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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources

Reduced channel conveyance on the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas, 1900-2009

Recent floods on the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas, have reached higher stages compared to historical floods of similar magnitude discharges. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has operated streamflow-gaging station 07312500 Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Tex., since 1938 and flood measurements near the location of the present gage were first made in 1900. Floods recorded in 2007 and 2008 at this gaging station, including the record flood of June 30, 2007, reached higher stages compared to historical floods before 1972 of similar peak discharges. For flood measurements made at stages of more than 18 feet, peak stages were about 1 to 3 feet higher compared to peak stages of similar peak discharges measured before 1972. Flood measurements made at stages of more than 18 feet also indicate a decrease in the measured mean velocity from about 3.5 to about 2.0 feet per second from 1941 to 2008. The increase in stage and decrease in streamflow velocity for similar magnitude floods indicates channel conveyance has decreased over time. A study to investigate the causes of reduced channel conveyance in the Wichita River reach from Loop 11 downstream to River Road in Wichita Falls was done by the USGS in cooperation with the City of Wichita Falls. Historical photographs indicate substantial growth of riparian vegetation downstream from Loop 11 between 1950 and 2009. Aerial photographs taken between 1950 and 2008 also indicate an increase in riparian vegetation. Twenty-five channel cross sections were surveyed by the USGS in this reach in 2009. These cross sections were located at bridge crossings or collocated with channel cross sections previously surveyed in 1986 for use in a floodplain mapping study by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Four channel cross sections 3,400 to 11,900 feet downstream from Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard indicate narrowing of the channel. The remaining channel cross sections surveyed in 2009 by the USGS compared favorably with cross sections surveyed in 1986 for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, with no substantial differences noted. Comparison of channel cross sections surveyed in 2009 to those from historic bridge plans indicate no change in cross section has occurred at most of the bridges from Loop 11 downstream to River Road in Wichita Falls, except for obstructions noted at the Scott Avenue bridge and Martin Luther King Jr. bridge. Although obstructions in the channel at these bridges only partially block flow, they could also be contributing to reduced channel conveyance. Step-backwater profiles were used by the USGS to verify channel roughness. The main channel roughness coefficients (Manning's n values) from 2009 surveys were virtually unchanged from those used in a 1991 hydraulic model done for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The average overbank roughness coefficient (Manning's n value) was 0.15, more than double the value of 0.06 used in the 1991 hydraulic model. Increased overbank vegetation has resulted in higher stages conveying the same amount of discharge, particularly for discharges more than 4,000 cubic feet per second.

Texas↗

AVHRR composite period selection for land cover classification

Multitemporal satellite image datasets provide valuable information on the phenological characteristics of vegetation, thereby significantly increasing the accuracy of cover type classifications compared to single date classifications. However, the processing of these datasets can become very complex when dealing with multitemporal data combined with multispectral data. Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) biweekly composite data are commonly used to classify land cover over large regions. Selecting a subset of these biweekly composite periods may be required to reduce the complexity and cost of land cover mapping. The objective of our research was to evaluate the effect of reducing the number of composite periods and altering the spacing of those composite periods on classification accuracy. Because inter-annual variability can have a major impact on classification results, 5 years of AVHRR data were evaluated. AVHRR biweekly composite images for spectral channels 1-4 (visible, near-infrared and two thermal bands) covering the entire growing season were used to classify 14 cover types over the entire state of Colorado for each of five different years. A supervised classification method was applied to maintain consistent procedures for each case tested. Results indicate that the number of composite periods can be halved-reduced from 14 composite dates to seven composite dates-without significantly reducing overall classification accuracy (80.4% Kappa accuracy for the 14-composite data-set as compared to 80.0% for a seven-composite dataset). At least seven composite periods were required to ensure the classification accuracy was not affected by inter-annual variability due to climate fluctuations. Concentrating more composites near the beginning and end of the growing season, as compared to using evenly spaced time periods, consistently produced slightly higher classification values over the 5 years tested (average Kappa) of 80.3% for the heavy early/late case as compared to 79.0% for the alternate dataset case).

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

Population estimates of the Endangered Hawaiʻi ʻĀkepa (Loxops coccineus) in different habitats on windward Mauna Loa

Endangered Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas ( Loxops coccineus ) are endemic to Hawai‘i island, where they occur in five spatially distinct populations. Data concerning the status and population trends of these unique Hawaiian honeycreepers are crucial for assessing the effectiveness of recovery and management actions. In 2016, we used point‐transect distance sampling to estimate the abundance of Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas in portions of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) and the Kaʻū Forest Reserve (KFR) on Mauna Loa volcano. We then compiled the survey data from four other populations to provide a global population estimate. In our HAVO and KFR study area, we mapped habitat classes to determine the population densities in each habitat. Densities were highest (1.03 birds/ha) in open‐canopy montane ʻōhiʻa ( Metrosideros polymorpha ) woodland. In contrast, densities of the largest ʻĀkepa population on Mauna Kea volcano were highest in closed‐canopy ʻōhiʻa and koa ( Acacia koa ) forest where the species is dependent on nest cavities in tall (> 15 m), large (> 50‐cm diameter at breast height) trees. We surveyed potential nesting habitat in HAVO and KFR and found only one cavity in the short‐stature montane ʻōhiʻa woodland and five cavities in the tall‐stature forest. Differences in densities between the Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa populations suggest that Hawai‘i ʻĀkepas may exhibit different foraging and nesting behaviors in the two habitats. The estimated overall population density in the HAVO and KFR study area was 0.52 birds/ha, which equates to 3663 (95% CI 1725–6961) birds in their 11,377‐ha population range. We calculated a global population of 16,428 (95% CI 10,065–25,198) birds, which is similar to an estimate of 13,892 (95% CI 10,315–17,469) birds made in 1986. Our results suggest that populations are stable to increasing in the two largest populations, but the three other populations are smaller (range = 77–1443 birds) and trends for those populations are unknown.

Hawai'i↗

A media-based assessment of damage and ground motions from the January 26th, 2001 M 7.6 Bhuj, India earthquake

We compiled available news and internet accounts of damage and other effects from the 26th January, 2001, Bhuj earthquake, and interpreted them to obtain modified Mercalli intensities at over 200 locations throughout the Indian subcontinent. These values are used to map the intensity distribution using a simple mathematical interpolation method. The maps reveal several interesting features. Within the Kachchh region, the most heavily damaged villages are concentrated towards the western edge of the inferred fault, consistent with western directivity. Significant sediment-induced amplification is also suggested at a number of locations around the Gulf of Kachchh to the south of the epicenter. Away from the Kachchh region intensities were clearly amplified significantly in areas that are along rivers, within deltas, or on coastal alluvium such as mud flats and salt pans. In addition we use fault rupture parameters inferred from teleseismic data to predict shaking intensity at distances of 0-1000 km. We then convert the predicted hard rock ground motion parameters to MMI using a relationship (derived from internet-based intensity surveys) that assigns MMI based on the average effects in a region. The predicted MMIs are typically lower by 1-2 units than those estimated from news accounts. This discrepancy is generally consistent with the expected effect of sediment response, but it could also reflect other factors such as a tendency for media accounts to focus on the most dramatic damage, rather than the average effects. Our modeling results also suggest, however, that the Bhuj earthquake generated more high-frequency shaking than is expected for earthquakes of similar magnitude in California, and may therefore have been especially damaging.

Bhuj↗

Precipitation zones of west-central Nevada

Whether Nevada can sustain its fast rate of growth depends in part on accurately quantifying the amount of water that is available, including precipitation. The Precipitation-Zone Method (PZM) is a way of estimating mean annual precipitation at any point. The PZM was developed using data from west-central Nevada and northeastern California, but preliminary analysis indicates it can be applied to the entire state. Patterns in the spatial distribution of precipitation were identified by mapping station locations and plotting 1971-2000 precipitation normals versus station elevation. Precipitation zones are large areas where precipitation is linearly related to elevation. Four precipitation zones with different linear relations were delineated; these zones cover much of west-central Nevada. Regression equations with adjusted R2 values of 0.89 to 0.95 were developed for each zone. All regression equations estimate similar precipitation rates at 4,000 feet, but the slopes of the regression equations become progressively shallower to the south. A geographic information system, 30-meter digital elevation model, and the regression equations were used to estimate the distribution and volumes of precipitation in each zone and in hydrographic areas of the Walker River Basin. Comparison between the PZM and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) indicate PRISM estimates are linearly related to elevation at low elevations in each zone, but PRISM estimates become non-linear at high elevations and are up to 2.5 times greater than the normals. However, PRISM under-estimates more than it over-estimates precipitation compared to the PZM. The PZM estimated the same or larger volumes of precipitation compared to PRISM in three of the zones, and the larger volumes mostly were from areas that receive greater than 15 inches/year of precipitation. Additional work is needed to accurately estimate mean annual precipitation throughout Nevada.

Nevada↗

RegionGrow3D: A deterministic analysis for characterizing discrete three-dimensional landslide source areas on a regional scale

Regional-scale characterization of shallow landslide hazards is important for reducing their destructive impact on society. These hazards are commonly characterized by (a) their location and likelihood using susceptibility maps, (b) landslide size and frequency using geomorphic scaling laws, and (c) the magnitude of disturbance required to cause landslides using initiation thresholds. Typically, this is accomplished through the use of inventories documenting the locations and triggering conditions of previous landslides. In the absence of comprehensive landslide inventories, physics-based slope stability models can be used to estimate landslide initiation potential and provide plausible distributions of landslide characteristics for a range of environmental and forcing conditions. However, these models are sometimes limited in their ability to capture key mechanisms tied to discrete three-dimensional (3D) landslide mechanics while possessing the computational efficiency required for broad-scale application. In this study, the RegionGrow3D (RG3D) model is developed to broadly simulate the area, volume, and location of landslides on a regional scale (≥1,000 km 2 ) using 3D, limit-equilibrium (LE)-based slope stability modeling. Furthermore, RG3D is incorporated into a susceptibility framework that quantifies landsliding uncertainty using a distribution of soil shear strengths and their associated probabilities, back-calculated from inventoried landslides using 3D LE-based landslide forensics. This framework is used to evaluate the influence of uncertainty tied to shear strength, rainfall scenarios, and antecedent soil moisture on potential landsliding and rainfall thresholds over a large region of the Oregon Coast Range, USA.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗

Habitat models to assist plant protection efforts in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA

During 2002, the National Park Service initiated a demonstration project to develop science-based law enforcement strategies for the protection of at-risk natural resources, including American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.), bloodroot (Sanguinaria canadensis L.), and black cohosh (Cimicifuga racemosa (L.) Nutt. [syn. Actaea racemosa L.]). Harvest pressure on these species is increasing because of the growing herbal remedy market. We developed habitat models for Shenandoah National Park and the northern portion of the Blue Ridge Parkway to determine the distribution of favorable habitats of these three plant species and to demonstrate the use of that information to support plant protection activities. We compiled locations for the three plant species to delineate favorable habitats with a geographic information system (GIS). We mapped potential habitat quality for each species by calculating a multivariate statistic, Mahalanobis distance, based on GIS layers that characterized the topography, land cover, and geology of the plant locations (10-m resolution). We tested model performance with an independent dataset of plant locations, which indicated a significant relationship between Mahalanobis distance values and species occurrence. We also generated null models by examining the distribution of the Mahalanobis distance values had plants been distributed randomly. For all species, the habitat models performed markedly better than their respective null models. We used our models to direct field searches to the most favorable habitats, resulting in a sizeable number of new plant locations (82 ginseng, 73 bloodroot, and 139 black cohosh locations). The odds of finding new plant locations based on the habitat models were 4.5 (black cohosh) to 12.3 (American ginseng) times greater than random searches; thus, the habitat models can be used to improve the efficiency of plant protection efforts, (e.g., marking of plants, law enforcement activities). The field searches also indicated that the level of occupancy of the most favorable habitats ranged from 49.4% for ginseng to 84.8% for black cohosh. Given the potential threats to these species from illegal harvesting, that information may serve as an important benchmark for future habitat and population assessments.

Virginia↗

Exploration and discovery in Yellowstone Lake: Results from high-resolution sonar imaging, seismic reflection profiling, and submersible studies

Discoveries from multi-beam sonar mapping and seismic reflection surveys of the northern, central, and West Thumb basins of Yellowstone Lake provide new insight into the extent of post-collapse volcanism and active hydrothermal processes occurring in a large lake environment above a large magma chamber. Yellowstone Lake has an irregular bottom covered with dozens of features directly related to hydrothermal, tectonic, volcanic, and sedimentary processes. Detailed bathymetric, seismic reflection, and magnetic evidence reveals that rhyolitic lava flows underlie much of Yellowstone Lake and exert fundamental control on lake bathymetry and localization of hydrothermal activity. Many previously unknown features have been identified and include over 250 hydrothermal vents, several very large (>500 m diameter) hydrothermal explosion craters, many small hydrothermal vent craters (∼1–200 m diameter), domed lacustrine sediments related to hydrothermal activity, elongate fissures cutting post-glacial sediments, siliceous hydrothermal spire structures, sublacustrine landslide deposits, submerged former shorelines, and a recently active graben. Sampling and observations with a submersible remotely operated vehicle confirm and extend our understanding of the identified features. Faults, fissures, hydrothermally inflated domal structures, hydrothermal explosion craters, and sublacustrine landslides constitute potentially significant geologic hazards. Toxic elements derived from hydrothermal processes also may significantly affect the Yellowstone ecosystem.

Wyoming↗

Clostridium perfringens in Long Island Sound sediments: An urban sedimentary record

Clostridium perfringens is a conservative tracer and an indicator of sewage-derived pollution in the marine environment. The distribution of Clostridium perfringens spores was measured in sediments from Long Island Sound, USA, as part of a regional study designed to: (1) map the distribution of contaminated sediments; (2) determine transport and dispersal paths; (3) identify the locations of sediment and contaminant focusing; and (4) constrain predictive models. In 1996, sediment cores were collected at 58 stations, and surface sediments were collected at 219 locations throughout the Sound. Elevated concentrations of Clostridium perfringens in the sediments indicate that sewage pollution is present throughout Long Island Sound and has persisted for more than a century. Concentrations range from undetectable amounts to 15,000 spores/g dry sediment and are above background levels in the upper 30 cm at nearly all core locations. Sediment focusing strongly impacts the accumulation of Clostridium perfringens spores. Inventories in the cores range from 28 to 70,000 spores/cm2, and elevated concentrations can extend to depths of 50 cm. The steep gradients in Clostridium perfringens profiles in muddier cores contrast with concentrations that are generally constant with depth in sandier cores. Clostridium perfringens concentrations rarely decrease in the uppermost sediment, unlike those reported for metal contaminants. Concentrations in surface sediments are highest in the western end of the Sound, very low in the eastern region, and intermediate in the central part. This pattern reflects winnowing and focusing of Clostridium perfringens spores and fine-grained sediment by the hydrodynamic regime; however, the proximity of sewage sources to the westernmost Sound locally enhances the Clostridium perfringens signals.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jer↗

On the modified Mercalli intensities and magnitudes of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes

We reexamine original felt reports from the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquakes and determine revised isoseismal maps for the three principal mainshocks. In many cases we interpret lower values than those assigned by earlier studies. In some cases the revisions result from an interpretation of original felt reports with an appreciation for site response issues. Additionally, earlier studies had assigned modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) values of V-VII to a substantial number of reports that we conclude do not describe damage commensurate with intensities this high. We investigate several approaches to contouring the MMI values using both analytical and subjective methods. For the first mainshock on 02∶15 LT December 16, 1811, our preferred contouring yields M ω7.2–7.3 using the area-moment regressions of Johnston [1996]. For the 08∶00 LT on January 23, 1812, and 03∶45 LT on February 7, 1812, mainshocks, we obtain M ω7.0 and M ω7.4–7.5, respectively. Our magnitude for the February mainshock is consistent with the established geometry of the Reelfoot fault, which all evidence suggests to have been the causative structure for this event. We note that the inference of lower magnitudes for the New Madrid events implies that site response plays a significant role in controlling seismic hazard at alluvial sites in the central and eastern United States. We also note that our results suggest that thrusting may have been the dominant mechanism of faulting associated with the 1811–1812 sequence.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee↗

Tectonics and conductivity structures in the Southern Washington Cascades

The tectonic setting of the southern Washington Cascades has been studied with the aid of magnetotelluric (MT) and other geophysical data. The main feature of interest in the geophysical data is a broad high-conductivity anomaly mapped with MT and geomagnetic variation (GMV) data. This anomaly is located roughly within the triangle formed by the volcanoes Mount Rainier, Mount St. Helens, and Mount Adams but exceeds beyond Mount Rainier to the northwest. We interpret the cause of the anomaly to be conductive rocks with resistivities of 1–4 ohm m and thicknesses possibly greater than 15 km. These conductive rocks are found 2–8 km beneath the overlying less conductive volcanic and sedimentary rocks at the surface. Two aeromagnetic lows follow the trend of the conductivity anomaly, and linear belts of strike-slip seismicity are coincident with both these magnetic lows. One of the aeromagnetic lows is coincident with the western margin of the conductivity anomaly. The geophysical data appear to outline a suture zone of probable Eocene age caused by accretion of a large seamount complex (Siletzia) and that may contain large thicknesses of compressed forearc basin and accretionary prism sedimentary rocks of Cretaceous to Eocene age. Part of the shallower conductive rocks may be associated with carbonaceous continental and transitional marine sedimentary rocks of the Puget Group. The contact between the hypothesized compressed basin and the accreted terranes to the west may localize the release of shear stresses in this region of oblique subduction. Several possible explanations for the conductivity anomaly are considered in addition to the compressed basin hypothesis.

Washington↗

Conserving habitat for migratory ungulates: How wide is a migration corridor?

Conserving migratory ungulates relies on the analysis of GPS collar data and associated maps of migration corridors to inform management and policy actions. Current methods for identifying migratory corridors use complex statistical models designed to account for movement uncertainty rather than estimating the amount of space required by animals to migrate. Furthermore, such methods can complicate conservation efforts by producing highly variable corridor widths and non-contiguous corridors that do not fully connect seasonal ranges. To remedy, we propose an intuitive line buffer approach for delineating individual migration corridors that is simple to implement and focuses on the functional corridor widths needed by migratory ungulates. By buffering a line that connects successive GPS locations, we can delineate individual migration corridors with consistent widths that are robust to variable parameters (GPS fix rate, travel speed, tortuosity) and provide contiguous connection between seasonal ranges. Using a combination of expert knowledge, simulation and 10-min GPS collar data collected from mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ), we suggest 400–600 m are reasonable estimates of functional migration corridor widths for individuals of those species. Synthesis and applications . Our line buffer approach is intended to simplify migration corridor delineation, improve transparency and encourage a broader discussion of functional corridor widths. These considerations help advance efforts to conserve habitat within migration corridors and prioritize conservation efforts within a single corridor or across multiple corridors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

Morphology and processes associated with the accumulation of the fine-grained sediment deposit on the southern New England shelf

A 13,000 km 2 area of the southern New England Continental Shelf which is covered by anomalously fine-grained sediment has been surveyed by means of high-resolution, seismic-reflection and side-scan sonar techniques to map its morphology and structure, and a near-bottom instrument system contributed to understanding present activity of the deposit. Seismic-reflection profiles show that the fine-grained deposit, which is as much as 13 m thick, has accumulated during the last transgression because it rests on a reflector that is geomorphically similar to and continuous with the Holocene transgressive sand sheet still exposed on the shelf to the west. The ridge and swale topography comprising the sand sheet on the shelf off New Jersey and Long Island are relict in origin as these same features are found buried under the fine sediment deposit. Southwestward migrating megaripples observed on the sonographs in the eastern part of the deposit are evidence that sediment is still actively accumulating in this area. In the western part of the deposit, where surface sediment is composed of silt plus clay, evidence of present sediment mobility consists of changes in the near-bottom, suspended-matter concentrations primarily associated with storms. Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank are thought to be the sources for the fine-textured sediment. Storms and strong tidal currents in these shoal areas may still erode available fine-grained material, which then is transported westward by the mean drift to the southern New England Shelf, where a comparatively tranquil environment permits deposition of the fine material.

Journal of Sedimentary Petrology↗

A two-stage step-wise framework for fast optimization of well placement in coalbed methane reservoirs

Coalbed methane (CBM) has emerged as a clean energy resource in the global energy mix, especially in countries such as Australia, China, India and the USA. The economical and successful development of CBM requires a thorough evaluation and optimization of well placement prior to field-scale exploitation. This paper presents a two-stage, step-wise optimization framework to obtain the optimal placement of wells for large-scale development of CBM reservoirs. In the first stage, an optimal uniform well pattern is obtained by optimizing well pattern description parameters with the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Subsequently, the location and status (active/inactive) of each well are perturbed and optimized within the patterns through the integration of the generalized pattern search (GPS) algorithm and a quality map (QM) representing the production potential. This framework was tested in a synthetic anthracite CBM reservoir in the Qinshui basin (with high gas content and low permeability) and a real field high volatile bituminous reservoir in the Illinois basin (with low gas content and high permeability). The results show that: (i) significant variations in the net present value (NPV) exist with respect to different uniform well patterns (even for cases where the total number of wells are identical), the optima of which can be efficiently determined by the PSO within 100 numerical simulation runs; (ii) the optimization of well perturbations by the GPS results in a more noticeable improvement in NPVs for the synthetic (12.3%) than for the real field model (4.6%); (iii) for the low permeable synthetic model with narrow optimal well spacings (320 m × 200 m), the contribution of the optimization of well perturbation to the NPV increment is heavily dependent on the uniform well placement solution; (iv) for the high permeable real field model with large optimal well spacings (1300 m × 1300 m), the initial uniform well placement has a very minor effect on the subsequent well perturbation solutions in terms of NPV; (v) the proposed framework significantly outperforms the conventional well-by-well concatenation procedure in terms of computational efficiency, robustness and optimal criteria set for production potential.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Geophysical constraints on Washington convergent margin structure

Gravity and magnetic maps of western Washington reveal the lateral structure and fabric of the Washington Coast Range, Puget Basin, and southern Washington Cascade Range. The magnetic and gravity maps show large amplitude positive anomalies associated with the shallow but largely buried section of Washington Coast Range mafic rocks which are separated by negative anomalies over deep sedimentary basins. The positive anomalies indicate that the Coast Range mafic basement extends farther east than previously thought, at least as far east as the longitude of Seattle. Linear and steep gravity and magnetic gradients indicate many unmapped, often buried faults in the Washington Coast Range Province. Magnetic highs are also associated with mapped batholiths in the Cascade arc. Several magnetic highs observed east of the Coast Range rocks and west of these batholiths may be associated with buried Tertiary plutons or ophiolites. Two-dimensional gravity and magnetic modeling constrained with geological and other geophysical data indicate that the Coast Range Province rocks are about 1 km thick at the coast, thickening to as much as 30 km near their postulated eastern edge. A maximum boundary on the average density of the upper 15–20 km of the rocks that compose the Coast Range Province of 2920 kg/m 3 was established by the modeling, suggesting a composition largely of basalt and gabbro with little interbedded sediments. Under these rocks may be mantle or a subduction complex composed of dense mafic, ultramafic, and sedimentary rocks like that proposed to underlie Vancouver Island. Previous gravity models of the Washington margin include lower densities for the proposed subduction complex than for Vancouver Island, suggesting a lower component of mafic and ultramafic rocks than the rocks underlying Vancouver Island. However, my Washington model requires that the proposed subduction complex be more dense than the trench sediments and, therefore, that material denser than sediments be incorporated within it. The absence of continental mantle and the modeled wedge shape of the Coast Range Province upper crust suggest that erosion of the bottom of the overriding plate by subduction processes may have occurred.

Washington↗

Consideration of vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise assessments: Mobile Bay, Alabama case study

The accuracy with which coastal topography has been mapped directly affects the reliability and usefulness of elevationbased sea-level rise vulnerability assessments. Recent research has shown that the qualities of the elevation data must be well understood to properly model potential impacts. The cumulative vertical uncertainty has contributions from elevation data error, water level data uncertainties, and vertical datum and transformation uncertainties. The concepts of minimum sealevel rise increment and minimum planning timeline, important parameters for an elevation-based sea-level rise assessment, are used in recognition of the inherent vertical uncertainty of the underlying data. These concepts were applied to conduct a sea-level rise vulnerability assessment of the Mobile Bay, Alabama, region based on high-quality lidar-derived elevation data. The results that detail the area and associated resources (land cover, population, and infrastructure) vulnerable to a 1.18-m sea-level rise by the year 2100 are reported as a range of values (at the 95% confidence level) to account for the vertical uncertainty in the base data. Examination of the tabulated statistics about land cover, population, and infrastructure in the minimum and maximum vulnerable areas shows that these resources are not uniformly distributed throughout the overall vulnerable zone. The methods demonstrated in the Mobile Bay analysis provide an example of how to consider and properly account for vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise vulnerability assessments, and the advantages of doing so.

Alabama↗

Mapping and interpretation of Sinlap crater on Titan using Cassini VIMS and RADAR data

Only a few impact craters have been unambiguously detected on Titan by the Cassini-Huygens mission. Among these, Sinlap is the only one that has been observed both by the RADAR and VIMS instruments. This paper describes observations at centimeter and infrared wavelengths which provide complementary information about the composition, topography, and surface roughness. Several units appear in VIMS false color composites of band ratios in the Sinlap area, suggesting compositional heterogeneities. A bright pixel possibly related to a central peak does not show significant spectral variations, indicating either that the impact site was vertically homogeneous, or that this area has been recovered by homogeneous deposits. Both VIMS ratio images and dielectric constant measurements suggest the presence of an area enriched in water ice around the main ejecta blanket. Since the Ku-band SAR may see subsurface structures at the meter scale, the difference between infrared and SAR observations can be explained by the presence of a thin layer transparent to the radar. An analogy with terrestrial craters in Libya supports this interpretation. Finally, a tentative model describes the geological history of this area prior, during, and after the impact. It involves mainly the creation of ballistic ejecta and an expanding plume of vapor triggered by the impact, followed by the redeposition of icy spherules recondensed from this vapor plume blown downwind. Subsequent evolution is then driven by erosional processes and aeolian deposition. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Mapping landslide susceptibility over large regions with limited data

Landslide susceptibility maps indicate the spatial distribution of landslide likelihood. Modeling susceptibility over large or diverse terrains remains a challenge due to the sparsity of landslide data (mapped extent of known landslides) and the variability in triggering conditions. Several different data sampling strategies of landslide locations used to train a susceptibility model are used to mitigate this challenge. However, to our knowledge, no study has systematically evaluated how different sampling strategies alter a model's predictor effects (i.e., how a predictor value influences the susceptibility output) critical to explaining differences in model outputs. Here, we introduce a statistical framework that examines the variation in predictor effects and the model accuracy (measured using receiver operator characteristics) to highlight why certain sampling strategies are more effective than others. Specifically, we apply our framework to an array of logistic regression models trained on landslide inventories collected at sub-regional scales over four terrains across the United States. Results show significant variations in predictor effects depending on the inventory used to train the models. The inconsistent predictor effects cause low accuracies when testing models on inventories outside the domain of the training data. Grouping test and training sets according to physiographic and ecological characteristics, which are thought to share similar triggering mechanisms, does not improve model accuracy. We also show that using limited landslide data distributed uniformly over the entire modeling domain is better than using dense but spatially isolated data to train a model for applications over large regions.

California, Kentucky, North Carolina, West Virgini↗