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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Using eDNA metabarcoding to establish targets for freshwater fish composition following river restoration

Establishing realistic targets for fish community composition is needed to assess the effectiveness of river restoration projects. We used environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding with MiFish primers to obtain estimates of fish community composition across 17 sites upstream, downstream and within a restoration mitigation project area (Kaihotsu–Kasumi) located in the Shigenobu River system, Ehime Prefecture, Japan. We evaluate the benefits of using eDNA to quickly, sensitively, and extensively gather data to establish existing fish community composition in the restoration area, as well as potential future short-term, medium-term, and long-term targets of species assemblages that could realistically emerge following dispersal into the project area from upstream and downstream populations. We compare results from eDNA metabarcoding with species lists obtained from contemporaneous capture surveys and historical information. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling plots of community composition obtained from eDNA surveys showed that the Kaihotsu–Kasumi restoration area and surrounding river reaches were divided into three clusters: upper reaches, middle and lower reaches, and estuarine reaches. The Kaihotsu–Kasumi restoration area sites were included in the group containing the middle and lower reaches of the inflow and outflow rivers that were near the restoration area. We detected a total of twenty-six species in this group, twenty-one native species and five non-native species. Therefore, these native species were considered suitable as short-term target species with high potential for dispersal into Kaihotsu–Kasumi restoration area. By comparison, only 14 species would have been selected as target species based on capture surveys and historical literature. One factor increasing the resolution of our eDNA surveys was our ability to identify the presence of intraspecific lineages of Misgurnus anguillicaudatus (Clades A and B), which were missed by the capture surveys. These results indicate that the eDNA metabarcoding method can provide more comprehensive and realistic short-term target species estimates than capture surveys, as well as provide higher resolution monitoring through intraspecific lineage detection.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2023

The sands of time: Predicting sea level rise impacts to barrier island habitats

Coastal beach ecosystems support critical habitat for numerous species and are vulnerable to sea level rise. Sand beaches are spatially and temporally dynamic, making it difficult to accurately predict future habitat loss – estimates that are crucial as species are being assessed for protection. We mapped sand beach habitat on 12 focal barrier islands and low-lying beaches off the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA using two methods for comparison - a remotely sensed land cover and hand-digitized aerial imagery that was collected concurrently with digital elevation data. We then compared estimates of beach habitat lost to sea level rise between the two methods and compared this sensitivity to control mangrove islands. Predictions suggest that most of the beach habitat in our study areas will be underwater within the next century. These beaches represent critical nesting habitat for vulnerable vertebrate species such as the snowy plover ( Charadrius nivosus ) and the loggerhead turtle ( Caretta caretta ). Importantly, we found that for some islands, using remotely sensed land cover data led us to under- or over-estimate the amount of beach habitat lost to sea level rise relative to the digitized data because of the temporal mismatch between land cover and elevation data. In contrast, we found relatively little difference between methods in the amount of mangrove forest lost to sea level rise on nearby control islands. We suggest that using land cover data collected at the same time as elevation data can produce more accurate predictions of beach habitat inundation from sea level rise.

Florida↗
USGS2023

Effects of landcover on mesocarnivore density and detection rate along an urban to rural gradient

Human development has major implications for wildlife populations. Urban-exploiter species can benefit from human subsidized resources, whereas urban-avoider species can vanish from wildlife communities in highly developed areas. Therefore, understanding how the density of different species varies in response to landcover changes associated with human development can provide important insight into how wildlife communities are likely to change and provide a starting point for predicting the consequences of those changes. Here, we estimated the population density of five common mesocarnivore species (coyote ( Canis latrans ), bobcat ( Lynx rufus ), red fox ( Vulpes vulpes ), raccoon ( Procyon lotor ), and Virginia opossum ( Didelphis virginiana) ) at 12 study sites along an urban to rural gradient in the greater Fayetteville Area, Northwest Arkansas, USA between November 2021, and March 2022. At each study site, we applied the Random Encounter Model (REM) to data from camera traps to calculate the density of five focal species. Coyote density ranged from 0.5 to 0.93 individuals/km 2 . Raccoon density ranged from 0.19 to 20.25 individuals/km 2 . Bobcat density ranged from 0 to 1.06 individuals/km 2 . Opossum density ranged from 0 to 3.43 individuals/km 2 . Red fox density ranged from 0 to 0.10 individuals/km 2 . Coyote and raccoon density showed a positive relationship with anthropogenic noise. Opossum density increased with HUD. Red Fox and bobcat density showed a negative relationship with forest area and a positive relationship with distance to water respectively, however confidence intervals for both species overlapped zero. The density estimates we report based on camera trap data of unmarked animals were consistent with reports from the literature for these same species derived from traditional methods, providing additional support to the REM as a viable, non-invasive method to calculate density of unmarked species. Our second analysis consisted of taking camera level density estimates and treating them as detection rates corrected for camera viewshed and animal movement. Coyote and raccoon detection rate showed a positive relationship with anthropogenic noise. Red Fox detection rate was positively related to developed open space, and negatively related to distance to water. Similarly to red fox, opossums detection rate was higher in areas with more developed open space. We found no evidence that bobcat density or detection rate varied with any of the landcover or anthropogenic variables we measured.

Arkansas↗
USGS2024

Strengths and opportunities in gopher tortoise population modeling: Reply to Loope et al.

We read the letter written by Loope et al. (2024) that evaluated the predictive population model for gopher tortoises from our previous paper ( Folt et al., 2022 ), and, despite criticism raised, we contend that our effort remains a valuable contribution. In our previous paper, we performed an unprecedented and exhaustive review of gopher tortoise population demography, which synthesized a large volume of literature about the current state of knowledge on gopher tortoise population dynamics and factors that influence demographic rates, including anthropogenic threats ( Folt et al., 2022 ). We then built a predictive population model that examined the relative influence of multiple anthropogenic stressors on tortoise populations into the future, while accounting for important geographic variation ( Folt et al., 2022 ).

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2025

Predicting bat roosts in bridges using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

Human-built structures can provide important habitat for wildlife, but predicting which structures are most likely to be used remains challenging. To evaluate the predictive capabilities of data-driven ensemble modeling approaches, we conducted surveys for bats and signs of bat use, such as urine and guano staining, at bridges across the southwestern United States. We developed a bat roost discovery tool using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and evaluated the predictive ability of this model against other commonly used approaches. We found that the lack of nearby water resources was associated with a lower predicted probability of bat presence or signs of bat use at bridges. While the presence of nearby water resources was associated with higher average predicted probability of bat presence or signs of bat use, high uncertainty surrounding these estimates indicates that other factors also play a role in determining which bridge roosts bats are more likely to use. As such, our model could be particularly useful for predicting which bridges can be excluded from survey efforts due to low probability of bat presence or signs of bat use. We extrapolated our model to unsurveyed bridges across the study region and provide an interactive dashboard application interface for the exploration of these results. Overall, this study demonstrates the application of BART as a predictive tool for prioritizing future bridge surveys for bats roosting in transportation structures.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas↗
USGS2025

Reproductive habitat mismatch influences chytrid infection dynamics in a tropical amphibian community

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) has been decimating amphibian populations globally; previous work indicates that infection risk increases with moisture and thermal mismatch from a host’s optimum. We hypothesized that, in addition to these abiotic influences, mismatch of hosts from their reproductive habitat heightens infection risk via exposure and/or susceptibility mechanisms. We evaluated this “reproductive habitat mismatch hypothesis” by quantifying the interplay of host breeding mode, habitat, and rainfall on Bd infection dynamics using two years of frog survey data—including swab data for 3427 captures representing 44 species—from Brazil’s Atlantic Forest. We modeled infection prevalence, infection intensity, and the number of frogs captured as a function of rainfall, reproductive mode (aquatic or terrestrial), and habitat (aquatic or terrestrial) using hierarchical models. High rainfall was associated with increases in infection prevalence and infection intensity; however, these increases were particularly apparent for species in habitats that were mismatched from the species’ reproductive habitat. Tropical regions experiencing increases in precipitation will likely see higher Bd risk, and our results indicate that such increases in rainfall will be particularly problematic for species that are forced to move from their reproductive habitats by factors such as habitat loss or thermal stress.

Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar–Núcleo Santa Virgí↗
USGS2026

Hakalau’s moving castle: How climate change and restoration are shifting an island fortress for forest birds

Hakalau Forest Unit of the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (hereafter, Hakalau) protects the largest area with the highest endemic forest bird diversity in Hawaiʻi, including four federally listed species. Hakalau’s higher elevation montane forest provides refuge from avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum ), a primary driver of Hawaiian honeycreeper extinctions. However, recent declines in Hakalau’s birds at lower elevations could indicate that conditions have become suitable for disease vector Culex quinquefasciatus . We evaluated the statuses of Hakalau’s bird populations in the context of recent climatic changes using new survey data from point-transect distance sampling, producing abundance estimates from 1999 to 2024. We stratified our analysis across four elevation ranges (<1500 m, 1500–1700 m, 1700–1900 m, and >1900 m) and assessed trends for each species using state-space models (SSMs). We constrained population trajectories to be biologically realistic by incorporating population dynamic models within the SSMs. We observed highly species-specific abundance trends below 1500 m, predominantly stable to upward trends within 1500–1700 m, stable trends within 1700–1900 m, and upward trends above 1900 m. Declines in Hawaiʻi ʻamakihi ( Chlorodrepanis v. virens ) and endangered ʻakiapōlāʻau ( Hemignathus wilsoni ) abundance coincided with lengthening warm seasonal temperatures indicative of shrinking disease-free habitat below 1700 m. Above 1900 m, however, increases in nearly all species indicate that reforestation has likely restored disease-free habitat since 1999. While most species were stable to increasing overall, surveillance for mosquitoes and disease at lower elevations, documenting changes in habitat, and continuing bird population monitoring can help to gauge their long-term persistence at Hakalau.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Restoration based on cost-benefit optimization: A grasslands pilot study

Ecological restoration is essential to meeting global biodiversity conservation goals. Given limited conservation budgets, deciding where to restore habitat is a key challenge for the coming decade. We developed a spatially explicit framework to optimize ecological restoration site selection by integrating land use history, species distributions, and economic costs. The framework includes the following steps: identify potential restoration area based on relevant environmental measures like land use; identify species of interest; calculate restoration benefits by modeling habitat and climate suitability and estimating reduced extinction risk associated with restoring a particular land parcel based on a modified species–area relationship; aggregate benefits across species; and compare to parcel-level land acquisition costs. We applied linear programming to maximize conservation benefit/restoration cost ratios to identify optimized restoration sites. We illustrate this approach using a case study for highly threatened grassland ecosystems in the Great Plains region of Kansas, USA. We selected five grassland animal species (greater prairie chickens [ Tympanuchus cupido ], lesser prairie chickens [ Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ], swift fox [ Vulpes velox ], pronghorn [ Antilocapra americana ], and regal fritillary [ Speyeria idalia ]) as indicators of restoration benefit across taxa. For the indicator species that we chose, shortgrass and mixed-grass prairies had the highest conservation benefit to cost ratio. Setting a minimum restoration threshold for each habitat type allowed us to identify high-priority tallgrass prairie sites. Despite increasing interest in ecological restoration, optimizing restoration site selection is challenging because one must consider habitat features that do not currently exist. The modeling approach described here is flexible and can be updated for different ecosystems, species, and conservation priorities. We outline potential alterations that can be made in future analyses, depending on desired restoration goals.

Kansas↗
USGS2022

Space use and site fidelity of wintering whooping cranes on the Texas Gulf Coast

The Aransas-Wood Buffalo population (the only non-reintroduced, migratory population) of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) overwinters along the Texas Gulf Coast, USA. Understanding whooping crane space use on the wintering grounds reveals essential aspects of this species' ecology, which subsequently assists with conservation. Using global positioning system telemetry data from marked whooping cranes during 2009–2017, we fit continuous-time stochastic process models to describe movement and home range using autocorrelated kernel density estimation (AKDE) and explored variation in home range size in relation to age, sex, reproductive status, and drought conditions. We used the Bhattacharyya coefficient of overlap and distance between home range centroids to quantify site fidelity. We examined the effects of time between winter home ranges and the sex of the crane on site fidelity using Bayesian mixed-effects beta regression. Winter whooping crane 95% AKDE home range size averaged 30.1 ± 45.2 (SD) km 2 (median = 14.3, range = 1.1–308.6). Home ranges of sub-adult females were approximately 2 times larger than those of sub-adult males or families. As drought worsened, home ranges typically expanded. Between consecutive years, the home ranges of an adult crane exhibited 68 ± 31% overlap (site fidelity), but fidelity to winter sites declined in subsequent winters. The overlap of adult home ranges with the nearest unrelated family averaged 33 ± 28%. As a whooping crane aged, overlap with its winter home range as a juvenile declined, regardless of sex. By 4 years of age, a whooping crane had approximately 14 ± 28% overlap with its juvenile winter home range. Limited evidence suggested male whooping cranes return to within 2 km of their juvenile home range by their fifth winter. Previous data obtained from aerial surveys led ecologists to assume that whooping crane families normally used small areas (~2 km 2 ) and expressed persistent site fidelity. Our analyses showed <8% of families had home ranges ≤2 km 2 , with the average area 15 times greater, and waning site fidelity over time. Our work represents an analysis of whooping crane home ranges for this population, identifying past misconceptions of winter space use and resulting in better estimates of space requirements for future conservation efforts.

Texas↗
USGS2024

Integrative phylogenetic, phylogeographic and morphological characterisation of the Unio crassus species complex reveals cryptic diversity with important conservation implications

The global decline of freshwater mussels and their crucial ecological services highlight the need to understand their phylogeny, phylogeography and patterns of genetic diversity to guide conservation efforts. Such knowledge is urgently needed for Unio crassus , a highly imperilled species originally widespread throughout Europe and southwest Asia. Recent studies have resurrected several species from synonymy based on mitochondrial data, revealing U. crassus to be a complex of cryptic species. To address long-standing taxonomic uncertainties hindering effective conservation, we integrate morphometric, phylogenetic, and phylogeographic analyses to examine species diversity within the U. crassus complex across its entire range. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (815 specimens from 182 populations) and, for selected specimens, whole mitogenome sequences and Anchored Hybrid Enrichment (AHE) data on ∼600 nuclear loci. Mito-nuclear discordance was detected, consistent with mitochondrial DNA gene flow between some species during the Pliocene and Pleistocene. Fossil-calibrated phylogenies based on AHE data support a Mediterranean origin for the U. crassus complex in the Early Miocene. The results of our integrative approach support 12 species in the group: the previously recognised Unio bruguierianus , Unio carneus, Unio crassus , Unio damascensis , Unio ionicus , Unio sesirmensis , and Unio tumidiformis , and the reinstatement of five nominal taxa: Unio desectus stat. rev. , Unio gontierii stat. rev. , Unio mardinensis stat. rev. , Unio nanus stat. rev. , and Unio vicarius stat. rev. Morphometric analyses of shell contours reveal important morphospace overlaps among these species, highlighting cryptic, but geographically structured, diversity. The distribution, taxonomy, phylogeography, and conservation of each species are succinctly described.

Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution↗
USGS2024

Imperiled Great Basin terminal lakes: Synthesizing ecological and hydrological science gaps and research needs for waterbird conservation

Terminal lakes are declining globally because of human water demands, drought, and climate change. Through literature synthesis and feedback from the resource and conservation community, we review the state of research for terminal lakes in the Great Basin of the United States, which support millions of waterbirds annually, to prioritize ecological and hydrologic information needs. From an ecological perspective, research priorities include measuring the underlying differences in waterbird resource selection and distribution, migratory connectivity, abiotic factors that interact with prey densities to affect prey availability, and waterbird fitness or demography. Integrated links between water availability, water quality, and food webs are lacking in the literature. Scarce water availability data hinder the current knowledge of water extraction and evapotranspiration rates. Research that can address these priorities would help advance our understanding of how the Great Basin terminal lakes function as an interrelated system and support conservation efforts to reverse the decline of these critical lakes.

California, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
USGS2013

Conservation and Ecology of Marine Forage Fishes--Proceedings of a Research Symposium, September 2012

Locally and globally, there is growing recognition of the critical roles that herring, smelt, sand lance, eulachon, and other forage fishes play in marine ecosystems. Scientific and resource management entities throughout the Salish Sea, agree that extensive information gaps exist, both in basic biological knowledge and parameters critical to fishery management. Communication and collaboration among researchers also is inadequate. Building on the interest and enthusiasm generated by recent forage fish workshops and symposia around the region, the 2012 Research Symposium on the Conservation and Ecology of Marine Forage Fishes was designed to elucidate practical recommendations for science and policy needs and actions, and spur further collaboration in support for the precautionary management of forage fish. This dynamic and productive event was a joint venture of the Northwest Straits Commission Forage Fish Program, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), and The Puget Sound Partnership. The symposium was held on September 12–14, 2012, at the University of Washington, Friday Harbor Laboratories campus. Sixty scientists, graduate students, and fisheries policy experts convened; showcasing ongoing research, conservation, and management efforts targeting forage fish from regional and national perspectives. The primary objectives of this event were to: (1) review current research and management related to marine forage fish species; and (2) identify priority science and policy needs and actions for Washington, British Columbia, and the entire West Coast. Given the diversity of knowledge, interests, and disciplines surrounding forage fish on both sides of the international border, the organizing committee made a concerted effort to contact many additional experts who, although unable to attend, provided valuable insights and ideas to the symposium structure and discussions. The value of the symposium format was highlighted in the closing remarks delivered by Joseph Gaydos, SeaDoc Society and Chair of the Puget Sound Science Panel. Dr. Gaydos’ presentation referenced the 2011 paper by Murray Rudd in the journal Conservation Biology , “How research-prioritization exercises affect conservation policy.” The paper points out that policy makers and funding agencies are more likely to gain a full understanding of issues when they are presented with research findings from an aligned research program. That is, compared to unaligned research strategies, where work is not based on identified research priorities.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2012

Are all intertidal wetlands naturally created equal? Bottlenecks, thresholds and knowledge gaps to mangrove and saltmarsh ecosystems

Intertidal wetlands such as saltmarshes and mangroves provide numerous important ecological functions, though they are in rapid and global decline. To better conserve and restore these wetland ecosystems, we need an understanding of the fundamental natural bottlenecks and thresholds to their establishment and long-term ecological maintenance. Despite inhabiting similar intertidal positions, the biological traits of these systems differ markedly in structure, phenology, life history, phylogeny and dispersal, suggesting large differences in biophysical interactions. By providing the first systematic comparison between saltmarshes and mangroves, we unravel how the interplay between species-specific life-history traits, biophysical interactions and biogeomorphological feedback processes determine where, when and what wetland can establish, the thresholds to long-term ecosystem stability, and constraints to genetic connectivity between intertidal wetland populations at the landscape level. To understand these process interactions, research into the constraints to wetland development, and biological adaptations to overcome these critical bottlenecks and thresholds requires a truly interdisciplinary approach.

Biological Reviews↗
USGS2000

Sea otters past and present perspectives

Sea otters have been an important resource for people living along the North Pacific coast for thousands of years. At least two aspects of the sea otters' natural history have linked them with humans: their pelt and their food habits. Sea otter pelts, arguably the finest in the animal kingdom, were fashioned into garments, particularly in northern latitudes, while the presence of sea otters influenced the availability of some marine invertebrates, like snails, clams and abalone, that provided food for coastal people. In addition, sea otters spurred a growing fur trade after Vitus Bering's explorations of the North Pacific in the early 1700s revealed their widespread abundance. This commercial harvest was instrumental in European exploration and settlement of the Pacific Rim and led to the near-extermination of the sea otter, Enhydra lutris, in following centuries. Largely because of their life history and their direct relations with coastal residents, sea otters are a comparatively well-understood marine mammal. During the past few decades, concern for sea otters has broadened to encompass an interest in global resource conservation and restoration, as well as community ecology. This more recent focus on sea otters now extends to humans far removed from marine environments. Early sea otters evolved about 12 million years ago from Eurasian and African ancestors. They reached the North Pacific by way of two proposed migration paths, one along the Bering Land Bridge between northeastern Asia and northwestern North America and a second from the Atlantic Ocean that entered the Pacific through a channel in the central Americas. Modern sea otters occur only in the North Pacific and have occupied their current range for the past 1 million to 3 million years.

Alaska Geographic↗
USGS2021

Emerging perspectives on resource tracking and animal movement ecology

Resource tracking, where animals increase energy gain by moving to track phenological variation in resources across space, is emerging as a fundamental attribute of animal movement ecology. However, a theoretical framework to understand when and where resource tracking should occur, and how resource tracking should lead to emergent ecological patterns, is lacking. We present a framework that unites concepts from optimal foraging theory and landscape ecology, which can be used to generate and test predictions on how resource dynamics shape animal movement across taxa, systems, and scales. Consideration of the interplay between animal movement and resource dynamics not only advances ecological understanding but can also guide biodiversity conservation in an era of global change.

Trends in Ecology & Evolution↗
USGS2021

Towards an urgent yet deliberate conservation strategy: Sustaining social-ecological systems in rangelands of the Northern Great Plains, Montana

Urgency and deliberateness are often at odds when executing conservation projects, especially as the scale and complexity of objectives increases. The pace of environmental degradation supports immediate and measurable action. However, best practices for adaptive governance and building resilient social-ecological systems call for more deliberate efforts and participatory processes, which can be slow. We explore conflicts between urgency and deliberateness and the potential for their reconciliation through a case study of the challenges of conserving native rangelands in North America’s Northern Great Plains, an ecoregion targeted for global conservation initiatives. This region is undergoing a significant social-ecological transition, which underscores a need to rethink conservation strategies in light of the social-ecological system dynamics and potential future trajectories. Based on a structured narrative literature review process and iterative engagement with key regional stakeholders, we identify three interrelated factors critical to the system’s future outcomes that illustrate system complexity as well as trade-offs between urgent and deliberate action and unilateral and multilateral approaches to conservation: (1) influences of land management on biodiversity, (2) economic restructuring and shifting land use priorities, and (3) changing climate and disturbance regimes. We identify key gaps in the literature for each factor and across the factors—an effort that informs our call for research and practice agendas that address uncertainty and complexity at regional scales through more inclusive and future-oriented approaches.

Montana↗
USGS2017

A mosaic-based approach is needed to conserve biodiversity in disturbed freshwater ecosystems

Conserving native biodiversity in the face of human‐ and climate‐related impacts is a challenging and globally important ecological problem that requires an understanding of spatially connected, organismal‐habitat relationships. Globally, a suite of disturbances (e.g., agriculture, urbanization, climate change) degrades habitats and threatens biodiversity. A mosaic approach (in which connected, interacting collections of juxtaposed habitat patches are examined) provides a scientific foundation for addressing many disturbance‐related, ecologically based conservation problems. For example, if specific habitat types disproportionately increase biodiversity, these keystones should be incorporated into research and management plans. Our sampling of fish biodiversity and aquatic habitat along ten 3‐km sites within the Upper Neosho River subdrainage, KS, from June‐August 2013 yielded three generalizable ecological insights. First, specific types of mesohabitat patches (i.e., pool, riffle, run, and glide) were physically distinct and created unique mosaics of mesohabitats that varied across sites. Second, species richness was higher in riffle mesohabitats when mesohabitat size reflected field availability. Furthermore, habitat mosaics that included more riffles had greater habitat diversity and more fish species. Thus, riffles (<5% of sampled area) acted as keystone habitats. Third, additional conceptual development, which we initiate here, can broaden the identification of keystone habitats across ecosystems and further operationalize this concept for research and conservation. Thus, adopting a mosaic approach can increase scientific understanding of organismal‐habitat relationships, maintain natural biodiversity, advance spatial ecology, and facilitate effective conservation of native biodiversity in human‐altered ecosystems.

Kansas↗
USGS2021

Identifying mismatches between conservation area networks and vulnerable populations using spatial randomization

Grassland birds are among the most globally threatened bird groups due to substantial degradation of native grassland habitats. However, the current network of grassland conservation areas may not be adequate for halting population declines and biodiversity loss. Here, we evaluate a network of grassland conservation areas within Wisconsin, U.S.A., that includes both large Focal Landscapes and smaller targeted conservation areas (e.g., Grassland Bird Conservation Areas, GBCAs) established within them. To date, this conservation network has lacked baseline information to assess whether the current placement of these conservation areas aligns with population hot spots of grassland-dependent taxa. To do so, we fitted data from thousands of avian point-count surveys collected by citizen scientists as part of Wisconsin's Breeding Bird Atlas II with multinomial N -mixture models to estimate habitat–abundance relationships, develop spatially explicit predictions of abundance, and establish ecological baselines within priority conservation areas for a suite of obligate grassland songbirds. Next, we developed spatial randomization tests to evaluate the placement of this conservation network relative to randomly placed conservation networks. Overall, less than 20% of species statewide populations were found within the current grassland conservation network. Spatial tests demonstrated a high representation of this bird assemblage within the entire conservation network, but with a bias toward birds associated with moderately tallgrasses relative to those associated with shortgrasses or tallgrasses. We also found that GBCAs had higher representation at Focal Landscape rather than statewide scales. Here, we demonstrated how combining citizen science data with hierarchical modeling is a powerful tool for estimating ecological baselines and conducting large-scale evaluations of an existing conservation network for multiple grassland birds. Our flexible spatial randomization approach offers the potential to be applied to other protected area networks and serves as a complementary tool for conservation planning efforts globally.

Wisconsin↗