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Results for “Journal of Geophysical Research- Oceans”

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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2009

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2010

Sediment transport under wave groups: Relative importance between nonlinear waveshape and nonlinear boundary layer streaming

Sediment transport under nonlinear waves in a predominately sheet flow condition is investigated using a two-phase model. Specifically, we study the relative importance between the nonlinear waveshape and nonlinear boundary layer streaming on cross-shore sand transport. Terms in the governing equations because of the nonlinear boundary layer process are included in this one-dimensional vertical (1DV) model by simplifying the two-dimensional vertical (2DV) ensemble-averaged two-phase equations with the assumption that waves propagate without changing their form. The model is first driven by measured time series of near-bed flow velocity because of a wave group during the SISTEX99 large wave flume experiment and validated with the measured sand concentration in the sheet flow layer. Additional studies are then carried out by including and excluding the nonlinear boundary layer terms. It is found that for the grain diameter (0.24 mm) and high-velocity skewness wave condition considered here, nonlinear waveshape (e.g., skewness) is the dominant mechanism causing net onshore transport and nonlinear boundary layer streaming effect only causes an additional 36% onshore transport. However, for conditions of relatively low-wave skewness and a stronger offshore directed current, nonlinear boundary layer streaming plays a more critical role in determining the net transport. Numerical experiments further suggest that the nonlinear boundary layer streaming effect becomes increasingly important for finer grain. When the numerical model is driven by measured near-bed flow velocity in a more realistic surf zone setting, model results suggest nonlinear boundary layer processes may nearly double the onshore transport purely because of nonlinear waveshape. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2009

Northern Monterey Bay upwelling shadow front: Observations of a coastally and surface-trapped buoyant plume

During the upwelling season in central California, northwesterly winds along the coast produce a strong upwelling jet that originates at Point A??o Nuevo and flows southward across the mouth of Monterey Bay. A convergent front with a mean temperature change of 3.77 ?? 0.29??C develops between the warm interior waters and the cold offshore upwelling jet. To examine the forcing mechanisms driving the location and movement of the upwelling shadow front and its effects on biological communities in northern Monterey Bay, oceanographic conditions were monitored using cross-shelf mooring arrays, drifters, and hydrographic surveys along a 20 km stretch of coast extending northwestward from Santa Cruz, California, during the upwelling season of 2007 (May-September). The alongshore location of the upwelling shadow front at the northern edge of the bay was driven by: regional wind forcing, through an alongshore pressure gradient; buoyancy forces due to the temperature change across the front; and local wind forcing (the diurnal sea breeze). The upwelling shadow front behaved as a surface-trapped buoyant current, which is superimposed on a poleward barotropic current, moving up and down the coast up to several kilometers each day. We surmise that the front is advected poleward by a preexisting northward barotropic current of 0.10 m s -1 that arises due to an alongshore pressure gradient caused by focused upwelling at Point A??o Nuevo. The frontal circulation (onshore surface currents) breaks the typical two-dimensional wind-driven, cross-shelf circulation (offshore surface currents) and introduces another way for water, and the material it contains (e.g., pollutants, larvae), to go across the shelf toward shore.Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2011

Hydrodynamics of a bathymetrically complex fringing coral reef embayment: Wave climate, in situ observations, and wave prediction

This paper examines the relationship between offshore wave climate and nearshore waves and currents at Hanalei Bay, Hawaii, an exposed bay fringed with coral reefs. Analysis of both offshore in situ data and numerical hindcasts identify the predominance of two wave conditions: a mode associated with local trade winds and an episodic pattern associated with distant source long-period swells. Analysis of 10 months of in situ data within the bay show that current velocities are up to an order of magnitude greater during long-period swell episodes than during trade wind conditions; overall circulation patterns are also fundamentally different. The current velocities are highly correlated with incident wave heights during the swell episodes, while they are not during the modal trade wind conditions. A phase-averaged wave model was implemented with the dual purpose of evaluating application to bathymetrically complex fringing reefs and to examine the propagation of waves into the nearshore in an effort to better explain the large difference in observed circulation during the two offshore wave conditions. The prediction quality of this model was poorer for the episodic condition than for the lower-energy mode, however, it illustrated how longer-period swells are preferentially refracted into the bay and make available far more nearshore wave energy to drive currents compared to waves during modal conditions. The highly episodic circulation, the nature of which is dependent on complex refraction patterns of episodic, long-period swell has implications for flushing and sediment dynamics for incised fringing reef-lined bays that characterize many high islands at low latitudes around the world.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2010

Wind-enhanced resuspension in the shallow waters of South San Francisco Bay: Mechanisms and potential implications for cohesive sediment transport

We investigated the driving forces of sediment dynamics at the shoals in South San Francisco Bay. Two stations were deployed along a line perpendicular to a 14 m deep channel, 1000 and 2000 m from the middle of the channel. Station depths were 2.59 and 2.19 m below mean lower low water, respectively. We used acoustic Doppler velocimeters for the simultaneous determination of current velocities, turbulence, sediment concentration and fluxes. Maximum current shear velocities were 0.015 m s −1 at the station further from the channel (closer to the shore) and 0.02 m s −1 at the station closer to the channel. Peak wave-induced shear velocities exceeded 0.015 m s −1 at both stations. Maximum sediment concentrations were around 30 g m −3 during calm periods (root mean square wave height <0.15 m). During wavy periods, sediment concentrations increased to 100 g m −3 and sediment fluxes were 5 times higher than in calm conditions (0.02 g m −2 s −1 versus >0.10 g m −2 s −1 ) at the station further from the channel 0.36 m above the bed. Closer to the channel, sediment concentrations and vertical fluxes due to wind wave resuspension were persistently lower (maximum concentrations around 50 g m −3 and maximum fluxes around 0.04 g m −2 s −1 ). Most resuspension events occurred during flood tides that followed wave events during low water. Although wave motions are able to resuspend sediment into the wave boundary layer at low tide, the observed large increases in sediment fluxes are due to the nonlinear interaction of wind waves and the tidal currents.

California↗
USGS2010

Sediment transport and deposition on a river-dominated tidal flat: An idealized model study

A 3-D hydrodynamic model is used to investigate how different size classes of river-derived sediment are transported, exported and trapped on an idealized, river-dominated tidal flat. The model is composed of a river channel flanked by sloping tidal flats, a configuration motivated by the intertidal region of the Skagit River mouth in Washington State, United States. It is forced by mixed tides and a pulse of freshwater and sediment with various settling velocities. In this system, the river not only influences stratification but also contributes a significant cross-shore transport. As a result, the bottom stress is strongly ebb-dominated in the channel because of the seaward advance of strong river flow as the tidal flats drain during ebbs. Sediment deposition patterns and mass budgets are sensitive to settling velocity. The lateral sediment spreading scales with an advective distance (settling time multiplied by lateral flow speed), thereby confining the fast settling sediment classes in the channel. Residual sediment transport is landward on the flats, because of settling lag, but is strongly seaward in the channel. The seaward transport mainly occurs during big ebbs and is controlled by a length scale ratio L d / X WL , where L d is a cross-shore advective distance (settling time multiplied by river outlet velocity), and X WL is the immersed cross-shore length of the intertidal zone. Sediment trapping requires L d / X WL < 1, leading to more trapping for the faster settling classes. Sensitivity studies show that including stratification and reducing tidal range both favor sediment trapping, whereas varying channel geometries and asymmetry of tides has relatively small impacts. Implications of the modeling results on the south Skagit intertidal region are discussed.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2011

A behavior-oriented dynamic model for sandbar migration and 2DH evolution

A nonlinear model is developed to study the time‐dependent relationship between the alongshore variability of a sandbar, a ( t ), and alongshore‐averaged sandbar position, x c ( t ). Sediment transport equations are derived from energetics‐based formulations. A link between this continuous physical representation and a parametric form describing the migration of sandbars of constant shape is established through a simple transformation of variables. The model is driven by offshore wave conditions. The parametric equations are dynamically coupled such that changes in one term (i.e., x c ) drive changes in the other (i.e., a ( t )). The model is tested on 566 days of data from Palm Beach, New South Wales, Australia. Using weighted nonlinear least squares to estimate best fit model coefficients, the model explained 49% and 41% of the variance in measured x c and a ( t ), respectively. Comparisons against a 1‐D horizontal (1DH) version of the model showed significant improvements when the 2DH terms were included (1DH and 2DH Brier skill scores were −0.12 and 0.42, respectively). Onshore bar migration was not predicted in the 1DH model, while the 2DH model correctly predicted onshore migration in the presence of 2DH morphology and allowed the bar to remain closer to shore for a given amount of breaking, providing an important hysteresis to the system. The model is consistent with observations that active bar migration occurs under breaking waves with onshore migration occurring at timescales of days to weeks and increasing 2DH morphology, while offshore migration occurs rapidly under high waves and coincides with a reduction in 2DH morphology.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2012

Utilizing multichannel electrical resistivity methods to examine the dynamics of the fresh water–seawater interface in two Hawaiian groundwater systems

Multichannel electrical resistivity (ER) measurements were conducted at two contrasting coastal sites in Hawaii to obtain new information on the spatial scales and dynamics of the fresh water&ndash;seawater interface and rates of coastal groundwater exchange. At Kiholo Bay (located on the dry, Kona side of the Big Island) and at a site in Maunalua Bay (Oahu), there is an evidence for abundant submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). However, the hydrologic and geologic controls on coastal groundwater discharge are likely to be different at these two sites. While at Kiholo Bay SGD is predominantly through lava tubes, at the Maunalua Bay site exchange occurs mostly through nearshore submarine springs. In order to calculate SGD fluxes, it is important to understand the spatial and temporal scales of coastal groundwater exchange. From ER time series data, subsurface salinity distributions were calculated using site-specific formation factors. A salinity mass balance box model was then used to calculate rates of point source (i.e., spatially discreet) and total fresh water discharge. From these data, mean SGD rates were calculated for Kiholo Bay (&sim;9,200 m 3 /d) and for the Maunalua Bay site (&sim;5,900 m 3 /d). While such results are on the same order of magnitude to geochemical tracer-derived SGD rates, the ER SGD rates provide enhanced details of coastal groundwater exchange that can enable a more cohesive whole watershed perspective.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2012

Use of vertical temperature gradients for prediction of tidal flat sediment characteristics

Sediment characteristics largely govern tidal flat morphologic evolution; however, conventional methods of investigating spatial variability in lithology on tidal flats are difficult to employ in these highly dynamic regions. In response, a series of laboratory experiments was designed to investigate the use of temperature diffusion toward sediment characterization. A vertical thermistor array was used to quantify temperature gradients in simulated tidal flat sediments of varying compositions. Thermal conductivity estimates derived from these arrays were similar to measurements from a standard heated needle probe, which substantiates the thermistor methodology. While the thermal diffusivities of dry homogeneous sediments were similar, diffusivities for saturated homogeneous sediments ranged approximately one order of magnitude. The thermal diffusivity of saturated sand was five times the thermal diffusivity of saturated kaolin and more than eight times the thermal diffusivity of saturated bentonite. This suggests that vertical temperature gradients can be used for distinguishing homogeneous saturated sands from homogeneous saturated clays and perhaps even between homogeneous saturated clay types. However, experiments with more realistic tidal flat mixtures were less discriminating. Relationships between thermal diffusivity and percent fines for saturated mixtures varied depending upon clay composition, indicating that clay hydration and/or water content controls thermal gradients. Furthermore, existing models for the bulk conductivity of sediment mixtures were improved only through the use of calibrated estimates of homogeneous end-member conductivity and water content values. Our findings suggest that remotely sensed observations of water content and thermal diffusivity could only be used to qualitatively estimate tidal flat sediment characteristics.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2012

Currents, drag, and sediment transport induced by a tsunami

We report observations of water surface elevation, currents, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) from a 10-m deep site on the inner shelf in northern Monterey Bay during the arrival of the 2010 Chile tsunami. Velocity profiles were measured from 3.5 m above the bed (mab) to the surface at 2 min intervals, and from 0.1 to 0.7 mab at 1 Hz. SSC was determined from the acoustic backscatter of the near-bed profiler. The initial tsunami waves were directed cross shore and had a period of approximately 16 min. Maximum wave height was 1.1 m, and maximum current speed was 0.36 m/s. During the strongest onrush, near-bed velocities were clearly influenced by friction and a logarithmic boundary layer developed, extending more than 0.3 mab. We estimated friction velocity and bed shear stress from the logarithmic profiles. The logarithmic structure indicates that the flow can be characterized as quasi-steady at these times. At other phases of the tsunami waves, the magnitude of the acceleration term was significant in the near-bed momentum equation, indicating unsteady flow. The maximum tsunami-induced bed shear stress (0.4 N/m 2 ) exceeded the critical shear stress for the medium-grained sand on the seafloor. Cross-shore sediment flux was enhanced by the tsunami. Oscillations of water surface elevation and currents continued for several days. The oscillations were dominated by resonant frequencies, the most energetic of which was the fundamental longitudinal frequency of Monterey Bay. The maximum current speed (hourly-timescale) in 18 months of observations occurred four hours after the tsunami arrived.

California↗
USGS2012

Validation of a coupled wave-flow model in a high-energy setting: the mouth of the Columbia River

A monthlong time series of wave, current, salinity, and suspended-sediment measurements was made at five sites on a transect across the Mouth of Columbia River (MCR). These data were used to calibrate and evaluate the performance of a coupled hydrodynamic and wave model for the MCR based on the Delft3D modeling system. The MCR is a dynamic estuary inlet in which tidal currents, river discharge, and wave-driven currents are all important. Model tuning consisted primarily of spatial adjustments to bottom drag coefficients. In combination with (near-) default parameter settings, the MCR model application is able to simulate the dominant features in the tidal flow, salinity and wavefields observed in field measurements. The wave-orbital averaged method for representing the current velocity profile in the wave model is considered the most realistic for the MCR. The hydrodynamic model is particularly effective in reproducing the observed vertical residual and temporal variations in current structure. Density gradients introduce the observed and modeled reversal of the mean flow at the bed and augment mean and peak flow in the upper half of the water column. This implies that sediment transport during calmer summer conditions is controlled by density stratification and is likely net landward due to the reversal of flow near the bed. The correspondence between observed and modeled hydrodynamics makes this application a tool to investigate hydrodynamics and associated sediment transport.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2018

Three-dimensional modeling of fine sediment transport by waves and currents in a shallow estuary

A suspended sediment transport model is implemented in the unstructured‐grid SUNTANS model and applied to study fine‐grained sediment transport in South San Francisco Bay. The model enables calculation of suspension of bottom sediment based on combined forcing of tidal currents and wind waves. We show that accurate results can be obtained by employing two‐size classes which are representative of microflocs and macroflocs in the Bay. A key finding of the paper is that the critical calibration parameter is the ratio of the erosion of the microflocs to macroflocs from the bed. Different values of this erosion ratio are needed on the shallow shoals and deeper channels because of the different nature of the sediment dynamics in these regions. Application of a spatially variable erosion ratio and critical shear stress for erosion is shown to accurately reproduce observed suspended sediment concentration at four‐field sites located along a cross‐channel transect. The results reveal a stark contrast between the behavior of the suspended sediment concentration on the shoals and in the deep channel. Waves are shown to resuspend sediments on the shoals, although tidal and wind‐generated currents are needed to mix the thin wave‐driven suspensions into the water column. The contribution to the suspended sediment concentration in the channel by transport from the shoals is similar in magnitude to that due to local resuspension. However, the local contribution is in phase with strong bottom currents which resuspend the sediments, while the contribution from the shoals peaks during low‐water slack tide.

San Francisco Bay↗
USGS2018

Mechanisms of wave‐driven water level variability on reef‐fringed coastlines

Wave‐driven water level variability (and runup at the shoreline) is a significant cause of coastal flooding induced by storms. Wave runup is challenging to predict, particularly along tropical coral reef‐fringed coastlines due to the steep bathymetric profiles and large bottom roughness generated by reef organisms, which can violate assumptions in conventional models applied to open sandy coastlines. To investigate the mechanisms of wave‐driven water level variability on a reef‐fringed coastline, we performed a set of laboratory flume experiments on an along‐shore uniform bathymetric profile with and without bottom roughness. Wave setup and waves at frequencies lower than the incident sea‐swell forcing (infragravity waves) were found to be the dominant components of runup. These infragravity waves were positively correlated with offshore wave groups, signifying they were generated in the surf zone by the oscillation of the breakpoint. On the reef flat and at the shoreline, the low‐frequency waves formed a standing wave pattern with energy concentrated at the natural frequencies of the reef flat, indicating resonant amplification. Roughness elements used in the flume to mimic large reef bottom roughness reduced low frequency motions on the reef flat and reduced wave run up by 30% on average, compared to the runs over a smooth bed. These results provide insight into sea‐swell and infragravity wave transformation and wave setup dynamics on steep‐sloped coastlines, and the effect that future losses of reef bottom roughness may have on coastal flooding along reef‐fringed coasts.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2018

Field observations of alongshore runup variability under dissipative conditions in presence of a shoreline sandwave

Video measurements of runup were collected at low tide along several profiles covering an alongshore distance of 500 m. The morphology displayed a complex shape with a shoreline sandwave in the lower beach face of about 250 m long mirrored in the inner sandbar. Wave conditions were stationary and moderate (offshore height of 2 m and peak period of nearly 13 s) but yet dissipative. Runup energy was dominated by infragravity frequencies. Alongshore variations in runup (by a factor up to 3) observed both in the incident and infragravity bands were much higher than reported previously (e.g., Guedes et al., 2012, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2012.08.022 ; Ruggiero et al., 2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JC002160 ) while the alongshore variations in other environmental parameters (e.g., foreshore beach slope) appear to be much lower. Our data suggest that the beach morphology in the inner surf zone plays a crucial role by inducing rapid and significant modification in the incident wave pattern and the alongshore coherence length scales were consistent with the typical alongshore length scale of the morphology.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2018

Spatial and temporal variability of pCO2, carbon fluxes and saturation state on the West Florida Shelf

The West Florida Shelf (WFS) is a source of uncertainty for the Gulf of Mexico carbon budget. Data from the synthesis of approximately 135,000 pCO2 values from over 96 cruises from the WFS show that the shelf waters fluctuate between being a weak source to a weak sink of carbon with the atmosphere. Overall, the shelf acts as a weak source of CO2 at 0.32 ± 1.5 mol m-2 yr-1. Subregions, however, reveal slightly different trends, where surface waters associated with 40 m – 200 m isobaths in the northern and southern WFS are generally weak sinks all year, except for summer when they act as sources of CO2. Conversely, nearshore waters (< 40 m) are a source of CO2 are a source all year round, particularly the southern shallow waters. The pCO2 of seawater has been increasing at a rate of approximately 5.26 µatm yr-1 as compared to atmospheric pCO2 which has increased at a rate of about 1.7 µatm yr-1 from 1996 to 2016. The pCO2 and CO2 flux on the shelf from 1996 - 2016 have increased about 49 µatm, and 1.08 mol m-2, respectively. The WFS is emitting 9.23 Tg C yr-1, with the southern nearshore region emitting the most at 9.01 Tg C yr-1 and the northern region acting as a sink of -1.96 Tg C yr-1.

West Florida shelf↗
USGS2019

Submarine permafrost map in the arctic modelled using 1D transient heat flux (SuPerMAP)

Offshore permafrost plays a role in the global climate system, but observations of permafrost thickness, state, and composition are limited to specific regions. The current global permafrost map shows potential offshore permafrost distribution based on bathymetry and global sea level rise. As a first‐order estimate, we employ a heat transfer model to calculate the subsurface temperature field. Our model uses dynamic upper boundary conditions that synthesize Earth System Model air temperature, ice mass distribution and thickness, and global sea level reconstruction and applies globally distributed geothermal heat flux as a lower boundary condition. Sea level reconstruction accounts for differences between marine and terrestrial sedimentation history. Sediment composition and pore water salinity are integrated in the model. Model runs for 450 ka for cross‐shelf transects were used to initialize the model for circumarctic modeling for the past 50 ka. Preindustrial submarine permafrost (i.e., cryotic sediment), modeled at 12.5‐km spatial resolution, lies beneath almost 2.5 ×10 6 km 2 of the Arctic shelf. Our simple modeling approach results in estimates of distribution of cryotic sediment that are similar to the current global map and recent seismically delineated permafrost distributions for the Beaufort and Kara seas, suggesting that sea level is a first‐order determinant for submarine permafrost distribution. Ice content and sediment thermal conductivity are also important for determining rates of permafrost thickness change. The model provides a consistent circumarctic approach to map submarine permafrost and to estimate the dynamics of permafrost in the past.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2020

Seasonal variation in sediment delivery across the bay-marsh interface of an estuarine salt marsh

Sediment transport across bay–marsh interfaces depends on wave energy, vegetation, and marsh-edge morphology, and varies over a range of timescales. We investigated these dynamics in a tidal salt marsh with a gently-sloped, vegetated edge adjacent to northern San Francisco Bay. Spartina foliosa (cordgrass) inhabits the lower marsh and Salicornia pacifica (pickleweed) predominates on the marsh plain. We measured suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) and hydrodynamics in bay shallows and along a 100-m cross-shore transect in the marsh, during winter and summer. Four-year averaged accretion measured with marker-horizon plots was twice as great along the marsh transect as adjacent to a tidal creek, 50 m from the bay. We estimated deposition and trapping efficiency from the time-series data to assess its variation with season and wave energy. At high tide the transition zone (between cordgrass and pickleweed) was usually erosional, the pickleweed zone was depositional, and both erosion and deposition increased with wave energy, as did the landward position of maximum deposition. Erosion from the transition zone accounted for approximately one-third of the sediment flux into the pickleweed. In the pickleweed zone, SSC, the difference between flood- and ebb-tide SSC and trapping efficiency were greater in summer than winter for comparable wave conditions, which we attribute to increased sediment trapping by dense summer cordgrass. Moderate waves in summer (46%) accounted for more annual accretion in the pickleweed zone than larger waves in winter (28%), although the contribution of winter storms was diminished by the dry winter during the study.

California↗
USGS2020

Alkalinity in tidal tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay

Despite the important role of alkalinity in estuarine carbon cycling, the seasonal and decadal variability of alkalinity, particularly within multiple tidal tributaries of the same estuary, is poorly understood. Here we analyze more than 26,000 alkalinity measurements, mostly from the 1980s and 1990s, in the major tidal tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay, a large, coastal-plain estuary of eastern North America. The long-term means of alkalinity in tidal-fresh waters vary by a factor of 6 among seven tidal tributaries, reflecting the alkalinity of non-tidal rivers draining to these estuaries. At 25 stations, mostly in the Potomac River Estuary, we find significant long-term increasing trends that exceed the trends in the non-tidal rivers upstream of those stations. Box model calculations in the Potomac River Estuary indicate that the main cause of the estuarine trends is a declining alkalinity sink. The magnitude of this sink is consistent with a simple model of calcification by the invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea. More generally, in tidal tributaries fed by high-alkalinity non-tidal rivers, alkalinity is consumed, with sinks ranging from 8 to 27% of the upstream input. In contrast, tidal tributaries that are fed by low-alkalinity non-tidal rivers have sources of alkalinity amounting to 34 to 171% of the upstream input. For a single estuarine system, the Chesapeake Bay has diverse alkalinity dynamics and can thus serve as a laboratory for studying the numerous processes influencing alkalinity among the world’s estuaries.

Maryland, Virginia↗