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Chemical weathering of the Panola Granite: Solute and regolith elemental fluxes and the weathering rate of biotite

Present-day elemental and mineral weathering rates based on solute fluxes are compared quantitatively to past long-term rates determined from solid-state elemental fractionation in a saprolitic granite regolith at Panola, Georgia, USA. Saturated fluid flow across a low-permeability kaolin duripan controls the rate of steady-state unsaturated flow in the underlying saprolite. Water and Cl mass balances and experimental conductivities produce a minimum fluid flux density of 8x10 -2 m yr -1 and a fluid residence time of 12 years. Solute Si flux, based on pore water concentrations and infiltration rates, is 27 mmoles yr -1 , compared to a long-term flux rate of 17 mmoles yr -1 , based on regolith Si loss and reported 36 Cl dating of the regolith surface. Similarities in short- and long-term fluxes imply that parameters influencing silicate weathering, including precipitation, temperature, and vegetative cover, while not necessarily constant, have not significantly impacted Si leaching rates during the last several hundred thousand years. Linear decreases in solid-state Mg with decreasing regolith depth permit the calculation of the long-term biotite weathering rate under isovolumetric steady-state weathering conditions. A rate constant of 3x10 -17 moles m -2 s -1 is up to 5 orders of magnitude slower than that reported for experimental dissolution of biotite, implying very different reaction kinetics during natural weathering. Short-term biotite weathering fails to produce expected increases in solute Mg and K concentrations with increasing depth and fluid residence times in the regolith. This discrepancy indicates that ion exchange disequilibrium and open-system biologic uptake in an aggrading forest ecosystem are of sufficient magnitudes to overwhelm solute fluxes resulting from biotite weathering.

Georgia

Alternative solution model for the ternary carbonate system CaCO3 - MgCO3 - FeCO3 - II. Calibration of a combined ordering model and mixing model

Earlier attempts at solution models for the ternary carbonate system have been unable to adequately accommodate the cation ordering which occurs in some of the carbonate phases. The carbonate solution model of this study combines a Margules type of interaction model with a Bragg-Williams type of ordering model. The ordering model determines the equilibrium state of order for a crystal, from which the cation distribution within the lattice can be obtained. The interaction model addresses the effect that mixing different cation species within a given cation layer has on the total free energy of the system. An ordering model was derived, based on the Bragg-Williams approach; it is applicable to ternary systems involving three cations substituting on two sites, and contains three ordering energy parameters (WCaMg, WCaFe, and WCaMgFe). The solution model of this study involves six Margules-type interaction parameters (W12, W21, W13, W31, W23, and W32). Values for the two sets of energy parameters were calculated from experimental data and from compositional relationships in natural assemblages. ?? 1993 Springer-Verlag.

Physics and Chemistry of Minerals

Priority research needs to inform amphibian conservation in the Anthropocene

The problem of global amphibian declines has prompted extensive research over the last three decades. Initially, the focus was on identifying and characterizing the extent of the problem, but more recently efforts have shifted to evidence-based research designed to identify best solutions and to improve conservation outcomes. Despite extensive accumulation of knowledge on amphibian declines, there remain knowledge gaps and disconnects between science and action that hamper our ability to advance conservation efforts. Using input from participants at the ninth World Congress of Herpetology, a U.S. Geological Survey Powell Center symposium, amphibian on-line forums for discussion, the International Union for Conservation of Nature Assisted Reproductive Technologies and Gamete Biobanking group, and respondents to a survey, we developed a list of 25 priority research questions for amphibian conservation at this stage of the Anthropocene. We identified amphibian conservation research priorities while accounting for expected tradeoffs in geographic scope, costs, and the taxonomic breadth of research needs. We aimed to solicit views from individuals rather than organizations while acknowledging inequities in participation. Emerging research priorities (i.e., those under-represented in recently published amphibian conservation literature) were identified, and included the effects of climate change, community-level (rather than single species-level) drivers of declines, methodological improvements for research and monitoring, genomics, and effects of land-use change. Improved inclusion of under-represented members of the amphibian conservation community was also identified as a priority. These research needs represent critical knowledge gaps for amphibian conservation although filling these gaps may not be necessary for many conservation actions.

Conservation Science and Practice

Artesian water in Somervell County, Texas

Somervell County is part of the Grand Prairie region of north-central Texas. An excellent supply of artesian water is available from the Trinity reservoir at no great depth. The first flowing well in Somervell County was drilled in 1880, and the first flowing well in Glen Rose, the county seat, was drilled in 1881. Since 1880 more than 500 wells have been constructed, probably more than half of them prior to 1900. Many of these early wells have been abandoned, either because the well hole caved in as a result of the absence or deterioration of casing or because the wells ceased to yield water by natural flow. The artesian water has always been used chiefly for domestic supply and for watering stock. Only a comparatively small area of farm land is now irrigated. The quantity used to supply the needs of tourist camps and outdoor swimming pools forms a relatively large percentage of the total amount withdrawn from the artesian reservoir in Somervell County. The artesian water is contained chiefly in the permeable sandstone beds--the basal sands for the Trinity group. Some shallow wells of small capacity are supplied by water in the crevices and solution channels in limestone that apparently is near the base of the Glen Rose formation and probably derives its water by leakage from the underlying Trinity reservoir. The wells encounter from one to three aquifers, the number depending upon their depth and location. At and around Glen Rose, the area in which most of the flowing wells are concentrated, the first aquifer is the creviced portion of the limestone, which is encountered at about 50 feet but does not everywhere yield water. The second and third aquifers, both of which are part of the 'basal sands' of the Trinity group, are much more uniform and persistent; the second is encountered at Glen Rose at depths of 100 to 135 feet, and the third at depths of about 275 to 330 feet. The artesian reservoir is supplied by water that falls as rain or snow upon the outcrop of the 'basal sands' on the higher lands west and north of Somervell County. These permeable beds dip eastward and southeastward beneath the county and are covered by the less permeable beds of the overlying Glen Rose formation. As the water that reaches the zone of saturation percolates down the dip of the beds it is confined under artesian pressure, and wells that penetrate these beds at lower altitudes yield water by natural flow. Originally the artesian pressure was sufficient to raise the water in tightly cased wells in the northwestern part of Somervell County to a maximum altitude of about 750 feet above sea level, but at Glen Rose the original artesian head was probably not more than 710 feet. From the information avail- able it would appear that the original head of the water in the upper aquifers was not nearly as great as that of the lower aquifer. The head has declined generally throughout the county. At Glen Rose in June 1930 the artesian head of the water from the deepest aquifer of the Trinity reservoir was about 639 feet above sea level, and the head of the water from the upper aquifers was about 15 feet less. The decline in head still continues, but at a very much slower rate than formerly. With the decline in head the size of the area of artesian flow has decreased, though in recent years the shrinkage has been comparatively little. The draft from the artesian reservoir in Somervell County during the summer is estimated at about 1,000,000 gallons a day, distributed as follows: Domestic use, 150,000 gallons; stock use, 60,000 gallons; recreation pools, 250,000 gallons; irrigation, 180,000 gallons; and waste, not including underground leakage, 360,000 gallons. In winter the daily draft is probably about 370,000 gallons less than in summer. The 360,000 gallons a day permitted to flow from wells without being used for any beneficial purposes is an unnecessary drain upon the artesian reservoir. The head of many of the flowing wells in Glen R

Water Supply Paper

Niobium and tantalum

Niobium and tantalum are transition metals that are almost always found together in nature because they have very similar physical and chemical properties. Their properties of hardness, conductivity, and resistance to corrosion largely determine their primary uses today. The leading use of niobium (about 75 percent) is in the production of high-strength steel alloys used in pipelines, transportation infrastructure, and structural applications. Electronic capacitors are the leading use of tantalum for high-end applications, including cell phones, computer hard drives, and such implantable medical devices as pacemakers. Niobium and tantalum are considered critical and strategic metals based on the potential risks to their supply (because current production is restricted to only a few countries) and the significant effects that a restriction in supply would have on the defense, energy, high-tech industrial, and medical sectors. The average abundance of niobium and tantalum in bulk continental crust is relatively low—8.0 parts per million (ppm) niobium and 0.7 ppm tantalum. Their chemical characteristics, such as small ionic size and high electronic field strength, significantly reduce the potential for these elements to substitute for more common elements in rock-forming minerals and make niobium and tantalum essentially immobile in most aqueous solutions. Niobium and tantalum do not occur naturally as pure metals but are concentrated in a variety of relatively rare oxide and hydroxide minerals, as well as in a few rare silicate minerals. Niobium is primarily derived from the complex oxide minerals of the pyrochlore group ((Na,Ca,Ce) 2 (Nb,Ti,Ta) 2 (O,OH,F) 7 ), which are found in some alkaline granite-syenite complexes (that is, igneous rocks containing sodium- or potassium-rich minerals and little or no quartz) and carbonatites (that is, igneous rocks that are more than 50 percent composed of primary carbonate minerals, by volume). Tantalum is derived mostly from the mineral tantalite ((Fe,Mn)(Ta,Nb) 2 O 6 ), which is found as an accessory mineral in rare-metal granites and pegmatites that are also enriched in lithium and cesium (termed lithium-cesium-tantalum (LCT)-type pegmatites). Brazil and Canada are the leading nations that produce niobium mineral concentrates, but Brazil is by far the leading producer, accounting for about 90 percent of production, which comes mostly from weathered material derived from carbonatites. Brazil and Canada also have the largest identified niobium resources; additional resources, although they are less well reported, occur in Angola, Australia, China, Greenland, Malawi, Russia, and South Africa. Australia and Brazil have been the leading producers of tantalum mineral concentrates, although recently Ethiopia and Mozambique have also been significant suppliers of tantalum. Artisanal mining of columbite-tantalite (also called coltan) is practiced in many countries, particularly Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Congo [Kinshasa]), Nigeria, Rwanda, and Uganda. Brazil has about 40 percent of the identified tantalum resources; other countries and regions with identified tantalum resources include, in decreasing order of resources, Australia, Asia, Russia and the Middle East, Africa, North America, and Europe. Identified niobium and tantalum resources in the United States are small, low grade, and difficult to recover and process, and are thus not commercially recoverable at current prices. Consequently, the United States meets its current and expected future needs for niobium and tantalum through imports of primary mineral concentrates and alloys and through recovery from foreign and domestic alloy scrap that contain the metals. Environmentally, the main issues related to niobium and tantalum mining are land disruptions, the volume of waste materials and their disposal, and the radioactivity of some tailings and waste materials that contain thorium and uranium. Because of the relative biological inertness of niobium and tantalum, human and ecological health concerns are generally minimal under most natural conditions. Demand for both niobium and tantalum is expected to increase as the world economy continues to recover from the downturn that began in 2008. Increased demand for niobium is linked to increased consumption of microalloyed steel, which is used in the manufacture of cars, buildings, ships, and refinery equipment. Demand for these steels will likely increase with continued economic development in such countries as Brazil, China, and India. In addition, increased global demand for cars, cell phones, computers, superconducting magnets, and other high-tech devices will likely spur increased demand for both niobium and tantalum. The estimated global reserves and resources of niobium and tantalum are large and appear more than sufficient to meet global demand for the foreseeable future, possibly the next 500 years. The sale of “conflict coltan” attributed to rebel forces waging a civil war in Congo (Kinshasa) has been of recent concern and has highlighted the need for a transparent and traceable global supply chain that can exclude illegal columbite-tantalite from the conventional market while discerning legitimate artisanal mine production in central Africa.

Professional Paper

Of elephants and blind men: Deer management in the U.S. National Parks

Overabundant populations of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) are becoming common in the eastern United States. Faced with burgeoning deer populations in eastern parks, the National Park Service (NPS) formulated policy based on its long experience with ungulate management in western parks. That the NPS failed to find a management solution acceptable to its many constituencies was inevitable. Like blind men touching different parts of an elephant and disagreeing about its form, those engaged in the debate about deer management in parks are viewing different parts of the ecological system. None has seen the entire system, and consequently, there is neither common agreement on the nature of the problem nor on the solutions. We explore the quandary of deer management in eastern parks by addressing three questions: (1) Can the National Park Service reconcile its management goals with those of its neighbors? (2) Can thresholds be identified for determining when to intervene in natural processes? (3) Is there a scientific foundation for proceeding with effective management of deer? We argue that reconciling the NPS management with that of state conservation agencies is not possible because management policy guides these agencies in opposite directions: the NPS is charged with limiting human impact on ecological processes, and state agencies are charged with exerting human control over population abundance. Questions about thresholds and a scientific basis for management arise from concern that irrupting deer populations are a manifestation of disrupted natural processes. Several population growth paradigms are at the heart of this ecological question. The science provides no consensus about which of these paradigms are appropriate to deer in eastern ecosystems. Thus, it is premature to expect science to identify if or when natural processes have been disrupted. While the NPS cannot effectively achieve its goals without better science, neither can it wait for science to fully understand the dynamics of plant–herbivore interactions. The best hope for resolving both the biological and political dilemmas surrounding deer management is through an adaptive management approach.

Ecological Applications

Representing general theoretical concepts in structural equation models: The role of composite variables

Structural equation modeling (SEM) holds the promise of providing natural scientists the capacity to evaluate complex multivariate hypotheses about ecological systems. Building on its predecessors, path analysis and factor analysis, SEM allows for the incorporation of both observed and unobserved (latent) variables into theoretically-based probabilistic models. In this paper we discuss the interface between theory and data in SEM and the use of an additional variable type, the composite. In simple terms, composite variables specify the influences of collections of other variables and can be helpful in modeling heterogeneous concepts of the sort commonly of interest to ecologists. While long recognized as a potentially important element of SEM, composite variables have received very limited use, in part because of a lack of theoretical consideration, but also because of difficulties that arise in parameter estimation when using conventional solution procedures. In this paper we present a framework for discussing composites and demonstrate how the use of partially-reduced-form models can help to overcome some of the parameter estimation and evaluation problems associated with models containing composites. Diagnostic procedures for evaluating the most appropriate and effective use of composites are illustrated with an example from the ecological literature. It is argued that an ability to incorporate composite variables into structural equation models may be particularly valuable in the study of natural systems, where concepts are frequently multifaceted and the influence of suites of variables are often of interest. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

Environmental and Ecological Statistics

The Interface Between Theory and Data in Structural Equation Models

Structural equation modeling (SEM) holds the promise of providing natural scientists the capacity to evaluate complex multivariate hypotheses about ecological systems. Building on its predecessors, path analysis and factor analysis, SEM allows for the incorporation of both observed and unobserved (latent) variables into theoretically based probabilistic models. In this paper we discuss the interface between theory and data in SEM and the use of an additional variable type, the composite, for representing general concepts. In simple terms, composite variables specify the influences of collections of other variables and can be helpful in modeling general relationships of the sort commonly of interest to ecologists. While long recognized as a potentially important element of SEM, composite variables have received very limited use, in part because of a lack of theoretical consideration, but also because of difficulties that arise in parameter estimation when using conventional solution procedures. In this paper we present a framework for discussing composites and demonstrate how the use of partially reduced form models can help to overcome some of the parameter estimation and evaluation problems associated with models containing composites. Diagnostic procedures for evaluating the most appropriate and effective use of composites are illustrated with an example from the ecological literature. It is argued that an ability to incorporate composite variables into structural equation models may be particularly valuable in the study of natural systems, where concepts are frequently multifaceted and the influences of suites of variables are often of interest.

Open-File Report

Time‐lapse imaging of saline‐tracer transport in fractured rock using difference‐attenuation radar tomography

Accurate characterization of fractured‐rock aquifer heterogeneity remains one of the most challenging and important problems in groundwater hydrology. We demonstrate a promising strategy to identify preferential flow paths in fractured rock using a combination of geophysical monitoring and conventional hydrogeologic tests. Cross‐well difference‐attenuation ground‐penetrating radar was used to monitor saline‐tracer migration in an experiment at the U.S. Geological Survey Fractured Rock Hydrology Research Site in Grafton County, New Hampshire. Radar data sets were collected every 10 min in three adjoining planes for 5 hours during each of 12 tracer tests. An innovative inversion method accounts for data acquisition times and temporal changes in attenuation during data collection. The inverse algorithm minimizes a combination of two functions. The first is the sum of weighted squared data residuals. Second is a measure of solution complexity based on an a priori space‐time covariance function, subject to constraints that limit radar‐attenuation changes to regions of the tomograms traversed by high difference‐attenuation ray paths. The time series of tomograms indicate relative tracer concentrations and tracer arrival times in the image planes; from these we infer the presence and location of a preferential flow path within a previously identified zone of transmissive fractures. These results provide new insights into solute channeling and the nature of aquifer heterogeneity at the site.

New Hampshire

Mark-resight abundance estimation under incomplete identification of marked individuals

Often less expensive and less invasive than conventional mark–recapture, so-called 'mark-resight' methods are popular in the estimation of population abundance. These methods are most often applied when a subset of the population of interest is marked (naturally or artificially), and non-invasive sighting data can be simultaneously collected for both marked and unmarked individuals. However, it can often be difficult to identify marked individuals with certainty during resighting surveys, and incomplete identification of marked individuals is potentially a major source of bias in mark-resight abundance estimators. Previously proposed solutions are ad hoc and will tend to underperform unless marked individual identification rates are relatively high (>90%) or individual sighting heterogeneity is negligible. Based on a complete data likelihood, we present an approach that properly accounts for uncertainty in marked individual detection histories when incomplete identifications occur. The models allow for individual heterogeneity in detection, sampling with (e.g. Poisson) or without (e.g. Bernoulli) replacement, and an unknown number of marked individuals. Using a custom Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to facilitate Bayesian inference, we demonstrate these models using two example data sets and investigate their properties via simulation experiments. We estimate abundance for grassland sparrow populations in Pennsylvania, USA when sampling was conducted with replacement and the number of marked individuals was either known or unknown. To increase marked individual identification probabilities, extensive territory mapping was used to assign incomplete identifications to individuals based on location. Despite marked individual identification probabilities as low as 67% in the absence of this territorial mapping procedure, we generally found little return (or need) for this time-consuming investment when using our proposed approach. We also estimate rookery abundance from Alaskan Steller sea lion counts when sampling was conducted without replacement, the number of marked individuals was unknown, and individual heterogeneity was suspected as non-negligible. In terms of estimator performance, our simulation experiments and examples demonstrated advantages of our proposed approach over previous methods, particularly when marked individual identification probabilities are low and individual heterogeneity levels are high. Our methodology can also reduce field effort requirements for marked individual identification, thus, allowing potential investment into additional marking events or resighting surveys.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probablistic approach

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are deterministic. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the existing models is the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of shallow rainfall-induced landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a stochastic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. The range of variation and the mean value of the parameters can be determined by the usual methods used for preparing the TRIGRS input parameters. The outputs of several model runs obtained varying the input parameters are analyzed statistically, and compared to the original (deterministic) model output. The comparison suggests an improvement of the predictive power of the model of about 10% and 16% in two small test areas, i.e. the Frontignano (Italy) and the Mukilteo (USA) areas, respectively. We discuss the computational requirements of TRIGRS-P to determine the potential use of the numerical model to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in very large areas, extending for several hundreds or thousands of square kilometers. Parallel execution of the code using a simple process distribution and the Message Passing Interface (MPI) on multi-processor machines was successful, opening the possibly of testing the use of TRIGRS-P for the operational forecasting of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large regions.

Geoscientific Model Development and Discussions

From safe yield to sustainable development of water resources - The Kansas experience

This paper presents a synthesis of water sustainability issues from the hydrologic perspective. It shows that safe yield is a flawed concept and that sustainability is an idea that is broadly used but perhaps not well understood. In general, the sustainable yield of an aquifer must be considerably less than recharge if adequate amounts of water are to be available to sustain both the quantity and quality of streams, springs, wetlands, and ground-water-dependent ecosystems. To ensure sustainability, it is imperative that water limits be established based on hydrologic principles of mass balance. To establish water-use policies and planning horizons, the transition curves of aquifer systems from ground-water storage depletion to induced recharge of surface water need to be developed. Present-day numerical models are capable of generating such transition curves. Several idealized examples of aquifer systems show how this could be done. Because of the complexity of natural systems and the uncertainties in characterizing them, the current philosophy underlying sustainable management of water resources is based on the interconnected systems approach and on adaptive management. Examples of water-resources management from Kansas illustrate some of these concepts in a real-world setting. Some of the hallmarks of Kansas water management are the formation of local ground-water management districts, the adoption of minimum streamflow standards, the use of modified safe-yield policies in some districts, the implementation of integrated resource planning by the City of Wichita, and the subbasin water-resources management program in potential problem areas. These are all appropriate steps toward sustainable development. The Kansas examples show that local decision-making is the best way to fully account for local variability in water management. However, it is imperative that public education and involvement be encouraged, so that system complexities and constraints are better understood and overly simplistic solutions avoided. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.This paper presents a synthesis of water sustainability issues from the hydrologic perspective. It shows that safe yield is a flawed concept and that sustainability is an idea that is broadly used but perhaps not well understood. In general, the sustainable yield of an aquifer must be considerably less than recharge if adequate amounts of water are to be available to sustain both the quantity and quality of streams, springs, wetlands, and ground-water-dependent ecosystems. To ensure sustainability, it is imperative that water limits be established based on hydrologic principles of mass balance. To establish water-use policies and planning horizons, the transition curves of aquifer systems from ground-water storage depletion to induced recharge of surface water need to be developed. Present-day numerical models are capable of generating such transition curves. Several idealized examples of aquifer systems show how this could be done. Because of the complexity of natural systems and the uncertainties in characterizing them, the current philosophy underlying sustainable management of water resources is based on the interconnected systems approach and on adaptive management. Examples of water-resources management from Kansas illustrate some of these concepts in a real-world setting. Some of the hallmarks of Kansas water management are the formation of local ground-water management districts, the adoption of minimum streamflow standards, the use of modified safe-yield policies in some districts, the implementation of integrated resource planning by the City of Wichita, and the subbasin water-resources management program in potential problem areas. These are all appropriate steps toward sustainable development. The Kansas examples show that local decision-making is the best way to fully account for local variability in water management. However, it is imperative that public education and involv

Journal of Hydrology

PHAST version 2-A program for simulating groundwater flow, solute transport, and multicomponent geochemical reactions

The computer program PHAST (PHREEQC And HST3D) simulates multicomponent, reactive solute transport in three-dimensional saturated groundwater flow systems. PHAST is a versatile groundwater flow and solute-transport simulator with capabilities to model a wide range of equilibrium and kinetic geochemical reactions. The flow and transport calculations are based on a modified version of HST3D that is restricted to constant fluid density and constant temperature. The geochemical reactions are simulated with the geochemical model PHREEQC, which is embedded in PHAST. Major enhancements in PHAST Version 2 allow spatial data to be defined in a combination of map and grid coordinate systems, independent of a specific model grid (without node-by-node input). At run time, aquifer properties are interpolated from the spatial data to the model grid; regridding requires only redefinition of the grid without modification of the spatial data. PHAST is applicable to the study of natural and contaminated groundwater systems at a variety of scales ranging from laboratory experiments to local and regional field scales. PHAST can be used in studies of migration of nutrients, inorganic and organic contaminants, and radionuclides; in projects such as aquifer storage and recovery or engineered remediation; and in investigations of the natural rock/water interactions in aquifers. PHAST is not appropriate for unsaturated-zone flow, multiphase flow, or density-dependent flow. A variety of boundary conditions are available in PHAST to simulate flow and transport, including specified-head, flux (specified-flux), and leaky (head-dependent) conditions, as well as the special cases of rivers, drains, and wells. Chemical reactions in PHAST include (1) homogeneous equilibria using an ion-association or Pitzer specific interaction thermodynamic model; (2) heterogeneous equilibria between the aqueous solution and minerals, ion exchange sites, surface complexation sites, solid solutions, and gases; and (3) kinetic reactions with rates that are a function of solution composition. The aqueous model (elements, chemical reactions, and equilibrium constants), minerals, exchangers, surfaces, gases, kinetic reactants, and rate expressions may be defined or modified by the user. A number of options are available to save results of simulations to output files. The data may be saved in three formats: a format suitable for viewing with a text editor; a format suitable for exporting to spreadsheets and postprocessing programs; and in Hierarchical Data Format (HDF), which is a compressed binary format. Data in the HDF file can be visualized on Windows computers with the program Model Viewer and extracted with the utility program PHASTHDF; both programs are distributed with PHAST.

Techniques and Methods

Estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages of groundwater from selected sites: National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 1992–2005

This report documents selected age data interpreted from measured concentrations of environmental tracers in groundwater from 1,399 National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program groundwater sites across the United States. The tracers of interest were chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ), and tritium/helium-3 ( 3 H/ 3 He). Tracer data compiled for this analysis primarily were from wells representing two types of NAWQA groundwater studies—Land-Use Studies (shallow wells, usually monitoring wells, in recharge areas under dominant land-use settings) and Major-Aquifer Studies (wells, usually domestic supply wells, in principal aquifers and representing the shallow, used resource). Reference wells (wells representing groundwater minimally impacted by anthropogenic activities) associated with Land-Use Studies also were included. Tracer samples were collected between 1992 and 2005, although two networks sampled from 2006 to 2007 were included because of network-specific needs. Tracer data from other NAWQA Program components (Flow System Studies, which are assessments of processes and trends along groundwater flow paths, and various topical studies) were not compiled herein. Tracer data from NAWQA Land-Use Studies and Major-Aquifer Studies that previously had been interpreted and published are compiled herein (as piston-flow ages), but have not been reinterpreted. Tracer data that previously had not been interpreted and published are evaluated using documented methods and compiled with aqueous concentrations, equivalent atmospheric concentrations (for CFCs and SF 6 ), estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages, and selected ancillary data, such as redox indicators, well construction, and major dissolved gases (N 2 , O 2 , Ar, CH 4 , and CO 2 ). Tracer-based piston-flow ages documented in this report are simplistic representations of the tracer data. Tracer-based piston-flow ages are a convenient means of conceptualizing groundwater age. However, the piston-flow model is based on the potentially limiting assumptions that tracer transport is advective and that no mixing occurs. Additional uncertainties can arise from tracer degradation, sorption, contamination, or fractionation; terrigenic (natural) sources of tracers; spatially variable atmospheric tracer concentrations; and incomplete understanding of mechanisms of recharge or of the conditions under which atmospheric tracers were partitioned to recharge. The effects of some of these uncertainties are considered herein. For example, degradation, contamination, or fractionation often can be identified or inferred. However, detailed analysis of the effects of such uncertainties on the tracer-based piston-flow ages is constrained by sparse data and an absence of complementary lines of evidence, such as detailed solute transport simulations. Thus, the tracer-based piston-flow ages compiled in this report represent only an initial interpretation of the tracer data.

Scientific Investigations Report

Uncertainty in simulated groundwater-quality trends in transient flow

In numerical modeling of groundwater flow, the result of a given solution method is affected by the way in which transient flow conditions and geologic heterogeneity are simulated. An algorithm is demonstrated that simulates breakthrough curves at a pumping well by convolution-based particle tracking in a transient flow field for several synthetic basin-scale aquifers. In comparison to grid-based (Eulerian) methods, the particle (Lagrangian) method is better able to capture multimodal breakthrough caused by changes in pumping at the well, although the particle method may be apparently nonlinear because of the discrete nature of particle arrival times. Trial-and-error choice of number of particles and release times can perhaps overcome the apparent nonlinearity. Heterogeneous aquifer properties tend to smooth the effects of transient pumping, making it difficult to separate their effects in parameter estimation. Porosity, a new parameter added for advective transport, can be accurately estimated using both grid-based and particle-based methods, but predictions can be highly uncertain, even in the simple, nonreactive case.

Hydrogeology Journal

Flood resilience in paired US–Mexico border cities: A study of binational risk perceptions

Disastrous floods in the twin cities of Nogales, Arizona, USA, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico (collectively referred to as Ambos Nogales) occur annually in response to monsoonal summer rains. Flood-related hazards include property damage, impairment to sewage systems, sewage discharge, water contamination, erosion, and loss of life. Flood risk, particularly in Nogales, Sonora, is amplified by informal, “squatter” settlements in the watershed floodplain and associated development and infrastructure. The expected increase in precipitation intensity, resulting from climate change, poses further risk to flooding therein. We explore binational community perceptions of flooding, preferences for watershed management, and potential actions to address flooding and increase socio-ecological resilience in Ambos Nogales using standardized questionnaires and interviews to collect data about people and their preferences. We conducted 25 semi-structured interviews with local subject matter experts and gathered survey responses from community members in Ambos Nogales. Though survey response was limited, expected frequencies were high enough to conduct Chi-squared tests of independence to test for statistically significant relationships between survey variables. Results showed that respondents with previous experience with flooding corresponded with their level of concern about future floods. Additionally, respondents perceived greater flood-related risks from traveling across town and damage to vehicles than from inundation or damages to their homes or neighborhoods. Binationally, women respondents felt less prepared for future floods than men. On both sides of the border, community members and local experts agreed that Ambos Nogales lacks adequate preparation for future floods. To increase preparedness, they recommended flood risk education and awareness campaigns, implementation of green infrastructure, additional stormwater infrastructure (such as drainage systems), enhanced flood early warning systems, and reduction of flood flows through regulations to reduce the expansion of hard surfaces. This study contributes systematic collection of information about flood risk perceptions across an international border, including novel data regarding risks related to climate change and gender-based assessments of flood risk. Our finding of commonalities across both border communities, in perceptions of flood risk and in the types of risk reduction solutions recommended by community members, provides clear directions for flood risk education, outreach, and preparedness, as well as measures to enhance cross-border cooperation.

Arizona, Sonora

Preliminary assessment of injection, storage, and recovery of freshwater in the lower Hawthorn aquifer, Cape Coral, Florida

A preliminary assessment of subsurface injection, storage and recovery of fresh canal water was made in the naturally brackish lower Hawthorn aquifer in Cape Coral, southwestern Florida. A digital modeling approach was used for this preliminary assessment, incorporating available data on hydrologic conditions, aquifer properties, and water quality to simulate density-dependent ground-water flow and advective-dispersive transport of a conservative ground-water solute (chloride ion). A baseline simulation was used as reference to compare the effects of changing various operational factors on the recovery efficiency. A recovery efficiency of 64 percent was estimated for the baseline simulation. Based on the model, the recovery efficiency increases if the injection rate and recovery rates are increased and if the ratio of recovery rate to injection rate is increased. Recovery efficiency decreases if the amount of water injected is increased; slightly decreases if the storage time is increased; is not changed significantly if the water is injected to a specific flow zone; increases with successive cycles of injection, storage, and recovery; and decreases if the chloride concentrations in either the injection water or native aquifer water are increased. In everal hypothetical tests, the recovery efficiency fluctuated between 22 and about 100 percent. Two successive cycles could bring the recovery efficiency from 60 to about 80 percent. Interlayer solute mass movement across the upper and lower boundaries seems to be the most important factor affecting the recovery efficiency. A sensitivity analysis was performed applying a technique in which the change in the various factors and the corresponding model responses are normalized so that meaningful comparisons among the responses could be made. The general results from the sensitivity analysis indicated that the permeabilities of the upper and lower flow zones were the most important factors that produced the greatest changes in the relative sensitivity of the recovery efficiency. Almost equally significant changes occurred in the relative sensitivity of the recovery efficiency when all porosity values of the upper and lower flow zones and the leaky confining units and the vertical anisotropy ratio were changed. The advective factors are the most important in the Cape Coral area according to the sensitivity analysis. However, the dispersivity values used in the model were extrapolated from studies conducted at the nearby Lee County Water Treatment Plant, and these values might not be representative of the actual dispersive characteristics of the lower Hawthorn aquifer in the Cape Coral area.

Florida

Examining the influence of heterogeneous porosity fields on conservative solute transport

It is widely recognized that groundwater flow and solute transport in natural media are largely controlled by heterogeneities. In the last three decades, many studies have examined the effects of heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields on flow and transport processes, but there has been much less attention to the influence of heterogeneous porosity fields. In this study, we use porosity and particle size measurements from boreholes at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site (BHRS) to evaluate the importance of characterizing the spatial structure of porosity and grain size data for solute transport modeling. Then we develop synthetic hydraulic conductivity fields based on relatively simple measurements of porosity from borehole logs and grain size distributions from core samples to examine and compare the characteristics of tracer transport through these fields with and without inclusion of porosity heterogeneity. In particular, we develop horizontal 2D realizations based on data from one of the less heterogeneous units at the BHRS to examine effects where spatial variations in hydraulic parameters are not large. The results indicate that the distributions of porosity and the derived hydraulic conductivity in the study unit resemble fractal normal and lognormal fields respectively. We numerically simulate solute transport in stochastic fields and find that spatial variations in porosity have significant effects on the spread of an injected tracer plume including a significant delay in simulated tracer concentration histories.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology