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Results for “Environmental Modeling & Assessment”

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources

USGS1997

Sequestration of hydrophobic organic contaminants by geosorbents

The chemical interactions of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) with soils and sediments (geosorbents) may result in strong binding and slow subsequent release rates that significantly affect remediation rates and endpoints. The underlying physical and chemical phenomena potentially responsible for this apparent sequestration of HOCs by geosorbents are not well understood. This challenges our concepts for assessing exposure and toxicity and for setting environmental quality criteria. Currently there are no direct observational data revealing the molecular-scale locations in which nonpolar organic compounds accumulate when associated with natural soils or sediments. Hence macroscopic observations are used to make inferences about sorption mechanisms and the chemical factors affecting the sequestration of HOCs by geosorbents. Recent observations suggest that HOC interactions with geosorbents comprise different inorganic and organic surfaces and matrices, and distinctions may be drawn along these lines, particularly with regard to the roles of inorganic micropores, natural sorbent organic matter components, combustion residue particulate carbon, and spilled organic liquids. Certain manipulations of sorbates or sorbent media may help reveal sorption mechanisms, but mixed sorption phenomena complicate the interpretation of macroscopic data regarding diffusion of HOCs into and out of different matrices and the hysteretic sorption and aging effects commonly observed for geosorbents. Analytical characterizations at the microscale, and mechanistic models derived therefrom, are needed to advance scientific knowledge of HOC sequestration, release, and environmental risk.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2019

Measurement of cyanobacteria bloom magnitude using satellite remote sensing

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) are a serious environmental, water quality and public health issue worldwide because of their ability to form dense biomass and produce toxins. Models and algorithms have been developed to detect and quantify cyanoHABs biomass using remotely sensed data but not for quantifying bloom magnitude, information that would guide water quality management decisions. We propose a method to quantify seasonal and annual cyanoHAB magnitude in lakes and reservoirs. The magnitude is the spatio-temporal mean of weekly or biweekly maximum cyanobacteria biomass for the season or year. CyanoHAB biomass is quantified using a standard reflectance spectral shape-based algorithm that uses data from Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS). We demonstrate the method to quantify annual and seasonal cyanoHAB magnitude in Florida and Ohio respectively during 2003-2011 and rank the lakes based on median magnitude over the study period. The new method can be applied to Ocean Land Color Imager (OLCI) on Sentinel-3 data for assessment of cyanoHABs and the change over time, even with issues such as variable data acquisition frequency or sensor calibration uncertainties between satellites. CyanoHAB magnitude can support monitoring and management decision-making for recreational and drinking water sources.

Florida, Ohio↗

USGS2003

Living with a large reduction in permited loading by using a hydrograph-controlled release scheme

The Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for ammonia and biochemical oxygen demand for the Pee Dee, Waccamaw, and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway system near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, mandated a 60-percent reduction in point-source loading. For waters with a naturally low background dissolved-oxygen concentrations, South Carolina anti-degradation rules in the water-quality regulations allows a permitted discharger a reduction of dissolved oxygen of 0.1 milligrams per liter (mg/L). This is known as the "0.1 rule." Permitted dischargers within this region of the State operate under the "0.1 rule" and cannot cause a cumulative impact greater than 0.1 mg/L on dissolved-oxygen concentrations. For municipal water-reclamation facilities to serve the rapidly growing resort and retirement community near Myrtle Beach, a variable loading scheme was developed to allow dischargers to utilize increased assimilative capacity during higher streamflow conditions while still meeting the requirements of a recently established TMDL. As part of the TMDL development, an extensive real-time data-collection network was established in the lower Waccamaw and Pee Dee River watershed where continuous measurements of streamflow, water level, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and specific conductance are collected. In addition, the dynamic BRANCH/BLTM models were calibrated and validated to simulate the water quality and tidal dynamics of the system. The assimilative capacities for various streamflows were also analyzed. The variable-loading scheme established total loadings for three streamflow levels. Model simulations show the results from the additional loading to be less than a 0.1 mg/L reduction in dissolved oxygen. As part of the loading scheme, the real-time network was redesigned to monitor streamflow entering the study area and water-quality conditions in the location of dissolved-oxygen "sags." The study reveals how one group of permit holders used a variable-loading scheme to implement restrictive permit limits without experiencing prohibitive capital expenditures or initiating a lengthy appeals process.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2025

Modeling wetland resources for spring migratory waterbirds under different agricultural management scenarios in the Iowa portion of the Prairie Pothole Region, USA

Constructed water quality wetlands, designed to accept tile drainage and surface runoff, are a promising solution for reducing surface water nutrient loading from agricultural systems. In addition to their water quality benefits, these systems may also offset losses of migratory waterbird stopover sites resulting from historical and future agricultural drainage modernization. To assess this possibility, we developed spatially explicit habitat models informed with expert opinion to explore the: 1) potential of water quality wetlands to provide suitable stopover resources for waterbirds during spring migration; and 2) the extent these wetlands can offset likely losses of stopover resources due to drainage modernization. We focused our modeling on the Iowa portion of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America as it was a historically important area within this vital region for waterbirds, but it has experienced widespread subsurface drainage. Model results indicate that unmitigated drainage modernization is likely to have a large negative effect on spring migratory resources for dabbling ducks and shorebirds and minimal effect on diving ducks. Water quality wetland installations are likely to provide habitat for dabbling and diving ducks, but wetland installation is unlikely to completely offset habitat losses for dabbling ducks and shorebirds. Drainage modernization aside, our results indicate that water quality wetlands can address several environmental issues associated with agricultural expansion and intensification by improving water quality and providing wetland resources for waterbirds and other organisms. Field-scale research is needed to validate these results.

Iowa↗

USGS2025

Modeling diverse environmental responses of reservoirs to floating photovoltaic systems

Floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems are emerging as a promising strategy for large-scale clean energy production worldwide. However, by altering key physical drivers such as solar radiation and wind mixing, FPV installations may have also unintended consequences for lakes and reservoirs. Given the wide diversity of freshwater systems globally, understanding the consistency in direction and magnitude of environmental responses to FPV deployment is critical for informed regulatory oversight and sustainable energy development. Here, we used process-based models to simulate the effects of FPV coverage on 11 reservoirs across the United States. This is the first multi-reservoir analysis using a laterally averaged 2D process-based modeling framework to systematically evaluate FPV impacts across diverse climatic and morphometric contexts, enabling direct comparison of magnitude and direction of responses among systems. Specifically, we evaluated changes in (1) surface and outflow temperature, (2) thermocline depth, (3) water column stability, (4) dissolved oxygen concentrations, and (5) potential suitable habitat availability for warm- and cold-water fishes. We quantified changes in these response variables by an iterative approach that simulates increases in FPV coverage and compares them with reference conditions. We summarized responses for winter (January–February) and summer (July–August). As expected, our simulations show that increasing FPV coverage consistently cooled surface waters and altered thermal stratification patterns, but the magnitude and environmental implications of these changes varied among reservoirs. Notably, greater FPV coverage led to increased variability in habitat suitability for aquatic species, with some reservoirs exhibiting distinct and sometimes divergent responses. These findings underscore the importance of considering local environmental contexts when assessing FPV impacts. While large-scale FPV systems offer potential benefits for climate mitigation, their ecological effects, particularly on thermally sensitive biota, require careful site-specific evaluation to avoid unintended consequences to local freshwater biodiversity.

Arkansas, Idaho, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, Washingt↗

USGS2013

Interacting coastal based ecosystem services: recreation and water quality in Puget Sound, WA

Coastal recreation and water quality are major contributors to human well-being in coastal regions. They can also interact, creating opportunities for ecosystem based management, ecological restoration, and water quality improvement that can positively affect people and the environment. Yet the effect of environmental quality on human behavior is often poorly quantified, but commonly assumed in coastal ecosystem service studies. To clarify this effect we investigate a water quality dataset for evidence that environmental condition partially explains variation in recreational visitation, our indicator of human behavior. In Puget Sound, WA, we investigate variation in visitation in both visitation rate and fixed effects (FE) models. The visitation rate model relates the differences in annual recreational visitation among parks to environmental conditions, park characteristics, travel cost, and recreational demand. In our FE model we control for all time-invariant unobserved variables and compare monthly variation at the park level to determine how water quality affects visitation during the summer season. The results of our first model illustrate how visitation relates to various amenities and costs. In the FE analysis, monthly visitation was negatively related to water quality while controlling for monthly visitation trends. This indicates people are responding to changes in water quality, and an improvement would yield an increase in the value of recreation. Together, these results could help in prioritizing water quality improvements, could assist the creation of new parks or the modification of existing recreational infrastructure, and provide quantitative estimates for the expected benefits from potential changes in recreational visitation and water quality improvements. Our results also provide an example of how recreational visitation can be quantified and used in ecosystem service assessments.

Washington↗

USGS2009

Responses of benthic macroinvertebrates to urbanization in nine metropolitan areas of the conterminous United States

The effects of urbanization on benthic macroinvertebrates were investigated in nine metropolitan areas (Boston, MA; Raleigh, NC; Atlanta, GA; Birmingham, AL; Milwaukee–Green Bay, WI; Denver, CO; Dallas–Fort Worth, TX; Salt Lake City, UT; and Portland, OR) as a part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program. Several invertebrate metrics showed strong, linear responses to urbanization when forest or shrublands were developed. Responses were difficult to discern in areas where urbanization was occurring on agricultural lands because invertebrate assemblages were already severely degraded. There was no evidence that assemblages showed any initial resistance to urbanization. Ordination scores, EPT taxa richness, and the average tolerance of organisms were the best indicators of changes in assemblage condition at a site. Richness metrics were better indicators than abundance metrics, and qualitative samples were as good as quantitative samples. A common set of landscape variables (population density, housing density, developed landcover, impervious surface, and roads) were strongly correlated with urbanization and invertebrate responses in all non-agricultural areas. The instream environmental variables (hydrology, water chemistry, habitat, and temperature) that were strongly correlated with urbanization and invertebrate responses were influenced by environmental setting (e.g., dominant ecoregion) and varied widely among metropolitan areas. Multilevel hierarchical regression models were developed that predicted invertebrate responses using only two landcover variables—basinscale landcover (percentage of basin area in developed land) and regional-scale landcover (antecedent agricultural land).

Conference Paper↗

USGS2018

Respiratory hazard assessment of combined exposure to complete gasoline exhaust and respirable volcanic ash in a multicellular human lung model at the air-liquid interface

Communities resident in urban areas located near active volcanoes can experience volcanic ash exposures during, and following, an eruption, in addition to sustained exposures to high concentrations of anthropogenic air pollutants ( e.g., vehicle exhaust emissions). Inhalation of anthropogenic pollution is known to cause the onset of, or exacerbate, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. It is further postulated similar exposure to volcanic ash can also affect such disease states. Understanding of the impact of combined exposure of volcanic ash and anthropogenic pollution to human health, however, remains limited. The aim of this study was to assess the biological impact of combined exposure to respirable volcanic ash (from Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat and Chaitén volcano (ChV), Chile; representing different magmatic compositions and eruption styles) and freshly-generated complete exhaust from a gasoline vehicle. A multicellular human lung model (an epithelial cell-layer composed of A549 alveolar type II-like cells complemented with human blood monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells cultured at the air-liquid interface) was exposed to diluted exhaust (1:10) continuously for 6 h, followed by immediate exposure to the ash as a dry powder (0.54 ± 0.19 μg/cm 2 and 0.39 ± 0.09 μg/cm 2 for SHV and ChV ash, respectively). After an 18 h incubation, cells were exposed again for 6 h to diluted exhaust, and a final 18 h incubation (at 37 °C and 5% CO 2 ). Cell cultures were then assessed for cytotoxic, oxidative stress and (pro-)inflammatory responses. Results indicate that, at all tested (sub-lethal) concentrations, co-exposures with both ash samples induced no significant expression of genes associated with oxidative stress ( HMOX1, NQO1 ) or production of (pro-)inflammatory markers (IL-1β, IL-8, TNF-α) at the gene and protein levels. In summary, considering the employed experimental conditions, combined exposure of volcanic ash and gasoline vehicle exhaust has a limited short-term biological impact to an advanced lung cell in vitro model.

Environmental Pollution↗

USGS2025

Causal networks to inform decisions for ecological restoration

The release of contaminants into the environment can occur from anthropogenic activities, such as oil extraction and transportation, mining, and industrial processes. Remediation associated with reducing contaminant concentrations, and restoration that improves animals and supporting habitat, are often needed to restore ecosystems to their pre-release, baseline condition. We demonstrated the application of Bayesian Decision Networks (BDNs) with two Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration (NRDAR) case studies. We use a stylized case study of riparian restoration following the remediation of a mine-impacted site to evaluate proposed restoration actions aimed at restoring Song Sparrow ( Melospiza melodia ) populations to baseline conditions. We then use a settled NRDAR case with implemented restoration in the Upper Arkansas River (UAR, Colorado, USA) to demonstrate the application of BDNs to evaluate and forecast restoration effectiveness for Brown Trout ( Salmo trutta ) (i.e., restoration effectiveness assessment). The riparian restoration model showed differences in the effects of restoration actions on Song Sparrow populations, with the time to reach baseline generally reduced with increased restoration costs, indicating trade-offs between costs and expected recovery. The UAR model showed recovery of Brown Trout populations (i.e., uplift) in response to improved instream habitat restoration, along with forecasted improvements. While the BDNs we developed were specific to two case studies, the structure is adaptable to a diversity of sites, resources, and actions. We suggest that causal network modeling can provide restoration practitioners with a decision advisory tool useful for a wide range of projects.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2010

Development of a macrophyte-based index of biotic integrity for Minnesota lakes

Traditional approaches for managing aquatic resources have often failed to account for effects of anthropogenic disturbances on biota that are not directly reflected by chemical and physical proxies of environmental condition. The index of biotic integrity (IBI) is a potentially effective assessment method to integrate ecological, functional, and structural aspects of aquatic systems. A macrophyte-based IBI was developed for Minnesota lakes to assess the ability of aquatic plant communities to indicate environmental condition. The index was developed using quantitative point intercept vegetation surveys for 97 lakes that represent a range of limnological and watershed characteristics. We followed an approach similar to that used in Wisconsin to develop the aquatic macrophyte community index (AMCI). Regional adaptation of the AMCI required the identification of species representative of macrophyte communities in Minnesota. Metrics and scaling methods were also substantially modified to produce a more empirically robust index. Regression analyses indicated that IBI scores reflected statewide differences in lake trophic state (R2 = 0.57, F = 130.3, df = 1, 95, p < 0.005), agricultural (R2 = 0.51, F = 83.0, df = 1, 79, p < 0.005), urban (R2 = 0.22, F = 23.0, df = 1, 79, p < 0.005), and forested land uses (R2 = 0.51, F = 84.7, df = 1, 79, p < 0.005), and county population density (R2 = 0.14, F = 16.6, df = 1, 95, p < 0.005). Variance partitioning analyses using multiple regression models indicated a unique response of the IBI to human-induced stress separate from a response to natural lake characteristics. The IBI was minimally affected by differences in sample point density as indicated by Monte Carlo analyses of reduced sampling effort. Our analysis indicates that a macrophyte IBI calibrated for Minnesota lakes could be useful for identifying differences in environmental condition attributed to human-induced stress gradients. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2008

Use of an integrated flow model to estimate ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics at stream biomonitoring sites

We developed an integrated hydroecological model to provide a comprehensive set of hydrologic variables representing five major components of the flow regime at 856 aquatic-invertebrate monitoring sites in New Jersey. The hydroecological model simulates streamflow by routing water that moves overland and through the subsurface from atmospheric delivery to the watershed outlet. Snow accumulation and melt, evapotranspiration, precipitation, withdrawals, discharges, pervious- and impervious-area runoff, and lake storage were accounted for in the water balance. We generated more than 78 flow variables, which describe the frequency, magnitude, duration, rate of change, and timing of flow events. Highly correlated variables were filtered by principal component analysis to obtain a non-redundant subset of variables that explain the majority of the variation in the complete set. This subset of variables was used to evaluate the effect of changes in the flow regime on aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure at 856 biomonitoring sites. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to evaluate variation in aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure across a disturbance gradient. We employed multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to build a series of MLR models that identify the most important environmental and hydrologic variables driving the differences in the aquatic-invertebrate assemblages across the disturbance gradient. The first axis of NMS ordination was significantly related to many hydrologic, habitat, and land-use/land-cover variables, including the average number of annual storms producing runoff, ratio of 25-75% exceedance flow (flashiness), diversity of natural stream substrate, and the percentage of forested land near the stream channel (forest buffer). Modifications in the hydrologic regime as the result of changes in watershed land use appear to promote the retention of highly tolerant aquatic species; in contrast, species that are sensitive to hydrologic instability and other anthropogenic disturbance become much less prevalent. We also found strong relations between an index of invertebrate-assemblage impairment, its component metrics, and the primary disturbance gradient. The process-oriented watershed modeling approach used in this study provides a means to evaluate how natural landscape features interact with anthropogenic factors and assess their effects on flow characteristics and stream ecology. By combining watershed modeling and indirect ordination techniques, we were able to identify components of the hydrologic regime that have a considerable effect on aquatic-assemblage structure and help in developing short- and long-term management measures that mitigate the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in stream systems.

New Jersey↗

USGS2020

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

Sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2018

Measuring and evaluating ecological flows from streams to regions: Steps towards national coverage

Living aquatic communities are largely determined and maintained by the volume and quality of flowing waters, both within lotic systems and in receiving waters of coastal systems. However, flow is one of the most frequently and extensively altered features of rivers and streams; alteration effects are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Lotic systems vary and different fish species need different environmental conditions, and distinct problems are evident at various spatial scales. New synoptic flow and biological information now make it possible to evaluate the effects of altered flows throughout the Great Lakes Region at scales from the stream reach to the Region. We used estimates of river and streamflow and observed fish abundances to develop tools that specify the response of fish to alterations in those flows. We fit the logistic model to a cumulative fish abundance curve as a function of yield providing an empirical means to develop models of the response of cumulative fish abundance to flows. Response zones of yield for each species in each system type (based on size and thermal class) illustrate how criteria may be developed that can be used in decision‐making for management of flows. In our example application, we evaluate both the general response of brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) abundances (and fish diversity) to changes in flows and assess the sensitivity of each stream fish community to flow alteration. Mapping stream sensitivity to flow alteration throughout the US Great Lakes Region with a multiscale spatial framework showed how regional variability in sensitivity for any fish species or assemblage may be evaluated and provides managers with information to help determine where the best opportunities for protection or restoration of streamflows and associated communities exist. These results provide valuable tools and critical information to managers responsible for balancing water uses and maintaining high quality lotic ecosystems. These methods may be applied to any geographic region and can be extended nationally or globally, where flow, temperature, fish and landscape data are available.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, ↗

USGS2001

Use of passive ambient ozone (O3) samplers in vegetation effects assessment

A stochastistic, Weibull probability model was developed and verified to simulate the underlying frequency distributions of hourly ozone (O3) concentrations (exposure dynamics) using the single, weekly mean values obtained from a passive (sodium nitrite absorbent) sampler. The simulation was based on the data derived from a co-located continuous monitor. Although at the moment the model output may be considered as being specific to the elevation and location of the study site, the results were extremely good. This effort for the approximation of the O3 exposure dynamics can be extended to other sites with similar data sets and in developing a generalized understanding of the stochastic O3 exposure-plant response relationships, conferring measurable benefits to the future use of passive O3 samplers, in the absence of continuous monitoring. Copyright ?? 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Environmental Pollution↗

USGS2026

Multivariate SWAT streamflow and surface water storage calibration enables upper Mississippi River Basin wetland change scenarios

Surface water storage (e.g., wetlands, lakes) is not typically considered in hydrological model calibrations. We tested a multivariate calibration process, incorporating Sentinel-1 and -2 surface water storage, for a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model across the 0.5 million km 2 Upper Mississippi River Basin. While 19% of the 2000 parameter sets adequately simulated discharge (Kling-Gupta efficiency >0.5), only 5% also adequately simulated surface water storage (mean absolute error <2 m), reducing model output uncertainty. Using the best calibrated model, we found that changes in surface water storage capacity most strongly affected discharge during the first annual peak flow (i.e., floods), when storage was filling. Increases in upstream surface water storage capacity resulted in projected decreases in peak flow and flashiness, with changes persisting downstream to the watershed outlet. Our findings demonstrate the importance of surface water storage in multivariate model calibration processes to inform river discharge and flood impact predictions.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisc↗

USGS2020

Social Values for Ecosystem Services, version 4.0 (SolVES 4.0)—Documentation and user manual

The geographic information system tool, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES), was developed to incorporate quantified and spatially explicit measures of social values into ecosystem service assessments. SolVES 4.0 provides an open-source version of SolVES, which was designed to assess, map, and quantify the social values of ecosystem services. Social values—the perceived, nonmarket values the public ascribes to ecosystem services, particularly cultural services, such as aesthetics and recreation—can be evaluated for various stakeholder groups. These groups are distinguishable by factors such as their attitudes and preferences regarding public uses (for example, motorized recreation and logging). As with previous versions, SolVES 4.0 derives a quantitative 10-point, social-values metric—the value index—from a combination of spatial and nonspatial responses to public value and preference surveys. The tool also calculates metrics characterizing the underlying environment, such as average distance to water and dominant landcover. SolVES 4.0 has been developed with Python using a QGIS user interface and a PostgreSQL database for required data. SolVES is integrated with Maxent maximum entropy modeling software to generate more complete social-value maps and offer robust statistical models describing the relation between the value index and explanatory environmental variables. A model’s goodness of fit to a primary study area and its potential performance in transferring social values to similar areas using value-transfer methods can be evaluated. SolVES 4.0 provides an improved open-source, public-domain tool for decision makers and researchers to evaluate the social values of ecosystem services and to facilitate discussions among diverse stakeholders regarding the tradeoffs among ecosystem services in a variety of biophysical and social contexts including mountain, forest, coastal, riparian, agricultural, and urban environments around the globe.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2016

Trophic magnification of organic chemicals: A global synthesis

Production of organic chemicals (OCs) is increasing exponentially, and some OCs biomagnify through food webs to potentially toxic levels. Biomagnification under field conditions is best described by trophic magnification factors (TMFs; per trophic level change in log-concentration of a chemical) which have been measured for more than two decades. Syntheses of TMF behavior relative to chemical traits and ecosystem properties are lacking. We analyzed >1500 TMFs to identify OCs predisposed to biomagnify and to assess ecosystem vulnerability. The highest TMFs were for OCs that are slowly metabolized by animals (metabolic rate k M < 0.01 day –1 ) and are moderately hydrophobic (log K OW 6–8). TMFs were more variable in marine than freshwaters, unrelated to latitude, and highest in food webs containing endotherms. We modeled the probability that any OC would biomagnify as a combined function of K OW and k M . Probability is greatest (&sim;100%) for slowly metabolized compounds, regardless of K OW , and lowest for chemicals with rapid transformation rates ( k M > 0.2 day –1 ). This probabilistic model provides a new global tool for screening existing and new OCs for their biomagnification potential.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2007

Natural landscape and stream segment attributes influencing the distribution and relative abundance of riverine smallmouth bass in Missouri

Protecting and restoring fish populations on a regional basis are most effective if the multiscale factors responsible for the relative quality of a fishery are known. We spatially linked Missouri's statewide historical fish collections to environmental features in a geographic information system, which was used as a basis for modeling the importance of landscape and stream segment features in supporting a population of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu. Decision tree analyses were used to develop probability-based models to predict statewide occurrence and within-range relative abundances. We were able to identify the range of smallmouth bass throughout Missouri and the probability of occurrence within that range by using a few broad landscape variables: the percentage of coarse-textured soils in the watershed, watershed relief, and the percentage of soils with low permeability in the watershed. The within-range relative abundance model included both landscape and stream segment variables. As with the statewide probability of occurrence model, soil permeability was particularly significant. The predicted relative abundance of smallmouth bass in stream segments containing low percentages of permeable soils was further influenced by channel gradient, stream size, spring-flow volume, and local slope. Assessment of model accuracy with an independent data set showed good concordance. A conceptual framework involving naturally occurring factors that affect smallmouth bass potential is presented as a comparative model for assessing transferability to other geographic areas and for studying potential land use and biotic effects. We also identify the benefits, caveats, and data requirements necessary to improve predictions and promote ecological understanding. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗