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The past and future roles of competition and habitat in the range‐wide occupancy dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls

Slow ecological processes challenge conservation. Short‐term variability can obscure the importance of slower processes that may ultimately determine the state of a system. Furthermore, management actions with slow responses can be hard to justify. One response to slow processes is to explicitly concentrate analysis on state dynamics. Here, we focus on identifying drivers of Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) territorial occupancy dynamics across 11 study areas spanning their geographic range and forecasting response to potential management actions. Competition with Barred Owls ( Strix varia ) has increased Spotted Owl territory extinction probabilities across all study areas and driven recent declines in Spotted Owl populations. Without management intervention, the Northern Spotted Owl subspecies will be extirpated from parts of its current range within decades. In the short term, Barred Owl removal can be effective. Over longer time spans, however, maintaining or improving habitat conditions can help promote the persistence of northern spotted owl populations. In most study areas, habitat effects on expected Northern Spotted Owl territorial occupancy are actually greater than the effects of competition from Barred Owls. This study suggests how intensive management actions (removal of a competitor) with rapid results can complement a slower management action (i.e., promoting forest succession).

Ecological Applications↗

Resist-accept-direct (RAD)-A framework for the 21st-century natural resource manager

An assumption of stationarity—i.e. “the idea that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability” (Milly et al. 2008)—underlies traditional conservation and natural resource management, as evidenced by widespread reliance on ecological baselines to guide protection, restoration, and other management. Although ecological change certainly occurred under the relatively stable conditions of the recent past, the nature of change under intensifying global change is different; it is unidirectional, and rapidly pushing beyond the bounds of historical variability. In the past, a manager could plausibly work to reverse or mitigate many stressors or their impacts to approximate pre-disturbance ecological conditions, but now accelerated warming, changing disturbance regimes, and extreme events associated with climate change reduce that potential. Indeed, even ‘holding the line’ in the face of inexorable human-caused change is ever more difficult and costly. Thus, the convention of using baseline conditions to define goals for today’s resource management is increasingly untenable, presenting practical and philosophical challenges for managers. As formerly familiar ecological conditions continue to change, bringing novelty, surprise, and uncertainty, natural resource managers require a new, shared approach to make conservation decisions. How, for example, should a manager respond to projections of loss of the Joshua tree from much of its current range, or to the emergence of new and different vegetation communities after a large fire event? The RAD (Resist-Accept-Direct) decision framework has emerged over the past decade as a simple tool that captures the entire decision space for responding to ecosystems facing the potential for rapid, irreversible ecological change. It assists managers in making informed, purposeful choices about how to respond to the trajectory of change, and moreover, provides a straightforward approach to support resource managers in collaborating at larger scales across jurisdictions, which today is more urgent than ever.

Natural Resource Report↗

The role of adaptive management as an operational approach for resource management agencies

In making resource management decisions, agencies use a variety of approaches that involve different levels of political concern, historical precedence, data analyses, and evaluation. Traditional decision-making approaches have often failed to achieve objectives for complex problems in large systems, such as the Everglades or the Colorado River. I contend that adaptive management is the best approach available to agencies for addressing this type of complex problem, although its success has been limited thus far. Traditional decision-making approaches have been fairly successful at addressing relatively straightforward problems in small, replicated systems, such as management of trout in small streams or pulp production in forests. However, this success may be jeopardized as more users place increasing demands on these systems. Adaptive management has received little attention from agencies for addressing problems in small-scale systems, but I suggest that it may be a useful approach for creating a holistic view of common problems and developing guidelines that can then be used in simpler, more traditional approaches to management. Although adaptive management may be more expensive to initiate than traditional approaches, it may be less expensive in the long run if it leads to more effective management. The overall goal of adaptive management is not to maintain an optimal condition of the resource, but to develop an optimal management capacity. This is accomplished by maintaining ecological resilience that allows the system to react to inevitable stresses, and generating flexibility in institutions and stakeholders that allows managers to react when conditions change. The result is that, rather than managing for a single, optimal state, we manage within a range of acceptable outcomes while avoiding catastrophes and irreversible negative effects. Copyright ?? 1999 by The Resilience Alliance.

Conservation Ecology↗

Applied historical ecology: Using the past to manage for the future

Applied historical ecology is the use of historical knowledge in the management of ecosystems. Historical perspectives increase our understanding of the dynamic nature of landscapes and provide a frame of reference for assessing modern patterns and processes. Historical records, however, are often too brief or fragmentary to be useful, or they are not obtainable for the process or structure of interest. Even where long historical time series can be assembled, selection of appropriate reference conditions may be complicated by the past influence of humans and the many potential reference conditions encompassed by nonequilibrium dynamics. These complications, however, do not lessen the value of history; rather they underscore the need for multiple, comparative histories from many locations for evaluating both cultural and natural causes of variability, as well as for characterizing the overall dynamical properties of ecosystems. Historical knowledge may not simplify the task of setting management goals and making decisions, but 20th century trends, such as increasingly severe wildfires, suggest that disregarding history can be perilous. We describe examples from our research in the southwestern United States to illustrate some of the values and limitations of applied historical ecology. Paleoecological data from packrat middens and other natural archives have been useful for defining baseline conditions of vegetation communities, determining histories and rates of species range expansions and contractions, and discriminating between natural and cultural causes of environmental change. We describe a montane grassland restoration project in northern New Mexico that was justified and guided by an historical sequence of aerial photographs showing progressive tree invasion during the 20th century. Likewise, fire scar chronologies have been widely used to justify and guide fuel reduction and natural five reintroduction in forests. A southwestern network of fire histories illustrates the power of aggregating historical time series across spatial scales. Regional fire patterns evident in these aggregations point to the key role of interannual lags in responses of fuels and fire regimes to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (wet/dry cycles), with important implications for long-range fire hazard forecasting. These examples of applied historical ecology emphasize that detection and explanation of historical trends and variability are essential to informed management.

Ecological Applications↗

Management of Sequoiadendron giganteum and Sequoia sempervirens forests in the reserves of California - Considerations of ecology and conservation

Giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ), also known as “Bigtree” and “Sierra Redwood,” is entirely restricted to the Sierra Nevada mountain range in the State of California, while coast redwood ( Sequoia sempervirens ) is restricted to coastal northern California, extending northward slightly into the State of Oregon. Both charismatic species, members of the family Taxodiaceae, have served as important cultural icons in America, and both have played important roles in the history of nature conservation. The two species share important ecological similarities as well as significant differences; these ecological factors have become increasingly important in effecting their conservation, and in developing successful strategies for the long-term sustainable management of the forest communities in which they occur. The bulk of giant sequoia groves occur in reserves protected from logging, while only a small proportion of coast redwoods are similarly protected. For most of its history in the 20th century, conservation has been concerned with protecting uncut “old-growth” forest stands of giant trees. While this remains of great concern to the public, scientists and reserve managers have, in recent decades, extended their interest to what is known as “ecosystem management,” which includes all aspects of the natural ecosystems in which coast redwoods and giant sequoias occur. For the first time, attempts are presently beginning--in those areas outside the national parks, state parks, and other reserves, to reconcile some levels of timber harvest with the long-term sustainable preservation of the character and biodiversity of giant sequoia and redwood forests.

California↗

Combined multibeam and LIDAR bathymetry data from eastern Long Island Sound and westernmost Block Island Sound-A regional perspective

Detailed bathymetric maps of the sea floor in Long Island Sound are of great interest to the Connecticut and New York research and management communities because of this estuary's ecological, recreational, and commercial importance. The completed, geologically interpreted digital terrain models (DTMs), ranging in area from 12 to 293 square kilometers, provide important benthic environmental information, yet many applications require a geographically broader perspective. For example, individual surveys are of limited use for the planning and construction of cross-sound infrastructure, such as cables and pipelines, or for the testing of regional circulation models. To address this need, we integrated 12 multibeam and 2 LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) contiguous bathymetric DTMs, produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during charting operations, into one dataset that covers much of eastern Long Island Sound and extends into westernmost Block Island Sound. The new dataset is adjusted to mean lower low water, is gridded to 4-meter resolution, and is provided in UTM Zone 18 NAD83 and geographic WGS84 projections. This resolution is adequate for sea floor-feature and process interpretation but is small enough to be queried and manipulated with standard Geographic Information System programs and to allow for future growth. Natural features visible in the grid include exposed bedrock outcrops, boulder lag deposits of submerged moraines, sand-wave fields, and scour depressions that reflect the strength of the oscillating and asymmetric tidal currents. Bedform asymmetry allows interpretations of net sediment transport. Anthropogenic artifacts visible in the bathymetric data include a dredged channel, shipwrecks, dredge spoils, mooring anchors, prop-scour depressions, buried cables, and bridge footings. Together the merged data reveal a larger, more continuous perspective of bathymetric topography than previously available, providing a fundamental framework for research and resource management activities in this major east-coast estuary.

Open-File Report↗

Ecogeomorphologic response of a tidally restricted salt marsh to tidal restoration and sea-level rise

Diked marshes with decades of restricted tidal flow exhibit fundamentally altered hydrologic and ecologic dynamics that result in limited vertical accretion, land subsidence, and underdeveloped tidal channels. These changes complicate marsh restoration efforts and constrain the marsh's ability to build elevation in response to future sea levels. In this study, we developed an integrated hydrodynamic and marsh accretion model to conduct the first assessment of the restoration potential of a diked marsh in response to reintroduction of tidal flow and sea-level rise (SLR). We applied our model to evaluate changes in biomass production in the Herring River estuary, Cape Cod, MA, USA—which has experienced significant ecological shifts due to more than a century of tidal restriction—in response to a range of SLR scenarios, tidal flow conditions, management interventions, and biomass production rates through 2100. We found that with restoration of tidal flow, the simulated marsh extent expanded in areas with efficient drainage, increasing biomass production by up to 4.4 times. However, when SLR was imposed, parts of the marsh gradually transitioned to open water, leading to a decline in marsh coverage from 19% to as low as 12%. Management interventions aimed at enhancing marsh elevation and improving the drainage capacity of tidal channels slowed marsh loss, supporting marsh area through 2100. Our findings provide insight into the key drivers of marsh resilience and loss, and our approach can be applied across tidally restricted and restored systems to develop targeted, adaptive restoration strategies that achieve desired ecological outcomes.

Massachusetts↗

Surface-Water and Ground-Water Interactions in the Central Everglades, Florida

Recharge and discharge are hydrological processes that cause Everglades surface water to be exchanged for subsurface water in the peat soil and the underlying sand and limestone aquifer. These interactions are thought to be important to water budgets, water quality, and ecology in the Everglades. Nonetheless, relatively few studies of surface water and ground water interactions have been conducted in the Everglades, especially in its vast interior areas. This report is a product of a cooperative investigation conducted by the USGS and the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) aimed at developing and testing techniques that would provide reliable estimates of recharge and discharge in interior areas of WCA-2A (Water Conservation Area 2A) and several other sites in the central Everglades. The new techniques quantified flow from surface water to the subsurface (recharge) and the opposite (discharge) using (1) Darcy-flux calculations based on measured vertical gradients in hydraulic head and hydraulic conductivity of peat; (2) modeling transport through peat and decay of the naturally occurring isotopes 224 Ra and 223 Ra (with half-lives of 4 and 11 days, respectively); and (3) modeling transport and decay of naturally occurring and "bomb-pulse" tritium (half-life of 12.4 years) in ground water. Advantages and disadvantages of each method for quantifying recharge and discharge were compared. In addition, spatial and temporal variability of recharge and discharge were evaluated and controlling factors identified. A final goal was to develop appropriately simplified (that is, time averaged) expressions of the results that will be useful in addressing a broad range of hydrological and ecological problems in the Everglades. Results were compared with existing information about water budgets from the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM), a principal tool used by the South Florida Water Management District to plan many of the hydrological aspects of the Everglades restoration.

Florida↗

Fish Bioenergetics 4.0: An R-based modeling application

Bioenergetics modeling is a widely used tool in fisheries management and research. Although popular, currently available software (i.e., Fish Bioenergetics 3.0) has not been updated in over 20 years and is incompatible with newer operating systems (i.e., 64‐bit). Moreover, since the release of Fish Bioenergetics 3.0 in 1997, the number of published bioenergetics models has increased appreciably from 56 to 105 models representing 73 species. In this article, we provide an overview of Fish Bioenergetics 4.0 (FB4), a newly developed modeling application that consists of a graphical user interface (Shiny by RStudio) combined with a modeling package used in the R computing environment. While including the same capabilities as previous versions, Fish Bioenergetics 4.0 allows for timely updates and bug fixes and can be continuously improved based on feedback from users. In addition, users can add new or modified parameter sets for additional species and formulate and incorporate modifications such as habitat‐dependent functions (e.g., dissolved oxygen, salinity) that are not part of the default package. We hope that advances in the new modeling platform will attract a broad range of users while facilitating continued application of bioenergetics modeling to a wide spectrum of questions in fish biology, ecology, and management.

Fisheries Magazine↗

Arctic biodiversity: Increasing richness accompanies shrinking refugia for a cold-associated tundra fauna

As ancestral biodiversity responded dynamically to late-Quaternary climate changes, so are extant organisms responding to the warming trajectory of the Anthropocene. Ecological predictive modeling, statistical hypothesis tests, and genetic signatures of demographic change can provide a powerful integrated toolset for investigating these biodiversity responses to climate change, and relative resiliency across different communities. Within the biotic province of Beringia, we analyzed specimen localities and DNA sequences from 28 mammal species associated with boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes to assess both historical distributional and evolutionary responses and then forecasted future changes based on statistical assessments of past and present trajectories, and quantified distributional and demographic changes in relation to major management regions within the study area. We addressed three sets of hypotheses associated with aspects of methodological, biological, and socio-political importance by asking (1) what is the consistency among implications of predicted changes based on the results of both ecological and evolutionary analyses; (2) what are the ecological and evolutionary implications of climate change considering either total regional diversity or distinct communities associated with major biomes; and (3) are there differences in management implications across regions? Our results indicate increasing Arctic richness through time that highlights a potential state shift across the Arctic landscape. However, within distinct ecological communities, we found a predicted decline in the range and effective population size of tundra species into several discrete refugial areas. Consistency in results based on a combination of both ecological and evolutionary approaches demonstrates increased statistical confidence by applying cross-discipline comparative analyses to conservation of biodiversity, particularly considering variable management regimes that seek to balance sustainable ecosystems with other anthropogenic values. Refugial areas for cold-adapted taxa appear to be persistent across both warm and cold climate phases and although fragmented, constitute vital regions for persistence of Arctic mammals.

Ecosphere↗

Home range, habitat use, and movement patterns of non-native Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park, Florida, USA

Background Studies on the spatial ecology of invasive species provide critical information for conservation managers such as habitat preferences and identification of native species at risk of predation. To understand the spatial ecology of non-native Burmese pythons ( Python molurus bivittatus ), now well-established in Everglades National Park and much of South Florida USA, we radio-tracked 19 wild-caught adult pythons, 16 with VHF tags during 2006 through 2009 and 3 by GPS tags between 2010 and 2011. Our goal was to identify individual core-use areas and quantify home ranges, as well as to explore correlations of python movements with environmental parameters such as the presence of surface water. Results Radio-tracking periods ranged from 87 to 697 days for snakes with VHF tags, with a total of 5,119 tracking days (mean ± 1 SD = 319.9 ± 184.3 days); GPS tracking periods ranged from 12 to 93 days, with a total of 146 tracking days (mean ± 1 SD = 48.7 ± 40.7 days). We observed mean individual radio-tracked python home ranges of 22.5 km 2 (2250 ha) with overall low site fidelity; all home ranges were within the park boundary. Python core-use areas included slough and coastal habitat types, and we delineated 18 common-use areas (that is, areas where individual core-use areas spatially overlapped). Tree islands were a principal feature of common-use areas, even if they were not the predominant habitat type. Multiple common-use areas were in proximity to roads. The longest movements of individual pythons correlated well with presence of surface water, and occurred during both wet and dry seasons. Conclusions High-use areas determined from python habitat-use and movement data may be optimal locations for targeted control efforts and further studies on impacts to native fauna.

Florida↗

Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of frequency and severity, and depending on the extent to which ecosystems are adapted) may maintain or restore ecosystem functionality; however, in areas that are highly departed from historical fire regimes or where there is disequilibrium between climate and vegetation, ecosystems may be rapidly and persistently altered by wildfires, especially those that burn under extreme conditions.

Idaho↗

The collapse of pelagic fishes in the upper San Francisco estuary

Although the pelagic fish community of the upper San Francisco Estuary historically has shown substantial variability, a recent collapse has captured the attention of resource managers, scientists, legislators, and the general public. The ecological and management consequences of the decline are most serious for delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a threatened species whose narrow range overlaps with large water diversions that supply water to over 25 million people. The decline occurred despite recent moderate hydrology, which typically results in at least modest recruitment, and investments of hundreds of millions of dollars in habitat restoration and environmental water allocations to support native fishes. In response to the pelagic fish collapse, an ambitious multi-hyphen;agency research team has been working since 2005 to evaluate the causes of the decline, which likely include a combination of factors: stock-recruitment effects, a decline in habitat quality, increased mortality rates, and reduced food availability due to invasive species.

California↗

The role of satellite telemetry data in 21st century conservation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Satellite telemetry (ST) has played a critical role in the management and conservation of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) over the last 50 years. ST data provide biological information relevant to subpopulation delineation, movements, habitat use, maternal denning, health, human-bear interactions, and accurate estimates of vital rates and abundance. Given that polar bears are distributed at low densities over vast and remote habitats, much of the information provided by ST data cannot be collected by other means. Obtaining ST data for polar bears requires chemical immobilization and application of a tracking device. Although immobilization has not been found to have negative effects beyond a several-day reduction in activity, over the last few decades opposition to immobilization and deployment of satellite-linked radio collars has resulted in a lack of current ST data in many of the 19 recognized polar bear subpopulations. Here, we review the uses of ST data for polar bears and evaluate its role in addressing 21 st century conservation and management challenges, which include estimation of sustainable harvest rates, understanding the impacts of climate warming, delineating critical habitat, and assessing potential anthropogenic impacts from tourism, resource development and extraction. We found that in subpopulations where ST data have been consistently collected, information was available to estimate vital rates and subpopulation density, document the effects of sea-ice loss, and inform management related to subsistence harvest and regulatory requirements. In contrast, a lack of ST data in some subpopulations resulted in increased bias and uncertainty in ecological and demographic parameters, which has a range of negative consequences. As sea-ice loss due to climate warming continues, there is a greater need to monitor polar bear distribution, habitat use, abundance, and subpopulation connectivity. We conclude that continued collection of ST data will be critically important for polar bear management and conservation in the 21 st century and that the benefits of immobilizing small numbers of individual polar bears in order to deploy ST devices significantly outweigh the risks.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

A statement of common ground regarding the role of wildfire in forested landscapes of the western United States

For millennia, wildfires have markedly influenced forests and non-forested landscapes of the western United States (US), and they are increasingly seen as having substantial impacts on society and nature. There is growing concern over what kinds and amounts of fire will achieve desirable outcomes and limit harmful effects on people and nature. Moreover, the increasing complexity surrounding cost and management of wildfires suggests that science should play a more prominent role in informing decisions about the need for fire in nature, and the need for society to adapt to the inevitable occurrence of different kinds and amounts of fire and smoke. Scientists widely view the natural wildfire regime as essential to western US forest ecosystem functioning. However, debates continue over how much low-, moderate-, and high severity fire is “natural” or desirable in these forests. Ongoing disagreement centers on the characteristics and importance of historical proportions and patch size distributions of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires of dry, moist, and cold forests, and on the ecological consequences of changing fire-patch patterns and relative abundances. Scientists also debate the relative importance of climate and extreme weather versus fuel as drivers of high-severity fire, as well as the effectiveness and value of fuel treatments for reducing risks of undesired fire effects. Climate research shows that we should expect shifting future climates in all ecoregions. These expected changes make it difficult for scientists, land managers, and decision-makers to know the degree to which future forest management should be informed by historical conditions. There also is disagreement about how to make western forests more resilient to future disruptions in both climatic and fire regimes. To complicate matters, areas of scientific agreement -- the “common ground” shared by those in the research community -- are poorly articulated. Thus, the focus of the Fire Research Consensus (FRC) project has been to identify common ground among scientists, and provide a summary that can inform management. Land and fire managers are one audience for this report, as are stakeholders and the interested public. Our analysis, which results from extensive scientific literature reviews and questionnaires sent to western fire scientists and land managers, is summarized in nine key topics: A. Fire history and fire ecology vary with geography. B. Human impacts and management history vary with geography. C. Fire is a keystone process, which occurs in almost all western US forest types. D. Knowledge of historical range of variability (HRV) is useful but does not dictate land management goals. E. Forest structure, composition, and fuels have changed, affecting burn severity and fire extent. F. Climate and fuels both influence current fire sizes and their severities. G. The role of changing climatic conditions is increasingly important. H. Multiple fire ecology and fire history research approaches can be useful for characterizing fire regimes. I. Many existing fire management tools and strategies can be useful moving forward. We found much common ground that will be useful to scientists, managers, citizens, and policy decision-makers. For example, there is wide agreement among scientists that fire is one of the most essential influences on western forests and that more fire is needed on most landscapes, but not all wildfire behavior or extent will do. Fires can produce more positive benefits and fewer negative impacts when they burn with an ecologically appropriate mix and pattern of low, moderate, and high severity. Managers will need assistance and funding to create landscape conditions that favor more desirable fire behavior at broad spatial scales. Note that much societal impact from western wildfires occurs in non-forested landscapes that are not covered in this report, where findings would differ from those reported here for forested landscapes. We summarize additional key points below.

Western United States↗

Bay Miwok evening primrose: A new subspecies of Oenothera deltoides (Onagraceae) endemic to California

California contains exceptional biodiversity in geography and plant life, including numerous endemic species, some of which are cryptic. The Oenothera deltoides Torr. & Frém. species complex represents a prime example of cryptic diversity. Here, we recognize a new subspecies of Oenothera deltoides , O. deltoides subsp. julpunensis S.F.Jones, subsp. nov., that is a local endemic of windblown sand deposits on the eastern Antioch Dunes sand sheet in the San Francisco Bay-Delta region of California, USA. With the goal of providing clarity to managers of listed species and better understanding of California's diverse flora, we addressed the puzzle of O. deltoides in the region by combining range-wide field surveys with modern genomic tools. We describe the proposed subspecies, its ecology and distribution, and discuss its conservation. As a somewhat cryptic local endemic with small population size and disappearing habitat, the proposed subspecies would benefit from conservation and management to persist as a member of the California flora.

California↗

Climate change amplifies ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity

Understanding how climate change will contribute to ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity is critical for informing natural resource management, yet complicated by interactions with wildfire and biological invasions. Here, we assessed potential future changes in sagebrush ecological integrity under a range of scenarios using an individual plant-based simulation model, integrated with remotely sensed estimates of current sagebrush ecological integrity. The simulation model allowed us to estimate how climate change, wildfire, and invasive annuals interact to alter the potential abundance of key plant functional types that influence sagebrush ecological integrity: sagebrush, perennial grasses, and annual grasses. Our results suggest that climate driven reductions in sagebrush ecological integrity may occur over broader areas than increases in sagebrush ecological integrity. Declines in sagebrush ecological integrity were most likely in hot and dry regions while increases were more likely in cool and wet regions. Increases in wildfire probability, largely driven by increasing invasive annual grass abundance, resulted in projected declines in sagebrush abundance and sagebrush ecological integrity in some regions, particularly the Great Basin. The most common projected transitions in sagebrush habitat classification were declines from Core Sagebrush Area to Growth Opportunity Area and from Growth Opportunity Area to Other Rangeland Area. Responses varied considerably across projections from different global climate models, highlighting the importance of climate uncertainty. However, our projections tended to be robust in areas that currently have the highest sagebrush ecological integrity. Our results provide a long-term perspective on the vulnerability of sagebrush ecosystems to climate change and may inform geographic prioritization of conservation and restoration investments. These results suggest that ongoing threats, such as the continued invasion by annual grasses and increased wildfire frequency, are likely to be amplified by climate change, and imply that the current imbalance between capacity for conservation to address threats to sagebrush will grow as the climate warms.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

Exploring management options for moose at their southern range limits considering growing disease risk

1. Populations of cold-adapted species are increasingly vulnerable along their low-latitude range limits due to shifting environmental conditions, biotic interactions, and anthropogenic pressures. Managing these populations is particularly challenging because of complex ecological dynamics, conflicting stakeholder interests, and decision-making under uncertainty. 2. We explored population growth (λ) of moose ( Alces alces ) under different hypothetical management scenarios, simulating combinations of five hypothetical harvest levels with three levels of disease impact. 3. Facing current disease, the population could support multiple levels of conservative harvest. Under elevated levels of disease-caused mortality, projections indicated declines for all harvest scenarios. We projected increases across all harvest scenarios when overlap with white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) was hypothetically reduced and disease mortality in moose minimized. We investigated whether uncertainty in moose demographic parameters altered population trajectory, and found changes in adult fecundity and calf survival could alter harvest decisions when λ<1. 4. Practical implication . While moose population trajectories may remain stable under current conditions, management of white-tailed deer that reduces moose exposure to lethal parasites may provide the greatest utility in sustaining moose in New York given the potential for increased disease. Continued monitoring of population size, growth, and disease prevalence would inform sustainable moose harvest levels that balance social and ecological management considerations.

New York↗