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USGS2023

Shifted sediment-transport regimes by climate change and amplified hydrological variability in cryosphere-fed rivers

Climate change affects cryosphere-fed rivers and alters seasonal sediment dynamics, affecting cyclical fluvial material supply and year-round water-food-energy provisions to downstream communities. Here, we demonstrate seasonal sediment-transport regime shifts from the 1960s to 2000s in four cryosphere-fed rivers characterized by glacial, nival, pluvial, and mixed regimes, respectively. Spring sees a shift toward pluvial-dominated sediment transport due to less snowmelt and more erosive rainfall. Summer is characterized by intensified glacier meltwater pulses and pluvial events that exceptionally increase sediment fluxes. Our study highlights that the increases in hydroclimatic extremes and cryosphere degradation lead to amplified variability in fluvial fluxes and higher summer sediment peaks, which can threaten downstream river infrastructure safety and ecosystems and worsen glacial/pluvial floods. We further offer a monthly-scale sediment-availability-transport model that can reproduce such regime shifts and thus help facilitate sustainable reservoir operation and river management in wider cryospheric regions under future climate and hydrological change.

Science Advances↗

USGS2011

The trans-Himalayan flights of bar-headed geese (Anser indicus)

Birds that fly over mountain barriers must be capable of meeting the increased energetic cost of climbing in low-density air, even though less oxygen may be available to support their metabolism. This challenge is magnified by the reduction in maximum sustained climbing rates in large birds. Bar-headed geese ( Anser indicus ) make one of the highest and most iconic transmountain migrations in the world. We show that those populations of geese that winter at sea level in India are capable of passing over the Himalayas in 1 d, typically climbing between 4,000 and 6,000 m in 7–8 h. Surprisingly, these birds do not rely on the assistance of upslope tailwinds that usually occur during the day and can support minimum climb rates of 0.8–2.2 km·h −1 , even in the relative stillness of the night. They appear to strategically avoid higher speed winds during the afternoon, thus maximizing safety and control during flight. It would seem, therefore, that bar-headed geese are capable of sustained climbing flight over the passes of the Himalaya under their own aerobic power.

Himalayas↗

USGS2025

Risks of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance exposure through marine fish consumption

Global food trade expansion has enriched diets worldwide but also heightened concerns about contaminant spread. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) can persist in the environment for decades, yet their risks through food trade remain unclear. The global median estimated daily intake (EDI) of C8-PFAS (perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonate) (0.023 nanograms per kilograms per day) was mapped from 212 marine fish species, which indicated higher EDIs in North America, Oceania, and Europe. Furthermore, European countries play a pivotal role in C8-PFAS trade flows, markedly reshaping exposure pathways and driving increased exposure in many nations. These dynamics highlight the importance of establishing food-safety regulations and international trade standards. Although perfluorooctane sulfonate hazard index decreased by 72% after its 2009 regulations, unregulated long-chain PFAS continue to pose elevated risks.

Science↗

USGS2010

U.S. Geological Survey Streamgage Operation and Maintenance Cost Evaluation...from the National Streamflow Information Program

To help meet the goal of providing earth-science information to the Nation, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates and maintains the largest streamgage network in the world, with over 7,600 active streamgages in 2010. This network is operated in cooperation with over 850 Federal, tribal, State, and local funding partners. The streamflow information provided by the USGS is used for the protection of life and property; for the assessment, allocation, and management of water resources; for the design of roads, bridges, dams, and water works; for the delineation of flood plains; for the assessment and evaluation of habitat; for understanding the effects of land-use, water-use, and climate changes; for evaluation of water quality; and for recreational safety and enjoyment. USGS streamgages are managed and operated to rigorous national standards, allowing analyses of data from streamgages in different areas and spanning long time periods, some with more than 100 years of data. About 90 percent of USGS streamgages provide streamflow information real-time on the web. Physical measurements of streamflow are made at streamgages multiple times a year, depending on flow conditions, to ensure the highest level of accuracy possible. In addition, multiple reviews and quality assurance checks are performed before the data is finalized. In 2006, the USGS reviewed all activities, operations, equipment, support, and costs associated with operating and maintaining a streamgage program (Norris and others, 2008). A summary of the percentages of costs associated with activities required to operate a streamgage on an annual basis are presented in figure 1. This information represents what it costs to fund a 'typical' USGS streamgage and how those funds are utilized. It should be noted that some USGS streamgages have higher percentages for some categories than do others depending on location and conditions. Forty-one percent of the funding for the typical USGS streamgage is for labor costs of the USGS staff responsible for the measurement of the streamflow in the field and the time in the office to quality assure and finalize the data. It is reasonable that funding for the entire national streamgage network would closely follow the percentages shown in figure 1 as to how the funds are invested in the network. However, actual costs are specific to a particular streamgage and can vary substantially depending on location and operational issues.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2022

Education initiatives to support earthquake early warning: A retrospective and a roadmap

As of May 2021, public alerting is now operational for the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States in California, Oregon, and Washington. Successful early warning systems require the scientific and technical implementation to be coupled with social and humanitarian considerations, including education and outreach campaigns. Community engagement with the over 50 million people who live in ShakeAlert states is important to increase public safety, security, and awareness of local earthquake hazards, how to prepare, and how ShakeAlert earthquake early warning can help. Here, we describe the efforts of the ShakeAlert Educational Resources Working Group around the rollout of public alerting in the Pacific Northwest for Oregon in March 2021 and Washington in May 2021, respectively. Our initial approach was to engage in formative dialogue with community members in each ShakeAlert state, develop educational activities and animations based on the collective feedback, and then to disseminate our resources in both formal (K‐16) and informal (free choice) learning environments through workshops and outreach events. The rollout of public alerting in the Pacific Northwest provided an opportunity to directly engage with various publics around a specific event, and to collaborate with local news and social media, communications and social science professionals, educators, emergency managers, and scientific and technical experts on the ShakeAlert system. Following the rollouts, we developed a strategic plan for the next five years of ShakeAlert to promote earthquake early warning, as the importance of earthquake preparedness competes with the stressors of everyday life. Because earthquake early warning systems are rapidly expanding worldwide, our education and outreach efforts provide a roadmap for building successful education and outreach campaigns, leading up to public alerting and maintaining earthquake preparedness in the public consciousness following rollout.

Oregon↗

USGS2018

A multiscale approach to balance trade-offs among dam infrastructure, river restoration, and cost

Aging infrastructure and growing interests in river restoration have led to a substantial rise in dam removals in the U.S. However, the decision to remove a dam involves many complex trade-offs. The benefits of dam removal for hazard reduction and ecological restoration are potentially offset by the loss of hydroelectricity production, water supply, and other important services. We use a multi-objective approach to examine a wide array of trade-offs and synergies involved with strategic dam removal at three spatial scales in New England. We find that increasing the scale of decision-making improves the efficiency of trade-offs among ecosystem services, river safety, and economic costs resulting from dam removal, but this may lead to heterogeneous and less equitable local-scale outcomes. Our model may help facilitate multilateral funding, policy, and stakeholder agreements by analyzing the trade-offs of coordinated dam decisions, including net benefit alternatives to dam removal, at scales that satisfy these agreements.

New England↗

USGS2009

Earth science: lasting earthquake legacy

Earthquakes occur within continental tectonic plates as well as at plate boundaries. Do clusters of such mid-plate events constitute zones of continuing hazard, or are they aftershocks of long-past earthquakes? Early on the morning of 16 December 1811, an earthquake of about magnitude 7 shook the centre of the United States around a small town on the Mississippi called New Madrid. By 7 February 1812, it had triggered three more shocks of similar magnitude. The earthquakes broke a set of faults along the Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee state boundaries, apparently reactivating an ancient rift in the interior of a continental tectonic plate. On 31 August 1886, a magnitude-7 shock struck Charleston, South Carolina; low-level activity continues there today. One view of seismic hazard is that large earthquakes will return to New Madrid and Charleston at intervals of about 500 years. With expected ground motions that would be stronger than average, that prospect produces estimates of earthquake hazard that rival those at the plate boundaries marked by the San Andreas fault and Cascadia subduction zone. The result is two large 'bull's-eyes' on the US National Seismic Hazard Maps — which, for example, influence regional building codes and perceptions of public safety.

Nature↗

USGS2024

Arsenic and other geogenic contaminants in global groundwater

Geogenic groundwater contaminants (GGCs) affect drinking-water availability and safety, with up to 60% of groundwater sources in some regions contaminated by more than recommended concentrations. As a result, an estimated 300–500 million people are at risk of severe health impacts and premature mortality. In this Review, we discuss the sources, occurrences and cycling of arsenic, fluoride, selenium and uranium, which are GGCs with widespread distribution and/or high toxicity. The global distribution of GGCs is controlled by basin geology and tectonics, with GGC enrichment in both orogenic systems and cratonic basement rocks. This regional distribution is broadly influenced by climate, geomorphology and hydrogeochemical evolution along groundwater flow paths. GGC distribution is locally heterogeneous and affected by in situ lithology, groundwater flow and water–rock interactions. Local biogeochemical cycling also determines GGC concentrations, as arsenic, selenium and uranium mobilizations are strongly redox-dependent. Increasing groundwater extraction and land-use changes are likely to modify GGC distribution and extent, potentially exacerbating human exposure to GGCs, but the net impact of these activities is unknown. Integration of science, policy, community involvement programmes and technological interventions is needed to manage GGC-enriched groundwater and ensure equitable access to clean water.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗

USGS1999

U.S. Geological Survey programs in Florida, 1999

The safety, health, and economic well-being of Florida?s citizens are important to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which is involved in water-related, geologic, biological, land use, and mapping issues in many parts of the State. The USGS office in Tallahassee acts as the liaison for all studies conducted by USGS scientists in Florida. Water resources activities are conducted not only from the office in Tallahassee, but also from offices in Miami, Tampa, and Altamonte Springs (Orlando). Scientists in these offices investigate surface water, ground water and water quality in Florida, working in cooperation with other Federal, State and local agencies and organizations. The USGS Center for Coastal Geology and Regional Marine Studies was established in St. Petersburg in 1988, in cooperation with the University of South Florida. The Center conducts a wide variety of research on mineral resources and on coastal and regional marine problems, including coastal erosion, climate change, wetlands deterioration, and coastal pollution. A USGS mapping office is located in St. Petersburg. Also, the Earth Science Information Center (ESIC) in Tallahassee provides USGS information to customers and directs inquiries to the appropriate USGS office or State agency on earth science topics, particularly those related to cartography, geography, aerial photography, and digital data. Biologists at the USGS Florida Caribbean Science Center, located in Gainesville, conduct biological and ecosystem studies in Florida, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Reducing risk where tectonic plates collide—U.S. Geological Survey subduction zone science plan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information and tools to build resilience in communities exposed to subduction zone earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Improving the application of USGS science to successfully reduce risk from these events relies on whole community efforts, with continuing partnerships among scientists and stakeholders, including researchers from universities, other government labs and private industry, land-use planners, engineers, policy-makers, emergency managers and responders, business owners, insurance providers, the media, and the general public. Motivated by recent technological advances and increased awareness of our growing vulnerability to subduction-zone hazards, the USGS is uniquely positioned to take a major step forward in the science it conducts and products it provides, building on its tradition of using long-term monitoring and research to develop effective products for hazard mitigation. This science plan provides a blueprint both for prioritizing USGS science activities and for delineating USGS interests and potential participation in subduction zone science supported by its partners. The activities in this plan address many USGS stakeholder needs: High-fidelity tools and user-tailored information that facilitate increasingly more targeted, neighborhood-scale decisions to mitigate risks more cost-effectively and ensure post-event operability. Such tools may include maps, tables, and simulated earthquake ground-motion records conveying shaking intensity and frequency. These facilitate the prioritization of retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure; Information to guide local land-use and response planning to minimize development in likely hazardous zones (for example, databases, maps, and scenario documents to guide evacuation route planning in communities near volcanoes, along coastlines vulnerable to tsunamis, and built on landslide-prone terrain); New tools to assess the potential for cascading hazards, such as landslides, tsunamis, coastal changes, and flooding caused by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions; Geospatial models of permanent, widespread land- and sea-level changes that may occur in the immediate aftermath of great ( M ≥8.0) subduction zone earthquakes; Strong partnerships between scientists and public safety providers for effective decision making during periods of elevated hazard and risk; Accurate forecasts of far-reaching hazards (for example, ash clouds, tsunamis) to avert catastrophes and unnecessary disruptions in air and sea transportation; Aftershock forecasts to guide decisions about when and where to re-enter, repair, or rebuild buildings and infrastructure, for all types of subduction zone earthquakes.

Circular↗

USGS2011

Indigenous observations of climate change in the Lower Yukon River Basin, Alaska

Natural science climate change studies have led to an overwhelming amount of evidence that the Arctic and Subarctic are among the world's first locations to begin experiencing climate change. Indigenous knowledge of northern regions is a valuable resource to assess the effects of climate change on the people and the landscape. Most studies, however, have focused on coastal Arctic and Subarctic communities with relatively little focus on inland communities. This paper relates the findings from fieldwork conducted in the Lower Yukon River Basin of Alaska in the spring of 2009. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with hunters and elders in the villages of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska to document observations of climate change. This study assumes that scientific findings and indigenous knowledge are complementary and seeks to overcome the false dichotomy that these two ways of knowing are in opposition. The observed changes in the climate communicated by the hunters and elders of St. Mary's and Pitka's Point, Alaska are impacting the community in ways ranging from subsistence (shifting flora and fauna patterns), concerns about safety (unpredictable weather patterns and dangerous ice conditions), and a changing resource base (increased reliance on fossil fuels). Here we attempt to address the challenges of integrating these two ways of knowing while relating indigenous observations as described by elders and hunters of the study area to those described by scientific literature.

Human Organization↗

USGS2024

Developing transmissible vaccines for animal infections

Many emerging and reemerging pathogens originate from wildlife, but nearly all wild species are unreachable using conventional vaccination, which requires capture of and vaccine administration to individual animals. By enabling immunization at scales sufficient to interrupt pathogen transmission, transmissible vaccines (TVs) that spread themselves through wildlife populations by infectious processes could potentially transform the management of otherwise intractable challenges to public health, wildlife conservation, and animal welfare. However, generating TVs likely requires modifying viruses that would be intended to spread in nature, which raises concerns ranging from technical feasibility, to safety and security risks, to regulatory uncertainties ( 1 , 2 ). We propose a series of commitments and strategies for vaccine development—beginning with a priori decisions on vaccine design and continuing through to stakeholder codevelopment [see supplementary materials (SM)]—that we believe increase the likelihood that the potential risks of vaccine transmission are outweighed by benefits to conservation, animal welfare, and zoonosis prevention.

Science↗

USGS2024

Testing the effectiveness of interactive training on sexual harassment and assault in field science

Fieldwork is a critical tool for scientific research, particularly in applied disciplines. Yet fieldwork is often unsafe, especially for members of historically marginalized groups and people whose presence in scientific spaces threatens traditional hierarchies of power, authority, and legitimacy. Research is needed to identify interventions that prevent sexual harassment and assault from occurring in the first place. We conducted a quasi-experiment assessing the impacts of a 90-min interactive training on field-based staff in a United States state government agency. We hypothesized that the knowledge-based interventions, social modeling, and mastery experiences included in the training would increase participants’ sexual harassment and assault prevention knowledge, self-efficacy, behavioural intention, and behaviour after the training compared to a control group of their peers. Treatment–control and pre-post training survey data indicate that the training increased participants’ sexual harassment and assault prevention knowledge and prevention self-efficacy, and, to a lesser extent, behavioural intention. These increases persisted several months after the training for knowledge and self-efficacy. While we did not detect differences in the effect of the training for different groups, interestingly, post-hoc tests indicated that women and members of underrepresented racial groups generally scored lower compared to male and white respondents, suggesting that these groups self-assess their own capabilities differently. Finally, participants’ likelihood to report incidents increased after the training but institutional reports remained low, emphasizing the importance of efforts to transform reporting systems and develop better methods to measure bystander actions. These results support the utility of a peer-led interactive intervention for improving workplace culture and safety in scientific fieldwork settings.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2013

Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California

Scenario planning and final results associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami project are providing great benefits to the ongoing tsunami risk-reduction efforts of the California Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. This program, led by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, works with coastal communities to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation at the local level through various efforts, such as improving tsunami hazard analysis, establishing consistent evacuation communications and planning, and leveraging national risk-reduction efforts associated with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The recent 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis did not cause notable inundation of dry land in California, but dozens of harbors sustained damages totaling nearly $100 million (Wilson and others, 2012a). Estimates associated with the SAFRR distant tsunami scenario suggest socioeconomic and environmental losses could be even larger. Information gathered from these events and the SAFRR scenario is guiding the development and implementation of new strategies for emergency response, maritime planning, and land-use planning, including a reassessment of the tsunami threat along the California coast; scenario-specific, tsunami evacuation “playbook” maps and guidance in-harbor hazard maps and offshore safety zones for potential boat evacuation during future distant source events; “probability-based” products for land-use planning under the California Seismic Hazard Mapping Act; and an expansion of real-time and post-tsunami field reconnaissance teams and information sharing through a state-wide clearinghouse. The state tsunami program has benefitted greatly from participation in the SAFRR tsunami scenario process, and hopes to continue this relationship with the U.S. Geological Survey to help improve tsunami preparedness in California.

California↗

USGS2006

Volcano and Earthquake Monitoring Plan for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, 2006-2015

To provide Yellowstone National Park (YNP) and its surrounding communities with a modern, comprehensive system for volcano and earthquake monitoring, the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) has developed a monitoring plan for the period 2006-2015. Such a plan is needed so that YVO can provide timely information during seismic, volcanic, and hydrothermal crises and can anticipate hazardous events before they occur. The monitoring network will also provide high-quality data for scientific study and interpretation of one of the largest active volcanic systems in the world. Among the needs of the observatory are to upgrade its seismograph network to modern standards and to add five new seismograph stations in areas of the park that currently lack adequate station density. In cooperation with the National Science Foundation (NSF) and its Plate Boundary Observatory Program (PBO), YVO seeks to install five borehole strainmeters and two tiltmeters to measure crustal movements. The boreholes would be located in developed areas close to existing infrastructure and away from sensitive geothermal features. In conjunction with the park's geothermal monitoring program, installation of new stream gages, and gas-measuring instruments will allow YVO to compare geophysical phenomena, such as earthquakes and ground motions, to hydrothermal events, such as anomalous water and gas discharge. In addition, YVO seeks to characterize the behavior of geyser basins, both to detect any precursors to hydrothermal explosions and to monitor earthquakes related to fluid movements that are difficult to detect with the current monitoring system. Finally, a monitoring network consists not solely of instruments, but requires also a secure system for real-time transmission of data. The current telemetry system is vulnerable to failures that could jeopardize data transmission out of Yellowstone. Future advances in monitoring technologies must be accompanied by improvements in the infrastructure for data transmission. Overall, our strategy is to (1) maximize our ability to provide rapid assessments of changing conditions to ensure public safety, (2) minimize environmental and visual impact, and (3) install instrumentation in developed areas.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2013

Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought out by the SAFRR tsunami scenario? (Real emergencies) How do these activities, considerations, and challenges play out as the tsunami event unfolds across the “life” of the event? (Lessons)

California↗

USGS2016

Analysis of local slopes at the InSight landing site on Mars

To evaluate the topography of the surface within the InSight candidate landing ellipses, we generated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) at lander scales and those appropriate for entry, descent, and landing simulations, along with orthoimages of both images in each stereopair, and adirectional slope images. These products were used to assess the distribution of slopes for each candidate ellipse and terrain type in the landing site region, paying particular attention to how these slopes impact InSight landing and engineering safety, and results are reported here. Overall, this region has extremely low slopes at 1-meter baseline scales and meets the safety constraints of the InSight lander. The majority of the landing ellipse has a mean slope at 1-meter baselines of 3.2°. In addition, a mosaic of HRSC, CTX, and HiRISE DTMs within the final landing ellipse (ellipse 9) was generated to support entry, descent, and landing simulations and evaluations. Several methods were tested to generate this mosaic and the NASA Ames Stereo Pipeline program dem_mosaic produced the best results. For the HRSC-CTX-HiRISE DTM mosaic, more than 99 % of the mosaic has slopes less than 15°, and the introduction of artificially high slopes along image seams was minimized.

Space Science Reviews↗

USGS2004

Incorporating uncertainty into mercury-offset decisions with a probabilistic network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit holders: An interim report

This interim report describes an alternative approach for evaluating the efficacy of using mercury (Hg) offsets to improve water quality. Hg-offset programs may allow dischargers facing higher-pollution control costs to meet their regulatory obligations by making more cost effective pollutant-reduction decisions. Efficient Hg management requires methods to translate that science and economics into a regulatory decision framework. This report documents the work in progress by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center in collaboration with Stanford University toward developing this decision framework to help managers, regulators, and other stakeholders decide whether offsets can cost effectively meet the Hg total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements in the Sacramento River watershed. Two key approaches being considered are: (1) a probabilistic approach that explicitly incorporates scientific uncertainty, cost information, and value judgments; and (2) a quantitative approach that captures uncertainty in testing the feasibility of Hg offsets. Current fate and transport-process models commonly attempt to predict chemical transformations and transport pathways deterministically. However, the physical, chemical, and biologic processes controlling the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments are complex and poorly understood. Deterministic models of Hg environmental behavior contain large uncertainties, reflecting this lack of understanding. The uncertainty in these underlying physical processes may produce similarly large uncertainties in the decisionmaking process. However, decisions about control strategies are still being made despite the large uncertainties in current Hg loadings, the relations between total Hg (HgT) loading and methylmercury (MeHg) formation, and the relations between control efforts and Hg content in fish. The research presented here focuses on an alternative analytical approach to the current use of safety factors and deterministic methods for Hg TMDL decision support, one that is fully compatible with an adaptive management approach. This alternative approach uses empirical data and informed judgment to provide a scientific and technical basis for helping National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit holders make management decisions. An Hg-offset system would be an option if a wastewater-treatment plant could not achieve NPDES permit requirements for HgT reduction. We develop a probabilistic decision-analytical model consisting of three submodels for HgT loading, MeHg, and cost mitigation within a Bayesian network that integrates information of varying rigor and detail into a simple model of a complex system. Hg processes are identified and quantified by using a combination of historical data, statistical models, and expert judgment. Such an integrated approach to uncertainty analysis allows easy updating of prediction and inference when observations of model variables are made. We demonstrate our approach with data from the Cache Creek watershed (a subbasin of the Sacramento River watershed). The empirical models used to generate the needed probability distributions are based on the same empirical models currently being used by the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Cache Creek Hg TMDL working group. The significant difference is that input uncertainty and error are explicitly included in the model and propagated throughout its algorithms. This work demonstrates how to integrate uncertainty into the complex and highly uncertain Hg TMDL decisionmaking process. The various sources of uncertainty are propagated as decision risk that allows decisionmakers to simultaneously consider uncertainties in remediation/implementation costs while attempting to meet environmental/ecologic targets. We must note that this research is on going. As more data are collected, the HgT and cost-mitigation submodels are updated and the uncertainties may be reduced. Subsequently, the value of using a probabilistic framework for estimating and explicitly stating these uncertainties within a decisionmaking process can be estimated when new data are collected. Future work includes the design and implementation of a Bayesian network decision support system (BN-DSS) to produce mitigation scenarios for offset-project evaluation in the Cache Creek watershed. The decisionmaker, a wastewater-treatment plant, is expected to evaluate potential Hg-offset programs in terms of changes in HgT load changes, MeHg-production potential, project cost, and other suitability criteria. Subsequently, scenarios can be analyzed by performing sensitivity analyses and ranking environmental and economic uncertainties in terms of the decisionmaker’s preferences and risk choices. Such an analysis allows decisionmakers and stakeholders to explore various scenarios and predict the consequences of different stated preferences over outcomes.

Open-File Report↗