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The Saudi Geological Survey-U.S. Geological Survey northern Harrat Rahat project—Styles, rates, causes, and hazards of volcanism near Al Madīnah al Munawwarah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Active volcanic systems pose serious hazards to people and property including inundation and incineration by lava, blanketing by tephra (volcanic ash), exposure to noxious volcanic gases, and damage from shallow earthquakes triggered by ascending molten material (magma). To improve understanding of volcanism and associated seismicity on the western Arabia Plate, the Saudi Geological Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a multi-year investigation of the northern Harrat Rahat volcanic field adjacent to the city of Al Madīnah al Munawwarah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Project components included creation of a high-resolution digital topographic base; interpretation of eruptive history supported by detailed geologic mapping, paleomagnetism, and abundant high-precision geochronology of volcanic deposits; assessments of eruptive styles and volcanic hazards by physical volcanology; investigation of the origins of magmas in the mantle and of their differentiation in the crust revealed by chemical and isotopic petrology; gravity and magnetotelluric surveys to reveal crustal structures and to search for magma reservoirs; and regional and local seismic tomography and analyses of seismic hazards. Project results are presented in this Professional Paper as chapters written for technical scientific audiences. This initial chapter introduces the project and briefly summarizes results in plain language for readers who have more general backgrounds.

Al Madīnah al Munawwarah

Volcanic gas monitoring

Introduction As magma rises through the crust, decreasing pressure conditions allow volatiles to exsolve from the magma. These volatiles then migrate upward through the crust, where they can be stored at shallower levels or escape to the atmosphere. Rising magma also heats rock masses beneath volcanic centers, causing water in shallow aquifers and hydrothermal systems to boil and release additional gases and steam (see chapter F , this volume; Ingebritsen and Hurwitz, 2024). The chemistry and quantity of gases that reach the surface during periods of quiescence or volcanic unrest can reveal that gas-rich magma is ascending, crystallizing, or alternatively stalling, with important implications for volcanic hazard (for example, Sutton and others, 1992; Aiuppa and others, 2007, 2021; Werner and others, 2009, 2011, 2012; Moretti and others, 2013; de Moor and others, 2016; Lewicki and others, 2019; Edmonds and others, 2022; Kern and others, 2022; Kunrat and others, 2022). Most volcanoes in Alaska and the western United States are characterized by weak degassing, with one or more low-temperature fumaroles (typically near the local boiling temperature of water) and connect to a deeper and sometimes extensive hydrothermal system (for example, McGee and others, 2001; Symonds and others, 2003a, b). Hydrothermal systems will affect the chemistry of rising gases exsolved from deeper magma (Symonds and others, 2001), including sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), hydrogen chloride (HCl), and water vapor (for example, Doukas and Gerlach, 1995; Gerlach and others, 1998, 2008; Symonds and others, 2001; Werner and others, 2013). As an example, depending on factors such as temperature, pressure, and oxidation state, rising SO 2 will react with groundwater to form hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) gas, dissolved sulfate (SO 4 2− ), or elemental sulfur (Christenson, 2000; Symonds and others, 2001; Werner and others, 2008). The reaction and dissolution of SO 2 into shallow groundwater is commonly referred to as scrubbing, and can reduce the likelihood that ascending, degassing magma can be detected. Carbon dioxide, however, in addition to exsolving from magma early in the ascent process, is not easily removed by hydrothermal fluids (Lowenstern, 2001). As scrubbing and other processes take place, the SO 2 /H 2 S, CO 2 /SO 2 , and CO 2 /H 2 S ratios may change. High rates of SO 2 emission indicate that magma has moved to relatively shallow levels in the volcano and that the system has heated up enough to establish dry pathways from depth to the surface. Monitoring multiple gas species and the total output of those species is thereby useful for volcano monitoring during both periods of quiescence, to establish background degassing conditions, and during unrest, when gas geochemistry and emission rates can provide information on changing conditions, such as magma ascent. To provide context for multidisciplinary volcano forecasts, we focus on the following two key required capabilities: (1) characterizing baseline geochemistry and gas discharge from volcanoes and volcanic regions and (2) monitoring changes in gas geochemistry and discharge to inform forecasts of volcanic eruptions and their effects. Sufficient baseline data must be collected to identify and interpret anomalous degassing associated with volcanic unrest (for example, Sorey and others, 1998; Rouwet and others, 2014). Differences in volcano type, baseline degassing rates, local hydrology, and geography (for example, high versus low latitude) will result in a different baseline for each volcano. Volcanoes of any threat level that exhibit one or more degassing phenomena would ideally be monitored by techniques needed to establish baseline degassing data, with the sampling frequency of baseline data dictated by the threat level (table E1). Additional monitoring techniques become necessary during periods of unrest. In general, three of the most important techniques for gas monitoring are (1) direct sampling of fumarole, spring, and soil gases for laboratory geochemical measurements, (2) measurements of the chemical composition of the volcanic plume and emission rates of major gas species (for example, H 2 O, CO 2 , SO 2 , and H 2 S) by satellite, airborne, or ground-based techniques, and (3) measurements of diffuse emissions of CO 2 and other gases through soils. Various methods and instruments may be useful both for baseline studies and during unrest.

Scientific Investigations Report

Forecast, monitor, adapt: A multi-agency strategy to protect people from postfire debris flows

In 2020, a wildfire burned across Glenwood Canyon in Colorado, USA. A history of postfire debris flows in the region and a hazard assessment for the burn area indicated that potentially life-threatening debris flows could be triggered by rainfall within months of a wildfire. As a result, four government agencies evaluated strategies to help mitigate hazards, including the loss of human life, that may be associated with debris-flow events. After the fire, 26 large debris flows occurred in the summer of 2021 and three sediment-laden flows occurred in the summer of 2023, but there were no major injuries or fatalities reported. We found that integrating hazard assessment/ forecasting, monitoring, and adaptation scenarios was a successful strategy for reducing postfire debris-flow risks to human life (including injuries and fatalities). Weather forecasts and estimates of debris-flow triggering rainfall thresholds, likelihood, and volume were used to anticipate the timing, location, and magnitude of debris-flow events. Rainfall monitoring and detailed recordkeeping of storms that triggered debris flows were used to validate and update debris-flow warning thresholds that varied with time following the wildfire. Although the governmental agencies working in this burn area had distinct and differing agency mandates, they were able to integrate information to reduce the risk of debris-flow events to human life.

Colorado

U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program decadal science strategy, 2024–33

Executive Summary Earthquakes represent one of our Nation’s most significant and costly natural hazards, with estimated annual loses from earthquakes close to $15 billion in 2023. Over the past two centuries, 37 U.S. States have experienced an earthquake exceeding a magnitude of 5, and 50 percent of States have a significant potential for future damaging shaking; these statistics speak to the need for nationwide interest and investment in earthquake hazard characterization and risk reduction. Authorized under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Authorization Act, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) provides the scientific information, situational awareness, and knowledge necessary to reduce deaths, injuries, and economic losses from earthquakes and earthquake-induced tsunamis, landslides, and soil liquefaction. The EHP supports activities in three focused topical areas: (1) earthquake monitoring, (2) hazard assessment, and (3) applied research, using the results of each—and the coordination among them—to further support risk translation and communication in regions at risk nationwide. For earthquake monitoring, the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), a cooperative effort of USGS networks, university partner regional seismic networks, and real-time geodetic networks, collects and analyzes data on earthquakes; issues timely, reliable notifications of their occurrence and impacts; and provides data for earthquake research, hazard, and risk assessment as a foundation for building an earthquake-resilient Nation. The USGS-operated ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system is a recent addition to EHP’s ANSS infrastructure. In the realm of earthquake hazard assessment, the EHP contributes to earthquake risk mitigation strategies by developing the National Seismic Hazard Model and maps, and other related products, that describe the likelihood and potential effects of earthquakes nationwide, especially in the urban areas of highest risk. The EHP also conducts research on the causes, characteristics, and effects of earthquakes and prioritizes work that directly increases the accuracy and precision of earthquake hazards assessments, earthquake forecasts, and earthquake monitoring and situational-awareness products and that supports the Nation’s earthquake mitigation practices. Bridging the EHP’s efforts across research, hazard assessments, and earthquake monitoring is a broad and comprehensive collection of earthquake information products, including the National Seismic Hazard Model, ShakeAlert, and other products describing impact, such as ShakeMap and PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), which have been developed and integrated into EHP’s real-time monitoring systems. EHP funds external partners to carry out many important collaborative activities through an active external grants program—one of the largest in the USGS—and through cooperative agreements with other partners such as the university-operated regional seismic networks, funded as part of the ANSS. To continue its support of earthquake hazard characterization and risk reduction, the EHP aims to strengthen its foundational products and practices while positioning itself to respond to the evolving needs of the Nation and follow best practices of the scientific community. This document describes a strategy for the program to ensure it can meet these demands. The foundational priorities outlined in this strategy represent those activities that remain critical to the core functionality of the program and those that can be supported under current fiscal year 2024-level appropriations. Priorities described as aspirational are important for future growth, and to maintain the program’s position as a leading global resource in earthquake science, but would require increases in appropriated funding to be fully realized. Across the program’s portfolio of activities, several major themes have been identified as the most critical activities to advance EHP science over the coming decade. Together, these activities provide the framework necessary to integrate critical hazard characterization and risk reduction activities across the program. They provide the structure for research to advance the understanding of where, when, and why earthquakes occur and how we can use improved knowledge to drive short-term and actionable forecasts of seismic activity. They expand the usefulness of critical earthquake products and advance the sophistication of those products to keep pace with the rapidly evolving needs of an ever-expanding user base while maintaining the position of the USGS as a global leader in earthquake science. Focus on system-level science. Establish an automated earthquake-processing pipeline. Enhance the accuracy and reliability of the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system and plan for extension to other regions. Implement time-dependent earthquake forecasting. Develop physically realistic models. Expand computational capacity. This science strategy is organized into three primary sections. The first section provides an overview of the EHP and its budget, governance, and program council. Readers familiar with the program may wish to focus on the second section, which describes the core of the science strategy, including priorities across each of the EHP’s major program activities in monitoring, hazard assessment, and targeted research. The third section outlines science priorities that cut across program activities, including those involving collaborations external to the EHP.

American Samoa, Guam, Northern Marianas Islands, U

High-precision earthquake catalog for Minto Flats fault zone, central Alaska, reveals complex and conjugate faulting

The Minto Flats fault zone (MFFZ) in central Alaska is a left‐lateral strike‐slip fault system situated between the continental‐scale right‐lateral Denali and Kaltag‐Tintina faults. The MFFZ has the potential to generate magnitude 7 earthquakes, and it hosted a magnitude 6 earthquake in 1995. It has also produced exotic events, such as very‐low‐frequency earthquakes and nucleation signals. We use network‐matched filtering and relative earthquake relocation techniques to derive a detailed catalog of earthquake locations for the MFFZ. The catalog spans from August 2014 to December 2019, a time period including 13 temporary seismic stations in the region. Our results provide the most complete catalog for the MFFZ and include deeper events, clusters of shallow seismicity, and a complex and segmented fault structure not observed in the original regional catalog. We document right‐lateral strike‐slip faulting, conjugate to the main northeast‐striking left‐lateral faults of the MFFZ. Below Nenana basin, the relocated seismicity reveals northwest‐dipping left‐lateral faults, supporting the inference that deep crustal active faulting is associated with recent basin deformation.

Alaska

Reference 1D seismic velocity models for volcano monitoring and imaging: Methods, models, and applications

Seismic velocity models of the crust are an integral part of earthquake monitoring systems at volcanoes. 1D models that vary only in depth are typically used for real‐time hypocenter determination and serve as critical reference models for detailed 3D imaging studies and geomechanical modeling. Such models are usually computed using seismic tomographic methods that rely on P ‐ and S ‐wave arrival‐time picks from numerous earthquakes recorded at receivers around the volcano. Traditional linearized tomographic methods that jointly invert for source locations, velocity structure, and station corrections depend critically on having reasonable starting values for the unknown parameters, are susceptible to local misfit minima and divergence, and often do not provide adequate uncertainty information. These issues are often exacerbated by sparse seismic networks, inadequate distributions of seismicity, and/or poor data quality common at volcanoes. In contrast, modern probabilistic global search methods avoid these issues only at the cost of increased computation time. In this article, we review both approaches and present example applications and comparisons at several volcanoes in the United States, including Mount Hood (Oregon), Mount St. Helens (Washington), the Island of Hawai’i, and Mount Cleveland (Alaska). We provide guidance on the proper usage of these methods as relevant to challenges specific to volcano monitoring and imaging. Finally, we survey‐published 1D P ‐wave velocity models from around the world and use them to derive a generic stratovolcano velocity model, which serves as a useful reference model for comparison and when local velocity information is sparse.

Seismological Research Letters

Divisions of geologic time—Major chronostratigraphic and geochronologic units

Effective communication in the geosciences requires consistent uses of stratigraphic nomenclature, especially divisions of geologic time. A geologic time scale is composed of standard stratigraphic divisions based on rock sequences and is calibrated in years. Over the years, the development of new dating methods and the refinement of previous methods have stimulated revisions to geologic time scales. Advances in stratigraphy and geochronology require that any time scale be periodically updated. Therefore, Divisions of Geologic Time, which shows the major chronostratigraphic (position) and geochronologic (time) units, is intended to be a dynamic resource that will be modified to include accepted changes of unit names and boundary age estimates. This fact sheet is a modification of USGS Fact Sheet 2007-3015 by the U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Names Committee.

Fact Sheet

AAPG Energy and Minerals Division Tight Oil and Gas Committee Activities and Commodity Report for 2021-2022: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale, Gulf Coast basin, Louisiana and Mississippi

The Upper Cretaceous Tuscaloosa marine shale (TMS) potential production area encompasses 20.4 million acres across central Louisiana (LA), southern Mississippi (MS), southwestern Alabama (AL), and a small southwestern section of the Florida panhandle (Hackley et al., 2018). It remains a minor and largely undeveloped unconventional shale oil play with production from the TMS confined along the east-west LA-MS State boundary (Fig. 1). The mean undiscovered, technically recoverable resources in the TMS are estimated at 1.5 billion barrels of oil and 4.6 trillion cubic feet of gas (Hackley et al., 2018). Geochemical analyses of source rock solvent extracts and oil samples indicate that, in the play area, the TMS is the primary source of shale oil produced from the TMS as well as of accumulated oils in the underlying conventional reservoirs of the lower Tuscaloosa (Hackley et al., 2020). The API gravity of TMS oils ranges from approximately 34 to 46 degrees (Hackley et al., 2020; Croke et al., 2020).

AAPG Wiki

Analysis of aquifer framework and properties, Alvahs Lane well field, Cutchogue, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Suffolk County Water Authority, evaluated the aquifer transmissivity and storage properties at the Alvahs Lane well field north of the village of Cutchogue, New York. This analysis of aquifer properties provides the Suffolk County Water Authority with hydrogeologic information needed to develop water supplies to meet the increasing water demands of the residents of Suffolk County, New York. An aquifer test was conducted at the Alvahs Lane well field from October 18 through October 21, 2022, when a production well was pumped at 550 gallons per minute for about 24 hours, and groundwater-level drawdown and recovery were measured in two monitoring wells. The three wells are screened in a glaciofluvial aquifer under unconfined (water table) conditions. Drawdown and recovery data were analyzed with an analytical solution for partial penetration and delayed yield in an unconfined aquifer to provide estimates of the glaciofluvial aquifer properties. Inclusion of lateral aquifer boundaries was not necessary for the analysis to result in satisfactory matches with the observed water-level responses. Aquifer transmissivity was estimated at 32,000 feet squared per day. Assuming a saturated aquifer thickness of 120 feet, this result is equivalent to a horizontal hydraulic conductivity value of 270 feet per day. Specific yield was estimated at 0.15 (dimensionless). The estimated properties are consistent with those of a highly transmissive unconfined aquifer.

New York

Airborne geophysical analysis to decipher salinization for coastal Louisiana

Coastal Louisiana is known for saltwater intrusion that threatens wetlands, aquifers, and rivers. However, the extent of saltwater intrusion is not well understood. This study develops an innovative framework with airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data to map chloride concentration distributions for wetlands in the Mississippi River deltaic plain and Chenier plain as well as for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA) and Chicot aquifer. Moreover, the framework maps chloride concentrations along the Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River. Key components in the framework include the establishment of resistivity-to-chloride concentration transformation, 3D resistivity architecture building through geostatistics, and the employment of a lithologic model. The transformation functions correlate AEM resistivity data with porewater salinity measurements and groundwater and river chloride samples. The results show that AEM data reliably infers soil water chloride concentrations and correlates well with the distribution of various marsh types. AEM data reveals extensive saltwater presence at depth and near the coast, originating from salt domes and the Gulf of Mexico, respectively. The saltwater upconing pattern in the Chicot aquifer is likely due to excessive groundwater withdrawals. The AEM data also confirms a distinct tongue of saltwater intruding into the Atchafalaya Basin from the Gulf. The AEM data helps to identify faults that are obscured or eroded at the surface, which appear as leaky barriers in the subsurface where dramatic changes in chloride concentration are apparent. Finally, this study uses the AEM data to infer the presence of an extensive seawater wedge in the Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River.

Louisiana

Mapping bedrock outcrops in the Sierra Nevada Mountains (California, USA) using machine learning

Accurate, high-resolution maps of bedrock outcrops can be valuable for applications such as models of land–atmosphere interactions, mineral assessments, ecosystem mapping, and hazard mapping. The increasing availability of high-resolution imagery can be coupled with machine learning techniques to improve regional bedrock outcrop maps. In the United States, the existing 30 m U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD) tends to misestimate extents of barren land, which includes bedrock outcrops. This impacts many calculations beyond bedrock mapping, including soil carbon storage, hydrologic modeling, and erosion susceptibility. Here, we tested if a machine learning (ML) model could more accurately map exposed bedrock than NLCD across the entire Sierra Nevada Mountains (California, USA). The ML model was trained to identify pixels that are likely bedrock from 0.6 m imagery from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP). First, we labeled exposed bedrock at twenty sites covering more than 83 km 2 (0.13%) of the Sierra Nevada region. These labels were then used to train and test the model, which gave 83% precision and 78% recall, with a 90% overall accuracy of correctly predicting bedrock. We used the trained model to map bedrock outcrops across the entire Sierra Nevada region and compared the ML map with the NLCD map. At the twenty labeled sites, we found the NLCD barren land class, even though it includes more than just bedrock outcrops, accounted for only 41% and 40% of mapped bedrock from our labels and ML predictions, respectively. This substantial difference illustrates that ML bedrock models can have a role in improving land-cover maps, like NLCD, for a range of science applications.

California

Stratigraphy, structure, and geomorphology of the central Appalachians across the North Mountain fault zone near Harrisonburg, Virginia, USA

This field trip focuses on the geology of the central Appalachian Valley and Ridge province near Harrisonburg, Virginia, USA. Recent geologic mapping utilizing 1-m resolution lidar data has revealed new insights into the Paleozoic stratigraphy, structural geology, and Neogene landscape evolution of the region. The detailed mapping reveals the presence of the Big Spring Station Member and multiple thrombolite zones in the Cambrian Conococheague Formation extending as far south as the Briery Branch 7.5 min quadrangle, providing insights into Late Cambrian sea-level fluctuations. Multiple outcrop exposures in the study area of this guidebook confirm recent work in Pennsylvania, USA, showing that the Ordovician Reedsville Shale overlies the Martinsburg Formation and that the two are distinct and mappable as separate formations rather than laterally equivalent units as previously interpreted. Our work extends the Silurian Williamsport Sandstone into Shenandoah County, Virginia, and describes its facies relationships with the Bloomsburg Formation along strike and across the Adams Run anticline. Mapping within the thick Devonian siliciclastic sequence reveals the presence of the Mahantango Formation on the western limb of Supin Lick syncline and illustrates its complex facies relationship with the Millboro Shale. In addition, we highlight new mapping criteria for the Brallier and Foreknobs Formations and demonstrate how the specific changes to the placement of the contact between them addresses previous challenges in their differentiation. We present cosmogenic burial ages of broad alluvial fan sediments in the Shenandoah Valley near Timberville and Briery Branch, Virginia, and erosion rates estimated for the Briery Branch stream basin. Both analyses provide new constraints on the timing of landscape evolution and karst development since the middle Pliocene. This field guide also highlights some significant structural features within the North Mountain fault zone, such as evidence of imbricated thrust sheets cut by cross-strike faults that have been exploited by Eocene igneous intrusions. Map-scale horses of Silurian and Ordovician rocks hold up ridges that are oblique to the regional strike. Deformation internal to one of these horse blocks is shown to be non-coaxial with respect to the main regional northwest directed transport.

Virginia

Light absorbing particles deposited to snow cover across the Upper Colorado River Basin, Colorado Rocky Mountains, 2013-16: Interannual variations from multiple natural and anthropogenic sources

Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) as light-absorbing particles (LAPs) deposited to snow cover can result in early onset and rapid snow melting, challenging management of downstream water resources. We identified LAPs in 38 snow samples (water years 2013–2016) from the mountainous Upper Colorado River basin by comparing among laboratory-measured spectral reflectance, chemical, physical, and magnetic properties. Dust sample reflectance, averaged over the wavelength range of 0.35–2.50 μm, varied by a factor of 1.9 (range, 0.2300–0.4444) and was suppressed mainly by three components: (a) carbonaceous matter measured as total organic carbon (1.6–22.5 wt. %) including inferred black carbon, natural organic matter, and carbon-based synthetic, black road-tire-wear particles, (b) dark rock and mineral particles, indicated by amounts of magnetite (0.11–0.37 wt. %) as their proxy, and (c) ferric oxide minerals identified by reflectance spectroscopy and magnetic properties. Fundamental compositional differences were associated with different iron oxide groups defined by dominant hematite, goethite, or magnetite. These differences in iron oxide mineralogy are attributed to temporally varying source-area contributions implying strong interannual changes in regional source behavior, dust-storm frequency, and (or) transport tracks. Observations of dust-storm activity in the western U.S. and particle-size averages for all samples (median, 25 μm) indicated that regional dust from deserts dominated mineral-dust masses. Fugitive contaminants, nevertheless, contributed important amounts of LAPs from many types of anthropogenic sources.

Colorado

Geologic map and structure sections along the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and adjacent areas from Cache Creek to Lake Berryessa, northern Coast Ranges, California

Introduction Located in the Coast Ranges of northern California, the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone is the easternmost fault in the San Andreas Fault system in northern California. The fault is a right-lateral, strike-slip structure considered capable of producing an earthquake of moment magnitude 7. The purpose of this mapping is to better characterize the geology and earthquake hazards associated with the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and to help identify any evidence of active uplift on the faults bounding the Coast Ranges. Although the area immediately surrounding the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone is sparsely populated, its southern segment presents a potential seismic hazard to northern California communities as far away as the San Francisco Bay region and Sacramento. There are also nearby water resources, mineral resources, and public lands used for public recreation. The Coast Ranges of northern California are a series of northwest-southeast-oriented mountain ranges and valleys located north of the San Francisco Bay region, between the Pacific Ocean to the west and the Sacramento Valley to the east. The region has rugged terrain, high mountain peaks that reach more than 2,400 meters above sea level, isolated and narrow valley bottoms on which most human settlements are located, and large drainage systems that tend to follow the northwest-southeast-oriented topographic grain. The physiographic character of the region is shaped by its bedrock geology, deformational history, and active faulting. The basement rocks of the northern Coast Ranges consist of the Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex, the latter of which consists of two informal units, the Coast Range ophiolite and the Great Valley sequence. The Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex are in structural contact along the Coast Range Fault, a regional-scale structure and fundamental crustal boundary. The Franciscan Complex and the Great Valley complex are superposed by active, northwest-southeast-striking strike-slip faults that are associated with seismicity swarms. These active strike-slip faults can produce moderate to large earthquakes that have moment magnitudes of 7–8. In places, these active structures bound large ranges and valleys, suggesting that much of the modern topographic expression is the result of active deformation processes. This report contains new 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping along the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone between Clear Lake and Lake Berryessa. The map area spans 738 square kilometers in northern Napa County, southern Lake County, and parts of Yolo and Colusa Counties. The south and east borders of the map are 90 kilometers north of San Francisco and 70 kilometers west of Sacramento, respectively. The map area is within the Knoxville mining district, which has a history of mercury and gold mining dating back to the mid-19th century. The two main towns in the region, Lower Lake and Clearlake, California, are west-northwest of the map area. Approximately 71,000 people live in the cities and rural communities located within a 40-kilometer radius of the center of the map area. The bedrock geology, cross sections, and structural data presented herein are critical for evaluating the long-term evolution of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone. This work will supplement studies on local seismic hazards, liquefaction potential, landslide hazards, earthquake geology, natural resources, groundwater resources, engineering geology, and tectonic history by providing the background information for site-specific investigations on these subjects.

California

Long-term dynamics of earthquake swarms in the Yellowstone caldera

The factors controlling the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of earthquake swarms in volcanic systems remain unclear. We leverage leading-edge deep learning algorithms and a detailed three-dimensional velocity model to construct a 15-year high-resolution earthquake catalog of the Yellowstone caldera region. More than half of the region’s earthquakes are clustered into swarm-like families characterized by episodes of hypocenter expansion and migration. Adjacent earthquake swarms, separated by long quiescent periods, are found to be a dominant feature. We suggest that these swarms are controlled by the interplay between slowly diffusing aqueous fluids and rapid episodic fluid injections, which may result from the breaking of permeability seals. Our analyses also indicate that clustered seismicity beneath the caldera occurs on relatively immature, rougher fault structures, compared to more planar faults outside. Our results provide additional context for understanding seismicity in hydrothermal systems, highlighting the key role played by long-term fluid diffusion processes in driving the occurrence of earthquake swarms.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

High-resolution transboundary vegetation community maps of the Sonoran and Mojave Desert ecoregion to support critical landscape conservation planning and habitat management needs

We produced a 30-m resolution binational land cover map of Bird Conservation Region 33 (BCR 33) for the U.S. North American Bird Conservation Initiative. The region covers large portions of the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. The map can support the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) Migratory Bird Program’s recovery planning efforts and constitutes the first known binational land cover dataset spanning sections of the United States–Mexico border and using a consistent classification system for both countries. The mapped region includes 152 distinct land cover classes, covering a total area of 38,421,453 ha (148,345 mi 2 ), of which 13,148,345 ha (52,706 mi 2 ) are located in Mexico and 24,770,640 ha (95,639 mi 2 ) in the United States. We primarily used Landsat 8 (OLI) imagery, supplemented by limited ground surveys from two field campaigns, drone-based aerial data, and existing vegetation classification frameworks from both countries. The classification applied a data-fusion approach integrating 30-m Landsat 8 imagery, decadal phenology metrics from vegetation indices, and a random forest model trained mainly with datasets from a comprehensive national mapping project from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP Analysis Project (GAP) and federal wildland fire agencies’ Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) (GAP/LANDFIRE) [United States side] and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) [Mexico side] as well as land cover maps and opportunistic open-access and field observations. Mapping of the full BCR 33 region was carried out in two phases: 1) Phase I, the prototype map, covered a smaller portion of the transboundary area and identified 31 land cover classes, and 2) Phase II, the full BCR 33 map (refer to Figure 1), which resulted in 152 land cover classes. Using a Random Forest classifier, we achieved an overall prediction accuracy of 92% for the Phase I map and 87% for the Phase II full region map. This slight decrease can be attributed to working on a larger, more complex area with a greater number of land cover classes. No formal validation was conducted, aside from using a subset of the collected field observations and training data to assess model performance during and after training. The training sites were further verified using Google Earth (Google, 2026) imagery. Two undergraduate students who worked for over a year visually inspected imagery and open access public images to confirm each training site during model training using in-house developed, online, visual tools. A portion of this field training data was reserved for model validation, and the corresponding results are to be presented in later sections. The project developed an end-to-end, medium- and fine-resolution remote sensing–based data fusion mapping approach. This effort produced a map (Nagler et al., 2025) and the online tools to support a dynamic, live, online map for visualizing the transboundary vegetation communities in BCR 33. The toolset is currently hosted by the University of Arizona (UofA) Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Lab to support FWS partners (https://vip.arizona.edu/viplab_data_explorer?LCM_BCR33). The online map is designed to allow rapid updates using new training, validation, or correction data, making it dynamic and maintainable. The approach we took established a framework for rapid updating and correction of land cover maps, as the model can be quickly retrained with new field observations, updated training data, or other sources. This enables dynamic mapping and change detection of the region’s vegetation. This framework is an advance in data fusion and crowdsourced mapping of complex, vulnerable regions, providing support to regional stakeholders and the wider user community. This transboundary map can inform the protection, conservation, and restoration of vegetation, habitat, and ecosystems, particularly for threatened and endangered species across the two nations using consistent and harmonized binational mapping systems. Beyond supporting land management decisions and stakeholders in the transboundary desert ecoregions, this BCR 33 mapping effort establishes a foundation for future rapid, low-cost, cross-border land cover mapping that can benefit and advance ecosystem management.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Nevada, Sina

Earthquake recurrence estimates for northern Caribbean faults from combinatorial optimization

We use combinatorial optimization to find the optimal spatial distribution of random samples of earthquakes (≥6.5) that minimize the misfit in target slip rates for all faults in the northeast Caribbean, and we derive magnitude-frequency relationships with uncertainties for these faults. Slip rates for many faults are derived from GPS block models, not direct measurements, because of their underwater locations. Predicted recurrence rates for eastern Hispaniola and Puerto Rico Trench faults are 220-450 yr for M7 and 3-5 kyr for M8, with maximum feasible magnitude of M8.2. The most frequent earthquakes with magnitudes ≥7.0 are predicted on the large upper plate strike-slip faults, Enriquillo (EF) and Septentrional Fault, commensurate with the historical record. Calais et al. (2023) suggested that shortening in western Hispaniola is accommodated on the offshore Jérémie and onshore Malpasse faults north and south of EF, instead of on terrestrial faults in western Hispaniola and EF. Because of our system-modeling approach, such a configuration predicts less frequent earthquakes on EF and on western Hispaniola and Muertos convergent zones. Recurrence times of a few 100s yr for M6.7 earthquakes is predicted on the submerged faults in Mona Passage, and infrequent M>7 earthquakes are predicted on the Virgin Islands faults.

Lesser Antilles

Assessment of fresh groundwater discharge and saline surface-water intrusion at Operable Unit 2, North Chevalier Field Disposal Area (Site 11), Naval Air Station Pensacola, Florida, 2018–22

Site 11 is a former landfill at North Chevalier Field Disposal Area in Operable Unit 2 at Naval Air Station Pensacola, in northwest Florida. Site 11 is adjacent to Bayou Grande, a shallow, tidally influenced, saline estuary of the Pensacola Bay watershed. Federal and Florida regulators have expressed concern that contaminants detected in groundwater beneath the inland parts of Site 11 may discharge to Bayou Grande. In 2017, the Department of Defense, U.S. Navy, Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command Southeast asked the U.S. Geological Survey to assess the occurrence of fresh groundwater discharge to Bayou Grande at Site 11 and to delineate to the extent practicable the location of groundwater discharge. Between 2018 and 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey used a multiple-lines-of-evidence approach that included a visual method and three physical methods based on the temperature difference between groundwater and surface water to assess groundwater discharge. One of the physically based methods also used the difference in specific conductance between fresh groundwater and brackish to saline surface water. Combined, the data indicate that fresh groundwater from across Site 11 discharges primarily along the shoreline of the northern and northeastern part of Site 11. The data also indicate that saline surface water from Bayou Grande intrudes tens of feet into the shallow aquifer beneath Site 11. The combined data indicate that the interface between fresh groundwater and saline surface water changes over space and time. Any new monitoring wells proposed for installation near the shoreline of Site 11 should include approaches to monitor the changes in the location of the freshwater/saltwater interface. Care would need to be taken to collect any groundwater samples at the correct season and tidal period to provide the highest probability of collecting a representative sample of Site 11 groundwater unaffected by saltwater.

Florida