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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Environmental drivers and spatial patterns of antibiotic-resistant, enteric coliforms across a forest–urban riverscape

Antibiotic resistant bacteria are prevalent environmental contaminants in freshwaters, and antibiotic resistance genes circulate throughout the urban water cycle. The increase of antibiotic resistant pathogens threatens public health through direct and indirect exposure, and natural resource managers need information on the spatial patterns of antibiotic resistant bacteria and environmental factors associated with their distribution to improve water quality monitoring and to better assess human, animal, and environmental health risks. We collected water and epilithic biofilm samples and measured physicochemical environmental variables at 29 sites distributed longitudinally in the Green-Duwamish River basin, Washington, USA. We characterized catchment-wide patterns of gram-negative fecal indicator bacteria and hypothesized that the presence of antibiotic resistance would be associated with environmental heterogeneity, bacterial primary ecology, stream compartment, and stream type. Antibiotic resistance was determined by microbial growth on selective media supplemented with 3 different antibiotics (ampicillin, chloramphenicol, or tetracycline). Phenotypic antibiotic resistance was positively associated with disturbance, but resistance to at least 1 antibiotic was also detected in undeveloped river segments, with an 83% overall detection rate (i.e., 24 out of 29 sites, 17 in the mainstem and 7 in tributaries). The most probable number of Escherichia coli was associated with higher levels of antibiotic resistance of non- E. coli coliforms across the basin (ρ = 0.38, p < 0.01) but was not associated with antibiotic resistance of E. coli . Phenotypic resistance was highest among non- E. coli coliforms in the water column of tributaries draining moderately to extensively developed subcatchments. Generalized linear mixed-effects model results showed that 18% of the variance in presence of antibiotic resistance was explained by the fixed effects (summed CV across environmental variables, stream type, primary ecology, and stream compartment), and when a spatial random effect was included, the model explained 27% of the variance. Our study provides new evidence that environmental factors and bacterial primary ecology are important underlying factors associated with spatial patterns of antibiotic resistant enteric coliforms. We used macroecological concepts and a riverscape approach to characterize the distribution of antibiotic resistance with methods applicable to municipalities.

Freshwater Science↗
USGS2008

A regression model for computing index flows describing the median flow for the summer month of lowest flow in Michigan

In 2006, Michigan enacted laws to prevent new large capacity withdrawals from decreasing flows to the extent that they would functionally impair a stream's ability to support characteristic fish populations. The median streamflow for the summer month of lowest flow was specified by state decision makers as the index flow on which likely impacts of withdrawals would be assessed. At sites near long-term streamflow-gaging stations, analysis of streamflow records during July, August, and September was used to determine the index flow. At ungaged sites, an alternate method for computing the index flow was needed. This report documents the development of a method for computing index flows at ungaged stream sites in Michigan. The method is based on a regression model that computes the index water yield, which is the index flow divided by the drainage area. To develop the regression model, index flows were determined on the basis of daily flows measured during July, August, and September at 147 streamflow-gaging stations having 10 or more years of record (considered long-term stations) in Michigan. The corresponding index water yields were statistically related to climatic and basin characteristics upstream from the stations in the regression model. Climatic and basin characteristics selected as explanatory variables in the regression model include two aquifer-transmissivity and hydrologic-soil groups, forest land cover, and normal annual precipitation. Regression model estimates of water yield explain about 70.8 percent of the variability in index water yields indicated by streamflow-gaging station records. Index flows computed on the basis of regression-model estimates of water yield and corresponding drainage areas explain about 94.0 percent of the variability in index flows indicated by streamflow-gaging station records. No regional bias was detected in the regression-based estimates of water yield within seven hydrologic subregions spanning Michigan. Thus, the single regression model developed in this report can be used to produce unbiased estimates of index water yield and flow statewide. In addition, a technique is presented for computing prediction intervals about the index flow estimates.

Michigan↗
USGS2011

Occupancy and abundance of wintering birds in a dynamic agricultural landscape

Assessing wildlife management action requires monitoring populations, and abundance often is the parameter monitored. Recent methodological advances have enabled estimation of mean abundance within a habitat using presence–absence or count data obtained via repeated visits to a sample of sites. These methods assume populations are closed and intuitively assume habitats within sites change little during a field season. However, many habitats are highly variable over short periods. We developed a variation of existing occupancy and abundance models that allows for extreme spatio‐temporal differences in habitat, and resulting changes in wildlife abundance, among sites and among visits to a site within a field season. We conducted our study in sugarcane habitat within the Everglades Agricultural Area southeast of Lake Okeechobee in south Florida. We counted wintering birds, primarily passerines, within 245 sites usually 5 times at each site during December 2006–March 2007. We estimated occupancy and mean abundance of birds in 6 vegetation states during the sugarcane harvest and allowed these parameters to vary temporally or spatially within a vegetation state. Occupancy and mean abundance of the common yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ) was affected by structure of sugarcane and uncultivated edge vegetation (occupancy = 1.00 [ = 0.96–1.00] and mean abundance = 7.9 [ = 3.2–19.5] in tall sugarcane with tall edge vegetation versus 0.20 [ = 0.04–0.71] and 0.22 [ = 0.04–1.2], respectively, in short sugarcane with short edge vegetation in one half of the study area). Occupancy and mean abundance of palm warblers ( Dendroica palmarum ) were constant (occupancy = 1.00, = 0.69–1.00; mean abundance = 18, = 1–270). Our model may enable wildlife managers to assess rigorously effects of future edge habitat management on avian distribution and abundance within agricultural landscapes during winter or the breeding season. The model may also help wildlife managers make similar management decisions involving other dynamic habitats such as wetlands, prairies, and even forested areas if forest management or fires occur during the field season.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Iterative models for early detection of invasive species across spread pathways

Species distribution models can be used to direct early detection of invasive species, if they include proxies for invasion pathways. Due to the dynamic nature of invasion, these models violate assumptions of stationarity across space and time. To compensate for issues of stationarity, we iteratively update regionalized species distribution models annually for European gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar dispar ) to target early detection surveys for the USDA APHIS gypsy moth program. We defined regions based on the distances from the invasion spread front where shifts in variable importance occurred and included models for the non-quarantine portion of the state of Maine, a short-range region, an intermediate region, and a long-range region. We considered variables that represented potential gypsy moth movement pathways within each region, including transportation networks, recreational activities, urban characteristics, and household movement data originating from gypsy moth infested areas (U.S. Postal Service address forwarding data). We updated the models annually, linked the models to an early detection survey design, and validated the models for the following year using predicted risk at new positive detection locations. Human-assisted pathways data, such as address forwarding, became increasingly important predictors of gypsy moth detection in the intermediate-range geographic model as more predictor data accumulated over time (relative importance = 5.9%, 17.36%, and 35.76% for 2015, 2016, and 2018, respectively). Receiver operating curves showed increasing performance for iterative annual models (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.63, 0.76, and 0.84 for 2014, 2015, and 2016 models, respectively), and boxplots of predicted risk each year showed increasing accuracy and precision of following year positive detection locations. The inclusion of human-assisted pathway predictors combined with the strategy of iterative modeling brings significant advantages to targeting early detection of invasive species. We present the first published example of iterative species distribution modeling for invasive species in an operational context.

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Wes↗
USGS2017

Multi-scale 46-year remote sensing change detection of diamond mining and land cover in a conflict and post-conflict setting

The town of Tortiya was created in the rural northern region of Côte d′Ivoire in the late 1940s to house workers for a new diamond mine. Nearly three decades later, the closure of the industrial-scale diamond mine in 1975 did not diminish the importance of diamond profits to the region's economy, and resulted in the growth of artisanal and small-scale diamond mining (ASM) within the abandoned industrial-scale mining concession. In the early 2000s, the violent conflict that arose in Côte d′Ivoire highlighted the importance of ASM land use to the local economy, but also brought about international concerns that diamond profits were being used to fund the rebellion. In recent years, cashew plantations have expanded exponentially in the region, diversifying economic activity, but also creating the potential for conflict between diamond mining and agricultural land uses. As the government looks to address the future of Tortiya and this potential conflict, a detailed spatio-temporal understanding of the changes in these two land uses over time may assist in informing policymaking. Remotely sensed imagery presents an objective and detailed spatial record of land use/land cover (LULC), and change detection methods can provide quantitative insight regarding regional land cover trends. However, the vastly different scales of ASM and cashew orchards present a unique challenge to comprehensive understanding of land use change in the region. In this study, moderate-scale categories of LULC, including cashew orchards, uncultivated forest, urban space, mining/ bare, and mixed vegetation, were produced through supervised classification of Landsat multispectral imagery from 1984, 1991, 2000, 2007, and 2014. The fine-scale ASM land use was identified through manual interpretation of annually acquired high resolution satellite imagery. Corona imagery was also integrated into the study to extend the temporal duration of the remote sensing record back to the period of industrial-scale mining. These different-scale analyses were then integrated to create a record of 46 years of mining activity and land cover change in Tortiya. While similar in spatial extent, the mining/ bare class in the integrated analysis exhibits a substantially different spatial distribution than in the original classifications. This additional information regarding the locations of ASM activity in the Tortiya area is important from a policy and planning perspective. The results of this study also suggest that LULC classifications of Landsat imagery do not consistently capture areas of ASM in the Côte d′Ivoire landscape.

Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environme↗
USGS2018

Greater sage-grouse science (2015–17)—Synthesis and potential management implications

Executive Summary The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter called “sage-grouse”), a species that requires sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), has experienced range-wide declines in its distribution and abundance. These declines have prompted substantial research and management investments to improve the understanding of sage-grouse and its habitats and reverse declines in distribution and population numbers. Over the past two decades, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has responded to eight petitions to list the sage-grouse under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, with the completion of the most recent listing determination in September 2015. At that time, the USFWS determined that the sage-grouse did not warrant a listing, primarily because of the large scale science-based conservation and planning efforts completed or started by Federal, State, local agencies, private landowners, and other entities across the range. The planning efforts culminated in the development of the 2015 Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and U.S. Forest Service Land Use Plan Amendments, which provided regulatory certainty and commitment from Federal land-management agencies to limit, mitigate, and track anthropogenic disturbance and implement other sage-grouse conservation measures. After these policy decisions, the scientific community has continued to refine and expand the knowledge available to inform implementation of management actions, increase the efficiency and effectiveness of those actions, and continue developing an overall understanding of sage-grouse populations, habitat requirements, and their response to human activity and other habitat changes. The development of science has been driven by multiple prioritization documents including the “Greater Sage-Grouse National Research Strategy” (Hanser and Manier, 2013) and, most recently, the “Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan” (Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan Team, 2016). In October 2017, after a review of the 2015 Federal plans relative to State sage-grouse plans, in accordance with Secretarial Order 3353, the BLM issued a notice of intent to consider whether to amend some, all, or none of the 2015 land use plans. At that time, the BLM requested the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to inform this effort through the development of an annotated bibliography of sage-grouse science published since January 2015 and a report that synthesized and outlined the potential management implications of this new science. Development of the annotated bibliography resulted in the identification and summarization of 169 peer-reviewed scientific publications and reports. The USGS then convened an interagency team (hereafter referred to as the “team”) to develop this report that focuses on the primary topics of importance to the ongoing management of sage-grouse and their habitats. The team developed this report in a three-step process. First, the team identified six primary topic areas for discussion based on the members’ collective knowledge regarding sage-grouse, their habitats, and threats to either or both. Second, the team reviewed all the material in the “Annotated Bibliography of Scientific Research on Greater Sage-Grouse Published since January 2015” to identify the science that addressed the topics. Third, team members discussed the science related to each topic, evaluated the consistency of the science with existing knowledge before 2015, and summarized the potential management implications of this science. The six primary topics identified by the team were: Multiscale habitat suitability and mapping tools Discrete anthropogenic activities Diffuse activities Fire and invasive species Restoration effectiveness Population estimation and genetics

Open-File Report↗
USGS2026

High-resolution transboundary vegetation community maps of the Sonoran and Mojave Desert ecoregion to support critical landscape conservation planning and habitat management needs

We produced a 30-m resolution binational land cover map of Bird Conservation Region 33 (BCR 33) for the U.S. North American Bird Conservation Initiative. The region covers large portions of the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. The map can support the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) Migratory Bird Program’s recovery planning efforts and constitutes the first known binational land cover dataset spanning sections of the United States–Mexico border and using a consistent classification system for both countries. The mapped region includes 152 distinct land cover classes, covering a total area of 38,421,453 ha (148,345 mi 2 ), of which 13,148,345 ha (52,706 mi 2 ) are located in Mexico and 24,770,640 ha (95,639 mi 2 ) in the United States. We primarily used Landsat 8 (OLI) imagery, supplemented by limited ground surveys from two field campaigns, drone-based aerial data, and existing vegetation classification frameworks from both countries. The classification applied a data-fusion approach integrating 30-m Landsat 8 imagery, decadal phenology metrics from vegetation indices, and a random forest model trained mainly with datasets from a comprehensive national mapping project from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP Analysis Project (GAP) and federal wildland fire agencies’ Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) (GAP/LANDFIRE) [United States side] and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) [Mexico side] as well as land cover maps and opportunistic open-access and field observations. Mapping of the full BCR 33 region was carried out in two phases: 1) Phase I, the prototype map, covered a smaller portion of the transboundary area and identified 31 land cover classes, and 2) Phase II, the full BCR 33 map (refer to Figure 1), which resulted in 152 land cover classes. Using a Random Forest classifier, we achieved an overall prediction accuracy of 92% for the Phase I map and 87% for the Phase II full region map. This slight decrease can be attributed to working on a larger, more complex area with a greater number of land cover classes. No formal validation was conducted, aside from using a subset of the collected field observations and training data to assess model performance during and after training. The training sites were further verified using Google Earth (Google, 2026) imagery. Two undergraduate students who worked for over a year visually inspected imagery and open access public images to confirm each training site during model training using in-house developed, online, visual tools. A portion of this field training data was reserved for model validation, and the corresponding results are to be presented in later sections. The project developed an end-to-end, medium- and fine-resolution remote sensing–based data fusion mapping approach. This effort produced a map (Nagler et al., 2025) and the online tools to support a dynamic, live, online map for visualizing the transboundary vegetation communities in BCR 33. The toolset is currently hosted by the University of Arizona (UofA) Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Lab to support FWS partners (https://vip.arizona.edu/viplab_data_explorer?LCM_BCR33). The online map is designed to allow rapid updates using new training, validation, or correction data, making it dynamic and maintainable. The approach we took established a framework for rapid updating and correction of land cover maps, as the model can be quickly retrained with new field observations, updated training data, or other sources. This enables dynamic mapping and change detection of the region’s vegetation. This framework is an advance in data fusion and crowdsourced mapping of complex, vulnerable regions, providing support to regional stakeholders and the wider user community. This transboundary map can inform the protection, conservation, and restoration of vegetation, habitat, and ecosystems, particularly for threatened and endangered species across the two nations using consistent and harmonized binational mapping systems. Beyond supporting land management decisions and stakeholders in the transboundary desert ecoregions, this BCR 33 mapping effort establishes a foundation for future rapid, low-cost, cross-border land cover mapping that can benefit and advance ecosystem management.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Nevada, Sina↗
USGS1977

Abundance coefficients, a new method for measuring microorganism relative abundance

A new method of measuring the relative abundance of microorganisms by using a set of interrelated coefficients, termed 'abundance coefficients' or 'AC', is proposed. These coefficients provide a means of recording abundance for geometric density categories, and each density measurement represents an approximation of the Poisson parameter ??t. The AC is the natural logarithm of a 'characteristic value,' which is a particular number for each geometric density category. The 'characteristic values' are based upon a probabilistic error statement derived from the Poisson formula, and they present evidence for separation of the geometric category boundaries by e = 2.71828. The proposed AC provide a means for recording species abundance in a manner suitable for arithmetic manipulation, for population structure studies, and for the determination of practical limits for defining the presence or absence of a species. Further, these coefficients provide for both intrasample and intersample abundance comparisons. ?? 1977 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Mathematical Geology↗
USGS2008

Use of an integrated flow model to estimate ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics at stream biomonitoring sites

We developed an integrated hydroecological model to provide a comprehensive set of hydrologic variables representing five major components of the flow regime at 856 aquatic-invertebrate monitoring sites in New Jersey. The hydroecological model simulates streamflow by routing water that moves overland and through the subsurface from atmospheric delivery to the watershed outlet. Snow accumulation and melt, evapotranspiration, precipitation, withdrawals, discharges, pervious- and impervious-area runoff, and lake storage were accounted for in the water balance. We generated more than 78 flow variables, which describe the frequency, magnitude, duration, rate of change, and timing of flow events. Highly correlated variables were filtered by principal component analysis to obtain a non-redundant subset of variables that explain the majority of the variation in the complete set. This subset of variables was used to evaluate the effect of changes in the flow regime on aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure at 856 biomonitoring sites. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to evaluate variation in aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure across a disturbance gradient. We employed multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to build a series of MLR models that identify the most important environmental and hydrologic variables driving the differences in the aquatic-invertebrate assemblages across the disturbance gradient. The first axis of NMS ordination was significantly related to many hydrologic, habitat, and land-use/land-cover variables, including the average number of annual storms producing runoff, ratio of 25-75% exceedance flow (flashiness), diversity of natural stream substrate, and the percentage of forested land near the stream channel (forest buffer). Modifications in the hydrologic regime as the result of changes in watershed land use appear to promote the retention of highly tolerant aquatic species; in contrast, species that are sensitive to hydrologic instability and other anthropogenic disturbance become much less prevalent. We also found strong relations between an index of invertebrate-assemblage impairment, its component metrics, and the primary disturbance gradient. The process-oriented watershed modeling approach used in this study provides a means to evaluate how natural landscape features interact with anthropogenic factors and assess their effects on flow characteristics and stream ecology. By combining watershed modeling and indirect ordination techniques, we were able to identify components of the hydrologic regime that have a considerable effect on aquatic-assemblage structure and help in developing short- and long-term management measures that mitigate the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in stream systems.

New Jersey↗
USGS2022

What determines the effectiveness of Pinyon-Juniper clearing treatments? Evidence from the remote sensing archive and counter-factual scenarios

In the intermountain western US, expansion of Pinyon ( Pinus edulis) and Juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (PJ) into grasslands and shrublands is a pervasive phenomenon, and an example of the global trend towards enhanced woody growth in drylands. Due to the perceived impacts of these expansions on ecosystem services related to biodiversity, hydrology, soil stability, fire prevention, and livestock forage, mechanical and chemical PJ reduction treatments have been a long-standing practice in the region. More recently, PJ reduction practices have come under enhanced public scrutiny, due to potential impacts on PJ-dependent wildlife, risk of erosion due to soil disturbance, and cost effectiveness due to variable rates of long-term success. Moreover, there is growing interest in understanding the biotic, abiotic, and management conditions under which PJ reduction treatments are effective. Here, we evaluated PJ reduction treatment outcomes leveraging large, curated databases of land treatments, new remotely sensed fractional cover time-series products, gridded climate and soils data, and analytical approaches adopted from the econometric literature. From 302 treatment events and 1569 distinct treatment polygons we found evidence that treatments reduced tree cover and largely increased shrub and perennial herbaceous cover for 10 or more years. However, treatments were also associated with increases in annual, likely non-native, herbaceous cover . Importantly, we noted treatment outcomes varied by landscape context, with some soil and geomorphic settings exhibiting consistent returns to pre-treatment conditions within 10–15 years, and others exhibiting more persistent changes in functional type composition. Despite the overall trends we observed, there was considerable unexplained variability in outcomes from treatment to treatment, highlighting the need for caution and attention to local geomorphic and biological context in planning future treatments.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2002

The effects of partial cutting on stand structure and growth of western hemlock-Sitka spruce stands in southeast Alaska

The effects of partial cutting on species composition, new and residual-tree cohorts, tree size distribution, and tree growth was evaluated on 73 plots in 18 stands throughout southeast Alaska. These partially cut stands were harvested 12-96 years ago, when 16-96% of the former stand basal area was removed. Partial cutting maintained stand structures similar to uncut old-growth stands, and the cutting had no significant effects on tree species composition. The establishment of new-tree cohorts was positively related to the proportion of basal-area cut. The current stand basal area, tree species composition, and stand growth were significantly related to trees left after harvest (p < 0.001). Trees that were 20-80 cm dbh at the time of cutting had the greatest tree-diameter and basal-area growth and contributed the most to stand growth. Diameter growth of Sitka spruce and western hemlock was similar, and the proportion of stand basal-area growth between species was consistent for different cutting intensities. Concerns about changing tree species composition, lack of spruce regeneration, and greatly reduced stand growth and vigor with partial cuts were largely unsubstantiated. Silvicultural systems based on partial cutting can provide rapidly growing trees for timber production while maintaining complex stand structures with mixtures of spruce and hemlock trees similar to oldgrowth stands.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2013

Pyroclastic density currents associated with the 2008-2009 eruption of Chaitén Volcano (Chile): forest disturbances, deposits, and dynamics

Explosive activity at Chaitén Volcano in May 2008 and subsequent dome collapses over the following nine months triggered multiple, small-volume pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). The explosive activity triggered PDCs to the north and northeast, which felled modest patches of forest as far as 2 km from the caldera rim. Felled trees pointing in the down-current direction dominate the disturbance zones. The PDC on the north flank of Chaitén left a decimeters-thick, bipartite deposit having a basal layer of poorly sorted, fines-depleted pumice-and-lithic coarse ash and lapilli, which transitions abruptly to fines-enriched pumice-and-lithic coarse ash. The deposit contains fragments of mostly uncharred organics near its base; vegetation protruding above the deposit is uncharred. The nature of the forest disturbance and deposit characteristics suggest the PDC was dilute, of relatively low temperature (<200°C), and to first approximation had a dynamic pressure of about 2-4 kPa and velocity of about 30-40 ms -1 . It was formed by directionally focused explosions throughout the volcano's prehistoric, intracaldera lava dome. Dilute, low-temperature PDCs that exited the caldera over a low point on the east-southeast caldera rim deposited meters-thick fill of stratified beds of pumice-and-lithic coarse ash and lapilli. They did not fell large trees more than a few hundred of meters from the caldera rim and were thus less energetic than those on the north and northeast flanks. They likely formed by partial collapses of the margins of vertical eruption columns. In the Chaitén River valley south of the volcano, several-meter-thick deposits of two block-and-ash flow (BAF) PDCs are preserved. Both have a coarse ash matrix that supports blocks and lapilli predominantly of lithic rhyolite dome rock, minor obsidian, and local bedrock. One deposit was emplaced by a BAF that traveled an undetermined distance downvalley between June and November 2008, apparently triggered by partial collapse of a newly effused lava dome on that started growing on 12 May. A second, and larger, BAF related to another collapse of the new lava dome on 19 February 2009 traveled to within 3 km of the village of Chaitén, 10 km downstream of the volcano. It deposited as much as 8-10 m of diamict having sedimentary characteristics very similar to the previous BAF deposit. Charred trees locally encased within the BAD deposits suggest that the flows were of moderate temperature, perhaps as much as 300°C. Erosion of the BAD deposits filling the Chaitén River channel has delivered substantial sediment loads downstream, contributing to channel instability and challenged river management.

Chait�n↗
USGS2001

Assessment of habitat, fish communities, and streamflow requirements for habitat protection, Ipswich River, Massachusetts, 1998-99

The relations among stream habitat, fish communities, and hydrologic conditions were investigated in the Ipswich River Basin in northeastern Massachusetts. Data were assessed from 27 sites on the mainstem of the Ipswich River from July to September 1998 and from 10 sites on 5 major tributaries in July and August 1999. Habitat assessments made in 1998 determined that in a year with sustained streamflow for most of the summer, the Ipswich River contains diverse, high-quality aquatic habitat. Channel types are predominantly low gradient glides, pools, and impoundments, with a sandy streambed and a forest or shrub riparian zone. Features that provide fish habitat are located mostly along stream margins; these features include overhanging brush, undercut banks, exposed roots, and woody debris. These habitat features decrease in availability to aquatic communities with declining streamflows and generally become unavailable after streamflows drop to the point where the edge of water recedes from the stream banks. The mainstem and tributaries were sampled to determine fish species composition, relative abundance, and length frequency. Fish sampling indicates that the fish community in the Ipswich River is currently a warm-water fish community dominated by pond-type fish. However, historical temperature data, and survival of stocked trout in the mainstem Ipswich into late summer of 1998, indicate that the Ipswich River potentially could support cold-water fish species if adequate flows are maintained. Dominant fish species sampled in the mainstem Ipswich River were redfin pickerel ( Esox americanus ), American eel ( Anguilla rostrata ), and pumpkinseed ( Lepomis gibbosus ), which together represented 41, 22, and 10 percent, respectively, of 4,745 fish sampled. The fish communities of the mainstem and tributaries contained few fluvial-dependent or fluvial-specialist species (requiring flow), and were dominated by macrohabitat generalists (tolerant of low-flow, warm-water, and ponded conditions). In comparison to a nearby river (Lamprey River, N.H.), and a reference fish community developed for inland New England streams, the Ipswich fish community would be expected to have appreciably higher percentages of fluvial-dependent and fluvial-specialist species were streamflows restored. Four riffle sites on the mainstem of the Ipswich River were identified as critical habitat areas because they are among the first sites to exhibit fish-passage problems or to dry during low flows. A watershed-scale precipitation-runoff model previously developed for the Ipswich River was used to simulate streamflows at these four sites for the period 1961­95 under no withdrawals (for water supply) and 1991 land use to evaluate habitat suitability under conditions that approximate the natural flow conditions. These simulated flows were used to calculate streamflow requirements by the Tennant and New England Aquatic-Base-Flow methods. Stream channels were surveyed at the critical riffle sites, and Water Surface Profile models were used to simulate streamflows and hydraulic characteristics needed for determining streamflow requirements by use of the Wetted-Perimeter and R2Cross methods. Normalized by drainage area to units of cubic feet per second per square mile, these methods yielded the following streamflow requirements: 0.50 cubic feet per second per square mile for the Tennant 30-percent Q MA method, 0.42 cubic feet per second per square mile for the wetted-perimeter value necessary to maintain wetted perimeter at three altered riffle sites, 0.42 cubic feet per second per square mile for the R2Cross value required to maintain R2Cross hydraulic criteria at a natural riffle site, and 0.34 cubic feet per second per square mile for the aquatic-base-flow median of monthly mean flows for August for the simulated 1961­95 period under no withdrawals and 1991 land use. The mean streamflow requirement determined from these four methods is 0.42 cubic feet per second per square mile. This flow would represent an average flow-exceedence value for the six study sites of about 77 percent under simulated flows with no withdrawals. For these flows, the 70-, 80-, and 90-percent exceedence flows averaged 0.59, 0.37, and 0.21 cubic feet per second per square mile, respectively, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow statistic at the two gaged sites averaged 0.08 cubic feet per second per square mile. Simulated flows under no withdrawals were used to determine monthly mean flows and other flow statistics used in the Range of Variability Approach to define a flow regime that mimics the river's natural flow regime.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2007

Alternative community structures in a kelp-urchin community: A qualitative modeling approach

Shifts in interaction patterns within a community may result from periodic disturbances and climate. The question arises as to the extent and significance of these shifting patterns. Using a novel approach to link qualitative mathematical models and field data, namely using the inverse matrix to identify the community matrix, we reconstructed community networks from kelp forests off the Oregon Coast. We simulated all ecologically plausible interactions among community members, selected the models whose outcomes match field observations, and identified highly frequent links to characterize the community network from a particular site. We tested all possible biologically reasonable community networks through qualitative simulations, selected those that matched patterns observed in the field, and further reduced the set of possibilities by retaining those that were stable. We found that a community can be represented by a set of alternative structures, or scenarios. From 11,943,936 simulated models, 0.23% matched the field observations; moreover, only 0.006%, or 748 models, were highly reliable in their predictions and met conditions for stability. Predator-prey interactions as well as non-predatory relationships were consistently found in most of the 748 models. These highly frequent connections were useful to characterize the community network in the study site. We suggest that alternative networks provide the community with a buffer to disturbance, allowing it to continuously reorganize to adapt to a variable environment. This is possible due to the fluctuating capacities of foraging species to consume alternate resources. This suggestion is sustained by our results, which indicate that none of the models that matched field observations were fully connected. This plasticity may contribute to the persistence of these communities. We propose that qualitative simulations represent a powerful technique to raise new hypotheses concerning community dynamics and to reconstruct guidelines that may govern community patterns. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2020

Lessons learned implementing an operational continuous United States national land change monitoring capability: The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) approach

Growing demands for temporally specific information on land surface change are fueling a new generation of maps and statistics that can contribute to understanding geographic and temporal patterns of change across large regions, provide input into a wide range of environmental modeling studies, clarify the drivers of change, and provide more timely information for land managers. To meet these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey has implemented a capability to monitor land surface change called the Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative. This paper describes the methodological foundations and lessons learned during development and testing of the LCMAP approach. Testing and evaluation of a suite of 10 annual land cover and land surface change data sets over six diverse study areas across the United States revealed good agreement with other published maps (overall agreement ranged from 73% to 87%) as well as several challenges that needed to be addressed to meet the goals of robust, repeatable, and geographically consistent monitoring results from the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm. First, the high spatial and temporal variability of observational frequency led to differences in the number of changes identified, so CCDC was modified such that change detection is dependent on observational frequency. Second, the CCDC classification methodology was modified to improve its ability to characterize gradual land surface changes. Third, modifications were made to the classification element of CCDC to improve the representativeness of training data, which necessitated replacing the random forest algorithm with a boosted decision tree. Following these modifications, assessment of prototype Version 1 LCMAP results showed improvements in overall agreement (ranging from 85% to 90%).

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2016

Discontinuities concentrate mobile predators: Quantifying organism-environment interactions at a seascape scale

Understanding environmental drivers of spatial patterns is an enduring ecological problem that is critical for effective biological conservation. Discontinuities (ecologically meaningful habitat breaks), both naturally occurring (e.g., river confluence, forest edge, drop-off) and anthropogenic (e.g., dams, roads), can influence the distribution of highly mobile organisms that have land- or seascape scale ranges. A geomorphic discontinuity framework, expanded to include ecological patterns, provides a way to incorporate important but irregularly distributed physical features into organism–environment relationships. Here, we test if migratory striped bass ( Morone saxatilis ) are consistently concentrated by spatial discontinuities and why. We quantified the distribution of 50 acoustically tagged striped bass at 40 sites within Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts during four-monthly surveys relative to four physical discontinuities (sandbar, confluence, channel network, drop-off), one continuous physical feature (depth variation), and a geographic location variable (region). Despite moving throughout the estuary, striped bass were consistently clustered in the middle geographic region at sites with high sandbar area, close to channel networks, adjacent to complex confluences, with intermediate levels of bottom unevenness, and medium sized drop-offs. In addition, the highest striped bass concentrations occurred at sites with the greatest additive physical heterogeneity (i.e., where multiple discontinuities co-occurred). The need to incorporate irregularly distributed features in organism–environment relationships will increase as high-quality telemetry and GIS data accumulate for mobile organisms. The spatially explicit approach we used to address this challenge can aid both researchers who seek to understand the impact of predators on ecosystems and resource managers who require new approaches for biological conservation.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2020

Mortality predispositions of conifers across western USA

Conifer mortality rates are increasing in western North America, but the physiological mechanisms underlying this trend are not well understood. We examined tree‐ring‐based radial growth along with stable carbon (C) and oxygen (O) isotope composition ( δ 13 C and δ 18 O, respectively) of dying and surviving conifers at eight old‐growth forest sites across a strong moisture gradient in the western USA to retrospectively investigate mortality predispositions. Compared with surviving trees, lower growth of dying trees was detected at least one decade before mortality at seven of the eight sites. Intrinsic water‐use efficiency increased over time in both dying and surviving trees, with a weaker increase in dying trees at five of the eight sites. C starvation was a strong correlate of conifer mortality based on a conceptual model incorporating growth, δ 13 C, and δ 18 O. However, this approach does not capture processes that occur in the final months of survival. Ultimately, C starvation may lead to increased mortality vulnerability, but hydraulic failure or biotic attack may dominate the process during the end stages of mortality in these conifers.

New Phytologist↗
USGS2008

Evaluating the effects of historical land cover change on summertime weather and climate in New Jersey: Land cover and surface energy budget changes

The 19th-century agrarian landscape of New Jersey (NJ) and the surrounding region has been extensively transformed to the present-day land cover by urbanization, reforestation, and localized areas of deforestation. This study used a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model to investigate the sensitivity of the warm season climate of NJ to these land cover changes. Reconstructed 1880s-era and present-day land cover data sets were used as surface boundary conditions for a set of simulations performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Three-member ensembles with historical and present-day land cover were compared to examine the sensitivity of surface air and dew point temperatures, rainfall, and the individual components of the surface energy budget to these land cover changes. Mean temperatures for the present-day landscape were 0.3-0.6??C warmer than for the historical landscape over a considerable portion of NJ and the surrounding region, with daily maximum temperatures at least 1.0??C warmer over some of the highly urbanized locations. Reforested regions, however, were slightly cooler. Dew point temperatures decreased by 0.3-0.6??C, suggesting drier, less humid near-surface air for the present-day landscape. Surface warming was generally associated with repartitioning of net radiation from latent to sensible heat flux, and conversely for cooling. While urbanization was accompanied by strong surface albedo decreases and increases in net shortwave radiation, reforestation and potential changes in forest composition have generally increased albedos and also enhanced landscape heterogeneity. The increased deciduousness of forests may have further reduced net downward longwave radiation. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

New Jersey↗