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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources

Ground failure triggered by the 7 January 2020 M6.4 Puerto Rico earthquake

The 7 January 2020 M 6.4 Puerto Rico earthquake, the mainshock of an extended earthquake sequence, triggered significant ground failure. In this study, we detail the ground failure that occurred based largely on a postearthquake field reconnaissance campaign that we conducted. We documented more than 300 landslides, mainly rock falls that were concentrated in areas where peak ground acceleration (PGA) exceeded 30% g ; sparse smaller landslides occurred in highly susceptible areas more than 50 km from the epicenter and at PGA values <10% g . Though some of the largest mass movements were in natural slopes, rock falls in road cuts had more impact because they caused widespread transportation disruption. Some structures also were damaged by landslides, but no landslide‐related fatalities were reported. Liquefaction and related lateral spreading were severe in some areas, causing damage to residential and commercial structures and a power plant. Most of the liquefaction occurred in coastal areas where shaking exceeded 50% g , though some of the most damaging instances were in Ponce, where shaking estimates were as low as 20% g . In this article, we summarize the most notable ground failures and detail the overall patterns that we observed. The observations and compiled inventory datasets presented here are valuable because no island‐wide hazard maps for earthquake‐triggered landslides or liquefaction have been developed for Puerto Rico, and postevent inventories are vital for such an effort. In general, the datasets presented here contribute to a global understanding of coseismic ground‐failure hazard by presenting detailed observations for a relatively moderate ground‐failure event with well‐constrained shaking estimates; current models and expectations are biased by the tendency to collect detailed datasets mainly for exceptional events.

Puerto Rico↗

The role of fish in a globally changing food system

Applied research and adaptive management techniques can assist with the necessary evolution of sustainable food systems to include a stronger emphasis on fish and other aquatic organisms. Fish provide key macro‐ and micronutrients and protein, are low in saturated fat, and have been linked to a wide array of health benefits for the developing fetus, infants, and adults. Diet quality is not only important for reducing nutrient deficiency, but is now regarded as essential for preventing chronic diseases such as obesity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, and cancers. Small‐scale aquaculture also contributes to poverty alleviation and promotes food and nutrition security in less developed parts of the world. Climate change and climate variability influence aquatic ecosystems and fish populations. Ocean acidification is most commonly cited as being detrimental to marine invertebrates and algae that build carbonate structures.

Book chapter↗

Assessing spatial variability of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in the California Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta at the landscape scale—2018 high resolution mapping surveys

Executive Summary This study examined the abundance and distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun Bay, comprising three spatial surveys conducted in May, July, and October of 2018 that used continuous underway high frequency sampling and measurements onboard a high-speed boat to characterize spatial variation across the extent of the Delta. The method used involves simultaneously collecting information about the concentration and spatial distribution of all major nutrient forms with analogous information about the major classes of phytoplankton and associated water-quality conditions. The results showed substantial variation across space and time, providing an unprecedented snapshot of the dynamic environmental processes that shape the ways nutrients interact with and affect aquatic habitats in the Delta. The purposes of this study were to improve our understanding of how hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic primary productivity interact to drive nutrient cycling and transport in the Delta and to provide insights into the underlying processes most directly responsible for the conditions at the time of this study, and thus into the range of conditions that may be expected following the wide array of prospective future changes to the Delta. One major anticipated change at the time of this study was the planned upgrade to the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant, but the study also informs our understanding of potential effects from other changes to the Delta, such as those caused by other nutrient-management actions, flow actions, large-scale wetland restoration, drought, flood, levee failure, and changes to water management. Nutrient loading is the primary driver of nutrient concentrations in the Delta, but several other major drivers interact to shape their distribution and effects: geomorphology, hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic productivity. Hydrodynamics affect timescales of transport and dilution of nutrient loads in the Delta. During transit through the system, channel geometry, tidal mixing, and water exports affect hydrodynamics in diverse ways that influence water-residence and transport times, thereby markedly affecting the range of times during which natural internal cycling can alter nutrient concentrations and forms. Channel geometry and location shape tidal energy and river currents into these observed dynamics. Interactions with Delta aquatic landscapes such as herbaceous tidal marsh, submerged aquatic vegetation, and large expanses of intertidal or subtidal sediments (all highly productive landscapes) exert demand on available nutrient supplies but can also simultaneously transform and generate nutrients. Finally, while phytoplankton require nutrients to sustain production and thus are a potential nutrient sink, the amount and form of nutrients also can influence the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that adversely affect aquatic organisms as well as affect the occurrence of beneficial algal blooms that result in production of algae that are favorable for imperiled Delta pelagic aquatic food webs. The surveys revealed a complex mosaic of spatial variation, with nutrient concentrations varying from near zero to well above concentrations considered eutrophic; nutrient concentrations were more often related to the extent of hydrologic transport and mixing than to specific geographic locations or to specific landscape features. Similarly, the surveys identified phytoplankton abundance ranging from near detection to the level of large phytoplankton blooms, with large variation in phytoplankton community composition. Although the study occurred during a period of low bloom activity, phytoplankton productivity appeared to be the strongest potential sink for inorganic nutrients in the Delta, indicating that it is a larger control on nutrient concentrations and distribution than previously understood. Cycling and transformation within the water column only appeared to substantially lower total nutrient concentrations at the longest estimated transport timescales. Contrary to expectations, we did not observe substantial nutrient depletion near landscape-scale features such as open-water habitats, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, extensive wetlands, or exposed sediments, indicating that these habitat types did not act as major sinks for nutrients in the Delta during these surveys. These results indicated that nutrient reduction efforts may have the greatest effect on pelagic phytoplankton productivity in the more productive reaches of the Delta and estuary, but these effects are unlikely to be magnified by changes to nutrient loss within the Delta over conceivable changes in flow conditions, Delta water management actions, or large-scale wetland restoration activities. Nevertheless, local processes were shown to cause substantial loss, and thus integrating of nutrient effects with other indicators of aquatic habitat conditions will help inform planning future actions at specific sites. Finally, we note that the primary contribution of this study was intended to be the survey data themselves. Aside from the results highlighted in this report, the surveys are a benchmark against which future environmental change may be evaluated, including changes to nutrient management or water exports, drought, large-scale wetland restoration, and climate change. Further, although we highlight some of the main findings from the surveys in this report, the necessarily limited scope precludes examination of many topics for which these surveys may be highly informative. To facilitate the utility of these data to stakeholders, managers, and researchers, we have released the data online (Bergamaschi and others, 2020) and created an online data exploration portal ( https:​//ca.water​.usgs.gov/​bay-​delta/​2018-​delta-​wide-​mapping-​surveys.html ) where users may query the surveys in a variety of ways to test hypotheses, examine relationships, assess spatial trends, and download data. The data exploration portal is intended to be an immersive experience that allows users to gain greater understanding of the complex interactions that shape Delta aquatic environments. This report is intended as a companion to the portal, allowing the reader to challenge and further explore the highlighted findings. This study was a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Delta Regional Monitoring Program, with additional funding provided from U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Matching Funds Program.

California↗

Effects of experimental removal of Barred Owls on population Demography of Northern Spotted Owls in Washington and Oregon—2018 Progress Report

Populations of Northern Spotted Owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ; herineafter referred to as Spotted Owl) have declined throughout the subspecies’ geographic range. Evidence indicates that competition with invading Barred Owls ( S. varia ) has contributed significantly to those declines. A pilot study in California showed that removal of Barred Owls coupled with conservation of suitable habitat conditions can slow or even reverse population declines of Spotted Owls. It is unknown, however, whether similar results can be obtained in areas with different forest conditions, greater densities of Barred Owls, and fewer remaining Spotted Owls. We initiated a before-after-control-impact (BACI) experiment at three study areas in Oregon and Washington to determine if removal of Barred Owls can improve population trends of Spotted Owls. This report describes research accomplishments and initial results from the first 3.5 years of the study (March 2015–August 2018).

Oregon, Washington↗

Geochemistry of the processes that attenuate acid mine drainage in wetlands

Because conventional treatment of acid-mine drainage (AMD) involves installation and maintenance of water treatment plants, regulators and mine operators have sought lower cost and lower maintenance technologies. One ecological engineering technology that has received increasing research attention is the use of natural and constructed wetlands for remediation of some of the water-quality problems associated with AMD. As surface water flows through a wetland, several processes can occur to decrease the elevated concentrations of sulfate, trace metals, arsenic, and hydrogen ions that characterize AMD. These processes range from precipitation of mineral phases to the active uptake of solutes by vegetation. The relative importance of these processes between different wetlands depends on the hydrologic and geochemical characteristics of the wetlands. This paper describes the geochemistry of the processes that contribute to AMD attenuation in wetlands and presents some of the case studies that have identified these processes. The attenuation of AMD in wetlands has been studied in natural and in man- made (constructed) wetlands. In this paper, case studies of both are presented. A discussion of some of the general characteristics of wetlands is followed by more detailed discussions of the processes and geochemistry that contribute to the treatment of AMD in wetlands, relevant case studies, and a brief discussion of constructed wetland design. The physical, chemical, and hydrologic characteristics of a wetland that affect its potential for supporting specific types of reactions are also emphasized.

Book chapter↗

The relative contribution of waves, tides, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels on U.S. West Coast sandy beaches

To better understand how individual processes combine to cause flooding and erosion events, we investigate the relative contribution of tides, waves, and nontidal residuals to extreme total water levels (TWLs) at the shoreline of U.S. West Coast sandy beaches. Extreme TWLs, defined as the observed annual maximum event and the simulated 100 year return level event, peak in Washington, and are on average larger in Washington and Oregon than in California. The relative contribution of wave-induced and still water levels (SWL) to the 100 year TWL event is similar to that of the annual maximum event; however, the contribution of storm surge to the SWL doubles across events. Understanding the regional variability of TWLs will lead to a better understanding of how sea level rise, changes in storminess, and possible changes in the frequency of major El Niños may impact future coastal flooding and erosion along the U.S. West Coast and elsewhere.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

The magnitude and origin of groundwater discharge to eastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico coastal waters

Fresh groundwater discharge to coastal environments contributes to the physical and chemical conditions of coastal waters, but the role of coastal groundwater at regional to continental scales remains poorly defined due to diverse hydrologic conditions and the difficulty of tracking coastal groundwater flow paths through heterogeneous subsurface materials. We use three-dimensional groundwater flow models for the first time to calculate the magnitude and source areas of groundwater discharge from unconfined aquifers to coastal waterbodies along the entire eastern U.S. We find that 27.1 km 3 /yr (22.8–30.5 km 3 /yr) of groundwater directly enters eastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico coastal waters. The contributing recharge areas comprised ~175,000 km 2 of U.S. land area, extending several kilometers inland. This result provides new information on the land area that can supply natural and anthropogenic constituents to coastal waters via groundwater discharge, thereby defining the subterranean domain potentially affecting coastal chemical budgets and ecosystem processes.

Gulf of Mexico↗

Effects of tributary debris on the longitudinal profile of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon

The Colorado River in Grand Canyon has long been known as a "rapids-and-pools" river, with the rapids owing their existence primarily to tributary debris flows. The debris flows deposit subaerial debris fans that constrict the channel laterally and, when they enter the river, raise the bed elevation. The rapids are short-wavelength (???0.1 to ???1 km), small-amplitude (??????5 m) convexities in the river's longitudinal profile, arising from the shallow gradient in the upstream pool and the steep gradient through the rapid itself. Analysis of the entire longitudinal profile through Grand Canyon reveals two long-wavelength (???100 km), large-amplitude (15-30 m) river profile convexities: the eastern canyon convexity between river mile (RM) 30 and RM 80 and the western canyon convexity between RM 150 and RM 250. Convexities of intermediate scale are also identified in the longitudinal profile. These longer-wavelength, larger-amplitude convexities have strong spatial correlations with high rates of debris flow occurrence, high densities of Holocene debris fans, the largest debris fans along the river, and alluvial thicknesses of 10 m or more. River profile convexities are unstable and require an active and powerful geologic process to maintain them, in this case the abundant, frequent, and voluminous Holocene debris flow activity in Grand Canyon. At all wavelengths the most likely cause for these river profile convexities is Holocene aggradation of the riverbed beneath them, driven by the coarse particles of tributary debris flows. Large enough debris flows will slow river flow for kilometers upstream, causing it to drop much of its suspended load. Integrated over time and all of the tributary point source contributions, this process will build short-wavelength convexities into long-wavelength convexities. For most if not all of the Holocene the Colorado River has been dissipating most of its energy in the rapids and expending the remainder in transporting fine sediment through Grand Canyon, with little or no regional incision of bedrock.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

Nitrogen and phosphorus speciation and flux in a large Florida river wetland System

Hydrologic measurements and analyses of various nitrogen and phosphorus species were made on the Apalachicola River system in northern Florida in 1979 and 1980. Annual outflows of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were not substantially different from annual inflows. However, there was significant net import of ammonia and soluble reactive phosphorus and net export of some particulate and organic species. The TN: TP ratio ranged from 12 to 15, but the specific ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen: soluble reactive phosphorus was much higher (up to 40) and increased in a downstream direction; this contributed to a phosphorus-limiting situation in Apalachicola estuary. Processes within the flood plain ecosystem accounted for much of the release of organic and particulate species and retention of inorganic species. This flood plain function is probably critical for maintaining a nutrient pool in the estuary which supports secondary productivity and a detrital-based food web.

Florida↗

Potential shifts in zooplankton community structure in response to changing ice regimes and hydrologic connectivity

Changing Arctic climate may alter freshwater ecosystems as a result of warmer surface waters, longer open-water periods, reduced wintertime lake ice growth, and altered hydrologic connectivity. This study aims to characterize zooplankton community composition and size structure in the context of hydrologic connectivity and ice regimes in Arctic lakes. Between 2011 and 2016, we sampled the phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish communities from a set of representative lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska to determine potential food web responses to changing Arctic ecosystems. Multivariate analyses showed that time from ice-out had a strong influence on zooplankton community structure and that seasonal succession of zooplankton differed between lakes with varying hydrologic connectivity. Trends were observed suggesting that large-bodied zooplankton ( Daphnia , calanoid copepods) may be more prevalent in poorly connected lakes with low fish diversity. Large-bodied zooplankton displayed higher biomass in lakes with high occurrences of bedfast ice, while small-bodied zooplankton ( Bosmina , rotifers) displayed highest biomass in deeper lakes with low occurrences of bedfast ice. Our results contribute to limited knowledge of zooplankton in remote lakes of the ACP and suggest that the anticipated changes to aquatic ecosystems in the Arctic may include energetically less efficient plankton food webs.

Alaska↗

A transdisciplinary approach to growing an applied science of cultural evolution for a sustainable future

Addressing sustainability challenges requires an integrative approach that bridges scientific research with practical application. The field of cultural evolution (CE) offers a perspective that may guide transitions and cultural transformations for a sustainable future. However, there have been few efforts to apply this field to sustainability challenges. This study explores how CE can inform sustainability practices through mechanisms of social learning, processes of cultural adaptation and conditions that promote cooperative governance. Through a two-phase research design—comprising online discussions with professionals from six domains, and an international workshop—we examined the perceived benefits, challenges and opportunities for applying CE in real-world contexts. Our findings indicate that professionals recognize CE’s potential to enhance knowledge dissemination, foster adaptation to social–ecological changes, improve governance structures and generate cooperation. However, barriers such as complex terminology, unfamiliarity with CE, the lack of clear, context-specific evidence of added value and competition with existing frameworks hinder its application. To overcome these challenges, we propose simplifying CE concepts, demonstrating its unique contributions, and continuing to foster co-production with practitioners to refine its applicability. This study is an initial step in building an applied science of CE that can support sustainability transformations across diverse domains.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B ↗

Colonial waterbird predation on Lost River and shortnose suckers based on recoveries of passive integrated transponder tags

We evaluated predation on Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ), both listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), from American white pelicans ( Pelecanus erythrorhynchos ) and double-crested cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) nesting at mixed species colonies on Clear Lake Reservoir, CA and Upper Klamath Lake, OR during 2009-2014. Predation was evaluated by recovering passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags that were implanted in suckers, subsequently consumed by pelicans or cormorants, and deposited on the birds&rsquo; nesting colonies. Data from PIT tag recoveries were used to estimate predation rates (proportion of available tagged suckers consumed) by birds to evaluate the relative susceptibility of suckers to avian predation in Upper Klamath Basin. Data on the size of pelican and cormorant colonies (number of breeding adults) at Clear Lake and Upper Klamath Lake were also collected and reported in the context of predation on suckers. Results indicate that predation rates varied by sucker species (Lost River, shortnose), sucker age-class (adult, juvenile), bird colony location (Upper Klamath Lake, Clear Lake), and year (2009-2014), demonstrating that predator-prey interactions in the system were dynamic during the study period. Tagged suckers ranging from 72 mm to 730 mm were susceptible to cormorant or pelican predation; all but the largest of the tagged Lost River suckers were susceptible to avian predation. Estimates of minimum, annual predation rates ranged from <0.1% to 4.6% of the available Lost River suckers and from <0.1% to 4.2% of the available shortnose suckers during the study period. Of the two colony locations evaluated, predation rates on suckers in Clear Lake were generally higher by birds nesting at mixed-species colonies on Clear Lake. Birds nesting on Clear Lake also commuted over 75 kilometers to forage on suckers in Upper Klamath Lake. Conversely, there was no evidence that birds nesting in Upper Klamath Lake foraged on tagged suckers in Clear Lake. Although sample sizes of tagged juvenile suckers were small and limited to fish tagged in Upper Klamath Lake, there was evidence that bird predation on juvenile suckers was higher than on adult suckers, with annual predate rate estimates on juvenile suckers ranging from 5.7% to 8.4% of available fish. The minimum annual predation rates presented here suggests that avian predation may be a factor limiting recovery of populations of Lost River and shortnose suckers, particularly juvenile suckers in Upper Klamath Lake and adult suckers in Clear Lake. Additional research is needed, however, to better assess the impacts of avian predation on sucker populations by (1) recovering PIT tags in a manner so that the species of avian predator is known (i.e., pelican vs. cormorant), (2) measuring predator-specific PIT tag deposition probabilities at each colony, (3) increasing the sample of juvenile suckers in the population that are PIT-tagged, and (4) recovering sufficient sample sizes of PIT tags on bird colonies to describe how various biotic and abiotic factors (e.g., fish size and condition, water levels and quality, and other factors) contribute to sucker susceptibility to avian predation in the Upper Klamath Basin.

California, Oregon↗

Lampricide bioavailability and toxicity to invasive sea lamprey and non-target fishes: The importance of alkalinity, pH, and the gill microenvironment

The lampricides TFM and niclosamide are added to streams to control invasive larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Lampricide effectiveness depends upon TFM and niclosamide bioavailability which is influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. For example, at lower pH, TFM bioavailability is higher because a greater proportion exists as un-ionized TFM (TFM-OH), which easily crosses the gills. At higher pH, however, the negatively charged ionized species of TFM (TFM-O − ) predominates, which is less easily taken-up, meaning more TFM must be applied. Although water alkalinity does not directly affect TFM speciation, as a buffer it influences how much expired water crossing the gills is acidified by CO 2 and metabolic acid excretion. In poorly buffered waters, greater acidification of the expired water increases TFM bioavailability in the gill microenvironment than in better buffered, higher alkalinity waters where more TFM must be applied. Hence, sea lamprey and non-target fishes such as lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) are more sensitive to lampricides in low pH, low alkalinity waters. Differences in gill structure and microenvironment acidification might also explain why TFM sensitivity of young-of-the-year lake sturgeon approaches or exceeds that of sea lamprey in higher alkalinity waters. Other biotic factors such as body size and metabolic rate also contribute to differences in lampricide sensitivity. We conclude that better understanding of the abiotic and biotic factors influencing lampricide bioavailability can be used to refine treatment protocols to improve lampricide effectiveness and to better protect non-target fishes from lampricide toxicity.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Influence of sediment storage on downstream delivery of contaminated sediment

Sediment storage in alluvial valleys can strongly modulate the downstream migration of sediment and associated contaminants through landscapes. Traditional methods for routing contaminated sediment through valleys focus on in‐channel sediment transport but ignore the influence of sediment exchanges with temporary sediment storage reservoirs outside the channel, such as floodplains. In theory, probabilistic analysis of particle trajectories through valleys offers a useful strategy for quantifying the influence of sediment storage on the downstream movement of contaminated sediment. This paper describes a field application and test of this theory, using 137 Cs as a sediment tracer over 45 years (1952–1997), downstream of a historical effluent outfall at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), New Mexico. The theory is parameterized using a sediment budget based on field data and an estimate of the 137 Cs release history at the upstream boundary. The uncalibrated model reasonably replicates the approximate magnitude and spatial distribution of channel‐ and floodplain‐stored 137 Cs measured in an independent field study. Model runs quantify the role of sediment storage in the long‐term migration of a pulse of contaminated sediment, quantify the downstream impact of upstream mitigation, and mathematically decompose the future 137 Cs flux near the LANL property boundary to evaluate the relative contributions of various upstream contaminant sources. The fate of many sediment‐bound contaminants is determined by the relative timescales of contaminant degradation and particle residence time in different types of sedimentary environments. The theory provides a viable approach for quantifying the long‐term movement of contaminated sediment through valleys.

Water Resources Research↗

Spatial and temporal analysis of geologic slip rates, Cucamonga Fault, California, USA: Implications for along-strike applications and multi-fault rupture

To constrain fault processes and hazard, fault slip rates may be extrapolated over different fault lengths or time intervals. Here, we investigate slip rates for the Cucamonga Fault (CF). The CF is located at the junction of the Transverse Range fault system with the San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults, and it is hypothesized to connect with these faults, promoting the propagation of large, multi-fault earthquakes. Previous work has shown that CF displacements on late Quaternary alluvial fan surfaces are highly variable along strike. We present two new 10 Be surface exposure ages from depth profiles on the alluvial fans. Slip rates are consistent with a rate of 1.4 ± 0.3 m/kyr over time intervals of ∼20, ∼30, and ∼40 kyr. If the CF participates in multi-fault ruptures, then these earthquakes occur either rarely or with sufficient regularity to maintain apparently steady rates over multiple intervals. We also explore along-strike fault displacement variability using a calibrated morphological model. The model successfully reproduces scarp profiles and indicates that fault displacement variability can be explained in part by scarp age but not uplift rate. We infer that both erosion by ephemeral gullying and distributed deformation contribute to fault displacement variability, although both are difficult to detect confidently without excavations across the scarp. These investigations show that better characterization of cumulative-slip variability along strike may improve accuracy and precision of slip rates. Slip rates that do not consider epistemic uncertainties may not be suitable for extrapolation over longer fault sections.

California↗

Sources of suspended matter in waters of the Middle Atlantic Bight

Suspended matter collected in the Middle Atlantic Bight (the coastal segment of the United States between Cape Cod and Cape Hatteras) in September 1969 was predominantly organic: an average of 80% combustible organic matter in surface waters and 40)% near bottom. Total suspended concentrations decreased between the inner shelf and the shelf break by an order of magnitude in both near-surface and near-bottom waters. The noncombustible (ash) fraction of the suspended matter decreased over the same distance by one order of magnitude in the near-bottom waters and two orders of magnitude in surface waters. Recently contributed river sediment is not a significant constituent of the suspended matter in the waters of the shelf, particularly the outer shelf. Most of the inorganic material in suspension represents resuspended bottom sediments (at least some of which are relict) whose suspended concentrations are increased noticeably by storms.

Mid-Atlantic Bight↗

The community code verification exercise for simulating sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS)

Numerical simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) have made great progress over past decades to address important questions in earthquake physics. However, significant challenges in SEAS modeling remain in resolving multiscale interactions between earthquake nucleation, dynamic rupture, and aseismic slip, and understanding physical factors controlling observables such as seismicity and ground deformation. The increasing complexity of SEAS modeling calls for extensive efforts to verify codes and advance these simulations with rigor, reproducibility, and broadened impact. In 2018, we initiated a community code-verification exercise for SEAS simulations, supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center. Here, we report the findings from our first two benchmark problems (BP1 and BP2), designed to verify different computational methods in solving a mathematically well-defined, basic faulting problem. We consider a 2D antiplane problem, with a 1D planar vertical strike-slip fault obeying rate-and-state friction, embedded in a 2D homogeneous, linear elastic halfspace. Sequences of quasi-dynamic earthquakes with periodic occurrences (BP1) or bimodal sizes (BP2) and their interactions with aseismic slip are simulated. The comparison of results from 11 groups using different numerical methods show excellent agreements in long-term and coseismic fault behavior. In BP1, we found that truncated domain boundaries influence interseismic stressing, earthquake recurrence, and coseismic rupture, and that model agreement is only achieved with sufficiently large domain sizes. In BP2, we found that complexity of fault behavior depends on how well physical length scales related to spontaneous nucleation and rupture propagation are resolved. Poor numerical resolution can result in artificial complexity, impacting simulation results that are of potential interest for characterizing seismic hazard such as earthquake size distributions, moment release, and recurrence times. These results inform the development of more advanced SEAS models, contributing to our further understanding of earthquake system dynamics.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Permafrost–wildfire interactions: active layer thickness estimates for paired burned and unburned sites in northern high latitudes

As the northern high-latitude permafrost zone experiences accelerated warming, permafrost has become vulnerable to widespread thaw. Simultaneously, wildfire activity across northern boreal forest and Arctic/subarctic tundra regions impacts permafrost stability through the combustion of insulating organic matter, vegetation, and post-fire changes in albedo. Efforts to synthesis the impacts of wildfire on permafrost are limited and are typically reliant on antecedent pre-fire conditions. To address this, we created the FireALT dataset by soliciting data contributions that included thaw depth measurements, site conditions, and fire event details with paired measurements at environmentally comparable burned and unburned sites. The solicitation resulted in 52 466 thaw depth measurements from 18 contributors across North America and Russia. Because thaw depths were taken at various times throughout the thawing season, we also estimated end-of-season active layer thickness (ALT) for each measurement using a modified version of the Stefan equation. Here, we describe our methods for collecting and quality-checking the data, estimating ALT, the data structure, strengths and limitations, and future research opportunities. The final dataset includes 48 669 ALT estimates with 32 attributes across 9446 plots and 157 burned–unburned pairs spanning Canada, Russia, and the United States. The data span fire events from 1900 to 2022 with measurements collected from 2001 to 2023. The time since fire ranges from 0 to 114 years. The FireALT dataset addresses a key challenge: the ability to assess impacts of wildfire on ALT when measurements are taken at various times throughout the thaw season depending on the time of field campaigns (typically June through August) by estimating ALT at the end-of-season maximum. This dataset can be used to address understudied research areas, particularly algorithm development, calibration, and validation for evolving process-based models as well as extrapolating across space and time, which could elucidate permafrost–wildfire interactions under accelerated warming across the high-northern-latitude permafrost zone. The FireALT dataset is available through the Arctic Data Center ( https://doi.org/10.18739/A2RN3092P , Talucci et al., 2024).

Arctic↗