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At least 1,063 records · Page 59Linked to original sources
USGS1999

Reassessment of ice-age cooling of the tropical ocean and atmosphere

The CLIMAP project's reconstruction of past sea surface temperature inferred limited ice-age cooling in the tropical oceans. This conclusion has been controversial, however, because of the greater cooling indicated by other terrestrial and ocean proxy data. A new faunal sea surface temperature reconstruction, calibrated using the variation of foraminiferal species through time, better represents ice-age faunal assemblages and so reveals greater cooling than CLIMAP in the equatorial current systems of the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic oceans. Here we explore the climatic implications of this revised sea surface temperature field for the Last Glacial Maximum using an atmospheric general circulation model. Relative to model results obtained using CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, the cooler equatorial oceans modify seasonal air temperatures by 1-2??C or more across parts of South America, Africa and southeast Asia and cause attendant changes in regional moisture patterns. In our simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum, the Amazon lowlands, for example, are cooler and drier, whereas the Andean highlands are cooler and wetter than the control simulation. Our results may help to resolve some of the apparent disagreements between oceanic and continental proxy climate data. Moreover, they suggest a wind-related mechanism for enhancing the export of water vapour from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific oceans, which may link variations in deep-water production and high-latitude climate changes to equatorial sea surface temperatures.

Nature↗
USGS2018

The 2015 landslide and tsunami in Taan Fiord, Alaska

Glacial retreat in recent decades has exposed unstable slopes and allowed deep water to extend beneath some of those slopes. Slope failure at the terminus of Tyndall Glacier on 17 October 2015 sent 180 million tons of rock into Taan Fiord, Alaska. The resulting tsunami reached elevations as high as 193 m, one of the highest tsunami runups ever documented worldwide. Precursory deformation began decades before failure, and the event left a distinct sedimentary record, showing that geologic evidence can help understand past occurrences of similar events, and might provide forewarning. The event was detected within hours through automated seismological techniques, which also estimated the mass and direction of the slide - all of which were later confirmed by remote sensing. Our field observations provide a benchmark for modeling landslide and tsunami hazards. Inverse and forward modeling can provide the framework of a detailed understanding of the geologic and hazards implications of similar events. Our results call attention to an indirect effect of climate change that is increasing the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards near glaciated mountains.

Alaska↗
USGS2009

Spatially referenced statistical assessment of dissolved-solids load sources and transport in streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) discharges more than 6 million tons of dissolved solids annually, about 40 to 45 percent of which are attributed to agricultural activities. The U.S. Department of the Interior estimates economic damages related to salinity in excess of $330 million annually in the Colorado River Basin. Salinity in the UCRB, as measured by dissolved-solids load and concentration, has been studied extensively during the past century. Over this period, a solid conceptual understanding of the sources and transport mechanisms of dissolved solids in the basin has been developed. This conceptual understanding was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) surface-water quality model to examine statistically the dissolved-solids supply and transport within the UCRB. Geologic and agricultural sources of dissolved solids in the UCRB were defined and represented in the model. On the basis of climatic and hydrologic conditions along with data availability, water year 1991 was selected for examination with SPARROW. Dissolved-solids loads for 218 monitoring sites were used to calibrate a dissolved-solids SPARROW model for the UCRB. The calibrated model generally captures the transport mechanisms that deliver dissolved solids to streams of the UCRB as evidenced by R2 and yield R2 values of 0.98 and 0.71, respectively. Model prediction error is approximated at 51 percent. Model results indicate that of the seven geologic source groups, the high-yield sedimentary Mesozoic rocks have the largest yield of dissolved solids, about 41.9 tons per square mile (tons/mi2). Irrigated sedimentary-clastic Mesozoic lands have an estimated yield of 1,180 tons/mi2, and irrigated sedimentary-clastic Tertiary lands have an estimated yield of 662 tons/mi2. Coefficients estimated for the seven landscape transport characteristics seem to agree well with the conceptual understanding of the role they play in the delivery of dissolved solids to streams in the UCRB. Predictions of dissolved-solids loads were generated for more than 10,000 stream reaches of the stream network defined in the UCRB. From these estimates, the downstream accumulation of dissolved solids, including natural and agricultural components, were examined in selected rivers. Contributions from each of the 11 dissolved-solids sources were also examined at select locations in the Grand, Green, and San Juan Divisions of the UCRB. At the downstream boundary of the UCRB, the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona, monitoring site, the dissolved-solids contribution of irrigated agricultural lands and natural sources were about 45 and 57 percent, respectively. Finally, model predictions, including the contributions of natural and agricultural sources for selected locations in the UCRB, were compared with results from two previous studies.

Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomin↗
USGS2021

Ignitions explain more than climate or weather in driving Santa Ana Wind fires

Autumn and winter Santa Ana wind (SAW)–driven wildfires play a substantial role in area burned and societal losses in southern California. Temperature during the event and antecedent precipitation in the week or month prior play a minor role in determining area burned. Burning is dependent on wind intensity and number of human-ignited fires. Over 75% of all SAW events generate no fires; rather, fires during a SAW event are dependent on a fire being ignited. Models explained 40 to 50% of area burned, with number of ignitions being the strongest variable. One hundred percent of SAW fires were human caused, and in the past decade, powerline failures have been the dominant cause. Future fire losses can be reduced by greater emphasis on maintenance of utility lines and attention to planning urban growth in ways that reduce the potential for powerline ignitions.

California↗
USGS1995

Status of ground-water resources at U.S. Navy Support Facility, Diego Garcia; summary of hydrologic and climatic data through September 1993

This report contains hydrologic and climatic data that describe the status of ground-water resources at U.S. Navy Support Facility, Diego Garcia. Data are presented through September 1993, one month into the annual wet season. At the end of September 1993, the chloride concentration of the composite water supply was 66 milligrams per liter, well below the 250 milligrams per liter secondary drinking water standard established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Most of the production wells appeared to be operating at levels consistent with past operations. Several wells at Air Operations remain out of service while they are being used to hydraulically divert the nearby fuel spill. Rainfall thus far in 1993 is 8 percent below the mean annual rainfall of 106 inches. This follows a year when rainfall was 12 percent below the mean annual rainfall. Withdrawal has averaged 856,000 gallons per day during 1993, a decrease from the 1992 average of 936,000 gallons per day. The chloride concentration of pumped water rose during the current quarter (July through September 1993) in most areas, coincident with the annual dry season (March through August). This continues a general trend of increasing chloride concentration that has persisted for more than a year, beginning in the 1992 dry season. Chloride concentration rose progressively during the current quarter in monitoring wells at Cantonment and Air Operations. Chloride concentrations in the deeper monitoring wells have generally been increasing since 1992. A fuel spill at Air Operations caused the shutdown of ten wells in May 1991. Four of the wells have resumed pumping to the water supply, but water from the remaining six wells is being used to hydraulically contain and divert fuel migration.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1984

Carbonate and organic-carbon cycles and the history of upwelling at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 532, Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic Ocean

Detailed carbonate and organic-carbon stratigraphies were constructed from samples collected every 20 cm in a 250-m hydraulic piston core recovered at DSDP Site 532 on Walvis Ridge. This sampling interval represents about one sample every 5000 yr., based on sediment accumulation rates calculated from nannofossil biostratigraphic zones. All samples were analyzed for percent CaCO 3 , resulting in a detailed carbonate stratigraphy for the past 5.0 m.y. The samples for the top 110 m of section were also analyzed for organic carbon in order to construct a detailed organiccarbon stratigraphy for the last 2.5 m.y. The recovered section has distinct dark-light color cycles with average periodicities of 55, 58, and 30 k.y. for the Quaternary, upper Pliocene, and lower Pliocene, respectively. Periodicities of carbonate cycles are similar to the color cycles; most carbonate minima correspond to the dark parts of color cycles. The average periodicity for carbonate cycles is about 36 k.y. Darker parts of color cycles usually contain higher concentrations of organic carbon, but the organic-carbon record does not follow the cyclicity of the color cycles in detail, at least for the last 2.5 m.y. Organic-carbon cycles have an average periodicity of about 34 k.y. for the Quaternary and upper Pliocene. The cycles of CaCO 3 and color have periodicities similar to those reported from carbonate stratigraphies from the northeast Atlantic, Caribbean, and eastern equatorial Pacific. The carbonate cycles at Site 532 are the result of external forcing, probably related to global climate, that affected fluctuations in both sediment supply from the African continental margin and productivity of siliceous organisms. The organic-carbon cycles have similar periodicities and similar changes in periodicities to those of the CaCO 3 cycles. Semiquantitative estimates of diatom abundance from smear slides and concentrations of biogenic SiO 2 calculated from chemical analyses suggest that upwelling at Site 532 was minor until about 3 m.y. ago. The Benguela-Current upwelling system either began at that time or, more likely, migrated into the area of Site 532, where it prevailed until some time between about 1.2 and 0.5 m.y. ago. The increase and decline of upwelling in the area of Site 532, however, did not disturb the trend of cyclicities of carbonate and organic carbon. The latest change in conditions at Site 532 was an increase in intensity of bottom currents during the past 0.5 m.y. that winnowed nannofossils, diatoms, and clay and left a lag deposit represented by a foraminifer-rich fades

Initial Reports of the D.S.D.P.↗
USGS2018

Vegetation influences on infiltration in Hawaiian soils

Changes in vegetation communities caused by removing trees, introducing grazing ungulates, and replacing native plants with invasive species have substantially altered soil infiltration processes and rates in Hawaii. These changes directly impact run-off, erosion, plant-available water, and aquifer recharge. We hypothesize that broad vegetation communities can be characterized by distributions of field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs). We used 290 measurements of Kfs calculated from infiltration tests from 5 of the Hawaiian Islands to show this effect. We classified the data using 3 broad ecosystem categories: grasses, trees and shrubs, and bare soil. The soils of each site have coevolved with past and present ecological communities without significant mechanical disturbance by agriculture or urban development. Geometric mean values Kfs are 203 mm/hr for soils hosting trees and shrubs, 50 mm/hr for grasses, and 13 mm/hr for bare soil. Differences are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. These examples show that it is feasible to make maps of relative Kfs based on field and ecosystem data. These ecosystem trends can be used to estimate ongoing changes to run-off and recharge from climate and land use change. Greater Kfs for ecosystems with primarily trees and shrubs suggests that management decisions concerning reforestation or other changes of vegetation can have substantial hydrologic impacts.

Hawaii↗
USGS2016

Defining the next generation modeling of coastal ecotone dynamics in response to global change

Coastal ecosystems are especially vulnerable to global change; e.g., sea level rise (SLR) and extreme events. Over the past century, global change has resulted in salt-tolerant (halophytic) plant species migrating into upland salt-intolerant (glycophytic) dominated habitats along major rivers and large wetland expanses along the coast. While habitat transitions can be abrupt, modeling the specific drivers of abrupt change between halophytic and glycophytic vegetation is not a simple task. Correlative studies, which dominate the literature, are unlikely to establish ultimate causation for habitat shifts, and do not generate strong predictive capacity for coastal land managers and climate change adaptation exercises. In this paper, we first review possible drivers of ecotone shifts for coastal wetlands, our understanding of which has expanded rapidly in recent years. Any exogenous factor that increases growth or establishment of halophytic species will favor the ecotone boundary moving upslope. However, internal feedbacks between vegetation and the environment, through which vegetation modifies the local microhabitat (e.g., by changing salinity or surface elevation), can either help the system become resilient to future changes or strengthen ecotone migration. Following this idea, we review a succession of models that have provided progressively better insight into the relative importance of internal positive feedbacks versus external environmental factors. We end with developing a theoretical model to show that both abrupt environmental gradients and internal positive feedbacks can generate the sharp ecotonal boundaries that we commonly see, and we demonstrate that the responses to gradual global change (e.g., SLR) can be quite diverse.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2021

Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave

Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass–fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

PNAS↗
USGS1988

Geohydrology, water quality, and preliminary simulations of ground-water flow of the alluvial aquifer in the upper Black Squirrel Creek basin, El Paso County, Colorado

The upper Black Squirrel Creek basin in eastern El Paso County, Colorado, is underlain by an alluvial aquifer and four bedrock aquifers. The climate of the area is semiarid, and streamflow is irregular. The alluvial aquifer has supplied water to wells since the late 1800's when ranchers first pumped water from shallow wells to grow grass hay for livestock. Ground-water pumpage from the alluvial aquifer has increased since the mid-1950's, and water-level declines have been substantial; the bedrock aquifers virtually are undeveloped. Ground-water pumpage for domestic, stock, agricultural, and municipal uses has exceeded recharge for the past 25 years. The present extent of the effect of pumpage on the alluvial aquifer was evaluated, and a ground-water flow model was used to simulate the future effect of continued pumpage on the aquifer. Measured water-level declines from 1974 through 1984 were as much as 30 feet in an area north of Ellicott, Colorado. On the basis of the simulations, water-level declines from October 1984 to April 1999 north of Ellicott might be as much as 20 to 30 feet and as much as 1 to 10 feet in most of the aquifer. Flow from the bedrock aquifers to the alluvial aquifer may account for a substantial volume of the recharge to the alluvial aquifer. The ground-water flow models provided a means of evaluating the importance of ground-water evapotranspiration at various stages of aquifer development. Simulated ground-water evapotranspiration decreased from 1949 to 1984; prior to 1950 ground-water evapotranspiration was about 43.5 percent of the total outflow, but in 1984 it was less than 3 percent. Thirty-six ground-water samples were collected during 1984. Chemical analyses indicated that concentrations of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen generally were large. Samples from 5 of the 36 wells had concentrations of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen that exceeded drinking-water standards; these concentrations could pose a health threat toinfants. Water from the alluvial aquifer generally is of suitable quality forother uses.

Colorado↗
USGS2009

Endogenic carbonate sedimentation in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho, over the last two glacial-interglacial cycles

Sediments deposited over the past 220,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho, are predominantly calcareous silty clay, with calcite as the dominant carbonate mineral. The abundance of siliciclastic sediment indicates that the Bear River usually was connected to Bear Lake. However, three marl intervals containing more than 50% CaCO 3 were deposited during the Holocene and the last two interglacial intervals, equivalent to marine oxygen isotope stages (MIS) 5 and 7, indicating times when the Bear River was not connected to the lake. Aragonite is the dominant mineral in two of these three high-carbonate intervals. The high-carbonate, aragonitic intervals coincide with warm interglacial continental climates and warm Pacific sea-surface temperatures. Aragonite also is the dominant mineral in a carbonate-cemented microbialite mound that formed in the southwestern part of the lake over the last several thousand years. The history of carbonate sedimentation in Bear Lake is documented through the study of isotopic ratios of oxygen, carbon, and strontium, organic carbon content, CaCO 3 content, X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and HCl-leach chemistry on samples from sediment traps, gravity cores, piston cores, drill cores, and microbialites. Sediment-trap studies show that the carbonate mineral that precipitates in the surface waters of the lake today is high-Mg calcite. The lake began to precipitate high-Mg calcite sometime in the mid-twentieth century after the artificial diversion of Bear River into Bear Lake that began in 1911. This diversion drastically reduced the salinity and Mg 2+ :Ca 2+ of the lake water and changed the primary carbonate precipitate from aragonite to high-Mg calcite. However, sediment-trap and core studies show that aragonite is the dominant mineral accumulating on the lake floor today, even though it is not precipitating in surface waters. The isotopic studies show that this aragonite is derived from reworking and redistribution of shallow-water sediment that is at least 50 yr old, and probably older. Apparently, the microbialite mound also stopped forming aragonite cement sometime after Bear River diversion. Because of reworking of old aragonite, the bulk mineralogy of carbonate in bottom sediments has not changed very much since the diversion. However, the diversion is marked by very distinct changes in the chemical and isotopic composition of the bulk carbonate. After the last glacial interval (LGI), a large amount of endogenic carbonate began to precipitate in Bear Lake when the Pacific moisture that filled the large pluvial lakes of the Great Basin during the LGI diminished, and Bear River apparently abandoned Bear Lake. At first, the carbonate that formed was low-Mg calcite, but ???11,000 years ago, salinity and Mg 2+ :Ca 2+ thresholds must have been crossed because the amount of aragonite gradually increased. Aragonite is the dominant carbonate mineral that has accumulated in the lake for the past 7000 years, with the addition of high-Mg calcite after the diversion of Bear River into the lake at the beginning of the twentieth century. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Special Paper of the Geological Society of America↗
USGS2014

Ecological change on California's Channel Islands from the Pleistocene to the Anthropocene

Historical ecology is becoming an important focus in conservation biology and offers a promising tool to help guide ecosystem management. Here, we integrate data from multiple disciplines to illuminate the past, present, and future of biodiversity on California's Channel Islands, an archipelago that has undergone a wide range of land-use and ecological changes. Our analysis spans approximately 20,000 years, from before human occupation and through Native American hunter–gatherers, commercial ranchers and fishers, the US military, and other land managers. We demonstrate how long-term, interdisciplinary research provides insight into conservation decisions, such as setting ecosystem restoration goals, preserving rare and endemic taxa, and reducing the impacts of climate change on natural and cultural resources. We illustrate the importance of historical perspectives for understanding modern patterns and ecological change and present an approach that can be applied generally in conservation management planning.

California↗
USGS2010

Vegetation response to early holocene warming as an analog for current and future changes: Special section

Temperatures in southwestern North America are projected to increase 3.5-4 ??C over the next 60-90 years. This will precipitate ecological shifts as the ranges of species change in response to new climates. During this shift, rapid-colonizing species should increase, whereas slow-colonizing species will at first decrease, but eventually become reestablished in their new range. This successional process has been estimated to require from 100 to over 300 years in small areas, under a stable climate, with a nearby seed source. How much longer will it require on a continental scale, under a changing climate, without a nearby seed source? I considered this question through an examination of the response of fossil plant assemblages from the Grand Canyon, Arizona, to the most recent rapid warming of similar magnitude that occurred at the start of the Holocene, 11,700 years ago. At that time, temperatures in southwestern North America increased about 4 ??C over less than a century. Grand Canyon plant species responded at different rates to this warming climate. Early-successional species rapidly increased, whereas late-successional species decreased. This shift persisted throughout the next 2700 years. I found two earlier, less-extreme species shifts following rapid warming events around 14,700 and 16,800 years ago. Late-successional species predominated only after 4000 years or more of relatively stable temperature. These results suggest the potential magnitude, duration, and nature of future ecological changes and have implications for conservation plans, especially those incorporating equilibrium assumptions or reconstituting past conditions. When these concepts are extended to include the most rapid early-successional colonizers, they imply that the recent increases in invasive exotics may be only the most noticeable part of a new resurgence of early-successional vegetation. Additionally, my results challenge the reliability of models of future vegetation and carbon balance that project conditions on the basis of assumptions of equilibrium within only a century. ?? 2009 Society for Conservation Biology.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2017

Historical analysis of riparian vegetation change in response to shifting management objectives on the Middle Rio Grande

Riparian ecosystems are valuable to the ecological and human communities that depend on them. Over the past century, they have been subject to shifting management practices to maximize human use and ecosystem services, creating a complex relationship between water policy, management, and the natural ecosystem. This has necessitated research on the spatial and temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation change. The San Acacia Reach of the Middle Rio Grande has experienced multiple management and river flow fluctuations, resulting in threats to its riparian and aquatic ecosystems. This research uses remote sensing data, GIS, a review of management decisions, and an assessment of climate to both quantify how riparian vegetation has been altered over time and provide interpretations of the relationships between riparian change and shifting climate and management objectives. This research focused on four management phases from 1935 to 2014, each highlighting different management practices and climate-driven river patterns, providing unique opportunities to observe a direct relationship between river management, climate, and riparian response. Overall, we believe that management practices coupled with reduced surface river-flows with limited overbank flooding influenced the compositional and spatial patterns of vegetation, including possibly increasing non-native vegetation coverage. However, recent restoration efforts have begun to reduce non-native vegetation coverage.

New Mexico↗
USGS1995

Continental drilling for paleoclimatic records: Recommendations from an international workshop

The Workshop, entitled "Continental Drilling for Paleoclimate Records", was sponsored by the Past Global Changes (PAGES) Project, a core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and by the GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam, Germany, in conjunction with the International Continental Drilling Programme (ICDP). The impetus for the meeting was the need for long continental paleoclimate records that will fill gaps left by the marine and ice-core records and provide information on time and spatial scales that are relevant to human activities. Further impetus came from a perceived need to balance the forecasts and reconstructions of climate models with information on actual behavior of the climate system on the continents. The meeting was organized by Steven M. Colman, Suzanne A.G. Leroy, and Jörg F.W. Negendank and was held at the GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam, Germany, June 30-July 2, 1995. Because the Workshop was primarily a working meeting, a relatively small number of participants were invited (Appendix 3). Leaders of the PAGES Pole-Equator-Pole (PEP) transects and existing large-lake drilling programs, along with a mixture of technical experts, were the primary group of attendees.

Report↗
USGS2012

Active tectonic and magmatic processes beneath Long Valley Caldera, eastern California: An overview

Geological, chronological, and structural studies of the Long Valley-Mono/Inyo Craters area document a long history of related volcanic eruptions and earthquakes controlled by regional extensional tectonics of the Basin and Range province. This activity has persisted for hundreds of thousands of years and is likely to continue. The Long Valley magma chamber had a volume approaching 3000 km 3 prior to its climatic caldera-forming eruption 0.7 m.y. ago but has been reduced to less than a third of this volume by cooling, eruption, and crystallization. Seismic evidence indicates that the main mass of the present Long Valley magma chamber is about 10 km in diameter and that its roof is 8–10 km deep with smaller cupolas as shallow as 4–5 km. Although a chamber of this size is probably capable of producing an eruption approaching 30 km 3 of lava, the record over the past 0.5 m.y. suggests that eruptions of 1 km 3 or less are far more likely. Models proposed for the current ground uplift and seismicity within the caldera require inflation of 0.1–0.2 km 3 by additional magma since mid-1979, and some models suggest that inflation was accompanied by injection of a thin dike or dikes (probably of silicic magma) into the ring fracture zone beneath the south moat. Several of the M 5.8–6.2 earthquakes that occurred in the region beginning in 1978 had non-double-couple focal mechanisms. Whether these unusual mechanisms indicate injection of mafic (low-viscosity) magma at midcrustal depths in the Sierra Nevada block south of the caldera remains debatable. Studies of calderas of various ages throughout the world indicate that episodes of unrest are relatively common and do not invariably culminate in eruptions. Although current unrest is concentrated in the south moat of Long Valley caldera, the Inyo/Mono Craters probably hold a greater potential for producing an eruption in the foreseeable future. The Inyo/Mono Craters have erupted at 500-year intervals over the past 2000–3000 years, whereas the Long Valley magma chamber has erupted at about 200,000-year intervals over the past 700,000 years. In either case, a major earthquake near the caldera could strongly influence the course of volcanic activity.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2022

Satellites quantify the spatial extent of cyanobacterial blooms across the United States at multiple scales

Previous studies indicate that cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (cyanoHAB) frequency, extent, and magnitude have increased globally over the past few decades. However, little quantitative capability is available to assess these metrics of cyanoHABs across broad geographic scales and at regular intervals. Here, the spatial extent was quantified from a cyanobacteria algorithm applied to two European Space Agency satellite platforms—the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) onboard Envisat and the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) onboard Sentinel-3. CyanoHAB spatial extent was defined for each geographic area as the percentage of valid satellite pixels that exhibited cyanobacteria above the detection limit of the satellite sensor. This study quantified cyanoHAB spatial extent for over 2,000 large lakes and reservoirs across the contiguous United States (CONUS) during two time periods: 2008–2011 via MERIS and 2017–2020 via OLCI when cloud-, ice-, and snow-free imagery was available. Approximately 56% of resolvable lakes were glaciated, 13% were headwater, isolated, or terminal lakes, and the rest were primarily drainage lakes. Results were summarized at national-, regional-, state-, and lake-scales, where regions were defined as nine climate regions which represent climatically consistent states. As measured by satellite, changes in national cyanoHAB extent did have a strong increase of 6.9% from 2017 to 2020 (|Kendall’s tau (τ)| = 0.56; gamma (γ) = 2.87 years), but had negligible change (|τ| = 0.03) from 2008 to 2011. Two of the nine regions had moderate (0.3 ≤ |τ| < 0.5) increases in spatial extent from 2017 to 2020, and eight of nine regions had negligible (|τ| < 0.2) change from 2008 to 2011. Twelve states had a strong or moderate increase from 2017 to 2020 (|τ| ≥ 0.3), while only one state had a moderate increase and two states had a moderate decrease from 2008 to 2011. A decrease, or no change, in cyanoHAB spatial extent did not indicate a lack of issues related to cyanoHABs. Sensitivity results of randomly omitted daily CONUS scenes confirm that even with reduced data availability during a short four-year temporal assessment, the direction and strength of the changes in spatial extent remained consistent. We present the first set of national maps of lake cyanoHAB spatial extent across CONUS and demonstrate an approach for quantifying past and future changes at multiple spatial scales. Results presented here provide water quality managers information regarding current cyanoHAB spatial extent and quantify rates of change.

Ecological Indicators↗