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USGS1985

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN THE OFFSHORE ENVIRONMENT.

This report discusses earthquake effects and potential hazards in the marine environment, describes and illustrates methods for the evaluation of earthquake hazards, and briefly reviews strategies for mitigating hazards. The report is broadly directed toward engineers, scientists, and others engaged in developing offshore resources. The continental shelves have become a major frontier in the search for new petroleum resources. Much of the current exploration is in areas of moderate to high earthquake activity. If the resources in these areas are to be developed economically and safely, potential earthquake hazards must be identified and mitigated both in planning and regulating activities and in designing, constructing, and operating facilities. Geologic earthquake effects that can be hazardous to marine facilities and operations include surface faulting, tectonic uplift and subsidence, seismic shaking, sea-floor failures, turbidity currents, and tsunamis.

Ocean science and engineering↗

USGS2025

Ecosystems

The Fifth National Climate Assessment updates the evidence regarding how climate change influences ecosystems, biological diversity, and the implications for changes to critical ecosystem services—as noted in the key messages above (McElwee et al., 2023). Large-scale transformational changes to ecosystems are occurring, including—but not limited to—land-use conversion, hydrological alteration, and fire regimes. Implications of such transformational change include ecosystem capacity to maintain biological diversity and ecosystem services, impacting recreational opportunities (e.g., hunting and fishing, birding, ecotourism) and agriculture production (McElwee et al., 2023). A central tenet of the Fifth National Climate Assessment regarding ecosystems was the shifts to alternative states and how the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework may guide the adaptive management of ecosystems moving forward (Lynch et al., 2022). Nebraska is in the northern Great Plains, where extremes in climate and resulting ecosystem processes are experienced (Knapp et al., 2023). Pressures on ecosystems to provide essential services, including healthy soil and water to benefit humans and animals, will inevitably impact economic development, urban and rural communities, and fish and wildlife populations as climate change continues (Knapp et al., 2023). All ecosystems will be impacted in Nebraska, but aquatic systems—wetlands, aquifers, lakes, streams, and rivers—may be most impacted, given the scarcity of water as human demand (i.e., agriculture and a growing population) persists and increases (Bathke et al., 2014). Major knowledge gaps remain regarding how fish and wildlife populations will persist in changing environments. Past changes, including large-scale land conversion, water delivery systems, and water storage (construction of reservoirs), suggest that some species can adapt to novel environments and shift distributions. However, many more species may be maladapted to the expected changes in climate. Species may be unable to move to suitable habitats, and biological constraints under rapidly changing conditions may impede adaptation— resulting in extirpation and potential extinction. Further, changing conditions open multiple pathways for invasive species and novel diseases, impacting native fish populations, wildlife populations, and human health.

Nebraska↗

USGS2019

Evaluating environmental change and behavioral decision-making for sustainability policy using an agent-based model: A case study for the Smoky Hill River Watershed, Kansas

Sustainability has been at the forefront of the environmental research agenda of the integrated anthroposphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere since the last century and will continue to be critically important for future environmental science. However, linking humans and the environment through effective policy remains a major challenge for sustainability research and practice. Here we address this gap using an agent-based model (ABM) for a coupled natural and human systems in the Smoky Hill River Watershed (SHRW), Kansas, USA. For this freshwater-dependent agricultural watershed with a highly variable flow regime influenced by human-induced land-use and climate change, we tested the support for an environmental policy designed to conserve and protect fish biodiversity in the SHRW. We develop a proof of concept interdisciplinary ABM that integrates field data on hydrology, ecology (fish richness), social-psychology (value-belief-norm) and economics, to simulate human agents' decisions to support environmental policy. The mechanism to link human behaviors to environmental changes is the social-psychological sequence identified by the value-belief-norm framework and is informed by hydrological and fish ecology models. Our results indicate that (1) cultural factors influence the decision to support the policy; (2) a mechanism modifying social-psychological factors can influence the decision-making process; (3) there is resistance to environmental policy in the SHRW, even under potentially extreme climate conditions; and (4) the best opportunities for policy acceptance were found immediately after extreme environmental events. The modeling approach presented herein explicitly links biophysical and social science has broad generality for sustainability problems.

Kansas↗

USGS1987

Economics of the coal industry east of the Mississippi, 1973-1982

Government regulations on health, safety and environment have been poppular blamed for the declining productivity in U.S. coal mines since 1970. The stagnation in the coal industry east of the Mississippi is alleged to have been caused by this declining productivity and by the growth of cheaper and cleaner coal production west of the Mississippi. Economic evidence suggests, however, that productivity declines were more due to a relative lowering of labor costs in comparison with coal prices and due to work stoppages. The development of western coals fields was spurred by growth in local demand and had only a relatively small impact on coal production east of the Mississippi. Problems of the eastern coal industry are rooted mainly in slow economic growth in eastern U.S. which must be addressed in the long-term interests of the eastern coal industry.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2017

Translating statistical species-habitat models to interactive decision support tools

Understanding species-habitat relationships is vital to successful conservation, but the tools used to communicate species-habitat relationships are often poorly suited to the information needs of conservation practitioners. Here we present a novel method for translating a statistical species-habitat model, a regression analysis relating ring-necked pheasant abundance to landcover, into an interactive online tool. The Pheasant Habitat Simulator combines the analytical power of the R programming environment with the user-friendly Shiny web interface to create an online platform in which wildlife professionals can explore the effects of variation in local landcover on relative pheasant habitat suitability within spatial scales relevant to individual wildlife managers. Our tool allows users to virtually manipulate the landcover composition of a simulated space to explore how changes in landcover may affect pheasant relative habitat suitability, and guides users through the economic tradeoffs of landscape changes. We offer suggestions for development of similar interactive applications and demonstrate their potential as innovative science delivery tools for diverse professional and public audiences.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2004

Sequestration of carbon in soil organic matter in Senegal: an overview

Sequestration of Carbon in Soil Organic Matter ( SOCSOM ) in Senegal is a multi-disciplinary development project planned and refined through two international workshops. The project was implemented by integrating a core of international experts in remote sensing, biogeochemical modeling, community socio-economic assessments, and carbon measurements in a fully collaborative manner with Senegal organizations, national scientists, and local knowledge and expertise. The study addresses the potential role developing countries in semi-arid areas can play in climate mitigation activities. Multiple benefits to smallholders could accrue as a result of management practices to re-establish soil carbon content lost because of land use changes or management practices that are not sustainable. The specific importance for the Sahel is because of the high vulnerability to climate change in already impoverished rural societies. The project focuses on four objectives in specific locations across the agroecological zones of Senegal. These objectives are: use of soil sampling and biogeochemical modeling to quantify the biophysical potential for carbon sequestration and to determine the sensitivity of the carbon stocks to various management and climate scenarios, to evaluate the socio-economic and cultural requirements necessary for successful project implementation directed toward an aggregation of smallholders to sequester around 100,000 t carbon (C), to support capacity building to develop a Carbon Specialist Team, and to initiate extrapolation from site-specific project areas to the Sahel region and the national level.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

USGS2013

Tracking animals in freshwater with electronic tags: past, present and future

Considerable technical developments over the past half century have enabled widespread application of electronic tags to the study of animals in the wild, including in freshwater environments. We review the constraints associated with freshwater telemetry and biologging and the technical developments relevant to their use. Technical constraints for tracking animals are often influenced by the characteristics of the animals being studied and the environment they inhabit. Collectively, they influence which and how technologies can be used and their relative effectiveness. Although radio telemetry has historically been the most commonly used technology in freshwater, passive integrated transponder (PIT) technology, acoustic telemetry and biologgers are becoming more popular. Most telemetry studies have focused on fish, although an increasing number have focused on other taxa, such as turtles, crustaceans and molluscs. Key technical developments for freshwater systems include: miniaturization of tags for tracking small-size life stages and species, fixed stations and coded tags for tracking large samples of animals over long distances and large temporal scales, inexpensive PIT systems that enable mass tagging to yield population- and community-level relevant sample sizes, incorporation of sensors into electronic tags, validation of tag attachment procedures with a focus on maintaining animal welfare, incorporation of different techniques (for example, genetics, stable isotopes) and peripheral technologies (for example, geographic information systems, hydroacoustics), development of novel analytical techniques, and extensive international collaboration. Innovations are still needed in tag miniaturization, data analysis and visualization, and in tracking animals over larger spatial scales (for example, pelagic areas of lakes) and in challenging environments (for example, large dynamic floodplain systems, under ice). There seems to be a particular need for adapting various global positioning system and satellite tagging approaches to freshwater. Electronic tagging provides a mechanism to collect detailed information from imperilled animals and species that have no direct economic value. Current and future advances will continue to improve our knowledge of the natural history of aquatic animals and ecological processes in freshwater ecosystems while facilitating evidence-based resource management and conservation.

Animal Biotelemetry↗

USGS2016

Exploring climate niches of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) haplotypes in the western United States: Implications for evolutionary history and conservation

Ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific ( P . p . var. ponderosa ) and Rocky Mountain ( P . p . var. scopulorum ) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P . p . vars. ponderosa and scopulorum , respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2019

Modelling development of riparian ranchlands using ecosystem services at the Aravaipa Watershed, SE Arizona

This paper describes how subdivision and development of rangelands within a remote and celebrated semiarid watershed near the US-Mexico border might affect multiple ecohydrological services provided, such as recharge of the aquifer, water and sediment yield, water quality, flow rates and downstream cultural and natural resources. Specifically, we apply an uncalibrated watershed model and land-change forecasting scenario to consider the potential effects of converting rangelands to housing developments and document potential changes in hydrological ecosystem services. A new method to incorporate weather data in watershed modelling is introduced. Results of introducing residential development in this fragile arid environment portray changes in the water budget, including increases in surface-water runoff, water yield, and total sediment loading. Our findings also predict slight reductions in lateral soil water, a component of the water budget that is increasingly becoming recognized as critical to maintaining water availability in arid regions. We discuss how the proposed development on shrub/scrub rangelands could threaten to sever imperative ecohydrological interactions and impact multiple ecosystem services. This research highlights rangeland management issues important for the protection of open-space, economic valuation of rangeland ecosystem services, conservation easements, and incentives to develop markets for these.

Arizona↗

USGS2001

Scientific and social landscapes: New frameworks and forums for water management and sustainability

The Two Decades of Water Law and Policy Reform conference examines the agenda for reforming and improving water law that has developed during the past two decades in the West, assesses what has (and has not) been accomplished by pursuing these reforms, and explores lessons and implications for future water law and policy. The papers and discussion provide analysis and lessons that can guide the new administration, Congress, federal agencies, state governments, and communities as they seek to find policy solutions to the challenges posed by the tremendous economic and demographic changes occurring in the West, in order to ensure the sustainability of the region’s unique environment. Specific sessions focus on reforms such as improving the scientific and technical basis for water management, water conservation and efficiency, protecting environmental values in meeting water demands, and creating new models of governance for water issues.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2004

Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge: A survey of visitor experiences: Report to respondents

In the fall of 2000, researchers from the Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Program (PASA) of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) met with the staff of the Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge (CPNWR) to discuss the issues related to social, economic, and human dimensions of natural resource management as it related to the Comprehensive Conservation Plan (CCP) planning process. As a result of the meeting a research study was designed to better understand how visitors are affected by environmental management decisions and provide information to assist the refuge managers in making decisions regarding public use and recreational management related to the goals of the proposed CCP. More specifically, information was collected to document the type and frequency of visitor use; assess the importance of recreational activities; and to determine visitor attitudes about recreation management decisions within the refuge. To this end, we designed a study to assess the effects of the no-action and alternative management plans for the Refuge visitors’ perceptions and likely visitation patterns. In fall of 2002 a questionnaire was developed in collaboration with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the CCP planning team and mailed to 1090 people who visited the refuge between June 2001 and June 2002. We used standard research methods in designing and administering the questionnaire. Six hundred and eightyfive (685) completed questionnaires (74%) were considered usable. We developed the questionnaire (OMB Control Number 1040-00) to answer the following questions: What are the important differences in visitors’ attitudes and perception regarding recreation and visitor use at CPNWR? What are the factors that explain the differences in visitor attitudes and perception regarding recreation and visitor use at CPNWR? What are the regional economic impacts of visitor spending? In general the respondents indicated support for current management practices of CPNWR. We found that people came to the Refuge to experience a connection with the resource and the environment. More than half of the respondents said that viewing the desert scenery, seeking wilderness solitude and viewing wildlife were the most important reasons for making the visit to the refuge.

Cabeza Prieta National Wildlife Refuge↗

USGS2010

Depositional setting, petrology and chemistry of Permian coals from the Paraná Basin: 2. South Santa Catarina Coalfield, Brazil

In Brazil economically important coal deposits occur in the southern part of the Paraná Basin, where coal seams occur in the Permian Rio Bonito Formation, with major coal development in the states of Rio Grande de Sul and Santa Catarina. The current paper presents results on sequence stratigraphic interpretation of the coal-bearing strata , and petrological and geochemical coal seam characterization from the South Santa Catarina Coalfield, Paraná Basin. In terms of sequence stratigraphic interpretation the precursor mires of the Santa Catarina coal seams formed in an estuarine-barrier shoreface depositional environment , with major peat accumulation in a high stand systems tract (Pre-Bonito and Bonito seams), a lowstand systems tract (Ponta Alta seam, seam A, seam B) and a transgressive systems tract (Irapuá, Barro Branco and Treviso seams). Seam thicknesses range from 1.70 to 2.39 m, but high proportions of impure coal (coaly shale and shaley coal), carbonaceous shale and partings reduce the net coal thickness significantly. Coal lithoypes are variable, with banded coal predominant in the Barro Branco seam, and banded dull and dull coal predominantly in Bonito and Irapuá seams, respectively. Results from petrographic analyses indicate a vitrinite reflectance range from 0.76 to 1.63 %Rrandom (HVB A to LVB coal). Maceral group distribution varies significantly, with the Barro Branco seam having the highest vitrinite content (mean 67.5 vol%), whereas the Irapuá seam has the highest inertinite content (33.8 vol%). Liptinite mean values range from 7.8 vol% (Barro Branco seam) to 22.5 vol% (Irapuá seam). Results from proximate analyses indicate for the three seams high ash yields (50.2 – 64.2 wt.%). Considering the International Classification of in-Seam Coals, all samples are in fact classified as carbonaceous rocks (> 50 wt.% ash). Sulfur contents range from 3.4 to 7.7 wt.%, of which the major part occurs as pyritic sulfur. Results of X-ray diffraction indicate the predominance of quartz and kaolinite (also pyrite). Gypsum , gibbsite , jarosite and calcite were also identified in some samples. Feldspar was noted but is rare. The major element distribution in the three seams (coal basis) is dominated by SiO 2 (31.3 wt.%, mean value), Al 2 O 3 (14.5 wt.%, mean value) and Fe 2 O 3 (6.9 wt.%, mean value). Considering the concentrations of trace elements that are of potential environmental hazards the Barro Branco, Bonito and Irapuá seams (coal base) are significantly enriched in Co (15.7 ppm), Cr (54.5 ppm), Li (59.3 ppm), Mn (150.4 ppm), Pb (58.0 ppm) and V (99.6 ppm), when compared to average trace elements contents reported for U. S. coals. Hierarchical cluster analysis identified, based on similarity levels, three groups of major elements and seven groups of trace elements. Applying discriminant analyses using trace and major element distribution, it could be demonstrated that the three seams from Santa Catarina show distinct populations in the discriminant analyses plots, and also differ from the coals of Rio Grande do Sul analyzed in a previous study.

Santa Catarina↗

USGS1977

Oil-shale resource investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey

The decade of the 1970's so far has been marked by a sharply increased dependence by the United States on foreign sources of energy. Although this dependence had been growing for the previous 20 years, it was made clearly visible to the American public by the Arab oil embargo of 1973. Since then, energy has remained a topic of public discussion and concern. The current imbalance between U.S. energy supply and demand and the generally recognized need to increase the domestic production of energy make it appropriate to review our present knowledge of U.S. mineral fuel resources--coal, oil, natural gas, oil shale, and uranium--which in 1975 provided 95 percent of the energy produced in the United States. These conditions also warrant a description of the research that is being done to improve our understanding of these resources, and to determine the effects on the environment of their development. This is one of four reports on the energy resource investigations being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess the Nation's coal, oil and gas, oil shale, and uranium and thorium resources. Two other reports provide information about the Geological Survey's programs for assessing the petroleum resources of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf and for identifying the environmental factors that could affect their development. The description of the Geological Survey's oil-shale investigations is presented in this report in the context of the underlying socio-economic problem of expanding the domestic production of oil and gas while maintaining acceptable environmental standards. This orientation toward a national mission characterizes each segment of the Geological Survey's energy resources and marine geology programs. Readers who want information about the individual projects that comprise the Oil-Shale Program will find it in the appendices, which also include a bibliography. It is hoped that this report will give scientists, science administrators, and policy makers, both in government and in the private sector, as well as the general public, a better understanding of the relation of oil shale resources to the Nation's requirements for energy and of the importance of a carefully planned research program of resource assessment and environmental research on this future energy commodity.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1959

Some aspects of the origin of the Ironwood iron-formation of Michigan and Wisconsin

The Ironwood iron-formation of the Gogebic Range of Michigan and Wisconsin is made up of several rock types, each of which is characterized by a different iron-rich mineral: hematite, magnetite, pyrite, iron carbonate, or iron silicate (minnesotaite, stilpnomelane). Where the Ironwood iron-formation is relatively unaltered the Plymouth, Norrie, and Anvil members consist of wavy-bedded magnetite and silicate-rich rocks, whereas the Yale and Pence members consist of even-bedded carbonate, silicate, magnetite, and pyrite-rich rocks. These rock types represent primary facies of the iron-formation that were deposited under differing physical and chemical conditions during a period of continuous iron-rich sedimentation. Animikie sedimentation in the Gogebic district began with the deposition of sandstone and dolomitic limestone in a shallow sea advancing over a low-lying land mass of lower Precambrian granite and green-stone. Continued advance of the sea, with effective separation of clastic material near shore, permitted the dominantly chemical sedimentation of the iron- formation in somewhat deeper water. The development of an off-shore basin with partially restricted circulation would have facilitated such deposition. Minor fluctuations in the physical and chemical conditions within the depositional environment are reflected in the differing facies of the iron-formation. Deposition of the iron and silica-rich chemical sediments was terminated by increased tectonism and the deposition of the thick sequence of slates and graywackes of the Tyler formation.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2005

Challenges facing the North American iron ore industry

During the 20th century, the iron ore mining industries of Canada and the United States passed through several periods of transformation. The beginning of the 21st century has seen yet another period of transformation, with the economic failure of a number of steel companies, the acquisition of their facilities by more viable steelmakers, and the consolidation of control within the North American iron ore industry. Changes in Canadian and United States iron ore production and the market control structure involved are analysed. The consolidation of ownership, formation of foreign joint ventures within Nordi America, planned divestitures of upstream activities by steelmakers, and industry changes made to ensure availability of feedstocks will be reviewed. The ttaditional isolation of the Canadian and United States iron ore operations and their strong linkage to downstream steel production will be discussed in the context of a changing global economy. Management-labour conflicts that have taken place and agreements made during 2000 through 2004 will be discussed in the context of the economic environment leading up to these agreements. Cooperative agreements between competing Canadian and United States companies to resolve client needs in processing and blending will be examined. A joint industry-government project designed to use new technology to produce direct reduced iron nuggets of 96 - 98 per cent iron content using non-coking coals will also be assessed. Changes in iron ore transportation methods, ownership and infrastructure will be reviewed for both rail and inland waterway transport between Canadian and United States companies. A brief analysis of social and environmental issues relating to sustainable development of the Canadian-United States iron ore industry will be included.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1982

Susitna Hydroelectric Project: terrestrial environmental workshop and preliminary simulation model

The technical feasibility, economic viability, and environmental impacts of a hydroelectric development project in the Susitna River Basin are being studied by Acres American, Inc. on behalf of the Alaska Power Authority. As part of these studies, Acres American recently contracted LGL Alaska Research Associates, Inc. to coordinate the terrestrial environmental studies being performed by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and, as subcontractors to LGL, several University of Alaska research groups. LGL is responsible for further quantifying the potential impacts of the project on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for developing a plan to mitigate adverse impacts on the terrestrial environment. The impact assessment and mitigation plan will be included as part of a license application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) scheduled for the first quarter of 1983. The quantification of impacts, mitigation planning, and design of future research is being organized using a computer simulation modelling approach. Through a series of workshops attended by researchers, resource managers, and policy-makers, a computer model is being developed and refined for use in the quantification of impacts on terrestrial wildlife and vegetation, and for evaluating different mitigation measures such as habitat enhancement and the designation of replacement lands to be managed by wildlife habitat. This report describes the preliminary model developed at the first workshop held August 23 -27, 1982 in Anchorage.

Report↗

USGS1961

The data of lead isotope geology related to problems of Ore Genesis

Searching questions about the origins of ore deposits have been asked for many years. Where do ore fluids originate-within the crust, or deeper? Can specific sources of ore metals be identified? When were ores deposited? How long did mineralization continue? What was the rate and paragenesis of deposition? Which deposits are cogenetic, and what metallogenetic provinces do they define? Isotope analyses of lead from rocks and ores provide a new tool for attacking such problems of ore genesis . About two thousand such analyses now available from more than 20 laboratories have been compiled and studied for this purpose. The data now available suggest partial answers to some questions and serve to define other, new problems , not previously recognized. Their greatest import, however, is to illustrate the potential future significance of lead - isotope studies. Ore - lead , as shown two decades ago, ranges widely in isotopic composition. Recent studies show that traces of lead in ordinary rocks of the earth's crust exhibit apparently similar variations. All these variations are attributable primarily to mixing of old lead with accumulations of new radiogenic lead from decay of radioactive uranium and thorium. Each sample of lead preserves in its isotopic composition a record of its own mixing history: a composite record of the time this lead was in different environments, its past associations with uranium and thorium, and the geochemical processes that moved it from place to place. Integrated study of all these variables will throw light on many difficult problems of ore genesis when adequate techniques are developed. Progress will be slow, however, until more accurate lead - isotope analyses can be made at lower cost and more objective criteria developed for interpreting measured isotopic compositions in terms of geologic history.

Economic Geology↗

USGS2020

Economic, land use, and ecosystem services impacts of Rwanda's Green Growth Strategy: An application of the IEEM+ESM platform

We develop and link the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform to ecosystem services modeling (ESM). The IEEM+ESM Platform is an innovative decision-making framework for exploring complex public policy goals and elucidating synergies and trade-offs between alternative policy portfolios. The IEEM+ESM approach is powerful in its ability to shed light on (i) change in land use and ecosystem services driven by public policy and the supply and demand responses of businesses and households; and (ii) impacts on standard economic indicators of concern to Ministries of Finance such as gross domestic product and employment, as well as changes in wealth and ecosystem services. The IEEM+ESM approach is being adopted rapidly and by the end of 2020, IEEM+ESM Platforms will be implemented for about 25 countries. To demonstrate the insights generated by the IEEM+ESM approach, we apply it to the analysis of alternative green growth strategies in Rwanda, a country that has made strong progress in reducing poverty and enhancing economic growth in the last 15 years. The case of Rwanda is particularly compelling as it faces intense pressure on its natural capital base and ecosystem services, already with the highest population density in Africa, which is projected to double by 2050. In applying IEEM+ESM and comparing the outcomes of Rwanda’s green growth policies, increasing fertilization of agricultural crops shows the largest economic gains but also trade-offs in environmental quality reflected through higher nutrient export and reduced water quality. Combining crop fertilization with forest plantations better balances critical ecosystem services and their role in underpinning economic development as Rwanda progresses toward its target of middle-income status by 2035. This application to Rwanda’s green growth strategy demonstrates the value-added of the IEEM+ESM approach in generating results that speak to both economic outcomes and impacts on market and non-market ecosystem services.

Science of the Total Environment↗