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Supporting natural resource-management decisions — The role of economics at the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) — 2018 DOI Economics Training Workshop

The second U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Economics Training Workshop (hereafter “Workshop”) was held during September 25–27, 2018, in Washington, D.C., to identify, highlight, and better understand needs and opportunities for economic analysis to support DOI’s mission. Building on the first workshop in 2017, the second Workshop, jointly convened by the DOI Office of Policy Analysis and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science and Decisions Center, provided an opportunity for DOI economists to share expertise and experiences and to build collaboration and communication channels across DOI. In addition, the second Workshop provided training sessions on a variety of relevant economic and modeling topics. More than 40 DOI economists gathered at the Workshop to share their work, discuss shared challenges, and identify approaches to advance the use and contribution of economics at the DOI.

Open-File Report↗

Geomorphology of the Elwha River and its Delta: Chapter 3 in Coastal habitats of the Elwha River, Washington--biological and physical patterns and processes prior to dam removal

The removal of two dams on the Elwha River will introduce massive volumes of sediment to the river, and this increase in sediment supply in the river will likely modify the shapes and forms of the river and coastal landscape downstream of the dams. This chapter provides the geologic and geomorphologic background of the Olympic Peninsula and the Elwha River with emphasis on the present river and shoreline. The Elwha River watershed was formed through the uplift of the Olympic Mountains, erosion and movement of sediment throughout the watershed from glaciers, and downslope movement of sediment from gravitational and hydrologic forces. Recent alterations to the river morphology and sediment movement through the river include the two large dams slated to be removed in 2011, but also include repeated bulldozing of channel boundaries, construction and maintenance of flood plain levees, a weir and diversion channel for water supply purposes, and engineered log jams to help enhance river habitat for salmon. The shoreline of the Elwha River delta has changed in location by several kilometers during the past 14,000 years, in response to variations in the local sea-level of approximately 150 meters. Erosion of the shoreline has accelerated during the past 80 years, resulting in landward movement of the beach by more than 200 meters near the river mouth, net reduction in the area of coastal wetlands, and the development of an armored low-tide terrace of the beach consisting primarily of cobble. Changes to the river and coastal morphology during and following dam removal may be substantial, and consistent, long-term monitoring of these systems will be needed to characterize the effects of the dam removal project.

Washington↗

Ground-water data: Beaver, Escalante, Cedar City, and Parowan Valleys; parts of Washington, Iron, Beaver, and Millard Counties, Utah

This report is intended to serve two purposes: (1) to make available to the public basic ground-water data useful in planning and studying development of water resources, and (2) to supplement an interpretive report that will be published later. Records were collected during the period 1935-62 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah State Engineer as part of the investigation of ground-water conditions in the Beaver, Escalante, Cedar City, and Parowan Walleys. This report will include records collected subsequent to data published in earlier reports listed in the bibliography. The interpretive material will be published in a companion report by George W. Sandberg. This report is most useful in predicting conditions likely to be found in areas that are being considered as well sites. The person considering the new well can spot the proposed site on plate 1 and examine the records of nearby wells as shown in the tables and figure 2. From table 1 he can note such things as diameter, depth, water level, yield, use of water, and depth to aquifers in wells in the vicinity, and from the well logs in table 3 he can note the type of material that yields water to the wells. Table 2 gives several years record of yields and pumping levels of irrigation wells, and in table 4 are the chemical analyses of water from wells and springs. Figure 2 shows the historic fluctuations and trends of water levels in the four valleys. If the reader decides from his examination that conditions are favorable, he can place an application to drill a well with the State Engineer. During the past several years, however, the State Engineer has rejected new applications to appropriate water in major portions of Beaver Valley, Milford and Beryl-Enterprise districts in Escalante Valley, and Cedar City Valley. Anyone seeking to initiate a new ground-water right in any of these areas should obtain information from the State Engineer's Office in either Salt Lake City or Cedar City to determine the likelihood of approval of the required application. The report is also useful when planning large-scale developments of water supply. This and other uses of the report will be helped by use of the interpretive report upon its release.

Utah↗

Geomorphic characterization of four shelf-sourced submarine canyons along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic continental margin

Shelf-sourced submarine canyons are common features of continental margins and are fundamental to deep-sea sedimentary systems. Despite their geomorphic and geologic significance, relatively few passive margin shelf-breaching canyons worldwide have been mapped using modern geophysical methods. Between 2007 and 2012 a series of geophysical surveys was conducted across four major canyons of the US Mid-Atlantic margin: Wilmington, Baltimore, Washington, and Norfolk canyons. More than 5700 km 2 of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and 890 line-km of sub-bottom CHIRP profiles were collected along the outer shelf and uppermost slope (depths of 80-1200 m). The data allowed us to compare and contrast the fine-scale morphology of each canyon system. The canyons have marked differences in the morphology and orientation of canyon heads, steepness and density of sidewall gullies, and the character of the continental shelf surrounding canyon rims. Down-canyon axial profiles for Washington, Baltimore and Wilmington canyons have linear shapes, and each canyon thalweg exhibits morphological evidence for recent, relatively small-scale sediment transport. For example, Washington Canyon displays extremely steep wall gradients and contains ~100 m wide, 5–10 m deep, v-shaped incisions down the canyon axis, suggesting modern or recent sediment transport. In contrast, the convex axial thalweg profile, the absence of thalweg incision, and evidence for sediment infilling at the canyon head, suggest that depositional processes strongly influence Norfolk Canyon during the current sea-level high-stand. The north walls of Wilmington, Washington and Norfolk canyons are steeper than the south walls due to differential erosion, though the underlying cause for this asymmetry is not clear. Furthermore, we speculate that most of the geomorphic features observed within the canyons (e.g., terraces, tributary canyons, gullies, and hanging valleys) were formed during the Pleistocene, and show only subtle modification by Holocene processes active during the present sea-level high-stand.

Cape Hatteras;Georges Bank;Hudson Canyon↗

Pomona Member of the Columbia River Basalt Group: an intracanyon flow in the Columbia River Gorge, Oregon.

The Pomona Member of the Saddle Mountains Basalt (Columbia River Basalt Group) occurs as an intracanyon flow greater than 75m (250ft) thick along the S side of the Columbia River Gorge between Mitchell Point and Shellrock Mountain, Oregon. Best exposures are at Mitchell Point, where this flow caps more than 70m (230ft) of cobble conglomerate that partially fills a canyon cut into flows of the underlying Frenchman Springs Member. These exposures provide a necessary link between outcrops of the Pomona Member in the Columbia Plateau and western Washington. Post-Frenchman Springs, pre-Pomona canyon cutting implies deformation in the ancestral Cascade Range between about 14.5 and 12Ma ago.-Author

Oregon Geology↗

After the disaster: The hydrogeomorphic, ecological, and biological responses to the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens caused instantaneous landscape disturbance on a grand scale. On 18 May 1980, an ensemble of volcanic processes, including a debris avalanche, a directed pyroclastic density current, voluminous lahars, and widespread tephra fall, abruptly altered landscape hydrology and geomorphology, and created distinctive disturbance zones having varying impacts on regional biota. Response to the geological and ecological disturbances has been varied and complex. In general, eruption-induced alterations in landscape hydrology and geomorphology led to enhanced stormflow discharge and sediment transport. Although the hydrological response to landscape perturbation has diminished, enhanced sediment transport persists in some basins. In the nearly 30 years since the eruption, 350 million (metric) tons of suspended sediment has been delivered from the Toutle River watershed to the Cowlitz River (roughly 40 times the average annual preeruption suspended-sediment discharge of the Columbia River). Such prodigious sediment loading has wreaked considerable socioeconomic havoc, causing significant channel aggradation and loss of flood conveyance capacity. Significant and ongoing engineering efforts have been required to mitigate these problems. The overall biological evolution of the eruption-impacted landscape can be viewed in terms of a framework of survivor legacies. Despite appearances to the contrary, a surprising number of species survived the eruption, even in the most heavily devastated areas. With time, survivor “hotspots” have coalesced into larger patches, and have served as stepping stones for immigrant colonization. The importance of biological legacies will diminish with time, but the intertwined trajectories of geophysical and biological successions will influence the geological and biological responses to the 1980 eruption for decades to come.

Washington↗

Abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) off central California during the 2018 breeding season

Executive Summary Marbled murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) have been listed as “endangered” by the State of California and “threatened” by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 1992 in California, Oregon, and Washington. Information regarding marbled murrelet abundance, distribution, population trends, and habitat associations is critical for risk assessment, effective management, evaluation of conservation efficacy, and ultimately, to meet Federal- and State-mandated recovery efforts for this species. During June–August 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center continued previously established, long-term (1999–2018), at-sea surveys to estimate abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conservation Zone 6 (San Francisco Bay to Point Sur in central California). Using conventional distance sampling methods, we estimated marbled murrelet abundance using 137 detections of 227 individuals observed on 9 surveys. The abundance estimated for the entire study area using all surveys in 2018 was 370 birds (95-percent confidence interval, 250–546 birds). Estimated abundance from 2018 is comparable to most prior years of study, except for 2001–03, when greater abundances were estimated. In 2018, we estimated reproductive productivity (calculated as the hatch-year [HY] to after-hatch-year [AHY] ratio) using four detections of four HY individuals observed on six surveys. After date-correcting HY and AHY counts to account for birds expected to be absent from the water while inland at nests, the date-corrected juvenile ratio was 0.047 ± 0.024 standard error. We updated a synthesized database of all Zone 6 marbled murrelet survey data since 1999 with 2018 data to allow scientists and managers to evaluate established survey methods and assess trends in abundance and productivity estimates.

California↗

Tsunami hazards— A national threat

In December 2004, when a tsunami killed more than 200,000 people in 11 countries around the Indian Ocean, the United States was reminded of its own tsunami risks. In fact, devastating tsunamis have struck North America before and are sure to strike again. Especially vulnerable are the five Pacific States--Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California--and the U.S. Caribbean islands. In the wake of the Indian Ocean disaster, the United States is redoubling its efforts to assess the Nation's tsunami hazards, provide tsunami education, and improve its system for tsunami warning. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is helping to meet these needs, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and with coastal States and counties.

Fact Sheet↗

Lithologic coring in the lower Anacostia tidal watershed, Washington, D.C., July 2002

Little is known about the volumetric flux of ground water to the lower tidal Anacostia River, or whether ground-water flow is an important component of the contaminant load in this part of the Anacostia River. The watershed is in the eastern part of Washington, D.C., and has been subjected to over 200 years of urbanization and modifications of the river channel and nearby land areas. These anthropogenic factors, along with tidal fluctuations in the river, make ground-water data collection and interpretations difficult. The U.S. Geological Survey is cooperating with the District of Columbia Department of Health, Environmental Health Administration, Bureau of Environmental Quality, Water Quality Division, in a study to assess nonpoint-source pollution from ground water into the lower tidal Anacostia River. Lithologic cores from drilling activities conducted during July 2002 in the study area have been interpreted in the context of geologic and hydrogeologic information from previous studies in the lower Anacostia tidal watershed. These interpretations can help achieve the overall project goals of characterizing ground-water flow and contaminant load in the study area. Hydrostratigraphic units encountered during drilling generally consisted of late Pleistocene to Holocene fluvial deposits overlying Cretaceous fluvial/deltaic deposits. Cores collected in Beaverdam Creek and the Anacostia River indicated high- and low-energy environments of deposition, respectively. Two cores collected near the river showed different types of anthropogenic fill underlain by low-energy deposits, which were in turn underlain by sand and gravel. A third core collected near the river consisted primarily of sand and gravel with no artificial fill.

Washington DC↗

Demonstrating the value of Earth observations—methods, practical applications, and solutions—group on Earth observations side event proceedings

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Association for Remote Sensing Companies, and the European Space Agency in coordination with the GEOValue Community hosted a side event to the Group on Earth Observations Plenary on October 23–24, 2017, in Washington, D.C. The workshop, entitled “Demonstrating the Value of Earth Observations: Methods, Practical Applications and Solutions,” brought together more than 60 international experts including economists, scientists, and engineers to consider the state of the science and applications of valuing Earth observations (EO). This 2-day workshop built upon previous activities developed under the GEOValue initiative. This workshop brought together expert analysts from multiple disciplines and backgrounds who are developing methods to identify and measure the value of information generated from the use of satellite and in-situ data. The mix of government agencies, international financial institutions, and independent consultants who participated in the workshop blended to develop a rich mix of views, approaches, and outcomes. During the first part of the workshop, the focus was on the latest science in valuing EO. A number of methodologies were described. Approaches generally assess the societal benefits of specific actions (for example, investments in EO). Some methods focus on broad measures of economic activity (for example, gross domestic product) or methods to assess total economic value such as contingent valuation surveys. Alternatively, use-case approaches (a use case is defined as an evaluation in which one or more decisions, applications, or other uses of data, information, and information products are specifically considered) start with the specific actions and how information is used to support decision making and affect outcomes. The second part of the meeting was focused on the use and development of value chains and decision trees. A value chain can be defined as the set of value-adding activities that one or more organizations perform in creating and distributing goods and services. In terms of EO, the value chain approach can be applied to consider societal benefits of the data and assess the value of data and data features. The EO value chain considers the geospatial data sources and the processing of the data into value added information to be incorporated into decision-support systems, leading to decision makers’ actions. To understand the value of EO, one would also need to recognize the demand side of the equation or how EO benefits users. Extending the value chain concept and incorporating tenets of Bayesian decision making, a decision tree would include one or more use cases. The value provided by the marginal increase in information could flow from one or several parts of the supply side of the value chain. The decision tree is based on the premise that information has no value if it is not used in at least one decision. By connecting the value chain and the decision tree, a framework is created that allows for conceptualizing the value of EO in its many uses. One can then apply economic techniques to monetize the marginal benefit of an outcome with information versus one without. A third part of the meeting applied the value chain and decision-tree frameworks to five specific thematic areas, each with the focus of using information for a decision point: Effect of increasing temperatures on human health; Flooding—Mitigating, managing, and avoiding impacts to safety and property damage; Harmful algal blooms—Effects on human health, recreation, and tourism; Energy and mineral supply—Mitigating, managing, and avoiding impacts of shortfalls on the economy; and Effects of natural hazards on transportation systems—Effects on mobility, safety, and the economy. During the working session, five separate groups worked to define and delineate the value chains and decision trees associated with each topic, discussing the related challenges and data needs. The outcomes were reported back to the full group. Because of the complexity of the topics, most groups first identified a network of value chains and then narrowed the scope to develop a single value chain to address their group’s topic. Although they worked separately and on different topics, the groups came to similar conclusions, concurring that the value chain and decision-tree frameworks are very effective for informing quantitative impact assessments and developing a relatable narrative to assist the public in understanding the link between EO and citizens.

Open-File Report↗

Streambed scour of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) redds in the South Fork Tolt River, King County, Washington

Prior to emergence as fry, salmonid embryos incubating within gravel nests called “redds” are vulnerable to substrate mobilization and lowering of the streambed, a process termed “streambed scour,” during floods. Water managers regulating discharge in salmonid-bearing rivers need information about the magnitude of discharge during which the scour of substrate surrounding salmonid redds occurs. The time when scour occurs, however, is difficult to measure and usually poorly constrained. The South Fork Tolt River in western Washington supplies the City of Seattle with hydroelectric power and about 40 percent of its municipal water needs, while providing spawning habitat for two salmonid species listed under the Endangered Species Act: Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ). The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Seattle City Light and Seattle Public Utilities, began a study in 2015 using accelerometer scour monitors (ASM) to characterize the timing of and hydrologic conditions associated with streambed scour at the depth of incubating salmonid embryos in the South Fork Tolt River. Prior to this study, operational thresholds for peak discharge on the South Fork Tolt River were 350 cubic feet per second (cfs) in the upper part of the river and 550 cfs in the lower part of the river as measured at USGS streamgages 12148000 and 12148300, respectively. These thresholds were developed from the peak discharge associated with observations of the flattening of redd structure and not from direct measurement of scour at the depth of egg pockets within redds. Accelerometer scour monitors were deployed at the level of salmonid egg pockets in spawning habitat of the South Fork Tolt River to record the temporal pattern of streambed scour at the depth of incubating salmon eggs during fall and winter flood seasons of water years (WY) 2016 and 2017. Thirteen of 48 ASMs deployed during the WY 2016 flood season recorded scour attributed to high streamflow when discharge measured at USGS streamgage 12148300 (the lower river streamgage used as an index gage) was between 969 and 1,360 cfs. Local discharge at individual scour sites varied depending on the timing of tributary inputs and downstream transport of water. During the subsequent flood season in WY 2017, peak discharge at the index gage reached 809 cfs. None of the 38 ASMs deployed recorded scour attributed to streamflow alone, although 10 ASMs recorded localized bed movement attributed to spawning activity of fish. Most scour at the depth of redds measured during WY 2016 occurred at or before peak flood discharge consistent with previous redd scour studies. The lack of scour measured in WY 2017 when peak discharge (809 cfs) was less than the minimum discharge when scour occurred in WY 2016 (969 cfs) suggests minimal to no scour of egg pockets in salmonid redds when discharge is less than 809 cfs.

Washington↗

Ground-water geology and pump irrigation in Frenchman Creek Basin above Palisade, Nebraska

This report describes the geography, geology, and ground-water resources of that part of the Frenchman Creek basin upstream from Palisade, Nebr., an area of about 4,900 square miles. The basin includes all of Phillips County, Colo., and Chase County, Nebr., and parts of Logan, Sedgwick, Washington, and Yuma Counties, Colo., and Dundy, Hayes, Hitchcock, and Perkins Counties, Nebr. The land surface ranges from nearly flat to rolling; choppy hills and interdune saddles are common in the areas of dune sand, and steep bluffs and gullies cut the edges of the relatively flat loess plateaus. Most of the basin is drained by tributaries of Frenchman Creek, but parts of the sandhills are undrained. Farming and livestock raising are the principal industries. Irrigation with ground water has expanded rapidly since 1934. The rocks exposed in the basin are largely unconsolidated and range in age from Pliocene to Recent. They comprise the Ogallala formation (Pliocene), the Sanborn formation (Pleistocene and Recent?), dune sand (Pleistocene and Recent), and alluvium (Recent). The rocks underlying the Ogallala are the Pierre shale (Late Cretaceous) and the White River group (Oligocene). The Pierre shale is relatively impermeable and yields little or no water to wells. The White River group also is relatively impermeable and yields little or no water to wells; however, small to moderate quantities of water possibly may be obtained from wells that penetrate fractured or 'porous' zones in the upper part of the White River group or permeable channel deposits within the group. The Ogallala formation is the main aquifer in the basin and yields moderate to large quantities of water to wells. The Sanborn formation and the dune sand generally lie above the water table, but in areas of high water table the dune sand yields small quantities of water to wells for domestic and stock supplies. The alluvium, which includes the low terrace deposits bordering the major streams, yields small to large quantities of water to wells. The ground-water reservoir is recharged only from precipitation on the basin. Of the average annual precipitation of 19.5 inches, about 0.9 inch infiltrates to the water table, thereby contributing about 220,000 acre-feet of water annually to the ground-water reservoir. About 81 million acre-feet of water that could drain under gravity, and thus theoretically is available to wells, is held in groundwater storage in the basin. Water is discharged from the ground-water reservoir by wells, evaporation and transpiration, springs, seepage into streams, and movement into adjacent areas to the east and southeast. Most of the domestic, stock, and irrigation water supplies and all the public supplies are pumped from wells. During 1953, 96 wells were used to irrigate 10,000 acres of land with 19,000 acre-feet of water. About 34,000 acre-feet of water is evaporated and transpired annually in the valleys of the main streams and in areas of shallow water table in the sandhills. From the projection of base-flow measurements made during 1952, it was estimated that the average annual flow of Frenchman Creek into the reservoir above Enders Dam is about 57,000 acre-feet. By similar determinations, the average annual flow of Frenchman Creek at the gaging station at Palisade, Nebr., about 22 miles downstream from Enders Dam, is about 76,000 acre-feet, and the flow of Stinking Water Creek at the gaging station near Palisade is about 22,000 acre-feet. The combined flow of Frenchman and Stinking Water Creeks at their confluence near Palisade thus is about 98,000 acre-feet per year. About 90,000 acre-feet of ground water is estimated to move eastward each year across the Colorado-Nebraska State line within the basin. Additional irrigation wells that will tap the Ogallala formation and the alluvium in the major valleys undoubtedly will be drilled. On the basis of current estimates of future irrigation.withdrawals, it is concluded that by the

Water Supply Paper↗

Colored shaded-relief bathymetry and acoustic backscatter of Lake Sammamish, Washington

Evidence of strong earthquakes (such as underwater landslides and associated deposits) may be recorded within the lacustrine sediments of Pacific Northwest lakes. The floor of Lake Sammamish, Wash., an approximately 11 kilometer (6.8 mile) long, 2 kilometer (1.2 mile) wide, and 35 meter (114.8 feet) deep lake located in a populated region just east of Seattle, was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey in November of 2021 to search for evidence of past earthquakes. Mapping was conducted using a SWATHplus-M 234-kHz interferometric side-scan sonar system was pole-mounted on the U.S. Geological Survey research vessel Parke Snavely, and the system collected full-coverage bathymetric and acoustic backscatter data, which were processed to 2-meter spatial resolution. Two maps were created, a colored shaded-relief bathymetric map showing lake floor morphology (sheet 1), and an acoustic-backscatter map showing backscatter intensities (sheet 2). The results may then be utilized together to investigate past earthquake activity.

Washington↗

A multifault earthquake threat for the Seattle metropolitan region revealed by mass tree mortality

Compound earthquakes involving simultaneous ruptures along multiple faults often define a region’s upper threshold of maximum magnitude. Yet, the potential for linked faulting remains poorly understood given the infrequency of these events in the historic era. Geological records provide longer perspectives, although temporal uncertainties are too broad to clearly pinpoint single multifault events. Here, we use dendrochronological dating and a cosmogenic radiation pulse to constrain the death dates of earthquake-killed trees along two adjacent fault zones near Seattle, Washington to within a 6-month period between the 923 and 924 CE growing seasons. Our narrow constraints conclusively show linked rupturing that occurred either as a single composite earthquake of estimated magnitude 7.8 or as a closely spaced double earthquake sequence with estimated magnitudes of 7.5 and 7.3. These scenarios, which are not recognized in current hazard models, increase the maximum earthquake size needed for seismic preparedness and engineering design within the Puget Sound region of >4 million residents.

Washington↗

Abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) off central California during the 2017 breeding season

Marbled murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) have been listed as “Endangered” by the State of California and “Threatened” by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 1992 in California, Oregon, and Washington. Information regarding marbled murrelet abundance, distribution, population trends, and habitat associations is critical for risk assessment, effective management and evaluation of conservation efficacy, and ultimately to meet Federal- and State-mandated recovery efforts for this species. During June–August 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center continued previously established, long-term (1999–2016), at-sea surveys to estimate abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conservation Zone 6 (central California—San Francisco Bay to Monterey Bay). Using conventional distance sampling methods, we estimated marbled murrelet abundance using 189 detections of 321 individuals observed on nine unique surveys. The abundance estimated for the entire study area using all surveys in 2017 was 530 birds (95-percent confidence interval, 384–732 birds). Estimated abundance from 2017 is comparable to most prior years of study, except for 2008 and 2015, which had anomalously low abundances. We estimated productivity (calculated as the hatch-year [HY] to after-hatch-year [AHY] ratio) in 2017 using three detections of three individuals observed in six surveys. After date-correcting HY and AHY counts to account for birds expected to be absent from the water while inland at nests, the date-corrected juvenile ratio was 0.022 ± 0.014 standard error. We created a synthesized database of all marbled murrelet survey data from 1999 to 2017 to allow scientists and managers to evaluate established survey methods and assess trends in abundance and productivity estimates. Future modifications of survey design could help reduce variance in abundance estimation.

California↗

Hydrographs showing groundwater levels for selected wells in the Puyallup River watershed and vicinity, Pierce and King Counties, Washington

Hydrographs of groundwater levels for selected wells in and adjacent to the Puyallup River watershed in Pierce and King Counties, Washington, are presented using an interactive Web-based map of the study area to illustrate changes in groundwater levels on a monthly and seasonal basis. The interactive map displays well locations that link to the hydrographs, which in turn link to the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System, Groundwater Site Inventory System.

Washington↗

Implications of physics-based M9 ground motions on liquefaction-induced damage in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: Looking forward and backward

Given the likelihood of future M9 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquakes, various estimates of the resulting, regional ground motions have been made, including a suite of 30 physics-based simulations that reflect key modeling uncertainties. However, because the last CSZ interface rupture occurred in 1700 CE, the shaking expected in such an event is especially uncertain, as are the impacts to the built and living environments. Like other coseismic impacts, soil liquefaction poses a significant threat and must be considered by any scenario study used to inform planning and response, or to focus mitigation resources. Liquefaction is also notable for its potential to “ground truth” ground-motion estimates, given that its presence or absence in the geologic record can provide constraint on the intensities of shaking in past events. It is thus an important phenomenon looking both forward and backward. Accordingly, using recent physics-based simulations, this study (1) predicts liquefaction in M9 CSZ ruptures at 400 locations in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia (BC) using an array of cone-penetration-test based models and (2) uses paleoliquefaction evidence at ten sites spanning from Southern Oregon to Vancouver, BC to constrain possible ground-motion intensities experienced in the 1700 CE earthquake. The forward predictions indicate that liquefaction in M9 events could be pervasive in the region and affect numerous population hubs, with the potential for damage across hundreds of square kilometers. The backward analyses suggest that 1700 CE ground-motion intensities may have been less than expected from M9 simulations in some northern portions of the CSZ (e.g. Seattle), given the paucity of 1700 CE liquefaction evidence in these areas. Ultimately, further discovery and analysis of CSZ paleoliquefaction, or lack thereof, will confirm or modify this possibility and the conclusions drawn herein.

Oregon, Washington↗

Abundance and productivity of Marbled Murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) off central California during the 2020 and 2021 breeding seasons

Marbled murrelets ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) have been listed as “endangered” by the State of California and “threatened” by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service since 1992 in California, Oregon, and Washington. Information regarding marbled murrelet abundance, distribution, population trends, and habitat associations is critical for risk assessment, effective management, evaluation of conservation efficacy, and ultimately, to meet federal- and state-mandated recovery efforts for this species. During June–August 2020 and 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center continued previously established, long-term (1999–present), at-sea surveys to estimate abundance and productivity of marbled murrelets in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conservation Zone 6 (San Francisco Bay to Point Sur in central California). The abundance estimated for the entire study area was 470 birds (95-percent confidence interval, 313–707 birds) in 2020 and 402 birds (95-percent confidence interval, 219–737 birds) in 2021. Estimated abundances for both years are comparable with most prior years of study. We estimated reproductive productivity (calculated as the hatch-year to after-hatch-year ratio) after date-correcting hatch-year and after-hatch-year counts to account for birds expected to be absent from the water while inland at nests. The date-corrected juvenile ratio was 0.018±0.011 standard error in 2020 and 0.041±0.024 standard error in 2021. We updated a comprehensive database of all Zone 6 marbled murrelet survey data since 1999 with 2020–21 data to allow scientists and managers to evaluate established survey methods and assess trends in abundance and productivity estimates.

California↗