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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Refining capture-recapture recruitment estimation methods for Atlantic sturgeon

The Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus was once of great commercial importance in many coastal rivers of the eastern USA. Over the 19th and 20th centuries, most historical stocks of Atlantic sturgeon were depleted by human activities. Estimating recruitment for the remaining populations is challenging due to sampling constraints, limited age data, and natural variability. However, recruitment estimates could inform recovery efforts. The objectives of this study were to compare 2 modeling approaches to estimate recruitment of age-1 Atlantic sturgeon and provide an updated index of abundance across more than a decade of sampling in the Altamaha River, Georgia. First, we constructed capture histories of river-resident juveniles, using capture-mark-recapture data collected from 2008 to 2020, and assigned ages based on length-frequency analysis. Second, we compared more traditional Huggins closed population models and a recent nonlinear extension of Huggins models—vector generalized additive models (VGAMs)—to estimate abundance of age-1 fish. Both model types indicated similar yearly age-1 abundance estimates (Huggins: 163 in 2017 to 3839 in 2010; VGAM: 312 in 2020 to 4448 in 2010), but the VGAMs provided more direct interpretation for factors that might affect capture probability (e.g. sampling effort, temperature, fish length). This study indicates that the age-1 Altamaha River Atlantic sturgeon population has remained relatively stable over the past decade and provides a long-term baseline which will better enable managers to assess the effects of either future restoration actions or environmental disturbances on the population.

Georgia↗
USGS2026

Multi-year cut-to-drown management limits Phragmites australis growth, belowground resources, and rhizome viability in Great Lakes wetlands

The distribution and abundance of Phragmites in the Great Lakes coastal zone has expanded in part due to its unique ventilation physiology and its ability to take advantage of changes in lake levels over the past several decades. During an extended period of low lake levels in the early 2000s, Phragmites expanded into vast shallow water areas as lake bottoms were exposed. Many of those populations were able to persist when lake levels rose several years later. Here, we investigate a management strategy, known as cut-to-drown, that takes advantage of elevated water levels to effectively control Phragmites by cutting stems underwater, thereby drowning the plant and depleting its stored resources. We tested the impacts of cut timing and frequency on the effectiveness of the cut-to-drown strategy through a multi-year manipulative field study. After two seasons of treatments, we found a 92–99 % reduction in stem density, depending on cut timing. Carbohydrate reserves in rhizomes declined 75–92 %, such that rhizome viability was reduced by 73–100 %, depending on cut timing. We found that cutting continuously (every 2–3 weeks) throughout two growing seasons was the most effective way to implement cut-to-drown but provide evidence that less frequent cutting could produce similar results. Our study provides important evidence to inform best management practices for cut-to-drown. Particularly as lake level fluctuations become more frequent and extreme in the future, cut-to-drown could serve as a useful tool for limiting Phragmites’ ability to persist in high water environments.

Michigan, Ohio↗
USGS2023

Nearshore subtidal community response during and after sediment disturbance associated with dam removal

Dam removal is used increasingly to restore aquatic ecosystems and remove unnecessary or high-risk infrastructure. As the number of removals increases, there is a growing understanding about the hydrologic, geomorphic, and ecological responses to these removals. Most dam removal studies, however, focus on river and watershed responses to dam removal. The removal of two dams on the Elwha River provided a unique opportunity to characterize the response of nearshore (coastal) ecosystems. We conducted SCUBA surveys between 2011 and 2022 to quantify trajectories of change in a nearshore ecosystem during and after dam removal. We focused on the degree to which the abundances of kelp, benthic invertebrates, and fish changed in response to patterns of sediment fluxes during and after dam removal. Our findings point to two pathways of response depending on the disturbance mechanism and species type. Sites with persistent sediment deposition were characterized by wholesale community changes that did not recover to a before dam removal condition. Instead, the sites were colonized by new species that were largely absent prior to dam removal. Sites that experienced high turbidity but lacked persistent seafloor deposition were primarily characterized by a reduction in the abundance of kelp and other algae during dam removal and a rapid recovery after sediment flux to the nearshore declined. Dam removal influences on invertebrates and fish at these sites were more variable, benefiting some species and disadvantaging others. In addition to dam removal, sea star wasting syndrome and a marine heatwave exerted distinct controls on subtidal communities during the same period. The loss of the predatory sea star Pycnopodia helianthoides was associated with gains in some of its prey species, and kelp community changes reflected regional trends in ocean temperature and kelp abundance. The results presented here have important implications for understanding the response of marine ecosystems to future dam removals and similar sediment perturbation events.

Washington↗
USGS1978

Lithium, a preliminary survey of its mineral occurrence in flint clay and related rock types in the United States

Maximum concentrations of lithium found in samples of flint clay and associated rocks of Pennsylvanian age in different States, in parts per million (ppm), are: Missouri, 5100; Pennsylvania-Maryland, 2100; Kentucky, 890; Ohio, 660; Alabama, 750; and Illinois, 160. Lithium-bearing kaolin deposits are distributed in the Coastal Plain province from New Jersey to Texas, and one occurs in Idaho; maximum lithium concentrations in samples from these deposits range from 64 to 180 ppm. The maximum concentration found in the Arkansas bauxite region is 460 ppm and that in flint clay in Colorado is 370 ppm. Samples from areas other than Pennsylvania, Maryland, Kentucky and Missouri are relatively few in number, represent mostly commercially valuable clays, and represent only a part of the refractory clay deposits in the United States. Data are not available on the clays associated with these deposits that may be unusable because they contain too much lithium as well as other deleterious elements. In both Pennsylvania and Missouri, lithium contents vary regionally between districts and locally between deposits. In samples containing more than 2000 ppm lithium, the lithium occurs in a dioctahedral chlorite mineral very similar to cookeite, which previously has not been recognized in sedimentary clays. The associated clays consist chiefly of well-crystallized kaolinite. The dioctahedral chlorite, however, seems to be most abundant where diaspore and boehmite occur along with the kaolinite. Barium, chromium, copper, phosphorus and strontium are present in some samples in amounts of several hundred pans per million or more, and may contribute to the failure of some clays to perform satisfactorily in firing tests. Lithium-rich clays could serve as a significant lithium resource in the very distant future. Clays that contain as much as 1% lithium may be common enough in Missouri or in Pennsylvania to be produced as a by-product to help support benefication costs for refractory clays. Sufficient amounts of lithium-rich clay may be found in deposits that have been explored, found unsatisfactory for normal refractory uses, and not developed. The lithium-rich clay in some deposits presently being worked may be worth stockpiling for eventual use.

Energy↗
USGS2006

High-resolution boomer seismic-reflection profiles of the shelf off southern California from cruise A-1-00-SC: Santa Monica Bay to San Diego

High-resolution boomer data were collected in the California Continental Borderland as part of the southern California Earthquake Hazards Task of the Southern California Coastal and Marine Geology Regional Investigations Project. During the period from 1997 to 2002, five data-acquisition cruises collected seismic-reflection data using several different systems from offshore Santa Barbara, California, south to the Exclusive Economic Zone boundary with Mexico. A key mission of this project was to map late Quaternary deformation in addition to improving our understanding of which offshore fault zones might have potential to damage highly populated areas of southern California. State regulations concerning the use of seismic-reflection equipment within three miles of the coastline precluded the routine gathering of high-resolution multichannel data in that swath adjacent to the coast. Boomer seismic-reflection data, however, can be obtained within the state 3-mile limit provided the operation receives authorization from the California State Lands Commission. The Geopulse boomer data accessible through this report were collected on the cruise A-1-00-SC, which was the only survey where we requested permission to work inside the 3-mile limit of the State of California. These data are critical to discovering connections between onshore and offshore faults, the overall lengths of which are related to the potential size of an earthquake that might be generated along them. The 2000 survey was designed to fill the gap between onshore data and reflection data obtained in deeper water on previous cruises as well as data anticipated from future surveys. This report includes trackline maps showing the location of the data, as well as both digital data files (SEG-Y) and images of all of the profiles.

California↗
USGS2011

Coherence of river and ocean conditions along the US West Coast during storms

The majority of water and sediment discharge from the small, mountainous watersheds of the US West Coast occurs during and immediately following winter storms. The physical conditions (waves, currents, and winds) within and acting upon the proximal coastal ocean during these winter storms strongly influence dispersal patterns. We examined this river–ocean temporal coherence for four coastal river–shelf systems of the US West Coast (Umpqua, Eel, Salinas, and Santa Clara) to evaluate whether specific ocean conditions occur during floods that may influence coastal dispersal of sediment. Eleven years of corresponding river discharge, wind, and wave data were obtained for each river–shelf system from USGS and NOAA historical records, and each record was evaluated for seasonal and event-based patterns. Because near-bed shear stresses due to waves influence sediment resuspension and transport, we used spectral wave data to compute and evaluate wave-generated bottom-orbital velocities. The highest values of wave energy and discharge for all four systems were consistently observed between October 15 and March 15, and there were strong latitudinal patterns observed in these data with lower discharge and wave energies in the southernmost systems. During floods we observed patterns of river–ocean coherence that differed from the overall seasonal patterns. For example, downwelling winds generally prevailed during floods in the northern two systems (Umpqua and Eel), whereas winds in the southern systems (Salinas and Santa Clara) were generally downwelling before peak discharge and upwelling after peak discharge. Winds not associated with floods were generally upwelling on all four river–shelf systems. Although there are seasonal variations in river–ocean coherence, waves generally led floods in the three northern systems, while they lagged floods in the Santa Clara. Combined, these observations suggest that there are consistent river–ocean coherence patterns along the US West Coast during winter storms and that these patterns vary substantially with latitude. These results should assist with future evaluations of flood plume formation and sediment fate along this coast.

California, Oregon↗
USGS2007

Investigation of wind and water level for the Giacomini Wetland Restoration Project, Point Reyes National Seashore

Point Reyes National Seashore (PRNS), comprising unique elements of geological, biological, and historical interest, is located on the central California coast approximately 60 km northwest of San Francisco. The National Seashore contains nearly 130 km of exposed and protected shorelines, spectacular coastal cliffs and headlands, lagoons, open grasslands, bushy hillsides, and forested ridges. Approximately 30 km of the shoreline are coastal-dune habitat that supports 11 federally listed species, including the threatened western snowy plover and the endangered plants Tidestrom's lupine ( Lupinus tidestromii ) and beach layia ( Layia carnosa ). The San Andreas Fault, a right-lateral strike-slip fault, trends northwest along the northeastern side of the park. Tomales Bay, which is straight, long, narrow, and shallow, runs along the northeastern boundary of PRNS. The Bay, which fills the northwestern end of a rift valley at the intersection of the San Andreas Fault with the coastline, is approximately 20 km long, 2 km wide, and 6 m deep with mountainous terrain to the southwest and rolling hills to the northeast. Tomales Bay is one of the cleanest estuaries on the West Coast. In winter, approximately 17,000 to 20,000 shorebirds inhabit Tomales Bay and Bodega Bay, which lies directly to the north. At the head of Tomales Bay, the Giacomini Ranch comprises 563 acres of pastureland currently being used for grazing dairy cattle. After more than 50 years of operation as a dairy, the National Park Service acquired the Giacomini property with the intention to restore most of it and the nearby Olema Marsh to tidal wetland. Restoration will add approximately 4% to the existing coastal wetlands in California. The project will return the headwaters of Tomales Bay and two major stream intersections to an intertidal marsh environment, enhancing habitat for both wildlife and fish populations and contributing to the long-term health of Tomales Bay. Prior to the establishment of the ranch, the area was primarily salt marsh that formed as the delta of Lagunitas Creek expanded into Tomales Bay. In converting the salt marsh to dairy land, levees and tide gates were constructed to prevent tidal incursion and stream flooding. Those levees have significantly altered the patterns of estuarine circulation and sediment deposition. To restore natural hydrologic processes within the area and to promote the return of ecological functions and processes, the levees will have to be breached or removed. Developing a successful restoration strategy requires knowledge of elevations within the pastureland and the range of water depths that can be expected from tidal, river, and wind action. In support of the restoration program, the USGS provides technical assistance to PRNS in the form of a scientific study focusing on understanding the physical processes that could affect the Giacomini wetland restoration. The study will yield scientific products that NPS resource managers can use in designing and implementing the restoration project. Research elements include: - Develop a Geodetic Control Network (GCN) throughout PRNS that meets the standards specified National Geodetic Survey data base (the NGS "Bluebook"). The grid will allow this and future studies to be conducted to a precision commensurate with the expressed goals of PRNS. The survey will consist of three steps: (1) verify existing GPS control monuments in the area; (2) tie control monuments in the study areas to the GPS control monuments; and (3) establish NAVD88 elevations using a digital electronic level. - Conduct a detailed survey of the Giacomini site to produce an accurate topographic map of the property. The site survey can be coupled with on-site water-level measurements to produce an empirical flooding model. - Measure water level and wind regime at the Giacomini site. The water-level range is critical to determining the wetland types based on the elevation of the dairy land. Water level at Sacramento Landing, in central Tomales Bay, will also be measured for comparison. As of November 2005, we have created a GCN, produced a detailed topographic map of the Giacomini site, and collected approximately three years of water-level and wind data at the Giacomini site and over one year of usable water-level data at the Sacramento Landing pier.

California↗
USGS1994

Stability of submerged slopes on the flanks of the Hawaiian Islands, a simplified approach

Undersea transmission lines and shoreline AC-DC conversion stations and near-shore transmission lines are being considered as part of a system for transporting energy between the Hawaiian Islands. These facilities will need to be designed so that they will not be damaged or destroyed by coastal or undersea landslides. Advanced site surveys and engineering design of these facilities will require detailed site specific analyses, including sediment sampling and laboratory testing of samples, in situ testing of sediment and rock, detailed charting of bathymetry, and two- or three-dimensional numerical analyses of the factors of safety of the slopes against failure from the various possible loading mechanisms. An intermediate approximate approach can be followed that involves gravity and piston cores, laboratory testing and the application of simplified models to determine a seismic angle of repose for actual sediment in the vicinity of the planned facility. An even simpler and more approximate approach involves predictions of angles of repose using classification of the sediment along a proposed route as either a coarse volcaniclastic sand, a calcareous ooze, or a muddy terrigenous sediment. The steepest slope that such a sediment can maintain is the static angle of repose. Sediment may be found on slopes as steep as these, but it must be considered metastable and liable to fail in the event of any disturbance, storm or earthquake. The seismic angle of repose likely governs most slopes on the Hawaiian Ridge. This declivity corresponds to the response of the slope to a continuing seismic environment. As a long history of earthquakes affects the slopes, they gradually flatten to this level. Slopes that exceed or roughly equal this value can be considered at risk to fail during future earthquakes. Seismic and static angles of repose for three sediment types are tabulated in this report.

Hawaii↗
USGS2022

Models combining multiple scales of inference capture hydrologic and climatic drivers of riparian tree distributions

Predicting species geographic distributions is key to managing invasive species, conserving biodiversity, and understanding species' environmental requirements. Species distribution models (SDMs) commonly focus on climatic predictors, but other environmental factors can also be essential, particularly for species with specialized habitats defined by hydrologic, topographic, or edaphic conditions (e.g., riparian, wetland, alpine, coastal, serpentine). Here, we demonstrate a novel approach for capturing strong effects of both hydrologic and climatic predictors in SDMs for riparian plants, by merging analyses targeted at environmental drivers within riparian ecosystems and across the western USA (3.8 × 10 6 km 2 ). We developed presence-background SDMs from five algorithms for three invasive riparian trees ( Tamarix ramossisima / chinensis [saltcedar], Elaeagnus angustifolia [Russian olive], and Ulmus pumila [Siberian elm]) and three native Populus spp. (cottonwoods). We used separate background datasets to develop models with different spatial scales of inference: (1) spatially filtered random points to represent available habitat across the study area and (2) target-group points from Salix (willow) occurrences to represent available riparian habitat. Random-background models captured hydrologic drivers of riparian tree distributions relative to the largely upland western USA, whereas Salix -background models captured climatic drivers within the context of riparian ecosystems. Combining predictions from the two backgrounds identified hydrologically suitable habitats within climatically suitable regions, resulting in fewer false “absences” than either background alone, improving predictions over previous SDMs, and providing more complete information to guide management decisions. Surprisingly, the predicted habitat for U. pumila , a newly recognized riparian invader, was as or more extensive than Populus deltoides / fremontii , T. ramossisima / chinensis , and E. angustifolia , the most common riparian tree complexes in the western USA. Watersheds constituting 20% of U. pumila predicted habitat contained no occurrence records, indicating high risk of future and unrecognized invasions. Combining models from random and ecosystem-specific target-group backgrounds may improve SDMs for species from many specialized habitats, providing a method to link predicted distributions to localized geographic features while capturing broad-scale climatic requirements.

western United States↗
USGS2018

A Holocene record of ocean productivity and upwelling from the northern California continental slope

The Holocene upwelling history of the northern California continental slope is examined using the high-resolution record of TN062-O550 (40.9°N, 124.6°W, 550 m water depth). This 7-m-long marine sediment core spans the last ∼7500 years, and we use it to test the hypothesis that marine productivity in the California Current System (CCS) driven by coastal upwelling has co-varied with Holocene millennial-scale warm intervals. A combination of biogenic sediment concentrations (opal, total organic C, and total N), stable isotopes (organic matter δ 13 C and bulk sedimentary δ 15 N), and key microfossil indicators of upwelling were used to test this hypothesis. The record of biogenic accumulation in TN062-O550 shows considerable Holocene variability despite being located within 50 km of the mouth of the Eel River, which is one of the largest sources of terrigenous sediment to the Northeast Pacific Ocean margin. A key time interval beginning at ∼2900 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP) indicates the onset of modern upwelling in the CCS, and this period also corresponds to the most intense period of upwelling in the last 7500 years. When these results are placed into a regional CCS context during the Holocene, it was found that the timing of upwelling intensification at TN062-O550 corresponds closely to that seen at nearby ODP Site 1019, as well as in the Santa Barbara Basin of southern California. Other CCS records with less refined age control show similar results, which suggest late Holocene upwelling intensification may be synchronous throughout the CCS. Based on the strong correspondence between the alkenone sea surface temperature record at ODP Site 1019 and the onset of late Holocene upwelling in northern California, we suggest that CCS warming may be conducive to upwelling intensification, though future changes are unclear as the mechanisms forcing SST variability may differ.

California↗
USGS2024

Insights into glendonite formation from the upper Oligocene Sagavanirktok Formation, North Slope, Alaska

The type locality for the upper Oligocene Nuwok Member of the Sagavanirktok Formation (Carter Creek, North Slope, Alaska, USA) contains abundant occurrence of glendonite, a pseudomorph after the calcium carbonate mineral ikaite, which typically forms in the shallow subsurface of cold marine sediments. The region during the time of Nuwok Member deposition was located at a high latitude, similar to today, and the study site is characterized by sands and silty muds interpreted here to have been deposited in coastal and shelfal marine environments. Isotopic (Sr) and biostratigraphic (foraminifera) evidence presented here refine the depositional age of the outcrop to approximately 24 Ma. Glendonites occur in two basic forms: radial clusters, commonly centered around a single larger primary crystal ( approx. 10 cm; Type A) and larger single blades generally without accessory crystals (approx. 15–25 cm; Type B). Microscopic examination revealed a sequence of multiple types of replacive calcite that formed as a direct result of ikaite transformation: Type 1 rhombohedral crystals characterized by microporous and inclusion-rich cores and concentric zones, Type 2A, composed of clear calcite that overgrew and augmented Type 1 crystals, and inclusion-rich, microcrystalline Type 2B, which formed a matrix surrounding the rhombs and commonly dominates the outer rims of glendonite specimens. Type 3 calcite precipitated as fibrous, botryoidal epitaxial cement atop previous phases and is not ikaite-derived. These phases are distributed in similar ways in all examined specimens and are consistent with several previously described glendonite occurrences around the world, despite differing diagenetic and geologic histories. Stable isotope evidence (δ13C and δ18O) suggests sourcing of glendonite carbon from both organic and methanogenic sources. Glendonites of the Nuwok Member can therefore assist in the determination of a more comprehensive ikaite transformation model, improving our understanding of glendonite formation and the sedimentological and environmental context of their occurrence. Oligocene glendonites are uncommon globally; the well-preserved occurrence described here can allow future studies to better reconstruct Arctic environmental conditions and paleoclimates during this time.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

Map Showing Seacliff Response to Climatic and Seismic Events, Seabright Beach, Santa Cruz County, California

Introduction The coastal cliffs along much of the central California coast are actively retreating. Large storms and periodic earthquakes are responsible for most of the documented sea cliff slope failures. Long-term average erosion rates calculated for this section of coast do not provide the spatial or temporal data resolution necessary to identify the processes responsible for retreat of the sea cliffs where episodic retreat threatens homes and community infrastructure. Research suggests that more erosion occurs along the California coast over a short time scale, during periods of severe storms or seismic activity, than occurs during decades of normal weather or seismic quiescence. This is the third map in a series of maps prepared to document the processes of short-term sea cliff retreat through the identification of slope failure styles, spatial variability of failures, and temporal variation in retreat amounts in an area that has been identified as an erosion hotspot. This map presents sea cliff failure and retreat data from the Seabright Beach section, California, which is located on the east side of Santa Cruz along the northern Monterey Bay coast. The data presented in this map series provide high-resolution spatial and temporal information on the location, amount, and processes of sea cliff retreat in Santa Cruz, California. These data show the response of the sea cliffs to both large magnitude earthquakes and severe climatic events such as El Ni?os; this information may prove useful in predicting the future response of the cliffs to events of similar magnitude. The map data can also be incorporated into Global Information System (GIS) for use by researchers and community planners. During this study we developed a method for investigating short-term processes of sea cliff evolution using rectified photographic stereo models. This method allows us to document the linear extent of cliff failures, the spatial and temporal relationship between failures, and the type or style of slope failure. Seabright Beach extends 0.9 km from San Lorenzo Point on the west to the Santa Cruz Yacht Harbor on the east. The cliffs at Seabright Beach are completely protected from wave attack by a wide beach. The protective beach is a relatively recent feature that formed after the emplacement of the Santa Cruz Yacht Harbor jetty in 1963-1964. Prior to the completion of the jetty, the cliffs at Seabright Beach were subject to daily wave attack. The data in this study are post-jetty construction; therefore, the sea cliff failures and cliff retreat are the result of nonmarine processes (rainfall, groundwater and seismic shaking). The 8 to 15 m high cliffs at Seabright Beach are composed of the Miocene to Pliocene Purisima Formation, which is overlain by unconsolidated Pleistocene terrace deposits. The relative thickness of these units varies along the length of the cliff. At the west end of Seabright Beach, including San Lorenzo Point, nearly the entire cliff section is composed of Purisima Formation and is capped by less than 2 m of terrace deposits. In this exposure, the Purisima Formation is a moderately weathered, moderately indurated massive sandstone. The height of the cliffs and the thickness of the Purisima Formation decrease to the east. In the cliffs immediately adjacent to the harbor, the entire exposure is composed of terrace deposits. Toe-slope debris and wind-blown sand form a nearly continuous fan along the cliff base that obscure the lower portion of the cliff. This study documents the impacts of earthquakes and large storms to the sea cliffs in the Seabright Beach section. The first event is the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, a M7.1 earthquake that caused widespread damage to the area stretching from Santa Cruz to the San Francisco Bay. The epicenter of the earthquake was located in the Santa Cruz Mountains, approximately 9 km inland from the coast. Extensive block and debris falls, induced by the seismic shaking, occ

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗
USGS2021

Identifying information gaps in predicting winter foraging habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon

The Gulf Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi is an anadromous species that inhabits Gulf of Mexico coastal waters from Louisiana to Florida and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Seasonal cues (e.g., freshwater discharge) determine the timing of spawning and migration and may influence the availability of critical habitat during winter months in six estuaries. Large information gaps, especially related to critical estuarine habitat for juveniles, hinder recovery efforts to protect these habitats and assess risks from emerging threats. Using Apalachicola Bay, Florida, as a model system, we developed and analyzed a preliminary Bayesian network model so that we could identify knowledge gaps (i.e., where expert knowledge was lacking) and data gaps (i.e., where data were unavailable) that limit the ability to assess the quantity of critical estuarine habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon. The model hypothesized habitat availability per winter month in estuarine habitat under alternative scenarios of river discharge and length of the winter foraging season. A search for geospatial data sets revealed that the largest gap involved salinity, temperature, and oxygen (i.e., water condition) monitoring data, with data available only for Apalachicola Bay. For the Apalachicola Bay model, data gaps prevented the development of 53% of water condition geospatial data sets and a sensitivity analysis showed that water condition data most limited the ability to predict habitat availability. Expert knowledge was low, and conditional certainty scores showed that the relationships with the lowest certainty were abiotic suitability and habitat availability. Reducing information gaps could aid the development of a model that is appropriate for informing management. Future efforts could prioritize the expansion of water monitoring within critical habitat estuaries and predicting abiotic suitability and habitat availability. Bayesian network models can easily incorporate prior and new information for complex systems. Thus, our model could be updated as future research and monitoring efforts close these information gaps.

Florida↗
USGS2019

A pragmatic approach for comparing species distribution models to increasing confidence in managing piping plover habitat

Conservation management often requires decision-making without perfect knowledge of the at-risk species or ecosystem. Species distribution models (SDMs) are useful but largely under-utilized due to model uncertainty. We provide a case study that utilizes an ensemble modeling approach of two independently derived SDMs to explicitly address common modeling impediments and to directly inform conservation decision-making for piping plovers in a heavily populated mid-Atlantic (USA) coastal zone. We summarized previously published Bayesian network and maximum entropy modeling approaches to highlight similarities and differences in model structure, and we compared the relative importance of predictors used. Despite marked differences in analytical approach, the relative importance of factors driving nest-site selection was consistent. Comparison of raw suitability scores revealed high dissimilarity between modeling approaches, but models demonstrated considerable agreement when comparing a binary (suitable/unsuitable) measure of suitability. Instances of model consensus (i.e., overlapping areas of predicted piping plover nesting habitat between models) provide a stronger ‘signal’ in model results, reducing uncertainty related to biases or errors associated with either model. We tested model accuracy using a common dataset of plover nests initiated within the focal areas between 2013 and 2015, and we examined congruency in model outputs. Nearly 90% of all nests occurred in areas predicted suitable by at least one model, and at least 33% of the total nests were predicted in areas suitable by both. Because models predominantly agreed on what drives piping plover nest-site selection, areas predicted suitable by a single model should not be discounted. This case study demonstrates how models can effectively inform conservation planning by explicitly identifying the management objective, presenting robust evidence to allow managers to evaluate outcomes of alternative management decisions, and clearly communicating results that address real-world conservation problems. The results presented here can greatly increase the piping plover management community’s ability to prioritize candidate sites for future protection, manage existing nesting habitat appropriately, and make a compelling case for conservation actions against competing land use objectives.

New Jersey, New York↗
USGS2016

The effects of landscape position on plant species density: Evidence of past environmental effects in a coastal wetland

Here we propose that an important cause of variation in species density may be prior environmental conditions that continue to influence current patterns. In this paper we investigated the degree to which species density varies with location within the landscape, independent of contemporaneous environmental conditions. The area studied was a coastal marsh landscape subject to periodic storm events. To evaluate the impact of historical effects, it was assumed that the landscape position of a plot relative to the river's mouth ('distance from sea') and to the edge of a stream channel ('distance from shore') would correlate with the impact of prior storm events, an assumption supported by previous studies. To evaluate the importance of spatial location on species density, data were collected from five sites located at increasing distances from the river's mouth along the Middle Pearl River in Louisiana. At each site, plots were established systematically along transects perpendicular to the shoreline. For each of the 175 Plots, we measured elevation, soil salinity, percent of plot recently disturbed, percent of sunlight captured by the plant canopy (as a measure of plant abundance), and plant species density. Structural equation analysis ascertained the degree to which landscape position variables explained variation in species density that could not be explained by current environmental indicators. Without considering landscape variables, 54% of the variation in species density could be explained by the effects of salinity, flooding, and plant abundance. When landscape variables were included, distance from shore was unimportant but distance from sea explained an additional 12% of the variance in species density (R2 of final model = 66%). Based on these results it appears that at least some of the otherwise unexplained variation in species density can be attributed to landscape position, and presumably previous storm events. We suggest that future studies may gain additional insight into the factors controlling current patterns of species density by examining the effects of position within the landscape.

Écoscience↗
USGS2007

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires. Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies. Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning sessions was to determine the external organizations’ needs for mitigation efforts before potential natural hazard events, and response efforts during and after the event. On the basis of input from workshop participants, four priority areas were identified for future research to address. They are (1) helping decision makers design planning scenarios, (2) improving upon the mapping of multiple hazards in urban areas, (3) providing real-time information from monitoring networks, and (4) integrating information in a risk and decision-making analysis. Towards this end, short-term and out-year goals have been outlined with the priorities in mind. First-year goals are (1) to engage the user community to establish the structures and processes for communications and interactions, (2) to develop a program to create scenarios of anticipated disasters, beginning in the first year with a scenario of a southern San Andreas earthquake that triggers secondary hazards, (3) to compile existing datasets of geospatial data, and (4) to target research efforts to support more complete and robust products in future years. Both the first-year and out-year goals have been formulated around a working-group structure that builds on existing research strengths within the USGS. The project is intended to demonstrate how developments in methodology and products can lead to improvement in our management of natural hazards in an urban environment for application across the Nation.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

We synthesized an expert review of climate change implications for hydroecological and terrestrial ecological systems in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Our synthesis is based on an analysis of projected temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stratified by eight biogeoclimatic provinces and three vegetation zones. Five IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are the basis for projections of mean annual temperature increasing from a current average (1961–1990) of 3.2 °C to 4.9–6.9 °C (5 GCM range; RCP4.5 scenario) or 6.4–8.7 °C (RCP8.5), mean annual precipitation increasing from 3130 mm to 3210–3400 mm (3–9 % increase) or 3320–3690 mm (6–18 % increase), and total precipitation as snow decreasing from 1200 mm to 940–720 mm (22–40 % decrease) or 720–500 mm (40–58 % decrease) by the 2080s (2071–2100; 30-year normal period). These projected changes are anticipated to result in a cascade of ecosystem-level effects including: increased frequency of flooding and rain-on-snow events; an elevated snowline and reduced snowpack; changes in the timing and magnitude of stream flow, freshwater thermal regimes, and riverine nutrient exports; shrinking alpine habitats; altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of lowland and subalpine forest types; shifts in suitable habitat boundaries for vegetation and wildlife communities; adverse effects on species with rare ecological niches or limited dispersibility; and shifts in anadromous salmon distribution and productivity. Our collaborative synthesis of potential impacts highlights the coupling of social and ecological systems that characterize the region as well as a number of major information gaps to help guide assessments of future conditions and adaptive capacity.

Alaska, British Columbia↗
USGS2011

Geophysical data collected from the St. Clair River between Michigan and Ontario, Canada (2008-016-FA)

In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center (WHCMSC), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conducted a geophysical and sampling survey of the riverbed of the Upper St. Clair River between Port Huron, Mich., and Sarnia, Ontario, Canada. The objectives were to define the Quaternary geologic framework of the riverbed of the St. Clair River to evaluate the relationship between morphologic change of the riverbed and underlying stratigraphy. This report presents the geophysical and sample data collected from the St. Clair River, May 29-June 6, 2008, as part of the International Upper Great Lakes Study, a 5-year project funded by the International Joint Commission of the United States and Canada to examine whether physical changes in the St. Clair River are affecting water levels within upper Great Lakes, to assess regulation plans for outflows from Lake Superior, and to examine the potential effect of climate change on the Great Lakes water levels (http://www.iugls.org). This document makes available the data that were used in a separate report, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2009-1137, which detailed the interpretations of the Quaternary geologic framework of the region. This report includes a description of the high-resolution acoustic and sediment-sampling systems that were used to map the morphology, surficial sediment distribution, and underlying geology of the Upper St. Clair River during USGS field activity 2008-016-FA (http://quashnet.er.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/datasource/public_ds_info.pl?fa=2008-016-FA). Video and photographs of the riverbed were also collected and are included in this data release. Future analyses will be focused on substrate erosion and its effects on river-channel morphology and geometry. Ultimately, the International Upper Great Lakes Study will attempt to determine where physical changes in the St. Clair River affect water flow and, subsequently, water levels in the Upper Great Lakes.

Open-File Report↗