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U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy—A framework for understanding and responding to global change

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking. Since the passage of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the USGS has made substantial scientific contributions to understanding the interactive living and nonliving components of the Earth system. USGS natural science activities have led to fundamental advances in observing and understanding climate and land-cover change and the effects these changes have on ecosystems, natural-resource availability, and societal sustainability. Most of these major advances were pursued in partnership with other organizations within and outside the Department of the Interior. The inherent value of partnerships with other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies and natural-resource managers is emphasized in all aspects of the planning and implementation of this Science Strategy for the coming decade. Over the next 10 years, the USGS will make substantial contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change. The USGS will work with science partners, decisionmakers, and resource managers at local to international levels (including Native American tribes) to improve understanding of past and present change; develop relevant forecasts; and identify those lands, resources, and communities most vulnerable to global change processes. Science will play an essential role in helping communities and land and resource managers understand local to global implications, anticipate effects, prepare for changes, and reduce the risks associated with decisionmaking in a changing environment. USGS partners and stakeholders will benefit from the data, predictive models, and decision-support products and services resulting from the implementation of this strategy. This Science Strategy recognizes core USGS strengths that are applied to key societal problems. It establishes seven goals for USGS global change science and strategic actions that may be implemented in the short term (1–5 years) and the longer term (5–10 years) to improve our understanding of the following areas of inquiry: Rates, causes, and impacts of past global changes; The global carbon cycle; Biogeochemical cycles and their coupled interactions; Land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences; Droughts, floods, and water availability under changing land-use and climatic conditions; Coastal response to sea-level rise, climatic change, and human development; and Biological responses to global change. In addition to the seven thematic goals, we address the central role of monitoring in accordance with the USGS Science Strategy recommendation that global change research should rely on existing “…decades of observational data and long-term records to interpret consequences of climate variability and change to the Nation’s biological populations, ecosystems, and land and water resources” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007, p. 19). We also briefly describe specific needs and opportunities for coordinating USGS global change science among USGS Mission Areas and address the need for a comprehensive and sustained communications strategy.

Circular↗

Historical methane hydrate project review

In 1995, U.S. Geological Survey made the first systematic assessment of the volume of natural gas stored in the hydrate accumulations of the United States. That study, along with numerous other studies, has shown that the amount of gas stored as methane hydrates in the world greatly exceeds the volume of known conventional gas resources. However, gas hydrates represent both a scientific and technical challenge and much remains to be learned about their characteristics and occurrence in nature. Methane hydrate research in recent years has mostly focused on: (1) documenting the geologic parameters that control the occurrence and stability of gas hydrates in nature, (2) assessing the volume of natural gas stored within various gas hydrate accumulations, (3) analyzing the production response and characteristics of methane hydrates, (4) identifying and predicting natural and induced environmental and climate impacts of natural gas hydrates, and (5) analyzing the effects of methane hydrate on drilling safety. Methane hydrates are naturally occurring crystalline substances composed of water and gas, in which a solid water-­‐lattice holds gas molecules in a cage-­‐like structure. The gas and water becomes a solid under specific temperature and pressure conditions within the Earth, called the hydrate stability zone. Other factors that control the presence of methane hydrate in nature include the source of the gas included within the hydrates, the physical and chemical controls on the migration of gas with a sedimentary basin containing methane hydrates, the availability of the water also included in the hydrate structure, and the presence of a suitable host sediment or “reservoir”. The geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrates have become collectively known as the “methane hydrate petroleum system”, which has become the focus of numerous hydrate research programs. Recognizing the importance of methane hydrate research and the need for a coordinated effort, the U.S. Congress enacted Public Law 106-­‐193, the Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 2000. This Act called for the Secretary of Energy to begin a methane hydrate research and development program in consultation with other U.S. federal agencies. At the same time a new methane hydrate research program had been launched in Japan by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry to develop plans for a methane hydrate exploratory drilling project in the Nankai Trough. Since this early start we have seen other countries including India, China, Canada, and the Republic of Korea establish large gas hydrate research and development programs. These national led efforts have also included the investment in a long list of important scientific research drilling expeditions and production test studies that have provided a wealth of information on the occurrence of methane hydrate in nature. The most notable expeditions and projects have including the following: -­‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 164 (1995) -­‐Japan Nankai Trough Project (1999-­‐2000) -­‐Ocean Drilling Program Leg 204 (2004) -­‐Japan Tokai-­‐oki to Kumano-­‐nada Project (2004) -­‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg I (2005) -­‐Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 311 (2005) -­‐Malaysia Gumusut-­‐Kakap Project (2006) -­‐India NGHP Expedition 01 (2006) -­‐China GMGS Expedition 01 (2007) -­‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 01 (2007) -­‐Gulf of Mexico JIP Leg II (2009) -­‐Republic of Korea UBGH Expedition 02 (2010) -­‐MH-­‐21 Nankai Trough Pre-­‐Production Expedition (2012-­‐2013) -­‐Mallik Gas Hydrate Testing Projects (1998/2002/2007-­‐2008) -­‐Alaska Mount Elbert Stratigraphic Test Well (2007) -­‐Alaska Iġnik Sikumi Methane Hydrate Production Test Well (2011-­‐2012) Research coring and seismic programs carried out by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP), starting with the ODP Leg 164 drilling of the Blake Ridge in the Atlantic Ocean in 1995, have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the geologic controls on the formation, occurrence, and stability of gas hydrates in marine environments. For the most part methane hydrate research expeditions carried out by the ODP and IODP provided the foundation for our scientific understanding of gas hydrates. The methane hydrate research efforts under ODP-­‐IODP have mostly dealt with the assessment of the geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrate, with a specific goal to study the role methane hydrates may play in the global carbon cycle. Over the last 10 years, national led methane hydrate research programs, along with industry interest have led to the development and execution of major methane hydrate production field test programs. Two of the most important production field testing programs have been conducted at the Mallik site in the Mackenzie River Delta of Canada and in the Eileen methane hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of Alaska. Most recently we have also seen the completion of the world’s first marine methane hydrate production test in the Nankai Trough in the offshore of Japan. Industry interest in gas hydrates has also included important projects that have dealt with the assessment of geologic hazards associated with the presence of hydrates. The scientific drilling and associated coring, logging, and borehole monitoring technologies developed in the long list of methane hydrate related field studies are one of the most important developments and contributions associated with methane hydrate research and development activities. Methane hydrate drilling has been conducted from advanced scientific drilling platforms like the JOIDES Resolution and the D/V Chikyu, which feature highly advanced integrated core laboratories and borehole logging capabilities. Hydrate research drilling has also included the use of a wide array of industry, geotechnical and multi-­‐service ships. All of which have been effectively used to collect invaluable geologic and engineering data on the occurrence of methane hydrates throughout the world. Technologies designed specifically for the collection and analysis of undisturbed methane hydrate samples have included the development of a host of pressure core systems and associated specialty laboratory apparatus. The study and use of both wireline conveyed and logging-­‐while-­‐drilling technologies have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the in-­‐situ nature of hydrate-­‐bearing sediments. Recent developments in borehole instrumentation specifically designed to monitor changes associated with hydrates in nature through time or to evaluate the response of hydrate accumulations to production have also contributed greatly to our understanding of the complex nature and evolution of methane hydrate systems. Our understanding of how methane hydrates occur and behave in nature is still growing and evolving – we do not yet know if methane hydrates can be economically produced, nor do we know fully the role of hydrates as an agent of climate change or as a geologic hazard. But it is known for certain that scientific drilling has contributed greatly to our understanding of hydrates in nature and will continue to be a critical source of the information to advance our understanding of methane hydrates.

Report↗

A multi-indicator framework for mapping cultural ecosystem services: The case of freshwater recreational fishing

Despite recent interest, ecosystem services are not yet fully incorporated into private and public decisions about natural resource management. Cultural ecosystem services (CES) are among the most challenging of services to include because they comprise complex ecological and social properties and processes that make them difficult to measure, map or monetize. Like others, CES are vulnerable to landscape changes and unsustainable use. To date, the sustainability of services has not been adequately addressed and few studies have considered measures of service capacity and demand simultaneously. To facilitate sustainability assessments and management of CES, our study objectives were to (1) develop a spatially explicit framework for mapping the capacity of ecosystems to provide freshwater recreational fishing, an important cultural service, (2) map societal demand for freshwater recreational fishing based on license data and identify areas of potential overuse, and (3) demonstrate how maps of relative capacity and relative demand could be interfaced to estimate sustainability of a CES. We mapped freshwater recreational fishing capacity at the 12-digit hydrologic unit-scale in North Carolina and Virginia using a multi-indicator service framework incorporating biophysical and social landscape metrics and mapped demand based on fishing license data. Mapping of capacity revealed a gradual decrease in capacity eastward from the mountains to the coastal plain and that fishing demand was greatest in urban areas. When comparing standardized relative measures of capacity and demand for freshwater recreational fishing, we found that ranks of capacity exceeded ranks of demand in most hydrologic units, except in 17% of North Carolina and 5% of Virginia. Our GIS-based approach to view freshwater recreational fishing through an ecosystem service lens will enable scientists and managers to examine (1) biophysical and social factors that foster or diminish cultural ecosystem services delivery, (2) demand for cultural ecosystem services relative to their capacity, and (3) ecological pressures like potential overuse that affect service sustainability. Ultimately, we expect such analyses to inform decision-making for freshwater recreational fisheries and other cultural ecosystem services.

Ecological Indicators↗

Evidence for marine-driven, cyclical fluctuations in burrow-nesting seabird habitat on the Oregon Coast

Seabirds are among the most threatened birds globally, with the loss or deterioration of coastal breeding habitats posing a severe threat. Natural and anthropogenic disturbances substantially influence coastal ecosystems through erosion and vegetation loss, altering habitat for the wildlife species that depend on them. In addition to these disturbances, oceanographic processes may play an important role in shaping the vegetation at breeding habitats; however, there is limited information on how vegetative conditions for burrow nesting seabirds have changed over time, and whether these changes are related to specific oceanographic or climatic factors. The Oregon Coast National Wildlife Refuge Complex, USA (NWRC) is home to a diverse suite of 1.3 million nesting seabirds from 14 species, which provide valuable ecological, economic, and cultural services, including nutrient transfer to terrestrial habitats and ecotourism for local communities. Over the last 30 years, populations of several burrow nesting seabird species including tufted puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) and rhinoceros auklet ( Cerorhinca monocerata ), which breed on offshore islands, have sharply declined along the Oregon Coast. To better understand the potential factors driving these declines, we conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of an aspect of burrow nesting seabird habitat, vegetation cover, within the Oregon Coast NWRC. Specifically, we quantified vegetative cover on 16 islands from 1992 to 2022 using a combination of empirical data, historical aerial photography (1992–2005), and aerial photography from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (2005–2022). Results showed cyclical fluctuations in vegetation cover coast-wide, which were closely related to large scale oceanographic oscillations. Specifically, vegetation cover was negatively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation and positively correlated with the spring El Nino Southern Oscillation. We did not directly compare seabird population trends to vegetation trends; however, quantifying these long-term changes in vegetation at breeding habitats can contribute to our comprehensive understanding of the myriad factors influencing seabird population dynamics and conservation.

Oregon↗

Oyster reef restoration supports increased nekton biomass and potential commercial fishery value

Across the globe, discussions centered on the value of nature drive many conservation and restoration decisions. As a result, justification for management activities increasingly asks for two lines of evidence: (1) biological proof of augmented ecosystem function or service, and (2) monetary valuation of these services. For oyster reefs, which have seen significant global declines and increasing restoration work, the need to provide both biological and monetary evidence of reef services on a local-level has become more critical in a time of declining resources. Here, we quantified species biomass and potential commercial value of nekton collected from restored oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) reefs in coastal Louisiana over a 3-year period, providing multiple snapshots of biomass support over time. Overall, and with little change over time, fish and invertebrate biomass is 212% greater at restored oyster reefs than mud-bottom, or 0.12 kg m −2 . The additional biomass of commercial species is equivalent to an increase of local fisheries value by 226%, or $0.09 m −2 . Understanding the ecosystem value of restoration projects, and how they interact with regional management priorities, is critical to inform local decision-making and provide testable predictions. Quantitative estimates of potential commercial fisheries enhancement by oyster reef restoration such as this one can be used directly by local managers to determine the expected return on investment.

Louisiana↗

Ground-water resources and geology of Waukesha County, Wisconsin

Good-quality water is available from the sand-and-gravel, Niagara, and sandstone aquifers in Waukesha County, Wis. As much as 15 gallons per minute (0.95 litres per second) can be obtained from wells almost everywhere in the county. Several hundred gallons per minute are available from aquifers in the glacial drift that fill bedrock valleys to thicknesses of 300 feet (91 metres) or more. Estimated well yields from much of the surficial outwash in western Waukesha County exceed 500 gallons per minute (31 litres per second). Estimated well yields from most of the Niagara aquifer, a dolomite as much as 325 feet (99 metres) thick in the eastern two-thirds of the county, exceed 50 gallons per minute (3.2 litres per second). The sandstone aquifer underlies the entire county and ranges in thickness from about 400 feet (120 metres) in the northwest corner to about 2,400 feet (730 metres) in the southeast corner. This aquifer yields more than 1,000 gallons per minute (63 litres per second) to wells over most of the county and is the principal source for municipal and subdivision water. Ground water in Waukesha County is of good quality and is suitable for most uses. Most of the water is a calcium magnesium bicarbonate type, is very hard [more than 180 mg/l (milligrams per litre) hardness], and requires softening for some uses. The ground water locally contains iron and manganese concentrations that exceed the limits (0.3 and 0.05 mg/l, respectively) recommended by the U.S. Public Health Service (1962, p. 7). Water high in sulfate and dissolved solids (saline water) is present locally in the Niagara and sandstone aquifers. Water from one well contained excessive nitrate (more than 45 mg/l). With one exception, wells sampled at irregular intervals indicated no significant changes in their chemical characteristics with time. About 24.3 million gallons per day (1.06 cubic metres per second) of ground water was pumped in the county in 1970. Sixty-two percent was withdrawn from the sandstone aquifer. More than one-half of the latter amount was for domestic use, and more than one-third was for industrial and commercial uses.

Wisconsin↗

Rigorously valuing the role of U.S. coral reefs in coastal hazard risk reduction

The degradation of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, raises risks by increasing the exposure of coastal communities to flooding hazards. The protective services of these natural defenses are not assessed in the same rigorous economic terms as artificial defenses, such as seawalls, and therefore often are not considered in decision making. Here we combine engineering, ecologic, geospatial, social, and economic tools to provide a rigorous valuation of the coastal protection benefits of all U.S. coral reefs in the States of Hawaiʻi and Florida, the territories of Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. We follow risk-based valuation approaches to map flood zones at 10-square-meter resolution along all 3,100+ kilometers of U.S. reef-lined shorelines for different storm probabilities to account for the effect of coral reefs in reducing coastal flooding. We quantify the coastal flood risk reduction benefits provided by coral reefs across storm return intervals using the latest information from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Bureau of Economic Analysis to identify their annual expected benefits, a measure of the annual protection provided by coral reefs. Based on these results, the annual protection provided by U.S. coral reefs is estimated in: avoided flooding to more than 18,180 people; avoided direct flood damages of more than \$825 million to more than 5,694 buildings; avoided flooding to more than 33 critical infrastructure facilities, including essential facilities, utility systems, and transportation systems; and avoided indirect damages of more than \$699 million in economic activity of individuals and more than \$272 million in avoided business interruption annually. Thus, the annual value of flood risk reduction provided by U.S. coral reefs is more than 18,000 lives and \$1.805 billion in 2010 U.S. dollars. These data provide stakeholders and decision makers with spatially explicit, rigorous valuation of how, where, and when U.S. coral reefs provide critical coastal storm flood reduction benefits. The overall goal is to ultimately reduce the risk to, and increase the resiliency of, U.S. coastal communities.

American Samoa, Commonwealth of the Northern Maria↗

Desert Tortoise translocation plan for the U.S. Department of the Army National Training Center and Fort Irwin Western Training Area

The U.S. Department of the Army proposes to commence military activity at the Fort Irwin National Training Center within the Western Training Area (WTA) and to translocate Mojave Desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ; hereafter tortoise) that will be affected to the Western Training Area Translocation Site (WTATS). This desert tortoise translocation plan provides a timeline of activities, actions for which permits may be required, and guidelines for assessing the short-term and long-term success of this desert tortoise translocation. Importantly, the monitoring projects described are designed to document the ultimate effects of the Army's translocation action (not just inform future translocations elsewhere). Results from the translocation, corresponding monitoring, and research projects will inform future translocations throughout the Mojave Desert for expanding human development. The plan has three main objectives: (1) provide guidelines to achieve a safe, humane, and successful translocation of tortoises from the WTA, with minimal effect to resident desert tortoises at sites where translocated animals are released (recipient sites); (2) study translocated, resident, and reference animals (tortoises living near translocation areas but whose home ranges do not overlap those of translocated or resident tortoises) to learn as much as possible about the ecology, conservation, and management of the desert tortoise; and (3) define best management practices for successful translocation and provide metrics to evaluate success over multiple time scales, which we identify for the short- and long-term. The procedures to plan, implement, monitor, and study translocation of tortoises were written using terms and conditions outlined in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Opinion 2021 that described effects of the expansion of the military base boundary, as well as recommendations provided in the Desert Tortoise Recovery Plan (and 5-year review). We provide guidance on appropriate translocation timing and procedures, as well as on how tortoise ecology and habitat can best be studied to further knowledge on tortoise translocation. The plan provides analysis for landscape tortoise density and abundance estimates, suitable sites for translocation of tortoises, and short- and long-term metrics that are addressed and measured by specific monitoring and research projects that can be used to assess the success of translocation activities.

California↗

Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes ( n = 42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval = 0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities ( n = 5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

Broadening benefits and anticipating tradeoffs with a proposed ecosystem service analysis framework for the US Army Corps of Engineers

Would-be adopters of ecosystem service analysis frameworks might ask, ‘Do such frameworks improve ecosystem service provision or social benefits sufficiently to compensate for any extra effort?’ Here we explore that question by retrospectively applying an ecosystem goods and services (EGS) analysis framework to a large river restoration case study conducted by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and comparing potential time costs and outcomes of traditional versus EGS-informed planning. USACE analytic methods can have a large influence on which river and wetland restoration projects are implemented in the United States because they affect which projects or project elements are eligible for federal cost-share funding. A new framework is designed for the USACE and is primarily distinguished from current procedures by adding explicit steps to document and compare tradeoffs and complementarity among all affected EGS, rather than the subset that falls within project purposes. Further, it applies economic concepts to transform ecological performance indicators into social benefit indicators, even if changes cannot be valued. We conclude that, for large multi-partner restoration projects like our case study, using the framework provides novel information on social outcomes that could be used to enhance project design, without substantially increasing scoping costs. The primary benefits of using the framework in the case study appeared to stem from early comprehensive identification of stakeholder interests that might have prevented project delays late in the process, and improving the communication of social benefits and how tradeoffs among EGS benefits were weighed during planning.

Missouri↗

The pallid sturgeon: Scientific investigations help understand recovery needs

Understanding of the pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) has increased significantly since the species was listed as endangered over two decades ago. Since 2005, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC) have been engaged in an interdisciplinary research program in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Recovery Program, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, and numerous other State and Federal cooperators to provide managers and policy makers with the knowledge needed to evaluate recovery options. During that time, the USGS has worked collaboratively with river scientists and managers to develop methods, baseline information, and research approaches that are critical contributions to recovery success. The pallid sturgeon is endangered throughout the Missouri River because of insufficient reproduction and survival of early life stages. Primary management actions on the Missouri River designed to increase reproductive success and survival have focused on flow regime, channel morphology, and propagation. The CERC research strategies have, therefore, been designed to examine the linkages among flow regime, re-engineered channel morphology, and reproductive success and survival. Specific research objectives include the following: (1) understanding reproductive physiology of pallid sturgeon and relations to environmental conditions; (2) determining movement, habitat use, and reproductive behavior of pallid sturgeon; and (3) quantifying availability and dynamics of aquatic habitats needed by pallid sturgeon for all life stages.

Fact Sheet↗

Guidance for assessing interregional ecoystem service flows

Ecosystem services (ES) assessments commonly focus on a specific biophysical region or nation and take its geographic borders as the system boundary. Most geographical regions are, however, not closed systems but are open and telecoupled with other regions through ES imports and exports, which are mediated by fluxes of matter, energy and information. Interregional ES flows are often linked to national economies and may affect issues of national security and global equity. To date, however, methodologies for interregional ES flow assessments have been published in dispersed literature. This paper provides a three-step guidance for the assessment of four different types of interregional ES flows (traded goods, passive biophysical flows, species migration and dispersal and information flows), in order to complement national ecosystem assessments. The three steps are to (i) define the goal and scope of interregional ES flow assessments, (ii) quantify the interregional ES flows using a tiered approach and (iii) interpret results in terms of uncertainties, consequences and governance options. We compile different indicators for assessing interregional ES flows and evaluate their suitability for national ES assessments. Finally, in order to value the various outcomes of telecouplings, including their implications for human well-being, we relate the interregional ES flow indicators to the Sustainable Development Goals. We discuss how regional studies can assess a country‘s dependence and impact on "overseas" ES. This guidance towards systematic assessment of interregional ES flows provides a first step to measure and quantify externalised environmental costs and can contribute to the development of indicators to address interregional imbalances in trade, foreign policy and beyond.

Ecological Indicators↗

Final report to the Gulf Coast Joint Venture: Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern

Many bird species are of conservation concern across the Northern Gulf of Mexico from stressors such as human disturbance, predation, and habitat loss due to directional environmental change (e.g., increased sea-level rise and storm frequency and intensity, human infrastructure, changes in land use). Consequently, managers need decision-support tools that can help to answer important conservation questions for different species (e.g., which areas and how much area should be targeted by management actions to meet a particular species’ needs). The Black Skimmer ( Rynchops niger ; hereafter Skimmer) and Gull-billed Tern ( Gelochelidon nilotica ; hereafter Tern) are designated as U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Species of Conservation Concern and Gulf Coast Joint Venture (GCJV) Priority Species with nesting habitats in the USFWS Gulf Coast Biological Planning Units (BPU; Tirpak et al. 2017). They are also representative of a variety of other beach and barrier-island nesting birds whose Gulf Coast nesting habitats are threatened by directional environmental change. The Skimmer has breeding pair targets in six GCJV Initiative Areas (IA), and the Tern has breeding pair targets in five GCJV IAs. Our goal was to inform GCJV management scenarios that efficiently and simultaneously achieve both species’ targets by prioritizing sites where management actions (e.g., maintain existing habitat or change habitat, geomorphology [landmass area, landmass elevation], predator management, human and dog restrictions) could be implemented.

Final Report↗

Contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes: Science to inform management practices for protecting the health and integrity of wildlife populations from adverse effects: GLRI action plan I, focus area 1, goal 5

Executive Summary: Under Action Plan I (2010-2014) of the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), Federal and Academic partners began an investigation of the presence and distribution of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in the Great Lakes and potential impacts on fish and wildlife. The term CECs is applied to a broad range of chemicals that are currently in use but for which we currently lack good understanding of whether fish, wildlife, or humans are being exposed and/or whether negative health or environmental effects are expected if exposure occurs. Pharmaceuticals, personal care products, flame retardants, many current use pesticides, and poly- and perfluorinated chemicals are some well-known groups of CECs, but there is no definitive or comprehensive list that can be used to support the management of CECs to reduce impacts on the Great Lakes ecosystem. Four overarching goals were identified for this collaborative investigation: 1. Evaluate the sources, occurrence, and distribution of CECs across the Great Lakes Basin. 2. Examine associations between the distribution of CECs and land-use patterns. 3. Review both scientific literature and field-generated data to determine the potential for CECs to cause adverse effects on Great Lakes fish and wildlife populations. 4. Develop efficient strategies to survey and/or monitor for threats that CECs may pose in order to take effective management actions before those threats evolve into large scale impacts on Great Lakes ecosystems or the services they provide. Achievement of these goals ensures progress towards Focus Area 1: Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern from GLRI Action Plan I, Goal 5: “ The health and integrity of wildlife populations and habitat are protected from adverse chemical and biological effects associated with the presence of toxic substances in the Great Lakes Basin ”. This large-scale research effort was comprised of individual and collaborative projects from multiple federal agencies and academic institutions, involving over 85 investigators, and overseen by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 5, Great Lakes National Program Office. Partners include the United States Geological Survey, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Saint Cloud State University, the U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Key findings: 1. Contaminants of emerging concern were found throughout the monitored Great Lakes tributaries, but types and concentrations vary in association with regional land use. CECs were detected in nearly all samples collected. The type and concentration of the specific contaminants detected varied considerably among field sites and in association with land use type, such as urban, agricultural, wetland, 2 or forest. Contaminants were detected in the water column, sediment, and tissues of all species surveyed in the current work (mussels, aquatic insects, fish, and insect-eating birds). 2. There were over 20 contaminants for which CEC concentrations approached or exceeded those reported to cause toxicity in laboratory experiments. This was based on detection in water, sediments and or biota at one or more field sites. These contaminants represent compounds that warrant further investigation and monitoring with respect to potential impacts in certain areas of the Great Lakes basin. Based on the present investigation, compounds of greatest concern include: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, associated with oil-based products and combustion of organic matter; atrazine, an herbicide; dichlorvos, an insecticide; and ibuprofen and venlafaxine, both pharmaceuticals. 3. Results suggest that mixtures of CECs presently found in most Great Lakes tributary locations surveyed may elicit subtle biological effects, but likely are not, alone, causing obvious detriment to current communities of fish and wildlife. CECs detected in the Great Lakes were associated with subtle biological effects like changes in gene expression, altered circulating glucose, etc. in both wild-caught and laboratory-reared organisms. These effects were generally not indicative of reproductive failure or mortality. However, the effects may have more serious implications when combined with other sources of stress like habitat degradation, changing climate conditions, and competition with invasive species. Due to limited historical data, it is unknown whether severe CEC-related impacts have already affected aquatic communities in waterbodies that have received long-term inputs of these contaminants. Likewise, under Action Plan I, biological effects were not necessarily evaluated at the sites where CEC concentrations exceeding laboratory toxicity thresholds were detected. As a result, strategic, ongoing surveillance and monitoring of CECs is warranted. This collaborative investigation resulted in new tools, approaches, and data that can be used to inform and support the management of CECs to reduce their impacts on Great Lakes natural resources. The following products of this research effort are available through https://communities.geoplatform.gov/glri/ or by contacting the investigators (see technical chapters found in Appendices A-F): 1. Database of CEC occurrence and concentrations in US tributary streams. The database includes CEC detections in water, sediment, and fish and wildlife tissues, and represents the most comprehensive survey of CECs in the Great Lakes Region. 2. Synopses of results and key findings. Integrated summaries of results, conclusions, and management implications of the CEC research are available through reports, topical fact sheets, and presentations. 3. Technical publications: This collaborative research effort has resulted in over 50 peer-reviewed publications, agency reports, and data releases that can be of use to resource managers, the scientific community, and members of the public. 4. Innovative tools. Innovative monitoring devices, sampling equipment, conceptual frameworks, and software applications were developed over the course of this 3 research. These tools are transferable to stakeholders via internet accessibility or via specifications, instructions, and demonstration detailed in technical publications. Hypotheses to guide CECs research under Action Plan II. Findings from 2010-2014 were used to guide further research in 2015-2018 for basin-wide surveillance of CECs and for sites warranting further study of potential biological impacts of CECs. Additional surveillance included both evaluation of additional classes of contaminants and expanded lists for chemical classes shown to be of greatest concern. Mixtures of some of the most frequently detected contaminants were also tested in laboratory studies to understand whether long term exposures to multiple contaminants may result in effects not evident from uncontrolled, short-term field experiments.

Great Lakes↗

Past and predicted future effects of housing growth on open space conservation opportunity areas and habitat connectivity around National Wildlife Refuges

Context Housing growth can alter suitability of matrix habitats around protected areas, strongly affecting movements of organisms and, consequently, threatening connectivity of protected area networks. Objectives Our goal was to quantify distribution and growth of housing around the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System. This is important information for conservation planning, particularly given promotion of habitat connectivity as a climate change adaptation measure. Methods We quantified housing growth from 1940 to 2000 and projected future growth to 2030 within three distances from refuges, identifying very low housing density open space, “opportunity areas” (contiguous areas with <6.17 houses/km 2 ), both nationally and by USFWS administrative region. Additionally, we quantified number and area of habitat corridors within these opportunity areas in 2000. Results Our results indicated that the number and area of open space opportunity areas generally decreased with increasing distance from refuges and with the passage of time. Furthermore, total area in habitat corridors was much lower than in opportunity areas. In addition, the number of corridors sometimes exceeded number of opportunity areas as a result of habitat fragmentation, indicating corridors are likely vulnerable to land use change. Finally, regional differences were strong and indicated some refuges may have experienced so much housing growth already that they are effectively too isolated to adapt to climate change, while others may require extensive habitat restoration work. Conclusions Wildlife refuges are increasingly isolated by residential housing development, potentially constraining the movement of wildlife and, therefore, their ability to adapt to a changing climate.

Landscape Ecology↗

Quantifying regional ecological dynamics using agency monitoring data, ecological site descriptions, and ecological site groups

Information about what ecological conditions are likely, causes or drivers of degradation, and potential management actions to restore degraded lands may support land conservation and restoration decisions. State-and-transition models (STMs) describe persistent plant and ecological conditions that are possible (the “state”) within a given abiotic setting and drivers or actions that can cause shifts between states (the “transitions”). These primarily conceptual models are widely used to inform resource and conservation decisions. Data-driven STMs have been developed for some lands, but not at regional or national scales. Here, we demonstrate a new repeatable workflow for developing data-driven STMs in the United States (US). The approach leverages predictive maps of Ecological Site Groups (ESGs), extensive field-based Federal monitoring databases, information from Ecological Site Description (ESD) STMs, soil erosion models, remotely sensed productivity, and other available spatial information (fire, land protection, and drought) to provide context and descriptions of the data-driven states, including likely drivers of transitions. Results of this workflow applied to one dryland ESG in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the southwestern US suggest that an Invaded state (16% of 1352 plots) and some occurrences of a Grassland state (30% of plots) are in a degraded or at-risk condition with reduced ecosystem services. The most common drivers of state transitions in the associated ESDs ( n = 26) are related to livestock grazing and fire. The Invaded state in the ESG has evidence of degraded habitat quality and accelerated run-off while the Grassland state occurrences show reduced richness, productivity, and elevated erosion risk by wind. Areas subject to wildfire and with lower protection status had greater probability of Invaded state occurrence, generally supporting drivers in ESDs. The workflow presented here can serve as a template for describing ecological dynamics at regional scales, and support prioritization of land for conservation and climate adaptation activities.

Rangeland Ecology & Management↗

U.S. Geological Survey—Energy and wildlife research annual report for 2017

Introduction Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems provide valuable services to humans and are a source of clean water, energy, raw materials, and productive soils. The Nation’s food supply is more secure because of wildlife. For example, native pollinators enhance agricultural crops, and insect-eating bats provide pest control services worth billions of dollars to farmers annually. Fish and wildlife are also vital to a vibrant outdoor recreation and tourism industry. Recreational activities, such as hunting, shooting, boating, and angling, generated \$1.1 billion in excise taxes paid to State wildlife agencies in 2017. National parks, wildlife refuges, and monuments accounted for $35 billion in economic output and 318,000 jobs nationwide in 2016. Additional economic benefits are generated from the use and enjoyment of wildlife in State-owned lands and waters. Although the United States is rich in natural resources, human activity continues to place new pressures on fish and wildlife and the habitats they rely on. The United States became the world’s top producer of petroleum and natural gas products in 2012, surpassing Russia’s natural gas production levels in 2009 and Saudi Arabia’s petroleum production in 2013. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that the demand for liquid fuel, natural gas, and renewable energy will show strong growth in the next 20 years. Wind energy has demonstrated consistent growth since 2007 with now more than 53,000 wind turbines contributing to power grids in 41 States, Guam, and Puerto Rico. Solar energy has seen rapid growth since 2013 and made up nearly one-third of the total electricity generation additions in 2016. Yet as our Nation works to advance energy security and sustain wildlife, some conflicts have surfaced. Impacts of an expanding energy infrastructure include fragmentation and loss of habitat as well as mortality of birds, bats, fish, and other animals from interactions with energy generation facilities. Because energy development can often occur in wildlife habitats, ecological science can help guide project siting and operational decisions to areas that present the lowest risk to wildlife and energy developers. To address these challenges and make the most of new opportunities, the U.S. Geological Survey is producing innovative science to develop workable solutions that can help sustain wildlife and the habitat they rely upon, while allowing informed development.

Circular↗

Web-Based Geospatial Tools to Address Hazard Mitigation, Natural Resource Management, and Other Societal Issues

Federal, State, and local government agencies in the United States face a broad range of issues on a daily basis. Among these are natural hazard mitigation, homeland security, emergency response, economic and community development, water supply, and health and safety services. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) helps decision makers address these issues by providing natural hazard assessments, information on energy, mineral, water and biological resources, maps, and other geospatial information. Increasingly, decision makers at all levels are challenged not by the lack of information, but by the absence of effective tools to synthesize the large volume of data available, and to utilize the data to frame policy options in a straightforward and understandable manner. While geographic information system (GIS) technology has been widely applied to this end, systems with the necessary analytical power have been usable only by trained operators. The USGS is addressing the need for more accessible, manageable data tools by developing a suite of Web-based geospatial applications that will incorporate USGS and cooperating partner data into the decision making process for a variety of critical issues. Examples of Web-based geospatial tools being used to address societal issues follow.

Fact Sheet↗