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1,656 records · Page 59Linked to original sources
USGS2025

No evidence for an active margin-spanning megasplay fault at the Cascadia Subduction Zone

It has been previously proposed that a megasplay fault within the Cascadia accretionary wedge, spanning from offshore Vancouver Island to Oregon, has the potential to slip during a future Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. This hypothetical fault has major implications for tsunami size and arrival times and is included in disaster-planning scenarios currently in use in the region. This hypothesis is evaluated in this study using CASIE21 deep-penetrating and U.S. Geological Survey high-resolution seismic reflection profiles. We map changes in wedge structural style and seismic character to identify the inner-outer wedge transition zone where a megasplay fault has been previously hypothesized to exist and evaluate evidence for active faulting within this zone. Our results indicate that there is not an active, through-going megasplay fault in Cascadia, but instead, the structure and activity of faulting at the inner-outer wedge transition zone is highly variable and segmented along strike, consistent with the segmentation of other physical and mechanical properties in Cascadia. Wedge sedimentation, plate dip, and subducting topography are proposed to play a major role in controlling megasplay fault development and evolution. Incorporating updated megasplay fault location, geometry, and activity into modeling of Cascadia earthquakes and tsunamis could help better constrain associated hazards.

British Columbia, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2026

Long-term monotonic trends in water budget components in the contiguous United States: Insights from two hydrologic models

Characterizing changes to water availability for domestic, industrial, agricultural, and other uses is essential to support water management. To better quantify these changes, the U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research produced two hydrologic models simulating water budget components from 1980 to 2021 over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Both hydrologic models were driven by a common atmospheric forcing dataset and aggregated to common spatial and temporal scales, which enables a novel evaluation of congruency between the models. We present annual and seasonal trends in six water budget components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, groundwater recharge, soil saturation, and snow water equivalent) based on the Mann–Kendall test for monotonic trend and Theil-Sen slope estimate for the water year 1983–2021 period for ~86,000 catchments in CONUS. Additional components and metrics from our analysis pipeline are available in an associated published dataset, which contains more than 46 million trend results. The water budget trends showed broad agreement with prior observational and modeling studies that indicate increasing trends in the northeast and decreasing trends in southwestern CONUS. We found the seasonal variability in water budget trends was greatest in the southern, central, and northwest CONUS. These findings support integrated trend assessments when coupled with trends in water quality and use.

Contiguous United States↗
USGS1986

Regionalization of low-flow characteristics of Tennessee streams

Procedures for estimating 3-day 2-year, 3-day 10-year, 3-day 20-year, and 7-day 10-year low flows at ungaged stream sites in Tennessee are based on surface geology and drainage area size. One set of equations applies to west Tennessee streams, and another set applies to central and east Tennessee streams. The equations do not apply to streams where flow is significantly altered by activities of man. Standard errors of estimate of equations for west Tennessee are 24 to 32% and for central and east Tennessee 31 to 35%. Streamflow recession indexes, in days/log cycle, are used to account for effects of geology of the drainage basin on low flow of streams. The indexes in Tennessee range from 32 days/log cycle for clay and shale to 350 days/log cycle for gravel and sand, indicating different aquifer characteristics of the geologic units that sustain streamflows during periods of no surface runoff. Streamflow recession rate depends primarily on transmissivity and storage characteristics of the aquifers, and the average distance from stream channels to basin divides. Geology and drainage basin size are the most significant variables affecting low flow in Tennessee streams according to regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Tennessee↗
USGS2025

Zircon as a pathfinder to REE mineralization

Carbonatites and alkaline silicate rocks are major primary sources of the rare earth elements (REE) and other critical metals, such as Nb. Despite the economic significance of these rocks, their formation and the processes of REE enrichment are poorly understood. Here, statistical analysis of a global dataset demonstrates that zircon geochemistry is a powerful recorder of REE metallogenesis and a potential pathfinder for REE deposits. Zircons from REE and Nb fertile intrusions lack Eu anomalies and have elevated Gd/Yb and Th/Yb, indicating they crystallised from magmas that originated from deep, oxidised and enriched mantle sources. Complexes with Nb enrichment have low U/Nb, reflecting an enriched mantle source, whereas high U/Nb in REE-only fertile intrusions suggest a subduction-metasomatised mantle source. Machine learning models demonstrate high accuracy in classifying zircon from barren and fertile deposits. Classification of detrital zircons shows that REE-enriched deposits correlate with supercontinent assembly, whereas Nb fertile complexes are associated with supercontinent breakup. This approach offers a new, mineral to global scale, petrologic and exploration tool that enhances understanding of REE metallogenesis.

Geochemical Perspectives Letters↗
USGS2024

Seismic response comparison of a historical masonry church subject to real and simulated ground motions

In recent years, advanced numerical models and high-performance computing have facilitated the utilization of ground motion time series in the assessment of the non-linear dynamic behavior of historic masonry structures. Since recorded accelerograms can be sparse for specific analysis conditions, stochastic ground motion simulations have become a viable alternative to overcome this limitation. This study simulates the recorded acceleration time series of the Central Italy 2016 earthquake event at the closest station to the town of Macerata using a site-based stochastic approach. The simulated motions are seismologically evaluated using a goodness-of-fit method in terms of various intensity measures. The simulated records, in conjunction with real records, are used to study the non-linear dynamic behavior of San Filippo Neri church located in Macerata. The church of San Filippo represents an important example of Baroque religious architecture in central Italy, which was damaged and closed off to the public after the 2016 earthquake events. The construction was investigated with a vast diagnostic campaign which included on-site testing and dynamic identification tests. The collected data is used to calibrate the dynamic response of a three-dimensional finite element model of the church. The model is finally used to compare the non-linear seismic responses under real and simulated ground motions with the site recorded damage. The results of structural responses demonstrate a strong agreement between the real and simulated records, providing evidence to support the validation of the site-based stochastic simulation.

Macerata↗
USGS2025

International data gaps at the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data

The Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data (CESMD) is utilized by seismologists, engineers, and disaster management professionals in the US and has historically achieved and distributed waveforms from across the globe for significant earthquakes. The increased access to the waveforms via Web API (Application Programming Interface) offers a unique opportunity to provide the community complete datasets, sampling a variety of tectonic environments and geologic conditions, increasing the number of available ground motion records for use in ground motion models (GMMs) and improving the accuracy of earthquake engineering evaluations. The objective of this study is to programmatically identify gaps in global event data from the past decade and backfill missing data gaps at CESMD. We first compare the CESMD catalog with the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog identifying regions and time periods where strong-motion data is limited or inadequate. To backfill datasets at CESMD for significant events, we pinpoint regions and time intervals that lack information, creating a list of events for which we’d like to obtain data. An important facet of this work is identifying the source of data and metadata across earthquake repositories around the world and integrating these data repositories into our current strong-motion data processing workflow. In parallel with these newly processed datasets, we are developing a script to produce data origination citations to include provenance and attribution information to associate with respective datasets at CESMD. We showcase our methodology for identifying and filling data gaps at CESMD using three case studies (the 2018 Anchorage Alaska earthquake sequence, seismicity associated with the 2018 Hawaiian Kilauea volcano eruption, and several earthquakes in Turkey) and then outline our strategy to apply our data gap backfilling methods on an international scale.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2026

Software to support remote sensing of river discharge based on critical flow theory

Water resource management requires accurate observations of streamflow but standard field methods for measuring river discharge ( Q ) are costly and can be hazardous for equipment and personnel. Remote sensing has become a viable alternative, but many image-based techniques require field data for calibration and depth and velocity can seldom be mapped with a single sensor. A new approach based on critical flow theory, in contrast, allows both of these attributes to be inferred from readily available image data. This technique only pertains to sites with standing waves, called undular hydraulic jumps (UHJs), but a recent investigation demonstrated its potential to provide accurate discharge estimates. This paper introduces software designed to facilitate Inferring Q from UHJs Identified in River Images (InQUIRI). The package includes modules for retrieving data from image servers, making the measurements of wavelength and width required to calculate discharge, inferring a representative wavelength from a profile digitized along a wave train, combining multiple estimates to obtain an ensemble median discharge, and assessing accuracy via comparison to gage records from the U.S. Geological Survey. By making these steps easier to implement, InQUIRI enables users to apply the workflow to a variety of UHJ-containing images. Accumulating more case studies, some successful and others less so, would help constrain the range of applicability of the critical flow approach and foster development of refined guidelines for selecting and measuring waves. The software described herein could play an important role in promoting informed use of this new technique for non-contact streamflow measurement.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2024

Mapping the resistivity structure of Walker Ridge 313 in the Gulf of Mexico using the marine CSEM method

A marine controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) campaign was carried out in the Gulf of Mexico to further develop marine electromagnetic techniques in order to aid the detection and mapping of gas hydrate deposits. Marine CSEM methods are used to obtain an electrical resistivity structure of the subsurface which can indicate the type of substance filling the pore space, such as gas hydrates which are more resistive. Results from the Walker Ridge 313 study (WR 313) are presented in this paper and compared with the Gulf of Mexico Gas Hydrate Joint Industry Project II (JIP2) logging while drilling (LWD) results and available seismic data. The hydrate, known to exist within sheeted sand deposits, is mapped as a resistive region in the two dimensional (2D) CSEM inversion models. This is consistent with the JIP2 LWD resistivity results. CSEM inversions that use seismic horizons provide more realistic results compared to the unconstrained inversions by providing sharp boundaries and architectural control on the location of the resistive and conductive regions in the CSEM model. The seismic horizons include: 1) the base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ), 2) the top of salt, and 3) the top and bottom of a fine grained marine mud interval with near vertical hydrate filled fractures, to constrain the CSEM inversion model. The top of salt provides improved location for brines, water saturated salt, and resistive salt. Inversions of the CSEM data map the occurrence of a ‘halo’ of conductive brines above salt. The use of the BGHSZ as a constraint on the inversion helps distinguish between free gas and gas hydrate as well as gas hydrate and water saturated sediments.

Louisiana↗
USGS2024

Exploring the dynamic interactions between the Southern San Andreas Fault and a normal fault under the Salton Sea

We investigate the dynamic interactions between the Southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) and a proximal normal fault (NF) beneath the Salton Sea in southern California. The NF, positioned near the SSAF terminus at Bombay Beach, exhibits 11–15 displacement events across 14 stratigraphic sequences, with a range of 0.2–1.4 m of vertical offset since ∼2–3 ka. Notably, four of these events may align temporally with SSAF earthquakes, raising questions about the possible interplay between the two faults. Utilizing dynamic rupture models, we analyze the coseismic interactions between the SSAF and NF, addressing under what conditions the SSAF induces slip on the NF. Our findings reveal that a suite of SSAF ruptures, particularly those propagating from north to south, can trigger slip on the normal fault and replicate observed vertical offsets. If the SSAF extends beneath the Salton Sea, earthquakes originating south of the NF intersection are less likely to trigger normal fault slip, although we cannot exclude this possibility. Some SSAF ruptures do not trigger discernible slip on the NF, rendering such events undetectable in the stratigraphic record. Our research contributes toward discussions regarding the seismic hazard in southern California, shedding light on the interplay between the SSAF and NF.

California↗
USGS2026

Estimation of parental abundance using hierarchical Bayesian modeling with data augmentation

Pedigree-based estimation methods leverage the fact that each offspring in a cohort is genotypically “marked” by its parents and represent a recent and promising toolset for estimating population dynamics. This includes pedigree accumulation estimators that model the “accumulation” of inferred unique parents within a given cohort to estimate parental abundance. Unlike close-kin mark-recapture approaches, which rely on intercohort comparisons, pedigree accumulation modeling can be completed solely using intracohort samples. This is particularly advantageous for semelparous species, where intercohort pairs are impossible and adult life stages can be difficult to sample without affecting their likelihood of successfully reproducing. Previous work has evaluated a range of estimators for such datasets, concluding that the non-parametric Chao estimator provides the most accurate and precise estimates for feasible levels of sampling effort. We used simulated data to evaluate an alternative estimator based on hierarchical modeling and data augmentation in a Bayesian framework. Results indicate that estimates from the hierarchical Bayesian estimator had comparable accuracy and better precision than both the previously tested Chao1 estimator and the improved iChao formulation across a range of sample sizes and sex ratios. Furthermore, the Bayesian estimator was far more robust to simulated errors in pedigree reconstruction, especially the presence of false negatives. Hierarchical Bayesian pedigree accumulation models can also provide additional insight into underlying reproductive ecology through their use of an explicit observation process, allowing for the incorporation or estimation of species- and population-specific reproductive dynamics. More broadly, the parametric nature of these models offers opportunities to efficiently pool information among datasets as well as to propagate uncertainty within more complex models.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS1983

Base flow and ground water in upper Sweetwater Valley, Tennessee

The upper Sweetwater Valley area has a flow system with complex interaction between surface and ground water. A water budget study indicated that during dry years approximately three-fourths of the annual flow to Sweetwater Creek may be derived from ground-water sources. Hydrograph analysis showed seasonal variation of recharge to the ground-water flow system. Streamflow records were analyzed to estimate the frequency of low flow of Sweetwater Creek at river mile 16.7, and indicated the lowest average flow for 1 day in 20 years to be about 5.1 cubic feet per second. Two periods of base-flow measurements of Sweetwater Creek identified channel reaches with significant gains and losses of streamflow. Base flow measurements also showed interbasin transfer of water among sub-basins of the valley. Major flow surpluses were associated with areas in which the majority of flow originated at a spring. Topographically low areas adjacent to the main stem of Sweetwater Creek generally have surplus flow. Topographically higher areas generally have deficient surface outflow unless significant spring flow occurs in the basin. Ground-water recharge occurs by water draining into sinkholes, faults, and fractures. Ground-water flow is regionally diffused across formation strikes from the topographically low areas unless the water is exposed to highly permeable formations or impervious formations. Ground water infiltrates the highly permeable formations and flows along strike. Ground water encountering impervious formations may discharge at small springs at the contact, or may reroute along the contact if the upgradient rock is sufficiently permeable or has well developed secondary porosity. Groundwater discharges to streams at innumerable seeps and at a few large springs. Areas of ground-water flow up-gradient of large springs are hypothesized as likely areas of significant ground-water reservoirs.

Tennessee↗
USGS2024

High resolution identification and quantification of diffuse deep groundwater discharge in mountain rivers using continuous boat-mounted helium measurements

Discharge of deeply sourced groundwater to streams is difficult to locate and quantify, particularly where both discrete and diffuse discharge points exist, but diffuse discharge is one of the primary controls on solute budgets in mountainous watersheds. The noble gas helium is a unique identifier of deep groundwater discharge because groundwater with long residence times is commonly enriched in helium. In this study, a portable mass spectrometer was used to measure longitudinal variation in dissolved helium concentrations in two mountainous rivers at high spatial resolution not feasible with traditional sampling techniques. Helium profiles were then simulated using a mass-balance model to quantify longitudinal variation in groundwater discharge to the receiving rivers. Results indicate helium concentrations were enriched by multiple orders of magnitude above atmospheric equilibrium in both rivers and that this persisted for up to 18 km below observed pulse inputs in the Colorado River. Helium mass-balance models match observed longitudinal patterns with the exception of sharp initial increases in helium observed in the rivers. Increased longitudinal groundwater discharge rates correspond to mapped geologic structures in both watersheds that likely transport deep geothermal water. Models show variable sensitivity to spatial assignment of input variables representing the groundwater source, illustrating the importance of collecting data from discrete groundwater discharges where possible. The methodology shows promise for field experiments designed to assess air–water exchange rates and to quantify total groundwater discharge from a combination of discrete and diffuse sources.

Colorado, Utah↗
USGS2026

King Rails in southeastern Arkansas are majority resident

King Rails ( Rallus elegans ), a declining species of secretive marsh bird, have a mixed migratory strategy, with some individuals migrating and some being year-round residents. Determining the distribution of migratory versus resident King Rails is critical to guiding habitat management and assessing risks to populations. We examined the migratory status of adult King Rails at the Choctaw West Wildlife Management Area in southeastern Arkansas, the only known site in Arkansas with multiple breeding pairs. Of the 23 adult King Rails we tagged in 2022 and 2023, two birds migrated away from the local area, one in each year. One migrated 145 km, and the other 450 km. Our findings suggest that the line between the migratory and resident range of Arkansas King Rails could be north of our site.

Arkansas↗
USGS2025

Gulf Coast Basin CORE-CM initiative final report

The Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin (UT-BEG) is leading the Gulf Coast Carbon Ore, Rare Earth, and Critical Minerals (CORE-CM) Initiative to assess the potential to produce critical minerals (CMs), including rare earth elements (REEs) from coal, coal ash, and produced water related to oil and gas production, and related materials (alumina processing waste [red mud], heavy mineral sands, graphite, and zeolite) within the Gulf Coast Basin. This project represents the first phase in a long-term program and provides reconnaissance data that will be foundational for future work by assessing resources and suggesting plans to be conducted in future work and expanding stakeholder engagement. The project includes several tasks designed to identify, characterize, and assess several necessary aspects for development of CMs and REEs in the Gulf Coast Basin.

Gulf Coast basin↗
USGS2026

Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs) from separate breeding sites subdivides the Prairie Pothole Region in space and time during southbound migration

Some staging regions support multiple groups of the same migratory species, each of which may use the region differently. Characterizing the ways, in which separate groups use such regions can therefore help to identify vulnerabilities during this sensitive period of the annual cycle. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a massive wetland complex in the northern Great Plains of North America used by ∼11 million shorebirds during migration. The PPR has been heavily modified by agriculture and is experiencing varied effects of global climate change, threatening the health of the shorebirds that rely on it. Here, we used 6 seasons of southbound tracking data of Tringa flavipes (Lesser Yellowlegs)—a long-distance migratory shorebird species with an estimated population decline of 63% over the last 4 decades—from 9 sites across their breeding range to explore differences in migratory behavior within this important staging region. We found that 75% of tracked individuals used the region during southbound migration, and T. flavipes from different breeding sites detoured 110–875 km from their most direct migratory route to access the PPR. Individuals that arrived later stayed longer and made more stops within the region than those that arrived early. Individuals originating from different breeding sites also displayed spatial and temporal segregation within the region: T. flavipes from southwest and central Alaska relied heavily on the northwestern PPR, while those from Canada used the central and southeastern portions of the PPR. Finally, timing of use varied among groups, but the southeastern PPR became increasingly important over the course of the southbound migratory window, as other wetlands likely dried out. Our study highlights the portions of the PPR of critical importance to migrating T. flavipes and the diversity of ways, in which different groups from within the same species can use a single staging region.

Alaska, Manitoba, Northwest Territories, Ontario, ↗
USGS2024

Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model

We present earthquake scenarios developed to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Scenarios can serve a range of local and regional needs, from developing proactive-targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk to aiding emergency management planning. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to communicate seismic hazard and risk to audiences who are not well versed in methods, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Specifically, we discuss the scenarios developed, challenges, and lessons learned in the development process, and how this work aided the development of the 2023 NSHM itself. In total, 28 scenarios were developed for Hawaii, Utah, Alaska, and Virginia considering the 2023 NSHM science, past scenario efforts, and input from local experts and stakeholders. Finally, we investigate how NSHM modeling decisions can change estimated impacts to Utah and Hawaii in more detail showing, for example, that a shallower dip of the Wasatch fault under Salt Lake City can increase predicted ground-motion intensities and therefore estimated losses and deaths.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2026

Bayesian belief network model to predict human-wildlife conflict in protected areas

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) poses a pervasive global challenge, affecting livelihoods and threatening biodiversity. To better anticipate and mitigate HWC risk, we developed a large-scale predictive model using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). We surveyed 1,011 park rangers across 135 terrestrial protected areas in three Andean countries, documenting recent HWC incidents involving wildlife persecution or killing, livestock depredation, crop damage, or threats to human safety and property. We identified key drivers of HWC risk, including governance, wildlife acceptance, participation, and habitat quality. A sensitivity analysis revealed that enhancing governance and improving wildlife acceptance could reduce HWC risk by > 85%. The BBN model demonstrated scalability, effectively identifying strategies to reduce HWC risk at multiple scales, from individual protected areas to national networks. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening governance, increasing wildlife acceptance, and enhancing community participation in conservation efforts. BBNs provide a flexible, cost-effective, and data-driven tool to guide protected areas and wildlife managers in monitoring, anticipating, and making informed decisions to mitigate conflict and promote coexistence.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2024

Post-wildfire debris flows

Post-wildfire debris flows pose severe hazards to communities and infrastructure near and within recently burned mountainous terrain. Intense heat of wildfires changes the runoff characteristics of a watershed by combusting the vegetative canopy, litter, and duff, introducing ash into the soil and creating water repellant soils. Following wildfire, rainfall on bare ground is less able to infiltrate into the fire-altered soils and overland flow is less impeded by vegetation. Rainfall runoff in recently burned areas can erode hillslopes owing to the removal of soil binding organic matter near the soil surface by fire. In channels, loose, dry-ravel deposits composed of sand and gravel are readily entrained by concentrated runoff in channels. Entrainment of soil on hillslopes and in channels bulks up the sediment concentration of the rainfall runoff to generate debris flows capable of transporting boulders and large woody debris. Post-wildfire debris flows can be triggered by rainfall conditions that would typically produce little runoff during unburned conditions. The primary rainfall trigger for post-wildfire debris flows is high intensity rainfall during short duration convective rainstorms or periods of high rainfall intensity embedded within a long-duration frontal storm. Numerous observations of debris flows triggered by storms lasting less than an hour following periods of little to no rainfall indicate that antecedent rainfall is not a requirement for initiation of post-wildfire debris flows. Post-wildfire debris-flow hazard assessment entails estimating probability and magnitude of debris flows in the burned area, estimating debris-flow runout and intensity, and defining rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation. In the United States, probability and magnitude is estimated using empirically derived models largely based on data collected in southern California. The models provide maps to identify watersheds and drainage paths where post-wildfire hazards are most pronounced. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds can be incorporated into flood hazard forecasting tools. Currently, work is underway to identify how to best implement debris-flow runout models in burned areas with efficiency and accuracy. Post-wildfire debris flows have been a long-recognized process in the Transverse Ranges of southern California; however, climate change is driving more frequent wildfires to burn more mountainous terrain throughout the western United States and worldwide. As a result, post-wildfire debris flows are becoming a more common threat in areas where they were once infrequent. As the threat of post-wildfire debris flow expands into new areas, evaluating the hazard becomes challenging because the degree to which wildfire increases debris-flow susceptibility varies from region to region. This chapter summarizes the knowledge to date for evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow susceptibility and hazard assessment. We summarize the characteristics of wildfire burn severity, topography, underlying soil and geology, and rainfall conditions that contribute to making a watershed most likely to produce post-wildfire debris flows. Methods for hazard assessment in the United States and other countries are summarized. We highlight knowledge gaps for how post-wildfire debris-flow susceptibility varies throughout the western United States and worldwide and identify research needs to improve hazard assessment methods in different geographies.

Book chapter↗