations. Sediment monitoring was conducted in February and August at all 24 stations, and sediment bioassays were conducted at 12 of those stations. Bioaccumulation of contaminants by transplanted bivalves was monitored at 15 stations during two 90 day sampling periods: January to April and July to September. Pilot Studies on benthic fauna and tidal wetlands were conducted and Special Studies on trends in trace elements and development of sediment indicators were also included.

California↗

USGS2000

Exposure of delta smelt to dissolved pesticides in 1998 and 1999

Delta smelt is a threatened species in the San Francisco Bay Estuary. Pesticide toxicity is a possible cause for the need to list this fish (Bennett and Moyle 1996; Moyle and others 1996). Numerous pesticides are transported into the estuary from area rivers (MacCoy and others 1995). However, there are minimal data to document the presence, or absence, of pesticides within delta smelt habitat, especially during their vulnerable early life stages. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), documents the occurrence of pesticides within delta smelt habitat; specifically, the length and variability of their potential exposure to multiple dissolved pesticides. This article reviews delta smelt habitat and early life stages followed by an explanation of the study design for assessing pesticide exposure. Results show the co-occurrence of multiple pesticides and delta smelt in their native habitat; these results are presented within the context of possible toxic effects to delta smelt. Finally, the annual variability of pesticide distributions is discussed.

Interagency Ecological Program Newsletter↗

USGS2009

Pilot study to access the role of Ceratomyxa shasta infection in mortality of fall-run Chinook smolts migrating through the lower Klamath River in 2008

Apparent survival and migration rate of radio-tagged hatchery subyearling Chinook salmon released at Iron Gate Hatchery was monitored in the Klamath River to see if the timing of mortality coincided with observations of ceratomyxosis in re-captured coded wire tag cohorts. Despite rapid emigration, these relatively large (mean fork length 92 mm) smolts had a cumulative apparent survival to the estuary of 0.074 (SE 0.024) and standardized rates of survival per 100 km tended to decrease linearly with distance from the hatchery. The last fish detection occurred 26 days after release but median travel time between Iron Gate Hatchery (rkm 309) and the last receiver near the Klamath estuary (Blake’s Riffle rkm 13) was about 10 days. The majority of apparent mortality (8-10 d post-release) occurred before disease from Ceratomyxa shasta infection is expected after exposure to infectious waters. Despite numerous observations of ceratomyxosis in the Klamath R. during June, an obvious link between disease and apparent survival was not present in this study. Future studies should examine the acute (e.g., predator types and densities) and chronic (e.g., swimming performance impairment due to disease) mortality factors for juvenile Chinook salmon smolts in the Klamath River.

California↗

USGS2017

Food web conceptual model

This chapter describes a general model of food webs within tidal wetlands and represents how physical features of the wetland affect the structure and function of the food web. This conceptual model focuses on how the food web provides support for (or may reduce support for) threatened fish species. This model is part of a suite of conceptual models designed to guide monitoring of restoration sites throughout the San Francisco Estuary (SFE), but particularly within the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun Marsh. The conceptual models have been developed based on the Delta Regional Ecosystem Restoration Implementation Plan (DRERIP) models, and are designed to aid in the identification and evaluation of monitoring metrics for tidal wetland restoration projects. Many tidal restoration sites in the Delta are being constructed to comply with environmental regulatory requirements associated with the operation of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project. These include the Biological Opinions for Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) and salmonids (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2008; National Marine Fisheries Service 2009), and the Incidental Take Permit for Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthyes) (California Department of Fish and Wildlife 2009). These regulatory requirements are based on the hypothesis that the decline of listed fish species is due in part to a decline in productivity of the food web (phytoplankton and zooplankton in particular) or alterations in the food web such that production is consumed by other species in the Estuary (Sommer et al. 2007; Baxter et al. 2010; Brown et al. 2016a). Intertidal wetlands and shallow subtidal habitat can be highly productive, so restoring areas of tidal wetlands may result in a net increase in productivity that will provide food web support for these fish species. However, other factors such as invasive bivalves that reduce phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass and invasive predatory fishes that may compete with or prey upon listed fishes can limit the utility of tidal wetlands for food web support (Lucas and Thompson 2012; Herbold et al. 2014). This model utilizes information from the previous DRERIP models for Delta food webs (Durand 2008) and tidal wetlands (Kneib et al. 2008), an updated DRERIP model (Durand 2015), and the State of BayDelta Science 2016 review of recent Delta food web literature (Brown et al. 2016a).

Interagency Ecological Program Technical Report↗

USGS2017

Conceptual model for invasive bivalve control on wetland productivity

Tidal wetlands were the historically dominant features of many coastal regions around the world, including the San Francisco Estuary (Callaway et al. 2011; Whipple et al. 2012). These mosaics of varied interconnected habitats (Mitsch and Gosselink 1993) provide a host of ecosystem services, including biodiversity maintenance, fish and wildlife habitat, water quality improvement, flood abatement, and carbon sequestration (Rabenhorst 1995; Costanza et al. 1997; Bottom et al. 2005; Zedler and Kercher 2005; Barbier et al. 2010). They also support human activities and values such as recreation and aesthetic appreciation (Barbier et al. 2010; Milligan and Kraus-Polk 2016). Despite their critical functions, many wetland landscapes have been destroyed or irreparably altered, either incidentally or intentionally, by human activities (Holland et al. 2004; Zedler and Kercher 2005; Callaway et al. 2011; Cloern and Jassby 2012; Whipple et al. 2012; Schile et al. 2014). San Francisco Estuary (SFE) (see Figure 1) tidal wetlands were largely converted to other land uses in the late 1800s and early 1900s, with the extent of loss and new use varying by region. Wetland losses in the North, Central, and South San Francisco bays and Suisun Bay ranged from 70 percent to 93 percent to accommodate agricultural uses, salt production, managed waterfowl habitat, and urban development (Callaway et al. 2011). Landscape transformation within the most inland portion of the SFE, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), was even more dramatic. Overall, today’s Delta contains 97 percent less freshwater tidal wetland than its historical state and nearly double the open water area (Whipple et al. 2012). The majority of the modern Delta consists of agricultural tracts protected from tidal waters by human-made dikes or levees, which are commonly armored with riprap. The de-watered, rich peat soils of these created islands have supported abundant agricultural production, but have oxidized, compacted, and blown away in the process, causing significant subsidence (Deverel and Leighton 2010). Occasional levee failures turn islands into lakes; a few large shallow lakes remain after accidental levee breaches were not repaired (Whipple et al. 2012).

California↗

USGS2018

Turning on the faucet to a healthy coast

Coastal re-engineering and freshwater extraction have reduced water flow into the estuaries of the world. Because of these activities, stressed coastal vegetation is especially vulnerable to die-off during droughts, contributing to a loss of human services related to storm protection, fisheries and water quality. The subsequent collapse of vegetation is often as related to the loss of flow as to the rise in salinity. The solution to the problem in regions with rapidly expanding human populations may be to apply strategically timed freshwater releases to estuaries. To be successful, the water requirements of both humans and natural environments need careful assessment. Flow management projects have been successful in reviving vegetation in a number of settings including The Everglades, Murray River, Mississippi River and Nueces River. These projects can be contentious, for example, if the projects have caused negative impacts to the oyster industry. Beyond the human services provided, flowing water has an intrinsic personal value for which many people are willing to pay.

Solutions Journal↗

USGS2012

Physical Climate Forces

Key Findings The coasts of the U.S. are home to many large urban centers and important infrastructure such seaports, airports, transportation routes, oil import and refining facilities, power plants, and military bases. All are vulnerable to varying degrees to impacts of global warming such as sea-level rise, storms, and flooding. High Confidence. Physical observations collected over the past several decades from the land, coasts, oceans, and the atmosphere, as well as environmental indicators, show that warming and some related environmental changes are occurring globally at rates greater than can be expected due to natural processes. These climate-related changes are highly varied, but some are likely due in large part to anthropogenically increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and altered land surface properties. High Confidence. Findings from many independent scientific studies conclude that these changes are consistent with global warming. The primary changes observed are rising sea level and average global air, land, and ocean temperatures; heightening temperature and precipitation extremes in some regions; and increasing levels of oceans acidification and rates of glacier and ice sheet melt. High Confidence. Most coastal landforms, such as barrier islands, deltas, bays, estuaries, wetlands, coral reefs, are highly dynamic and sensitive to even small changes in physical forces and feedbacks such as warming, storms, ocean circulation, waves and currents, flooding, sediment budgets, and sea-level rise. High Confidence. The effects of sea-level rise on coasts vary considerably from region-to-region and over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Land subsidence in certain locations causes relative sea-level rise to exceed global mean sea-level rise. Land uplift such as that found in Alaska and the Northwestern Pacific coast can reduce effects of global mean rise. The effects will be greatest and most immediate on low-relief, low-elevation parts of the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico, mid-Atlantic states, northern Alaska, Hawaii, and island territories and especially on coasts containing deltas, coastal plains, tidal wetlands, bays, estuaries, and coral reefs. Beaches and wetlands on steep cliff coasts and shores backed with seawalls may be unable to move landward or maintain their landform with sea-level rise. Many areas of the coast are especially vulnerable because of the often detrimental effects of development on natural processes. High Confidence. The gradual inundation from recent sea-level rise is evident in many regions such as the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana where high tides regularly flood roads and areas that were previously dry, and in stands of “ghost forests,” in which trees are killed by intrusion of brackish water. High Confidence. Sea level change and storms are dominant driving forces of coastal change as observed in the geologic record of coastal landforms. Increasingly, sea-level rise will become a hazard for coastal regions because of continued global mean sea-level rise, including possibly accelerated rates of rise that increase risk to coastal regions. As the global climate continues to warm and ice sheets melt, coasts will become more dynamic and coastal cities and low-lying areas will be increasingly exposed to erosion, inundation, and flooding. High Confidence. No coordinated, interagency process exists in the U.S. for identifying agreed upon global mean sea-level rise projections for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, or management, even though this is a critical first step in assessing coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. High Confidence. Global sea level rose at a rate of 1.7 millimeters/year during the 20th century. The rate has increased to over 3 millimeters/year in the past 20 years and scientific studies suggest high confidence (>9 in 10 chance) that global mean sea level will rise 0.2 to 2 meters by the end of this century. Some regions such as Louisiana and the Chesapeake Bay will experience greater relative rise due to factors such as land subsidence, gravitational redistribution of ice-sheet meltwater, ocean circulation changes, and regional ocean thermostatic effects. Other regions undergoing land uplift, such as Alaska, will experience lesser sea-level rise. High Confidence. Variability in the location and time-of-year of storm genesis can influence landfalling storm characteristics, and even small changes can lead to large changes in landfalling location and impact. Although scientists have only low confidence in the sign of projected changes to the coast of storm-related hazards that depend on a combination of factors such as frequency, track, intensity, and storm size, any sea-level rise is virtually certain to exacerbate storm-related hazards. High Confidence. Although sea-level rise and climate change have occurred in the past, the increasing human presence in the coastal zone will make the impacts different for the future. Land use and other human activities often inhibit the natural response of physical processes and adaptation by plants and animals. In some areas, erosion and wetland loss are common because sediment budgets have been reduced, while, in other regions, excess sediment is in-filling harbors, channels, and bays. High Confidence. Observations continue to indicate an ongoing, warming-induced intensification of the hydrologic cycle that will likely result in heavier precipitation events and, combined with sea-level rise and storm surge, an increased flooding severity in some coastal areas, particularly the northeast U.S. Moderate Confidence. Temperature is primarily driving environmental change in the Alaskan coastal zone. Sea ice and permafrost make northern regions particularly susceptible to temperature change. For example, an increase of two degrees Celsius could basically transform much of Alaska from frozen to unfrozen, with extensive implications. Portions of the north and west coast of Alaska are seeing dramatic increases in the rate of coastal erosion and flooding due to sea ice loss and permafrost melting. As a consequence, several coastal communities are planning to relocate to safer locations. Relocation is a difficult decision that is likely to become more common in the future for many coastal regions. High Confidence. Methane is a primary greenhouse gas. Large reserves of methane are bound-up in Alaska’s frozen permafrost. These are susceptible to disturbance and methane release if the Arctic continues to warm. The additional methane released may result in even greater greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. High Confidence.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Toward improved decision-support tools for Delta Smelt management actions

The Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program (CSAMP) has endorsed a goal of reversing the recent downward trajectory of the Delta Smelt population within 5-10 generations, with the long-term aim of establishing a self-sustaining population. An ambitious agenda of management actions is planned, and more management actions are being considered. This White Paper furthers one of the recommendations in the 2019 Delta Smelt Science Plan – the need to predict the potential ecological effects of taking a management action. Existing statistical models can be highly informative in assessing the response of Delta Smelt to changing system conditions and management actions. However, management actions can shift or alter conditions in ways that models based on analysis of historical data may not be able to represent, and short-term or localized effects may be missed with models designed to assess effects at the population level. Decision support tools (DSTs) are computer-based tools developed to assist decision-making, often combining computationally intensive analysis and spatial mapping of environmental relationships. DSTs can be used in planning processes that evaluate an array of actions, such as in Structured Decision Making (SDM), where DSTs are needed to compare among alternatives. DSTs can also be used to explore the potential effects of different approaches to implementing management actions. The goal of this White Paper is to identify plausible options for DSTs that could be developed for future use to evaluate management actions that seek to either reverse the decline of Delta Smelt or minimize or mitigate the effects of other water management actions. Different types of management actions lead to different needs for DSTs. This White Paper was developed using three types of actions currently being considered to enhance the Delta Smelt population: Supplementation with Hatchery Fish, Summer-Fall Habitat, and Food Enhancement actions. These three management actions target different parts of the estuary and different processes, with a variety of possible metrics to gauge performance. Three DSTs are proposed that collectively address management questions related to the management actions considered, with each requiring a slightly different set of processes to be included and producing an array of outputs at varying spatial and temporal scales: DST 1. Modeling Fish Movement, Survival, and Reproduction Across Their Range. This DST can address management questions that require information about Delta Smelt spatial distribution and movement. • DST 1 could be used to compare conditions with and without management actions in place, how the management action performs among different types of water years (with varied flow and associated abiotic conditions), and to assess relative change with different variations and strategies of the management actions. • DST 2. Changes in Habitat Conditions and Delta Smelt Response. This DST is intended to evaluate combinations of conditions that are considered to provide suitable habitat for Delta Smelt, and Delta Smelt response. Delta Smelt habitat is generally described as open water with low salinity (0 to 6), turbidity of at least 12 NTU, suitable temperature conditions, and sufficient food availability to support growth. • DST 3. Regional Effects of Food Subsidy. This DSTs seeks to evaluate effectiveness of food enhancement actions by providing information on responses of the immediate targets of the action (i.e., phytoplankton or zooplankton) and tracing those to projected growth responses of Delta Smelt. There is not a single DST that adequately addresses management questions relevant to all management actions, although there is some overlap in the management questions each of the three DSTs can address. For each of the DSTs a substantial foundation of models and approaches already exists and modeling has already been applied to several of the management actions described. However, a number of outstanding issues remain for further development of the proposed DSTs. These are summarized in this White Paper together with potential approaches that could be applied or tested. Some components for the DSTs are already available and thus development could be relatively easy. However, for several of the topics identified there are gaps in knowledge that currently limit formulation of model structure and process representations. This presents challenges to readily incorporate some needed mechanisms into the models. Eleven next steps, aligned with relevant DSTs, are outlined. The next steps vary in their complexity or technical ‘lift’ required. Many build on existing work, or methods and approaches that have already been developed or are underway, while others require additional thinking to establish a viable approach. Some interim utility for decisions could be gained during initial development of the DSTs with further features added over time. Development of a DST requires engagement of both managers and scientists. Identifying the outputs and resolution needed for management purposes early in development of any DST is essential for effective pursuit of next steps and suitable approaches to address challenges. Dialog between managers and technical experts also informs what process-based simulation can do, and what tradeoffs are acceptable to meet a given purpose. To further develop the DSTs outlined here for application in the estuary requires: - Engagement of a committed group of technical experts with appropriate expertise. - The development of a coordinated workplan including appropriate project management and tracking. - Dialog between potential users (i.e., managers and policy makers) and technical experts. - Resources to pursue DST development including personnel and computational resources. This White Paper demonstrates the potential for moving toward DSTs for a variety of management actions in support of Delta Smelt that include mechanistic representations of physical and biological processes. Through focused effort from technical experts, managers and policy makers, DSTs can be developed to provide quantitative predictions of management effects on the ecosystem, targeting the changes the management actions seek to achieve, how these effects compare to ambient conditions, and how the effects vary among water year types or with timing and location of actions. Importantly, solid foundations exist which can be leveraged, refined, and built upon to specifically inform current and future management decisions.

White Paper↗

USGS2021

Chesapeake Bay: A case study in resiliency and restoration

Chesapeake Bay (“mother of waters” or the “great shellfish Bay” in Algonquin), is the largest estuary in the United States and arguably the best studied estuary in the world. Chesapeake Bay is immense, with the main stem stretching 200 nautical miles (315 km) from the mouth of the Susquehanna River to its terminus at the Atlantic Ocean and an overall watershed encompassing 64,000 mi2 (165,000 km2). The mainstem, tributaries, and Bay islands form thousands of miles of coastline (Figure 1). Because of its prominence in estuarine science and ecosystem restoration, developing a working knowledge of Chesapeake Bay science and restoration is important. Hopefully, this overview will whet the appetite to learn more from information available both in the scientific literature and on the Chesapeake Bay Program website www.chesapeakebay.net

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗